Spatial analysis enables priority selection in conservation practices for landscapes that need ecological security

Ecological network degradation and conservation prioritization analysis of red-crowned crane habitats: a multi-model approach

The loss of coastal wetlands and the degradation of their ecological functions have posed a serious threat to the habitats of global migratory waterbirds, particularly the red-crowned cranes (Grus japonensis). Exploring dynamic changes in the habitat of this flagship species is essential for conserving waterbird diversity and improving wetland ecosystem functions. Therefore, using the Yancheng Biosphere Reserve (YBR)-the largest overwintering site for red-crowned cranes along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway-as a case study, we expanded beyond traditional habitat suitability assessments to include ecological networks, establishing a comprehensive evaluation framework. Specifically, we first enhanced the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) by incorporating a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on the habitat preferences of red-crowned cranes. Ecological corridors were then extracted using the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model and their importance was prioritized through a combination of gravity models and landscape connectivity indices. Additionally, circuit theory was employed to identify critical stepping stones and delineate key regions for protection. Our results demonstrated that the current ecological network exhibits poor stability and connectivity, characterized by the fragmentation and loss of ecological sources, degradation and breakup of ecological corridors, and increasing risks to stepping stones. Specifically, during 1991-2022, the total area of ecological sources significantly decreased from 1161.98 km2 to 221.81 km2, and the ecological sources in the southern YBR entirely loss after 2013. Optional low-importance, weak-connectivity corridors largely disappeared, while a few single high-importance, strong-connectivity corridors gradually emerged in their place, as a result of largely decreasing of key ecological corridors from 43 to 15. The proportion of stepping stones associated with natural wetlands decreased from 55.47 % to 38.37 %, accompanied by a reduction in area of the northern YBR. Based on the above analysis, we proposed three categories of conservation areas, aiming to bolster wetland conservation efforts and enhance waterbird biodiversity.

Land Use and Climate Change Accelerate the Loss of Habitat and Ecological Corridor to Reeves's Pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) in China

Human activity and climate change are widely considered to be primarily responsible for the extinction of Galliformes birds. Due to a decline in population, the Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii), a member of the Galliformes family, was recently elevated to first-class national protected status in China. However, determining the causal factors of their extinction and carrying out protection measures appear to be challenging owing to a lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Here, based on a national field survey, we used habitat suitability models and integrated data on geographical environment, road development, land use, and climate change to predict the potential changes in the distribution and connectivity of the habitat of Reeves's pheasant from 1995 to 2050. Furthermore, ecological corridors were identified using the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. The prioritized areas for habitat restoration were determined by integrating the importance indices of ecological sources and corridors. Our results indicated that both land use and climate change were linked to the increased habitat loss for the Reeves's pheasant. In more recent decades, road construction and land use changes have been linked to a rise in habitat loss, and future climate change has been predicted to cause the habitat to become even more fragmented and lose 89.58% of its total area. The ecological corridor for Reeves's pheasant will continue to decline by 88.55%. To counteract the negative effects of human activity and climate change on the survivorship of Reeves's pheasant, we recommend taking immediate actions, including bolstering cooperation among provincial governments, restoring habitats, and creating ecological corridors among important habitats.

Construction of ecological security pattern in combination with landslide sensitivity: A case study of Yan'an City, China

The ecological security pattern can harmonize the relationship between natural environmental protection and socio-economic development. This study proposes a regional ecological security pattern optimization framework by integrating theory and practice with landslide sensitivity and landscape structure. Using Yan'an City as an example, this study optimizes the landscape layout of preliminary ecological sources. The landslide sensitivity index is generated using the information value model and then used to adjust the ecological resistance surface. The Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) approach is used to extract ecological corridors, locate ecological nodes utilizing circuit theory, and outline crucial ecological control areas. The results demonstrate: (1) the ecological sources are primarily composed of forestlands, with a total area of 2,352.2400 km2, concentrated in the southwest, central, and southeast regions. The optimal landscape granularity for the source patches is 600 m. (2) Yan'an is divided into four landslide sensitivity level zones: extremely high, high, medium, and low, with the overall landslide sensitivity of the region being high. (3) The highest ecological resistance is observed in built-up land and the lowest in forestland. The total number of ecological corridors is 26, avoiding most of the highly sensitive areas of landslides. (4) The number of ecological pinch points is 61, while the ecological barrier points amounted to 54. The critical ecological control areas consist mainly of cropland, forestland, and grassland, and differentiated restoration strategies are proposed to address their unique characteristics. The findings of the research can offer scientific guidance for the practice of ecological security protection in geohazard-prone areas.

Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Trends of Mpox in Mainland China: Spatiotemporal Ecological Comparison Study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization declared mpox an international public health emergency. Since January 1, 2022, China has been ranked among the top 10 countries most affected by the mpox outbreak globally. However, there is a lack of spatial epidemiological studies on mpox, which are crucial for accurately mapping the spatial distribution and clustering of the disease.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to provide geographically accurate visual evidence to determine priority areas for mpox prevention and control.

METHODS

Locally confirmed mpox cases were collected between June and November 2023 from 31 provinces of mainland China excluding Taiwan, Macao, and Hong Kong. Spatiotemporal epidemiological analyses, including spatial autocorrelation and regression analyses, were conducted to identify the spatiotemporal characteristics and clustering patterns of mpox attack rate and its spatial relationship with sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS

From June to November 2023, a total of 1610 locally confirmed mpox cases were reported in 30 provinces in mainland China, resulting in an attack rate of 11.40 per 10 million people. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that in July (Moran I=0.0938; P=.08), August (Moran I=0.1276; P=.08), and September (Moran I=0.0934; P=.07), the attack rates of mpox exhibited a clustered pattern and positive spatial autocorrelation. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistics identified hot spots of mpox attack rates in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Hainan. Beijing and Tianjin were consistent hot spots from June to October. No cold spots with low mpox attack rates were detected by the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. Local Moran I statistics identified a high-high (HH) clustering of mpox attack rates in Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin. Guangdong province consistently exhibited HH clustering from June to November, while Beijing and Tianjin were identified as HH clusters from July to September. Low-low clusters were mainly located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, and Gansu. Ordinary least squares regression models showed that the cumulative mpox attack rates were significantly and positively associated with the proportion of the urban population (t0.05/2,1=2.4041 P=.02), per capita gross domestic product (t0.05/2,1=2.6955; P=.01), per capita disposable income (t0.05/2,1=2.8303; P=.008), per capita consumption expenditure (PCCE; t0.05/2,1=2.7452; P=.01), and PCCE for health care (t0.05/2,1=2.5924; P=.01). The geographically weighted regression models indicated a positive association and spatial heterogeneity between cumulative mpox attack rates and the proportion of the urban population, per capita gross domestic product, per capita disposable income, and PCCE, with high R2 values in north and northeast China.

CONCLUSIONS

Hot spots and HH clustering of mpox attack rates identified by local spatial autocorrelation analysis should be considered key areas for precision prevention and control of mpox. Specifically, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin provinces should be prioritized for mpox prevention and control. These findings provide geographically precise and visualized evidence to assist in identifying key areas for targeted prevention and control.

Multi-objective ecological restoration priority in China: Cost-benefit optimization in different ecological performance regimes based on planetary boundaries

In the context of the "United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration", optimizing spatiotemporal arrangements for ecological restoration is an important approach to enhancing overall socioecological benefits for sustainable development. However, against the background of ecological degradation caused by the human use of most natural resources at levels that have approached or exceeded the safe and sustainable boundaries of ecosystems, it is key to explain how to optimize ecological restoration by classified management and optimal total benefits. In response to these issues, we combined spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics at the national scale in China to construct five ecological performance regimes defined by indicators that use planetary boundaries and ecological pressures which served as the basis for prioritizing ecological restoration areas and implementing zoning control. By integrating habitat conservation, biodiversity, water supply, and restoration cost constraints, seven ecological restoration scenarios were simulated to optimize the spatial layout of ecological restoration projects (ERPs). The results indicated that the provinces with unsustainable freshwater use, climate change, and land use accounted for more than 25%, 66.7%, and 25%, respectively, of the total area. Only 30% of the provinces experienced a decrease in environmental pressure. Based on the ecological performance regimes, ERP sites spanning the past 20 years were identified, and more than 50% of the priority areas were clustered in regime areas with increased ecological stress. As the restoration area targets doubled (40%) from the baseline (20%), a multi-objective scenario presents a trade-off between expanded ERPs in areas with highly beneficial effects and minimal restoration costs. In conclusion, a reasonable classification and management regime is the basis for targeted restoration. Coordinating multiple objectives and costs in ecological restoration is the key to maximizing socio-ecological benefits. Our study offered new perspectives on systematic and sustainable planning for ecological restoration.

Regarding reference state to identify priority areas for ecological restoration in a karst region

Widespread degradation of natural ecosystems around the globe has resulted in several ecological problems. Ecological restoration is considered a global priority as an important means of mitigating ecosystem degradation and enhancing ecosystem services provision. Regarding ecosystem reference state is a prerequisite for ecological restoration. However, there were few studies focusing on how to regard reference state for ecological restoration, especially under a changing climate. Taking Guizhou Province, a typical karst region in China, as a case study area, in this study we firstly assessed ecosystem services under homogeneous climate conditions. Secondly, we defined the optimal ecosystem services as ecosystem reference state, and then evaluated restoration suitability under a comprehensive framework. Finally, ecological restoration priority areas (EPRAs), which included ecological reconstruction areas, assisted regeneration areas and conservation priority areas needing restoration, were identified by integrating restoration suitability and conservation priority areas. The results showed that the services of water conservation and habitat maintenance only increased less than 10% from 2001 to 2018. Identified ecological reconstruction areas and assisted regeneration areas covered 1078 km2 and 1159 km2 respectively. Additionally, 15 conservation priority areas with the total area of 18,507 km2 were identified as conservation priority areas needing restoration. Accounting for 11.78% of the total area, ERPAs were mostly located in the eastern part of Guizhou, including Qiandongnan, Tongren, and Zunyi. The approach proposed here for regarding ecosystem reference state after controlling climate variables and the framework for identifying ERPAs can provide a scientific reference for large-scale ecological restoration planning.