Modifiable Risk Factors for Incident Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation

Serum electrolyte concentrations and risk of atrial fibrillation: an observational and mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent arrhythmic condition resulting in increased stroke risk and is associated with high mortality. Electrolyte imbalance can increase the risk of AF, where the relationship between AF and serum electrolytes remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 15,792 individuals were included in the observational study, with incident AF ascertainment in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cox regression models were applied to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for AF based on different serum electrolyte levels. Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to examine the causal association.

RESULTS

In observational study, after a median 19.7 years of follow-up, a total of 2551 developed AF. After full adjustment, participants with serum potassium below the 5th percentile had a higher risk of AF relative to participants in the middle quintile. Serum magnesium was also inversely associated with the risk of AF. An increased incidence of AF was identified in individuals with higher serum phosphate percentiles. Serum calcium levels were not related to AF risk. Moreover, MR analysis indicated that genetically predicted serum electrolyte levels were not causally associated with AF risk. The odds ratio for AF were 0.999 for potassium, 1.044 for magnesium, 0.728 for phosphate, and 0.979 for calcium, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum electrolyte disorders such as hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia and hyperphosphatemia were associated with an increased risk of AF and may also serve to be prognostic factors. However, the present study did not support serum electrolytes as causal mediators for AF development.

Incidence and prediction of hospitalization for heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation: the REFLEJA scale

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) is common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and is associated with increased mortality. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of HHF, identify the clinical predictors of its occurrence, and develop a new risk scale.

METHODS

The incidence of HHF was estimated using data from the prospective single-center REFLEJA registry of outpatients with AF (October 2017-October 2018). A multivariate Cox regression model was calculated to detect HHF predictors, and a nomogram was created for individual risk assessment.

RESULTS

Of the 1499 patients included (mean age 73.8±11.1 years, 48.1% women), 127 had HHF (incidence rate of 8.51 per 100 persons/y) and 319 died (rate of death from any cause of 21.1 per 100 persons/y) after a 3-year follow-up. The independent predictors of HHF were age, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, pulmonary hypertension, previous pacemaker implantation, baseline use of diuretics, and moderate-severe aortic regurgitation. The c-statistic for predicting the event was 0.762 (95%CI after boostrapping resampling, 0.753-0.791). The cumulative incidences of the main outcome for the risk scale quartiles were 1.613 (Q1), 3.815 (Q2), 8.378 (Q3), and 20.436 (Q4) cases per 100 persons/y (P <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

HHF was common in this AF cohort. The combination of certain clinical characteristics can identify patients with a very high risk of HHF.

2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate.

STRUCTURE

Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.

Association Between Lipoprotein (a) and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Mendelian Randomization Studies

Lipoprotein (a) (Lp[a]) is an established risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, data on association of Lp(a) with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still limited. We searched PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and EMBASE for studies evaluating the association of Lp(a) with the occurrence of AF until July 2023. Random effects models and I2 statistics were used for pooled odds ratios (OR), and heterogeneity assessments. A subgroup analysis was performed based on the cohort population, and a one-out sensitivity analysis was performed. This meta-analysis comprised 275,647 AF cases and 2,100,172 Lp(a) participants. An increase in Lp(a) was associated with an increased risk of AF in mendelian randomization (MR) studies (OR 1.024, 95% CI: 1.007-1.042, I2 = 87.72%, P < 0.001). Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis confirmed equivalent results in MR studies. Subgroup analysis of MR studies revealed a higher risk of AF in the European cohort (OR 1.023, 95% CI: 1.007-1.040, I2 = 89.05%, P < 0.001) and a low risk (OR 0.940, 95% CI: 0.893-0.990) in the Chinese population. Meta-analysis of the MR data suggested higher levels of Lp(a) were associated with increased risk of AF. Future robust prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings.

Heart failure in older patients with atrial fibrillation: incidence and risk factors

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is linked to heart failure (HF). However, little has been published on the factors that may precipitate the onset of HF in AF patients. We aimed to determine the incidence, predictors, and prognosis of incident HF in older patients with AF with no prior history of HF.

METHODS

Patients with AF older than 80 years and without prior HF were identified between 2014 and 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 5794 patients (mean age, 85.2±3.8 years; 63.2% women) were followed up for 3.7 years. Incident HF, predominantly with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, developed in 33.3% (incidence rate, 11.5-100 people-year). Multivariate analysis identified 11 clinical risk factors for incident HF, irrespective of HF subtype: significant valvular heart disease (HR, 1.99; 95%CI, 1.73-2.28), reduced baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (HR, 1.92; 95%CI, 1.68-2.19), chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (HR, 1.59; 95%CI, 1.40-1.82), enlarged left atrium (HR 1.47, 95%CI 1.33-1.62), renal dysfunction (HR 1.36, 95%CI 1.24-1.49), malnutrition (HR, 1.33; 95%CI, 1.21-1.46), anemia (HR, 1.30; 95%CI, 1.17-1.44), permanent AF (HR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.03-1.28), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.13; 95%CI, 1.01-1.27), age per year (HR, 1.04; 95%CI, 1.02-1.05), and high body mass index for each kg/m2 (HR, 1.03; 95%CI, 1.02-1.04). The presence of incident HF nearly doubled the mortality risk (HR, 1.67; 95%CI, 1.53-1.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of HF in this cohort was relatively frequent and nearly doubled the mortality risk. Eleven risk factors for HF were identified, expanding the scope for primary prevention among elderly patients with AF.

Roles of gut microbiota in atrial fibrillation: insights from Mendelian randomization analysis and genetic data from over 430,000 cohort study participants

BACKGROUND

Gut microbiota imbalances have been suggested as a contributing factor to atrial fibrillation (AF), but the causal relationship is not fully understood.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the causal relationships between the gut microbiota and AF using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.

METHODS

Summary statistics were from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 207 gut microbial taxa (5 phyla, 10 classes, 13 orders, 26 families, 48 genera, and 105 species) (the Dutch Microbiome Project) and two large meta-GWASs of AF. The significant results were validated in FinnGen cohort and over 430,000 UK Biobank participants. Mediation MR analyses were conducted for AF risk factors, including type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease (CAD), body mass index (BMI), blood lipids, blood pressure, and obstructive sleep apnea, to explore the potential mediation effect of these risk factors in between the gut microbiota and AF.

RESULTS

Two microbial taxa causally associated with AF: species Eubacterium ramulus (odds ratio [OR] 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.12, P = 0.0001, false discovery rate (FDR) adjusted p-value = 0.023) and genus Holdemania (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.07-1.25, P = 0.0004, FDR adjusted p-value = 0.042). Genus Holdemania was associated with incident AF risk in the UK Biobank. The proportion of mediation effect of species Eubacterium ramulus via CAD was 8.05% (95% CI 1.73% - 14.95%, P = 0.008), while the proportion of genus Holdemania on AF via BMI was 12.01% (95% CI 5.17% - 19.39%, P = 0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided genetic evidence to support a potential causal mechanism between gut microbiota and AF and suggested the mediation role of AF risk factors.

Predicting new-onset heart failure hospitalization of patients with atrial fibrillation: development and external validations of a risk score

AIM

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a well-known risk factor for heart failure (HF). We sought to develop and externally validate a risk model for new-onset HF admission in patients with AF and those without a history of HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using two multicentre, prospective, observational AF registries, RAFFINE (2857 patients, derivation cohort) and SAKURA (2516 patients without a history of HF, validation cohort), we developed a risk model by selecting variables with regularized regression and weighing coefficients by Cox regression with the derivation cohort. External validity testing was used for the validation cohort. Overall, 148 (5.2%) and 104 (4.1%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, developed HF during median follow-ups of 1396 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1078-1820) and 1168 (IQR: 844-1309) days, respectively. In the derivation cohort, age, haemoglobin, serum creatinine, and log-transformed brain natriuretic peptide were identified as potential risk factors for HF development. The risk model showed good discrimination and calibration in both derivations (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.84]; Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.257) and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.78 [95%CI 0.74-0.83]; Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.475).

CONCLUSION

The novel risk model with four readily available clinical characteristics and biomarkers performed well in predicting new-onset HF admission in patients with AF.

Associated factors and effects of comorbid atrial fibrillation in hypertensive patients due to primary aldosteronism

The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk of cardiovascular events are reportedly higher in patients with primary aldosteronism (PA) than essential hypertension. However, associated factors of comorbid AF and cardiovascular events in PA patients after PA treatment remain unclear. This nationwide registration study included PA patients ≥20 years old. Incident cardiovascular events were observed with a mean follow-up of approximately 3 years. A total of 3654 patients with PA were included at the time of analysis. Prevalence of AF was 2.4%. PA patients with AF were older, more frequently male and had longer duration of hypertension than those without AF. No significant difference in basal plasma and adrenal venous aldosterone concentration, renin activity, potassium concentration, confirmatory tests of PA, laterality or surgery rate were seen between groups. Logistic regression analysis showed age, male sex, cardiothoracic ratio, past history of coronary artery disease and heart failure were independent factors associated with AF. PA patients with AF showed a higher frequency of cardiovascular events than those without AF (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox analyses demonstrated AF in addition to older age, duration of hypertension, body mass index and chronic kidney disease as independent prognostic factors for cardiovascular events after PA treatment. Incidence of cardiovascular events were significantly lower in PA patients with AF than AF patients from the Fushimi registry during follow-up after adjusting age, sex and systolic blood pressure. Early diagnosis of PA may prevent AF and other cardiovascular events in PA patients by shortening the duration of hypertension and appropriate PA treatment.

Machine Learning Risk Prediction for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus is placed on the risk stratification for, and prevention of, incident HF in patients with AF.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to construct and validate a machine learning (ML) prediction model for HF hospitalization in patients with AF.

METHODS

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of patients with AF in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. We divided the data set of the registry into derivation (n = 2,383) and validation (n = 2,011) cohorts. An ML model was built to predict the incidence of HF hospitalization using the derivation cohort, and predictive ability was examined using the validation cohort.

RESULTS

HF hospitalization occurred in 606 patients (14%) during a median follow-up period of 4.4 years in the entire registry. Data of transthoracic echocardiography and biomarkers were frequently nominated as important predictive variables across all 6 ML models. The ML model based on a random forest algorithm using 7 variables (age, history of HF, creatinine clearance, cardiothoracic ratio on x-ray, left ventricular [LV] ejection fraction, LV end-systolic diameter, and LV asynergy) had high prediction performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.75) and was significantly superior to the Framingham HF risk model (AUC: 0.67; P < 0.001). Based on Kaplan-Meier curves, the ML model could stratify the risk of HF hospitalization during the follow-up period (log-rank; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ML model revealed important predictors and helped us to stratify the risk of HF, providing opportunities for the prevention of HF in patients with AF.

An Auxiliary Scoring Model for Patients with Acute Pulmonary Embolism Complicated with Atrial Fibrillation Was Established Based on Random Forests

The purpose of this study was to explore the establishment of an auxiliary scoring model for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE) complicated with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on random forest (RF) and its application effect. A retrospective analysis was performed on the general data, underlying diseases, laboratory indicators, and cardiac indicators of 100 patients with APE admitted to our hospital from 2018 to 2021. The occurrence of atrial fibrillation in patients with pulmonary embolism was taken as a categorical variable, and the general data, underlying diseases, laboratory indicators, and cardiac indicators were taken as input variables. Then, the risk auxiliary scoring model for patients with APE complicated with AF was established based on RF and logistic regression. Finally, the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, recall rate, accuracy, F1 value, and the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the predictive value of the models. After statistical analysis, the optimal node value was 3 and the optimal number of decision trees was 500 in the RF model. The importance of predictors in descending order were Hcy, diabetes mellitus, FT3 level, UA level, left atrial diameter, hypertension, and smoking history. The prediction accuracy of the RF model was 0.934, sensitivity 0.966, specificity 0.876, recall rate 0.9660, accuracy 0.934, and F1 value 0.950. The logistic regression model prediction accuracy was 0.816, sensitivity 0.915, specificity 0.125, recall rate 0.902, accuracy 0.811, and F1 value 0.896. The RF model and logistic regression prediction model AUC values were 0.984 and 0.883, respectively. From this, we conclude that the RF model was better than the logistic regression model in predicting AF in APE patients. So, the RF model had the clinical application value.

A population-based study of 92 clinically recognized risk factors for heart failure: co-occurrence, prognosis and preventive potential

AIMS

Primary prevention strategies for heart failure (HF) have had limited success, possibly due to a wide range of underlying risk factors (RFs). Systematic evaluations of the prognostic burden and preventive potential across this wide range of risk factors are lacking. We aimed at estimating evidence, prevalence and co-occurrence for primary prevention and impact on prognosis of RFs for incident HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We systematically reviewed trials and observational evidence of primary HF prevention across 92 putative aetiologic RFs for HF identified from US and European clinical practice guidelines. We identified 170 885 individuals aged ≥30 years with incident HF from 1997 to 2017, using linked primary and secondary care UK electronic health records (EHR) and rule-based phenotypes (ICD-10, Read Version 2, OPCS-4 procedure and medication codes) for each of 92 RFs. Only 10/92 factors had high quality observational evidence for association with incident HF; 7 had effective randomized controlled trial (RCT)-based interventions for HF prevention (RCT-HF), and 6 for cardiovascular disease prevention, but not HF (RCT-CVD), and the remainder had no RCT-based preventive interventions (RCT-0). We were able to map 91/92 risk factors to EHR using 5961 terms, and 88/91 factors were represented by at least one patient. In the 5 years prior to HF diagnosis, 44.3% had ≥4 RFs. By RCT evidence, the most common RCT-HF RFs were hypertension (48.5%), stable angina (34.9%), unstable angina (16.8%), myocardial infarction (15.8%), and diabetes (15.1%); RCT-CVD RFs were smoking (46.4%) and obesity (29.9%); and RCT-0 RFs were atrial arrhythmias (17.2%), cancer (16.5%), heavy alcohol intake (14.9%). Mortality at 1 year varied across all 91 factors (lowest: pregnancy-related hormonal disorder 4.2%; highest: phaeochromocytoma 73.7%). Among new HF cases, 28.5% had no RCT-HF RFs and 38.6% had no RCT-CVD RFs. 15.6% had either no RF or only RCT-0 RFs.

CONCLUSION

One in six individuals with HF have no recorded RFs or RFs without trials. We provide a systematic map of primary preventive opportunities across a wide range of RFs for HF, demonstrating a high burden of co-occurrence and the need for trials tackling multiple RFs.

The association of education and household income with the lifetime risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The Framingham Heart study

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Long-term risk of adverse outcomes according to atrial fibrillation type

Sustained forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) may be associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes, but few if any long-term studies took into account changes of AF type and co-morbidities over time. We prospectively followed 3843 AF patients and collected information on AF type and co-morbidities during yearly follow-ups. The primary outcome was a composite of stroke or systemic embolism (SE). Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction, hospitalization for congestive heart failure (CHF), bleeding and all-cause mortality. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates were used to compare hazard ratios (HR) according to AF type. At baseline 1895 (49%), 1046 (27%) and 902 (24%) patients had paroxysmal, persistent and permanent AF and 3234 (84%) were anticoagulated. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 3.0 (1.9; 4.2) years, the incidence of stroke/SE was 1.0 per 100 patient-years. The incidence of myocardial infarction, CHF, bleeding and all-cause mortality was 0.7, 3.0, 2.9 and 2.7 per 100 patient-years, respectively. The multivariable adjusted (a) HRs (95% confidence interval) for stroke/SE were 1.13 (0.69; 1.85) and 1.27 (0.83; 1.95) for time-updated persistent and permanent AF, respectively. The corresponding aHRs were 1.23 (0.89, 1.69) and 1.45 (1.12; 1.87) for all-cause mortality, 1.34 (1.00; 1.80) and 1.30 (1.01; 1.67) for CHF, 0.91 (0.48; 1.72) and 0.95 (0.56; 1.59) for myocardial infarction, and 0.89 (0.70; 1.14) and 1.00 (0.81; 1.24) for bleeding. In this large prospective cohort of AF patients, time-updated AF type was not associated with incident stroke/SE.

Ultrafiltration rate and incident atrial fibrillation among older individuals initiating hemodialysis

BACKGROUND

Higher ultrafiltration (UF) rates are associated with numerous adverse cardiovascular outcomes among individuals receiving maintenance hemodialysis. We undertook this study to investigate the association of UF rate and incident atrial fibrillation in a large, nationally representative US cohort of incident, older hemodialysis patients.

METHODS

We used the US Renal Data System linked to the records of a large dialysis provider to identify individuals ≥67 years of age initiating hemodialysis between January 2006 and December 2011. We applied an extended Cox model as a function of a time-varying exposure to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of delivered UF rate and incident atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

Among the 15 414 individuals included in the study, 3177 developed atrial fibrillation. In fully adjusted models, a UF rate >13 mL/h/kg (versus ≤13 mL/h/kg) was associated with a higher hazard of incident atrial fibrillation [adjusted HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.07-1.30)]. Analyses using lower UF rate thresholds (≤10 versus >10 mL/h/kg and ≤8 versus >8 mL/h/kg, separately) yielded similar results. Analyses specifying the UF rate as a cubic spline (per 1 mL/h/kg) confirmed an approximately linear dose-response relationship between the UF rate and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation: risk began at UF rates of ~6 mL/h/kg and the magnitude of this risk flattened, but remained elevated, at rates ≥9 mL/h/kg.

CONCLUSION

In this observational study of older individuals initiating hemodialysis, higher UF rates were associated with higher incidences of atrial fibrillation.

Modification effect of ideal cardiovascular health metrics on genetic association with incident heart failure in the China Kadoorie Biobank and the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Both genetic and cardiovascular factors contribute to the risk of developing heart failure (HF), but whether idea cardiovascular health metrics (ICVHMs) offset the genetic association with incident HF remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the genetic association with incident HF as well as the modification effect of ICVHMs on such genetic association in Chinese and British populations.

METHODS

An ICVHMs based on smoking, drinking, physical activity, diets, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, blood glucose, and blood lipids, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) for HF were constructed in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) of 96,014 participants and UK Biobank (UKB) of 335,782 participants which were free from HF and severe chronic diseases at baseline.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 11.38 and 8.73 years, 1451 and 3169 incident HF events were documented in CKB and UKB, respectively. HF risk increased monotonically with the increase of PRS per standard deviation (CKB: hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07, 1.32; UKB: 1.07; 1.03, 1.11; P for trend < 0.001). Each point increase in ICVHMs was associated with 15% and 20% lower risk of incident HF in CKB (0.85; 0.81, 0.90) and UKB (0.80; 0.77, 0.82), respectively. Compared with unfavorable ICVHMs, favorable ICVHMs was associated with a lower HF risk, with 0.71 (0.44, 1.15), 0.41 (0.22, 0.77), and 0.48 (0.30, 0.77) in the low, intermediate, and high genetic risk in CKB and 0.34 (0.26, 0.44), 0.32 (0.25, 0.41), and 0.37 (0.28, 0.47) in UKB (P for multiplicative interaction > 0.05). Participants with low genetic risk and favorable ICVHMs, as compared with high genetic risk and unfavorable ICVHMs, had 56~72% lower risk of HF (CKB 0.44; 0.28, 0.70; UKB 0.28; 0.22, 0.37). No additive interaction between PRS and ICVHMs was observed (relative excess risk due to interaction was 0.05 [-0.22, 0.33] in CKB and 0.04 [-0.14, 0.22] in UKB).

CONCLUSIONS

In CKB and UKB, genetic risk and ICVHMs were independently associated with the risk of incident HF, which suggested that adherence to favorable cardiovascular health status was associated with a lower HF risk among participants with all gradients of genetic risk.

LVS-HARMED Risk Score for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Present to the Emergency Department: Data from a World-Wide Registry

Background Heart failure (HF) is a common complication to atrial fibrillation (AF), leading to rehospitalization and death. Early identification of patients with AF at risk for HF might improve outcomes. We aimed to derive a score to predict 1-year risk of new-onset HF after an emergency department (ED) visit with AF. Methods and Results The RE-LY AF (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy) registry enrolled patients with AF presenting to an ED in 47 countries, and followed them for a year. The end point was HF hospitalization and/or HF death. Among 15 400 ED patients, 9765 had no prior HF (mean age, 64.9±14.9 years). Within 1 year, new-onset HF developed in 6.8% of patients, of whom 21% died of HF. Independent predictors of HF included left ventricular hypertrophy (odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% CI, 1.19-1.82), valvular heart disease (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.18-2.04), smoking (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.78), height (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95 per 3 cm), age (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.15 per 5 years), rheumatic heart disease (OR, 1.77, 95% CI, 1.24-2.51), prior myocardial infarction (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.45-2.36), remaining in AF at ED discharge (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.46-2.36), and diabetes (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09-1.64). A continuous risk prediction score (LVS-HARMED [left ventricular, valvular heart disease, smoking or other tobacco use, height, age, rheumatic heart disease, myocardial infarction, emergency department discharge rhythm, and diabetes]) had good discrimination (C statistic, 0.735; 95% CI, 0.716-0.755). Validation was conducted internally using bootstrapping (optimism-corrected C statistic, 0.705) and externally (C statistic, 0.699). The 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization and/or HF death across quartile groups of the score was 1.1%, 4.5%, 6.9%, and 14.4%, respectively. LVS-HARMED also predicted incident stroke (C statistic, 0.753; 95% CI, 0.728-0.778). Conclusions The LVS-HARMED score predicts new-onset HF after an ED visit for AF. Preventative strategies should be considered in patients with high LVS-HARMED HF risk.

Relationship between diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation prevalence in the Polish population: a report from the Non-invasive Monitoring for Early Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (NOMED-AF) prospective cross-sectional observational study

Background

The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) is constantly rising, leading to an increasing healthcare burden of stroke. AF often remains undiagnosed due to the occurrence in an asymptomatic, silent form, i.e., silent AF (SAF). The study aims to evaluate the relationships between DM and AF prevalence using a mobile long-term continuous ECG telemonitoring vest in a representative Polish and European population ≥ 65 years for detection of AF, symptomatic or silent.

Methods

A representative sample of 3014 participants from the cross-sectional NOMED-AF study was enrolled in the analyses (mean age 77.5, 49.1% female): 881 (29.2%) were diagnosed with DM. AF was screened using a telemonitoring vest for a mean of 21.9 ± 9.1days.

Results

Overall, AF was reported in 680 (22.6%) of the whole study population. AF prevalence was higher among subjects with concomitant DM (DM+) versus those without DM (DM−) [25%, 95% CI 22.5-27.8% vs 17%; 95% CI 15.4–18.5% respectively, p < 0.001]. DM patients were commonly associated with SAF [9%; 95% CI 7.9–11.4 vs 7%; 95% CI 5.6–7.5 respectively, p < 0.001], and persistent/permanent AF [12.2%; 95% CI 10.3–14.3 vs 6.9%; 95% CI 5.9–8.1 respectively, p < 0.001] compared to subjects without DM. The prolonged screening was associated with a higher percentage of newly established AF diagnosis in DM+ vs DM− patients (5% vs 4.5% respectively, p < 0.001). In addition to shared risk factors, DM+ subjects were associated with different AF and SAF independent risk factors compared to DM− individuals, including thyroid disease, peripheral/systemic thromboembolism, hypertension, physical activity and prior percutaneous coronary intervention/coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Conclusions

AF affects 1 out of 4 subjects with concomitant DM. The higher prevalence of AF and SAF among DM subjects than those without DM highlights the necessity of active AF screening specific AF risk factors assessment amongst the diabetic population.

Trial registration: NCT03243474

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01318-2.

Atrial fibrillation in patients with systolic heart failure: pathophysiology mechanisms and management

Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) demonstrate a constantly increasing prevalence during the 21^st century worldwide, as a result of the aging population and the successful interventions of the clinical practice in the deterioration of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. HF and AF share common risk factors and pathophysiological mechanisms, creating the base of a constant interrelation. AF impairs systolic and diastolic function, resulting in the increasing incidence of HF, whereas the structural and neurohormonal changes in HF with preserved or reduced ejection fraction increase the possibility of the AF development. The temporal relationship of the development of either condition affects the diagnostic algorithms, the prognosis and the ideal therapeutic strategy that leads to euvolaemia, management of non-cardiovascular comorbidities, control of heart rate or restoration of sinus rate, ventricular synchronization, prevention of sudden death, stroke, embolism, or major bleeding and maintenance of a sustainable quality of life. The indicated treatment for the concomitant HF and AF includes rate or/and rhythm control as well as thromboembolism prophylaxis, while the progress in the understanding of their pathophysiological interdependence and the introduction of the genetic profiling, create new paths in the diagnosis, the prognosis and the prevention of these diseases.

Incidence, predictors and mortality risk of new heart failure in patients hospitalised with atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence, risk predictors and relative mortality risk of incident heart failure (HF) in patients following atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalisation.

METHODS

The Western Australian Hospitalisation Morbidity Data Collection was used to identify patients aged 25-94 years with index (first-in-period) AF hospitalisation, but without a prior HF admission, between 2000 and 2013. We evaluated the risk of incident HF hospitalisation within 3 years after AF admission, and the impact of HF hospitalisation on all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 52 447 patients, 57.5% men, with a median age of 73.1 (IQR 63.2-80.8) years. At 3 years after AF discharge, the cumulative incidence of HF (n=6153) was 11.7% (95% CI 11.5% to 12.0%) and all-cause death (n=9702) was 18.5% (95% CI 18.2% to 18.8%). Independent predictors of incident HF included advancing age, any history of myocardial infarction (MI), peripheral vascular disease, valvular heart disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, diabetes, obesity and excessive alcohol use (all p<0.001). Patients hospitalised for first-ever HF compared with those without HF hospitalisation had an adjusted HR of 3.3 (95% CI 3.1 to 3.4) for all-cause mortality (p<0.001). Independent predictors of HF were also shared with those for mortality, with the exception of hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Hospitalisation for new HF is common in patients with AF and independently associated with a 3-fold hazard for death. The clinical predictors of incident HF emphasise the importance of integrated management of common comorbid conditions and lifestyle risk factors in patients with AF to reduce their morbidity and mortality.

Mitral valve repair and surgical ablation for atrial functional mitral regurgitation

Background

This observational study aimed to share our experience in the surgical management of atrial functional mitral regurgitation (AFMR).

Methods

We retrospectively identified 82 AFMR patients (63.6±7.7 years) from June 2008 to November 2018 at our institution. Of these patients, 72.0% of them were classified as NYHA functional class III/IV, and all of them had persistent AF. All patients underwent mitral valve (MV) repair, and 52 (63.4%) received concomitant surgical ablation (SA). Patients were followed up for 26.1±27.6 months, and postoperative mitral regurgitation (MR) was assessed by echocardiography.

Results

There was no in-hospital mortality. The overall 1-year and 3-year survival rates were 97.5% and 92.9%, respectively, and 96.1% of patients recovered to NYHA functional class I/II at the latest follow-up. The left atrium (LA) diameter (P<0.001), left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic diameter (P<0.001), LV end-systolic diameter (LVESD) (P<0.001) and pulmonary artery pressure (P=0.006) significantly decreased postoperatively. The overall 1-year and 3-year freedom from recurrent MR rates were 94.3% and 65.3%, respectively, and a significant difference was found between the SA group and the non-SA group (93.8% and 93.8% vs. 95.5% and 44.2%, P=0.035). In a subgroup analysis, this significant difference was only found in the small LA group (≤60 mm).

Conclusions

Our results suggest that MV repair for AFMR is safe and effective. It improves heart failure symptoms and results in reverse-remodeling of both the LA and LV. Concomitant SA might benefit patients in terms of recurrent MR, especially in the small LA group (≤60 mm).

Diabetes mellitus and risk of new-onset and recurrent heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Despite mounting evidence of the positive relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and heart failure (HF), the entire context of the magnitude of risk for HF in relation to DM remains insufficiently understood. The principal reason is because new‐onset HF (HF occurring in participants without a history of HF) and recurrent HF (HF re‐occurring in patients with a history of HF) are not discriminated. This meta‐analysis aims to comprehensively and separately assess the risk of new‐onset and recurrent HF depending on the presence or absence of DM. We systematically searched cohort studies that examined the relationship between DM and new‐onset or recurrent HF using EMBASE and MEDLINE (from 1 Jan 1950 to 28 Jul 2019). The risk ratio (RR) for HF in individuals with DM compared with those without DM was pooled with a random‐effects model. Seventy‐four and 38 eligible studies presented data on RRs for new‐onset and recurrent HF, respectively. For new‐onset HF, the pooled RR [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 69 studies that examined HF as a whole [i.e. combining HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF)] was 2.14 (1.96–2.34). The large between‐study heterogeneity (I² = 99.7%, P < 0.001) was significantly explained by mean age [pooled RR (95% CI) 2.60 (2.38–2.84) for mean age < 60 years vs. pooled RR (95% CI) 1.95 (1.79–2.13) for mean age ≥ 60 years] (P < 0.001). Pooled RRs (95% CI) of seven and eight studies, respectively, that separately examined HFpEF and HFrEF risk were 2.22 (2.02–2.43) for HFpEF and 2.73 (2.71–2.75) for HFrEF. The risk magnitudes between HFpEF and HFrEF were not significantly different in studies that examined both HFpEF and HFrEF risks (P = 0.86). For recurrent HF, pooled RR (95% CI) of the 38 studies was 1.39 (1.33–1.45). The large between‐study heterogeneity (I² = 80.1%, P < 0.001) was significantly explained by the proportion of men [pooled RR (95% CI) 1.53 (1.40–1.68) for < 65% men vs. 1.32 (1.25–1.39) for ≥65% men (P = 0.01)] or the large pooled RR for studies of only participants with HFpEF [pooled RR (95% CI), 1.73 (1.32–2.26) (P = 0.002)]. Results indicate that DM is a significant risk factor for both new‐onset and recurrent HF. It is suggested that the risk magnitude is large for new‐onset HF especially in young populations and for recurrent HF especially in women or individuals with HFpEF. DM is associated with future HFpEF and HFrEF to the same extent.

Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation in the 21st Century: Novel Methods and New Insights

Accompanying the aging of populations worldwide, and increased survival with chronic diseases, the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) are rising, justifying the term global epidemic. This multifactorial arrhythmia is intertwined with common concomitant cardiovascular diseases, which share classical cardiovascular risk factors. Targeted prevention programs are largely missing. Prevention needs to start at an early age with primordial interventions at the population level. The public health dimension of AF motivates research in modifiable AF risk factors and improved precision in AF prediction and management. In this review, we summarize current knowledge in an attempt to untangle these multifaceted associations from an epidemiological perspective. We discuss disease trends, preventive opportunities offered by underlying risk factors and concomitant disorders, current developments in diagnosis and risk prediction, and prognostic implications of AF and its complications. Finally, we review current technological (eg, eHealth) and methodological (artificial intelligence) advances and their relevance for future prevention and disease management.

Advancing Research on the Complex Interrelations Between Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure: A Report From a US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Virtual Workshop

The interrelationships between atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are complex and poorly understood, yet the number of patients with AF and HF continues to increase worldwide. Thus, there is a need for initiatives that prioritize research on the intersection between AF and HF. This article summarizes the proceedings of a virtual workshop convened by the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute to identify important research opportunities in AF and HF. Key knowledge gaps were reviewed and research priorities were proposed for characterizing the pathophysiological overlap and deleterious interactions between AF and HF; preventing HF in people with AF; preventing AF in individuals with HF; and addressing symptom burden and health status outcomes in AF and HF. These research priorities will hopefully help inform, encourage, and stimulate innovative, cost-efficient, and transformative studies to enhance the outcomes of patients with AF and HF.

Modifiable risk factors predict incident atrial fibrillation and heart failure

Objective

Heart failure (HF) frequently complicates atrial fibrillation (AF) and significantly increases mortality risk. Limited data exist on the modifiable risk factors associated with development of HF in AF patients.

Methods

We examined two large, prospective, population-based cohorts without prior AF or HF at baseline: Malmö Preventive Project (MPP, n=32 625) and Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS, n=27 695). Using Lunn-McNeil competing risks, multivariable Cox models were constructed to determine hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of risk factors for incident HF with AF, and AF alone.

Results

Mean follow-up in MPP and MDCS was 27.6±8.4 and 17.7±5.3 years. In MPP, body mass index (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.13 vs HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.06 per kg/m²), systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.26 vs HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.10 per 10 mm Hg) and current cigarette smoking (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.95 vs HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.32) had stronger associations with incident AF with HF compared with AF alone (all p for difference <0.0001). Similar results were observed in MDCS (all p for difference <0.009). These three risk factors and diabetes accounted for 51.8% and 54.1% of the population attributable risk (PAR) for AF with HF in MPP and MDCS, respectively, compared with 20.1% and 27.0% for AF alone.

Conclusions

Obesity, hypertension and active smoking preferentially associated with AF with HF, compared with AF alone, and accounted for >50% of the PAR. Randomised trials are needed to assess whether risk factor modification can reduce the incidence of AF with HF and reduce mortality.

Predictors of heart failure development in type 2 diabetes: a practical approach

Purpose of review

Although type 2 diabetes (T2D) is one of the most important risk factors that leads to the development of de novo heart failure, there are limited data, particularly from a practical/qualitative standpoint, about predictors of heart failure in this population.

Recent findings

Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors have been shown to prevent the development of heart failure and the composite of heart failure and cardiovascular death in patients with T2D without known heart failure who have either established atherosclerotic vascular disease or multiple risk factors. The concept of primary prevention of heart failure has led many clinicians to inquire if there are specific risk/enrichment factors that may predict an increased risk of heart failure.

Summary

In this review, we identify some general and diabetes-specific risk factors that are associated with an increased risk of developing heart failure in people with T2D.

Exercise-Related Acute Cardiovascular Events and Potential Deleterious Adaptations Following Long-Term Exercise Training: Placing the Risks Into Perspective-An Update: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Epidemiological and biological plausibility studies support a cause-and-effect relationship between increased levels of physical activity or cardiorespiratory fitness and reduced coronary heart disease events. These data, plus the well-documented anti-aging effects of exercise, have likely contributed to the escalating numbers of adults who have embraced the notion that "more exercise is better." As a result, worldwide participation in endurance training, competitive long distance endurance events, and high-intensity interval training has increased markedly since the previous American Heart Association statement on exercise risk. On the other hand, vigorous physical activity, particularly when performed by unfit individuals, can acutely increase the risk of sudden cardiac death and acute myocardial infarction in susceptible people. Recent studies have also shown that large exercise volumes and vigorous intensities are both associated with potential cardiac maladaptations, including accelerated coronary artery calcification, exercise-induced cardiac biomarker release, myocardial fibrosis, and atrial fibrillation. The relationship between these maladaptive responses and physical activity often forms a U- or reverse J-shaped dose-response curve. This scientific statement discusses the cardiovascular and health implications for moderate to vigorous physical activity, as well as high-volume, high-intensity exercise regimens, based on current understanding of the associated risks and benefits. The goal is to provide healthcare professionals with updated information to advise patients on appropriate preparticipation screening and the benefits and risks of physical activity or physical exertion in varied environments and during competitive events.

Type 2 diabetes increases the long-term risk of heart failure and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on non-thromboembolic outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF) is insufficiently explored. This prospective cohort study of AF patients aimed (i) to analyse the association between T2DM and heart failure (HF) events (including new-onset HF), and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, (ii) to assess the impact of baseline T2DM treatment on outcomes, and (iii) to explore characteristics of new-onset HF phenotypes in relation to T2DM status.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Of 1803 AF patients (515/1288, with/without prior HF), 389 (22%) had T2DM at baseline. After 5 years of median follow-up, T2DM patients had an 85% greater risk of HF events [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-2.28; P < 0.001], including a 45% increased risk for new-onset HF (1.45; 1.17-2.28; P = 0.015). T2DM conferred a 56% higher all-cause (1.56, 1.22-2.01; P = 0.003) and a 48% higher cardiovascular mortality (1.48; 1.34-1.93; P = 0.007). Fine-Gray analysis, with mortality as a competing risk, confirmed greater HF risk among T2DM patients. All risks were highest among insulin-treated patients. The prevalence of new-onset HF phenotypes was as follows: 67% preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), 20% mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and 13% reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). On time-dependent Cox regression, adjusted for baseline characteristics and an interim acute coronary event, T2DM increased aHRs for new-onset HFpEF (2.38; 1.30-4.58; P <0.001) and the combined HFmrEF/HFrEF (1.77; 1.11-3.62; P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Atrial fibrillation patients with T2DM have independently increased risk of new-onset/recurrent HF events, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, particularly when insulin-treated. The prevailing phenotype of new-onset HF was HFpEF; T2DM conferred higher risk of both HFpEF and HFmrEF/HFrEF.

Cardioprotective diabetes drugs: what cardiologists need to know

In patients with diabetes, where cardiovascular morbidity is highly prevalent, recent cardiovascular outcomes trials have identified therapies in the modern glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) classes that significantly reduce cardiovascular events. A number of drugs in both classes have demonstrated reductions in the risk of the composite outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death). In addition, SGLT2i drugs have a substantial impact on hospitalization for heart failure. Because GLP-1RA and SGLT2i are effective in reducing cardiovascular events, independent of their effects on blood glucose, cardiologists should be familiar with how to use them. This review outlines the evidence of cardiovascular benefit for current GLP-1RA and SGLT2i drugs, practical information for prescribing them, and putative mechanisms, so that these therapies can be incorporated along with antihypertensives, statins, and antiplatelet therapies into the routine care of patients.

Refining the Association Between Body Mass Index and Atrial Fibrillation: G-Formula and Restricted Mean Survival Times

Background

Previous studies assessing the association between body mass index (BMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) did not account for time‐varying covariates, which may be affected by previous BMI. We illustrate how the g‐formula can account for time‐varying confounding.

Methods and Results

We included 4392 participants from the Framingham Heart Study who were AF free at ages 45 to 55 years, and followed them for up to 20 years. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) comparing time‐varying nonobese versus obese with Cox models. We used the g‐formula to compare nonobese versus obese and 10% annual decrease in BMI (until normal weight is reached) versus natural course. We estimated HRs and differences in restricted mean survival times, the mean difference in time alive and AF free. We adjusted for sex, age, and time‐varying risk factors. Cox models indicated that nonobese participants had a decreased rate of AF versus obese participants (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72–0.97). G‐formula analyses comparing everyone had they been nonobese versus obese yielded stronger associations (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.58–0.91). The restricted mean survival time was 19.22 years had everyone been nonobese and 19.03 years had everyone been obese (difference, 2.25 months; 95% CI, −0.66 to 5.16). When assessing a 10% annual decrease in BMI, the association was weaker (HR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86–1.08).

Conclusions

Decreased BMI was associated with a lower rate of AF after accounting for time‐varying covariates that depend on previous exposure using the g‐formula, which Cox models cannot accommodate. Absolute measures like the restricted mean survival time difference offer context to relative measures of association.

Hypertension and Atrial Fibrillation: Doubts and Certainties From Basic and Clinical Studies

Hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF) are 2 important public health priorities. Their prevalence is increasing worldwide, and the 2 conditions often coexist in the same patient. Hypertension and AF are strikingly related to an excess risk of cardiovascular disease and death. Hypertension ultimately increases the risk of AF, and because of its high prevalence in the population, it accounts for more cases of AF than other risk factors. Among patients with established AF, hypertension is present in about 60% to 80% of individuals. Despite the well-known association between hypertension and AF, several pathogenetic mechanisms underlying the higher risk of AF in hypertensive patients are still incompletely known. From an epidemiological standpoint, it is unclear whether the increasing risk of AF with blood pressure (BP) is linear or threshold. It is uncertain whether an intensive control of BP or the use of specific antihypertensive drugs, such as those inhibiting the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, reduces the risk of subsequent AF in hypertensive patients in sinus rhythm. Finally, in spite of the observational evidence suggesting a progressive relation between BP levels and the risk of thromboembolism and bleeding in patients with hypertension and AF, the extent to which BP should be lowered in these patients, including those who undergo catheter ablation, remains uncertain. This article summarizes the main basic mechanisms through which hypertension is believed to promote AF. It also explores epidemiological data supporting an evolutionary pathway from hypertension to AF, including the emerging evidence favoring an intensive BP control or the use of drugs, which inhibit the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system to reduce the risk of AF. Finally, it examines the impact of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin in relation to hypertension.

Blood Pressure and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older Patients Initiating Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

We examined the association of predialysis systolic and diastolic BP and intradialytic hypotension with incident atrial fibrillation in older patients initiating hemodialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used the US Renal Data System linked to the records of a large dialysis provider to identify patients aged ≥67 years initiating hemodialysis between January 2006 and October 2011. We examined quarterly average predialysis systolic BP, diastolic BP, and proportion of sessions with intradialytic hypotension (i.e., nadir systolic BP <90 mm Hg). We applied an extended Cox model to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of each exposure with incident atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

Among 17,003 patients, 3785 developed atrial fibrillation. When comparing predialysis systolic BP to a fixed reference of 140 mm Hg, lower predialysis systolic BP was associated with a higher hazard of atrial fibrillation, whereas higher systolic BP was associated with a lower hazard of atrial fibrillation. When comparing across a range of systolic BP for two hypothetical patients with similar measured covariates, the association varied by mean systolic BP: at systolic BP 190 mm Hg, each 10 mm Hg lower systolic BP was associated with lower atrial fibrillation hazard (HR, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.00), whereas at systolic BP 140 mm Hg, a 10 mm Hg lower systolic BP was associated with a higher atrial fibrillation hazard (HR, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.14). Lower diastolic BP was associated with higher atrial fibrillation hazards. Intradialytic hypotension was weakly associated with atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSIONS

In this observational study of older patients initiating hemodialysis, lower predialysis systolic BP and diastolic BP were associated with higher incidence of atrial fibrillation.

Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure in Women

Atrial fibrillation often occurs as a cause or consequence of heart failure. Clinical outcomes are worse when atrial fibrillation and heart failure coexist. There are important sex-related differences in the incidence, prevalence, pathophysiology, treatment, and outcomes of these patients. Women with heart failure are at greater risk of developing atrial fibrillation than men, and more women with atrial fibrillation develop heart failure. More women die of atrial fibrillation-related strokes. Despite significant morbidity and mortality, current treatments for women are inadequate. This review explores sex differences in atrial fibrillation and heart failure, emphasizing risk stratification and treatments to improve clinical outcomes.

Atrial fibrillation in athletes and general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of heart arrhythmia, but the impact of long-term, high-intensity endurance exercise on the risk of AF remains uncertain.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library databases were searched till Nov 2017 to retrieve the articles. The included studies were summarized, pooled odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. Both fixed and random effects models were used to combine the data. Stratified and logistic meta-regression analyses were performed to explore the sources of heterogeneity across studies.

RESULTS

Nine studies including 2308 athletes and 6593 controls were eligible. Our results showed that the risk of AF was significantly higher in athletes than in general population (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 1.04-5.28, Pheterogeneity<.001, I = 92.3%). Subgroup analysis based on gender and mean age demonstrated a significantly increased risk in men (OR = 4.03, 95% CI = 1.73-9.42, Pheterogeneity<.001, I = 82.7%) and participants with mean age <60 (OR = 3.24, 95% CI = 1.23-8.55, Pheterogeneity<.001, I = 84.3%). Furthermore, subgroup analysis based on type of athletes demonstrated a significantly increased risk of AF in participants with single type of sport (OR = 3.97, 95% CI = 1.16-13.62, Pheterogeneity = .018, I = 70.4%). Results remained unchanged after performing sensitivity analysis. Meta-regression showed that gender, age, type of study, sample size, and sports mode were unrelated to heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirmed that the risk of AF was significantly higher in athletes than in general population, especially among men and participants aged <60.

The imminent epidemic of atrial fibrillation and its concomitant diseases - Myocardial infarction and heart failure - A cause for concern

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasingly common in the general population. It often coincides with myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) which are also diseases in older adults. All three conditions share common cardiovascular risk factors. While hypertension and obesity are central risk factors for all three diseases, smoking and diabetes appear to have less impact on AF. To date, age is the single most important risk factor for AF in the general population. Further, epidemiological studies suggest a strong association of AF to MI and HF. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms are complex and not fully understood. Both MI and HF can trigger development of AF, mainly by promoting structural and electrical atrial remodeling. On the other hand, AF facilitates HF and MI development via multiple mechanisms, resulting in a vicious circle of cardiac impairment and adverse cardiovascular prognosis. Consequently, to prevent and treat the coincidence of AF and HF or MI a strict optimization of cardiovascular risk factors is required.

Diabetes mellitus, blood glucose and the risk of heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The strength of the association between diabetes and risk of heart failure has differed between previous studies and the available studies have not been summarized in a meta-analysis. We therefore quantified the association between diabetes and blood glucose and heart failure in a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to May 3rd 2018. Prospective studies on diabetes mellitus or blood glucose and heart failure risk were included. A random effects model was used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Seventy seven studies were included. Among the population-based prospective studies, the summary RR for individuals with diabetes vs. no diabetes was 2.06 (95% CIs: 1.73-2.46, I² = 99.8%, n = 30 studies, 401495 cases, 21416780 participants). The summary RR was 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15-1.32, I² = 78.2%, n = 10, 5344 cases, 91758 participants) per 20 mg/dl increase in blood glucose and there was evidence of a J-shaped association with nadir around 90 mg/dl and increased risk even within the pre-diabetic blood glucose range. Among the patient-based studies the summary RR was 1.69 (95% CI: 1.57-1.81, I² = 85.5%, p_{heterogeneity}<0.0001) for diabetes vs. no diabetes (n = 41, 100284 cases and >613925 participants) and 1.25 (95% CI: 0.89-1.75, I² = 95.6%, p_{heterogeneity}<0.0001) per 20 mg/dl increase in blood glucose (1016 cases, 34309 participants, n = 2). In the analyses of diabetes and heart failure there was low or no heterogeneity among the population-based studies that adjusted for alcohol intake and physical activity and among the patient-based studies there was no heterogeneity among studies with ≥10 years follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that individuals with diabetes are at an increased risk of developing heart failure and there is evidence of increased risk even within the pre-diabetic range of blood glucose.

Clinical characteristics and thromboembolic risk of atrial fibrillation patients with and without congestive heart failure. Results from the CRATF study

Congestive heart failure (CHF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexist and are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events.To compare baseline characteristics, comorbidities and pharmacotherapy in AF patients with concomitant CHF to those without CHF.The study included 3506 real-life AF patients with (37.1%) and without CHF - participants of the multicentre, retrospective MultiCenter expeRience in AFib patients Treated with OAC (CRAFT) trial (NCT02987062).All patients were treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) or vitamin K antagonists (VKA). The frequency of NOAC among patients with and without CHF was 45.6% and 43.2%, respectively (P = .17). Patients with CHF were older (73.3 vs 64.7 years, P <.001), less likely to be women (37.4% vs 42%, P = .007), had higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.8 ± 1.7 vs 2.6 ± 1.8, P <.001), more often had permanent AF (53.0% vs 13.4%, P <.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (16.7% vs 4.9%, P <.001), coronary artery disease (64.3% vs 29.8%, P <.001), peripheral vascular disease (65.3% vs 31.4%, P <.001), chronic kidney disease (43.1% vs 10.0%, P <.001), liver fibrosis (5.7% vs 2.6%, P <.001), neoplasm (9.6% vs 7.3%, P = .05), history of composite of stroke, transient ischemic attack or systemic embolization (16.2% vs 10.7%, P <.001), pacemaker (27.4% vs 22.1%, P = .004), implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (22.7% vs 0.8%, P <.001) or transaortic valve implantation (4.0% vs 0.8%, P <.001), cardiac resynchronization therapy (8.7% vs 0.3%, P <.001), composite of kidney transplantation, hemodialysis or creatinine level > 2.26 mg/dL (3.6% vs 0.8%, P <.001) and had less often hypertension (69.4% vs 72.5%, P = .05).Patients with AF and CHF had a higher thromboembolic risk and had more concomitant diseases.

Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure: Untangling a Modern Gordian Knot

Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) share common risk factors and frequently coexist. Both are highly prevalent in our aging population, and mortality associated with the combination is significantly higher than for each alone. An intricate link exists between AF and HF, including interrelated mechanisms and pathophysiology. Asymptomatic left ventricular systolic or diastolic dysfunction can exacerbate or be exacerbated by AF, resulting in HF with reduced ejection fraction or preserved ejection fraction. A number of treatment strategies have improved symptoms, exercise tolerance, and quality of life for patients with HF, but few have resulted in alteration in prognosis. Sinus rhythm, achieved pharmacologically, has not altered important outcomes, including cardiovascular or total mortality in patients with HF. In recent studies, catheter ablation to achieve sinus rhythm seems to have a significant impact on symptoms, heart function, and possibly mortality. Until future studies can confirm or clarify the impact of catheter ablation on outcomes, the field remains cautious but optimistic that better treatment strategies for patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction or preserved ejection fraction are within reach.

Exercise Training in Heart Failure Patients With Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: a Practical Approach

Persistent AF is present in at least 20 % of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and is related to a poor prognosis and more severe cardiac arrhythmias. CHF and AF share a common pathophysiology and can exacerbate one another. Exercise programmes for people with CHF have been shown to improve aerobic capacity, prognosis and quality of life. Given that patients with both CHF and AF show greater impairment in exercise performance, exercise training programmes have the potential to be highly beneficial. Optimal clinical evaluation using a cardiopulmonary exercise test should be performed before starting a training programme. Heart rate should be calculated over a longer period of time In patients with CHF and AF than those in sinus rhythm. The use of telemetry is advised to measure HR accurately during training. If telemetry is not available, patients can be safely trained based on the concomitant workload. An aerobic exercise training programme of moderate to high intensity, whether or not combined with strength training, is advised in patients with CHF and AF. Optimal training modalities and their intensity require further investigation.

The association between relevant co-morbidities and prevalent as well as incident heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a serious complication in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVE

To study associations between relevant co-morbidities and CHF in patients with AF.

METHODS

Study population included all adults (n=12,283) ≥45 years diagnosed with AF at 75 primary care centers in Sweden 2001-2007. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between co-morbidities, and prevalent CHF. In a subsample (n=9424), (excluding patients with earlier CHF), Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% CIs for the association between co-morbidities, and a first hospital diagnosis of CHF, after adjustment for age and socio-economic factors.

RESULTS

During 5.4 years' follow-up (standard deviation 2.5), 2259 patients (24.0%; 1135 men, 21.8%, and 1124 women, 26.7%) were diagnosed with CHF. Patients with hypertension were less likely to have CHF, while a diagnosis of coronary heart disease, valvular heart disease, diabetes, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), was consistently associated with CHF among men and women. CHF was more common among women with depression. The relative fully adjusted risk of incident CHF was increased for the following diseases in men with AF: valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, and diabetes; and for the following diseases in women: valvular heart disease, diabetes, obesity, and COPD. The corresponding risk was decreased among women for hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

In this clinical setting we found hypertension to be associated with a decreased risk of CHF among women; valvular heart disease and diabetes to be associated with an increased risk of CHF in both sexes; and cardiomyopathy to be associated with an increased risk of CHF among men.

When Silence Isn't Golden: The Case of "Silent" Atrial Fibrillation

Silent atrial fibrillation (AF) is common. In some patients, it is the only manifestation of AF, while in others, the AF may be symptomatic or both symptomatic and asymptomatic. Regardless, however, to date, the significance, detection, and management considerations for silent AF have been incompletely elucidated. This current study aimed to review, for both the current clinician and investigator, considerations and attitudes and the ongoing studies, respectively, with respect to silent AF. The methods used were a literature review and personal trial and clinical experience; the frequency of silent AF, concerns regarding silent AF, methods to detect silent AF, and prospective trials focused on the detection and management of silent AF were considered. The results of the literature search indicated that recently conducted relevant trials, such as PREDATE AF, ASSERT-II, and REVEAL AF, have shown that silent AF is frequent in patients with risk markers for AF and stroke in whom no prior AF history is present, and in whom no pacemaker or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantations have been previously performed. Furthermore, the GLORIA-AF Registry has reported the observance of more permanent AF and more prior strokes in asymptomatic patients. Ongoing trials such as ARTESiA and NOAH-AFNET 6 are expected to clarify the benefits and risks of oral anticoagulation in patients with silent AF. At present, when silent AF is detected in patients with stroke risk markers, most practitioners initiate an anticoagulation regimen.