Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection

Statewide Survey of Primary Care and Subspecialty Providers on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk-Stratification and Surveillance Practices

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is associated with improved survival. Provision of HCC surveillance is low in the US, particularly in primary care settings.

AIMS

To evaluate current hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HCC surveillance practices and physician attitudes regarding HCC risk-stratification among primary care and subspecialty providers.

METHODS

Using the Tailored Design Method, we delivered a 34-item online survey to 7654 North Carolina-licensed internal/family medicine or gastroenterology/hepatology physicians and advanced practice providers in 2022. We included the domains of HCV treatment, cirrhosis diagnosis, HCC surveillance practices, barriers to surveillance, and interest in risk-stratification tools. We performed descriptive analyses to summarize responses. Tabulations were weighted based on sampling weights accounting for non-response and inter-specialty comparisons were made using chi-squared or t test statistics.

RESULTS

After exclusions, 266 responses were included in the final sample (response rate 3.8%). Most respondents (78%) diagnosed cirrhosis using imaging and a minority used non-invasive tests that were blood-based (~ 15%) or transient elastography (31%). Compared to primary care providers, subspecialists were more likely to perform HCC surveillance every 6-months (vs annual) (98% vs 35%, p < 0.0001). Most respondents (80%) believed there were strong data to support HCC surveillance, but primary care providers did not know which liver disease patients needed surveillance. Most providers (> 70%) expressed interest in potential solutions to improve HCC risk-stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

In this statewide survey, there were great knowledge gaps in HCC surveillance among PCPs and most respondents expressed interest in strategies to increase appropriate HCC surveillance.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p  < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Usefulness of aMAP Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence after Curative Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma within Milan Criteria

INTRODUCTION

The aMAP score is a prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis patients. This study was conducted to elucidate the utility of this model for predicting initial recurrence of HCC in patients within the Milan criteria after undergoing curative treatment.

METHODS

Patients with naïve HCC within the Milan criteria (n = 1,020) and treated from January 2000 to August 2022 were enrolled. The cohort was divided into two groups according to the aMAP score (high ≥60, low <60) and then compared for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Comparisons between the high and low groups showed that etiology (HBV:HCV:HBV+HCV:NBNC = 41:79:2:37 vs. 65:589:11:196, p < 0.001), AST (36 vs. 46 IU/L, p < 0.001), and multiple HCC occurrence (15% vs. 22%, p = 0.026) were significantly different. Additionally, median RFS (59.8 vs. 30.9 months; p < 0.001) and median OS (154.1 vs. 83.4 months, p < 0.01) were greater in the low group. As for patients with HCC due to chronic viral hepatitis, there was a significant difference in median RFS between the groups (59.8 vs. 30.6 months, p < 0.001), especially for HCV-positive patients (53.1 vs. 27.2 months, p = 0.002). In patients with HCC due to a nonviral cause, the difference in median RFS between the low (70.9 months) and high (32.0 months) groups was not significant.

DISCUSSION

Findings of this retrospective study indicate a significant association of elevated aMAP with worse RFS in patients with HCC caused by chronic viral hepatitis, especially those with HCV. The aMAP score is considered useful to predict not only HCC-carcinogenesis risk but also risk of recurrence following curative treatment.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Delivery of biannual ultrasound surveillance for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C in the UK

BACKGROUND

Previous studies show the uptake of biannual ultrasound (US) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is suboptimal. Here, our goal was to understand in broader terms how surveillance is being delivered to cirrhosis patients with cured hepatitis C in the UK.

METHODS

Hepatitis C cirrhosis patients achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) to antiviral therapies were identified from the national Hepatitis-C-Research-UK resource. Data on (i) liver/abdominal US examinations, (ii) HCC diagnoses, and (iii) HCC curative treatment were obtained through record-linkage to national health registries. The rate of US uptake was calculated by dividing the number of US episodes by follow-up time.

RESULTS

A total of 1908 cirrhosis patients from 31 liver centres were followed for 3.8 (IQR: 3.4-4.9) years. Overall, 10 396 liver/abdominal USs were identified. The proportion with biannual US was 19% in the first 3 years after SVR and 9% for all follow-up years. Higher uptake of biannual US was associated with attending a liver transplant centre; older age and cirrhosis decompensation. Funnel plot analysis indicated significant inter-centre variability in biannual US uptake, with 6/29 centres outside control limits. Incident HCC occurred in 133 patients, of which 49/133 (37%) were treated with curative intent. The number of US episodes in the two years prior to HCC diagnosis was significantly associated with higher odds of curative-intent treatment (aOR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.12-2,09; p = .007).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides novel data on the cascade of care for HCC in the UK. Our findings suggest biannual US is poorly targeted, inefficient and is not being delivered equitably to all patients.

Evaluation of the aMAP score for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a realistic opportunity to risk stratify

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a 'real world' surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death.

RESULTS

The aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79-0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from this 'real-world' cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION

Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP).

METHODS

All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP.

RESULTS

The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from &lt;0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to &gt;10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ .

DISCUSSION

Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Predictive Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment of HCV

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is still one of the major risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most frequent type of primary liver cancer. Direct-acting antivirals have substantially improved the cure rate of the virus, but the risk of hepatitis C virus-related HCC remains high, mainly in patients with advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. HCC is often asymptomatic and, therefore, remains undetected until the late tumor stage, which is associated with poor survival rates. Therefore, to improve the surveillance programs following HCV eradication, there is a need to summarize predictive factors or potential biomarkers, to specifically identify patients likely to develop HCC after direct-acting antiviral treatment. This review outlines the most recent data about different predictive factors for HCC development after direct-acting antiviral treatment of hepatitis C virus-infected patients, to improve the clinical management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus.