Intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use

Electronic cigarettes and subsequent cigarette smoking in young people: A systematic review

AIMS

To assess the evidence for a relationship between the use of e-cigarettes and subsequent smoking in young people (≤29 years), and whether this differs by demographic characteristics.

METHODS

Systematic review with association direction plots (searches to April 2023). Screening, data extraction and critical appraisal followed Cochrane methods. Our primary outcome was the association between e-cigarette use, availability or both, and change in population rate of smoking in young people. The secondary outcomes were initiation, progression and cessation of smoking at individual level. We assessed certainty using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE).

RESULTS

We included 126 studies. For our primary outcome, there was very low certainty evidence (limited by risk of bias and inconsistency) suggesting that e-cigarette use and availability were inversely associated with smoking in young people (i.e. as e-cigarettes became more available and/or used more widely, youth smoking rates went down or, conversely, as e-cigarettes were restricted, youth smoking rates went up). All secondary outcomes were judged to be very low certainty due to very serious risk of bias. Data consistently showed direct associations between vaping at baseline and smoking initiation (28 studies) and smoking progression (5 studies). The four studies contributing data on smoking cessation had mixed results, precluding drawing any conclusion on the direction of association. There was limited information to determine whether relationships varied by sociodemographic characteristics.

CONCLUSION

At an individual level, people who vape appear to be more likely to go on to smoke than people who do not vape; however, it is unclear if these behaviours are causally linked. Very low certainty evidence suggests that youth vaping and smoking could be inversely related.

Beneficial and Harmful Tobacco-Use Transitions Associated With ENDS in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

ENDS can benefit those who use combustible tobacco if they transition completely to ENDS. ENDS can also result in nicotine addiction among nicotine-naïve people.

METHODS

ENDS-related tobacco-use transitions were assessed among U.S. youth and adults using weighted Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study Waves 4 (2016-2017) and 5 (2018-2019) adult and youth data. A beneficial transition was defined as those who used combustible tobacco and transitioned exclusively to ENDS use or quit with the help of ENDS. A harmful transition was defined as (1) nonusers of any tobacco product who initiated ENDS (with or without combustible tobacco co-use) or (2) those who exclusively used ENDS and then added or transitioned to combustible tobacco use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine modified definitions of beneficial and harmful transitions based on different assumptions. The analyses were conducted between August 2024 and November 2024.

RESULTS

Total sample size (N=31,733) represented ∼256 million people. For those using a combustible tobacco product in Wave 4, 2.1 million (∼4.6%) transitioned to exclusive ENDS use or to ENDS-assisted cessation of a combustible tobacco product (benefit). In addition, 4.6 million (∼%2.2) transitioned from nonuse to ENDS or, among people who use ENDS exclusively in Wave 4, added combustible or transitioned to combustible tobacco use in Wave 5 (harm).

CONCLUSIONS

For every 1 beneficial transition, ENDS use was associated with 2.15 harmful transitions; this ratio ranged from 0.75 to 2.77 in sensitivity analyses. With effective restrictions on ENDS access and marketing for tobacco-naïve people, the population benefits of ENDS could outweigh population harms.

Effect of state e-cigarette tax policies on the transitions of youth tobacco/nicotine use patterns in the USA: evidence from national longitudinal data

INTRODUCTION

Several US states have implemented regulations, including e-cigarette taxes, primarily to reduce e-cigarette use among youth and young adults. Although several studies have examined e-cigarette tax regulations, studies assessing the impact of e-cigarette taxes on the transitions of tobacco/nicotine use patterns are largely absent from the extant literature.

METHODS

We included 9774 participants aged 12-17 years at baseline from waves 1 to 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We estimated transition probabilities between non-current users, e-cigarette-exclusive users and other tobacco/nicotine users. The inverse probability of treatment weighting method was applied to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) of e-cigarette tax policies on the transitions between tobacco/nicotine use classes among youth and young adults.

RESULTS

Participants in the states with e-cigarette tax policies had lower probabilities of progressing from non-current use to the other two classes and higher probabilities of opposite transitions than those without. The e-cigarette tax policies significantly decreased the probability of remaining as e-cigarette-exclusive users (ATT=-0.15 (95% CI -0.23, -0.08)) and increased their probability of transitioning to non-current users (0.19 (95% CI 0.09, 0.29)), compared with if they had not been exposed to e-cigarette tax policies. These policies also increased the probability of remaining in non-current users (0.02 (95% CI 0.01, 0.03)) and decreased the probability of progressing to other classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that e-cigarette tax policies may prevent and reduce exclusive e-cigarette use in youths, providing valuable insights for states that have not implemented e-cigarette taxes.

The impacts of product characteristics and regulatory environment on smokers' preferences for tobacco and alcohol: Evidence from a volumetric choice experiment

OBJECTIVE

Concurrent use of alcohol and cigarettes is well-documented in the literature. However, it is unclear how e-cigarette regulations in a growing number of localities impact the use of tobacco and alcohol in the US. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of excise taxes, tobacco use restrictions in restaurants/bars, and availability of alcohol flavor in e-cigarettes on tobacco consumption, and their cross impacts on alcohol consumption.

METHOD

A total of 181 US adult smokers who were using e-cigarettes and consuming alcohol participated in online volumetric choice experiments and reported on the quantity they would purchase among cigarettes, closed-system e-cigarettes, beer, and one other alcohol product (wine/liquor) under varying policy scenarios.

RESULTS

Estimated own-price elasticities of demand for beer, liquor/wine, and cigarettes were -0.10, -0.11, and -0.16, respectively (p <  0.001). Higher beer (cross-price elasticity =  0.13) and liquor/wine prices (cross-price elasticity =  0.05) increased e-cigarette consumption (p <  0.05). If e-cigarettes were allowed in bars/restaurants, their consumption increased by 2.4 units (p <  0.001), and if cigarettes were allowed in bars/restaurants, e-cigarette consumption increased by 1.9 units (p <  0.01), relative to the mean consumption level. Greater reported weekly spending on alcohol and/or tobacco was associated with higher consumption of all products (p <  0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher taxes or prices may reduce the consumption of beer, liquor/wine, and cigarettes. E-cigarettes are economic substitutes for alcohol among smokers who are currently drinking and using e-cigarettes. Regulating tobacco indoor use will have an impact on e-cigarette consumption.

How cigarette excise tax pass-through to prices responds to the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs)

BACKGROUND

How excise taxes are passed through to prices determines whether tax policies will be effective in changing smoking behaviours. Though previous literature has documented that cigarette taxes are overly shifted to prices, there is limited evidence on how cigarette tax pass-through to prices is affected by the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs) in the US market.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates how cigarette excise tax pass-through rate varied by price levels (the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile prices) and the uptake and evolution of ECs.

METHODS

Tax pass-through rates were assessed using ordinary least squares regressions while controlling for state, year and month fixed effects. Different trends were then tested for the pre-EC uptake era (2006-2011), EC uptake era (2012-2016) and the evolution of nicotine salt-based ECs era (2017 and later).

FINDINGS

Cigarette excise taxes were fully shifted to the 25th and 50th percentile prices and overly shifted to the 75th percentile prices at a 1:1.1 rate. While cigarette excise taxes had a continuous impact on raising prices, the tax pass-through rates were lower for lower priced cigarettes, and states imposed lower taxes.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing to raise cigarette taxes may be needed to create financial incentives to encourage people who smoke to switch to ECs. In addition, continuing to raise cigarette taxes and additional pricing policies such as price promotion restrictions are needed to increase retail prices and reduce price minimisation opportunities.

Flavored E-Cigarette Sales Restrictions and Young Adult Tobacco Use

Importance

More than one-quarter of US residents live in states or localities that restrict sales of flavored electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), often as a means to reduce youth vaping. Yet, how these policies affect young adult vaping and smoking remains unclear.

Objective

To estimate the effects of ENDS flavor restrictions on ENDS use and cigarette smoking among young adults (age 18-29 years) in the US.

Design, Participants, and Setting

This quasi-experimental analysis used annual survey data from the 2016 to 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a series of nationally- and state-representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys of noninstitutionalized civilian adults in the US. Two-way fixed-effects specifications were estimated to assess how ENDS flavor restrictions affect young adults' use of ENDS and cigarettes. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders including concurrent tobacco control policies, respondent demographic characteristics, and socioeconomic factors. Data analyses were conducted in November 2023 and repeated in October 2024 to incorporate newly released 2023 survey data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Current and daily use of ENDS and of cigarettes as measured in the BRFSS.

Results

Balanced panel analyses of 242 154 individuals aged 18 to 29 years consistently found that state ENDS flavor restrictions were associated with statistically significant reductions in daily vaping and increases in daily cigarette smoking. Estimates were similar across robustness checks, with the main specification showing 3.6 (95% CI, -5.0 to -2.1) percentage point (ppt) reductions in daily vaping and 2.2 ppt increases in daily cigarette smoking (95% CI, 1.0 to 3.4) relative to changes in states without restrictions. These estimates are equivalent to an 80% reduction in daily vaping and 22% increase in daily smoking compared with 2018 mean rates.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this quasi-experimental analysis of BRFSS survey data indicate that state restrictions on flavored ENDS sales were associated with reduced vaping among young adults but may have unintentionally increased cigarette smoking, potentially offsetting public health gains. These findings suggest that alleviating the burden of tobacco-related disease will require regulatory strategies that balance reducing vaping with preventing increases in more lethal, combustible tobacco use.

Do e-cigarette retail licensure laws reduce youth tobacco use?

E-cigarette licensure laws (ELLs) require retailers to obtain a state license to sell e-cigarettes over the counter. This study is the first to comprehensively explore the effect of ELL adoption on youth tobacco product use. Using data from the State Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) and a difference-in-differences approach, we find no evidence that ELL adoption reduces youth ENDS use. The precision of our estimates allows us to rule out, with 95 % confidence, ELL-induced declines in prior-month, frequent, and everyday youth ENDS use of more than 0.7, 0.3, and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. The pattern of null findings persists when we examine ELLs that impose higher penalties for retailer non-compliance, higher renewable licensure fees, and criminal in addition to civil penalties. We conclude that ELLs have only limited success in curbing access to ENDS among youths.

Harm reduction for addictive consumption: When does it improve health and when does it backfire?

Some harm reduction strategies encourage individuals to switch from a harmful addictive good to a less harmful addictive good; examples include e-cigarettes (substitutes for combustible cigarettes) and methadone and buprenorphine (substitutes for opioids). These have proven to be controversial. Advocates argue that people struggling with addiction benefit because they can switch to a less harmful substance, but opponents argue that this could encourage abstainers to begin using the harm-reduction method or even, eventually, the original addictive good. This paper builds on theories of addiction to model the introduction of a harm reduction method, and demonstrates the conditions under which each side is correct.

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of population-level interventions to tackle smoking behaviour

This preregistered systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD 42022311392) aimed to synthesize the effectiveness of all available population-level tobacco policies on smoking behaviour. Our search across 5 databases and leading organizational websites resulted in 9,925 records, with 476 studies meeting our inclusion criteria. In our narrative summary and both pairwise and network meta-analyses, we identified anti-smoking campaigns, health warnings and tax increases as the most effective tobacco policies for promoting smoking cessation. Flavour bans and free/discounted nicotine replacement therapy also showed statistically significant positive effects on quit rates. The network meta-analysis results further indicated that smoking bans, anti-tobacco campaigns and tax increases effectively reduced smoking prevalence. In addition, flavour bans significantly reduced e-cigarette consumption. Both the narrative summary and the meta-analyses revealed that smoking bans, tax increases and anti-tobacco campaigns were associated with reductions in tobacco consumption and sales. On the basis of the available evidence, anti-tobacco campaigns, smoking bans, health warnings and tax increases are probably the most effective policies for curbing smoking behaviour.

Standardising the measurement of e-cigarette tax rates in the USA (2nd edition), 2010-2023

INTRODUCTION

30 states enacted e-cigarette taxes by the end of 2023. E-cigarette tax schema in the USA vary, in contrast to cigarette taxes that are standardised as an excise tax amount per pack. Some states use excise taxes on liquid and containers, others wholesale sales taxes and others retail sales taxes. Increasingly, states are taxing open system and closed system products differently. It is therefore difficult to understand the relative magnitudes of these e-cigarette taxes and their size relative to cigarette taxes.

OBJECTIVE

To update and publish a database of state and local quarterly e-cigarette tax rates from 2010 to 2023, standardised as the rate per millilitre of fluid, for both closed system and open system products.

METHODS

Using Universal Product Code-level e-cigarette sales from the NielsenIQ Retail Scanner Data along with e-cigarette product characteristics collected from internet searches and visits to e-cigarette retailers, we develop a method to standardise e-cigarette tax rates as an equivalent average excise tax rate measured per millilitre of fluid.

RESULTS

In 2023, the average American resided in a location with $3.21 in cigarette taxes and $0.49 in closed system e-cigarette taxes (per 0.7 fluid millilitre). Among the 10 states using segmented taxation for closed and open systems, the average open system e-cigarette tax was 85% lower.

CONCLUSIONS

The public availability of this updated database of state and local standardised e-cigarette tax rates will improve and expand research on effects of e-cigarette taxes on tobacco and related outcomes.

The effect of vertical identification card laws on teenage tobacco and alcohol use

We study the impact of vertical identification card laws, which changed the orientation of driver's licenses and state identification cards from horizontal to vertical for those under 21 years, on teenage tobacco and alcohol use. We study this question using four national datasets (pooled national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, National Youth Tobacco Survey, Current Population Survey to Tobacco Use Supplements, and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System). We improve previous databases of vertical ID law implementation by using original archival research to identify the exact date of the law change. We estimate models using standard two-way fixed effects and stacked difference-in-differences that avoid bias from dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects. Using data through 2021, we do not find evidence of reductions in teenage tobacco and alcohol use. While these laws reduce retail-based purchasing, they also increase social sourcing, thus leading to no net impact on use.

Transitions between smoking and vaping: Evidence (or lack thereof) on potential differences by gender and sex

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize existing evidence on possible differential effects by sex and gender from two Cochrane reviews evaluating vaping and smoking transitions.

METHODS

We screened included studies from two Cochrane reviews for studies reporting smoking outcomes based on gender or sex. The first review examines the effects of using e-cigarettes to help people quit smoking and includes randomized controlled trials and uncontrolled intervention studies published to July 2023. The second review aims to assess the evidence on the relationship between the use and availability of e-cigarettes and subsequent smoking in young people (aged 29 and younger) and includes quasi-experimental and cohort studies published to April 2023. Due to the paucity and heterogeneity of data, we report results narratively.

RESULTS

10 of 161 studies included in the two relevant reviews met our criteria. Only five reported analyzing whether observed effects or associations varied based on sex and/or gender. A further three provided relevant descriptive information, and two did not report overall outcomes regarding vaping and smoking transitions but did investigate whether these differed by sex/gender. Synthesized data were largely inconclusive, but there was some suggestion that vaping was more strongly associated with subsequent smoking in young males than females. No studies reported data on nonbinary participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite plausible reasons why sex and gender may be moderators of vaping and smoking transitions, there is little evidence investigating this. Future studies of vaping and smoking transitions should conduct and report analyses investigating potential differences based on sex and gender.

Measures of youth e-cigarette use: strengths, weaknesses and recommendations

This perspective discusses how to best define "e-cigarette use" among youth in a way that is relevant to individual and human health. Commonly-used definitions of youth e-cigarette use have been adapted from measures validated for tobacco cigarette smoking among adults, but may not carry the same meaning for a different product (with a much lower risk profile and very different patterns of use) and a different population (whose use is more often transient and experimental, rather than frequent and persistent). We discuss strengths and weaknesses of different definitions, and recommend improvements in defining youth e-cigarette use. We find that current literature employs a range of definitions of e-cigarette use, from lifetime use ("even a puff") to daily use. More lenient measures capture more potentially at-risk youth, but much of this is transient experimentation that has negligible risks in and itself, if not persistent. More stringent measures such as daily use are more relevant to individual and public health. Future research should examine possible improvements to definitions which include intensity of use (e.g., number of puffs per day) and persistence/duration of use, either via self-report or technology-assisted data capture.

The "Gateway" hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations

BACKGROUND

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) offer a substantial harm reduction opportunity for adults who smoke and are unlikely to quit. However, a major concern about ENDS is their use by non-smoking youth, and particularly whether ENDS are acting as a "gateway" that leads youth to later start smoking cigarettes. However, evidence for the gateway hypothesis can be interpreted in alternative ways, e.g. that youth who have certain characteristics were already predisposed to use both ENDS and cigarettes ("common liability" explanation).

AIMS

This commentary provides an evaluation of the gateway hypothesis that is accessible by a lay audience. This paper first reviews and evaluates the evidence interpreted as supporting the gateway hypothesis. Important alternative explanations (i.e., common liability) are discussed, as are different types of evidence (i.e., population-level trends) that can help differentiate between these competing explanations.

OVERVIEW

Evidence for the gateway hypothesis is based on the finding that youth who use ENDS are more likely to also smoke cigarettes. However, this evidence suffers from an important flaw: these studies fail to fully account for some youths' pre-existing tendency to use products containing nicotine, and inappropriately interpret the results as ENDS use causing some youth to smoke. Common liability studies suggest that ENDS use does not, in and of itself, directly cause youth to later smoke cigarettes, beyond their pre-existing tendency to use products containing nicotine. Population-level trends show that youth cigarette smoking declined faster after ENDS use became common, which contradicts the central prediction of the gateway hypothesis (i.e. that youth smoking would be more common following ENDS uptake, than otherwise be expected).

CONCLUSION

Evidence offered in support of the gateway hypothesis does not establish that ENDS use causes youth to also smoke cigarettes. Instead, this evidence is better interpreted as resulting from a common liability to use both ENDS and cigarettes. Population-level trends are inconsistent with the gateway hypothesis, and instead are consistent with (but do not prove) ENDS displacing cigarettes. Policies based on misinterpreting a causal gateway effect may be ineffective at best, and risk the negative unintended consequence of increased cigarette smoking.

A Health Economics Inquiry into Regulatory Constraints on the European Tobacco Market

Despite the implementation of significant measures by European countries in recent years, smoking rates in Europe remain persistently high. The European Commission is currently undertaking a comprehensive review of its tobacco regulations. This article aims to address critical inquiries that arise during the amendment of the regulatory framework. We evaluate the effectiveness of existing tobacco control methods and observe a diminishing impact on promoting smoking cessation. Additionally, we explore how individuals of varying genders respond to the regulatory environment. We propose a comprehensive and evidence-based framework for implementing a taxation system in response to the proliferation of emerging products, including e-cigarettes and heated tobacco. This system is designed to align effectively with health policy objectives, providing a strategic approach to curbing tobacco use and promoting public health.

How do users compare the costs between nicotine vaping products and cigarettes? Findings from the 2016-2020 International Tobacco Control United States surveys

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) can potentially help adult tobacco users quit smoking. This study evaluated how adult consumers compare the costs between NVPs and cigarettes.

METHOD

We used data from the US arm of the 2016-2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping (ITC 4CV) surveys to perform a multinomial logit model with two-way fixed effects to measure how perceived cost comparisons are associated with NVP and cigarette taxes, use patterns, NVP device types and individual sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

Higher cigarette taxes are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving NVPs and cigarettes as costing the same for the overall population and among people who exclusively smoke, and a lower likelihood of perceiving NVPs as more expensive among people who exclusively vape, compared with lower cigarette taxes. Pre-filled cartridge and tank users are more likely to perceive NVPs as less expensive than cigarettes, compared with people who use other types of NVPs. The associations between taxes and perceived cost comparison were more pronounced among males, younger and low-income populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cigarette taxes are associated with perceived financial incentives for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) over cigarettes, whereas NVP taxes are not associated with perceived cost comparison between NVPs and cigarettes.

Optimal Taxation of Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes: Principles for Taxing Reduced-Harm Tobacco Products

As the tax base for traditional tobacco excise taxes continues to erode, policymakers have growing interest to expand taxation to novel and reduced-risk tobacco products. Chief among the latter are electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; commonly known as e-cigarettes), although other reduced-risk tobacco products such as heated tobacco and smokeless tobacco products are also being considered for taxation. There are many possible rationales for taxing such products: to raise revenue, to correct for health externalities, to improve public health, to correct for internalities caused by irrationality or misinformation, and to redistribute income. Although each rationale leads to a different objective function, the conclusions regarding relative tax rates are largely the same. The relatively higher price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes (compared to cigarettes) and the lower marginal harms from use imply in each case that taxes on e-cigarettes and other harm-reduced products should be relatively lower, and likely much lower, than those on cigarettes. Additional considerations concerning the policy goal of discouraging use of any tobacco product by youth are discussed as well.

Tobacco Policy and ENDS Policy Influences on Adolescent Vaping Across the U.S. States

INTRODUCTION

Although the use of tobacco has declined among youth, ENDS has the potential to disrupt or reverse these trends. Policies for tobacco and ENDS may have an impact on adolescent ENDS use. The impacts of state-level policies were examined for both tobacco and ENDS indoor use bans, excise taxes, and age-of-purchase laws on past-month adolescent ENDS use from 2013 to 2019.

METHODS

This study used cohort data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study and policy data from the Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights Foundation repository-3 policies for ENDS and 2 policies for tobacco products. Policies included comprehensive indoor vaping/smoking bans, purchase-age restrictions, and excise taxes. Hybrid panel models were estimated in 2022 using data merged from the 2 longitudinal sources on past-month vaping. The analytic sample (observations=26,008) included adolescents aged 12-17 years, yielding a total of 72,684 observations.

RESULTS

The odds of adolescent ENDS use were 21.4% lower when the state had an ENDS purchase-age restriction and 55.0% lower when the state had a comprehensive tobacco smoking ban than in the years when the state did not have the ban.

CONCLUSIONS

During a period of significant growth in ENDS use among U.S. youth, ENDS purchase-age restrictions and smoking bans reduced the odds of past-month vaping among adolescents. Wider implementation of policies may help intervene in youth vaping.

Direct and crowding-out effects of a Hepatitis B vaccination campaign

We evaluate the direct and spillover causal effects of a Hepatitis B (HB) vaccination campaign in French schools on the vaccination adherence of the targeted pupils. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that this campaign created an exogenous shock on vaccination behavior, increasing the HB vaccination rate for children aged 11 and above. At the same time, we show a drop in the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination rate of the targeted pupils and an increase in the parental belief that measles is a benign disease. We interpret these results as a salience effect: the focus on HB vaccination leads to a decrease in the belief that other vaccines are as important. The effect on MMR vaccination was relatively unexpected and may imply a negative externality. Measles is an extremely contagious disease. If the vaccination rate falls, the disease will spread further, raising the question of the net effect of the HB vaccination campaign on the well-being of the population.

Declines in cigarette smoking among US adolescents and young adults: indications of independence from e-cigarette vaping surge

OBJECTIVE

To compare trends in cigarette smoking and nicotine vaping among US population aged 17-18 years and 18-24 years.

METHODS

Regression analyses identified trends in ever and current use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes, using three US representative surveys from 1992 to 2022.

RESULTS

From 1997 to 2020, cigarette smoking prevalence among those aged 18-24 years decreased from 29.1% (95% CI 27.4% to 30.7%) to 5.4% (95% CI 3.9% to 6.9%). The decline was highly correlated with a decline in past 30-day smoking among those aged 17-18 years (1997: 36.8% (95% CI 35.6% to 37.9%; 2022: 3.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.1%). From 2017 to 2019, both ever-vaping and past 30-day nicotine vaping (11.0% to 25.5%) surged among those 17-18 years, however there was no increase among those aged 18-24 years. Regression models demonstrated that the surge in vaping was independent of the decline in cigarette smoking. In the 24 most populous US states, exclusive vaping did increase among those aged 18-24 years, from 1.7% to 4.0% to equivalent to 40% of the decline in cigarette smoking between 2014-15 and 2018-19. Across these US states, the correlation between the changes in vaping and smoking prevalence was low (r=0.11). In the two US states with >US$1/fluid mL tax on e-cigarettes in 2017, cigarette smoking declined faster than the US average.

CONCLUSIONS

Since 1997, a large decline in cigarette smoking occurred in the US population under age 24 years, that was independent of the 2017-19 adolescent surge in past 30-day e-cigarette vaping. Further research is needed to assess whether the 2014-15 to 2018-19 increase in exclusive vaping in those aged 18-24 years is a cohort effect from earlier dependence on e-cigarette vaping as adolescents.

The effect of e-cigarette taxes on prepregnancy and prenatal smoking

E-cigarette taxes are an active area of legislation and have important regulatory implications by proxying e-cigarette accessibility. We examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on prepregnancy and prenatal smoking using the near-universe of births to mothers conceiving between 2013 and 2019 in the United States. Using fixed effect regressions, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase prepregnancy and prenatal smoking. We also find evidence that e-cigarette taxes reduce prepregnancy and 3rd trimester e-cigarette use. Finally, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase news coverage of e-cigarettes and raise perceptions of risk of e-cigarettes.

Youth patterns of use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) waves 4-5.5

INTRODUCTION

Youth use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is a continuing concern, making it important to assess evolving patterns, especially as non-tobacco, non-menthol (NTM) flavors were withdrawn for pod-based (but not disposable) ENDS in February 2020.

METHODS

Trends in past-30-day (P30D) ENDS use and smoking prevalence, usual device type, flavor (tobacco, mint/menthol, or fruit/sweet/other), and regular/last-used brand in PATH Waves 4 (2017), 4.5 (2018), 5 (2019), and 5.5 (2020) were examined. Shifts between 2019 and 2020 in flavor use for pods and disposables were examined.

RESULTS

P30D ENDS use peaked in 2019 at 8.6 % of all youth, subsequently declining by nearly half to 4.5 % in 2020. Meanwhile, P30D cigarette smoking declined to an all-time low (1.3 %) in 2020. Within this overall decline, consumption shifted to disposable ENDS, which increased nearly 10-fold (from 5.0 % to 49.2 % of P30D ENDS users). Relatedly, use of fruit/sweet/other flavors remained similar overall between 2019 and 2020 (approximately 75-80 % of P30D ENDS users), but the use of these flavors became concentrated in disposable ENDS in 2020 (a 12-fold increase from 4.4 % to 58.4 % of fruit/sweet/other-flavor users).

CONCLUSIONS

PATH results show similar trends to other US national surveys in youth ENDS trends. The removal of non-tobacco, non-menthol flavors in pod-based ENDS (while remaining available in disposables) has likely driven youth towards disposable devices, resulting in continued high use of fruit/sweet/other flavors, which are now predominant in users of disposable ENDS. Wave 5.5 is uninformative regarding brand use because common disposable brands were not queried.

Have recreational marijuana laws undermined public health progress on adult tobacco use?

Public health experts caution that legalization of recreational marijuana may normalize smoking and undermine the decades-long achievements of tobacco control policy. However, very little is known about the impact of recreational marijuana laws (RMLs) on adult tobacco use. Using newly available data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) and dynamic difference-in-differences and discrete-time hazard approaches, we find that RML adoption increases prior-month marijuana use among adults ages 18-and-older by 2-percentage-points, driven by an increase in marijuana initiation among prior non-users. However, this increase in adult marijuana use does not extend to tobacco use. Rather, we find that RML adoption is associated with a lagged reduction in electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use, consistent with the hypothesis that ENDS and marijuana are substitutes. Moreover, auxiliary analyses from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) show that RML adoption is associated with a reduction in adult cigarette smoking. We conclude that RMLs may generate tobacco-related health benefits.