The nexus between COVID-19 deaths, air pollution and economic growth in New York state: Evidence from Deep Machine Learning

An assessment of economy- and transport-oriented health performance

BACKGROUND

Good health can prolong one's lifespan and is a fundamental human right. Thus, human health is being influenced by prejudiced from sociological, environmental, economic, and geographic aspects. The economy and transportation system pose a serious challenge to the assessment of the health performance of economies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the health performance of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies by using economic and transport-related indicators and examining the role of health expenditure and governance in improving efficiency.

METHODS

This study measures the economy- and transport-oriented health efficiency of 35 OECD economies for the period of 2000-2022. In the first stage, this study employs a slacks-based measure and the data envelopment analysis-window analysis approach to conduct individual (economy and transportation) and joint assessments to measure health efficiency. In the second stage, this study uses the tobit regression method to investigate the effects of influencing factors, namely, government general health and pharmaceutical expenditures, the medical infrastructure, and governance, on health efficiency.

RESULTS

Empirical results reveal that a 1-unit change in the health expenditure during the research period improves economy-oriented health efficiency by 71% and transport-oriented health efficiency by 58%. The econometric analysis demonstrates that all the coefficients of economy- and transport-oriented health efficiency are significant and positive. Notably, a 1-unit change in the medical infrastructure increases economy- and transport-oriented health efficiency by 50.8%, and a 1% increase in pharmaceutical expenditure increases the health, economy, and transport efficiency scores by 16.3%, 33%, and 58.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that some of the economies were efficient with regard to their health-oriented outputs, that is, quality of life and mortality and morbidity rates, and most of the economies demonstrated excellent economic performance. The findings of the transport-oriented health efficiency assessment reveal that the economies were unable to perform well in the last year of the research period owing to the nationwide lockdowns. Nonetheless, they demonstrated efficiency in the first half of the research period. The joint assessment of economy- and transport-oriented health efficiency indicates that economic and transport input resources can adversely affect the GDP and life expectancy simultaneously, and the medical infrastructure, pharmaceutical expenditure, and number of medical graduates serve as constructive stimuli for health efficiency improvement.

Multivariable Air-Quality Prediction and Modelling via Hybrid Machine Learning: A Case Study for Craiova, Romania

Inadequate air quality has adverse impacts on human well-being and contributes to the progression of climate change, leading to fluctuations in temperature. Therefore, gaining a localized comprehension of the interplay between climate variations and air pollution holds great significance in alleviating the health repercussions of air pollution. This study uses a holistic approach to make air quality predictions and multivariate modelling. It investigates the associations between meteorological factors, encompassing temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, and three particulate matter concentrations (PM10, PM2.5, and PM1), and the correlation between PM concentrations and noise levels, volatile organic compounds, and carbon dioxide emissions. Five hybrid machine learning models were employed to predict PM concentrations and then the Air Quality Index (AQI). Twelve PM sensors evenly distributed in Craiova City, Romania, provided the dataset for five months (22 September 2021-17 February 2022). The sensors transmitted data each minute. The prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated and the results revealed that, in general, the coefficient of determination (R2) values exceeded 0.96 (interval of confidence is 0.95) and, in most instances, approached 0.99. Relative humidity emerged as the least influential variable on PM concentrations, while the most accurate predictions were achieved by combining pressure with temperature. PM10 (less than 10 µm in diameter) concentrations exhibited a notable correlation with PM2.5 (less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations and a moderate correlation with PM1 (less than 1 µm in diameter). Nevertheless, other findings indicated that PM concentrations were not strongly related to NOISE, CO2, and VOC, and these last variables should be combined with another meteorological variable to enhance the prediction accuracy. Ultimately, this study established novel relationships for predicting PM concentrations and AQI based on the most effective combinations of predictor variables identified.

Modeling NO2 air pollution variation during and after COVID-19-regulation using principal component analysis of satellite imagery

By implementing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of multitemporal satellite data, this paper presents modeling solutions for air pollutant variation in three scenarios related to COVID-19 lockdown: pre, during, and after lockdown. Tropospheric NO2 satellite data from Sentinel-5P was used. Two novel PCA-models were developed: Weighted Principal Component Analysis (WPCA) and Rescaled Principal Component Analysis (RPCA). Model results were tested for goodness-of-fit to empirical NO2 data. The models were used to predict actual near-surface NO2 concentrations. Model-predicted NO2 concentrations were validated with NO2 data acquired at ground monitoring stations. Besides, meteorological bias affecting NO2 was assessed. It was found that the weather component had substantial impact on NO2 built-ups, propitiating air pollutant decrease during lockdown and increase after. WPCA and RPCA models well fitted to observed NO2. Both models accurately estimated near-surface NO2 concentrations. Modeled NO2 variation results evidenced the prolongated effect of the total lockdown (up to half a year). Model-predicted NO2 concentrations were found to highly correlate with monitoring station NO2 data collected on the ground. It is concluded that PCA is reliable in identifying and predicting air pollution variation patterns. The implementation of PCA is recommended when analyzing other pollutant gases.

The Effects of Hospitalisation on the Serum Metabolome in COVID-19 Patients

COVID-19, a systemic multi-organ disease resulting from infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is known to result in a wide array of disease outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal. Despite persistent progress, there is a continued need for more accurate determinants of disease outcomes, including post-acute symptoms after COVID-19. In this study, we characterised the serum metabolomic changes due to hospitalisation and COVID-19 disease progression by mapping the serum metabolomic trajectories of 71 newly hospitalised moderate and severe patients in their first week after hospitalisation. These 71 patients were spread out over three hospitals in Switzerland, enabling us to meta-analyse the metabolomic trajectories and filter consistently changing metabolites. Additionally, we investigated differential metabolite-metabolite trajectories between fatal, severe, and moderate disease outcomes to find prognostic markers of disease severity. We found drastic changes in serum metabolite concentrations for 448 out of the 901 metabolites. These results included markers of hospitalisation, such as environmental exposures, dietary changes, and altered drug administration, but also possible markers of physiological functioning, including carboxyethyl-GABA and fibrinopeptides, which might be prognostic for worsening lung injury. Possible markers of disease progression included altered urea cycle metabolites and metabolites of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, indicating a SARS-CoV-2-induced reprogramming of the host metabolism. Glycerophosphorylcholine was identified as a potential marker of disease severity. Taken together, this study describes the metabolome-wide changes due to hospitalisation and COVID-19 disease progression. Moreover, we propose a wide range of novel potential biomarkers for monitoring COVID-19 disease course, both dependent and independent of the severity.

Mapping the long-term associations between air pollutants and COVID-19 risks and the attributable burdens in the continental United States

Numerous studies have investigated the associations between COVID-19 risks and long-term exposure to air pollutants, revealing considerable heterogeneity and even contradictory regional results. Studying the spatial heterogeneity of the associations is essential for developing region-specific and cost-effective air-pollutant-related public health policies for the prevention and control of COVID-19. However, few studies have investigated this issue. Using the USA as an example, we constructed single/two-pollutant conditional autoregressions with random coefficients and random intercepts to map the associations between five air pollutants (PM_2.5, O₃, SO₂, NO₂, and CO) and two COVID-19 outcomes (incidence and mortality) at the state level. The attributed cases and deaths were then mapped at the county level. This study included 3108 counties from 49 states within the continental USA. The county-level air pollutant concentrations from 2017 to 2019 were used as long-term exposures, and the county-level cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths through May 13, 2022, were used as outcomes. Results showed that considerably heterogeneous associations and attributable COVID-19 burdens were found in the USA. The COVID-19 outcomes in the western and northeastern states appeared to be unaffected by any of the five pollutants. The east of the USA bore the greatest COVID-19 burdens attributable to air pollution because of its high pollutant concentrations and significantly positive associations. PM_2.5 and CO were significantly positively associated with COVID-19 incidence in 49 states on average, whereas NO₂ and SO₂ were significantly positively associated with COVID-19 mortality. The remaining associations between air pollutants and COVID-19 outcomes were not statistically significant. Our study provided implications regarding where a major concern should be placed on a specific air pollutant for COVID-19 control and prevention, as well as where and how to conduct additional individual-based validation research in a cost-effective manner.

Impacts of health expenditures and environmental degradation on health status—Disability-adjusted life years and infant mortality

Introduction

Human health and well-being are intimately related to environmental quality. In this respect, the present study contributes to the existing health economic literature by examining whether public and private health expenditures (PPHE) moderate the incidences of environmental degradation on the health status in Saudi Arabia, particularly disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and infant mortality.

Methods

Using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method.

Results and Discussion

The empirical results revealed that (i) unconditional positive impacts of CO2 emissions on increasing DALYs and infant mortality; (ii) conditional negative impacts of public health expenditures on DALYs and infant mortality in all the estimated models, whereas global and private expenditure contribute only on reducing infant mortality; (iii) public health expenditure is more effective than private health expenditure in reducing infant mortality; (iv) the effects of the interactions between the indicators of both health expenditures and CO2 emissions on DALYs and infant mortality are negative and significant only for the specifications relating to public health expenditures, indicating that this later could be employed as a policy or conditional variable that moderates the adverse impacts of carbon emissions on the population’s health status. Generally, the study presents an overview of environmental health change’s effects and examine how these effects may be reduced through increasing health spending. The study provides recommendations for addressing health status, health expenditures, and carbon emissions, all of which are directly or indirectly linked to the study.

Predictive modeling and analysis of air quality - Visualizing before and during COVID-19 scenarios

Quality air to breathe is the basic necessity for an individual and in recent times, emission from various sources caused by human activities has resulted in substantial degradation in the air quality. This work focuses to study the inadvertent effect of COVID-19 lockdown on air pollution. Pollutants' concentration before- and during- COVID-19 lockdown is captured to understand the variation in air quality. Firstly, multi-pollutant profiling using hierarchical cluster analysis of pollutants' concentration is performed that highlights the differences in the cluster compositions between before- and during-lockdown time periods. Results show that the particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) in air that formed the primary cluster before lock-down, came down to close similarity with other clusters during lockdown. Secondly, predicting air quality index (AQI) based on the forecasts of pollutants' concentration is performed using neural networks, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest, and boosting algorithms. The best-fitted models representing AQI is identified separately for before- and during-lockdown time periods based on its predictive power. While deterministic method reactively evaluates present AQI when current pollutants' concentration at a particular time and place are known, this study uses the best fitted data-driven model to determine future AQIs based on the forecasts of pollutant's concentration accurately (overall RMSE<0.1 for before lockdown scenario and <0.3 for during lockdown scenario). The study contributes to visualize the variation in pollutants' concentrations between the two scenarios. The results show that the reduced economic activities during lockdown period had led to the drop in concentration of PM10 and PM2.5 by 27% and 50% on an average. The findings of this study have practical and societal implications and serve as a reference mechanism for policymakers and governing bodies to revise their actions plans for regulating individual air pollutants in the atmospheric air.

The impact of built and socio-economic environment factors on Covid-19 transmission at the ZIP-code level in Florida

Most studies have explored the Covid-19 outbreak by mainly focusing on restrictive public policies, human health, and behaviors at the macro level. However, the impacts of built and socio-economic environments, accounting for spatial effects on the spread at the local levels, have not been thoroughly studied. In this study, the relationships between the spatial spread of the virus and various indicators of the built and socio-economic environments are investigated, using Florida ZIP-code data on accumulated cases before large-scale vaccination campaigns began in 2021. Spatial regression models are used to account for the spatial dependencies and interactions that are core factors in Covid-19 spread. This study reveals both the spillover dynamics of the coronavirus spread at the ZIP code level and the existence of spatial dependencies among the unobserved variables represented by the error term. In addition, the findings show a positive association between the expected number of Covid-19 cases and specific land uses, such as education facilities and retail densities. Finally, the study highlights critical socio-economic characteristics causing a substantial increase in Covid-19 spread. Such results could help policymakers, public health experts, and urban planners design strategies to mitigate the spread of future Covid-19-like diseases.

Artificial Neural Network Modeling on PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 Concentrations between Two Megacities without a Lockdown in Korea, for the COVID-19 Pandemic Period of 2020

The mutual relationship among daily averaged PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ concentrations in two megacities (Seoul and Busan) connected by the busiest highway in Korea was investigated using an artificial neural network model (ANN)-sigmoid function, for a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period from 1 January to 31 December 2020. Daily and weekly mean concentrations of NO₂ in 2020 under neither locked down cities, nor limitation of the activities of vehicles and people by the Korean Government have decreased by about 15%, and 12% in Seoul, and Busan cities, than the ones in 2019, respectively. PM ₁₀ (PM_2.5) concentration has also decreased by 15% (10%), and 12% (10%) in Seoul, and Busan, with a similar decline of NO₂, causing an improvement in air quality in each city. Multilayer perception (MLP), which has a back-propagation training algorithm for a feed-forward artificial neural network technique with a sigmoid activation function was adopted to predict daily averaged PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ concentrations in two cities with their interplay. Root mean square error (RMSE) with the coefficient of determination (R²) evaluates the performance of the model between the predicted and measured values of daily mean PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO_2, in Seoul were 2.251 with 0.882 (1.909 with 0.896; 1.913 with 0.892), 0.717 with 0.925 (0.955 with 0.930; 0.955 with 0.922), and 3.502 with 0.729 (2.808 with 0.746; 3.481 with 0.734), in 2 (5; 7) nodes in a single hidden layer. Similarly, they in Busan were 2.155 with 0.853 (1.519 with 0.896; 1.649 with 0.869), 0.692 with 0.914 (0.891 with 0.910; 1.211 with 0.883), and 2.747 with 0.667 (2.277 with 0.669; 2.137 with 0.689), respectively. The closeness of the predicted values to the observed ones shows a very high Pearson r correlation coefficient of over 0.932, except for 0.818 of NO₂ in Busan. Modeling performance using IBM SPSS-v27 software on daily averaged PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ concentrations in each city were compared by scatter plots and their daily distributions between predicted and observed values.

Modeling the impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak on environment, health sector and energy market

The global outbreak of COVID‐19 disease had a significant impact on the entire globe. Such a notable public health event can be seen as a “black swan” that brings unpredictable and unusual forces into the economic context and that it could typically lead to a chain of adverse reactions and market disruptions. Hence, the purpose of this study is to examine how COVID‐19 affects the environment, health, and the oil and energy markets. To achieve this objective, we used daily data for several measures that refer to the environment, health, and oil and energy, for the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic (December 31, 2019–May 22, 2020). The variable integration mix led to the approach of the ARDL model, and the Granger causality test was also employed. These empirical techniques allowed us to examine the cointegration between variables and causal relationships. The econometric results of the ARDL models exhibited that the global new cases and new deaths of COVID‐19 have short and long‐term effects on the environment, the health sector, the oil, and energy measures. However, no significant causal connection was found between the pandemic and the environment, the health sector, or the oil and energy industry, according to the Granger causality test. The uniqueness of current approach consists in the investigation of pandemic impact on the health, environment, oil, and energy sector by applying the ARDL model that permits the analysis of cointegration both in the long run and in the short term. This study provides important insights for investors and policy makers.

Tracing out the effect of transportation infrastructure on NO2 concentration levels with Kernel Density Estimation by investigating successive COVID-19-induced lockdowns

This study aims to investigate the effect of transportation infrastructure on the decrease of NO₂ air pollution during three COVID-19-induced lockdowns in a vast region of France. For this purpose, using Sentinel-5P satellite data, the relative change in tropospheric NO₂ air pollution during the three lockdowns was calculated. The estimation of regional infrastructure intensity was performed using Kernel Density Estimation, being the predictor variable. By performing hotspot-coldspot analysis on the relative change in NO₂ air pollution, significant spatial clusters of decreased air pollution during the three lockdowns were identified. Based on the clusters, a novel spatial index, the Clustering Index (CI) was developed using its Coldspot Clustering Index (CCI) variant as a predicted variable in the regression model between infrastructure intensity and NO₂ air pollution decline. The analysis revealed that during the three lockdowns there was a strong and statistically significant relationship between the transportation infrastructure and the decline index, CCI (r = 0.899, R² = 0.808). The results showed that the largest decrease in NO₂ air pollution was recorded during the first lockdown, and in this case, there was the strongest inverse correlation with transportation infrastructure (r = -0.904, R² = 0.818). Economic and population predictors also explained with good fit the decrease in NO₂ air pollution during the first lockdown: GDP (R² = 0.511), employees (R² = 0.513), population density (R² = 0.837). It is concluded that not only economic-population variables determined the reduction of near-surface air pollution but also the transportation infrastructure. Further studies are recommended to investigate other pollutant gases as predicted variables.

A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with new variants, continues to be a constant pandemic threat that is generating socio-economic and health issues in manifold countries. The principal goal of this study is to develop a machine learning experiment to assess the effects of vaccination on the fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 192 countries are analysed to explain the phenomena under study. This new algorithm selected two targets: the number of deaths and the fatality rate. Results suggest that, based on the respective vaccination plan, the turnout in the participation in the vaccination campaign, and the doses administered, countries under study suddenly have a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID-19 precisely at the point where the cut effect is generated in the neural network. This result is significant for the international scientific community. It would demonstrate the effective impact of the vaccination campaign on the fatality rate of COVID-19, whatever the country considered. In fact, once the vaccination has started (for vaccines that require a booster, we refer to at least the first dose), the antibody response of people seems to prevent the probability of death related to COVID-19. In short, at a certain point, the fatality rate collapses with increasing doses administered. All these results here can help decisions of policymakers to prepare optimal strategies, based on effective vaccination plans, to lessen the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in socioeconomic and health systems.

The effects of COVID-19 transmission on environmental sustainability and human health: Paving the way to ensure its sustainable management

The transmission dynamics and health risks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are inextricably linked to ineract with environment, climate, air pollution, and meteorological conditions. The spread of COVID-19 infection can thus perturb the 'planetary health' and livelihood by exerting impacts on the temporal and spatial variabilities of environmental pollution. Prioritization of COVID-19 by the health-care sector has been posing a serious threat to economic progress while undermining the efforts to meet the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for environmental sustainability. Here, we review the multifaceted effects of COVID-19 with respect to environmental quality, climatic variables, SDGs, energy resilience, and sustainability programs. It is well perceived that COVID-19 may have long-lasting and profound effects on socio-economic systems, food security, livelihoods, and the 'nexus' indicators. To seek for the solution of these problems, consensus can be drawn to establish and ensure a sound health-care system, a sustainable environment, and a circular bioeconomy. A holistic analysis of COVID-19's effects on multiple sectors should help develop nature-based solutions, cleaner technologies, and green economic recovery plans to help maintain environmental sustainability, ecosystem resilience, and planetary health.

Estimation of COVID-19 patient numbers using artificial neural networks based on air pollutant concentration levels

The dilemma between health concerns and the economy is apparent in the context of strategic decision making during the pandemic. In particular, estimating the patient numbers and achieving an informed management of the dilemma are crucial in terms of the strategic decisions to be taken. The Covid-19 pandemic presents an important case in this context. Sustaining the efforts to cope with and to put an end to this pandemic requires investigation of the spread and infection mechanisms of the disease, and the factors which facilitate its spread. Covid-19 symptoms culminating in respiratory failure are known to cause death. Since air quality is one of the most significant factors in the progression of lung and respiratory diseases, it is aimed to estimate the number of Covid-19 patients corresponding to the pollutant parameters (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOX, NO2, CO, O3) after determining the relationship between air pollutant parameters and Covid-19 patient numbers in Turkey. For this purpose, artificial neural network was used to estimate the number of Covid-19 patients corresponding to air pollutant parameters in Turkey. To obtain highest accuracy levels in terms of network architecture structure, various network structures were tested. The optimal performance level was developed with 15 neurons combined with one hidden layer, which achieved a network performance level as high as 0.97342. It was concluded that Covid-19 disease is affected from air pollutant parameters and the number of patients can be estimated depending on these parameters by this study. Since it is known that the struggle against the pandemic should be handled in all aspects, the result of the study will contribute to the establishment of environmental decisions and precautions.

Mathematical Modeling to Determine the Fifth Wave of COVID-19 in South Africa

The aim of this study is to predict the COVID-19 infection fifth wave in South Africa using the Gaussian mixture model for the available data of the early four waves for March 18, 2020-April 13, 2022. The quantification data is considered, and the time unit is used in days. We give the modeling of COVID-19 in South Africa and predict the future fifth wave in the country. Initially, we use the Gaussian mixture model to characterize the coronavirus infection to fit the early reported cases of four waves and then to predict the future wave. Actual data and the statistical analysis using the Gaussian mixture model are performed which give close agreement with each other, and one can able to predict the future wave. After that, we fit and predict the fifth wave in the country and it is predicted to be started in the last week of May 2022 and end in the last week of September 2022. It is predicted that the peak may occur on the third week of July 2022 with a high number of 19383 cases. The prediction of the fifth wave can be useful for the health authorities in order to prepare themselves for medical setup and other necessary measures. Further, we use the result obtained from the Gaussian mixture model in the new model formulated in terms of differential equations. The differential equations model is simulated for various values of the model parameters in order to determine the disease’s possible eliminations.

Analyzing preventive precautions to limit spread of COVID-19

With the global spread of COVID-19, the governments advised the public for adopting safety precautions to limit its spread. The virus spreads from people, contaminated places, and nozzle droplets that necessitate strict precautionary measures. Consequently, different safety precautions have been implemented to fight COVID-19 such as wearing a facemask, restriction of social gatherings, keeping 6 feet distance, etc. Despite the warnings, highlighted need for such measures, and the increasing severity of the pandemic situation, the expected number of people adopting these precautions is low. This study aims at assessing and understanding the public perception of COVID-19 safety precautions, especially the use of facemask. A unified framework of sentiment lexicon with the proposed ensemble EB-DT is devised to analyze sentiments regarding safety precautions. Extensive experiments are performed with a large dataset collected from Twitter. In addition, the factors leading to a negative perception of safety precautions are analyzed by performing topic analysis using the Latent Dirichlet allocation algorithm. The experimental results reveal that 12% of the tweets correspond to negative sentiments towards facemask precaution mainly by its discomfort. Analysis of change in peoples' sentiment over time indicates a gradual increase in the positive sentiments regarding COVID-19 restrictions.

"Green" economic development in China: quantile regression evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

As China's economy began transitioning from one focused on high-speed growth to one focusing on high-quality development, sustainable green development has become the main goal pursued by the government. This study empirically measures the marginal impact of per capita GDP, technological innovation level, industrial structure, openness, fiscal decentralization, and urbanization level on per capita wastewater discharge in 11 provinces (cities) along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2008 to 2018 using a quantile model. The key findings were as follows: (1) factors such as the per capita GDP, industrial structure, foreign direct investment, and urbanization in the YREB significantly increased water resource pollution; (2) the quantile model regression results showed that the relationship between economic growth and ecological pollution followed the so-called environmental Kuznets inverted U-curve. Wastewater discharge per capita was low in areas with low per capita GDP, meaning that the ecological environment in these areas was more fragile and that the environmental pollution costs due to economic growth were therefore relatively much higher in these areas; (3) fiscal decentralization significantly reduced water resource pollution in relatively developed areas although the effects in the relatively developing areas were not significant; and (4) the effects of technological innovation on reducing water resource pollution in the YREB were positive but not very significant. The results also confirmed that traditional patterns of economic growth increased water pollution in the YREB. For this reason, the government needs to urgently improve policies-for example, upgrading economic structures, preventing over-urbanization, speeding up technological innovation, introducing environmentally friendly foreign investment, and providing more rewards to best practitioners of environmental governance-that is conducive to the achievement of green ecological development.

Determination of the human impact on the drop in NO2 air pollution due to total COVID-19 lockdown using Human-Influenced Air Pollution Decrease Index (HIAPDI)

This study investigates the relationship between territorial human influence and decreases in NO2 air pollution during a total COVID-19 lockdown in Metropolitan France. NO2 data from the confinement period and the Human Influence Index (HII) were implemented to address the problem. The relative change in tropospheric NO2 was calculated using Sentinel-5P (TROPOMI) satellite data. Hotspot-Coldspot analysis was performed to examine the change in NO2. Moreover, the novel Human-Influenced Air Pollution Decrease Index (HIAPDI) was developed. Weather bias was investigated by implementing homogeneity analysis with χ2 test. The correlations between variables were tested with the statistical T-test. Likewise, remote observations were validated with data from in-situ monitoring stations. The study showed a strong correlation between the NO2 decrease during April 2020 under confinement measures and HII. The greater the anthropogenic influence, the greater the reduction of NO2 in the regions (R2 = 0.62). The new HIAPDI evidenced the degree of anthropogenic impact on NO2 change. HIAPDI was found to be a reliable measure to determine the correlation between human influence and change in air pollution (R2 = 0.93). It is concluded that the anthropogenic influence is a determining factor in the phenomenon of near-surface NO2 reduction. The implementation of HIAPDI is recommended in the analysis of other polluting gases.

How does financial development alleviate pollutant emissions in China? A spatial regression analysis

Assessing the environmental effects of financial development has an important theoretical and practical reference for the government to achieve the goal of sustainable development. Financial development is affected dramatically by the real economy and typically shows nonlinear characteristics. This study aims to investigate the nonlinearity between financial development and pollutant emissions while considering the various stages of financial development among regions. Also, the spatial transmission mechanism between financial development and pollutant emissions is analyzed theoretically. Industrial sulfur dioxide ([Formula: see text]) and solid waste (SW) emissions are used to quantify pollutant emissions in China. The results show a positive spatial spillover effect on pollutant emissions across various regions. Moreover, a region's pollutant emissions can be influenced by the financial development of its surrounding regions, suggesting that financial development reduces [Formula: see text] emissions in a particular region, but it significantly increases [Formula: see text] emissions in surrounding regions, indicating a strong spillover effect. However, financial development significantly decreases SW emissions of a particular region but does not exert a significant impact on its surrounding regions, implying a weak spillover effect. Our results reveal that whereas the relationship of financial development with [Formula: see text] and SW emissions shows a significant U-shaped pattern, that of economic growth exhibit a significant inverted U-shaped pattern. The investigation can help in designing appropriate environmental policies for promoting financial development.

The Impact of China's Paired Assistance Policy on the COVID-19 Crisis-An Empirical Case Study of Hubei Province

To control the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), China implemented the Paired Assistance Policy (PAP). Local responders in 16 cities in Hubei Province were paired with expert teams from 19 provinces and municipalities. Fully supported by the country's top-down political system, PAP played a significant role in alleviating the COVID-19 pandemic in Hubei Province and China as a whole. In this study, we examined PAP using a two-way fixed effects model with the cumulative number of medical support personnel and cumulative duration as measurements. The results show personnel and material support played an active role in the nation's response to the COVID-19 public health crisis.

Covid19/IT the digital side of Covid19: A picture from Italy with clustering and taxonomy

The Covid19 pandemic has significantly impacted on our lives, triggering a strong reaction resulting in vaccines, more effective diagnoses and therapies, policies to contain the pandemic outbreak, to name but a few. A significant contribution to their success comes from the computer science and information technology communities, both in support to other disciplines and as the primary driver of solutions for, e.g., diagnostics, social distancing, and contact tracing. In this work, we surveyed the Italian computer science and engineering community initiatives against the Covid19 pandemic. The 128 responses thus collected document the response of such a community during the first pandemic wave in Italy (February-May 2020), through several initiatives carried out by both single researchers and research groups able to promptly react to Covid19, even remotely. The data obtained by the survey are here reported, discussed and further investigated by Natural Language Processing techniques, to generate semantic clusters based on embedding representations of the surveyed activity descriptions. The resulting clusters have been then used to extend an existing Covid19 taxonomy with the classification of related research activities in computer science and information technology areas, summarizing this work contribution through a reproducible survey-to-taxonomy methodology.

Deep Learning to Improve the Sustainability of Agricultural Crops Affected by Phytosanitary Events: A Financial-Risk Approach

Given the challenges in reducing greenhouse gases (GHG), one of the sectors that have attracted the most attention in the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 (SDA-2030) is the agricultural sector. In this context, one of the crops that has had the most remarkable development worldwide has been oil-palm cultivation, thanks to its high productive potential and being one of the most efficient sources of palmitic acid production. However, despite the significant presence of oil palm in the food sector, oil-palm crops have not been exempt from criticism, as its cultivation has developed mainly in areas of ecological conservation around the world. This criticism has been extended to other crops in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) due to insecticides and fertilisers required to treat phytosanitary events in the field. To reduce this problem, researchers have used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to capture multi-spectral aerial images (MAIs) to assess fields’ plant vigour and detect phytosanitary events early using vegetation indices (VIs). However, detecting phytosanitary events in the early stages still suggests a technological challenge. Thus, to improve the environmental and financial sustainability of oil-palm crops, this paper proposes a hybrid deep-learning model (stacked–convolutional) for risk characterisation derived from a phytosanitary event, as suggested by lethal wilt (LW). For this purpose, the proposed model integrates a Lagrangian dispersion model of the backward-Gaussian-puff-tracking type into its convolutional structure, which allows describing the evolution of LW in the field for stages before a temporal reference scenario. The results show that the proposed model allowed the characterisation of the risk derived from a phytosanitary event, (PE) such as lethal wilt (LW), in the field, promoting improvement in agricultural environmental and financial sustainability activities through the integration of financial-risk concepts. This improved risk management will lead to lower projected losses due to a natural reduction in insecticides and fertilisers, allowing a balance between development and sustainability for this type of crop from the RSPO standards.

Impact of Environmental Quality on Health Outcomes in Saudi Arabia: Does Research and Development Matter?

Recent literature on the health impacts of CO₂ emissions suggests a variety of factors that may establish a more robust link. However, no previous study has explored the role of research and development (R&D) in explaining the nexus between CO₂ emissions and health outcomes. Using data for Saudi Arabia over the period 2000–2018, this paper investigates the ability of R&D (expenditures and environmentally related R&D) to reduce the incidence of emissions on population health outcomes, particularly infant mortality and life expectancy. We find (i) negative impacts of CO₂ emissions on health outcomes; (ii) R&D expenditures have a weak positive impact on health outcomes; (iii) additionally to their direct effects on health outcomes, R&D expenditures remarkably enhanced health outcomes through reducing per capita CO₂ emissions; (iv) R&D expenditures interact with CO₂ from electricity and heat production and from electricity and heat production to negatively influence health outcomes. Similarly, environmentally related R&D, measured by patents environmental-related technologies, interacts with per capita CO₂ emissions to negatively influence health outcomes. To address these negative impacts, we calculated the corresponding R&D thresholds. Policymakers in Saudi Arabia are therefore called to give more and more incentives for R&D to reduce emissions and then improve population health outcomes.

Save lives or save livelihoods? A cross-country analysis of COVID-19 pandemic and economic growth

This paper studies whether containing COVID-19 pandemic by stringent strategies deteriorates or saves economic growth. Since there are country-specific factors that could affect both economic growth and deaths due to COVID-19, we first start with a cross-country analysis on identifying risk and protective factors on the COVID-19 deaths using large across-country variation. Using data on 100 countries from 3 January to 27 November 2020 and taking into account the possibility of underreporting, we find that for deaths per million population, GDP per capita, population density, and income inequality are the three most important risk factors; government effectiveness, temperature, and hospital beds are the three most important protective factors. Second, inspired by the stochastic frontier literature, we construct a measure of pandemic containment effectiveness (PCE) after controlling for country-specific factors and rank countries by their PCE scores for deaths. Finally, by linking the PCE score with GDP growth data in Quarters 2 and 3 of 2020, we find that PCE is positively associated with economic growth in major economies. Countries with average PCE scores, such as Malaysia, would gain more GDP growth by 3.47 percentage points if they could improve their PCE scores for deaths to South Korea's level in Q2 of 2020. Therefore, there is not a trade-off between lives and livelihood facing by governments. Instead, to save economy, it is important to contain the pandemic first. Our conclusion is also mainly valid for infections due to COVID-19.

Impacts of air pollution on COVID-19 case fatality rate: a global analysis

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still rapidly spreading globally. To probe high-risk cities and the impacts of air pollution on public health, this study explores the relationship between the long-term average concentration of air pollution and the city-level case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 globally. Then, geographically weighted regression (GWR) is applied to examine the spatial variability of the relationships. Six air pollution factors, including nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), PM_2.5 (particles with diameter ≤2.5 μm), PM₁₀ (particles with diameter ≤10 μm), and air quality index (AQI), are positively associated with the city-level COVID-19 CFR. Our results indicate that a 1-unit increase in NO₂ (part per billion, PPB), SO₂ (PPB), O₃ (PPB), PM_2.5 (microgram per cubic meter, μg/m³), PM₁₀ (μg/m³), AQI (score), is related to a 1.450%, 1.005%, 0.992%, 0.860%, 0.568%, and 0.776% increase in the city-level COVID-19 CFR, respectively. Additionally, the effects of NO₂, O₃, PM_2.5, AQI, and probability of living with poor AQI on COVID-19 spatially vary in view of the estimation of the GWR. In other words, the adverse impacts of air pollution on health are different among the cities. In summary, long-term exposure to air pollution is negatively related to the COVID-19 health outcome, and the relationship is spatially non-stationary. Our research sheds light on the impacts of slashing air pollution on public health in the COVID-19 pandemic to help governments formulate air pollution policies in light of the local situations.

Impact of climate indicators on the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has left a major impact on daily lifestyle and human activities. Many recent studies confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic has human-to-human transmissibility. Additional studies claimed that other factors affect the viability, transmissibility, and propagation range of COVID-19. The effect of weather factors on the spread of COVID-19 has gained much attention among researchers. The current study investigates the relationship between climate indicators and daily detected COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia, focusing on the top five cities with confirmed cases. The examined climate indicators were temperature (°F), dew point (°F), humidity (%), wind speed (mph), and pressure (Hg). Using data from Spring 2020 and 2021, we conducted spatio-temporal correlation, regression, and time series analyses. The results provide preliminary evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic spread in most of the considered cities is significantly correlated with temperature (positive correlation) and pressure (negative correlation). The discrepancies in the results from different cites addressed in this study suggest that non-meteorological factors need to be explored in conjunction with weather attributes in a sufficiently long-term analysis to provide meaningful policy measures for the future.

Economic Uncertainty During COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and Asia

The purpose of this article is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on inflation and exchange rate volatility and to study the government measures implemented in order to support economies. Based on monthly data from January to September 2020 for 10 countries, the dynamic panel data model is used to study the effect of COVID-19 spread. The results reveal that high infections negatively affect exchange rate and inflation; the responses of governments increase inflation and result in a lower exchange rate. In fact, providing health protocols which entered the countries into a new economic and financial crisis since economic agents could not freely engage in economic activities. Therefore, policy makers in both regions should invest in health infrastructure to improve the capacity of the national health system to resist the epidemic of contagious diseases.

Reshaping the Healthcare Sector with Economic Policy Measures Based on COVID-19 Epidemic Severity: A Global Study

Governments around the world are looking for ways to manage economic consequences of COVID-19 and promote economic development. The aim of this study is to identify the areas where the application of economic policy measures would enhance the resilience of societies on epidemic risks. We use data on the COVID-19 pandemic outcome in a large number of countries. With the estimation of multiple econometric models, we identify areas being a reasonable choice for economic policy intervention. It was found that viable remediation actions worth taking can be identified either for long-, mid-, or short-term horizons, impacting the equality, healthcare sector, and national economy characteristics. We suggest encouraging research and development based on innovative technologies linked to industries in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and biotech, promoting transformation of healthcare systems based on new technologies, providing access to quality healthcare, promoting public healthcare providers, and investing in the development of regional healthcare infrastructure, as a tool of equal regional development based on economic assessment. Further, a central element of this study, i.e. the innovative identification matrix, could be populated as a unique policy framework, either for latest pandemic or any similar outbreaks in future.

Modeling Carbon Release of Brazilian Highest Economic Pole and Major Urban Emitter: Comparing Classical Methods and Artificial Neural Networks

Despite the concern about climate change and the associated negative impacts, fossil fuels continue to prevail in the global energy consumption. This paper aimed to propose the first model that relates CO2 emissions of Sao Paulo, the main urban center emitter in Brazil, with gross national product and energy consumption. Thus, we investigated the accuracy of three different methods: multivariate linear regression, elastic-net regression, and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. Comparing the results, we clearly demonstrated the superiority of artificial neural networks when compared with the other models. They presented better results of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 0.76%) and the highest possible coefficient of determination (R2 = 1.00). This investigation provides an innovative integrated climate-economic approach for the accurate prediction of carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be considered as a potential valuable decision-support tool for policymakers to design and implement effective environmental policies.

Modelling spatial variations of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): evidence from a global perspective

In late December 2019, strange pneumonia was detected in a seafood market in Wuhan, China which was later termed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. At present, the virus has spread across 232 countries worldwide killing 2,409,011 as of 17 February 2021 (9:37 CET). Motivated by a recent dataset, knowledge gaps, surge in global cases, and the need to combat the virus spread, this study examined the relationship between COVID-19 confirmed cases and attributable deaths at the global and regional levels. We used a panel of 232 countries (further disaggregated into Africa-49, Americas-54, Eastern Mediterranean-23, Europe-61, Southeast Asia-10, and Western Pacific-35) from 03 January 2020 to 28 November 2020, and the instrumental variable generalized method of moment's model (IV-GMM) for analysing the datasets. The results showed that COVID-19 confirmed cases at both the global and regional levels have a strong positive effect on deaths. Thus, the confirmed cases significantly increase attributable deaths at the global and regional levels. At the global level, a 1% increase in confirmed cases increases attributable deaths by 0.78%. Regionally, a 1% increase in confirmed cases increases attributable deaths by 0.65% in Africa, 0.90% in the Americas, 0.67% in the Eastern Mediterranean, 0.72% in Europe, 0.88% in Southeast Asia, and 0.52% in the Western Pacific. This study expands the understanding of the relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths by using a global dataset and the instrumental variable generalized method of moment's model (IV-GMM) for the analysis that addresses endogeneity and omitted variable issues.

Revisiting air quality during lockdown persuaded by second surge of COVID-19 of megacity Delhi, India

Is the impact of city-scale lockdown in response to 2nd surge of COVID-19, behavioural changes in people owing to yearlong cohabitation with COVID-19, and partial vaccination on air quality different from the impact of nationwide lockdown during COVID-19's 1st surge in March 2020? Targeting this objective, the present work has selected four phases pre-lockdown and lockdown of 1st and 2nd cycles of lockdown taking average air quality index (NAQI) from Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). The results clearly show that both the nationwide lockdown and the city-scale restriction are responsible for improving air quality in India's megacity Delhi, but the rate of improvement was higher (39%) during the first cycle of lockdown (nationwide) than during the second cycle of lockdown (city-scale). During city-scale lockdown, the disparity in NAQI between the core and the periphery is obvious. Due to the effect of economic activities surrounding Delhi, around 10 km of the city's interior has experienced high NAQI. The reason for the lower NAQI improvement during the second lockdown cycle is likely due to relief from initial fear following a year of cohabitation with COVID-19, partial vaccination, and partial relaxation in industrial sectors to avoid the economic hardships experienced during the first lockdown cycle.

Using Daily Nighttime Lights to Monitor Spatiotemporal Patterns of Human Lifestyle under COVID-19: The Case of Saudi Arabia

A novel coronavirus, COVID-19, appeared at the beginning of 2020 and within a few months spread worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic had some of its greatest impacts on social, economic and religious activities. This study focused on the application of daily nighttime light (NTL) data (VNP46A2) to measure the spatiotemporal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the human lifestyle in Saudi Arabia at the national, province and governorate levels as well as on selected cities and sites. The results show that NTL brightness was reduced in all the pandemic periods in 2020 compared with a pre-pandemic period in 2019, and this was consistent with the socioeconomic results. An early pandemic period showed the greatest effects on the human lifestyle due to the closure of mosques and the implementation of a curfew. A slight improvement in the NTL intensity was observed in later pandemic periods, which represented Ramadan and Eid Alfiter days when Muslims usually increase the light of their houses. Closures of the two holy mosques in Makkah and Madinah affected the human lifestyle in these holy cities as well as that of Umrah pilgrims inside Saudi Arabia and abroad. The findings of this study confirm that the social and cultural context of each country must be taken into account when interpreting COVID-19 impacts, and that analysis of difference in nighttime lights is sensitive to these factors. In Saudi Arabia, the origin of Islam and one of the main sources of global energy, the preventive measures taken not only affected Saudi society; impacts spread further and reached the entire Islamic society and other societies, too.

Assessing a fossil fuels externality with a new neural networks and image optimisation algorithm: the case of atmospheric pollutants as confounders to COVID-19 lethality

This paper demonstrates how the combustion of fossil fuels for transport purpose might cause health implications. Based on an original case study [i.e. the Hubei province in China, the epicentre of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic], we collected data on atmospheric pollutants (PM2.5, PM10 and CO2) and economic growth (GDP), along with daily series on COVID-19 indicators (cases, resuscitations and deaths). Then, we adopted an innovative Machine Learning approach, applying a new image Neural Networks model to investigate the causal relationships among economic, atmospheric and COVID-19 indicators. Empirical findings emphasise that any change in economic activity is found to substantially affect the dynamic levels of PM2.5, PM10 and CO2 which, in turn, generates significant variations in the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and its associated lethality. As a robustness check, the conduction of an optimisation algorithm further corroborates previous results.

Effect of Anti-COVID-19 Measures on Atmospheric Pollutants Correlated with the Economies of Medium-sized Cities in 10 Urban Areas of Grand Est Region, France

Using Sentinel-5P data, this study investigated the magnitude of change in the concentration of air pollutants (NO₂, HCHO, SO₂, O₃, CO, and aerosol index) in the air of ten cities and urban areas of the French region of Grand Est as a result of the first lockdown imposed between March 17, 2020 and May 11, 2020. The results showed that the air quality in the urban environments of Grand Est improved significantly compared to the same period in 2019 without lockdown. NO₂, O₃, aerosol index and CO were the pollutants that exhibited maximum reductions by an average of -33.98%, -5.94%, -26.82% and -0.66%, respectively (the observed maximum decreases were -54.7%, -7.7%, -13.1%, and -5.3%, respectively). The largest decrease occurred in the Public Establishments of Inter-municipal Cooperation (EPCI, in French: Établissement public de coopération intercommunale) areas of Eurométropole de Strasbourg, CA Colmar, and CA Mulhouse Alsace. The maximum decrease in air pollution first occurred in land cover classes close to cities, followed by built-up urban areas. In this study, a global depollution index known as the atmospheric clearance index (ACI) was developed, which involved several air pollution parameters, and quantitatively analyzed the decrease in contamination levels of the atmosphere in this region. In addition, the correlation between the novel ACI and other population and economic development indices was studied. The results indicated that there was a negative and statistically significant correlation between ACI and population density, gross domestic product, gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, number of employees, and active enterprises.

Global effect of city-to-city air pollution, health conditions, climatic & socio-economic factors on COVID-19 pandemic

The rate of spread of the global pandemic calls for much attention from the empirical literature. The limitation of extant literature in assessing a comprehensive COVID-19 portfolio that accounts for complexities in the spread and containment of the virus underscores this study. We investigate the effect of city-to-city air pollutant species, meteorological conditions, underlying health conditions, socio-economic and demographic factors on COVID-19 health outcomes. We utilize a panel estimation of 615 cities in 6 continents from January 1 to June 11, 2020. While social distancing measures, movement restrictions and lockdown are reported to have improved environmental quality, we show that ambient PM_2.5 remains unhealthy and above the acceptable threshold in several countries. Our empirical assessment shows that while ambient PM_2.5, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, pressure, dew, Windgust, and windspeed increase the spread of COVID-19, high relative humidity and ambient temperature have mitigation effect on COVID-19, hence, decreases the number of confirmed cases. We report 66.3% of countries projected to experience a second wave of COVID-19 if government stringency and safety protocols are not enhanced. By extension, our assessments demonstrate that several factors namely underlying health conditions, meteorological, air pollution, health system quality, socio-economic and demographics spur the reproduction effect of COVID-19 across countries. Our study highlights the importance of government stringency in containing the spread of COVID-19 and its impacts.

COVID-19 and the Environment, Review and Analysis

We reviewed studies linking COVID-19 cases and deaths with the environment, focusing on relationships with air pollution. We found both short- and long-term observational relationships with a range of regulated pollutants, although only two studies considered both cases (i.e., infections) and deaths within a common analytical framework. Most of these studies were limited to a few months of the pandemic period. Statistically significant relationships were found more often for PM2.5 and NO2 than for other regulated pollutants, but no rationale was suggested for such short-term relationships; latency was seldom considered for long-term relationships. It was also unclear whether confounding had been adequately controlled in either type of study. Studies of air quality improvement following lockdowns found more robust relationships with local (CO, NO2) rather than regional (PM2.5, O3) pollutants, but meteorological confounding was seldom considered. Only one of seven studies of airborne virus transmission reported actual measurements. Overall, we found the existing body of literature to be more suggestive than definitive. Due to these various deficiencies, we assembled a new state-level database of cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths through March 2021 with a range of potential predictor variables and performed linear regression analyses on various combinations. As single predictors, we found significant (p < 0.05) relationships between cumulative cases and household crowding (+), education (−), face-mask usage (−), or voting Republican (+). For cumulative deaths, we found significant relationships with education (−), black race (+), or previous levels of PM2.5 (+). NOx (+), and elemental carbon (EC, +). We found no relationships between long-term air quality and cumulative COVID-19 cases. Our associations linking air pollution with COVID-19 mortality were not statistically different from those for all-cause mortality in previous studies. In multiple mortality regressions combining air pollution, race, and education, NOx and EC remained significant but PM2.5 did not. We concluded that the current worldwide emphasis on PM2.5 is misplaced. We predicted air pollutant effects of a few percentage points, but individual differences between races, political identification, and post-graduate education were of the order of factors of 2 to 4. In general, the factors predicting infection were personal and related to COVID-19 exposure, while those predicting subsequent mortality tended to be more situational and related to geography. Overall, we concluded that how you live is more important than where you live.

Emerging role of air pollution and meteorological parameters in COVID-19

Exposure to air pollutants has been associated with respiratory viral infections. Epidemiological studies have shown that air pollution exposure is related to increased cases of SARS-COV-2 infection and COVID-19-associated mortality. In addition, the changes of meteorological parameters have also been implicated in the occurrence and development of COVID-19. However, the molecular mechanisms by which pollutant exposure and changes of meteorological parameters affects COVID-19 remains unknown. This review summarizes the biology of COVID-19 and the route of viral transmission, and elaborates on the relationship between air pollution and climate indicators and COVID-19. Finally, we envisaged the potential roles of air pollution and meteorological parameters in COVID-19.

Using an Artificial Neural Networks Experiment to Assess the Links among Financial Development and Growth in Agriculture

Financial development, productivity, and growth are interconnected, but the direction of causality remains unclear. The relevance of these linkages is likely different for developing and developed economies, yet comparative cross-country studies are scant. The paper analyses the relationship among credit access, output and productivity in the agricultural sector for a large set of countries, over the period 2000–2012, using an Artificial Neural Networks approach. Empirical findings show that these three variables influence each other reciprocally, although marked differences exist among groups of countries. The role of credit access is more prominent for the OECD countries and less important for countries with a lower level of economic de-elopement. Our analysis allows us to highlight the specific effects of credit in stimulating the development of the agricultural sector: in developing countries, credit access significantly affects production, whereas in developed countries, it also has an impact on productivity.