aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

Applicability of Risk Scores to an Indian Cohort of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Image 1.

PNPLA3 risk allele is associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma but not decompensation in compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The PNPLA3-rs738409-G, TM6SF2-rs58542926-T, and HSD17B13-rs6834314-A polymorphisms have been associated with cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and HCC. However, whether they remain associated with HCC and decompensation in people who already have cirrhosis remains unclear, which limits the clinical utility of genetics in risk stratification as HCC is uncommon in the absence of cirrhosis. We aimed to characterize the effects of PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and HSD17B13 genotype on hepatic decompensation, HCC, and liver-related mortality or liver transplant in patients with baseline compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center retrospective study of patients in the Michigan Genomics Initiative who underwent genotyping. The primary predictors were PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and HSD17B13 genotypes. Primary outcomes were either hepatic decompensation, HCC, or liver-related mortality/transplant. We conducted competing risk Fine-Gray analyses on our cohort.

RESULTS

We identified 732 patients with baseline compensated cirrhosis. During follow-up, 50% of patients developed decompensation, 13% developed HCC, 24% underwent liver transplant, and 27% died. PNPLA3-rs738409-G genotype was associated with risk of incident HCC: adjusted subhazard hazard ratio 2.42 (1.40-4.17), p=0.0015 for PNPLA3-rs738409-GG vs. PNPLA3-rs738409-CC genotype. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was higher in PNPLA3-rs738409-GG carriers than PNPLA3-rs738409-CC/-CG carriers: 15.6% (9.0%-24.0%) vs. 7.4% (5.2%-10.0%), p<0.001. PNPLA3 genotype was not associated with decompensation or the combined outcome of liver-related mortality or liver transplant. TM6SF2 and HSD17B13 genotypes were not associated with decompensation or HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The PNPLA3-rs738409-G allele is associated with an increased risk of HCC among patients with baseline compensated cirrhosis. People with cirrhosis and PNPLA3-rs738409-GG genotype may warrant more intensive HCC surveillance.

Interim analysis of the PARADISE study: Benefits of add-on peginterferon-α in NA-treated patients with CHB

This study aimed to investigate whether peginterferon-α (IFN) add-on nucleos(t)ide analogs(NAs) can further reduce hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) risk compared with NAs monotherapy in NA-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB). In this multi-center randomized controlled trial "PARADISE study" (NCT05671315), CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC after more than 24-week NAs pretreatment were recruited, randomized to two groups at a ratio of 1:2 and followed up for 240 weeks. NAs group maintained NAs monotherapy, while IFN + NAs group received IFN add-on NAs therapy for 48 weeks, then switched to NAs monotherapy. Totally, 196 patients were included in interim analysis (NAs group 68, IFN + NAs group 128). The 96-week cumulative HCC incidence was lower in IFN + NAs group than NAs group (0% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.05). Compared with NAs group, IFN + NAs group had significantly higher rates of HBsAg loss at week 48 and 96 (22.7% vs. 0%; 16.7% vs. 0%, both p < 0.05). A new scoring system was established to predict HBsAg decline >2log10 IU/ml, HBsAg <10 IU/ml or HBsAg loss at the end of 48-week IFN treatment. The area under ROC curve was 0.914, 0.922 or 0.905 in the original cohort (n = 128) and 0.896, 0.896 or 0.864 in the external validation cohort (n = 162) for the aforementioned three outcomes, respectively. IFN add-on NAs therapy may suggest the dual benefits of reducing HCC development and facilitating HBsAg loss among NA-treated CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC. The new scoring system helps to make the most of IFN treatment for a higher cost-effectiveness in healthcare.

Natural History of Indeterminate Liver Nodules in Patients With Advanced Liver Disease: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Indeterminate liver nodules (ILNs) are frequently encountered on diagnostic imaging after positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance results, but their natural history remains unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with ≥1 newly detected LI-RADS 3 (LR-3) lesion ≥1 cm or LI-RADS 4 (LR-4) lesion of any size (per LI-RADS v2018) between January 2018 and December 2019. Patients were followed with repeat imaging at each site per institutional standard of care. Multivariable Fine-Gray models were used to evaluate associations between potential risk factors and patient-level time-to-HCC diagnosis, with death and liver transplantation as competing risks.

RESULTS

Of 307 patients with ILNs, 208 had LR-3 lesions, 83 had LR-4 lesions, and 16 had both LR-3 and LR-4 lesions. HCC incidence rates for patients with LR-3 and LR-4 lesions were 110 (95% CI 70-150) and 420 (95% CI 310-560) per 1,000 person-year, respectively. In multivariable analysis, incident HCC among patients with LR-3 lesions was associated with older age, thrombocytopenia (platelet count ≤150 ×10 9 /L), and elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein levels. Among those with LR-4 lesions, incident HCC was associated with a maximum lesion diameter >1 cm. Although most patients had follow-up computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, 13.7% had no follow-up imaging and another 14.3% had follow-up ultrasound only.

DISCUSSION

ILNs have a high but variable risk of HCC, with 4-fold higher risk in patients with LR-4 lesions than those with LR-3 lesions, highlighting a need for accurate risk stratification tools and close follow-up in this population.

Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common.

METHODS

A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score.

RESULTS

During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability.

CONCLUSION

Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.

Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use.

METHOD

Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.

The aMAP score predicts long-term outcomes after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-institutional analysis

BACKGROUND

The aMAP score is a proposed model to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among high-risk patients with chronic hepatitis. The role of the aMAP score to predict long-term survival among patients following resection of HCC has not been determined.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection for HCC between 2000 and 2020 were identified using a multi-institutional database. The impact of the aMAP score on long-term outcomes following HCC resection was assessed.

RESULTS

Among 1377 patients undergoing resection for HCC, a total of 972 (70.6 %) patients had a low aMAP score (≤63), whereas 405 (29.4 %) individuals had a high aMAP score (≥64). aMAP score was associated with 5-year OS in the entire cohort (low vs high aMAP score:66.5 % vs. 54.3 %, p < 0.001). aMAP score predicted 5-year OS following resection among patients with HBV-HCC (low vs. high aMAP:68.8 % vs. 55.6 %, p = 0.01) and NASH/other-HCC (64.7 % vs. 53.7, p = 0.04). aMAP score could sub-stratify 5-year OS among patients undergoing HCC resection within (low vs. high aMAP:81.5 % vs. 67.4 %, p < 0.001) and beyond (55.9 % vs. 38.8 %, p < 0.001) Milan criteria.

DISCUSSION

The aMAP score predicted postoperative outcomes following resection of HCC within and beyond Milan criteria. Apart from a surveillance tool, the aMAP score can also be used as a prognostic tool among patients undergoing resection of HCC.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs).

METHODS

MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

Machine-learning model comprising five clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement can accurately identify MASLD-related liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

aMAP score, as a hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, is proven to be associated with the degree of chronic hepatitis B-related liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the ability of aMAP score for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD)-related fibrosis diagnosis and establish a machine-learning (ML) model to improve the diagnostic performance.

METHODS

A total of 946 biopsy-proved MASLD patients from China and the United States were included in the analysis. The aMAP score, demographic/clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were included in seven ML algorithms to build fibrosis diagnostic models in the training set (N = 703). The performance of ML models was evaluated in the external validation set (N = 125).

RESULTS

The AUROCs of aMAP versus fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio (APRI) in cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were (0.850 vs. 0.857 [P = 0.734], 0.735 [P = 0.001]) and (0.759 vs. 0.795 [P = 0.027], 0.709 [P = 0.049]). When using dual cut-off values, aMAP had a smaller uncertainty area and higher accuracy (26.9%, 86.6%) than FIB-4 (37.3%, 85.0%) and APRI (59.0%, 77.3%) in cirrhosis diagnosis. The seven ML models performed satisfactorily in most cases. In the validation set, the ML model comprising LSM and 5 indices (including age, sex, platelets, albumin and total bilirubin used in aMAP calculator), built by logistic regression algorithm (called LSM-plus model), exhibited excellent performance. In cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis detection, the LSM-plus model had higher accuracy (96.8%, 91.2%) than LSM alone (86.4%, 67.2%) and Agile score (76.0%, 83.2%), respectively. Additionally, the LSM-plus model also displayed high specificity (cirrhosis: 98.3%; advanced fibrosis: 92.6%) with satisfactory AUROC (0.932, 0.875, respectively) and sensitivity (88.9%, 82.4%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The aMAP score is capable of diagnosing MASLD-related fibrosis. The LSM-plus model could accurately identify MASLD-related cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis.

Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy

No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.

Serum biomarker signature is predictive of the risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers have been associated with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) risk in phases I and II biomarker studies. We developed and internally validated a robust metabolic biomarker panel predictive of HCC in a longitudinal phase III study.

METHODS

We used data and banked serum from a prospective cohort of 2266 adult patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC (n=126). We custom designed a FirePlex immunoassay to measure baseline serum levels of 39 biomarkers and established a set of biomarkers with the highest discriminatory ability for HCC. We performed bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance using C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We quantified the incremental predictive value of the biomarker panel when added to previously validated clinical models.

RESULTS

We identified a nine-biomarker panel (P9) with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.67), including insulin growth factor-1, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor β1, adipsin, fetuin-A, interleukin-1 β, macrophage stimulating protein α chain, serum amyloid A and TNF-α. Adding P9 to our clinical model with 10 factors including AFP improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 4.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Adding P9 to aMAP score improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 14.2% and 7.6%, respectively. Adding AFP L-3 or DCP did not change the predictive ability of the P9 model.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a panel of nine serum biomarkers that is independently associated with developing HCC in cirrhosis and that improved the predictive ability of risk stratification models containing clinical factors.

The Age-Male-Albumin-Bilirubin-Platelets (aMAP) Risk Score Predicts Liver Metastasis Following Surgery for Breast Cancer in Chinese Population: A Retrospective Study

Objective

The current study is conducted to investigate the potential prognostic value of the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score in breast cancer patients with liver metastasis after surgery.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of 178 breast cancer patients who developed liver metastasis after surgery. These patients were treated and followed up from 2000 to 2018 at our hospital. The aMAP risk score was estimated in accordance with the following formula: . The optimal cutoff value of the aMAP was evaluated via X-tile. Kaplan-Meier, Log-rank and Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to determine the clinical influence of the aMAP score on the survival outcomes. The nomogram models were established by multivariate analyses. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate the estimated performance of the nomogram models.

Results

A total of 178 breast cancer patients were divided into low aMAP score group (<47.6) and high aMAP score group (≥47.6) via X-tile plots. The aMAP score was a potential prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. The median disease free survival (p=0.0013) and overall survival (p=0.0003) in low aMAP score group were longer than in high aMAP score group. The nomograms were constructed to predict the DFS with a C-index of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.673-0.771), and the OS with a C-index of 0.708 (95% CI, 0.661-0.755). The aMAP-based nomograms had good predictive performance.

Conclusion

The aMAP score is a potential prognostic factor in breast cancer with liver metastasis after surgery. The aMAP score-based nomograms were conducive to discriminate patients at high risks of liver metastasis and develop adjuvant treatment and prevention strategies.

Developments and current status of cell-free DNA in the early detection and management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Nowadays, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still a major threat to human health globally, with a disappointing prognosis. Regular monitoring of patients at high risk, utilizing abdominal ultrasonography combined with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) serum analysis, enables the early detection of potentially treatable tumors. However, the approach has limitations due to its lack of sensitivity. Meanwhile, the current standard procedure for obtaining a tumor biopsy in cases of HCC is invasive and lacks the ability to assess the dynamic progression of cancer or account for tumor heterogeneity. Hence, there is a pressing need to develop non-invasive, highly sensitive biomarkers for HCC which can improve the accuracy of early diagnosis, assess treatment response and accurately predict the prognosis. In contrast to the conventional method of tissue biopsy, liquid biopsy offers a non-invasive approach that can be readily repeated. As a liquid biopsy approach, the analysis of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) offers real-time insights that can accurately portray the tumor burden and provide a comprehensive depiction of the genetic profile associated with HCC. In this review, we present a comprehensive summary of the recent research findings pertaining to the significance and potential practicality of cfDNA analysis in the early detection and effective management of HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk decreases as time accrues following hepatitis C virus eradication

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) decreases over time following hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication.

AIM

To determine if patients who have accrued longer time since sustained virologic response (SVR) have a lower risk of HCC than those with less time since SVR METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all HCV-infected Veterans Affairs patients who achieved SVR before 1 January 2018 and remained alive without a diagnosis of HCC as of 1 January 2019 (n = 75,965). We ascertained their baseline characteristics as of 1 January 2019 (time zero), including time accrued since SVR and followed them for the subsequent 12 months for incident HCC. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the association between time since SVR and HCC risk after adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, sex, diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, alcohol use, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Fibrosis-4 score, HCV genotype, hepatitis B virus co-infection and HIV co-infection.

RESULTS

96.0% were male; mean age was 64.6  years. Among those with cirrhosis (n = 19,678, 25.9%), compared to patients who had accrued only ≥1 to 2 years since SVR (HCC incidence 2.71/100 person-years), those who had accrued >2 to 4 years (2.11/100 person-years, aHR 0.80, 95% CI 0.63-1.01) and >4 to 6 years (1.65/100 person-years, aHR 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.90) had progressively lower HCC risk. However, HCC risk appeared to plateau for those with >6 years since SVR (1.68/100 person-years, aHR 0.70, 95% CI 0.46-1.07). Among those without cirrhosis, HCC risk was 0.23-0.27/100 person-years without a significant association between time since SVR and HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection, HCC risk declined progressively up to 6 years post-SVR-although it remained well above thresholds that warrant screening. This suggests that time since SVR can inform HCC surveillance strategies in patients with cured HCV infection and can be incorporated into HCC risk prediction models.

Direct-acting antivirals failed to reduce the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus associated cirrhosis: A real-world study

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) revolutionized the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated disease achieving high rates of sustained virological response (SVR). However, whether DAAs can reduce the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis who are at high risk have not been concluded.

AIM

To investigate the effect of DAAs on the occurrence of HCC in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis after achieving SVR.

METHODS

Of 427 inpatients with HCV-associated cirrhosis were enrolled in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from January 2014 to April 2020. 118 patients weren't received antiviral treatment with any reasons named non-antiviral treatment group, and 236 patients obtained from the 309 DAAs treatment patients according to the propensity score matching named DAAs treatment group. Demographic information and laboratory data were collected from baseline and the following up. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-Rank test were used to compare the incidence and cumulative incidence of HCC between the two groups. Cox proportional risk regression was used to re-evaluate the risk factors for HCC.

RESULTS

HCC incidence was 4.68/100PY (95%CI, 3.09-6.81) in the DAAs treatment group, while it was 3.00/100PY (95%CI, 1.50-5.37) in the non-antiviral treatment group, and the relative risk was 1.82 (95%CI, 0.93-3.53, P > 0.05). The incidence of HCC at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 3.39%, 6.36%, 8.47% and 10.17% in the DAAs treatment group, and it was 0%, 0%, 3.39% and 9.32% in the non-antiviral treatment group, respectively. Age > 58 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.089; 95%CI, 1.033-1.147; P = 0.002] and liver stiffness measurement > 27.85 kPa (HR = 1.043; 95%CI, 1.022-1.065; P = 0.000) were risk factors for HCC in all patients (n = 427), and DAAs treatment didn't show protective efficacy.

CONCLUSION

DAAs treatment seems failed to reduce the incidence of HCC occurrence in HCV-associated cirrhosis in 48 months, and even increased the incidence of HCC in 36 months.

The Association Between the Albumin-Bilirubin Score and Contrast-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Undergoing Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is considered an effective and convenient scoring system for assessing liver function. We hypothesized that the ALBI score was predictive of contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) and long-term mortality in patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We retrospectively observed 5629 patients undergoing elective PCI. Contrast-associated acute kidney injury is defined as a 50% or 0.3 mg/dl increase in baseline serum creatinine levels within 48 h of contrast exposure. The incidence of CA-AKI was 6.2% (n = 350). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, multivariate analysis showed that the ALBI score was an independent predictor of CA-AKI (P = .002). A restricted cubic spline analysis confirmed approximately linear relationships between the ALBI score and risks of CA-AKI. Furthermore, at a median follow-up of 2.8 years, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the ALBI score was an independent risk factor for long-term mortality (P < .001). The ALBI score was closely related to the occurrence of CA-AKI and long-term mortality in patients who underwent elective PCI. This score might be useful for risk stratification in high-risk patient groups to predict CA-AKI.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background/Aims

With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR.

Results

The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC.

Conclusions

aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.

The challenges and potential in developing microRNA associated with regeneration as biomarkers to improve prognostication for liver failure syndromes and hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Determining the need for liver transplantation remains critical in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver failure syndromes (including acute liver failure and decompensated cirrhosis states). Conventional prognostic models utilize biomarkers of liver and non-liver failure and have limitations in their application. Novel biomarkers which predict regeneration may fulfil this niche. microRNA are implicated in health and disease and are present in abundance in the circulation. Despite this, they have not translated into mainstream clinical biomarkers.

AREAS COVERED

We will discuss current challenges in the prognostication of patients with liver failure syndromes as well as for patients with HCC. We will discuss biomarkers implicated with liver regeneration. We then provide an overview of the challenges in developing microRNA into clinically tractable biomarkers. Finally, we will provide a scoping review of microRNA which may have potential as prognostic biomarkers in liver failure syndromes and HCC.

EXPERT OPINION

Novel biomarkers are needed to improve prognostic models in liver failure syndromes and HCC. Biomarkers associated with liver regeneration are currently lacking and may fulfil this niche. microRNA have the potential to be developed into clinically tractable biomarkers but a consensus on standardizing methodology and reporting is required prior to large-scale studies.

SASLT guidelines: Update in treatment of hepatitis C virus infection, 2024

ABSTRACT

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been a major global health concern, with a significant impact on public health. In recent years, there have been remarkable advancements in our understanding of HCV and the development of novel therapeutic agents. The Saudi Society for the Study of Liver Disease and Transplantation formed a working group to develop HCV practice guidelines in Saudi Arabia. The methodology used to create these guidelines involved a comprehensive review of available evidence, local data, and major international practice guidelines regarding HCV management. This updated guideline encompasses critical aspects of HCV care, including screening and diagnosis, assessing the severity of liver disease, and treatment strategies. The aim of this updated guideline is to assist healthcare providers in the management of HCV in Saudi Arabia. It summarizes the latest local studies on HCV epidemiology, significant changes in virus prevalence, and the importance of universal screening, particularly among high-risk populations. Moreover, it discusses the promising potential for HCV elimination as a public health threat by 2030, driven by effective treatment and comprehensive prevention strategies. This guideline also highlights evolving recommendations for advancing disease management, including the treatment of HCV patients with decompensated cirrhosis, treatment of those who have previously failed treatment with the newer medications, management in the context of liver transplantation and hepatocellular carcinoma, and treatment for special populations.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Proteomics-driven noninvasive screening of circulating serum protein panels for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) lacks highly sensitive and specific protein biomarkers. Here, we describe a staged mass spectrometry (MS)-based discovery-verification-validation proteomics workflow to explore serum proteomic biomarkers for HCC early diagnosis in 1002 individuals. Machine learning model determined as P4 panel (HABP2, CD163, AFP and PIVKA-II) clearly distinguish HCC from liver cirrhosis (LC, AUC 0.979, sensitivity 0.925, specificity 0.915) and healthy individuals (HC, AUC 0.992, sensitivity 0.975, specificity 1.000) in an independent validation cohort, outperforming existing clinical prediction strategies. Furthermore, the P4 panel can accurately predict LC to HCC conversion (AUC 0.890, sensitivity 0.909, specificity 0.877) with predicting HCC at a median of 11.4 months prior to imaging in prospective external validation cohorts (No.: Keshen 2018_005_02 and NCT03588442). These results suggest that proteomics-driven serum biomarker discovery provides a valuable reference for the liquid biopsy, and has great potential to improve early diagnosis of HCC.

eALT-F: A New Non-Invasive Staging Method to Identify Medium to High-Risk Patients with HCC from Ultra-High HBV Viral Load Population - China, 2010-2023

Background

The objective of this study was to examine the clinical characteristics of individuals with ultra-high hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load and develop a novel staging method for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) that can more effectively identify patients with medium to high hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk.

Methods

A total of 2,118 patients with HBV DNA >1×107 IU/mL who visited Peking University People's Hospital between January 2010 and March 2023 were enrolled retrospectively. Clinical data from the first visit were obtained and analyzed. The traditional phases and new 'eALT-F' stages were compared to evaluate the risk of HCC.

Results

In the overall patients, more than one-third of the patients were under 30 years old. Additionally, a small proportion of older people (>60 years) also had ultra-high HBV viral load (4.3%). 9.1% and 6.7% of individuals with ultra-high HBV viral load showed FIB-4>3.25 and aMAP≥50, respectively. In the traditional stages of CHB, which are based on HBeAg and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) [the upper limit of normal (ULN) ALT level at 40 IU/L for both men and women], regardless of phase, a certain proportion of patients were at risk of developing HCC (4.1%, 6.4%, 25.0%, and 20.3%). However, in the new 'eALT-F' stages, which are based on HBeAg, ALT (the ULN of ALT level at 30 IU/L for men and 19 IU/L for women), and/or FIB-4 levels (>1.45), aMAP≥50 was only observed in chronic hepatitis patients with positive or negative HBeAg (6.4% and 22.1%, respectively).

Conclusions

The 'eALT-F' staging method, based on HBeAg, ALT (males: the ULN of ALT was 30 IU/L, females: 19 IU/L) and/or FIB-4 levels, was more effective in identifying medium to high-risk patients with HCC from patients with ultra-high HBV viral load than the traditional staging methods.

Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virological response in advanced hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Life-long hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended after sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with advanced hepatitis C. Since the identification of patients who could be safely discontinued for surveillance is essential, we aimed to identify subsets of patients with low-risk HCC.

METHODS

491 patients with advanced and compensated fibrosis (≥F3) were prospectively followed after achieving SVR with interferon-free therapies. Clinical-biological parameters and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were performed before starting treatment (ST) and at SVR, and HCC surveillance was carried out.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 49.8 months, 29 (5.9%) patients developed HCC [incidence rate: 1.6/100 patient-years (PYs)]. Two predictive models based on LSM (Model-A) or FIB-4 score (Model-B) were proposed. Only SVR parameters were included in the models, because they showed a higher accuracy for predicting HCC than ST measurements. Variables independently associated with HCC were LSM (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), age (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08) and albumin levels (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) in Model-A, and FIB-4 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.37) and albumin (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.97) in model-B. Both models allow HCC risk stratification, identifying low-risk groups with an HCC incidence rate of 0.16/100 and 0.25/100 PYs, respectively. An overall increased hazard of HCC was observed over time.

CONCLUSION

Simple models based on non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis, LSM or FIB-4, together with age and albumin levels at SVR permit to identify subsets of patients with HCC risk clearly <1%/year, for whom HCC surveillance might not be cost-effective.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021.

RESULTS

We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration.

CONCLUSION

The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Distinct on-treatment HCC risks associated with different decompensation events in HBV patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Long-term treatment with nucleoside analog (NA) reduces the risks for decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC). However, whether antiviral therapy has differential efficacy on the risks for decompensation and HCC is insufficiently elucidated. Therefore, we investigated the disease state transition, focusing on decompensation event-specific HCC risk in NA-treated CHB patients with CC.

METHODS

We prospectively followed up on 1163 NA-treated CHB patients with CC every six months for up to seven years. The cumulative incidence and risk of HCC were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and competing risk model. The multistate model was used to estimate the transition probabilities to HCC from different disease states.

RESULTS

HCC predominated the first liver-related events, with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 9.0%, followed by decompensation (8.3%, including 7.9% nonbleeding decompensation and 2.4% variceal bleeding) and 0.2% death. The decompensation stage had a significantly higher 5-year cumulative HCC incidence than the CC stage (27.6% vs. 9.1%; HR = 2.42, 95% CI: 1.24, 4.71). Furthermore, nonbleeding decompensation events had a higher 5-year transition probability to HCC than bleeding (27.6% vs. 15.8%; HR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.41, 4.17). Viral suppression modified the on-treatment transition risk to HCC (1-year: HR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.73; 3-year: HR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.38). An online calculator was developed to facilitate HCC risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

In NA-treated CHB patients with compensated cirrhosis, the risk was higher for HCC than for decompensation; more importantly, different decompensation events conferred distinct HCC risks.

Non-Invasive Prediction Scores for Hepatitis B Virus- and Hepatitis D Virus-Infected Patients-A Cohort from the North-Eastern Part of Romania

Approximately 62-72 million people are infected worldwide with HDV. Patients with chronic hepatitis D (CHD) have a higher risk of developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and an increased mortality rate compared to those with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The stage of liver fibrosis or the risk of developing HCC can also be estimated by non-invasive scores, which are cost effective, easier to apply, and reproducible. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the predictive value of four non-invasive scores (FIB-4, APRI, AST/ALT ratio, and aMAP) in assessing severe fibrosis/cirrhosis and the presence of HCC in patients with HBV/HDV superinfection, as compared with HBV mono-infection. Our 8-year retrospective analysis revealed that HDV-infected patients had a 2-3 times higher risk of developing cirrhosis and HCC than HBV-mono-infected subjects. High AST and ALT baseline levels qualified as independent predictors for cirrhosis development in both groups. The following fibrosis scores, FIB-4, APRI score, and AAR, were significantly increased when cirrhosis was present at baseline and showed a good prediction for developing cirrhosis in the CHD group. The aMAP score, a risk predictor for HCC, showed significantly higher values in patients with HCC in both groups. Nonetheless, non-invasive scores should always be considered for monitoring patients with CHB and CHD, but only when associated with other diagnosis methods.

Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B (version 2022)

To facilitate the achieving of the goal of "eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health threat by 2030" set by the World Health Organization, the Chinese Society of Hepatology together with the Chinese Society of Infectious Diseases (both are branches of the Chinese Medical Association) organized a panel of experts and updated the guidelines for prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B in China (version 2022). With the support of available evidence, this revision of the guidelines focuses on active prevention, large scale testing, and expansion of therapeutic indication of chronic hepatitis B with the aim of reducing the hepatitis B related disease burden.

Accurate prediction of HCC risk after SVR in patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis based on longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

Most existing predictive models of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) are built on data collected at baseline and therefore have limited accuracy. The current study aimed to construct an accurate predictive model incorporating longitudinal data using a novel modeling strategy. The predictive performance of the longitudinal model was also compared with a baseline model.

METHODS

A total of 400 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) were enrolled in the study. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Informative features were extracted from the longitudinal variables and then put into the random survival forest (RSF) to develop the longitudinal model. A baseline model including the same variables was built for comparison.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of approximately 5 years, 25 patients (8.9%) in the training set and 11 patients (9.2%) in the validation set developed HCC. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUROC) for the longitudinal model were 0.9507 (0.8838-0.9997), 0.8767 (0.6972,0.9918), and 0.8307 (0.6941,0.9993) for 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction, respectively. The brier scores of the longitudinal model were also relatively low for the 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction (0.0283, 0.0561, and 0.0501, respectively). In contrast, the baseline model only achieved mediocre AUROCs of around 0.6 (0.6113, 0.6213, and 0.6480, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our longitudinal model yielded accurate predictions of HCC risk in patients with HCV-relate cirrhosis, outperforming the baseline model. Our model can provide patients with valuable prognosis information and guide the intensity of surveillance in clinical practice.

Serum protein biomarkers for HCC risk prediction in HIV/HBV co-infected people: a clinical proteomic study using mass spectrometry

Background

HBV coinfection is frequent in people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction methods for HCC in patients with HBV monoinfection have been proposed, suitable biomarkers for early diagnosis of HCC in PLWH remain uncommon.

Methods

Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was used to examine serum protein alterations in HCC and non-HCC patients with HIV and HBV co-infection. Gene Ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and Disease Ontology (DO) enrichment analysis were performed on the differentially expressed proteins (DEPs). The risk prediction model was created using five-cross-validation and LASSO regression to filter core DEPs.

Results

A total of 124 DEPs were discovered, with 95 proteins up-regulated and 29 proteins down-regulated. Extracellular matrix organization and membrane component were the DEPs that were most abundant in the categories of biological processes (BP) and cellular components (CC). Proteoglycans in cancer were one of the top three DEPs primarily enriched in the KEGG pathway, and 60.0% of DEPs were linked to various neoplasms in terms of DO enrichment. Eleven proteins, including GAPR1, PLTP, CLASP2, IGHV1-69D, IGLV5-45, A2M, VNN1, KLK11, ANPEP, DPP4 and HYI, were chosen as the core DEPs, and a nomogram was created to predict HCC risk.

Conclusion

In HIV/HBV patients with HCC, several differential proteins can be detected in plasma by mass spectrometry, which can be used as screening markers for early diagnosis and risk prediction of HCC. Monitoring protease expression differences can help in the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC.

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis

PURPOSE

It was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies.

METHODS

The present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012. Patients were prospectively followed-up until January 1, 2018. We used a competing risk model and the Fine-Gray test to develop and validate the prediction model and to plot a nomogram based on the model established.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 202 (21.5%) patients developed HCC, with a 5-year incidence of 19.0% (corrected for competing risk model). Based on the competing risk regression method, we built a prediction model including age, gender, etiology, lymphocyte, and A/G ratio. Three groups with different risks were generated on account of tertiles of the 5-year risk predicted by the model. The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidences of HCC were 2.0%, 20.8%, and 42.3% in high-risk group, 0.9%, 10.1%, and 17.7% in medium-risk group, and 0%, 2.0%, 8.5% in low-risk group (P < 0.001). The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with all-cause cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The model could make an individual prediction of cancer occurrence and stratify patients based on predicted risk, regardless of the causes of cirrhosis.

Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L).

AIMS

To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement.

METHODS

We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events.

RESULTS

We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.

aMAP Score and Its Combination With Liver Stiffness Measurement Accurately Assess Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) are unreliable to estimate regression of fibrosis during antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score (aMAP), as an accurate hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, may reflect the liver fibrosis stage. Here, we aimed to evaluate the performance of aMAP for diagnosing liver fibrosis in CHB patients with or without treatment.

METHODS

A total of 2053 patients from 2 real-world cohorts and 2 multicentric randomized controlled trials in China were enrolled, among which 2053 CHB patients were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 889 CHB patients with paired liver biopsies before and after 72 or 104 weeks of treatment were included in the longitudinal analysis.

RESULTS

In the cross-sectional analysis, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were 0.788 and 0.757, which were comparable with or significantly higher than those of the fibrosis index based on 4 factors and the aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio. The stepwise approach using aMAP and LSM further improved performance in detecting cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis with the smallest uncertainty area (29.7% and 46.2%, respectively) and high accuracy (82.3% and 79.8%, respectively). In the longitudinal analysis, we established a novel model (aMAP-LSM model) by calculating aMAP and LSM results before and after treatment, which had satisfactory performance in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis after treatment (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.839 and 0.840, respectively), especially for those with a significant decrease in LSM after treatment (vs LSM alone, 0.828 vs 0.748; P < .001 [cirrhosis]; 0.825 vs 0.750; P < .001 [advanced fibrosis]).

CONCLUSIONS

The aMAP score is a promising noninvasive tool for diagnosing fibrosis in CHB patients. The aMAP-LSM model could accurately estimate fibrosis stage for treated CHB patients.

Association Between the Presence of Metabolic Comorbidities and Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and (liver-related) mortality. In addition to hepatitis B-related factors, metabolic comorbidities may contribute to the progression of fibrosis. Therefore, we studied the association between metabolic comorbidities and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CHB patients attending the Erasmus MC University Medical Center (Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy at the Toronto General Hospital (Toronto, Canada). The presence of metabolic comorbidities (ie, overweight, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia) was assessed based on chart review. The primary end point was liver-related events, defined as the first composite of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or liver-related mortality.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1850 patients, of whom 926 (50.1%) were overweight, 161 (8.7%) had hypertension, 116 (6.3%) had dyslipidemia, and 82 (4.4%) had diabetes. During a median follow-up period of 7.3 years (interquartile range, 2.9-11.5 y), a total of 111 first events were recorded. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 8.3; 95% CI, 5.5-12.7), diabetes (HR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.2-9.1), dyslipidemia (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.8), and overweight (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5) were associated with an increased risk for liver-related events. The presence of multiple comorbidities further increased the risk. Findings were consistent for patients with and without cirrhosis, among noncirrhotic hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients with hepatitis B virus DNA less than 2000 IU/mL and in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, hepatitis B e antigen status, hepatitis B virus DNA, use of antiviral therapy, and the presence of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolic comorbidities in CHB patients are associated with an increased risk for liver-related events, with the highest risk observed in patients with multiple comorbidities. Findings were consistent in various clinically relevant subgroups, underscoring the need for thorough metabolic assessment in patients with CHB.

Statistical perspectives on using hepatocellular carcinoma risk models to inform surveillance decisions

More than 50,000 people are diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) every year in Europe. Many cases are known to specialist liver centres years before they present with HCC. Despite this, HCC is usually detected at a late stage, when prognosis is very poor. For more than two decades, clinical guidelines have recommended uniform surveillance for all patients with cirrhosis. However, studies continue to show that this broad-based approach is inefficient and poorly implemented in practice. A "personalised" approach, where the surveillance regimen is customised to the needs of the patient, is gaining growing support in the clinical community. The cornerstone of personalised surveillance is the HCC risk model - a mathematical equation predicting a patient's individualised probability of developing HCC within a specific time window. However, although numerous risk models have now been published, few are being used in routine care to inform HCC surveillance decisions. In this article, we discuss methodological issues stymieing the use of HCC risk models in routine practice - highlighting biases, evidence gaps and misconceptions that future research must address.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p  < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Noninvasive Fibrosis Assessment in Chronic Hepatitis C Infection: An Update

Liver biopsy is historically the gold standard for liver fibrosis assessment of chronic hepatitis C patients. However, with the introduction and validation of noninvasive tests (NITs) to evaluate advanced fibrosis, and the direct-acting antiviral agents for treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV), the role of NITs have become even more complex. There is now need for longitudinal monitoring and elucidation of cutoff values for prediction of liver-related complication after sustained virological response. The aim of this report is to provide a critical overview of the various NITs available for the assessment of liver fibrosis in HCV patients.

Management of dialysis patients with hepatitis C virus in the era of direct-acting antiviral therapy

The clinical use of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has dramatically changed management of patients with HCV liver disease since 2014; this is also true for patients undergoing dialysis. Due to the high tolerability and antiviral efficacy of anti-HCV therapy, most dialysis patients with HCV infection should currently be candidates for this treatment. Many patients with HCV antibodies no longer have HCV infection, and it is difficult to identify patients with actual HCV infection based only on HCV antibody assays. Despite the high rate of successful HCV eradication, the risk of liver-related events such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the major complication of HCV infection, persists even after HCV cure, and patients at risk of HCC should undergo continuous HCC surveillance. Finally, the rarity of HCV reinfection and the survival benefit of HCV eradication in dialysis patients should be explored in further studies.

Diabetes Mellitus Impacts on the Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We examined whether changing clinical characteristics and presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) impact the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores.

METHODS

Adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on ≥6 months of entecavir/tenofovir treatment between January 2005 and March 2020 were identified using a territory-wide electronic database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by antidiabetic agents, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and aMAP scores were assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and compared with CAMD and REAL-B scores with DM as a component.

RESULTS

Of 48,706 patients, 2792, 11,563, 15,471, and 18,880 started entecavir/tenofovir treatment between 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2020, respectively; DM prevalence rose from 15.5% in 2005-2008 to 24.3% in 2017-2020. AUROCs were comparable across the 4 periods in the 5 HCC risk scores (AUROCs ranged between 0.75 and 0.81). At a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 1512 non-diabetic (4.0%) and 645 (6.2%) diabetic patients developed HCC. AUROCs of all 5 scores were lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetic patients (AUROCs ranged between 0.67-0.71 vs 0.78-0.82; all P < .001). REAL-B score achieved an AUROC of 0.71 in diabetic and 0.82 in non-diabetic patients. Both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the low-risk group by REAL-B score had a low HCC incidence below the threshold of cost-effective HCC surveillance, ie, 0.2% annually.

CONCLUSIONS

REAL-B score is accurate and preferred in entecavir/tenofovir-treated CHB patients because of the increasing prevalence of DM.

Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Primary Liver Cancer (2022 Edition)

Background

Primary liver cancer, of which around 75-85% is hepatocellular carcinoma in China, is the fourth most common malignancy and the second leading cause of tumor-related death, thereby posing a significant threat to the life and health of the Chinese people.

Summary

Since the publication of Guidelines for Diagnosis and Treatment of Primary Liver Cancer in China in June 2017, which were updated by the National Health Commission in December 2019, additional high-quality evidence has emerged from researchers worldwide regarding the diagnosis, staging, and treatment of liver cancer, that requires the guidelines to be updated again. The new edition (2022 Edition) was written by more than 100 experts in the field of liver cancer in China, which not only reflects the real-world situation in China but also may reshape the nationwide diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer.

Key Messages

The new guideline aims to encourage the implementation of evidence-based practice and improve the national average 5-year survival rate for patients with liver cancer, as proposed in the "Health China 2030 Blueprint."

Novel, high accuracy models for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction based on longitudinal data and cell-free DNA signatures

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores do not reflect changes in HCC risk resulting from liver disease progression/regression over time. We aimed to develop and validate two novel prediction models using multivariate longitudinal data, with or without cell-free DNA (cfDNA) signatures.

METHODS

A total of 13,728 patients from two nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohorts, the majority of whom had chronic hepatitis B, were enrolled. aMAP score, as one of the most promising HCC prediction models, was evaluated for each patient. Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was used to derive multi-modal cfDNA fragmentomics features. A longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to model longitudinal profiles of patient biomarkers and estimate the risk of HCC development.

RESULTS

We developed and externally validated two novel HCC prediction models with a greater accuracy, termed aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores. The aMAP-2 score, calculated with longitudinal data on the aMAP score and alpha-fetoprotein values during an up to 8-year follow-up, performed superbly in the training and external validation cohorts (AUC 0.83-0.84). The aMAP-2 score showed further improvement and accurately divided aMAP-defined high-risk patients into two groups with 5-year cumulative HCC incidences of 23.4% and 4.1%, respectively (p = 0.0065). The aMAP-2 Plus score, which incorporates cfDNA signatures (nucleosome, fragment and motif scores), optimized the prediction of HCC development, especially for patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.85-0.89). Importantly, the stepwise approach (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) stratified patients with cirrhosis into two groups, comprising 90% and 10% of the cohort, with an annual HCC incidence of 0.8% and 12.5%, respectively (p <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores are highly accurate in predicting HCC. The stepwise application of aMAP scores provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at a high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: Significant histological changes among treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients with normal alanine aminotransferase levels by different criteria

BACKGROUND

The upper limits of normal (ULNs) of ALT are not consistent across the major international guidelines which may affect the eligibility for antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIM

To estimate the proportions of histological changes among treatment-naïve patients with CHB within differently defined ALT ULNs.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase up to May 15th, 2023, to identify studies of treatment-naïve CHB patients with liver biopsies. We pooled proportions of moderate to severe necroinflammation, significant fibrosis, and cirrhosis in those patients within different ALT ULNs by using random-effect models.

RESULTS

We included 23 studies with 4010 participants. Within ALT ULN at 40 IU/L, the pooled proportions of moderate to severe necroinflammation, significant fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 33% (95% CI: 26%-42%), 32% (95% CI: 27%-38%), and 3% (95% CI: 1%-5%), respectively. Within ALT ULN at 30 IU/L for men and 19 IU/L for women, the pooled proportion of significant fibrosis remained at 30% (95% CI: 25%-34%; 432 participants). However, it was 21% (95% CI: 11%-37%; 361 participants) even in those within ALT ULN at 20 IU/L. Subgroup analyses suggested a significantly higher proportion of significant fibrosis among studies with prospective design or enrolled patients' mean age >35 or >40 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant histological changes occurred in approximately 1/3 of treatment-naïve CHB patients within ALT ULN at 40 IU/L, whereas the proportion of significant fibrosis was approximately 1/5 even in those within ALT ULN at 20 IU/L.

Tenofovir alafenamide and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background & Aims

Antiviral therapy may attenuate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to explore how tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) affect HCC risk in patients with CHB.

Methods

The REACH-B, aMAP, and mPAGE-B models were utilized to assess HCC risk in patients with CHB from two global randomized-controlled trials evaluating the impact of TAF vs. TDF treatment. Standard incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using data from the REACH-B model as a ratio of observed HCC cases in the TAF- or TDF-treated patients vs. predicted HCC cases for untreated historical controls. Proportions of treated patients shifting aMAP and mPAGE-B risk categories between baseline and Week 240 were calculated.

Results

Of the 1,632 patients (TAF, n = 1,093; TDF, n = 539) followed for up to 300 weeks, 22 HCC cases developed. Those receiving TAF had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals receiving TDF: 0.32 (p <0.001) vs. 0.56 (p = 0.06). In the general study population, individuals without cirrhosis at baseline had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals with cirrhosis at baseline: 0.37 (p <0.001) vs. 0.58 (p = 0.15). Of the patients at low risk of HCC at baseline, the majority (97%) remained low risk by mPAGE-B and aMAP scoring at Week 240. Among those at medium or high risk at baseline, substantial portions shifted to a lower risk category by Week 240 (mPAGE-B: 22% and 42%; aMAP: 39% and 63%, respectively).

Conclusions

This evaluation provides evidence that treatment with TAF or TDF can reduce HCC risk in patients with CHB, particularly in patients without cirrhosis.

Impact and implications

Despite the substantial impact of HCC on long-term outcomes of patients with CHB, the differential risk of HCC development among those receiving treatment with TAF vs. TDF has not been well elucidated. Using three validated risk prediction models, we found that TAF is at least as effective as TDF in reducing HCC risk in patients with CHB. While TDF is well-studied in the context of HCC risk reduction, our novel findings underscore the effectiveness of TAF as a treatment option for patients with CHB.

Clinical trial numbers

NCT01940341; NCT02836249; NCT01940471; NCT02836236.

Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection: An Ongoing Challenge in Screening and Treatment

With the advent of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) in the recent few years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has become a curable infectious disease. Successful clearance of HCV could lead to improvement of both hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes, such as complications of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, cardiovascular diseases, and incident diabetes. However, challenges persist in reaching the HCV elimination goals of the World Health Organization by 2030. Among these challenges are identifying those already infected or undiagnosed subjects, re-linking to the care of known but untreated HCV-infected subjects, and developing strategies to enhance treatment rates and compliance in specific or high-risk populations. In addition, issues of post-DAA viral clearance, including avoiding or preventing reinfection in high-risk populations and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma, are important to consolidate the treatment's short- and long-term efficacies. In the current DAA era, treatment is the most effective prevention strategy not only in its excellent efficacy and safety but also in preventing HCV spread. All of the surveillance or measures should center on DAA treatment in clinical practice.

From NAFLD to HCC: Advances in noninvasive diagnosis

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has gradually become one of the major liver health problems in the world. The dynamic course of the disease goes through steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, and carcinoma. Before progressing to carcinoma, timely and effective intervention will make the condition better, which highlights the importance of early diagnosis. With the further study of the biological mechanism in the pathogenesis and progression of NAFLD, some potential biomarkers have been discovered, and the possibility of their clinical application is gradually being discussed. At the same time, the progress of imaging technology and the emergence of new materials and methods also provide more possibilities for the diagnosis of NAFLD. This article reviews the diagnostic markers and advanced diagnostic methods of NAFLD in recent years.

Spontaneously ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma on non-cirrhotic liver: A prospective case series

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma is an uncommon complication, and there are scarce data about non-cirrhotic patients. Tumor treatment is not standardized and the risk of peritoneal dissemination is unclear.

AIM

we analyzed the treatment and survival in patients with rHCC on non-cirrhotic liver.

METHODS

One hundred and forty-one non-cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed by histology were included in a multicenter prospective registry (2018-2022). Seven of them (5%) presented with hemoperitoneum due to spontaneous rupture.

RESULTS

Liver disease was associated in three patients (42.9%). A single nodule was detected in three cases (42.9%). One patient had vascular invasion and none extrahepatic spread. Initial hemostatic therapy and sequential treatment was individualized. Patients with single nodule were treated: resection (one case) with recurrence at 4 months treated with TACE and sorafenib. TACE/TAE followed by surgery (two cases) one in remission 43 months later, the other had liver recurrence at 18 months and was transplanted. Patients with multiple lesions were treated: TAE/emergency surgery and subsequent systemic therapy (two cases), one received lenvatinib (1-year survival) and the other sorafenib (5-month survival). TAE and surgery with subsequent systemic therapy (one case). Initial hemostatic surgery, dying on admission (one case). No patient developed intraperitoneal metastasis. All patients with multiple lesions died by tumor. The 3-year survival rate was 42.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Initial hemostasis was achieved in all patients by TAE/TACE or surgery. Subsequent treatment was individualized, based on tumor characteristics, regardless of rupture. Long-time remission could be achieved in single nodule patients.

HCC prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Our study aimed to compare the predictive performance of different hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir, including discrimination, calibration, negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk, and proportion of low-risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature research in PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science before January 13, 2022. The predictive performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration index, negative predictive value, and the proportion in low-risk. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses of discrimination and calibration were conducted. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the results.

RESULTS

We identified ten prediction models in 23 studies. The pooled 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUROC varied from 0.72 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.83, and 0.76 to 0.86, respectively. REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and HCC-RESCUE achieved the best discrimination. HCC-RESCUE, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B overestimated HCC development, whereas mREACH-B, AASL-HCC, REAL-B, CAMD, CAGE-B, SAGE-B, and aMAP underestimated it. All models were able to identify people with a low risk of HCC accurately. HCC-RESCUE and aMAP recognized over half of the population as low-risk. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

Considering the predictive performance of all four aspects, we suggest that HCC-RESCUE was the best model to utilize in clinical practice, especially in primary care and low-income areas. To confirm our findings, further validation studies with the above four components were required.

Current Status and Future Direction of Albumin-Bilirubin in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Bibliometric Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant tumor, so we need a convenient and objective way to diagnose and treat HCC. We discuss the current situation, progress, hotspots, and existing problems of Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) in HCC, which can provide new ideas for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of HCC.

METHODS

We adopt Excel 2019 software and visual analysis tools based on Web of Science database search. This manuscript uses VOSviewer, Co-Occurrence13.3 (COOC13.3) software to conduct overall trend analysis, synonym merging, frequency of countries, journals, institutions, funds, dissimilarity matrices, co-occurrence matrices, bimodal matrices, coupling matrices, cluster analysis of topic evolution time zone graphs.

RESULTS

A total of 610 papers were included, and the number of papers output showed an overall upward trend. ALBI has been valued by the industry in HCC and plays an important role in diagnosing and treating HCC, even better than the classic Child-Pugh (C-P) grade. At the same time, hot spots in the treatment of HCC and other applications of ALBI were discovered.

CONCLUSION

ALBI score is a convenient and objective liver function evaluation index, which plays an important role in the prediction of patient survival rate and prognosis. Promoting the ALBI score in HCC can help doctors judge the patient's condition and improve the diagnosis and precise treatment effect.

Combining the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score and shear wave elastography stratifies carcinogenic risk in hepatitis C patients after viral clearance

BACKGROUND

The treatment of hepatitis C with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) produces a high rate of sustained virological response (SVR) with fewer adverse events than interferon (IFN) therapy with a similar effect in inhibiting carcinogenesis as IFN therapy. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score is useful for stratifying the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis patients, and the velocity of shear waves (Vs) measured by shear wave elastography has also been shown to be useful for diagnosing the level of fibrotic progression in hepatitis C and predicting carcinogenic risk. Combining these two may improve the prediction of carcinogenic risk.

AIM

To determine whether combining the aMAP score with Vs improves carcinogenic risk stratification in medium-to-high-risk hepatitis C patients.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study involved hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs who achieved SVR. Vs was measured before treatment (baseline), at the end of treatment (EOT), and 12 wk (follow-up 12) and 24 wk (follow-up 24) after treatment. The patients were followed for at least six months after EOT to determine whether cancer developed. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify factors contributing to hepatic carcinogenesis. The diagnostic performances of clinical parameters for predicting the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 279 patients (mean age 65.9 years, 118 males, 161 females) were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis was performed with carcinogenesis as the target variable and alanine aminotransferase, platelets, α-fetoprotein, Vs, and the Fib-4 index as explanatory variables; only Vs was found to be significant (P = 0.0296). The cut-off value for Vs for liver carcinogenesis calculated using the ROC curve was 1.53 m/s. Carcinoma developed in 2.0% (3/151) of those with Vs < 1.53 m/s and in 10.5% (9/86) of those with Vs ≥ 1.53 m/s.

CONCLUSION

In hepatitis C patients after SVR, combining the aMAP score and Vs to stratify the risk of carcinogenesis is more efficient than uniform surveillance of all patients.