Hip fracture mortality: Predictive models

Performance of the Nottingham hip fracture score (NHFS) as a predictor of 30-day mortality after proximal femur fracture in an older people Brazilian cohort

Perioperative risk assessment helps inform clinical practice for older people with hip fractures. This is a cohort study, where perioperative risk screening, including NHFS, was performed at admission, followed by an evaluation of 30-day outcomes. 503 patients were included, 73% female, 79.4 ± 9.3 years old; 58% presented extracapsular and 42% intracapsular fractures, with a 30-day mortality of 9%. The NHFS was higher in the patients who died at 5.6 ± 1.1 compared to survivals at 4.3 ± 1.5 (p-value < 0.001). NHFS > 4 was associated with 30-day mortality observed by Cox regression adjusted by fracture type: HR 4.55 (95% CI 2.10-9.82) (p-value < 0.001) and Kaplan-Meyer Curve (HR 3.94; 95% CI 2.19-7.07; p-value < 0.001). ROC curve showed the accuracy of NHFS in explaining 30-day mortality (AUC 0.74; 95% CI 0.67-0.81). Complications were higher among patients with NHFS > 4. The performance of NHFS was better than the traditional perioperative risk ASA score. Therefore, NHFS can be implemented in real-world clinical practice to estimate the 30-day mortality risk for hip fracture in older patients in Brazil. NHFS > 4 is critical for 30-day mortality and complications; this cutoff helps inform clinical practice. The present study might motivate other centers to consider NHFS in their perioperative risk assessment routine.

Associations Between Upper Extremity Activity Capacity and Strength and Post-Operative Ambulation After Geriatric Hip Fracture: A Prospective Controlled Study

Background/Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the effect of upper extremity activity capacity and hand grip strength on early post-operative ambulation in geriatric patients undergoing hip arthroplasty for hip fracture. Methods: This study included patients over 70 years of age who underwent cementless bipolar hemiarthroplasty for geriatric femoral neck fracture to form a homogeneous cohort. This prospective study was terminated when the number of patients reached 102 after power analysis. Demographic data, cumulative ambulation scores (CASs), quick disabilities of the arm, shoulder, and hand (QDASH) scores, and hand grip strength (HGS) were recorded both pre-operatively and post-operatively (3rd and 30th days). The presence of a linear relationship between the numerical and ordinal variables was analyzed using correlation analysis. Results: The mean age of the patients was 78.8 years (range: 70-93 years). There was a positive correlation between the HGS and CAS (r = 0.717, p < 0.05). A negative correlation was found between HGS, age (r = -0.529, p < 0.05), and QDASH scores (r = -0.408, p < 0.05). There was a negative correlation between the QDASH score, HGS, and CAS, and a positive correlation between the QDASH score and age (p < 0.05). Conclusions: This study showed a direct relationship between post-operative ambulation capacity, upper extremity activity capacity, and hand grip strength in geriatric hip fractures. While older age negatively affects this capacity, upper extremity activity capacity and hand grip strength positively affect it.

A Look Into How the "Blue Zone" Lifestyle May Affect Patients' Lives Before and After Hip Fracture: A Propensity-Matched Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Hip fractures are life-changing injuries with associated one-year mortality up to 30%. Five locations in the world have been termed "blue zones," where the longevity of the population is markedly higher than that of surrounding areas and there are 10 times more centenarians. The United States has one blue zone (Loma Linda, California), which is believed to be because of the lifestyle of the Seventh-day Adventist population living there. We hypothesized that patients from the blue zone experience low-energy, frailty-driven, osteoporotic hip fractures later in life and an increased postinjury longevity relative to non-blue zone control subjects.

METHODS

A review of patients treated for hip fracture between January 2010 and August 2020 from a single institution was conducted. Demographic data were collected, and the end point of mortality was assessed using death registry information, queried in April 2024. Groups were divided into blue zone and non-blue zone. Statistical analysis was conducted with P < 0.05 considered significant.

RESULTS

Complete data were available for 1,032 patients. The blue zone cohort sustained low-energy hip fractures 12 years later in life (83.2 versus 71.1, P < 0.01). Propensity score matching was used to account for this difference. After propensity score matching, age, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, surgery performed, sex, mechanism, ethnicity, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CHF, chronic kidney disease grade, dementia, surgical time, and drug/tobacco/marijuana use were similar between groups. Blue zone patients had lower mortality at both 1 and 2 years postoperatively (12% versus 24%, P = 0.03 and 20% versus 33%, P = 0.03, respectively), had more hypertension (76% versus 62%, P = 0.03), reported lower alcohol use (7% versus 20%, P < 0.01), and included more Seventh-day Adventists (64% versus 15%, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The blue zone lifestyle affected the onset of frailty and delayed osteoporotic hip fracture by 12 years in this propensity-matched cohort study. Postoperative mortality was also markedly lower in the blue zone cohort.

Combined nutritional status and activities of daily living disability is associated with one-year mortality after hip fracture surgery for geriatric patients: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to explore the association combined nutritional status and activities of daily living disability with all-cause mortality of older adults with hip fracture in the first year after hospitalization.

METHODS

This is a single-center retrospective cohort study in older adults with hip fracture patients. Clinical data and laboratory results were collected from electronic medical record system of our hospital (2014-2021). The endpoint of this study was all-cause mortality in the first year after hospitalization.

RESULTS

A total of 303 older adults were enrolled and all-cause mortality was 21.8%. The study population was categorized by CONUT score. Patients in CONUT score 5-12 had a higher age, ASA status, CRP and creatinine level, more patients with history of fracture, pneumonia and delirium, meanwhile, lower BMI and ADL score, lower hemoglobin, lymphocyte, total protein, albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol and one year survival than those in CONUT score 0-4 (all P < 0.05). Multivariable Cox analysis showed that BMI, ADL score and CONUT score were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality of hip fracture in older adults (HR (95% CI):2.808(1.638, 4.814), P < 0.001; 2.862(1.637, 5.003), P < 0.001; 2.322(1.236, 4.359), P = 0.009, respectively). More importantly, the combined index of CONUT and ADL score had the best predictive performance based on ROC curve (AUC 0.785, 95% CI: 0.734-0.830, P < 0.0001). Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all-cause mortality showed that patients with CONUT score increase and ADL score impairment had a higher mortality rate at 1 year compared to CONUT score decrease and ADL score well (Log Rank χ2 = 45.717, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Combined CONUT and ADL score is associated with one-year mortality after hip fracture surgery for geriatric patients.

Demographic, functional and clinical characteristics in hip fracture patients according to mental status of the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry

OBJECTIVE

To describe the differences according to mental status at admission on the care process and 30-day outcomes in hip fracture patients, mainly regarding the use of rehabilitation resources and anti-osteoporotic medication, by analysing data from the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry (RNFC, "Registro Nacional de Fracturas de Cadera" in Spanish).

METHODS

We analysed prospectively collected data from a cohort of patients admitted participating in the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry (RNFC) in 76 Spanish hospitals between 2017 and 2019. We classified participants using Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ), defining two groups: patients with ≤2 SPMSQ score and patients with >2 SPMSQ score.

RESULTS

Of 21,254 patients was recorded SPMSQ in 17,242 patients, 9052 were >2 SPMSQ score (52.6%). These were older (87.7 vs. 85.3 years; p<0.001), had worse mobility (no-independent walking ability 26.0% vs. 4.5%; p<0.001) and were more likely to be living in nursing homes (35.3% vs. 9.6%; p<0.001). They were more likely to be treated nonoperatively (3.8% vs. 1.5%; p>0.001), less early mobilisation (57.5% vs. 68.9%; p<0.001) and suffered higher in-hospital mortality (5.2% vs. 2.7%; p<0.001). At discharge, they received less anti-osteoporotic medication (37.9% vs. 48.9%; p<0.001) and returned home less often (29.8%% vs. 51.2%; p<0.001). One month after fracture, patients with >2 SPMSQ score had poorer mobility (no-independent walking ability 44.4% vs. 24.9%; p<0.001) and were newly institutionalised in a nursing home more (12.6% vs. 12.0%; p<0.001) and were more likely to die by one-month post-fracture (9.5% vs. 4.6%; p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

RNFC patients with >2 SPMSQ score were more vulnerable and had poorer outcomes than patients with ≤2 SPMSQ score, suggesting that they need specialised care in-hospital and in the recovery phase.

Emergency department prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture: the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry (RNFC) cohort

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to design and validate a predictive model for 30-day mortality in a cohort of patients from the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry (RNFC) with variables collected at the Emergency Department.

METHODS

Retrospective study of a prospective database of hip fracture patients ⩾75 years old between 1 January 2017 and 30 September 2019. Patient characteristics, type of fracture and osteoprotective medication were collected at the Emergency Department. Univariate analysis compared the results between patients alive and deceased 30 days after hospital discharge. The variables associated with 30-day mortality in the regression analysis were age >85 years, male sex, indoors pre-fracture mobility, dementia, ASA score >3, pathological fracture, and vitamin D intake. A score scale was created with these variables. Discriminative performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration was assessed by applying Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and predicted-to-observed mortality was compared.

RESULTS

A total of 29,875 hip fracture cases were included in the study. The 30-day mortality of the overall cohort was 7.7%. A scale of 0-9 points was created, with a cut-off point of 4 points for the determination of patients at high risk of mortality. The AUC was 0.886. RNFC score presented good level of calibration (p = 0.139). The predicted-to-observed ratio was 1.09.

CONCLUSIONS

The RNFC predictive model with variables collected at the Emergency Department showed an excellent predictive capacity for 30-day mortality in patients after hip fracture.

O-POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of morbidity and mortality in older patients after hip fracture surgery: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The POSSUM model has been widely used to predict morbidity and mortality after general surgery. Modified versions known as O-POSSUM and P-POSSUM have been used extensively in orthopedic surgery, but their accuracy is unclear. This systematic review evaluated the predictive value of these models in older patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

This study was performed and reported based on the "Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses" guidelines. PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Web of Science were comprehensively searched for relevant studies, whose methodological quality was evaluated according to the "Methodological index for non-randomized studies" scale. Revman 5 was used to calculate weighted ratios of observed to expected morbidity or mortality.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 10 studies, of which nine (2549 patients) assessed the ability of O-POSSUM to predict postoperative morbidity, nine (3649 patients) assessed the ability of O-POSSUM to predict postoperative mortality, and four (1794 patients) assessed the ability of P-POSSUM to predict postoperative mortality. The corresponding weighted ratios of observed to expected morbidity or mortality were 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-1.00), 0.68 (95% CI 0.49-0.95), and 0.61 (95% CI 0.16-2.38).

CONCLUSIONS

While O-POSSUM shows reasonable accuracy in predicting postoperative morbidity in older patients with hip fractures, both P-POSSUM and O-POSSUM substantially overestimate postoperative mortality. The POSSUM model should be optimized further for this patient population.

Utilizing a nomogram to predict the one-year postoperative mortality risk for geriatric patients with a hip fracture

Despite the abundance of research on the risk factors for mortality following hip fracture surgery, there has been a dearth of studies on prediction models in this population. The objective of this research was to explore the influencing factors and construct a clinical nomogram to predict one-year postoperative mortality in patients with hip fracture surgeries. Using the Ditmanson Research Database (DRD), we included 2333 subjects, aged ≥ 50 years who underwent hip fracture surgery between October, 2008 and August, 2021. The endpoint was all-cause mortality. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) derived Cox regression was performed to select the independent predictors of one-year postoperative mortality. A nomogram was built for predicting one-year postoperative mortality. The prognostic performance of nomogram was evaluated. On the basis of tertiary points in a nomogram, the patients were divided into low, middle and high risk groups, and compared by the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Within 1 year after hip fracture surgery, 274 patients (11.74%) died. Variables retained in the final model comprised age, sex, length of stay, RBC transfusions, hemoglobin, platelet, and eGFR. The AUC for one-year mortality predictions were 0.717 (95% CI = 0.685-0.749). The Kaplan-Meier curves were significantly different among the three risk groups (p < 0.001). The nomogram showed good calibration. In summary, we explored the one-year postoperative mortality risk in geriatric patients with a hip fracture and developed a prediction model that could help clinicians identify patients at high risk of postoperative mortality.

Prediction of long-term mortality following hip fracture surgery: evaluation of three risk models

INTRODUCTION

Several prognostic models have been developed for mortality in hip fracture patients, but their accuracy for long-term prediction is unclear. This study evaluates the performance of three models assessing 30-day, 1-year and 8-year mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the model developed by Holt et al. and the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients admitted with a fractured hip between January 2012 and June 2013 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Relevant variables used by the three models were collected, as were mortality data. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by determining risk groups for each model, comparing differences in mortality using Kaplan-Meier curves, and by assessing positive and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

A total of 344 patients were included for analysis. Observed mortality rates were 6.1% after 30 days, 19.1% after 1 year and 68.6% after 8 years. The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. demonstrated good to excellent discrimination and adequate calibration for both short- and long-term mortality prediction, with similar clinical usefulness measures. The HEMA demonstrated inferior prediction of 30-day and 8-year mortality, with worse discriminative abilities and a significant lack of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. allowed for accurate identification of low- and high-risk patients for both short- and long-term mortality after a fracture of the hip. The HEMA performed poorly. When considering predictive performance and ease of use, the NHFS seems most suitable for implementation in daily clinical practice.

A Higher Postoperative Barthel Index at Discharge is Associated with a Lower One-Year Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery for Geriatric Patients: A Retrospective Case‒Control Study

Purpose

To evaluate the relationship between the postoperative Barthel index assessing activities of daily living at discharge and the one-year mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Methods

Patients with hip fracture admitted to Peking University First Hospital from January 2015 to January 2020 were enrolled retrospectively according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Barthel index and other related confounding variables were collected. Logistic regression and Kaplan‒Meier survival curves were constructed to explore the relationship between the postoperative Barthel index at discharge and the one-year mortality of geriatric patients after hip fracture surgery.

Results

A total of 444 patients with a mean age of 81.61±6.14 years were included. A significant difference was not observed in the preoperative Barthel index at admission between the deceased group and the surviving group (38.90±15.83 vs 36.96±10.74, p=0.446). However, the difference in the postoperative Barthel index at discharge between these two groups was statistically significant (43.08±14.40 vs 53.18±13.43, P<0.001). The multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the postoperative Barthel index at discharge was an independent risk factor for one-year mortality after adjustment for confounding variables (adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.98, p˂0.05). The Kaplan‒Meier survival curve showed that patients who had a high Barthel index (≥50) at discharge had a significantly lower mortality in the long term than patients with a low Barthel index (<50) at discharge (P< 0.001).

Conclusion

The postoperative Barthel index at discharge was independently associated with the one-year mortality of geriatric patients after hip fracture surgery. A higher postoperative Barthel index at discharge indicated a lower mortality after hip fracture surgery. The Barthel index at discharge has the potential to provide essential prognostic information for early risk stratification and directing future care.

The prediction of early mortality following hip fracture surgery in patients aged 90 years and older: the Almelo Hip Fracture Score 90 (AHFS90)

The AHFS90 was developed for the prediction of early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 has a good accuracy and in most risk categories a good calibration. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.

PURPOSE

Identifying hip fracture patients with a high risk of early mortality after surgery could help make treatment decisions and information about the prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a risk score for predicting early mortality in patients ≥ 90 years undergoing hip fracture surgery (AHFS90).

METHODS

Patients ≥ 90 years, surgically treated for a hip fracture, were included. A selection of possible predictors for mortality was made. Missing data were subjected to multiple imputations using chained equations. Logistic regression was performed to develop the AHFS90, which was internally and externally validated. Calibration was assessed using a calibration plot and comparing observed and predicted risks.

RESULTS

One hundred and two of the 922 patients (11.1%) died ≤ 30 days following hip fracture surgery. The AHFS90 includes age, gender, dementia, living in a nursing home, ASA score, and hemoglobin level as predictors for early mortality. The AHFS90 had good accuracy (area under the curve 0.72 for geographic cross validation). Predicted risks correspond with observed risks of early mortality in four risk categories. In two risk categories, the AHFS90 overestimates the risk. In one risk category, no mortality was observed; therefore, no analysis was possible. The AHFS90 had a maximal prediction of early mortality of 64.5% in this study population.

CONCLUSION

The AHFS90 accurately predicts early mortality after hip fracture surgery in patients ≥ 90 years of age. Predicted risks correspond to observed risks in most risk categories. In our study population, the AHFS90 yielded a maximum prediction of early mortality of 64.5%.

Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score in Predicting Postoperative Outcomes Following Hip Fracture Surgery

OBJECTIVE

Although several prognostic models have been developed for patients who underwent hip fracture surgery, their preoperative performance was insufficiently validated. We aimed to verify the effectiveness of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for predicting postoperative outcomes following hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

This was a single-center and retrospective analysis. A total of 702 elderly patients with hip fractures (age ≥ 65 years old) who received treatment in our hospital from June 2020 to August 2021 were selected as the research participants. They were divided into the survival group and the death group based on their survival 30 days after surgery. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the independent risk factors for the 30-day mortality after surgery. The NHFS and American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grades were used to construct these models, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted to assess their diagnostic significance. A correlation analysis was performed between NHFS and length of hospitalization and mobility 3 months after surgery.

RESULTS

There were significant differences in the age, albumin level, NHFS, and ASA grade between both groups (p < 0.05). The length of hospitalization in the death group was longer than the survival group (p < 0.05). The perioperative blood transfusion and postoperative ICU transfer rates in the death group were higher than in the survival group (p < 0.05). The death group's incidence of pulmonary infections, urinary tract infections, cardiovascular events, pressure ulcers, stress ulcers with bleeding, and intestinal obstruction was higher than the survival group (p < 0.05). The NHFS and ASA III were independent risk factors for the 30-day mortality after surgery, regardless of age and albumin level (p < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the NHFS and ASA grade for predicting the 30-day mortality after surgery was 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.709-0.873, p < 0.05) and 0.621 (95% CI 0.477-0.764, p > 0.05), respectively. The NHFS positively correlated with hospitalization length and mobility grade 3 months after surgery (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The NHFS demonstrated a better predictive performance than the ASA score for the 30-day mortality after surgery and positively correlated with the hospitalization length and postoperative activity limitation in elderly patients with hip fractures.

One-year mortality after hip fracture surgery: urban-rural differences in the Colombian Andes

To determine urban-rural differences influencing mortality in patients with hip fracture in Colombian Andes Mountains over a 1-year period.

PURPOSE

To identify the urban-rural differences of sociodemographic variables, fracture-related characteristics, and preoperative and postoperative clinical factors associated with 1-year mortality in patients over 60 years old who underwent hip fracture surgery in the Andes Mountains.

METHODS

A total of 126 patients with a fragility hip fracture during 2019-2020 were admitted to a tertiary care hospital. They were evaluated preoperatively and followed up until discharge. Those who survived were contacted by telephone at 1, 3, and 12 months. Univariate, bivariate, and Kaplan-Meier analyses with survival curves were performed. Relative risk was calculated with a 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

A total of 32.5% of the patients died within 1 year after surgery, with a significant difference between those who resided in rural areas (43.1%) and those who resided in urban areas (23.5%) (RR 1.70; 95% CI, 1.03 to 2.80, p = 0.036). In the multivariate analysis, anemia (hemoglobin level ≤ 9.0 g/dL during hospitalization) (RR 6.61; 95% CI, 1.49-29.37, p = 0.003), a blood transfusion requirement (RR 1.47; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.01, p = 0.015), the type of fracture (subtrochanteric fracture (RR = 4.9, 95% CI = 1.418-16.943, p = 0.005)), and postoperative acute decompensation of chronic disease (RR 1.60; 95% CI, 1.01 to 2.53, p = 0.043) were found to be independent predictive factors of 1-year mortality after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a difference in 1-year mortality between patients from rural and urban areas. More studies must be conducted to determine whether rurality behaves as an independent risk factor or is related to other variables, such as the burden of comorbidities and in-hospital complications.

Application of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in the risk assessment of elderly hip fracture surgery: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Since Mohamed et al. analyzed 2326 orthopedic cases in 2002 and believed that the POSSUM formula can be directly used to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in orthopedic patients, applications of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in the hip fracture surgery have been mostly reported in the field of orthopedics, but there are still some inconsistencies in the related reports.

Methods

The electronic library was searched for all literature that met the purpose from its inception to 2021. Relative risk (RR) was selected to evaluate whether the model could be used to assess the risk of surgery in patients with elderly hip fractures. Finally, sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were performed.

Results

Thirteen studies were finally included, including 9 retrospective and 4 prospective studies.The morbidity analysis includes 11 studies, and the result was RR = 1.07 (95% CI 0.93–1.24), The mortality analysis includes 11 studies on POSSUM and 5 studies on P-POSSUM. The results of mortality by POSSUM and by P-POSSUM were RR = 1.93 (95% CI 1.21–3.08) and RR = 1.15 (95% CI 0.89–1.50), respectively. POSSUM had more accuracy to predict mortality for sample < 200 subgroup(RR = 2.45; 95% CI 0.71–8.42) than sample > 200 subgroup(RR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.06–2.40), and in the subgroup of hip fractures that did not distinguish between specific fracture types(RR = 1.69, 95% CI 0.87–3.32) than intertrochanteric neck fracture subgroup(RR = 5.04, 95% CI 1.07–23.75) and femoral femoral fracture subgroup(RR = 1.43,95% CI 1.10–1.84).

Conclusion

POSSUM can be used to predict morbidity in elderly hip fractures. The P-POSSUM was more accurate in predicting mortality in elderly hip fracture patients compared to the POSSUM, whose predictive value for mortality was influenced by the sample size and type of fracture studied. In addition, we believe that appropriate improvements to the POSSUM system are needed to address the characteristics of orthopedic surgery.

Determinants of Higher Mortality at Six Months in Patients with Hip Fracture: A Retrospective Study

(1) Background: Hip fracture is a pathology with high mortality, but the lack of a universal adaptation of the factors associated with death makes it difficult to predict risk and implement prevention in this group. This study aimed to identify the factors that determine a higher mortality at six months following hip fracture. (2) Methods: A retrospective longitudinal study, whose study population consisted of patients over 65 years of age. The main variable was mortality at 6 months of fracture. Relevant data related to sociodemographic and clinical variables for subsequent bivariate (χ²) and multivariate analysis were obtained. (3) Results: In all, 665 people participated in the study, 128 of whom died within 6 months of the fracture. The multivariate adjusted analysis demonstrated significant relationships between the main variable and aspects such as institutionalization at discharge (Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.501), a worse overall functional capacity (OR = 2.453) and cognitive capacity (OR = 3.040) at admission, and complications such as heart failure (OR = 5.767) or respiratory infection (OR = 5.308), in addition to the taking of certain drugs and the presence of a greater number of comorbidities. (4) Conclusions: There are certain factors related to higher mortality at six months in patients with hip fracture who are aged 65 years or older.

Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for the prediction of 30-day mortality in a Swedish cohort of hip fractures

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture is a common osteoporotic fracture with great morbidity and mortality. The utility of ASA classification is limited, as most patients are ≥ASA 3. A reliable predictor of mortality risk could support decision-making. We aimed to evaluate Nottingham hip fracture score (NHFS) for the prediction of 30-day mortality and then to recalibrate the formula converting NHFS to risk of 30-day mortality.

METHODS

All patients >60 years with surgically treated hip fracture surgery during 2015-16 were assessed. Data was extracted manually from routinely collected clinical data in registry and medical records. Discriminative performance of NHFS and ASA was assessed with C-statistics. The conversion formula from NHFS to risk of 30-day mortality was recalibrated using logistic binominal regression. Observed vs expected ratios of 30-day mortality were compared with the 2012 NHFS-formula and recalibration was performed in a split dataset.

RESULTS

1864 patients were included, with 213 deaths within 30 days. C-statistic were 0.64 for NHFS and 0.62 for ASA. Comparing expected values from the 2012-revision with our observed deaths gave a ratio of 1.37. Relating predicted levels of 30-day mortality based on 70% of our cohort vs. 30% test portion of our Swedish dataset gave a ratio of 0.97.

DISCUSSION

NHFS underestimated mortality in our cohort and showed poor discrimination. Revision of the formula based on a split dataset improved calibration. We suggest NHFS to be routinely implemented to support clinical judgements, expand preoperative assessment and escalate intraoperative monitoring.