The potential impact of the COVID-19 response related lockdown on TB incidence and mortality in India

The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence and incidence of TB before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Tamil Nadu, south India.

METHODS

In the present study, the effect of COVID-19 epidemiology on the TB epidemic was assessed by the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered), a compartmental epidemiological model. The model input parameters on compartments of TB and incidence of COVID-19 were collected from the published literature. Based on the data collected, point prevalence and incidence of TB per 100,000 population is calculated with and without COVID-19. A prediction was conducted up to 2025, trend analysis was performed, and a trend chi-square test and chi-square test of independence were used to test the difference between the prevalence with and without COVID-19. R software 2000 (R 4.0.0) was used for analysis.

RESULTS

The TB prevalence without and with COVID-19 decreases from 289 in 2020 to 271 in 2025 and from 289 in 2020 to 269 in 2025, respectively. Similarly, the incidence of TB was decreasing from 144 in 2020 to 135 in 2025 without COVID-19 and 143 in 2020 to 134 in 2025 with COVID-19. Though the TB burden is decreasing over the years, the trend was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). With respect to the district level, the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 is also found to be decreasing over the years. It was also found that the difference in the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19 was not statically significant.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study shows that there was an annual decline of around 2% from 2020 to 2025 in the trend of the prevalence and incidence of TB with and without COVID-19. Overall, there is a reduction, but it was not significant, and there is no significant effect of COVID-19 on TB in Tamil Nadu.

From Alpha to Omicron: How Different Variants of Concern of the SARS-Coronavirus-2 Impacted the World

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is prone to mutations and the generation of genetic variants. Since its first outbreak in 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has continually evolved, resulting in the emergence of several lineages and variants of concern (VOC) that have gained more efficient transmission, severity, and immune evasion properties. The World Health Organization has given these variants names according to the letters of the Greek Alphabet, starting with the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant, which emerged in 2020, followed by the Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variants. This review explores the genetic variation among different VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 and how the emergence of variants made a global impact on the pandemic.

Tuberculosis Notification in Jordan, 2016-2020

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) in Jordan is largely unknown due to the paucity of high-quality data, under-reporting, and a lack of good quality vital registration system. This study aimed to assess the characteristics of TB patients in Jordan, determine the TB notification rate and assess the trend of TB notification in Jordan between 2016 and 2020. Methods: This study analyzed the TB Surveillance data in Jordan for the period 2016-2020. The obtained data included information on age, gender, nationality, marital status, date of symptoms onset and date of diagnosis, and site of TB. Results: During the period 2016-2020, a total of 1711 patients (989 women and 722 men) were diagnosed with and treated for tuberculosis. The mean (SD) age of patients was 30.1 (17.2) years. Almost half of them (48.4%) were Jordanians. The majority of non-Jordanian patients were from Syria, Philippines, and Bangladesh. Two thirds of patients (66.0%) had pulmonary TB and 34.0% had extra-pulmonary TB. Almost half (50.7%) of the patients were diagnosed within one month of the symptoms' onset. The average annual TB notification rate during 2016-2020 was 3.32 per 100,000 pop (4.08 per 100,000 women and 2.64 per 100,000 men). The average annual standardized notification rate was 4.13 per 100,000 pop (4.52 per 100,000 women and 3.52 per 100,000 men). The overall age-standardized notification rate increased from 3.88 per 100,000 pop in 2016 to 4.58 per 100,000 pop in 2019 and declined to 2.46 per 100,000 pop in 2020. The trend in TB notification differed significantly according to gender. While the notification increased in the last three years among women, it decreased significantly among men. Conclusions: While TB notification increased in the last three years among women, it decreased significantly among men. There is a need to ensure that the national TB plans set clear targets for reducing the burden of TB.

The First Differentiated TB Care Model From India: Delays and Predictors of Losses in the Care Cascade

To reduce TB deaths in resource-limited settings, a differentiated care strategy can be used to triage patients with high risk of severe illness (i.e., those with very severe undernutrition, respiratory insufficiency, or inability to stand without support) at diagnosis and refer them for comprehensive assessment and inpatient care. Globally, there are few examples of implementing this type of strategy in routine program settings. Beginning in April 2022, the Indian state of Tamil Nadu implemented a differentiated care strategy called Tamil Nadu-Kasanoi Erappila Thittam (TN-KET) for all adults aged 15 years and older with drug-susceptible TB notified by public facilities. Before evaluating the impact on TB deaths, we sought to understand the retention and delays in the care cascade as well as predictors of losses. During April-June 2022, 14,961 TB patients were notified and 11,599 (78%) were triaged. Of those triaged, 1,509 (13%) were at high risk of severe illness; of these, 1,128 (75%) were comprehensively assessed at a nodal inpatient care facility. Of 993 confirmed as severely ill, 909 (92%) were admitted, with 8% unfavorable admission outcomes (4% deaths). Median admission duration was 4 days. From diagnosis, the median delay in triaging and admission of severely ill patients was 1 day each. Likelihood of triaging decreased for people with extrapulmonary TB, those diagnosed in high-notification districts or teaching hospitals, and those transferred out of district. Predictors of not being comprehensively assessed included: aged 25-34 years, able to stand without support, and diagnosis at a primary or secondary-level facility. Inability to stand without support was a predictor of unfavorable admission outcomes. To conclude, the first quarter of implementation suggests that TN-KET was feasible to implement but could be improved by addressing predictors of losses in the care cascade and increasing admission duration.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Preventive Services and Their Post-Pandemic Recovery Strategies: A Rapid Review of Literature

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted tuberculosis (TB) care and prevention around the world. The aim of this study is to review literature on the impact of COVID-19 on TB preventive services and discuss their policy options during and after the pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid review of scientific literature on the impact of COVID-19 on TB preventive services and their recovery strategies. After conducting a line-by-line open coding, their codes were applied in the descriptive theme building process, which was guided by the End TB strategy. TB preventive measures were selected and classified into five analytical categories: 1) vaccination against TB, 2) detection and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI), 3) screening and diagnostics, 4) active case finding and contact tracing, and 5) surveillance.

RESULTS

We identified 93 articles, of which 65 were research articles. During the pandemic, we observed decrease in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage, TB diagnostic services, case finding activities, and LTBI management. TB case detection was declined, which was not resumed to the pre-pandemic level after loosening the lock-down. Several recommendations were highlighted: 1) secure BCG stocks and its supply chains, 2) consider catch-up activities of routine immunization and LTBI screening, 3) maintain minimal TB health services, infection prevention and control, and surveillance, 4) leverage laboratory capacity and contact tracing mechanisms, 5) consider simultaneous testing for TB and COVID-19, and 6) Incorporate digital health technologies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings and lessons learnt from the pandemic can aid in the development of future national TB control program.

Analysis of the effect of temperature on tuberculosis incidence by distributed lag non-linear model in Kashgar city, China

The aim of this study was to explore the effect of temperature on tuberculosis (TB) incidence using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) from 2017 to 2021 in Kashgar city, the region with higher TB incidence than national levels, and assist public health prevention and control measures. From January 2017 to December 2021, a total of 8730 cases of TB were reported, with the higher incidence of male than that of female. When temperature was below 1 °C, it was significantly correlated with TB incidence compared to the median observed temperature (15 °C) at lag 7, 14, and 21, and lower temperatures showed larger RR (relative risk) values. High temperature produced a protective effect on TB transmission, and higher temperature from 16 to 31 °C has lower RR. In discussion stratified by gender, the maximum RRs were achieved for both male group and female group at - 15 °C with lag 21, reporting 4.28 and 2.02, respectively. At high temperature (higher than 20 °C), the RR value of developing TB for female group was significantly larger than 1. In discussion stratified by age, the maximum RRs were achieved for all age groups (≤ 35, 36-64, ≥ 65) at - 15 °C with lag 21, reporting 3.20, 2.07, and 3.45, respectively. When the temperature was higher than 20 °C, the RR of the 36-64-year-old group and the ≥ 65-year-old group was significantly larger than 1 at lag 21, while significantly smaller than 1 for cumulative RR at lag 21, reporting 0.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.01, 0.83) and 0.06, 95% CI (0.01, 0.44), respectively. In conclusion, low temperature, especially in extreme level, acts as a high-risk factor inducing TB transmission in Kashgar city. Males exhibit a significantly higher RR of developing TB at low temperature than female, as well as the elderly group in contrast to the young or middle-aged groups. High temperature has a protective effect on TB transmission in the total population, but female and middle-aged and elderly groups are also required to be alert to the delayed RR induced by it.

Screening for Severe Illness at Diagnosis Has the Potential to Prevent Early TB Deaths: Programmatic Experience From Karnataka, India

Despite TB being a potentially fatal disease, severity is not systematically assessed at the start of drug-susceptible TB treatment. We document our experience screening people for severe illness at diagnosis/notification in program settings and the potential impact on reducing early TB deaths.

Due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its associated response, TB deaths increased for the first time in a decade. In any potentially fatal illness, an assessment of severity is essential. This is not systematically done for adults with TB, mostly due to a lack of policy and/or limited availability of diagnostic and clinical capacity. We developed a screening tool using simple and easily measurable indicators that can be used by paramedical TB program staff to quickly identify people with severe illness. During October–November 2020 in Karnataka, India, the paramedical program staff from 16 districts screened people with TB (aged ≥15 years) notified by public facilities for “high risk of severe illness,” which was defined as the presence of any of the following indicators: (1) body mass index (BMI) ≤14.0 kg/m²; (2) BMI ≤16.0 kg/m² with bilateral leg swelling; (3) respiratory rate >24/minute; (4) oxygen saturation <94%; (5) inability to stand without support. In this cohort study, we determined the incidence of program-recorded early deaths (within 2 months) and its association with high risk of severe illness. Of 3,010 people with TB, 1,529 (50.8%) were screened at diagnosis/notification, of whom 537 (35.1%) had a high risk of severe illness. There were 195 (6.5%, 95% CI=5.7, 7.4) early deaths: 59 (30.2%) within a week and 100 (51.3%) within 2 weeks of treatment initiation. The incidence of early deaths was significantly higher among those with high risk of severe illness (8.9%) at diagnosis compared to those without (3.8%) [adjusted relative risk: 2.36 (95% confidence interval=1.57, 3.55)]. To conclude, early deaths were especially high during the first 2 weeks and strongly associated with a high risk of severe illness at diagnosis/notification. Screening for severe illness should be explored as a potential strategy to end TB deaths.

The COVID-19 and TB syndemic: the way forward

Together, SARS-CoV-2 and M. tuberculosis have killed approximately 5.7 million people worldwide over the past 2 years. The COVID-19 pandemic, and the non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission (including social distancing regulations, partial lockdowns and quarantines), have disrupted healthcare services and led to a reallocation of resources to COVID-19 care. There has also been a tragic loss of healthcare workers who succumbed to the disease. This has had consequences for TB services, and the fear of contracting COVID-19 may also have contributed to reduced access to TB services. Altogether, this is projected to have resulted in a 5-year setback in terms of mortality from TB and a 9-year setback in terms of TB detection. In addition, past and present TB disease has been reported to increase both COVID-19 fatality and incidence. Similarly, COVID-19 may adversely affect TB outcomes. From a more positive perspective, the pandemic has also created opportunities to improve TB care. In this review, we highlight similarities and differences between these two infectious diseases, describe gaps in our knowledge and discuss solutions and priorities for future research.

Estimation of tuberculosis incidence at subnational level using three methods to monitor progress towards ending TB in India, 2015-2020

OBJECTIVES

We verified subnational (state/union territory (UT)/district) claims of achievements in reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence in 2020 compared with 2015, in India.

DESIGN

A community-based survey, analysis of programme data and anti-TB drug sales and utilisation data.

SETTING

National TB Elimination Program and private TB treatment settings in 73 districts that had filed a claim to the Central TB Division of India for progress towards TB-free status.

PARTICIPANTS

Each district was divided into survey units (SU) and one village/ward was randomly selected from each SU. All household members in the selected village were interviewed. Sputum from participants with a history of anti-TB therapy (ATT), those currently experiencing chest symptoms or on ATT were tested using Xpert/Rif/TrueNat. The survey continued until 30 Mycobacterium tuberculosis cases were identified in a district.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We calculated a direct estimate of TB incidence based on incident cases identified in the survey. We calculated an under-reporting factor by matching these cases within the TB notification system. The TB notification adjusted for this factor was the estimate by the indirect method. We also calculated TB incidence from drug sale data in the private sector and drug utilisation data in the public sector. We compared the three estimates of TB incidence in 2020 with TB incidence in 2015.

RESULTS

The estimated direct incidence ranged from 19 (Purba Medinipur, West Bengal) to 1457 (Jaintia Hills, Meghalaya) per 100 000 population. Indirect estimates of incidence ranged between 19 (Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli) and 788 (Dumka, Jharkhand) per 100 000 population. The incidence using drug sale data ranged from 19 per 100 000 population in Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli to 651 per 100 000 population in Centenary, Maharashtra.

CONCLUSION

TB incidence in 1 state, 2 UTs and 35 districts had declined by at least 20% since 2015. Two districts in India were declared TB free in 2020.

Starting an All-Oral Longer Regimen in a Primary Multidrug-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patient at a District Tuberculosis Center for the First Time: A Rare Case

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease known to mankind for ages. The situation due to this infection in low- and middle-income countries is grave. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has only added up to the woes. The situation is alarming due to the isolation of drug-resistant Mycobacterium strains in patients with no history of TB. With the inclusion of new drugs for the management of TB, such as bedaquiline (Bdq), prompt diagnosis and management are feasible. The author herein presents the first case of a primary multidrug-resistant pulmonary TB patient managed on an all-oral longer regimen with Bdq started at a district TB center (DTC) for the first time in the pandemic of COVID-19. This case is unique as during the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare facilities were saturated, and thus starting treatment after admission was very difficult. Also, the chances of cross-infection in TB patients were present due to weak immunity. This case is very important as this novel management at a DTC would help immensely in resource-limited countries where hospital admissions are difficult due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the burden of TB is very high.

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on future tuberculosis burden

Background

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases.

Methods

Here, using a data-driven epidemiological model for tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality if COVID-associated changes in TB notification are sustained and attributable entirely to disrupted diagnosis and treatment adherence.

Results

Our calculations show that the reduction in diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 228k (CI 187-276) excess deaths in India, 111k (CI 93-134) in Indonesia, 27k (CI 21-33) in Pakistan, and 12k (CI 9-18) in Kenya.

Conclusions

We show that it is possible to reverse these excess deaths by increasing the pre-covid diagnosis capabilities from 15 to 50% for 2 to 4 years. This would prevent almost all TB-related excess mortality that could be caused by the COVID-19 pandemic if no additional preventative measures are introduced. Our work therefore provides guidelines for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic in the years to come.

The intersecting pandemics of tuberculosis and COVID-19: population-level and patient-level impact, clinical presentation, and corrective interventions

The global tuberculosis burden remains substantial, with more than 10 million people newly ill per year. Nevertheless, tuberculosis incidence has slowly declined over the past decade, and mortality has decreased by almost a third in tandem. This positive trend was abruptly reversed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which in many parts of the world has resulted in a substantial reduction in tuberculosis testing and case notifications, with an associated increase in mortality, taking global tuberculosis control back by roughly 10 years. Here, we consider points of intersection between the tuberculosis and COVID-19 pandemics, identifying wide-ranging approaches that could be taken to reverse the devastating effects of COVID-19 on tuberculosis control. We review the impact of COVID-19 at the population level on tuberculosis case detection, morbidity and mortality, and the patient-level impact, including susceptibility to disease, clinical presentation, diagnosis, management, and prognosis. We propose strategies to reverse or mitigate the deleterious effects of COVID-19 and restore tuberculosis services. Finally, we highlight research priorities and major challenges and controversies that need to be addressed to restore and advance the global response to tuberculosis.

COVID-19-related healthcare impacts: an uncontrolled, segmented time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnosis services in Mozambique, 2017-2020

Introduction

Currently, COVID-19 dominates the public health agenda and poses a permanent threat, leading to health systems’ exhaustion and unprecedented service disruption. Primary healthcare services, including tuberculosis services, are at increased risk of facing severe disruptions, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Indeed, corroborating model-based forecasts, there is increasing evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic’s negative impact on tuberculosis case detection.

Methods

Applying a segmented time-series analysis, we assessed the effects of COVID-19-related measures on tuberculosis diagnosis service across districts in Mozambique. Ministry health information system data were used from the first quarter of 2017 to the end of 2020. The model, performed under the Bayesian premises, was estimated as a negative binomial with random effects for districts and provinces.

Results

A total of 154 districts were followed for 16 consecutive quarters. Together, these districts reported 96 182 cases of all forms of tuberculosis in 2020. At baseline (first quarter of 2017), Mozambique had an estimated incidence rate of 283 (95% CI 200 to 406) tuberculosis cases per 100 000 people and this increased at a 5% annual rate through the end of 2019. We estimated that 17 147 new tuberculosis cases were potentially missed 9 months after COVID-19 onset, resulting in a 15.1% (95% CI 5.9 to 24.0) relative loss in 2020. The greatest impact was observed in the southern region at 40.0% (95% CI 30.1 to 49.0) and among men at 15% (95% CI 4.0 to 25.0). The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased at an average rate of 6.6% annually; however, an abrupt drop (15%) was also observed immediately after COVID-19 onset in March 2020.

Conclusion

The most significant impact of the state of emergency was observed between April and June 2020, the quarter after COVID-19 onset. Encouragingly, by the end of 2020, clear signs of health system recovery were visible despite the initial shock.

Digital Storytelling and Community Engagement to Find Missing TB Cases in Rural Nuh, India

Nuh, Haryana, is one of India’s least developed districts. To improve TB case notifications, ZMQ carried out an active case-finding (ACF) intervention conducted by community health workers (MIRAs) using a digital TB storytelling platform to create TB awareness in the community. The combined storytelling and ACF intervention were conducted house-to-house or in community group settings. Steps included (A) the development of digital TB awareness-raising stories using a participatory approach called Story Labs; (B) the implementation of the intervention; and (C) process, outcome, and impact evaluation of these activities. Six digital stories were created and used during ACF in which 19,345 people were screened and 255 people were diagnosed with TB. Of 731 participants surveyed, the stories were well received and resulted in an increase in TB knowledge. ACF activities resulted in a 56% increase in bacteriologically confirmed TB and an 8% decrease in all forms of TB compared to baseline. All form notifications may have been impacted by COVID-19 lockdowns. Digital TB storytelling can improve TB awareness and knowledge, particularly for low-literacy populations. The use of these tools may benefit ACF campaigns and improve TB case finding.

Opportunities to prevent and manage undernutrition to amplify efforts to end TB

The bidirectional relationship between TB and nutrition is well recognized - primary undernutrition is a risk factor for developing TB disease, while TB results in wasting. Although nutrition support is acknowledged as an important intervention in TB programmes, it is seldom afforded commensurate priority for action. TB incidence and deaths worldwide are falling too slowly to meet WHO End TB Strategy milestones, and the number of undernourished people is increasing, likely to be further exacerbated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Undernutrition needs to be more urgently and intensively addressed. This is especially true for the WHO South-East Asia Region, where the high rates of undernutrition are a key driver of the TB epidemic. The evidence base has been sufficiently robust for clear and workable programmatic guidance to be formulated on assessment, counselling and interventions for TB patients. Many high-burden countries have developed policies addressing TB and nutrition. Gaps in research to date have frustrated the development of more refined programmatic approaches related to addressing TB and malnutrition. Future research can be shaped to inform targeted, actionable policies and programmes delivering dual benefits in terms of undernutrition and TB. There are clear opportunities for policy-makers to amplify efforts to end TB by addressing undernutrition.

Impacts of COVID-19-related service disruptions on TB incidence and deaths in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru: Implications for national TB responses

Initial global-level estimates reported in June 2020 by the World Health Organization suggested that levels of disruption to TB service delivery could be as high as 25%-50% and result in an additional 6·3 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) and an additional 1·4 million TB-related deaths attributable to COVID-19 between 2020 and 2025. Quarterly epidemiological estimates and programmatic TB data capturing disruption levels to each TB service were collected by National TB Programmes in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru. Data from 2019, for a pre-COVID-19 baseline, and throughout 2020, together with the NTP's COVID-19 response plans, were used within Optima TB models to project TB incidence and deaths over five years because of COVID-19-related disruptions, and the extent to which those impacts may be mitigated through proposed catch-up strategies in each country. Countries reported disruptions of up to 64% to demand-driven TB diagnosis. However, TB service availability disruptions were shorter and less severe, with TB treatment experiencing levels of disruption of up to 21%. We predicted that under the worse-case scenario cumulative new latent TB infections, new active TB infections, and TB-related deaths could increase by up to 23%, 11%, and 20%, respectively, by 2024. However, three of the five countries were on track to mitigate these increases to 3% or less by maintaining TB services in 2021 and 2022 and by implementing proposed catch-up strategies. Indonesia was already experiencing the worse-case scenario, which could lead to 270,000 additional active TB infections and 36,000 additional TB-related deaths by the end of 2024. The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to negatively affect progress towards 2035 End TB targets, especially in countries already off-track. Findings highlight both successful TB service delivery adaptions in 2020 and the need to proactively maintain TB service availability despite potential future waves of more transmissible COVID-19 variants.

Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on the pathway of care and treatment outcome among patients with tuberculosis in a rural part of northern India: a community-based study

Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected routine healthcare services across all spectra, and tuberculosis (TB) care under the National Tuberculosis Elimination Program have been affected the most. However, evidence available at the community level is minimal. The clinical features, care cascade pathway, and treatment outcomes of TB patients pre- and during/post-COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in a rural community health block in northern India were assessed and compared.

Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study that included all patients diagnosed with TB and initiated treatment under programmatic settings between January 1 and June 30, 2020, in a rural TB unit in northern India. The periods from January 1 to March 23 and March 24 to June 30 were marked as pre-lockdown and during/post-lockdown, respectively.

Results: A total of 103 patients were diagnosed and treated for TB during the study period. A significantly higher proportion of pulmonary TB cases were reported during/post-lockdown (43, 82.7%) compared to that pre-lockdown (32, 62.7%), and a higher diagnostic delay was noted during/post-lockdown (35, 81.4%). Through adjusted analysis, patients diagnosed during/post-lockdown period (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.98) and previously treated (aRR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60–0.995) had significantly lower favorable treatment outcomes.

Conclusions: The symptom and disease (pulmonary/extrapulmonary) pattern have changed during/post-lockdown. The care cascade delays are still high among TB patients, irrespective of the lockdown status. Lockdown had a significant adverse impact on the outcomes of TB treatment.

Lessons Learned During the COVID-19 Pandemic to Strengthen TB Infection Control: A Rapid Review

In light of competing health priorities of COVID-19 and TB, we propose recommendations to strengthen health system preparedness for optimal TB control across low- and middle-income countries during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction:

Over the past 5 years, substantial global investment has resulted in reduced TB incidence rates by 9% and mortality rates by 14%. However, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has hindered access and availability of TB services to maintain robust TB control. The objective of this rapid review was to describe the challenges to be addressed and recommendations to strengthen health system preparedness for optimal TB control across low- and middle-income countries during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods:

Five databases were used to systematically search for relevant articles published in 2020. The 5-step framework proposed by Arskey and O'Malley and adapted by Levac et al. guided the review process. Thematic analysis with grounded theory principles was used to summarize themes from selected articles and integrate analyses with barriers reported from authors' previous TB research.

Results:

Of the 218 peer-reviewed articles, 20 articles met the inclusion criteria. Four emerging themes described challenges: (1) unprepared health system leadership and infrastructure, (2) coexisting health priorities, (3) insufficient health care workforce support for continued training and appropriate workplace environments, and (4) weak connections to primary health centers hindering community engagement. Four recommendations were highlighted: (1) ensuring leadership and governance for sustainable national health budgets, (2) building networks of community stakeholders, (3) supporting health care workforce training and safe workplace environments, and (4) using digital health interventions for TB care.

Conclusions:

National health systems must promote patient-centered TB care, implement ethical community interventions, support operational research, and integrate appropriate eHealth applications. TB program managers and primary care practitioners can serve as instrumental leaders and patient advocates to deliver high-quality and sustainable TB care that leads to achieving the targets of the End TB Strategy.

Integrating health planning and primary care infrastructure for COVID-19 and tuberculosis care in India: Challenges and opportunities

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent worldwide. The COVID‐19 pandemic has overburdened healthcare services around the world especially in resource constrained settings. It has shaken already unstable foundation of TB control programs in India and other high burden states. A 25% decline is expected in TB detection while estimates suggest 13% increase in TB deaths due to the impact of the pandemic. However, the significant intersections between the two diseases perhaps offer potential opportunities for consolidating the efforts to tackle both. The widespread implementation and acceptance of universal masking and social distancing in India has helped limit transmission of both diseases. Integrating the capacity building strategies for the two diseases, optimizing the existing the surveillance and monitoring systems which have been achieved over the years will result in a single vertically integrated national program addressing both, rather than multiple parallel program which utilize the already sparse primary care manpower and infrastructure. In this article, we explore the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on tuberculosis in India and offer suggestions on how effective health planning can efficiently integrate infrastructure and manpower at primary level to provide care for both COVID‐19 and tuberculosis.

Tuberculosis deaths are on the rise for the first time in more than a decade due to the COVID‐19 pandemic.

There is an urgent need to evolve an integrated service delivery addressing both diseases.

This article highlights the challenges that COVID‐19 has posed for TB care in India.

We propose a unified inclusive primary care delivery model which integrates care for both TB and COVID‐19 at the level of surveillance, diagnosis, management, and preventive care. The challenges in implementing this model and possible solutions are discussed.

Universal health coverage and tuberculosis care in India in the times of Covid-19: Aligning Ayushman Bharat (National Health Assurance Scheme) to improve case detection, reduce deaths and catastrophic health expenditure

India has the largest global burden of new cases of tuberculosis (TB) and deaths due to TB. These occur predominantly in the poor who suffer catastrophic costs during diagnosis and treatment. The National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme has ambitious goals of 80% reduction of incidence of TB, 90% reduction in mortality due to TB by 2025 and 0% occurrence of catastrophic costs to households affected by TB by 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting disruption to TB services are expected to worsen the situation. There are gaps in case finding at the peripheral level and access to care at the higher level for patients with TB. An estimated 32% patients with active TB do not access diagnostic services, while catastrophic costs associated with hospitalization are a barrier to access for seriously ill patients. Deaths due to TB in India occur largely at home and not in medical facilities, and are preventable with appropriate inpatient care. The Ayushman Bharat scheme with its Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs) and coverage for inpatient care under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) can facilitate, the achievement of the goals of TB elimination. The HWCs provide an opportunity to close the case-finding gap as first point of contact by enabling sputum transport services to the designated microscopy centres. This will facilitate case detection, reduce diagnostic delays, and decrease community transmission and the incidence of TB. The benefit package of PM-JAY can cover patients with pulmonary TB, inpatient evaluation for other forms of TB, enhance the allocation for treatment and cover management of comorbid conditions such as severe undernutrition, anaemia, HIV and diabetes.

The aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of TB at a tertiary care hospital in India

BACKGROUND

The recent COVID-19 pandemic became a looming catastrophe over global public health and severely disrupted essential healthcare services like tuberculosis (TB). This study estimated the impact of the COVID-19 in the diagnosis of TB, a microbiology laboratory-based overview.

METHOD

This ambispective observational study was conducted at the Department of Microbiology in a tertiary care hospital in South Karnataka from January 2019 to December 2020. A standardized data collection sheet was prepared to collect the month-wise total number of suspected TB and confirmed TB samples. Data were analyzed using EZR 3.4.3 (R, open-source). Categorical variables were expressed in frequency and percentage. The Chi-square test was performed to test the difference in proportions and p < 0.05 indicated statistical significance.

RESULTS

In this study, a significant drop was observed in suspected TB specimens in 2020 compared to 2019, i.e. 54.8% for microscopy, along with 34.2% and 49.7% for Xpert MTB/RIF and MGIT culture respectively. Also, a sharp decline in confirmed TB samples was noted in 2020 with 49%, 43.8%, and 59.7% reduction with microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF, and MGIT culture respectively, compared to 2019. Another major finding from this study reveals the PTB: EPTB proportion changed from 2.7:1 in 2019 to 2.1:1 in 2020, divulging an overall increase in EPTB sample proportion in 2020 (p = 0.0385).

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely impacted the TB diagnostic services, resulting in a significant reduction of active TB case detection. It highlights an urgent need to revise the strategies to control and eliminate TB in this hour of the pandemic crisis.

Experiences, challenges and looking to the future in a clinical tuberculosis cohort in the time of COVID-19 in the Philippines

A cohort study of Filipino tuberculosis patients is currently undergoing data collection amidst the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. In this article we present the current experiences, challenges and obstacles of our team during this period as we attempt to fulfil our roles and responsibilities in Metro Manila, Cebu and Negros Occidental in the Philippines. Each site had different lockdown restrictions and experienced problems to different degrees. The underlying themes were similar, covering the supply chain, mobility, communication, physical and mental health and disruption of health services due to reallocation of staff. While we maximized the use of mobile devices, logistical challenges remained. Institutional support for the field teams, creative problem solving and resilience are required to adapt in a rapidly changing environment.

Screening People with Tuberculosis for High Risk of Severe Illness at Notification: Programmatic Experience from Karnataka, India

Due to limited availability of diagnostics and capacity, people with tuberculosis do not always undergo systematic assessment for severe illness (requiring inpatient care). In Karnataka (south India), para-medical programme staff used a screening tool to identify people at 'high risk of severe illness', defined using indicators of very severe undernutrition, abnormal vital signs and poor performance status (any one): (i) body mass index (BMI) ≤ 14.0 kg/m² (ii) BMI ≤ 16.0 kg/m² with bilateral leg swelling (iii) respiratory rate > 24/min (iv) oxygen saturation < 94% (v) inability to stand without support. Of 3020 adults notified from public facilities (15 October to 30 November 2020) in 16 districts, 1531 (51%) were screened (district-wise range: 13-90%) and of them, 538 (35%) were classified as 'high risk of severe illness'. Short median delays in screening from notification (five days), and all five indicators being collected for 88% of patients, suggests the feasibility of using this tool in programme settings. However, districts with poor screening coverage require further attention. To end tuberculosis deaths, screening should be followed by referral to higher facilities for comprehensive clinical evaluation, to assess the need for inpatient care. Future studies should assess the validity (especially sensitivity in picking severely ill patients) of this screening tool.

The impact of COVID-19 on TB: a review of the data

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, models predicted hundreds of thousands of additional TB deaths as a result of health service disruption. To date, empirical evidence on the effects of COVID-19 on TB outcomes has been limited. Here we summarise the evidence available at a country level, identifying broad mechanisms by which COVID-19 may modify TB burden and mitigation efforts. From the data, it is clear that there have been substantial disruptions to TB health services and an increase in vulnerability to TB. Evidence for changes in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission is limited, and it remains unclear how the resources required and available for the TB response have changed. To advocate for additional funding to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the global TB burden, and to efficiently allocate resources for the TB response, requires a significant improvement in the TB data available.

Tuberculosis under the Influence of COVID-19 Lockdowns: Lessons from Tehran, Iran

This study investigates the short-term effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic lockdown on tracing and detection of tuberculosis (TB) patients in Tehran, Iran. Results of this study have demonstrated that due to the significant decrease in the identification of patients with suspected TB during the COVID-19 outbreak in Tehran, it is imperative that patients with suspected TB be tracked and diagnosed more quickly to make up for some of the decline in TB diagnosis in recent months and to recover lost cases.

Commentary: Lessons from the COVID-19 global health response to inform TB case finding

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as a serious threat to global public health, demanding urgent action and causing unprecedented worldwide change in a short space of time. This disease has devastated economies, infringed on individual freedoms, and taken an unprecedented toll on healthcare systems worldwide. As of 1 April 2020, over a million cases of COVID-19 have been reported in 204 countries and territories, resulting in more than 51,000 deaths. Yet, against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, lies an older, insidious disease with a much greater mortality. Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death by a single infectious agent and remains a potent threat to millions of people around the world. We discuss the differences between the two pandemics at present, consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on TB case management, and explore the opportunities that the COVID-19 response presents for advancing TB prevention and control now and in future.

Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in India and modeling optimal lockdown exit strategies

India imposed one of the world’s strictest population-wide lockdowns on March 25, 2020 for COVID-19. We estimated epidemiological parameters, evaluated the effect of control measures on the epidemic in India, and explored strategies to exit lockdown.

We obtained patient-level data to estimate the delay from onset to confirmation and the asymptomatic proportion. We estimated the basic and time-varying reproduction number (R₀ and R_t) after adjusting for imported cases and delay to confirmation using incidence data from March 4 to April 25, 2020. Using a SEIR-QDPA model, we simulated lockdown relaxation scenarios and increased testing to evaluate lockdown exit strategies.

R₀ for India was estimated to be 2·08, and the R_t decreased from 1·67 on March 30 to 1·16 on April 22. We observed that the delay from the date of lockdown relaxation to the start of the second wave increases as lockdown is extended farther after the first wave peak—this delay is longer if lockdown is relaxed gradually.

Aggressive measures such as lockdowns may be inherently enough to suppress an outbreak; however, other measures need to be scaled up as lockdowns are relaxed. Lower levels of social distancing when coupled with a testing ramp-up could achieve similar outbreak control as an aggressive social distancing regime where testing was not increased.

TB and COVID - Public and private health sectors adapt to a new reality

Health systems across the world have been baffled by the COVID19 pandemic. Tuberculosis (TB) care and prevention especially in high burden countries has faced disruption to their routine services. Though these setbacks were predicted by many modelling studies, reports and surveys from the field convey the hard reality faced by the TB services. However, health systems have not given up and have become resilient by adapting interesting strategies to overcome these obstacles. The private health sector has also stepped up to the occasion by supporting national TB programs through innovative approaches. The scientific community has laid down several evidence-based recommendations to help TB programs get back on track. Its time to unite these forces to not just overcome the challenge posed by the pandemic but also to build a more resilient health system.

What is operational research and how can national tuberculosis programmes in low- and middle-income countries use it to end TB?

Despite considerable progress over the years, tuberculosis (TB) still remains the top cause of death among the infectious diseases and has devastating socio-economic consequences for people in low- and middle-income countries. To add to this, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened delivery of TB care across the globe. As a global community, we have committed to end the TB epidemic by 2030. The World Health Organization has framed a strategy to achieve this goal which consists of three pillars namely i) integrated patient-centred care and prevention, ii) bold policies and systems and iii) intensified research and innovation. An analysis of the performance of national tuberculosis programmes (NTPs) across the globe against the ten priority indicators recommended for monitoring the end TB strategy show that there are huge gaps at every step in the cascade of care of TB patients. In our view, these gaps reflect suboptimal implementation of existing strategies known to be efficacious and operational research (OR) is one of the best available tools to plug the gaps. In this paper, we define what operational research is and how it differs from other kinds of research. We also share our views and experiences about how operational research can be used by NTPs to identify implementation gaps and their reasons, and develop and test possible solutions - which are then integrated to make changes to policy and practice and eventually improve programme outcomes. OR can be defined as research into interventions, strategies and tools which produces practical useable knowledge that can be used to enhance the quality, coverage, effectiveness and efficiency of disease control programmes, health services or health systems in which the research is conducted. The key steps in integrating operational research in the NTPs include: i) securing political commitment reflected by inclusion of OR in the national strategic plans of NTPs and earmarked funding, ii) having a critical mass of dedicated and trained human resources in OR within the NTP, iii) setting research priorities and steering the direction of research in the country, iv) using output-oriented models of capacity building such as the Structured Operational Research Training Initiative (SORT IT) model and building communities of practice, v) harnessing existing capacity in the country by forging partnerships with academia, vi) NTP-led nationwide, multicentre OR studies, vii) providing access to anonymized patient and programme surveillance data, vii) creating a forum for evidence dissemination and fostering policy change and ix) monitoring and accountability. In conclusion, ending the TB epidemic will not be possible without new tools (diagnostics, drugs, vaccines) and a multi-sectoral response involving stakeholders beyond the health ministry, including private providers, patients and communities. However, timely conduct of operational research to fine-tune programme implementation and ensuring proper deployment of new tools will be equally crucial to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions and ultimately contribute towards ending TB.

Research in Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Quality versus quantity

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