Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Flooding-induced mortality of loggerhead sea turtle eggs

Abstract ContextMarine turtle eggs incubate in dynamic beaches, where they are vulnerable to both saltwater and freshwater flooding. Understanding the capacity for marine turtle eggs to tolerate flooding will aid management efforts to predict and mitigate the impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise and increases in coastal flooding. AimsEvaluate the interactive effects of flooding duration and incubation stage on the hatching success of loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) eggs. MethodsGroups of 20 eggs from multiple clutches were incubated in plastic containers in a beach hatchery. Eggs at six stages of incubation (0, 1, 2, 4, 6 and 7 weeks post-oviposition) were excavated from the hatchery and exposed to saltwater or freshwater flooding for seven durations of time (0, 1, 2, 3, 6, 24 or 48h). Containers of eggs were either submerged in a bucket of water or left outside of the bucket (control; no flooding) for their designated duration, allowed to drain, then reburied in the hatchery. Following hatchling emergence, the hatching success of each group of eggs was evaluated. Key resultsFreshly laid eggs and eggs on the verge of hatching exposed to any flooding and all eggs exposed to extended periods of flooding (24 and 48h) suffered complete mortality. Eggs at 20–80% development exposed to short periods of flooding (1–6h) maintained high hatching success that was statistically equivalent to control eggs, while eggs at <20% and >80% development exhibited significant decreases in hatching success. ConclusionsMarine turtle eggs in the middle of incubation can tolerate saltwater and freshwater flooding for up to 6h. Outside of this period or when flooding is longer, disruption of gas concentrations and osmotic gradients in the egg chamber can lead to embryonic mortality. These findings have reinforced concerns regarding the capacity for marine turtle populations to continue to function as rising sea levels and increases in coastal flooding alter the hydrology of nesting beaches. ImplicationsAs current and predicted climate change threatens the suitability of the incubation environment used by marine turtles, corrective actions to maximise hatching success need to be taken before the eggs are flooded.

Eliciting expert judgment to inform management of diverse oyster resources for multiple ecosystem services

This study presents the most comprehensive set of ecosystem service provision estimates for diverse oyster-based resources to date. We use expert elicitation methods to derive estimates of five ecosystem services provided by oysters: oyster harvest (as indicated by oyster density), improved water quality (net nitrogen assimilation), shoreline protection (net erosion), and other fish habitat (blue crab and red drum density). Distributions are estimated for three distinct resources: on-bottom production, off-bottom farms, and non-harvested restoration/conservation efforts, under twelve distinct scenarios according to varying environmental conditions (eutrophication, sedimentation, and salinity regimes). Our expert-derived estimates of ecosystem services provide useful comparisons across oyster resources of both expected ecosystem service delivery levels and the amount of variation in those levels. These estimates bridge an information gap regarding relative performance of diverse oyster resources along multiple dimensions and should serve as a useful guide for resource managers facing competing interests.

Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change

Enhancing species resilience to changing environmental conditions is often suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy. To effectively achieve this, it is necessary first to understand the factors that determine species resilience, and their relative importance in shaping the ability of species to adjust to the complexities of environmental change. This is an extremely challenging task because it requires comprehensive information on species traits. We explored the resilience of 58 marine turtle regional management units (RMUs) to climate change, encompassing all seven species of marine turtles worldwide. We used expert opinion from the IUCN-SSC Marine Turtle Specialist Group (n = 33 respondents) to develop a Resilience Index, which considered qualitative characteristics of each RMU (relative population size, rookery vulnerability, and genetic diversity) and non climate-related threats (fisheries, take, coastal development, and pollution/pathogens). Our expert panel perceived rookery vulnerability (the likelihood of functional rookeries becoming extirpated) and non climate-related threats as having the greatest influence on resilience of RMUs to climate change. We identified the world's 13 least resilient marine turtle RMUs to climate change, which are distributed within all three major ocean basins and include six of the world's seven species of marine turtle. Our study provides the first look at inter- and intra-species variation in resilience to climate change and highlights the need to devise metrics that measure resilience directly. We suggest that this approach can be widely used to help prioritize future actions that increase species resilience to climate change.

Critical research needs for managing coral reef marine protected areas: perspectives of academics and managers

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary policy instrument for managing and protecting coral reefs. Successful MPAs ultimately depend on knowledge-based decision making, where scientific research is integrated into management actions. Fourteen coral reef MPA managers and sixteen academics from eleven research, state and federal government institutions each outlined at least five pertinent research needs for improving the management of MPAs situated in Australian coral reefs. From this list of 173 key questions, we asked members of each group to rank questions in order of urgency, redundancy and importance, which allowed us to explore the extent of perceptional mismatch and overlap among the two groups. Our results suggest the mismatch among MPA managers and academics is small, with no significant difference among the groups in terms of their respective research interests, or the type of questions they pose. However, managers prioritised spatial management and monitoring as research themes, whilst academics identified climate change, resilience, spatial management, fishing and connectivity as the most important topics. Ranking of the posed questions by the two groups was also similar, although managers were less confident about the achievability of the posed research questions and whether questions represented a knowledge gap. We conclude that improved collaboration and knowledge transfer among management and academic groups can be used to achieve similar objectives and enhance the knowledge-based management of MPAs.