Machine learning decision tree algorithm role for predicting mortality in critically ill adult COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU

Evaluating the impact of metabolic indicators and scores on cardiovascular events using machine learning

Cardiovascular diseases such as coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and heart failure impact millions of people annually globally and are a major cause of disease and death. This study explores the predictive capabilities of novel metabolic indices (TyG, HOMA-IR, TG/HDL-C, and VAI) for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and analyzes their relationships with diabetes and cardiovascular risks. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning from 2003 to 2018, we applied multiple machine learning algorithms to evaluate nine metabolic indicators including cholesterol levels, triglycerides, insulin, and waist circumference. Through cross-validation to validate model performance, the XGBoost algorithm demonstrated the most accurate performance in predicting cardiovascular outcomes, particularly for diseases like angina and heart failure. Additionally, SHAP value analysis confirmed the critical roles of waist circumference and METS-IR in predicting adverse cardiovascular events. Furthermore, we employed 100 machine learning algorithms to calculate the AUC values of metabolic indicators in predicting AP, CHD, HF, and MI, showing that METS-IR had the greatest contribution in these aspects. This research highlights the significance of metabolic indices in stratifying cardiovascular risks and presents potential avenues for targeted preventive strategies.

Machine Learning Approaches for Neuroblastoma Risk Prediction and Stratification

Machine learning (ML) holds great promise in advancing risk prediction and stratification for neuroblastoma, a highly heterogeneous pediatric cancer. By utilizing large-scale biological and clinical data, ML models can detect complex patterns that traditional approaches often overlook, enabling more personalized treatments and better patient outcomes. Various ML techniques, such as support vector machines, random forests, and deep learning, have shown superior performance in predicting survival, relapse, and treatment responses in neuroblastoma patients compared to conventional methods. However, challenges like limited data size, model interpretability, data variability, and difficulties in clinical integration hinder broader adoption. Additionally, ethical concerns related to bias and privacy must be addressed. Future work should focus on improving data quality, enhancing model transparency, and conducting thorough clinical validation. With these advancements, ML has the potential to revolutionize neuroblastoma care by refining early diagnosis, risk assessment, and therapeutic decision-making.

The value of CCTA combined with machine learning for predicting angina pectoris in the anomalous origin of the right coronary artery

BACKGROUND

Anomalous origin of coronary artery is a common coronary artery anatomy anomaly. The anomalous origin of the coronary artery may lead to problems such as narrowing of the coronary arteries at the beginning of the coronary arteries and abnormal alignment, which may lead to myocardial ischemia due to the compression of the coronary arteries. Clinical symptoms include chest tightness and dyspnea, with angina pectoris as a common symptom that can be life-threatening. Timely and accurate diagnosis of anomalous coronary artery origin is of great importance. Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) can provide detailed information on the characteristics of coronary arteries. Therefore, we combined CCTA and artificial intelligence (AI) technology to analyze the CCTA image features and clinical features of patients with anomalous origin of the right coronary artery to predict angina pectoris and the relevance of different features to angina pectoris.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, we compiled data on 15 characteristics from 126 patients diagnosed with anomalous right coronary artery origins. The dataset encompassed both CCTA imaging attributes, such as the positioning of the right coronary artery orifices and the alignment of coronary arteries, and clinical parameters including gender and age. To identify the most salient features, we employed the Chi-square feature selection method, which filters features based on their statistical significance. We then focused on features yielding a Chi-square score exceeding a threshold of 1, thereby narrowing down the selection to seven key variables, including cardiac function and gender. Subsequently, we evaluated seven classifiers known for their efficacy in classification tasks. Through rigorous training and testing, we conducted a comparative analysis to identify the top three classifiers with the highest accuracy rates.

RESULTS

The top three classifiers in this study are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ensemble Learning (EL), and Kernel Approximation Classifier. Among the SVM, EL and Kernel Approximation Classifier-based classifiers, the best performance is achieved for linear SVM, optimizable Ensembles Learning and SVM kernel, respectively. And the corresponding accuracy is 75.7%, 75.7%, and 73.0%, respectively. The AUC values are 0.77, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning (ML) models can predict angina pectoris caused by the origin anomalous of the right coronary artery, providing valuable auxiliary diagnostic information for clinicians and serving as a warning to clinicians. It is hoped that timely intervention and treatment can be realized to avoid serious consequences such as myocardial infarction.

The state of artificial intelligence in medical research: A survey of corresponding authors from top medical journals

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a subset of artificial intelligence that enables machines to understand and respond to human language through Large Language Models (LLMs)‥ These models have diverse applications in fields such as medical research, scientific writing, and publishing, but concerns such as hallucination, ethical issues, bias, and cybersecurity need to be addressed. To understand the scientific community's understanding and perspective on the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in research and authorship, a survey was designed for corresponding authors in top medical journals. An online survey was conducted from July 13th, 2023, to September 1st, 2023, using the SurveyMonkey web instrument, and the population of interest were corresponding authors who published in 2022 in the 15 highest-impact medical journals, as ranked by the Journal Citation Report. The survey link has been sent to all the identified corresponding authors by mail. A total of 266 authors answered, and 236 entered the final analysis. Most of the researchers (40.6%) reported having moderate familiarity with artificial intelligence, while a minority (4.4%) had no associated knowledge. Furthermore, the vast majority (79.0%) believe that artificial intelligence will play a major role in the future of research. Of note, no correlation between academic metrics and artificial intelligence knowledge or confidence was found. The results indicate that although researchers have varying degrees of familiarity with artificial intelligence, its use in scientific research is still in its early phases. Despite lacking formal AI training, many scholars publishing in high-impact journals have started integrating such technologies into their projects, including rephrasing, translation, and proofreading tasks. Efforts should focus on providing training for their effective use, establishing guidelines by journal editors, and creating software applications that bundle multiple integrated tools into a single platform.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning: Definition of terms and current concepts in critical care research

With increasing computing power, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have prospered, which facilitate the analysis of large datasets, especially those found in critical care. It is important to define these terminologies, to inform a standardized approach to critical care research. This manuscript hopes to clarify these terms with examples from medical literature. Three major components that are required for a successful ML implementation: (i) reliable dataset, (ii) ML algorithm, and (iii) unbiased model evaluation, are discussed. A reliable dataset can be structured or unstructured with limited noise, outliers, and missing values. ML, a subset of AI, is typically focused on supervised or unsupervised learning tasks in which the output is based on inputs and derived from iterative pattern recognition algorithms, while AI is the overall ability of a machine to "think" or mimic human behavior; and to analyze data free from human influence. Even with successful implementation, advanced AI and ML algorithms have faced challenges in adoption into practice, mainly due to their lack of interpretability, which hinders trust, buy-in, and engagement from clinicians. Consequently, traditional algorithms, such as linear and logistic regression, that may have reduced predictive power but are highly interpretable, continue to be widely used.

An MCDM approach for Reverse vaccinology model to predict bacterial protective antigens

Reverse vaccinology (RV) is a significant step in sensible vaccine design. In recent years, many machine learning (ML) methods have been used to improve RV prediction accuracy. However, there are still issues with prediction accuracy and programme accessibility in ML-based RV. This paper presents a supervised ML-based method to classify bacterial protective antigens (BPAgs) and identify the model(s) that consistently perform well for the training dataset. Six ML classifiers are used for testing with physiochemical features extracted from a comprehensive training dataset. Selecting the best performing model from different performance metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC-ROC) has not been easy, because all the metrics has the same importance to predict BPAgs. To fix this issue, we propose a soft and hard ranking model based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for selecting the best performing ML method that classifies BPAgs. First, our proposed model uses homologous proteins (positive and negative samples) from Protegen and Uniprot databases. Second, we applied four strategies of Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique and Edited Nearest Neighbour (SMOTE-ENN) to handle the data imbalance problem and train the model using ML methods. Third, we consider MCDM-based technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method integrated with soft and hard ranking model. The entropy is used to obtain weighted evaluation criteria for ranking the models. Our experimental evaluations show that the proposed method with best performing models (Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting) outperforms compared to existing open-source RV methods using benchmark datasets.

Machine learning algorithms for predicting COVID-19 mortality in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global public health crisis, continues to pose challenges despite preventive measures. The daily rise in COVID-19 cases is concerning, and the testing process is both time-consuming and costly. While several models have been created to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients, only a few have shown sufficient accuracy. Machine learning algorithms offer a promising approach to data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes, surpassing traditional statistical modeling. Leveraging machine learning (ML) algorithms could potentially provide a solution for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop and validate machine-learning models for accurately predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Our study involved analyzing electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients who were admitted to public hospitals in Ethiopia. Specifically, we developed seven different machine learning models to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. These models included J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighborhood (k-NN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR). We then compared the performance of these models using data from a cohort of 696 patients through statistical analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we utilized metrics derived from the confusion matrix such as sensitivity, specificity, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

RESULTS

The study included a total of 696 patients, with a higher number of females (440 patients, accounting for 63.2%) compared to males. The median age of the participants was 35.0 years old, with an interquartile range of 18-79. After conducting different feature selection procedures, 23 features were examined, and identified as predictors of mortality, and it was determined that gender, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and alcohol drinking/addiction were the top three predictors of COVID-19 mortality. On the other hand, loss of smell, loss of taste, and hypertension were identified as the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. The experimental results revealed that the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm outperformed than other machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 95.25%, sensitivity of 95.30%, precision of 92.7%, specificity of 93.30%, F1 score 93.98% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 96.90%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the k-NN algorithm in predicting COVID-19 outcomes based on the selected features.

CONCLUSION

Our study has developed an innovative model that utilizes hospital data to accurately predict the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this model is to prioritize early treatment for high-risk patients and optimize strained healthcare systems during the ongoing pandemic. By integrating machine learning with comprehensive hospital databases, our model effectively classifies patients' mortality risk, enabling targeted medical interventions and improved resource management. Among the various methods tested, the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm demonstrated the highest accuracy, allowing for early identification of high-risk patients. Through KNN feature identification, we identified 23 predictors that significantly contribute to predicting COVID-19 mortality. The top five predictors are gender (female), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, alcohol drinking, smoking, and symptoms of headache and chills. This advancement holds great promise in enhancing healthcare outcomes and decision-making during the pandemic. By providing services and prioritizing patients based on the identified predictors, healthcare facilities and providers can improve the chances of survival for individuals. This model provides valuable insights that can guide healthcare professionals in allocating resources and delivering appropriate care to those at highest risk.

Use of machine learning to identify protective factors for death from COVID-19 in the ICU: a retrospective study

Background

Patients in serious condition due to COVID-19 often require special care in intensive care units (ICUs). This disease has affected over 758 million people and resulted in 6.8 million deaths worldwide. Additionally, the progression of the disease may vary from individual to individual, that is, it is essential to identify the clinical parameters that indicate a good prognosis for the patient. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been used for analyzing complex medical data and identifying prognostic indicators. However, there is still an urgent need for a model to elucidate the predictors related to patient outcomes. Therefore, this research aimed to verify, through ML, the variables involved in the discharge of patients admitted to the ICU due to COVID-19.

Methods

In this study, 126 variables were collected with information on demography, hospital length stay and outcome, chronic diseases and tumors, comorbidities and risk factors, complications and adverse events, health care, and vital indicators of patients admitted to an ICU in southern Brazil. These variables were filtered and then selected by a ML algorithm known as decision trees to identify the optimal set of variables for predicting patient discharge using logistic regression. Finally, a confusion matrix was performed to evaluate the model's performance for the selected variables.

Results

Of the 532 patients evaluated, 180 were discharged: female (16.92%), with a central venous catheter (23.68%), with a bladder catheter (26.13%), and with an average of 8.46- and 23.65-days using bladder catheter and submitted to mechanical ventilation, respectively. In addition, the chances of discharge increase by 14% for each additional day in the hospital, by 136% for female patients, 716% when there is no bladder catheter, and 737% when no central venous catheter is used. However, the chances of discharge decrease by 3% for each additional year of age and by 9% for each other day of mechanical ventilation. The performance of the training data presented a balanced accuracy of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.74, specificity of 0.88, and the kappa value was 0.64. The test performance had a balanced accuracy of 0.85, sensitivity 0.75, specificity 0.95, and kappa value of 0.73. The McNemar test found that there were no significant differences in the error rates in the training and test data, suggesting good classification. This work showed that female, the absence of a central venous catheter and bladder catheter, shorter mechanical ventilation, and bladder catheter duration were associated with a greater chance of hospital discharge. These results may help develop measures that lead to a good prognosis for the patient.

COVID-19 mortality prediction in Hungarian ICU settings implementing random forest algorithm

The emergence of newer SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) profoundly changed the ICU demography; this shift in the virus's genotype and its correlation to lethality in the ICUs is still not fully investigated. We aimed to survey ICU patients' clinical and laboratory parameters in correlation with SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes to lethality. 503 COVID-19 ICU patients were included in our study beginning in January 2021 through November 2022 in Hungary. Furthermore, we implemented random forest (RF) as a potential predictor regarding SARS-CoV-2 lethality among 649 ICU patients in two ICU centers. Survival analysis and comparison of hypertension (HT), diabetes mellitus (DM), and vaccination effects were conducted. Logistic regression identified DM as a significant mortality risk factor (OR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.06-2.29, p = 0.025), while HT showed marginal significance. Additionally, vaccination demonstrated protection against mortality (p = 0.028). RF detected lethality with 81.42% accuracy (95% CI 73.01-88.11%, [AUC]: 91.6%), key predictors being PaO2/FiO2 ratio, lymphocyte count, and chest Computed Tomography Severity Score (CTSS). Although a smaller number of patients require ICU treatment among Omicron cases, the likelihood of survival has not proportionately increased for those who are admitted to the ICU. In conclusion, our RF model supports more effective clinical decision-making among ICU COVID-19 patients.

21st century critical care medicine: An overview

Critical care medicine in the 21st century has witnessed remarkable advancements that have significantly improved patient outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs). This abstract provides a concise summary of the latest developments in critical care, highlighting key areas of innovation. Recent advancements in critical care include Precision Medicine: Tailoring treatments based on individual patient characteristics, genomics, and biomarkers to enhance the effectiveness of therapies. The objective is to describe the recent advancements in Critical Care Medicine. Telemedicine: The integration of telehealth technologies for remote patient monitoring and consultation, facilitating timely interventions. Artificial intelligence (AI): AI-driven tools for early disease detection, predictive analytics, and treatment optimization, enhancing clinical decision-making. Organ Support: Advanced life support systems, such as Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation and Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy provide better organ support. Infection Control: Innovative infection control measures to combat emerging pathogens and reduce healthcare-associated infections. Ventilation Strategies: Precision ventilation modes and lung-protective strategies to minimize ventilator-induced lung injury. Sepsis Management: Early recognition and aggressive management of sepsis with tailored interventions. Patient-Centered Care: A shift towards patient-centered care focusing on psychological and emotional well-being in addition to medical needs. We conducted a thorough literature search on PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus using our tailored strategy, incorporating keywords such as critical care, telemedicine, and sepsis management. A total of 125 articles meeting our criteria were included for qualitative synthesis. To ensure reliability, we focused only on articles published in the English language within the last two decades, excluding animal studies, in vitro/molecular studies, and non-original data like editorials, letters, protocols, and conference abstracts. These advancements reflect a dynamic landscape in critical care medicine, where technology, research, and patient-centered approaches converge to improve the quality of care and save lives in ICUs. The future of critical care promises even more innovative solutions to meet the evolving challenges of modern medicine.

Identification of Factors Associated with Mortality in the Elderly Population with SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results from a Longitudinal Observational Study from Romania

The progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection has been linked to a hospitalization rate of 20%. The susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 infection increases with age, resulting in severe and atypical clinical forms of the disease. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the elderly population can be attributed to several factors, including the overexpression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, immunosenescence, and alterations in the intestinal microbiota that facilitate the cytokine storm. In light of these observations, we conducted a retrospective analysis based on prospectively collected data between 23 December 2021 and 30 April 2022 (the fourth wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection). We analyzed patients aged over 60 years who were hospitalized in a county hospital in Romania. The primary objective of our study was to assess the risk factors for an unfavorable outcome, while the secondary objective was to assess the clinical and baseline characteristics of the enrolled patients. We included 287 cases with a complete electronic medical record from this available cohort of patients. We aimed to retrospectively evaluate a group of 127 patients that progressed, unfortunately, toward an unfavorable outcome versus 160 patients with a favorable outcome. We used the Combined Ordinal Scale of Severity that combines the WHO ordinal scale and the degrees of inflammation to assess the severity of the patients at the time of the initial assessment. The age group between 70 and 79 years had the highest percentage, accounting for 48.0%-61 patients, of the deceased patients. We noted statistically significant differences between groups related to other cardiovascular diseases, nutritional status, hematological diseases, other neurological/mental or digestive disorders, and other comorbidities. Regarding the nutritional status of the patients, there was a statistically significant unfavorable outcome for all the age groups and the patients with a BMI > 30 kg/m2, p = 0.004. The presence of these factors was associated with an unfavorable outcome. Our results indicate that with the presence of cough, there was a statistically significant favorable outcome in the age group over 80 years, p ≤ 0.049. In terms of the presence of dyspnea in all groups of patients, it was associated with an unfavorable outcome, p ≤ 0.001. In our study, we analyzed laboratory test results to assess the level of inflammation across various WHO categories, focusing on the outcome groups determined by the average values of specific biomarkers. Our findings show that, with the exception of IL-6, all other biomarkers tend to rise progressively with the severity of the disease. Moreover, these biomarkers are significantly higher in patients experiencing adverse outcomes. The differences among severity categories and the outcome group are highly significant (p-values < 0.001). CART algorithm revealed a specific cut-off point for the WHO ordinal scale of 4 to stand out as an important reference value for patients at a high risk of developing critical forms of COVID-19. The high death rate can be attributed to proinflammatory status, hormonal changes, nutritional and vitamin D deficiencies, comorbidities, and atypical clinical pictures.

Utilizing decision tree machine model to map dental students' preferred learning styles with suitable instructional strategies

BACKGROUND

Growing demand for student-centered learning (SCL) has been observed in higher education settings including dentistry. However, application of SCL in dental education is limited. Hence, this study aimed to facilitate SCL application in dentistry utilising a decision tree machine learning (ML) technique to map dental students' preferred learning styles (LS) with suitable instructional strategies (IS) as a promising approach to develop an IS recommender tool for dental students.

METHODS

A total of 255 dental students in Universiti Malaya completed the modified Index of Learning Styles (m-ILS) questionnaire containing 44 items which classified them into their respective LS. The collected data, referred to as dataset, was used in a decision tree supervised learning to automate the mapping of students' learning styles with the most suitable IS. The accuracy of the ML-empowered IS recommender tool was then evaluated.

RESULTS

The application of a decision tree model in the automation process of the mapping between LS (input) and IS (target output) was able to instantly generate the list of suitable instructional strategies for each dental student. The IS recommender tool demonstrated perfect precision and recall for overall model accuracy, suggesting a good sensitivity and specificity in mapping LS with IS.

CONCLUSION

The decision tree ML empowered IS recommender tool was proven to be accurate at matching dental students' learning styles with the relevant instructional strategies. This tool provides a workable path to planning student-centered lessons or modules that potentially will enhance the learning experience of the students.

Predicting Nurse Turnover for Highly Imbalanced Data Using the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique and Machine Learning Algorithms

Predicting nurse turnover is a growing challenge within the healthcare sector, profoundly impacting healthcare quality and the nursing profession. This study employs the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to address class imbalance issues in the 2018 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses dataset and predict nurse turnover using machine learning algorithms. Four machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression, random forests, decision tree, and extreme gradient boosting, were applied to the SMOTE-enhanced dataset. The data were split into 80% training and 20% validation sets. Eighteen carefully selected variables from the database served as predictive features, and the machine learning model identified age, working hours, electric health record/electronic medical record, individual income, and job type as important features concerning nurse turnover. The study includes a performance comparison based on accuracy, precision, recall (sensitivity), F1-score, and AUC. In summary, the results demonstrate that SMOTE-enhanced random forests exhibit the most robust predictive power in the classical approach (with all 18 predictive variables) and an optimized approach (utilizing eight key predictive variables). Extreme gradient boosting, decision tree, and logistic regression follow in performance. Notably, age emerges as the most influential factor in nurse turnover, with working hours, electric health record/electronic medical record usability, individual income, and region also playing significant roles. This research offers valuable insights for healthcare researchers and stakeholders, aiding in selecting suitable machine learning algorithms for nurse turnover prediction.

Ensemble model for predicting chronic non-communicable diseases using Latin square extraction and fuzzy-artificial neural networks from 2013 to 2019

Background

The presented study tracks the increase or decrease in the prevalence of seventeen different chronic non-communicable diseases in Serbia. This analysis considers factors such as region, age, and gender and is based on data from two national cross-sectional studies conducted in 2013 and 2019. The research aims to accurately identify the regions with the highest percentage of affected individuals, as well as their respective age and gender groups. The ultimate goal is to facilitate organized, free preventive screenings for these population categories within a very short time-frame in the future.

Materials and methods

The study analyzed two cross-sectional studies conducted between 2013 and 2019, using data obtained from the Institute of Public Health of Serbia. Both studies involved a total of 27801 participants. The study compared the performance of Decision Tree and Support Vector Regressor models with artificial neural network (ANN) models that employed two encoding functions. The new methodology for the ANN-L36 model was based on artificial neural networks constructed using a Latin square (L36) design, incorporating Taguchi's robust design optimization.

Results

The results of the analysis from three different models have shown that cardiovascular diseases are the most prevalent illnesses among the population in Serbia, with hypertension as the leading condition in all regions, particularly among individuals aged 64 to 75 years, and more prevalent among females. In 2019, there was a decrease in the percentage of the leading disease, hypertension, compared to 2013, with a decrease from 34.0% to 32.2%. The ANN-L36 model with Fuzzy encoding function demonstrated the highest precision, achieving the smallest relative error of 0.1%.

Conclusion

To date, no studies have been conducted at the national level in Serbia to comprehensively track and identify chronic diseases in the manner proposed by this study. The model presented in this research will be implemented in practice and is set to significantly contribute to the future healthcare framework in Serbia, shaping and advancing the approach towards addressing these conditions. Furthermore, experimental evidence has shown that Taguchi's optimization approach yields the best results for identifying various chronic non-communicable diseases.

Machine learning algorithms for predicting determinants of COVID-19 mortality in South Africa

Background

COVID-19 has strained healthcare resources, necessitating efficient prognostication to triage patients effectively. This study quantified COVID-19 risk factors and predicted COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in South Africa based on machine learning algorithms.

Methods

Data for this study were obtained from 392 COVID-19 ICU patients enrolled between 26 March 2020 and 10 February 2021. We used an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF) to predict mortality among ICU patients and a semi-parametric logistic regression with nine covariates, including a grouping variable based on K-means clustering. Further evaluation of the algorithms was performed using sensitivity, accuracy, specificity, and Cohen's K statistics.

Results

From the semi-parametric logistic regression and ANN variable importance, age, gender, cluster, presence of severe symptoms, being on the ventilator, and comorbidities of asthma significantly contributed to ICU death. In particular, the odds of mortality were six times higher among asthmatic patients than non-asthmatic patients. In univariable and multivariate regression, advanced age, PF1 and 2, FiO2, severe symptoms, asthma, oxygen saturation, and cluster 4 were strongly predictive of mortality. The RF model revealed that intubation status, age, cluster, diabetes, and hypertension were the top five significant predictors of mortality. The ANN performed well with an accuracy of 71%, a precision of 83%, an F1 score of 100%, Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) score of 100%, and a recall of 88%. In addition, Cohen's k-value of 0.75 verified the most extreme discriminative power of the ANN. In comparison, the RF model provided a 76% recall, an 87% precision, and a 65% MCC.

Conclusion

Based on the findings, we can conclude that both ANN and RF can predict COVID-19 mortality in the ICU with accuracy. The proposed models accurately predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients after diagnosis. The models can be used to prioritize COVID-19 patients with a high mortality risk in resource-constrained ICUs.

Predictive Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Algorithms on Electronic Health Record Data: Advantages and Challenges

The rapid adoption of electronic health record (EHR) systems in US hospitals from 2008 to 2014 produced novel data elements for analysis. Concurrent innovations in computing architecture and machine learning (ML) algorithms have made rapid consumption of health data feasible and a powerful engine for clinical innovation. In critical care research, the net convergence of these trends has resulted in an exponential increase in outcome prediction research. In the following article, we explore the history of outcome prediction in the intensive care unit (ICU), the growing use of EHR data, and the rise of artificial intelligence and ML (AI) in critical care.

A Multi-Layered GRU Model for COVID-19 Patient Representation and Phenotyping from Large-Scale EHR Data

The unprecedented scale of the COVID-19 pandemic created an alarming shortage of healthcare resources. To enable a more efficient resource allocation and targeted treatment, in this manuscript, we conducted a data-driven study of COVID-19 patients to predict patient outcomes and identify patient phenotypes. Specifically, we developed a multi-layered gated recurrent units-based model, referred to as mGRU-CP, to learn patient embeddings and estimate patient survival probabilities by leveraging their electronic health record (EHR) data in the COVID-19 Research Data Commons. We empirically compared mGRU-CP against four state-of-the-art baseline methods on three sets of patient features. The experimental results demonstrate that mGRU-CP could achieve competitive or superior performance over the baseline methods in all the settings. Our analysis also shows that the learned patient embeddings in mGRU-CP could enable meaningful patient phenotyping to better understand patient mortalities. Our study is significant in understanding patients in the past COVID-19 pandemic, and provides computational tools to predict patient outcomes and inform associated healthcare resource allocation for the future pandemics proactively.

Artificial Intelligence in Intensive Care Medicine: Toward a ChatGPT/GPT-4 Way?

Although intensive care medicine (ICM) is a relatively young discipline, it has rapidly developed into a full-fledged and highly specialized specialty covering several fields of medicine. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in intensive care unit demand and also bring unprecedented development opportunities for this area. Multiple new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) were gradually being applied in this field. In this study, through an online survey, we have summarized the potential uses of ChatGPT/GPT-4 in ICM range from knowledge augmentation, device management, clinical decision-making support, early warning systems, and establishment of intensive care unit (ICU) database.

Our Experience with SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Acute Kidney Injury: Results from a Single-Center Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Renal failure in COVID-19 patients is reportedly related to multiple factors such as a direct SARS-CoV-2 cytopathic effect, cytokine storm, the association of pulmonary and/or cardiovascular lesions, the presence of thrombotic microangiopathy, endothelial damage, or the use of potentially nephrotoxic medications.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 466 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, comparing 233 patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) with 233 patients without AKI in terms of their demographic characteristics, comorbidities, clinical background, laboratory investigations, time of AKI onset, therapy, and outcomes after using univariate analysis and a CART decision-tree approach. The latter was constructed in a reverse manner, starting from the top with the root and branching out until the splitting ceased, interconnecting all the predictors to predict the overall outcome (AKI vs. non-AKI).

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant difference between the clinical form distribution in the two groups, with fewer mild (2 vs. 5) and moderate (54 vs. 133) cases in the AKI group than in the non-AKI group and more severe and critical patients in the AKI cohort (116 vs. 92 and 60 vs. 3). There were four deaths (1.71%) in the non-AKI group and 120 deaths in the AKI group (51.5%) (p-value < 0.001). We noted statistically significant differences between the two study groups in relation to different tissue lesions (LDH), particularly at the pulmonary (CT severity score), hepatic (AST, ALT), and muscular levels (Creatine kinase). In addition, an exacerbated procoagulant and inflammatory profile in the study group was observed. The CART algorithm approach yielded decision paths that helped sort the risk of AKI progression into three categories: the low-risk category (0-40%), the medium-risk category (40-80%), and the high-risk category (>80%). It recognized specific inflammatory and renal biomarker profiles with particular cut-off points for procalcitonin, ferritin, LDH, creatinine, initial urea, and creatinine levels as important predictive factors of AKI outcomes (93.3% overall performance).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed the association between particular risk factors and AKI progression in COVID-19 patients. Diabetes, dyspnea on admission, the need for supplemental oxygen, and admission to the intensive care unit all had a crucial role in producing unfavorable outcomes, with a death rate of more than 50%. Necessary imaging studies (CT scan severity score) and changes in specific biomarker levels (ferritin and C-reactive protein levels) were also noted. These factors should be further investigated in conjunction with the pathophysiological mechanisms of AKI progression in COVID-19 patients.

Machine learning-based mortality prediction models for smoker COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND

The large number of SARS-Cov-2 cases during the COVID-19 global pandemic has burdened healthcare systems and created a shortage of resources and services. In recent years, mortality prediction models have shown a potential in alleviating this issue; however, these models are susceptible to biases in specific subpopulations with different risks of mortality, such as patients with prior history of smoking. The current study aims to develop a machine learning-based mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients that have a history of smoking in the Iranian population.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted across six medical centers between 18 and 2020 and 15 March 2022, comprised of 678 CT scans and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients that had a history of smoking. Multiple machine learning models were developed using 10-fold cross-validation. The target variable was in-hospital mortality and input features included patient demographics, levels of care, vital signs, medications, and comorbidities. Two sets of models were developed for at-admission and post-admission predictions. Subsequently, the top five prediction models were selected from at-admission models and post-admission models and their probabilities were calibrated.

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality rate for smoker COVID-19 patients was 20.1%. For "at admission" models, the best-calibrated model was XGBoost which yielded an accuracy of 87.5% and F₁ score of 86.2%. For the "post-admission" models, XGBoost also outperformed the rest with an accuracy of 90.5% and F₁ score of 89.9%. Active smoking was among the most important features in patients' mortality prediction.

CONCLUSION

Our machine learning-based mortality prediction models have the potential to be adapted for improving the management of smoker COVID-19 patients and predicting patients' chance of survival.

Anesthesiologists' Perspective on the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Ultrasound-Guided Regional Anaesthesia in Terms of Medical Ethics and Medical Education: A Survey Study

OBJECTIVE

Controversy exists around the world as experts disagree on what artificial intelligence will imply for humanity in the future. Medical experts are starting to share perspectives on artificial intelligence with ethical and legal concerns appearing to prevail. The purpose of this study was to determine how anesthesiology and reanimation specialists in Turkey perceive the use of artificial intelligence in ultrasound-guided regional anesthetic applications in terms of medical ethics and education, as well as their perspectives on potential ethical issues.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This descriptive and cross-sectional survey was conducted across Turkey between July 1 and August 31. Data were collected through an online questionnaire distributed by national associations and social media platforms. The questionnaire included questions about the descriptive features of the participants and the possible ethical problems that may be encountered in the use of artificial intelligence in regional anesthesia and 20 statements that were requested to be evaluated.

RESULTS

The average age of the 285 anesthesiologists who took part in the study was 42.00 ± 7.51, 144 of them were male, the average years spent in the field was 10.95 ± 7.15 years, 59.3% were involved in resident training, and 74.7% habitually used ultrasound guidance regional anesthetic applications. Of the participants, 80% thought artificial intelligence would benefit patients, 86.7% thought it would benefit resident training, 81.4% thought it would benefit post-graduate medical education, and 80.7% thought it would decrease complications in practice. There will be no ethical issues if sonographic data are captured anonymously, according to 78.25%, while 67% are concerned about who will be held accountable for inaccuracies.

CONCLUSION

The majority of anesthetists believe that using artificial intelligence in regional anesthetic applications will decrease complications. Although ethical concerns about privacy and data governance are low, participants do have ethical worries about "accountability for errors."

Predicting the mortality of patients with Covid-19: A machine learning approach

Background and Aims

Infection with Covid-19 disease can lead to mortality in a short time. Early prediction of the mortality during an epidemic disease can save patients' lives through taking timely and necessary care interventions. Therefore, predicting the mortality of patients with Covid-19 using machine learning techniques can be effective in reducing mortality rate in Covid-19. The aim of this study is to compare four machine-learning algorithm for predicting mortality in Covid-19 disease.

Methods

The data of this study were collected from hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in five hospitals settings in Tehran (Iran). Database contained 4120 records, about 25% of which belonged to patients who died due to Covid-19. Each record contained 38 variables. Four machine-learning techniques, including random forest (RF), regression logistic (RL), gradient boosting tree (GBT), and support vector machine (SVM) were used in modeling.

Results

GBT model presented higher performance compared to other models (accuracy 70%, sensitivity 77%, specificity 69%, and the ROC area under the curve 0.857). RF, RL, and SVM models with the ROC area under curve 0.836, 0.818, and 0.794 were in the second and third places.

Conclusion

Considering the combination of multiple influential factors affecting death Covid-19 can help in early prediction and providing a better care plan. In addition, using different modeling on data can be useful for physician in providing appropriate care.

Tocilizumab Outcomes in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients Admitted to the ICU and the Role of Non-Tocilizumab COVID-19-Specific Medical Therapeutics

Background: Tocilizumab is a monoclonal antibody proposed to manage cytokine release syndrome (CRS) associated with severe COVID-19. Previously published reports have shown that tocilizumab may improve the clinical outcomes of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU. However, no precise data about the role of other medical therapeutics concurrently used for COVID-19 on this outcome have been published. Objectives: We aimed to compare the overall outcome of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU who received tocilizumab with the outcome of matched patients who did not receive tocilizumab while controlling for other confounders, including medical therapeutics for critically ill patients admitted to ICUs. Methods: A prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study was conducted among critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU of 14 hospitals in Saudi Arabia between 1 March 2020, and October 31, 2020. Propensity-score matching was utilized to compare patients who received tocilizumab to patients who did not. In addition, the log-rank test was used to compare the 28 day hospital survival of patients who received tocilizumab with those who did not. Then, a multivariate logistic regression analysis of the matched groups was performed to evaluate the impact of the remaining concurrent medical therapeutics that could not be excluded via matching 28 day hospital survival rates. The primary outcome measure was patients’ overall 28 day hospital survival, and the secondary outcomes were ICU length of stay and ICU survival to hospital discharge. Results: A total of 1470 unmatched patients were included, of whom 426 received tocilizumab. The total number of propensity-matched patients was 1278. Overall, 28 day hospital survival revealed a significant difference between the unmatched non-tocilizumab group (586; 56.1%) and the tocilizumab group (269; 63.1%) (p-value = 0.016), and this difference increased even more in the propensity-matched analysis between the non-tocilizumab group (466.7; 54.6%) and the tocilizumab group (269; 63.1%) (p-value = 0.005). The matching model successfully matched the two groups’ common medical therapeutics used to treat COVID-19. Two medical therapeutics remained significantly different, favoring the tocilizumab group. A multivariate logistic regression was performed for the 28 day hospital survival in the propensity-matched patients. It showed that neither steroids (OR: 1.07 (95% CI: 0.75–1.53)) (p = 0.697) nor favipiravir (OR: 1.08 (95% CI: 0.61–1.9)) (p = 0.799) remained as a predictor for an increase in 28 day survival. Conclusion: The tocilizumab treatment in critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU improved the overall 28 day hospital survival, which might not be influenced by the concurrent use of other COVID-19 medical therapeutics, although further research is needed to confirm this.

The use of natural language processing in palliative care research: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Natural language processing has been increasingly used in palliative care research over the last 5 years for its versatility and accuracy.

AIM

To evaluate and characterize natural language processing use in palliative care research, including the most commonly used natural language processing software and computational methods, data sources, trends in natural language processing use over time, and palliative care topics addressed.

DESIGN

A scoping review using the framework by Arksey and O'Malley and the updated recommendations proposed by Levac et al. was conducted.

SOURCES

PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, and IEEE Xplore databases were searched for palliative care studies that utilized natural language processing tools. Data on study characteristics and natural language processing instruments used were collected and relevant palliative care topics were identified.

RESULTS

197 relevant references were identified. Of these, 82 were included after full-text review. Studies were published in 48 different journals from 2007 to 2022. The average sample size was 21,541 (median 435). Thirty-two different natural language processing software and 33 machine-learning methods were identified. Nine main sources for data processing and 15 main palliative care topics across the included studies were identified. The most frequent topic was mortality and prognosis prediction. We also identified a trend where natural language processing was frequently used in analyzing clinical serious illness conversations extracted from audio recordings.

CONCLUSIONS

We found 82 papers on palliative care using natural language processing methods for a wide-range of topics and sources of data that could expand the use of this methodology. We encourage researchers to consider incorporating this cutting-edge research methodology in future studies to improve published palliative care data.

Prediction of HELLP Syndrome Severity Using Machine Learning Algorithms-Results from a Retrospective Study

(1) Background: HELLP (hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelets) syndrome is a rare and life-threatening complication of preeclampsia. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the predictive performances of four machine learning-based models for the prediction of HELLP syndrome, and its subtypes according to the Mississippi classification; (2) Methods: This retrospective case-control study evaluated pregnancies that occurred in women who attended a tertiary maternity hospital in Romania between January 2007 and December 2021. The patients' clinical and paraclinical characteristics were included in four machine learning-based models: decision tree (DT), naïve Bayes (NB), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and random forest (RF), and their predictive performance were assessed; (3) Results: Our results showed that HELLP syndrome was best predicted by RF (accuracy: 89.4%) and NB (accuracy: 86.9%) models, while DT (accuracy: 91%) and KNN (accuracy: 87.1%) models had the highest performance when used to predict class 1 HELLP syndrome. The predictive performance of these models was modest for class 2 and 3 of HELLP syndrome, with accuracies ranging from 65.2% and 83.8%; (4) Conclusions: The machine learning-based models could be useful tools for predicting HELLP syndrome, and its most severe form-class 1.

Comorbid Asthma Increased the Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in Asia: A Meta-Analysis

We aimed to explore the influence of comorbid asthma on the risk for mortality among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Asia by using a meta-analysis. Electronic databases were systematically searched for eligible studies. The pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated by using a random-effect model. An inconsistency index (I2) was utilized to assess the statistical heterogeneity. A total of 103 eligible studies with 198,078 COVID-19 patients were enrolled in the meta-analysis; our results demonstrated that comorbid asthma was significantly related to an increased risk for COVID-19 mortality in Asia (pooled OR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20−1.68; I2 = 70%, p < 0.01). Subgroup analyses by the proportion of males, setting, and sample sizes generated consistent findings. Meta-regression indicated that male proportion might be the possible sources of heterogeneity. A sensitivity analysis exhibited the reliability and stability of the overall results. Both Begg’s analysis (p = 0.835) and Egger’s analysis (p = 0.847) revealed that publication bias might not exist. In conclusion, COVID-19 patients with comorbid asthma might bear a higher risk for mortality in Asia, at least among non-elderly individuals.

A Catalogue of Machine Learning Algorithms for Healthcare Risk Predictions

Extracting useful knowledge from proper data analysis is a very challenging task for efficient and timely decision-making. To achieve this, there exist a plethora of machine learning (ML) algorithms, while, especially in healthcare, this complexity increases due to the domain's requirements for analytics-based risk predictions. This manuscript proposes a data analysis mechanism experimented in diverse healthcare scenarios, towards constructing a catalogue of the most efficient ML algorithms to be used depending on the healthcare scenario's requirements and datasets, for efficiently predicting the onset of a disease. To this context, seven (7) different ML algorithms (Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Neural Networks, Stochastic Gradient Descent) have been executed on top of diverse healthcare scenarios (stroke, COVID-19, diabetes, breast cancer, kidney disease, heart failure). Based on a variety of performance metrics (accuracy, recall, precision, F1-score, specificity, confusion matrix), it has been identified that a sub-set of ML algorithms are more efficient for timely predictions under specific healthcare scenarios, and that is why the envisioned ML catalogue prioritizes the ML algorithms to be used, depending on the scenarios' nature and needed metrics. Further evaluation must be performed considering additional scenarios, involving state-of-the-art techniques (e.g., cloud deployment, federated ML) for improving the mechanism's efficiency.

Status Forecasting Based on the Baseline Information Using Logistic Regression

In the status forecasting problem, classification models such as logistic regression with input variables such as physiological, diagnostic, and treatment variables are typical ways of modeling. However, the parameter value and model performance differ among individuals with different baseline information. To cope with these difficulties, a subgroup analysis is conducted, in which models' ANOVA and rpart are proposed to explore the influence of baseline information on the parameters and model performance. The results show that the logistic regression model achieves satisfactory performance, which is generally higher than 0.95 in AUC and around 0.9 in F1 and balanced accuracy. The subgroup analysis presents the prior parameter values for monitoring variables including SpO2, milrinone, non-opioid analgesics and dobutamine. The proposed method can be used to explore variables that are and are not medically related to the baseline variables.

Using machine learning in prediction of ICU admission, mortality, and length of stay in the early stage of admission of COVID-19 patients

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has affected health systems across the world. Especially, Intensive Care Units (ICUs) have played a pivotal role in the treatment of critically-ill patients. At the same time however, the increasing number of admissions due to the vast prevalence of the virus have caused several problems for ICU wards such as overburdening of staff and shortages of medical resources. These issues might have affected the quality of healthcare services provided directly impacting a patient's survival. The objective of this research is to leverage Machine Learning (ML) on hospital data in order to support hospital managers and practitioners with the treatment of COVID-19 patients. This is accomplished by providing more detailed inference about a patient's likelihood of ICU admission, mortality and in case of hospitalization the length of stay (LOS). In this pursuit, the outcome variables are in three separate models predicted by five different ML algorithms: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), bagged-CART (b-CART), and LogitBoost (LB). With the exception of KNN, the studied models show good predictive capabilities when evaluating relevant accuracy scores, such as area under the curve. By implementing an ensemble stacking approach (either a Neural Net or a General Linear Model) on top of the aforementioned ML algorithms the performance is further boosted. Ultimately, for the prediction of admission to the ICU, the ensemble stacking via a Neural Net achieved the best result with an accuracy of over 95%. For mortality at the ICU, the vanilla XGB performed slightly better (1% difference with the meta-model). To predict large length of stays both ensemble stacking approaches yield comparable results. Besides it direct implications for managing COVID-19 patients, the approach presented serves as an example how data can be employed in future pandemics or crises.

Decision-Tree-Based Approach for Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment in Immobilized Patients

Applications where data mining tools are used in the fields of medicine and nursing are becoming more and more frequent. Among them, decision trees have been applied to different health data, such as those associated with pressure ulcers. Pressure ulcers represent a health problem with a significant impact on the morbidity and mortality of immobilized patients and on the quality of life of affected people and their families. Nurses provide comprehensive care to immobilized patients. This fact results in an increased workload that can be a risk factor for the development of serious health problems. Healthcare work with evidence-based practice with an objective criterion for a nursing professional is an essential addition for the application of preventive measures. In this work, two ways for conducting a pressure ulcer risk assessment based on a decision tree approach are provided. The first way is based on the activity and mobility characteristics of the Braden scale, whilst the second way is based on the activity, mobility and skin moisture characteristics. The results provided in this study endow nursing professionals with a foundation in relation to the use of their experience and objective criteria for quick decision making regarding the risk of a patient to develop a pressure ulcer.