Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling

Integrated assessment and mapping of provisioning services for sustainable management of natural resources, the case of Lake Hawassa Basin, Ethiopia

Lake Hawassa Basin (LHB)-the study area is known for its rich and diverse aquatic and terrestrial natural resource base. However, the prevailing environmental and social problems, such as land degradation, deforestation, pollution, resource exploitation, etc. impacted the existing provisioning services (PS), and the effect becomes remarkable unless sound management is in place. The study aimed at the assessment and mapping of PS to suggest development options for decision-makers. The study employed various methods including primary and secondary data collection, including existing Land Use Land Cover (LULC), desk review, stakeholder consultations, site visits, expert judgment matrix, and ArcGIS v10.1. The study results include 6 PS identified and prioritized from the existing 14 PS, mapping of the spatial pattern of the selected 6 PS at the basin scale, and alternative development options recommended for the decision-making process conducted by decision-makers and development partners to ensure efficient management of ecosystem services in LHB. The importance of this study, as well as the simplicity and user-friendly nature of the methods and approach adopted, enables interested parties to replicate while conducting similar studies in different places within the country or globally. The intervention of adopting this study approach helps also to avoid or minimize the aforesaid biophysical and socioeconomic environmental problems and ensure development activities planned or implemented in the respective study area are environmentally friendly, and socially acceptable, through sustainable management of natural resources. In this regard, decision-makers and development partners shall provide adequate consideration for this study approach and the result of demonstrating basin scale spatial variability of PS. This plays a vital role in the sustainable management of natural resources as well as provisioning services existing in the study area to benefit the community members, ensure human well-being, and secure the livelihood of the people residing within or around the Lake Hawassa Basin.

Investigating socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change via remote sensing and a data-driven ranking algorithm

The necessity for extensive historical data, variables, and weight determination still presents challenges and complexity, notwithstanding the growth in research on socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change. In order to fill in these gaps, this study used China's Fujian Province as a case study to propose a unique strategic approach for studying socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change from 2000 to 2020 by utilizing remote sensing and the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In a GIS scenario, this method employs a comprehensive framework with a wide variety of indicators and a data-driven ranking algorithm. The findings of this study revealed a moderate degree of socio-ecological vulnerability throughout the coast, with significant regional heterogeneity in its spatial distribution. Furthermore, throughout the course of the two-decade, the highly vulnerable zones expanded by 6.04%, outpacing the low-risk areas by 1116 km2 (61.41%) and 2066 km2 (123.39%), respectively, with the majority of the increase taking place in Fuzhou and Ningde. These changes in vulnerability were shown to be principally influenced by changes in vegetation, precipitation, GDP, and land use (LULC). The major influence of precipitation was highlighted further in the spatial autocorrelation analysis, which demonstrated a close correlation between growing socio-ecological vulnerability and increased precipitation. To conclude, this study's methodology differs from other socio-ecological vulnerability studies in that it is flexible and self-sufficient, offering users a choice of weight application. It also gives a more useful, accurate, and suggestive model to enable decision-makers or stakeholders build strategies or ideas for constructing more resilient coastal systems.

Mapping and assessing ecosystem services for sustainable policy and decision-making in Eritrea

The mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services (MAES) is key to inform sustainable policy and decision-making at national and sub-national levels. Responding to the paucity of research in sub-Saharan Africa, we conduct a pilot study for Eritrea that aims to map and assess the temporal dynamics of key ecosystems and their services. We reviewed policy and legal documents, analyzed land cover changes and estimated the potential for ecosystem services supply through an expert-based matrix approach. Our results showed that from 2015 to 2019, the potential supply of the ecosystem services analyzed (e.g., crop provisioning, water supply and recreation) increased, with the exception of wood supply. Overall, our study presents policy-relevant insights as to where to conserve, develop, or restore ecosystem services supply in Eritrea. Our approach is transferable to similar data scarce contexts and can thereby support policies toward more sustainable land development for people and nature.

Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020–2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010–2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming–pastoral ecotone.

Expressing carbon storage in economic terms: The case of the upper Omo Gibe Basin in Ethiopia

Terrestrial carbon storage is important for planning decisions regarding climate change. Therefore, modelling the spatial distribution of carbon storage and valuation can help restore the sustainability of the ecosystems. This study aimed at showing the spatial and temporal variations in carbon storage and valuation in the upper Omo Gibe Basin. Land use/cover and carbon pool data based on field data collection and laboratory analyses supported by GIS and remote sensing were used. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) software was used for modelling carbon storage. The Global voluntary carbon market price and Tropical Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) data were used for describing carbon storage in economic terms. ANOVA was carried out to detect significant differences in carbon stock correlation with parameters. The results show that the annual carbon stock declined by 0.37 t/ha and the carbon market declined from USD 25.04 billion in 1988 to USD 24.01 billion in 2018. The highest loss of carbon storage and valuation was found in forest land followed by grazing land. Moreover, carbon stock was positively correlated with NDVI and habitat quality (p < 0.05). Slopes did not affect carbon stock (p > 0.05). This study helps promote and enhance carbon trading.

The Impact of Urbanization on Land: A Biophysical-Based Assessment of Ecosystem Services Loss Supported by Remote Sensed Indicators

Urbanization and related land consumption are one of the main causes of ecosystem services loss. This is especially the case for soil-related services affecting ecosystem functions and limiting accessibility to natural resources. Satellite remote sensing and environmental databases enable in-depth analysis of urban expansion and land changes, which can be used to monitor trends in the provision of ecosystem services. This work aims to describe a multilayered approach to the assessment of biophysical loss of ecosystem services flows in Italy caused by an increase in land consumption in the period 2012–2020. The results show higher losses in wood production, carbon storage, hydrological regime regulation, and pollination in the northern regions of Italy, as well as in some southern regions, such as Campania and Apulia. Habitat quality loss is widespread throughout Italy, whereas crop production loss varies on the basis of the locations in which it occurs and the crop types involved. Loss of arable land and fodder production mainly occurs in northern regions, whereas southern regions have experienced a drop in permanent crop production. This study highlights the importance of using integrated data and methodologies for well-founded approaches, with a view to gaining a thorough understanding of ecosystem services-related processes and the changes connected therewith.

Ecosystem services and disservices in the Luanhe River Basin in China under past, current and future land uses: implications for the sustainable development goals

Understanding how ecosystem services (ES) and ecosystem disservices (EDS) are affected by human-induced landscape changes is important to minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies between Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets, and for equitable development across governance scales. However, limited research investigates how ES and EDS can change under past, current, and future land uses. This study, conducted in the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), demonstrates the interaction between humans and the environment under past, current, and future land uses at the river basin scale in China, using a stakeholders' participatory capacity matrix to characterise both ES and EDS. Results indicate that forests and water bodies provided the highest overall ES capacity, while the lowest scores were reached in built-up and unused land areas. Built-up land and cropland provided the highest overall EDS, while the lowest EDS scores were for water bodies. By applying the ecosystem services potential index (ESPI) and ecosystem disservices potential index (EDSPI), we found that the ESPI of all the ES declined from 1980 to 2018 and would continue to decline until 2030 without sustainable and conservation development strategies in the LRB. The EDSPI under all future scenarios in 2030 was projected to increase compared to the baseline in 1980. This study recommends establishing and implementing sustainable environmental protection policies and cross-regional and trans-provincial eco-compensation schemes for minimising trade-offs in ES. The study proposes an integrated research framework that could be useful for understanding the effect of historical and future human-environment interactions on ES and EDS, and SDGs achievement.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01078-8.

Ecosystem services trade-offs informing impacts of marine aquaculture development in the southern Caspian Sea

Humans have always benefited from marine ecosystems and the use of their services has increased over time. The principal challenge of managing ecosystem services is that they are not independent of each other. Attempts to optimize a single service have often led to the reductions or losses of other services; in other words, they are "traded-offs". Based on the purpose of assessing the impacts of marine aquaculture development in the Southern Caspian Sea, 3 management scenarios were utilized to model 3 categories, including marine aquaculture, Water Quality (WQ) and Habitat Risk Assessment (HRA) through marine Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). Marine aquaculture model was first considered for Oncorhynchus mykiss that the results were as follows: in the baseline scenario with 9 farms, the amounts of the total weight of fish produced and Net Present Value (NPV) measured during 1 year equaled 1970 tons and 2,247,000 dollars; in the conservation scenario with 4 farms, their amounts were 800 tons and 1 million dollars; in the expansion scenario with an increased number of farms (20 farms), their amounts were estimated to be 4000 tons and 5 million dollars, respectively. The results of the marine aquaculture model were utilized as the inputs both to WQ (amount of BOD released from each farm) and HRA (habitats of four species of fish (Rutilus frisii kutum, Acipenser stellatus, Acipenser persicus, and Huso huso) models. The results revealed 41%, 16%, and 60% of WQ reductions and 35%, 20%, and 45% of HRA changes in the baseline, conservation, and expansion scenarios, respectively. Considering the current production of 9 existing farms (1970 tons per year) and the impact of this production on water quality (41%) and habitat risk (35%), it is recommended to reduce this production volume and doing aquaculture development in the Southern Caspian Sea without considering and managing negative consequences can have dangerous consequences for this sensitive ecosystem.

Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review

Terrestrial ecosystem services (ES) are vulnerable to land use and land cover changes (LULCC). These changes are triggered by different drivers of change (e.g., economic, social, political, environmental - climate change). Understanding the potential future LULCC is an effective way to anticipate the impacts on ES supply. In recent years, some researchers applied different spatial modelling methods to assess the potential LULCC future impacts on ES supply, but so far, no systematic review was carried out. This work aims to do a bibliographic review about future LULCC and their implications on ES supply (provisioning, regulating, and cultural services). After a rigorous bibliographic review, we identified 957 papers. However, only 79 papers meet the criteria to be used in the review. The results showed that (i) the studies have been mainly focused on Asia (55.70%) and Europe (17,72%); (ii) the most common and extensively used models to project future LULCC were cellular automata (30.86%), CLUE-S model (8.64%) and Land Change Modeler (8.64%); and (iii) the most used methods to assess future impacts on ES were the InVEST model (24.04%), and equations used in previous works (12.5%). These studies were mainly focused on measuring future impacts on provisioning (44.11%) and regulating services (43.59%). Also, most of the works lack external validation. The diversity of studies evaluated allowed to recognise gaps and outline insights into the current scientific research on this scientific domain, representing an essential contribution to the current state of knowledge by supporting both practitioners and scientists.

Assessment of wood provisioning in protected subtropical forest areas for sustainable management beyond the zone

Among the ecosystem services that humans use from forest ecosystems, wood resources are one of the basic services that are essential to human life. Since the use of wood resources disturbs ecosystems, overharvesting destroys local ecosystems, resulting in a decline in ecosystem services. Therefore, there is a need to balance the use of wood resources by people with the health of the ecosystem. In this study, we evaluated wood provisioning in newly established national parks in Okinawa Main Island, Japan, for future sustainable management. We clarified the spatial distribution between the forest stand volume obtained from LiDAR data, the logging sites before the national park designation, and national park zoning. We found that the buffer zone contains some forests with high stand volume that continue from the core area. There had not been much logging in recent years, but most logging sites were located in the buffer zone and within 200m from roads. Forests with aged stands and high stand volume are important as buffers to prevent isolation of the core area. Therefore, park managers need to consider not only the legal regulations for each zone but also the continuity with the surrounding natural environment to prevent isolation of the core area. Understanding the spatial distribution of wood resources and park zoning relationships at a fine-scale resolution will be useful for managing buffer zones where there is competition between conservation and resource use.

Land use land cover change and the resilience of social-ecological systems in a sub-region in South west Cameroon

The old paradigm of horizontal expansion of agricultural land and built-up areas over highland and lowland ecosystems remains highly prevalent in Cameroon, causing significant changes in LULC and undermining the resilience and sustainability of social-ecological systems. We analysed satellite imagery of 1986 and 2018 to examine the extent and spatial patterns of LULCC in Fako sub-region of Cameroon. In addition, we explored the likelihood of LULCC and magnitude of impact of the drivers and predictors of LULCC in the sub-region by engaging 25 stakeholders in a focus group survey. Other cultivated areas of cropland, built-up, oil palm, and banana plantation covers increased by 21,360 ha (10.5%), 3152 ha (1.6%), 5721 ha (2.8%), and 1823 ha (0.9%), while dense forest, rubber and tea plantation covers decreased by - 44,945 ha (- 22.1%), - 15,557 ha (- 7.7%), and - 110 ha (- 0.1%), respectively, from 1986 to 2018. Most of the deforestation and LULCC was caused by expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland by smallholders, contrary to the widely publicised narrative of agro-industrial and built-up areas expansion. The spatial pattern of LULCC showed that expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland and agro-industrial plantations were highest in the north and east zones, respectively, while expansion of built-up areas and decrease in agro-industrial plantation covers were highest in the central, south and western coastal zones of Fako division. The variations in the spatial patterns of LULCC between the sub-divisions are attributed to differences in rates of population growth and urbanisation, topography, size of farming population, proportion of cultivable land, socio-economic opportunities, and strength and resilience of local economy. The presence of the Mount Cameroon (4095 m), with high value forests, endemism, and conservation attractiveness restricted increased LULCC with elevation, while LULCC increased with nearness to the sea and national road networks. The likelihood of change from one LULC to oil palm plantation, banana plantation, and other cultivated areas and from rubber plantation, dense forest, lowland grassland to other land uses was 95% and 90%, respectively. Population growth, agricultural and farmland expansion, and infrastructural development were ranked as the three most important drivers of degradation under the business as usual scenario, while sustainable land management, good governance, and reforestation were ranked as the three most important predictors of LULCC reduction under the green economy scenario. In general, production and living space functions significantly increased at the expense of ecological land cover. Prioritising and increasing the legal protection of the mountain and coastal land-boundary ecosystems while providing for production and living land are invaluable for the sustainability of the social-ecological systems in the western highlands of Cameroon.

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.

How to balance ecosystem services and economic benefits? - A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China

There is a significant challenge in resource management: the perceived trade-off between economic growth and ecosystem conservation. In this study, we integrate a variety of quantitative research methods and models, such as the ecosystem service value (ESV), interval parameter planning (IPP), Dyna-CLUE, and Monte Carlo methods, in an attempt to balance the ESV and economic benefits. The highest system benefits can be obtained, and uncertainty in the ecosystem assessment is considered. Taking the Pearl River Delta as the study area, the results show that when the GDP growth rate is less than 6%, the ESV in 2025 will be higher than the ESV in 2017. An interval approach (upper and lower bounds) is used. For a scenario with a 5% GDP growth rate, the ESV is RMB¥ [1.85, 20.79] × 10⁹, which is more than the ESV of the scenario with a 9% GDP growth rate. When the GDP growth rates are 5% and 9%, the proportions of forestland are [61.5%, 61.7%] and [58%, 58.2%], respectively. Furthermore, spatialization was performed using the Dyna-CLUE model. In 2025, the simulated area of farmland is larger in some small regions with 9% GDP growth rate than it is in regions with 5% GDP growth rate, thus achieving a balance between occupation and compensation of regional farmland. By comparing ecosystem planning under different GDP growth rates, an optimized land-use allocation method can help decision makers balance system benefits and ecological risks, which can provide multiple options and specific locations for decision.

A Review of Changes in Mountain Land Use and Ecosystem Services: From Theory to Practice

Global changes impact the human-environment relationship, and, in particular, they affect the provision of ecosystem services. Mountain ecosystems provide a wide range of such services, but they are highly sensitive and vulnerable to change due to various human pressures and natural processes. We conducted a literature survey that focused on two main issues. The first was the identification of quantitative methods aimed at assessing the impact of land use changes in mountain regions and the related ecosystem services. The second was the analysis of the extent to which the outcomes of these assessments are useful and transferable to stakeholders. We selected papers through a keyword-driven search of the ISI Web of Knowledge and other international databases. The keywords used for the search were mountain land use change and ecosystem service. Quantitative approaches to ecosystem service assessment rely on suitable indicators, therefore land use/land cover can be used as an appropriate proxy. Landscape metrics are a powerful analytical tool; their use can increase the accuracy of assessments and facilitate the mitigation of specific phenomena, such as fragmentation or the reduction of core habitat areas. Mapping is essential: it is the basis for spatial analyzes and eases the interactions between stakeholders. Land use/land cover change is a temporal process, so both past and future approaches are meaningful. It is necessary to enhance information transfer from theory to practice. Increasing stakeholder awareness can lead to suitable management solutions, and, reciprocally, stakeholder feedback can help improve current assessment methodologies and contribute to developing new tools that are suitable for specific problems.

Mapping Natural Forest Remnants with Multi-Source and Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Data for More Informed Management of Global Biodiversity Hotspots

Global terrestrial biodiversity hotspots (GBH) represent areas featuring exceptional concentrations of endemism and habitat loss in the world. Unfortunately, geospatial data of natural habitats of the GBHs are often outdated, imprecise, and coarse, and need updating for improved management and protection actions. Recent developments in satellite image availability, combined with enhanced machine learning algorithms and computing capacity, enable cost-efficient updating of geospatial information of these already severely fragmented habitats. This study aimed to develop a more accurate method for mapping closed canopy evergreen natural forest (CCEF) of the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) ecoregion in Tanzania and Kenya, and to update the knowledge on its spatial extent, level of fragmentation, and conservation status. We tested 1023 model possibilities stemming from a combination of Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) satellite imagery, spatial texture of S1 and S2, seasonality derived from Landsat-8 time series, and topographic information, using random forest modelling approach. We compared the best CCEF model with existing spatial forest products from the EAM through independent accuracy assessment. Finally, the CCEF model was used to estimate the fragmentation and conservation coverage of the EAM. The CCEF model has moderate accuracy measured in True Skill Statistic (0.57), and it clearly outperforms other similar products from the region. Based on this model, there are about 296,000 ha of Eastern Arc Forests (EAF) left. Furthermore, acknowledging small forest fragments (1–10 ha) implies that the EAFs are more fragmented than previously considered. Currently, the official protection of EAFs is disproportionally targeting well-studied mountain blocks, while less known areas and small fragments are underrepresented in the protected area network. Thus, the generated CCEF model should be used to design updates and more informed and detailed conservation allocation plans to balance this situation. The results highlight that spatial texture of S2, seasonality, and topography are the most important variables describing the EAFs, while spatial texture of S1 increases the model performance slightly. All in all, our work demonstrates that recent developments in Earth observation allows significant enhancements in mapping, which should be utilized in areas with outstanding biodiversity values for better forest and conservation planning.

A Scientometrics Review on Land Ecosystem Service Research

Humans can derive the benefits from the ecosystem to satisfy human needs as well-being. Therefore, good ecosystem management is the intermediary between ecosystems and human well-being. The ecosystem services depend on the supply of nature, and also reflect the value orientation of human beings, as the basis for the realization of human survival and cultural development. Land ecosystem services are the core and hot topic of ecological research. Under the current severe depletion of land use, this research evaluates the sustainable governance on the natural resource shortage, serious environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation. Based on the Web of Science database, this paper analyzes the development characteristics and trends of global land ecosystem services research using the Bibliometrix software package. The results show that (1) the amount of literature on land ecosystem services research between 2000 and 2019 has generally increased significantly, and entered a stage of rapid development from 2015. (2) Developed countries are the main research force in the field of land ecosystem services, and the United States has the absolute leading position. Developing countries are dominated by China, Argentina, and Brazil. (3) The high-frequency keywords for land ecosystem services are land use change, land use, climate change, urbanization, carbon and water quality. This can be regarded as a research hotspot in the field of land ecosystem services to a certain extent. (4) Through cluster analysis on the big data, the research found the direction for the future land ecosystem services, mainly: (I) the restoration of degraded land and its impact on ecosystem services; (II) the environmental impact assessment of land use planning based on the ecosystem services value; (III) the tradeoff analysis of ecosystem services in sustainable land management; (IV) the impact of land cover change on ecosystem services; (V) through the historical analysis of citied papers, the research history and evolution path of land ecosystem services are explored. Based on all these arguments, a comprehensive study on the diverse facets of land ecosystem services and the practical application of land ecosystem services areas is proposed.

A blessing for the Yangtze River: optimization of Chinese regional policy planning for water yield and purification in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes impact the structure and functioning of ecosystems, which consequently influences the provisioning of a range of ecosystem services (ES). There is a growing consensus regarding the merit of integrating the evaluation of ES into regional policy planning. The Yangtze River is the world's third longest and supports more than 6% of its population. However, assessing the potential impacts of different resource management policies upon ES is complicated in the Yangtze basin. To remedy this, here we designed a scenario analysis-based approach that used remotely sensed data and GIS (geographic information system) to analyze the relationships between ES (i.e., water flow regulation, water purification) and policies envisioned to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality, in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) in the Yangtze basin. This watershed area has high population density and suffers from severe flood hazard and critical pollution issues. The GEOMOD modeling technique was used to predict LULC changes according to policy planning alternatives, producing scenarios by 2050 for the TGRA watershed. The GIS-based ES model (InVEST model) was developed as a tool to inform the decision-making process with the intention of aligning conservation measures with economic development. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing three scenarios for 2050: scenario-1 maintains the current policy, with no considerations of ES; scenario-2 integrates ES into policy planning; and scenario-3 integrates ES into policy planning considering the needs of local people. Our scenario-based LULC change analysis showed that the land with large increases in water flow regulation (i.e., values ≤-3000 × 10³ m³ km^-2) were scattered over the entire study area, while phosphorus reduction (i.e., values ≤ -30 kg km^-2) were located mainly along rivers in all scenarios. Scenario-2 and scenario-3 are based on policies aiming at enhancing ES provisioning; for these, the projected ecological risks of water pollution are significantly reduced (39.97% and 37.58%, respectively). Total net changes of the investigated ES under scenario-2 or scenario-3 were almost double that occurring under scenario-1. Although scenario-2 and scenario-3 showed a near-equal total net change, water purification under scenario-2 was the greatest relative to forest expansion. However, scenario-3 offered the best future environmental development scenario, as it accounted for the demand and supply characteristics of water yield and purification in different regions. The water purification service made the greatest contribution to positive and negative effects (26%-47% and -7%, respectively) on ES provisioning. Linking water purification service to policy planning would effectively improve the overall ES. These scenario forecasting results will help the Three Gorges Dam to gain more ecological benefits via improvements to water flow regulation and the effective alleviation of degraded water quality in heavily populated regions in the Yangtze basin.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Carbon Storage in Response to Urbanization: A Case Study in the Su-Xi-Chang Region, China

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage plays an important role in mitigating global warming. Understanding the characteristics and drivers of changes in carbon storage can provide a scientific basis for urban planning and management. The objective of this study was to reveal the ways in which urbanization influences the spatial and temporal variations in carbon storage. In this study, we investigated the changes in carbon storage from 1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2018 in the Su-Xi-Chang region, which is a typical fast-growing urban agglomeration in China, based on the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. Moreover, we analyzed the impacts of urbanization-induced land-use changes on carbon storage. The results showed that in terms of space and time, the greatest loss of carbon storage occurred in developing urban areas and during the rapidly urbanizing stage. Our study revealed that the reduction in cultivated land was the greatest contributor to carbon stock losses. In addition, we found that some types of land use conversion can enhance carbon storage. Based on the results, some suggestions are proposed aimed at promoting urban sustainable development. This study also provides insights into enhancing urban sustainability for other urban agglomerations throughout the world.

The Landscape Patterns of the Giant Panda Protection Area in Sichuan Province and Their Impact on Giant Pandas

As the flagship species of biodiversity conservation in China, the giant panda has significant ecological protection value and plays an important demonstrative role for conservation. Sichuan Province has the largest area of giant panda habitat, making its protected areas the most important for the conservation of this species. However, the habitats of the giant panda are shrinking due to human disturbance through land encroachment for agriculture and other forms of resource exploitation. Reducing these pressures requires assessing current land use and the causes of fragmenting giant panda habitats. This paper reports on changes in land-use patterns and socio-economic development in typical counties with giant panda habitats in Sichuan in 2003 and 2015, with a focus on giant panda protection areas and human pressures in the surrounding lands. We found that road construction, industrial infrastructure, and other forms of economic development have led to increases in human populations and fragmentation of the giant panda habitats, such that that the population of this species has been significantly reduced in some counties. Improving the protection of giant panda requires designing regional economic development activities based on scientific principles to provide benefits to both the local people and the giant pandas. For example, when making land use plans, the local government should consider the impact of the development of the communities surrounding the giant panda areas on the giant pandas’ habitat.

Nature and mental health: An ecosystem service perspective

A growing body of empirical evidence is revealing the value of nature experience for mental health. With rapid urbanization and declines in human contact with nature globally, crucial decisions must be made about how to preserve and enhance opportunities for nature experience. Here, we first provide points of consensus across the natural, social, and health sciences on the impacts of nature experience on cognitive functioning, emotional well-being, and other dimensions of mental health. We then show how ecosystem service assessments can be expanded to include mental health, and provide a heuristic, conceptual model for doing so.

Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing - Insights from five European case studies

Empirical research on land sharing and land sparing has been criticized because preferences of local stakeholders, socio-economic aspects, a bundle of ecosystem services and the local context were only rarely integrated. Using storylines and scenarios is a common approach to include land use drivers and local contexts or to cope with the uncertainties of future developments. The objective of the presented research is to develop comparable participatory regional land use scenarios for the year 2030 reflecting land sharing, land sparing and more intermediate developments across five different European landscapes (Austria, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Spain). In order to ensure methodological consistency among the five case studies, a hierarchical multi-scale scenario approach was developed, which consisted of i) the selection of a common global storyline to frame a common sphere of uncertainty for all case studies, ii) the definition of three contrasting qualitative European storylines (representing developments for land sharing, land sparing and a balanced storyline), and iii) the development of three explorative case study-specific land use scenarios with regional stakeholders in workshops. Land use transition rules defined by stakeholders were used to generate three different spatially-explicit scenarios for each case study by means of high-resolution land use maps. All scenarios incorporated various aspects of land use and management to allow subsequent quantification of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity indicators. The comparison of the final scenarios showed both common as well as diverging trends among the case studies. For instance, stakeholders identified further possibilities to intensify land management in all case studies in the land sparing scenario. In addition, in most case studies stakeholders agreed on the most preferred scenario, i.e. either land sharing or balanced, and the most likely one, i.e. balanced. However, they expressed some skepticism regarding the general plausibility of land sparing in a European context. It can be concluded that stakeholder perceptions and the local context can be integrated in land sharing and land sparing contexts subject to particular process design principles.

Do urban planning policies meet sustainable urbanization goals? A scenario-based study in Beijing, China

The global urbanization process has been a concern in recent years, and it is a serious challenge to sustainable development and effective urban governance. Rapid changes in urban land use have caused serious damage to the global ecological environment and ecosystem services (ESs). To help city planners and decision-makers in the process of city planning, it is vital to assess the impacts of urban land use changes on ESs. In this study, urban development under trend continuation and policy planning scenarios were assessed to determine whether the policy planning scenario meets the needs of sustainable urbanization. The two scenarios of future urban expansion in Beijing in 2035 were simulated by the FUTURES (FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation) model, and the spatio-temporal changes of ESs in the two scenarios were explored through the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) model. The results show that the major losses of ESs came from the conversion of cropland land to urban land, which accounts for 79.70% and 69.62% of the total carbon storage loss, 67.88% and 43.94% of the total water yield loss, and 79.94% and 77.72% of the total habitat quality loss, under the Status Quo (SQ) and urban planning development (UPD) scenarios, respectively. Our results emphasize that the policies proposed by the UPD scenario appear to greatly reduce the negative impacts of urban land use change on ESs. However, the government cannot neglect the protection of forest and needs to intensify the implementation of policies implementation in the shallow mountainous areas of the western margins and northeastern and northern regions of Beijing. By understanding the trade-off between future urban structure and ESs, city planners and decision-makers can adjust and optimize suggestions for urban planning policies to achieve sustainable development.

Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China

Urban expansion is one of the main factors driving terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) changes. Accurate accounting of TCS and rigorous quantification of its changes caused by historical urban expansion may help us to better predict its changes in the future. This study focuses on the carbon impacts of urbanization in China where the share of the urban population has increased from 18% in 1978 to 59% in 2017 and the growing will continue in the coming decades. Our results show that China's TCS decreased at an accelerating pace over the past three decades with an average reduction of 0.72TgC/y in 1980-1990 and 8.72TgC/y in 2000-2010, mostly due to conversion from cropland and woodland to urban land. Through simulating urban expansion under four scenarios from 2010 to 2050, we found a potential increasing trend in land conversion from woodland to urban land. This conversion trend would result in carbon storage loss at an average rate of 9.31TgC/y ∼ 12.94TgC/y in 2010-2050. The increasing trend in both land conversion and carbon storage loss is especially visible in the population centers of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Considering that the indirect emission effects of urbanization, such as farmland displacement, population migration, and land degradation, may be much larger, the overall emission impact of forthcoming urban expansion in China would increase the uncertainty of the nation's carbon emissions and potentially undermine China's targets as committed in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Flood mitigation ecosystem service in landscapes of Argentina's Pampas: identifying winning and losing farmers

Ecosystem services are only able to make a contribution to human well-being if they reach the users or beneficiaries. Therefore, it is important to differentiate the potential contributions of ecosystems (ecosystem service supply) from the fraction of the supply that is captured or used. This is even more relevant when the supply and capture of the service occur in different locations. In this case, propagation models are needed to identify who wins and who loses when land-use policies are applied. In this study, we developed an integrated approach for the analysis of supply, propagation and capture patterns of flood-mitigation ecosystem service in rural landscapes and we illustrated how to apply it for the identification of winning and losing farmers under alternative land-use scenarios. The proposed approach allowed us to differentiate farms according to their flood mitigation capacity and to estimate how that capacity could be affected by changes in land use. It also highlights the importance of considering the propagation and capture of ecosystem services in evaluations. Reliable methodological developments are scarce. Therefore, flexible tools such as this proposal are necessary to fit the available information and the context to be analyzed.

From Archived Historical Aerial Imagery to Informative Orthophotos: A Framework for Retrieving the Past in Long-Term Socioecological Research

Aerial photographs have been systematically collected from as early as the 1930s, providing a unique resource to describe changes in vegetation and land cover over extended periods of time. However, their use is often limited by technical constraints, such as the lack of ground control information and precise camera parameters, which hamper an accurate orthorectification of the raw imagery. Here, we describe the historical aerial photographs orthorectification (HAPO) workflow, based on a conventional photogrammetric procedure (the direct linear transformation (DLT) Method), integrated as a geographic information systems (GIS) procedure, in order to perform the image orientation and orthorectification, thereby converting historical aerial imagery into high-definition historical orthoimages. HAPO implementation is illustrated with an application to a rugged landscape in Portugal, where we aimed to produce land-cover maps using an aerial photograph coverage from 1947, as part of a study on long-term socioecological dynamics. We show that HAPO produces highly accurate orthoimages and discuss the wider usefulness of our framework in long-term socioecological research.

Drivers of Change in Urban Growth Patterns: A Transport Perspective from Perth, Western Australia

The evolution of urban form is a slow and complex process driven by various factors which influence its pattern of occurrence (time, shape and directions) over time. Given the ever-increasing demand for urban expansion, and its negative effects on travel efficiency and environmental quality, it is imperative to understand the driving forces behind this complex process. This study investigates the role played by transport developments in the expansion of Perth’s urban footprint. Since transport developments are influenced by prevailing economic developments and planning regulations, our analysis starts by deconstructing a timeline of milestones under these three themes, from an urban land development perspective. An overview of the eras of transport evolution is provided, and we discuss the pattern of urban form changes as they relate to these transport advancements. The paper ends by mapping and quantifying changes in Perth’s urban land over the past five decades. The results show that transport had a strong influence on the pattern of urban expansion for a long time, but that trend has now been reversed. Rail constructions have been playing catch-up to residential expansion since the late twentieth century. Meanwhile, the rate of urban expansion has gone down in the twenty-first century, as the city goes for compact growth.

Spatiotemporal analysis of ecological vulnerability and management in the Tarim River Basin, China

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is an extremely arid area in China, suffering from dry climate and intense human activities, which have brought about significant changes in ecological processes and then, led to serious ecological vulnerability (EV). This study proposes an assessment framework to evaluate EV and analyze its dynamic change in the TRB during 2005-2015. An integrated method is developed with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, which highlights impacts of nature and anthropogenic interference on the ecology. Specific management strategies are put forward based on the spatial recognition of ecologically vulnerable areas in the TRB. The EV is divided into four vulnerability levels including Light I, Medium II, Heavy III and Very heavy IV. Results show that the average EV is at Heavy III vulnerability level in the TRB in the last 2005-2015, and there has been an increasing trend in EV, which even has come up to the Very heavy IV vulnerability level in the year 2013-2015. As a whole, the EV displays a high-to-low gradient from east to west during the study period. Heavy III and Very heavy IV vulnerability levels, distributed in the East, mainly in the mainstream areas with characterization of frequent human interferences, tend to increase persistently. In contrast, Light I vulnerability level, mainly in the west source areas, shows a significant decline after 2010. Based on the results, some suggestions targeted at different vulnerable areas were proposed to help restore ecological environments by integrating legal managements with public efforts. The proposed methodology, reflecting the nature and human interaction on the EV is of practical use for the ecological restorations in the TRB.

What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China

Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.

Deforestation Dynamics on an Amazonian Peri-Urban Frontier: Simulating the Influence of the Rio Negro Bridge in Manaus, Brazil

Peri-urban expansion is an increasingly important source of tropical deforestation, and a bridge over the Rio Negro in Brazil's state of Amazonas provides an unusual opportunity to quantify these impacts with clear "before" and "after" periods. Inaugurated in 2011, the bridge connects Manaus to forest areas on the right bank of the river, thus opening a new frontier for peri-urban expansion. We used the AGROECO model in the Dinamica-EGO software to simulate "Bridge" and "No-bridge" scenarios to evaluate the spatial dynamics of deforestation in the municipalities (counties) of Iranduba, Manacapuru and Novo Airão. Simulated deforestation between 2011 and 2030 for the study area as a whole was 106% higher with the bridge. The portion of the study area with expansion of roads had four times more deforestation in the Bridge scenario than in the No-bridge scenario. A change in the spatial distribution of the deforested area was detected, with an advance of deforestation in the municipality closest to the bridge. Deforestation also expanded in more distant regions. Peri-urbanization in the Bridge scenario demonstrates the possible increase in the spatial distribution of deforestation activity beyond the already-consolidated frontier, making the deforestation pattern more diffuse and leaving the remaining forest even more vulnerable. Impact of the bridge could further increase due to additional factors, such as the planned opening of a highway (BR-319) connecting Manaus to Brazil's "arc of deforestation."

Evaluating Biodiversity Metric Response to Forecasted Land Use Change in the Northern Rio Grande Basin

The effects of future land use change on arid and semi-arid watersheds in the American Southwest have important management implications. Seamless, national-scale land-use-change scenarios for developed land were acquired from the US Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (lCLUS) project and extracted to fit the Northern Rio Grande River Basin, New Mexico relative to projections of housing density for the period from 2000 through 2100. Habitat models developed from the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project were invoked to examine changes in wildlife habitat and biodiversity metrics using five ICLUS scenarios. The scenarios represent a US Census base-case and four modifications that were consistent with the different assumptions underlying the A1, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global greenhouse gas emission storylines. Habitat models for terrestrial vertebrate species were used to derive metrics reflecting ecosystem services or biodiversity aspects valued by humans that could be quantified and mapped. Example metrics included total terrestrial vertebrate species richness, bird species richness, threatened and endangered species, and harvestable species (e.g., waterfowl, big game). Overall, the defined scenarios indicated that the housing density and extent of developed lands will increase throughout the century with a resultant decrease in area for all species richness categories. The A2 Scenario, in general, showed greatest effect on area by species richness category. The integration of the land use scenarios with biodiversity metrics derived from deductive habitat models may prove to be an important tool for decision makers involved in impact assessments and adaptive planning processes.

Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a photo-based survey. The respondents attributed higher aesthetic values to the Alpine landscape in respect to areas with settlements, infrastructure or intensive agricultural use. The aesthetic value of two study areas in the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Austria and Vinschgau, Italy) was modelled for 10,215 viewpoints along hiking trails according to current land cover and a scenario considering the spontaneous reforestation of abandoned land. Viewpoints with high aesthetic values were mainly located at high altitude, allowing long vistas, and included views of lakes or glaciers, and the lowest values were for viewpoints close to streets and in narrow valleys with little view. The aesthetic values of the reforestation scenario decreased mainly at higher altitudes, but the whole area was affected, reducing aesthetic value by almost 10% in Stubai Valley and 15% in Vinschgau. Our proposed modelling approach allows the estimation of aesthetic values in spatial and qualitative terms for most viewpoints in the European Alps. The resulting maps can be used as information and the basis for discussion by stakeholders, to support the decision-making process and landscape planning. This paper also discusses the role of mountain farming in preserving an attractive landscape and related cultural values.

Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the presatellite era. Here, we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitized historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a fivefold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha(-1)  yr(-1) . This is at least threefold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) Mg C ha(-1) , compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) Mg C ha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data are available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics.

Potential impact of land use change on ecosystem services in China

Land use change can greatly alter spatial pattern and overall ecosystem service values (ESV). The goal of this study was to explore the likely effects of land use change on ESV in China. In this paper, the spatially explicit land use changes across China from 2010 to 2020 under the 2000s trend scenario and the planning scenario were projected using the Dyna-CLUE model. The ESV evaluation method was improved by adjusting the ESV coefficients using biomass data to reduce the generalization error of proxy-based method. The results revealed that between 2010 and 2020, total ESV increased by 1798 and 2215 billion RMB a(-1) under the 2000s trend scenario and the planning scenario, respectively. The spatial pattern of ESV in 2010 and 2020 presented a logical geographic distribution. The areas with ESV of 50,000 RMB ha(-1) a(-1) and higher occurred primarily in northeastern and southern China, while the areas with ESV of 5000 RMB ha(-1) a(-1) and lower were mainly located in northwestern China. The spatial differences between the two scenarios were insignificant except that the increase of ESV in southwestern China was more prominent in the planning scenario than that in the 2000s trend scenario, while the total ESV in 2020 under the planning scenario was larger than that in the 2000s trend scenario. The increase of ESV occurred mainly in northeastern, southern, and southeastern China due to forest growth and woodland expansion in 2020 compared with 2010. The results of this study can provide useful information for the public and land managers to consider.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest ecosystems over the future.

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.

Quantifying and understanding carbon storage and sequestration within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania, a tropical biodiversity hotspot

BACKGROUND

The carbon stored in vegetation varies across tropical landscapes due to a complex mix of climatic and edaphic variables, as well as direct human interventions such as deforestation and forest degradation. Mapping and monitoring this variation is essential if policy developments such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) are to be known to have succeeded or failed.

RESULTS

We produce a map of carbon storage across the watershed of the Tanzanian Eastern Arc Mountains (33.9 million ha) using 1,611 forest inventory plots, and correlations with associated climate, soil and disturbance data. As expected, tropical forest stores more carbon per hectare (182 Mg C ha(-1)) than woody savanna (51 Mg C ha(-1)). However, woody savanna is the largest aggregate carbon store, with 0.49 Pg C over 9.6 million ha. We estimate the whole landscape stores 1.3 Pg C, significantly higher than most previous estimates for the region. The 95% Confidence Interval for this method (0.9 to 3.2 Pg C) is larger than simpler look-up table methods (1.5 to 1.6 Pg C), suggesting simpler methods may underestimate uncertainty. Using a small number of inventory plots with two censuses (n = 43) to assess changes in carbon storage, and applying the same mapping procedures, we found that carbon storage in the tree-dominated ecosystems has decreased, though not significantly, at a mean rate of 1.47 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) (c. 2% of the stocks of carbon per year).

CONCLUSIONS

The most influential variables on carbon storage in the region are anthropogenic, particularly historical logging, as noted by the largest coefficient of explanatory variable on the response variable. Of the non-anthropogenic factors, a negative correlation with air temperature and a positive correlation with water availability dominate, having smaller p-values than historical logging but also smaller influence. High carbon storage is typically found far from the commercial capital, in locations with a low monthly temperature range, without a strong dry season, and in areas that have not suffered from historical logging. The results imply that policy interventions could retain carbon stored in vegetation and likely successfully slow or reverse carbon emissions.

Food security in a perfect storm: using the ecosystem services framework to increase understanding

Achieving food security in a 'perfect storm' scenario is a grand challenge for society. Climate change and an expanding global population act in concert to make global food security even more complex and demanding. As achieving food security and the millennium development goal (MDG) to eradicate hunger influences the attainment of other MDGs, it is imperative that we offer solutions which are complementary and do not oppose one another. Sustainable intensification of agriculture has been proposed as a way to address hunger while also minimizing further environmental impact. However, the desire to raise productivity and yields has historically led to a degraded environment, reduced biodiversity and a reduction in ecosystem services (ES), with the greatest impacts affecting the poor. This paper proposes that the ES framework coupled with a policy response framework, for example Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR), can allow food security to be delivered alongside healthy ecosystems, which provide many other valuable services to humankind. Too often, agro-ecosystems have been considered as separate from other natural ecosystems and insufficient attention has been paid to the way in which services can flow to and from the agro-ecosystem to surrounding ecosystems. Highlighting recent research in a large multi-disciplinary project (ASSETS), we illustrate the ES approach to food security using a case study from the Zomba district of Malawi.

Landscape structure and diseases profile: associating land use type composition with disease distribution

Human health and well-being presuppose environmental quality. Several studies have documented the indicative role of land use types in environmental quality. However, the exact role of land use composition on disease distribution has remained scientifically vague. We assessed the congruence of diseases' distribution with land use composition, focusing on high environmental quality areas, defined as tranquil areas with view to indicating places offering well-being. Landscape composition is linked to the presence of diseases across 51 prefectures of Greece. Agricultural and natural land use types proved to be the main drivers of disease distribution. Tranquility demonstrated a strong negative correlation with population density, thus could be considered as a quantitative spatial index of life-quality. We concluded that the landscape context affects the dominance of diseases' patterns. Special emphasis should be put on the role of tranquil areas in human health and the relative environmental health policies.