Development and validation of a model to predict incident chronic liver disease in the general population: The CLivD score

Rising hospital admissions for alcohol-related cirrhosis and the impact of sex and comorbidity - a data linkage study

OBJECTIVES

International studies have shown shifting demographic data and rising hospitalizations for alcohol-related cirrhosis (ARC), with a paucity of data from Australia. We examined hospitalizations, mortality and demographic data for people admitted with ARC over the last decade in Queensland, Australia.

STUDY DESIGN

Data linkage study.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of adults hospitalized with ARC during 2008-2019 was performed using state-wide admissions data. International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes identified admissions with the principal diagnosis of ARC based on validated algorithms. Comorbidity was assessed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index.

RESULTS

A total of 7152 individuals had 24,342 hospital admissions with ARC (16,388 were for ARC). There was a predominance of males (72.6%) and age ≥50 years (80.4%) at index admission. Females were admitted at a significantly younger age than men (59% of women and 43% of men were aged <60 years, P < 0.001). Comorbidities were common, with 45.1% of people having at least one comorbidity. More than half (54.6%) of the patients died over the study period (median follow-up time was 5.1 years; interquartile range 2.4-8.6). Women had significantly lower mortality, with 47.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.0-50.2) probability of 5-year survival, compared with 40.1% (95% CI 38.5-41.6) in men. In multivariable analysis, this was attributable to significantly lower age and comorbidity burden in women. Significantly lower survival was seen in people with higher comorbidity burden. Overall, the number of admissions for ARC increased 2.2-fold from 869 admissions in 2008 to 1932 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital admissions for ARC have risen substantially in the last decade. Females were admitted at a younger age, with fewer comorbidities and had lower mortality compared with males. The association between greater comorbidity burden and higher mortality has important clinical implications, as comorbidity-directed interventions may reduce mortality.

Association Between Insulin Resistance Indices and Liver Function Parameters Among Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate whether polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) status changes the association between insulin resistance (IR) indices and liver function parameters among women.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional, population-based study. We selected 1101 subjects aged ≥20 years from participants of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). All of them had known the status of PCOS, and all variables were related to the IR indices and liver function parameters. The main outcome measures were TG/HDL-C and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) and liver function parameters (hepatic steatosis index [HSI], alanine transaminase [ALT] and aspartate transaminase [AST]).

RESULT

In the present study, there was no significant difference between the PCOS and the non-PCOS regarding the presence of liver function abnormalities. A model adjusted by age and BMI showed that the upper tertile of TyG index was positively associated with high AST (OR = 3.04 [95% CI: 1.20-7.68], p < 0.05), high ALT (4.76 [3.07-7.36], p < 0.05) and high HSI (8.44 [1.82-39.17], p < 0.05). Although the history of diabetes had a positive impact on elevated AST (1.66 [1.15, 2.40], p < 0.05), the third tertile of TG/HDL-C was associated with increased odds of elevated ALT (3.35 [2.21-5.06]) and HSI (6.55 [1.17-36.46]), whereas the second tertile of TG/HDL-C (OR = 2.65, CI 95%: 1.74-4.03) was also positively associated with elevated ALT. PCOS had no significant association with elevated liver function tests.

CONCLUSION

The highest tertile of TyG index and the TG/HDL-C ratio as a surrogate of IR might play a role in detecting abnormalities of liver function parameters among women. However, PCOS status cannot change the association between IR and liver dysfunction.

Alcohol-associated liver disease-Global epidemiology

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), as highlighted in this narrative review, is a major public health concern, increasingly impacting global disease burden and premature mortality. In 2019, ALD accounted for the loss of 11 million life-years worldwide. The rising number of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years attributed to ALD, particularly pronounced in the United States, are alarming. Projections suggest that the economic impact of ALD, as seen in the United States, could potentially double by 2040. ALD is increasingly prevalent among younger adults (20-45 y) and has become the leading cause of liver transplantation in both United States and Europe. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the existing trend was further amplified as high-risk drinking patterns coincided with a rise in hospital admissions for alcohol-associated hepatitis and increased ALD-related mortality. The prevalence of ALD is estimated at 3.5% in the general population, 26.0% among hazardous drinkers, and 55.1% among those with alcohol use disorders. Alarmingly, 5-year mortality rates for patients with ALD exceed 50%, with even higher rates in more advanced disease stages. Methodological challenges, such as underreporting, diagnostic difficulties, and variability in registry data quality, complicate the accurate assessment of the impact of ALD. Additionally, the contribution of alcohol to the progression of other liver diseases is often under acknowledged in health care registries, leading to a significant underestimation of its broader implications for liver health. Addressing the growing ALD concern requires robust public health initiatives, heightened awareness, refined diagnostic techniques, and comprehensive epidemiological studies. These measures are vital to tackle the increasing prevalence of ALD and mitigate its extensive impact on individuals and health care systems.

Non-invasive tests for alcohol-associated liver disease

Alcohol consumption is a global phenomenon and a major contributor to alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Detecting individuals at risk of ALD has been challenging, with only a small fraction of patients being identified at early stages compared to other chronic liver diseases. In response to this challenge, non-invasive tests (NITs) have become essential tools for the detection of ALD, offering opportunities for early identification and intervention to mitigate the disease burden. Noninvasive alcohol consumption biomarkers are crucial in estimating individuals' recent alcohol intake, providing valuable insights into their drinking patterns. Various NITs have been investigated for the initial screening of asymptomatic individuals at risk of ALD, as well as for identifying specific stages of the disease. These NITs are applied in 2 main clinical scenarios: population-based stratification for identifying and predicting liver-related symptoms and diagnosing and prognosticating compensated cirrhosis or advanced chronic liver disease in secondary or tertiary care settings. Moreover, NITs play a significant role in the prognostic assessment of patients with various manifestations of ALD, including alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), decompensated cirrhosis, and metabolic-associated and ALD. These tests guide appropriate treatment decisions and predict outcomes. In this review, various NITs for the early detection and monitoring of alcohol consumption were discussed. Additionally, the evaluation of NITs for screening and predicting ALD and liver complications was addressed comprehensively. Future perspectives of NITs for ALD were explored, alongside a thorough discussion of the opportunities and challenges associated with NITs for ALD screening.

Impact of MASLD and MetALD on clinical outcomes: A meta-analysis of preliminary evidence

A recent Delphi consensus proposed a new definition for metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and introduced a disease entity called MetALD, a condition in which steatotic liver disease (SLD), metabolic dysfunction and moderate alcohol intake coexist. Given the limited available data on the prognostic implications of these disease entities, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of available cohort studies to evaluate the association of MASLD and MetALD with hard clinical outcomes. We included 5 studies for a total of 9 824 047 participants. Compared with participants without SLD, increased rates of all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular disease were present for both MASLD and MetALD. Moreover, MetALD was also associated with significantly higher risks of cancer-related mortality (n = 2 studies, random-effects HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.35-3.28) and cardiovascular mortality (n = 3 studies, random-effects HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.12-1.22). Although preliminary, available evidence indicates a more unfavourable prognosis for patients with MetALD compared with those with MASLD.

The hidden epidemic: Uncovering incidental fatty liver disease and its metabolic comorbidities by datamining in a hospital data lake - A real-world cohort study

AIMS

To identify individuals with incidental fatty liver disease (FLD), and to evaluate its prevalence, metabolic co-morbidities and impact on follow-up.

METHODS

We leveraged the data-lake of Helsinki Uusimaa Hospital district (Finland) with a population of 1.7 million (specialist and primary care). A phrase recognition script on abdominal imaging reports (2008-2020) identified/excluded FLD or cirrhosis; we extracted ICD-codes, laboratory and BMI data.

RESULTS

Excluding those with other liver diseases, the prevalence of FLD was 29% (steatosis yes/no, N=61,271/155,521; cirrhosis, N=3502). The false positive and negative rates were 5-6%. Only 1.6% of the FLD cases had the ICD code recorded and 32% had undergone full clinical evaluation for associated co-morbidities. Of the 35-65-year-old individuals with FLD, 20% had diabetes, 42% prediabetes and 28% a high liver fibrosis index. FLD was independently predicted by diabetes (OR 1.56, CI 1.46-1.66, p = 2.3 * 10^-41), BMI (1.46, 1.42-1.50, p = 1.7 * 10^-154) and plasma triglyceride level (1.5, 1.43-1.57, p = 3.5 * 10^-68). Alanine aminotransferase level mildly increased (1.12, 1.08-1.16, p = 2.2 * 10^-9) and high age decreased the risk (0.92, 0.89-0.94, p = 4.65*10^-09). Half of the cases had normal ALT.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidental radiological finding of FLD is reliable and associated with metabolic risks but largely ignored, although it should lead to metabolic and hepatic follow-up.

Validation of the new nomenclature of steatotic liver disease in patients with a history of excessive alcohol intake: an analysis of data from a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Steatotic liver disease is a new overarching term that includes metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), metabolic dysfunction and alcohol-related steatotic liver disease (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). We aimed to validate the prognostic importance of MASLD, MetALD, and ALD as steatotic liver disease subclasses.

METHODS

Between April 18, 2013, and Sept 17, 2018, we prospectively recruited patients aged 18-75 years with current or previous excessive alcohol intake (>24 g/day for women and >36 g/day for men) for at least a year and no previous hepatic decompensation from the Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Odense University Hospital (Odense, Denmark). Participants were followed up until Sept 15, 2022. Here, we characterise these patients according to steatotic liver disease subclasses. We classified patients as having MASLD, MetALD, or ALD in accordance with the nomenclature definitions, on the basis of metabolic comorbidity and self-reported average alcohol intake in the 3 months leading up to inclusion. Histological scoring was done by a pathologist who was masked to the clinical data. We compared prognoses between classes using Cox regression analyses on hepatic decompensation and overall mortality as the two outcome measures. Patients not meeting the criteria for steatotic liver disease were classified as no steatotic liver disease and served as a reference group.

FINDINGS

We enrolled 446 patients with a history of excessive alcohol intake were included in this analysis (334 [75%] were male and 112 [25%] were female; median age 56 years [SD 10]). Cirrhosis was present in 58 (13%), and 435 (98%) had at least one cardiometabolic risk factor. 321 (72%) met steatotic liver disease criteria and 125 (28%) did not have steatotic liver disease, meaning no evident liver steatosis and no significant fibrosis (≥F2). Of the 321 patients with steatotic liver disease, six (2%) were identified as having ALD due to the absence of cardiometabolic risk factors. The remaining 315 (98%) patients presented with at least one cardiometabolic risk factor. Of these patients, 153 (49%) had MASLD, 76 (24%) had MetALD, and 86 (27%) had ALD. During follow-up, 67 (15%) of 446 patients decompensated and 97 (22%) died (median follow-up 70 months [IQR 53-94]). Patients with steatotic liver disease had a significantly higher risk of hepatic decompensation and overall mortality than those without steatotic liver disease, independent of age, sex, and liver stiffness. The risk of decompensation increased in a stepwise manner from MASLD (hazard ratio 4·73 [95% CI 1·03-21·6]), through MetALD (7·69 [1·66-35·6]), to ALD (10·2 [2·24-46·4]). Similarly, overall mortality increased from MASLD (HR 2·30 [95% CI 1·08-4·90]), through MetALD (2·94 [1·31-6·58]), to ALD (3·57 [1·64-7·80]), independent of age, sex, and liver stiffness.

INTERPRETATION

Steatotic liver disease and its subclasses portend distinct prognoses. There is a need to specify how historical alcohol intake should be integrated into the nomenclature and risk stratification of steatotic liver disease.

FUNDING

EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program.

Pretreatment gamma-glutamyl transferase predicts mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs

Elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) levels are associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma. However, their role in predicting mortality in patients with CHB treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs (NAs) remains elusive. Altogether, 2843 patients with CHB treated with NAs were recruited from a multinational cohort. Serum GGT levels before and 6 months (Month-6) after initiating NAs were measured to explore their association with all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality. The annual incidence of all-cause mortality was 0.9/100 person-years over a follow-up period of 17,436.3 person-years. Compared with patients who survived, those who died had a significantly higher pretreatment (89.3 vs. 67.4 U/L, p = 0.002) and Month-6-GGT levels (62.1 vs. 38.4 U/L, p < 0.001). The factors associated with all-cause mortality included cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.66/1.92-3.70, p < 0.001), pretreatment GGT levels (HR/CI: 1.004/1.003-1.006, p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR/CI: 0.996/0.994-0.998, p = 0.001), and age (HR/CI: 1.06/1.04-1.07, p < 0.001). Regarding liver-related mortality, the independent factors included cirrhosis (HR/CI: 4.36/2.79-6.89, p < 0.001), pretreatment GGT levels (HR/CI: 1.006/1.004-1.008, p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR/CI: 0.993/0.990-0.997, p = 0.001), age (HR/CI: 1.03/1.01-1.05, p < 0.001), and fatty liver disease (HR/CI: 0.30/0.15-0.59, p = 0.001). Pretreatment GGT levels were also independently predictive of non-liver-related mortality (HR/CI: 1.003/1.000-1.005, p = 0.03). The results remained consistent after excluding the patients with a history of alcohol use. A dose-dependent manner of <25, 25-75, and >75 percentile of pretreatment GGT levels was observed with respect to the all-cause mortality (trend p < 0.001). Pretreatment serum GGT levels predicted all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality in patients with CHB treated with NAs.

Algorithms for Early Detection of Silent Liver Fibrosis in the Primary Care Setting

More than one-third of the adult world population has steatotic liver disease (SLD), with a few percent of individuals developing cirrhosis after decades of silent liver fibrosis accumulation. Lack of systematic early detection causes most patients to be diagnosed late, after decompensation, when treatment has limited effect and survival is poor. Unfortunately, no isolated screening test in primary care can sufficiently predict advanced fibrosis from SLD. Recent efforts, therefore, combine several parameters into screening algorithms, to increase diagnostic accuracy. Besides patient selection, for example, by specific characteristics, algorithms include nonpatented or patented blood tests and liver stiffness measurements using elastography-based techniques. Algorithms can be composed as a set of sequential tests, as recommended by most guidelines on primary care pathways. Future use of algorithms that are easy to interpret, cheap, and semiautomatic will improve the management of patients with SLD, to the benefit of global health care systems.

New Nomenclature for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Understanding Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease, Metabolic Dysfunction- and Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease, and Their Implications in Clinical Practice

In June 2023, under the patronage of the American Association for Study of Liver Disease, the European Association for Study of the Liver, and the Asociación Latinoamericana para el Estudio del Hígado with the involvement of 236 participants from around the world, a new nomenclature and definition for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been proposed. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was defined as presence of hepatic steatosis and at least one of the cardiometabolic risk factors with alcohol intake less than 140 g/wk for women and 210 g/wk for men and no other causes of steatosis. A new entity called combined metabolic dysfunction- and alcohol-associated liver disease (MetALD) was created outside of pure MASLD for patients with metabolic dysfunction and alcohol intake greater than that allowed for MASLD (i.e., 140-350 g/wk for women and 210-420 g/wk for men). Recent studies have confirmed a 95% overlap between NAFLD and the new MASLD diagnostic criteria. Natural history, biomarkers, and thresholds of alcohol intake in MetALD group remains to be studied and validated.

Development and validation of an image biomarker to identify metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis: MR-MASH score

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) requires histology. In this study, a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) score was developed and validated to identify MASH in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Secondarily, a screening strategy for MASH diagnosis was investigated.

METHODS

This prospective multicentre study included 317 patients with biopsy-proven MASLD and contemporaneous MRI. The discovery cohort (Spain, Portugal) included 194 patients. NAFLD activity score (NAS) and fibrosis were assessed with the NASH-CRN histologic system. MASH was defined by the presence of steatosis, lobular inflammation, and ballooning, with NAS ≥4 with or without fibrosis. An MRI-based composite biomarker of Proton Density Fat Fraction and waist circumference (MR-MASH score) was developed. Findings were afterwards validated in an independent cohort (United States, Spain) with different MRI protocols.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, 51% (n = 99) had MASH. The MR-MASH score identified MASH with an AUC = .88 (95% CI .83-.93) and strongly correlated with NAS (r = .69). The MRI score lower cut-off corresponded to 88% sensitivity with 86% NPV, while the upper cut-off corresponded to 92% specificity with 87% PPV. MR-MASH was validated with an AUC = .86 (95% CI .77-.92), 91% sensitivity (lower cut-off) and 87% specificity (upper cut-off). A two-step screening strategy with sequential MR-MASH examination performed in patients with indeterminate-high FIB-4 or transient elastography showed an 83-84% PPV to identify MASH. The AUC of MR-MASH was significantly higher than that of the FAST score (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The MR-MASH score has clinical utility in the identification and management of patients with MASH at risk of progression.

Combined use of the CLivD score and FIB-4 for prediction of liver-related outcomes in the population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A need exists for effective and practical tools to identify individuals at increased risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) within the general population.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We externally validated the chronic liver disease (CLivD) score for LROs in the UK Biobank cohort. We also investigated the sequential combined use of CLivD and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores. Our analysis included 369,832 adults without baseline liver disease and with available data for CLivD and FIB-4 computation. LROs reflecting compensated or decompensated liver cirrhosis or HCC were ascertained through linkages with electronic health care registries. Discriminatory performance and cumulative incidence were evaluated with competing-risk methodologies. Over a 10-year follow-up, time-dependent AUC values for LRO prediction were 0.80 for CLivD lab (including gamma-glutamyltransferase), 0.72 for CLivD non-lab (excluding laboratory values), and 0.75 for FIB-4. CLivD lab demonstrated AUC values exceeding 0.85 for liver-related death and severe alcohol-associated liver outcomes. The predictive performance of FIB-4 increased with rising CLivD scores; 10-year FIB-4 AUC values ranged from 0.60 within the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup to 0.81 within the high-risk CLivD subgroup. Moreover, in the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup, the cumulative incidence of LRO varied from 0.05% to 0.3% across low-to-high FIB-4 strata. In contrast, within the high-risk CLivD subgroup, the corresponding incidence ranged from 1.7% to 21.1% (up to 33% in individuals with FIB-4 >3.25).

CONCLUSIONS

The CLivD score is a valid tool for LRO risk assessment and improves the predictive performance of FIB-4. The combined use of CLivD and FIB-4 identified a subgroup where 1 in 3 individuals developed LROs within 10 years.

Combined use of the ELF test and CLivD score improves prediction of liver-related outcomes in the general population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Effective and feasible population screening strategies are needed for the early detection of individuals at high risk of future severe liver-related outcomes. We evaluated the predictive performance of the combination of liver fibrosis assessment, phenotype profile, and genetic risk.

METHODS

Data from 5795 adults attending the Finnish Health 2000 Survey were linked with healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, hepatocellular cancer, and death). Fibrosis was assessed using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, phenotype profile by the chronic liver disease (CLivD) risk score, and genetic risk by a validated Polygenic Risk Score (PRS-5). Predictive performance was assessed by competing-risk analyses.

RESULTS

During a median 13-year follow-up, 64 liver-related outcome events were recorded. ELF, CLivD score, and PRS-5 were independently associated with liver-related outcomes. The absolute 10-year risk of liver-related outcomes at an ELF value of 11.3 ranged from 0.3% to 33% depending on the CLivD score. The CLivD score added 51% of new predictive information to the ELF test and improved areas under the curve (AUCs) from 0.91, 0.81, and 0.71 for ELF alone to 0.95, 0.85, and 0.80, respectively, for ELF combined with the CLivD score at 1, 5, and 10 years. The greatest improvement was for 10-year predictions (delta-AUC 0.097, p < .0001). Adding PRS-5 did not significantly increase predictive performance. Findings were consistent in individuals with obesity, diabetes, or alcohol risk use, and regardless of whether gamma-glutamyltransferase was used in the CLivD score.

CONCLUSION

A combination of ELF and CLivD score predicts liver-related outcomes significantly better than the ELF test alone.

Waist-hip ratio is superior to BMI in predicting liver-related outcomes and synergizes with harmful alcohol use

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with liver disease, but the best obesity-related predictor remains undefined. Controversy exists regarding possible synergism between obesity and alcohol use for liver-related outcomes (LRO). We assessed the predictive performance for LROs, and synergism with alcohol use, of abdominal obesity (waist-hip ratio, WHR), and compared it to overall obesity (body mass index, BMI).

METHODS

Forty-thousand nine-hundred twenty-two adults attending the Finnish health-examination surveys, FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 studies, were followed through linkage with electronic healthcare registries for LROs (hospitalizations, cancers, and deaths). Predictive performance of obesity measures (WHR, waist circumference [WC], and BMI) were assessed by Fine-Gray models and time-dependent area-under-the-curve (AUC).

RESULTS

There are 355 LROs during a median follow-up of 12.9 years (509047.8 person-years). WHR and WC emerge as more powerful predictors of LROs than BMI. WHR shows significantly better 10-year AUC values for LROs (0.714, 95% CI 0.685-0.743) than WC (0.648, 95% CI 0.617-0.679) or BMI (0.550, 95% CI 0.514-0.585) both overall and separately among men and women. WHR is predictive also in BMI strata. Absolute 10-year risks of LROs are more dependent on WHR than BMI. Moreover, WHR shows a significant supra-additive interaction effect with harmful alcohol use for liver-related outcomes (excess 10-year cumulative incidence of 2.8% from the interaction), which is not seen between BMI and harmful alcohol use.

CONCLUSIONS

WHR is a better predictor than BMI or WC for LROs, and WHR better reflects the synergism with harmful alcohol use. WHR should be included in clinical assessment when evaluating obesity-related risks for liver outcomes.

Algorithms for early detection of silent liver fibrosis in the primary care setting - a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Fatty liver disease affects almost 30% of the adult population worldwide. Most patients are asymptomatic, and there is not a linear relationship between exposure to risk factors and the risk of developing fibrosis. The combination of a very large, asymptomatic risk population where only a few percent will develop life-threatening liver disease is a growing diagnostic challenge for the health services. Accurate fibrosis assessment in primary care is limited by poor correlation with liver blood tests and low availability of elastography. Non-invasive tests are promising tools, but little is known about their diagnostic accuracy in low-risk populations.

AREAS COVERED

A scoping review was conducted to identify articles that focused on the current use of biomarkers and algorithms in primary care for the detection of patients with fatty liver disease in need of referral for further work-up.

EXPERT OPINION

Currently available algorithms for targeted screening for liver fibrosis perform better than the individual routine liver blood tests or liver ultrasonography. However, primary care physicians urgently need algorithms with even higher diagnostic accuracies than what is available today. The main limitation of the existing widely accessible algorithms, such as the FIB-4, is the large number of false-positive tests, resulting in overdiagnosis and futile referrals to secondary care.

Predictive risk markers in alcoholism

The medical disorders of alcoholism rank among the leading public health problems worldwide and the need for predictive and prognostic risk markers for assessing alcohol use disorders (AUD) has been widely acknowledged. Early-phase detection of problem drinking and associated tissue toxicity are important prerequisites for timely initiations of appropriate treatments and improving patient's committing to the objective of reducing drinking. Recent advances in clinical chemistry have provided novel approaches for a specific detection of heavy drinking through assays of unique ethanol metabolites, phosphatidylethanol (PEth) or ethyl glucuronide (EtG). Carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) measurements can be used to indicate severe alcohol problems. Hazardous drinking frequently manifests as heavy episodic drinking or in combinations with other unfavorable lifestyle factors, such as smoking, physical inactivity, poor diet or adiposity, which aggravate the metabolic consequences of alcohol intake in a supra-additive manner. Such interactions are also reflected in multiple disease outcomes and distinct abnormalities in biomarkers of liver function, inflammation and oxidative stress. Use of predictive biomarkers either alone or as part of specifically designed biological algorithms helps to predict both hepatic and extrahepatic morbidity in individuals with such risk factors. Novel approaches for assessing progression of fibrosis, a major determinant of prognosis in AUD, have also been made available. Predictive algorithms based on the combined use of biomarkers and clinical observations may prove to have a major impact on clinical decisions to detect AUD in early pre-symptomatic stages, stratify patients according to their substantially different disease risks and predict individual responses to treatment.

Changes over time in the Chronic Liver Disease risk score predict liver-related outcomes: longitudinal analysis of the Whitehall II study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk score was recently shown to predict future advanced liver disease in the general population. We here investigated the impact of individual CLivD-score changes over time.

METHODS

Participants of both phase 3 (baseline, 1991-1994) and phase 5 (follow-up, 1997-1999) examinations of the Whitehall II study were followed for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, cancer, death) until December 2019 through linkage with electronic healthcare registers. The CLivD score, its modifiable components (alcohol use, waist-hip ratio [WHR], diabetes, and smoking), and their individual changes were studied.

RESULTS

Among 6590 adults (mean age 50 years, 30% women) with a median 21-year follow-up, there were 80 liver outcomes. A rise in the CLivD score between baseline and follow-up examinations significantly increased the risk for liver-related outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.60), more so in subjects with baseline intermediate-high CLivD scores (HR 2.4 for a CLivD-change) compared to minimal-low CLivD scores. Adverse changes over time in alcohol use and WHR, and new-onset diabetes also predicted liver outcomes. In contrast to WHR, changes in body weight (kg) showed a U-shaped association with liver outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

A change in the CLivD score over time corresponds to a true change in the risk for liver-related outcomes, suggesting the usefulness of the CLivD score for assessing response to liver-directed lifestyle interventions. Changes in WHR predicted liver outcomes better than changes in body weight or waist circumference, independent of body mass index, supporting the WHR in assessing risk for future liver disease.

Alcohol consumption and metabolic syndrome: Clinical and epidemiological impact on liver disease

Alcohol use and metabolic syndrome are highly prevalent in the population and frequently co-exist. Both are implicated in a large range of health problems, including chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related outcomes (i.e. decompensation or liver transplantation). Studies have yielded mixed results regarding the effects of mild-moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of metabolic syndrome and fatty liver disease, possibly due to methodological differences. The few available prospective studies have indicated that mild-moderate alcohol use is associated with an increase in liver-related outcomes. This conclusion was substantiated by systems biology analyses suggesting that alcohol and metabolic syndrome may play a similar role in fatty liver disease, potentiating an already existing dysregulation of common vital homeostatic pathways. Alcohol and metabolic factors are independently and jointly associated with liver-related outcomes. Indeed, metabolic syndrome increases the risk of liver-related outcomes, regardless of alcohol intake. Moreover, the components of metabolic syndrome appear to have additive effects when it comes to the risk of liver-related outcomes. A number of population studies have implied that measures of central/abdominal obesity, such as the waist-to-hip ratio, can predict liver-related outcomes more accurately than BMI, including in individuals who consume harmful quantities of alcohol. Many studies even point to synergistic interactions between harmful alcohol use and many metabolic components. This accumulating evidence showing independent, combined, and modifying effects of alcohol and metabolic factors on the onset and progression of chronic liver disease highlights the multifactorial background of liver disease in the population. The available evidence suggests that more holistic approaches could be useful for risk prediction, diagnostics and treatment planning.

Impact of Physical Activity on the Characteristics and Metabolic Consequences of Alcohol Consumption: A Cross-Sectional Population-Based Study

Sedentary lifestyle and excessive alcohol drinking are major modifiable risk factors of health. In order to shed further light on the relationships between physical activity and health consequences of alcohol intake, we measured biomarkers of liver function, inflammation, lipid status and fatty liver index tests in a large population-based sample of individuals with different levels of physical activity, alcohol drinking and other lifestyle risk factors. The study included 21,050 adult participants (9940 men, 11,110 women) (mean age 48.2 ± 13.3 years) of the National FINRISK Study. Data on physical activity, alcohol drinking, smoking and body weight were recorded. The participants were classified to subgroups according to gender, levels of physical activity (sedentary, low, moderate, vigorous, extreme), alcohol drinking levels (abstainers, moderate drinkers, heavy drinkers) and patterns (regular or binge, types of beverages preferred in consumption). Serum liver enzymes (GGT, ALT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and lipid profiles were measured using standard laboratory techniques. Physical activity was linearly and inversely related with the amount of alcohol consumption, with the lowest alcohol drinking levels being observed in those with vigorous or extreme activity (p < 0.0005). Physically active individuals were less frequently binge-type drinkers, cigarette smokers or heavy coffee drinkers than those with sedentary activity (p < 0.0005 for linear trend in all comparisons). In the General Linear Model to assess the main and interaction effects of physical activity and alcohol consumption on biomarker status, as adjusted for anthropometric measures, smoking and coffee consumption, increasing levels of physical activity were found to be associated with more favorable findings on serum GGT (p < 0.0005), ALT (p < 0.0005 for men), cholesterol (p = 0.025 for men; p < 0.0005 for women), HDL-cholesterol (p < 0.0005 for men, p = 0.001 for women), LDL-cholesterol (p < 0.03 for men), triglycerides (p < 0.0005 for men, p < 0.03 for women), CRP (p < 0.0005 for men, p = 0.006 for women) and fatty liver index (p < 0.0005). The data support the view that regular moderate to vigorous physical activity may counteract adverse metabolic consequences of alcohol consumption on liver function, inflammation and lipid status. The role of physical activity should be further emphasized in interventions aimed at reducing health problems related to unfavorable risk factors of lifestyle.

Comparison of various strategies to define the optimal target population for liver fibrosis screening: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver fibrosis screening is recommended in high-risk populations, but the optimal definition of "high risk" remains to be established. We compared the performance of several risk-stratification strategies in a population-based setting.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys Health 2000 and FINRISK 2002-2012. The Chronic Liver Disease Risk Score (CLivD) was compared to previously published risk-stratification strategies based on elevated liver enzymes, alcohol use, diabetes, fatty liver index, body mass index, and/or metabolic risk factors for their ability to detect either advanced liver fibrosis or incident severe liver events. Advanced fibrosis was defined as an Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF^TM ) score >9.8 in the Health 2000 study (n = 6084), and incident liver events were ascertained from registry linkage in the combined FINRISK 2002-2012 and Health 2000 cohort (n = 26,957).

RESULTS

Depending on the cohort, 53%-60% of the population was considered at risk using the CLivD strategy (low-intermediate-high risk, excluding the minimal-risk category), compared to 30%-32% according to the other risk-stratification strategies. The CLivD captured 85%-91% of cases in the population with advanced liver fibrosis and 90% of incident severe liver events within 10 years from baseline. This compares to 33%-44% and 56%-67% captured by the other risk-stratification strategies, respectively. The 10-year cumulative incidence of liver events varied by risk-stratification strategy (1.0%-1.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to previously reported traditional risk factor-based strategies, use of the CLivD captured substantially more cases with advanced liver disease in the population and may be superior for targeting further fibrosis screening.