The Metabolic Vulnerability Index: A Novel Marker for Mortality Prediction in Heart Failure

Cross-sectional evaluation of the metabolic vulnerability index in heart failure populations

BACKGROUND

The Metabolic Vulnerability Index (MVX) is a novel multi-marker risk score derived from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measures and has shown predictive value for mortality in heart failure. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the distribution of MVX and its clinical correlates within a clinical trial population and a comparable subpopulation of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and ischemic heart disease within a community cohort.

METHODS

We studied a clinical trial (2016-2018) and a community cohort (2003-2012), matched based on ejection fraction category and presence of ischemic heart failure. NMR LipoProfile analyses of plasma from both populations provided measures of valine, leucine, isoleucine, citrate, GlycA, and small high-density lipoprotein particles used to compute sex-specific MVX scores. Univariable and multivariable regression models assessed the relationship between MVX (modeled continuously), and selected demographic and clinical covariates.

RESULTS

Clinical trial patients (N = 101, median age: 63, 93% male, median EF: 28%) were younger and predominantly male compared to the cohort (N = 288, median age: 75, 70% male, median EF: 30%). The median MVX score was lower in the clinical trial (50, 42-61) compared to the cohort (66, 58-73). Male sex and hyperlipidemia were linked to higher MVX scores in the clinical trial, while obesity and NT-proBNP were linked to lower and higher MVX scores, respectively, in the cohort (p <.05). After adjusting for significant covariates from univariable analyses and age in multivariable analyses, only the associations between male sex and MVX scores in the clinical trial, and NT-proBNP levels with MVX in the cohort remained significant.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights significant differences in MVX distribution and its clinical correlates between a clinical trial and a community cohort despite matched heart failure subtypes. These findings have important implications for interpreting and applying the score in diverse study settings.

The metabolic vulnerability index as a novel tool for mortality risk stratification in a large-scale population-based cohort

Metabolic malnutrition and inflammation-key mechanism links to redox imbalance-are fundamental pathologies that accelerate aging and disease progression, ultimately leading to death. The recently proposed metabolic vulnerability index (MVX) integrates multiple circulatory biomarkers closely linked to both metabolic and inflammatory factors. This study aims to assess MVX's potential to predict mortality in community-based population. In this large community-based prospective study, we included UK Biobank participants who underwent plasma metabolomics analysis. Gender-specific MVX scores were calculated based on six established biomarkers of mortality. Linear and non-linear associations between MVX and mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline models, respectively. Among the 274,092 UKB participants, 24,241 all-cause deaths occurred during a median follow-up period of 13.7 years. A significant, graded positive association was observed between MVX quartiles and all-cause mortality risk (P for trend <0.05), with the highest MVX quartile exhibiting the greatest risk (HR = 1.21 and 95 % CI = 1.16-1.25 after full adjustment). Females had higher MVX score than males (P < 0.05), but males with the same MVX score faced a greater mortality risk. Baseline age and comorbidities interacted (P for interaction <0.05 and synergy index >1) with MVX on mortality risk. Longitudinal analyses showed that females with persistently high MVX score had a significantly increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.39 in fully adjusted model). Collectively, these findings highlight MVX as a novel tool that captures metabolic and potential redox vulnerabilities in community residents, and serves as a valuable resource for identifying high-risk individuals of mortality. Further research is warranted to investigate the underlying mechanisms and establish causal relationships.

Prognostic value of tryptophan catabolism-base scores in acute myocardial infarction patients

AIMS

Tryptophan catabolism is implicated in the progression of cardiovascular disease. We sought to investigate the prognostic value of tryptophan catabolism-related features in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A prospective cohort of 4071 patients (mean age: 60.7 years; 69.1 % men) with AMI between February 2017 and June 2019 was included and followed up for a median of 5.6 years (IQR 5.1-6.2). There were 666 all-cause deaths, 365 cardiovascular deaths, and 559 HF events. Plasma levels of tryptophan-related metabolites were measured using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), and were repeatedly determined in 1044 patients after discharge. Tryptophan, kynurenine, indole-3-propionic acid, and indole-3-lactic acid were screened to construct tryptophan metabolites combination (TMC) score using coefficients from predictive models for MACE. Patients were divided into 3 groups by TMC tertiles. Patients with higher TMC score were older, more likely to be male and have hypertension. Compared to those with TMC tertile 1, patients in TMC tertile 3 had significant associations with the risk of all-cause death (HR: 1.90; 95 %CI: 1.54-2.34), cardiovascular death (HR: 2.32; 95 %CI: 1.71-3.15) and incident HF (HR: 1.77; 95 %CI: 1.40-2.24). The incremental prognostic value of TMC score over the Grace score was measured by the likelihood ratio, C-statistic, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) for prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this hospital-based AMI cohort, the TMC score was significantly associated with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and incident HF, and improved risk stratification beyond established clinical risk factors. The TMC score provided a novel tool for assessment of Trp catabolism dysfunction and outcomes risk.

Examining the relationship between preoperative nutritional and symptom assessment and postoperative atrial fibrillation in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to examine the relationship between preoperative nutritional status, symptom burden, and the occurrence of postoperative atrial fibrillation in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma patients.

METHODS

The study, conducted in the Department of Thoracic Surgery at the Affiliated Huai'an No. 1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, applied the NRS 2002, SGA and MSAS scoring systems as measures of nutritional status and symptom occurrence in patients diagnosed with ESCC. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to evaluate the association between nutritional scores, symptom scores, and postoperative complications.

RESULTS

The research found a significant correlation between high MSAS scores and postoperative atrial fibrillation. Patients with high symptom burden also tended to have nutritional risk or malnutrition according to the NRS2002 and SGA scores.

CONCLUSION

There is a need for healthcare providers to pay attention to ESCC patients' physical and psychological symptoms. Close monitoring of nutritional status and timely nutritional interventions should be integrated into these patients' care plans as they have been found to be related to postoperative complications such as atrial fibrillation.

Frailty and Metabolic Vulnerability in Heart Failure: A Community Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is common in heart failure (HF) and is associated with death but not routinely captured clinically. Frailty is linked with inflammation and malnutrition, which can be assessed by a novel plasma multimarker score: the metabolic vulnerability index (MVX). We sought to evaluate the associations between frailty and MVX and their prognostic impact.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In an HF community cohort (2003-2012), we measured frailty as a proportion of deficits present out of 32 physical limitations and comorbidities, MVX by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and collected extensive longitudinal clinical data. Patients were categorized by frailty score (≤0.14, >0.14 and ≤0.27, >0.27) and MVX score (≤50, >50 and ≤60, >60 and ≤70, >70). Cox models estimated associations of frailty and MVX with death, adjusted for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Uno's C-statistic measured the incremental value of MVX beyond frailty and clinical factors. Weibull's accelerated failure time regression assessed whether MVX mediated the association between frailty and death. We studied 985 patients (median age, 77; 48% women). Frailty and MVX were weakly correlated (Spearman's ρ=0.21). The highest frailty group experienced an increased rate of death, independent of MVX, MAGGIC score, and NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 3.3 [95% CI, 2.5-4.2]). Frailty improved Uno's c-statistic beyond MAGGIC score and NT-proBNP (0.69-0.73). MVX only mediated 3.3% and 4.5% of the association between high and medium frailty groups and death, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this HF cohort, frailty and MVX are weakly correlated. Both independently contribute to stratifying the risk of death, suggesting that they capture distinct domains of vulnerability in HF.

Incremental Value of a Metabolic Risk Score for Heart Failure Mortality: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Heart failure is heterogeneous syndrome with persistently high mortality. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy enables high-throughput metabolomics, suitable for precision phenotyping. We aimed to use targeted metabolomics to derive a metabolic risk score (MRS) that improved mortality risk stratification in heart failure.

METHODS

Nuclear magnetic resonance was used to measure 21 metabolites (lipoprotein subspecies, branched-chain amino acids, alanine, GlycA (glycoprotein acetylation), ketone bodies, glucose, and citrate) in plasma collected from a heart failure community cohort. The MRS was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalized Cox regression and temporal validation. The association between the MRS and mortality and whether risk stratification was improved over the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure clinical risk score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels were assessed.

RESULTS

The study included 1382 patients (median age, 78 years, 52% men, 43% reduced ejection fraction) with a 5-year survival rate of 48% (95% CI, 46%-51%). The MRS included 9 metabolites measured. In the validation data set, a 1 standard deviation increase in the MRS was associated with a large increased rate of death (hazard ratio, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.9-2.5]) that remained after adjustment for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score and NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]). These associations did not differ by ejection fraction. The integrated discrimination and net reclassification indices, and Uno's C statistic, indicated that the addition of the MRS improved discrimination over Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure and NT-proBNP.

CONCLUSIONS

This MRS developed in a heart failure community cohort was associated with a large excess risk of death and improved risk stratification beyond an established risk score and clinical markers.

Low Valine Serum Levels Predict Increased 1-Year Mortality in Acute Heart Failure Patients

Considering the relationship between disease severity and the extent of metabolic derangement in heart failure, we hypothesized that the serum levels of metabolites may have prognostic value for 1-year mortality in acute heart failure (AHF). The AHF study was a prospective, observational study enrolling consecutive patients hospitalized due to AHF. Metabolites were measured in serum collected at admission using NMR spectroscopy. Out of 315 AHF patients, 118 (37.5%) died within 1 year after hospitalization for AHF. The serum levels of 8 out of 49 identified metabolites were significantly different between patients who were alive and those who died within 1 year after hospitalization for AHF. Of these, only valine was significantly associated with 1-year mortality (hazard ratio 0.73 per 1 standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.90, p = 0.003) in the multivariable Cox regression analyses. Kaplan-Maier analysis showed significantly higher survival rates in AHF patients with valine levels above the median (>279.2 µmol/L) compared to those with valine levels ≤ 279.2 µmol/L. In a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, valine was able to discriminate between the two groups with an area under the curve of 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.72). We conclude that valine serum levels might be of prognostic value in AHF.