The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis which has been reported across Africa including the northernmost edge, South West Indian Ocean islands, and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus is responsible for high abortion rates and mortality in young ruminants, with economic impacts in affected countries. To date, RVF epidemiological mechanisms are not fully understood, due to the multiplicity of implicated vertebrate hosts, vectors, and ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models are useful tools to develop our understanding of complex systems, and mechanistic models are particularly suited to data-scarce settings. Here, we performed a systematic review of mechanistic models studying RVF, to explore their diversity and their contribution to the understanding of this disease epidemiology. Researching Pubmed and Scopus databases (October 2021), we eventually selected 48 papers, presenting overall 49 different models with numerical application to RVF. We categorized models as theoretical, applied, or grey, depending on whether they represented a specific geographical context or not, and whether they relied on an extensive use of data. We discussed their contributions to the understanding of RVF epidemiology, and highlighted that theoretical and applied models are used differently yet meet common objectives. Through the examination of model features, we identified research questions left unexplored across scales, such as the role of animal mobility, as well as the relative contributions of host and vector species to transmission. Importantly, we noted a substantial lack of justification when choosing a functional form for the force of infection. Overall, we showed a great diversity in RVF models, leading to important progress in our comprehension of epidemiological mechanisms. To go further, data gaps must be filled, and modelers need to improve their code accessibility.

Mechanisms of inter-epidemic maintenance of Rift Valley fever phlebovirus

Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused substantial epidemics throughout Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula. The virus can cause severe disease in livestock and humans and therefore the control and prevention of viral outbreaks is of utmost importance. The epidemiology of RVFV has some particular characteristics. Unexpected and significant epidemics have been observed in spatially and temporally divergent patterns across the African continent. Sudden epidemics in previously unaffected areas are followed by periods of long-term apparent absence of virus and sudden, unpredictable reoccurrence in disparate regions. Therefore, the elucidation of underlying mechanisms of viral maintenance is one of the largest gaps in the knowledge of RVFV ecology. It remains unknown whether the virus needs to be reintroduced before RVF outbreaks can occur, or if unperceived viral circulation in local vertebrates or mosquitoes is sufficient for maintenance of the virus. To gain insight into these knowledge gaps, we here review existing data that describe potential mechanisms of RVFV maintenance, as well as molecular and serological studies in endemic and non-endemic areas that provide evidence of an inter- or pre-epidemic virus presence. Basic and country-specific mechanisms of RVFV introduction into non-endemic countries are summarized and an overview of studies using mathematical modeling of RVFV persistence is given.

A Microsatellite Multiplex Assay for Profiling Pig DNA in Mosquito Bloodmeals

Genetic profiling has been used to link mosquito bloodmeals to the individual humans, but this analysis has not been done for other mammalian bloodmeals. In this study, we describe a microsatellite-based method for identifying individual pigs in mosquito bloodmeals based on their unique multilocus genotypes. Eleven tetranucleotide microsatellites and a sex-specific marker were selected based on Smith-Waterman DNA sequence alignment scores from the reference genome and primers were designed with features that reduce primer dimers, promote complete adenylation, and enable fluorescent labeling of amplicons. A multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was optimized and validated by analyzing DNA of individual pigs from several nuclear families and breeds before it was used to analyze genomic DNA of pig-derived mosquito bloodmeals from villages of Papua New Guinea. Population analysis of the nuclear families showed high expected and observed heterozygosity. The probability of observing two unrelated or sibling individuals sharing the same genotype at a single microsatellite locus or a combination of loci was vanishingly low. Samples had unique genotypes and gender was accurately predicted. Analysis of 129 pig bloodmeals identified 19 unique genotypes, which varied greatly in frequency in the mosquito bloodmeal samples. The high allelic diversity of the microsatellite loci and low probability of false attribution of identity show that this genotyping method reliably distinguishes distantly and closely related pigs and can be used to identify individual pigs from genotyped mosquito bloodmeals.

Moving south: effects of water temperatures on the larval development of invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) in cool-temperate Australia

The distributional limits of many ectothermic species are set by thermal tolerances of early‐developmental stages in the life history; embryos and larvae often are less able to buffer environmental variation than are conspecific adults. In pond‐breeding amphibians, for example, cold water may constrain viability of eggs and larvae, even if adults can find suitable thermal conditions in terrestrial niches. Invasive species provide robust model systems for exploring these questions, because we can quantify thermal challenges at the expanding range edge (from field surveys) and larval responses to thermal conditions (in the laboratory). Our studies on invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) at the southern (cool‐climate) edge of their expanding range in Australia show that available ponds often average around 20°C during the breeding period, 10°C lower than in many areas of the toads’ native range, or in the Australian tropics. Our laboratory experiments showed that cane toad eggs and larvae cannot develop successfully at 16°C, but hatching success and larval survival rates were higher at 20°C than in warmer conditions. Lower temperatures slowed growth rates, increasing the duration of tadpole life, but also increased metamorph body mass. Water temperature also influenced metamorph body shape (high temperatures reduced relative limb length, head width, and body mass) and locomotor performance (increased speed from intermediate temperatures, longer hops from high temperatures). In combination with previous studies, our data suggest that lower water temperatures may enhance rather than reduce recruitment of cane toads, at least in areas where pond temperatures reach or exceed 20°C. That condition is fulfilled over a wide area of southern Australia, suggesting that the continuing expansion of this invasive species is unlikely to be curtailed by the impacts of relatively low water temperatures on the viability of early life‐history stages.