Integration and relative value of biomarkers for prediction of MCI to AD progression: spatial patterns of brain atrophy, cognitive scores, APOE genotype and CSF biomarkers

High-dimensional mediation analysis reveals the mediating role of physical activity patterns in genetic pathways leading to AD-like brain atrophy

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex disorder that affects multiple biological systems including cognition, behavior and physical health. Unfortunately, the pathogenic mechanisms behind AD are not yet clear and the treatment options are still limited. Despite the increasing number of studies examining the pairwise relationships between genetic factors, physical activity (PA), and AD, few have successfully integrated all three domains of data, which may help reveal mechanisms and impact of these genomic and phenomic factors on AD. We use high-dimensional mediation analysis as an integrative framework to study the relationships among genetic factors, PA and AD-like brain atrophy quantified by spatial patterns of brain atrophy.

RESULTS

We integrate data from genetics, PA and neuroimaging measures collected from 13,425 UK Biobank samples to unveil the complex relationship among genetic risk factors, behavior and brain signatures in the contexts of aging and AD. Specifically, we used a composite imaging marker, Spatial Pattern of Abnormality for Recognition of Early AD (SPARE-AD) that characterizes AD-like brain atrophy, as an outcome variable to represent AD risk. Through GWAS, we identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are significantly associated with SPARE-AD as exposure variables. We employed conventional summary statistics and functional principal component analysis to extract patterns of PA as mediators. After constructing these variables, we utilized a high-dimensional mediation analysis method, Bayesian Mediation Analysis (BAMA), to estimate potential mediating pathways between SNPs, multivariate PA signatures and SPARE-AD. BAMA incorporates Bayesian continuous shrinkage prior to select the active mediators from a large pool of candidates. We identified a total of 22 mediation pathways, indicating how genetic variants can influence SPARE-AD by altering physical activity. By comparing the results with those obtained using univariate mediation analysis, we demonstrate the advantages of high-dimensional mediation analysis methods over univariate mediation analysis.

CONCLUSION

Through integrative analysis of multi-omics data, we identified several mediation pathways of physical activity between genetic factors and SPARE-AD. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms of AD. Moreover, our research demonstrates the potential of the high-dimensional mediation analysis method in revealing the mechanisms of disease.

The Dementia SomaSignal Test (dSST): A plasma proteomic predictor of 20-year dementia risk

INTRODUCTION

There is an unmet need for tools to quantify dementia risk during its multi-decade preclinical/prodromal phase, given that current biomarkers predict risk over shorter follow-up periods and are specific to Alzheimer's disease.

METHODS

Using high-throughput proteomic assays and machine learning techniques in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (n = 11,277), we developed the Dementia SomaSignal Test (dSST).

RESULTS

In addition to outperforming existing plasma biomarkers, the dSST predicted mid-life dementia risk over a 20-year follow-up across two independent cohorts with different ethnic backgrounds (areas under the curve [AUCs]: dSST 0.68-0.70, dSST+age 0.75-0.81). In a separate cohort, the dSST was associated with longitudinal declines across multiple cognitive domains, accelerated brain atrophy, and elevated measures of neuropathology (as evidenced by positron emission tomography and plasma biomarkers).

DISCUSSION

The dSST is a cost-effective, scalable, and minimally invasive protein-based prognostic aid that can quantify risk up to two decades before dementia onset.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Dementia SomaSignal Test (dSST) predicts 20-year dementia risk across two independent cohorts. dSST outperforms existing plasma biomarkers in predicting multi-decade dementia risk. dSST predicts cognitive decline and accelerated brain atrophy in a third cohort. dSST is a prognostic aid that can predict dementia risk over two decades.

Differential expression of N-glycopeptides derived from serum glycoproteins in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an early stage of memory loss that affects cognitive abilities with the aging of individuals, such as language or visual/spatial comprehension. MCI is considered a prodromal phase of more complicated neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's. Therefore, accurate diagnosis and better understanding of the disease prognosis will facilitate prevention of neurodegeneration. However, the existing diagnostic methods fail to provide precise and well-timed diagnoses, and the pathophysiology of MCI is not fully understood. Alterations of the serum N-glycoproteome expression could represent an essential contributor to the overall pathophysiology of neurodegenerative diseases and be used as a potential marker to assess MCI diagnosis using less invasive procedures. In this approach, we identified N-glycopeptides with different expressions between healthy and MCI patients from serum glycoproteins. Seven of the N-glycopeptides showed outstanding AUC values, among them the antithrombin-III Asn224 + 4-5-0-2 with an AUC value of 1.00 and a p value of 0.0004. According to proteomics and ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA), our data is in line with recent publications, and the glycoproteins carrying the identified N-sites play an important role in neurodegeneration.

Proteomic analyses reveal plasma EFEMP1 and CXCL12 as biomarkers and determinants of neurodegeneration

INTRODUCTION

Plasma proteomic analyses of unique brain atrophy patterns may illuminate peripheral drivers of neurodegeneration and identify novel biomarkers for predicting clinically relevant outcomes.

METHODS

We identified proteomic signatures associated with machine learning-derived aging- and Alzheimer's disease (AD) -related brain atrophy patterns in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (n = 815). Using data from five cohorts, we examined whether candidate proteins were associated with AD endophenotypes and long-term dementia risk.

RESULTS

Plasma proteins associated with distinct patterns of age- and AD-related atrophy were also associated with plasma/cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD biomarkers, cognition, AD risk, as well as mid-life (20-year) and late-life (8-year) dementia risk. EFEMP1 and CXCL12 showed the most consistent associations across cohorts and were mechanistically implicated as determinants of brain structure using genetic methods, including Mendelian randomization.

DISCUSSION

Our findings reveal plasma proteomic signatures of unique aging- and AD-related brain atrophy patterns and implicate EFEMP1 and CXCL12 as important molecular drivers of neurodegeneration.

HIGHLIGHTS

Plasma proteomic signatures are associated with unique patterns of brain atrophy. Brain atrophy-related proteins predict clinically relevant outcomes across cohorts. Genetic variation underlying plasma EFEMP1 and CXCL12 influences brain structure. EFEMP1 and CXCL12 may be important molecular drivers of neurodegeneration.

Alzheimer's disease genetic risk and changes in brain atrophy and white matter hyperintensities in cognitively unimpaired adults

Reduced brain volumes and more prominent white matter hyperintensities on MRI scans are commonly observed among older adults without cognitive impairment. However, it remains unclear whether rates of change in these measures among cognitively normal adults differ as a function of genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease, including APOE-ɛ4, APOE-ɛ2 and Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk scores (AD-PRS), and whether these relationships are influenced by other variables. This longitudinal study examined the trajectories of regional brain volumes and white matter hyperintensities in relationship to APOE genotypes (N = 1541) and AD-PRS (N = 1093) in a harmonized dataset of middle-aged and older individuals with normal cognition at baseline (mean baseline age = 66 years, SD = 9.6) and an average of 5.3 years of MRI follow-up (max = 24 years). Atrophy on volumetric MRI scans was quantified in three ways: (i) a composite score of regions vulnerable to Alzheimer's disease (SPARE-AD); (ii) hippocampal volume; and (iii) a composite score of regions indexing advanced non-Alzheimer's disease-related brain aging (SPARE-BA). Global white matter hyperintensity volumes were derived from fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MRI. Using linear mixed effects models, there was an APOE-ɛ4 gene-dose effect on atrophy in the SPARE-AD composite and hippocampus, with greatest atrophy among ɛ4/ɛ4 carriers, followed by ɛ4 heterozygouts, and lowest among ɛ3 homozygouts and ɛ2/ɛ2 and ɛ2/ɛ3 carriers, who did not differ from one another. The negative associations of APOE-ɛ4 with atrophy were reduced among those with higher education (P < 0.04) and younger baseline ages (P < 0.03). Higher AD-PRS were also associated with greater atrophy in SPARE-AD (P = 0.035) and the hippocampus (P = 0.014), independent of APOE-ɛ4 status. APOE-ɛ2 status (ɛ2/ɛ2 and ɛ2/ɛ3 combined) was not related to baseline levels or atrophy in SPARE-AD, SPARE-BA or the hippocampus, but was related to greater increases in white matter hyperintensities (P = 0.014). Additionally, there was an APOE-ɛ4 × AD-PRS interaction in relation to white matter hyperintensities (P = 0.038), with greater increases in white matter hyperintensities among APOE-ɛ4 carriers with higher AD-PRS. APOE and AD-PRS associations with MRI measures did not differ by sex. These results suggest that APOE-ɛ4 and AD-PRS independently and additively influence longitudinal declines in brain volumes sensitive to Alzheimer's disease and synergistically increase white matter hyperintensity accumulation among cognitively normal individuals. Conversely, APOE-ɛ2 primarily influences white matter hyperintensity accumulation, not brain atrophy. Results are consistent with the view that genetic factors for Alzheimer's disease influence atrophy in a regionally specific manner, likely reflecting preclinical neurodegeneration, and that Alzheimer's disease risk genes contribute to white matter hyperintensity formation.

Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease: a multimodal approach

Successively predicting whether mild cognitive impairment patients will progress to Alzheimer's disease is of significant clinical relevance. This ability may provide information that can be leveraged by emerging intervention approaches and thus mitigate some of the negative effects of the disease. Neuroimaging biomarkers have gained some attention in recent years and may be useful in predicting the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease. We implemented a novel multi-modal approach that allowed us to evaluate the potential of different imaging modalities, both alone and in different degrees of combinations, in predicting the conversion to Alzheimer's disease of mild cognitive impairment patients. We applied this approach to the imaging data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative that is a multi-modal imaging dataset comprised of MRI, Fluorodeoxyglucose PET, Florbetapir PET and diffusion tensor imaging. We included a total of 480 mild cognitive impairment patients that were split into two groups: converted and stable. Imaging data were segmented into atlas-based regions of interest, from which relevant features were extracted for the different imaging modalities and used to construct machine-learning models to classify mild cognitive impairment patients into converted or stable, using each of the different imaging modalities independently. The models were then combined, using a simple weight fusion ensemble strategy, to evaluate the complementarity of different imaging modalities and their contribution to the prediction accuracy of the models. The single-modality findings revealed that the model, utilizing features extracted from Florbetapir PET, demonstrated the highest performance with a balanced accuracy of 83.51%. Concerning multi-modality models, not all combinations enhanced mild cognitive impairment conversion prediction. Notably, the combination of MRI with Fluorodeoxyglucose PET emerged as the most promising, exhibiting an overall improvement in predictive capabilities, achieving a balanced accuracy of 78.43%. This indicates synergy and complementarity between the two imaging modalities in predicting mild cognitive impairment conversion. These findings suggest that β-amyloid accumulation provides robust predictive capabilities, while the combination of multiple imaging modalities has the potential to surpass certain single-modality approaches. Exploring modality-specific biomarkers, we identified the brainstem as a sensitive biomarker for both MRI and Fluorodeoxyglucose PET modalities, implicating its involvement in early Alzheimer's pathology. Notably, the corpus callosum and adjacent cortical regions emerged as potential biomarkers, warranting further study into their role in the early stages of Alzheimer's disease.

A Predictive Model of the Progression to Alzheimer's Disease in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment Based on the MRI Enlarged Perivascular Spaces

Background

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a heterogeneous condition that can precede various forms of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). Identifying MCI subjects who are at high risk of progressing to AD is of major clinical relevance. Enlarged perivascular spaces (EPVS) on MRI are linked to cognitive decline, but their predictive value for MCI to AD progression is unclear.

Objective

This study aims to assess the predictive value of EPVS for MCI to AD progression and develop a predictive model combining EPVS grading with clinical and laboratory data to estimate conversion risk.

Methods

We analyzed 358 patients with MCI from the ADNI database, consisting of 177 MCI-AD converters and 181 non-converters. The data collected included demographic information, imaging data (including perivascular spaces grade), clinical assessments, and laboratory test results. Variable selection was conducted using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method, followed by logistic regression to develop predictive model.

Results

In the univariate logistic regression analysis, both moderate (OR = 5.54, 95% CI [3.04-10.18]) and severe (OR = 25.04, 95% CI [10.07-62.23]) enlargements of the centrum semiovale perivascular space (CSO-PVS) were found to be strong predictors of disease progression. LASSO analyses yielded 12 variables, refined to six in the final model: APOE4 genotype, ADAS11 score, CSO-PVS grade, and volumes of entorhinal, fusiform, and midtemporal regions, with an AUC of 0.956 in the training and 0.912 in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

Our predictive model, emphasizing EPVS assessment, provides clinicians with a practical tool for early detection and management of AD risk in MCI patients.

The relationship between APOE genotype, CSF Tau and cognition across the Alzheimer's disease spectrum, moderation and mediation role of insula network connectivity

AIMS

To investigate whether insula network connectivity modulates the relationship between apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers (Aβ, Tau, and pTau) and cognition across Alzheimer's disease (AD) spectrum.

METHODS

Forty-six cognitive normal (CN), 35 subjective memory complaint (SMC), 41 mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 32 AD subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) were obtained. Multivariable linear regression analyses were conducted to investigate the main effects and interaction of the APOE genotype and disease status on the insula functional connectivity (IFC) network. Mediation and moderation analysis were performed to investigate whether IFC strengths regulate the association between APOE genotype, CSF biomarkers and cognition. Additionally, the support vector machine (SVM) model integrating APOE genotype, CSF biomarkers, and neuroimaging biomarkers (insula volumes and altered regional IFCs) was used to classify the AD spectrum.

RESULTS

The interactive effect of the APOE genotype and disease on the insula network was found in the left medial superior frontal gyrus (SFGmed.L), right anterior medial prefrontal cortex (aMPFC.R), and bilateral thalamus (THA.B). The functional connectivities (FCs) in the left insula (LIns) connecting with the left posterior middle temporal gyrus (pMTG.L), SFGmed.L, and right lingual gyrus (LING.R) were correlated with cognition. LIns-SFGmed.L and LIns-pMTG.L FCs could moderate the effects of Tau on cognition. Furthermore, LIns-SFGmed.L FC may suppress the association between APOE genotype and cognition. More importantly, the integrated biomarkers from the SVM model yielded strong powers for classifying the AD spectrum.

CONCLUSIONS

Insula functional connectivity regulated the association between APOE genotype, CSF Tau and cognition and provided stage-dependent biomarkers for early differentiation of the AD spectrum. The present study used a cross-sectional design. Follow-up studies are needed to validate the relationship.

Diagnostic performance of MRI radiomics for classification of Alzheimer's disease, mild cognitive impairment, and normal subjects: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a debilitating neurodegenerative disease. Early diagnosis of AD and its precursor, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), is crucial for timely intervention and management. Radiomics involves extracting quantitative features from medical images and analyzing them using advanced computational algorithms. These characteristics have the potential to serve as biomarkers for disease classification, treatment response prediction, and patient stratification. Of note, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics showed a promising result for diagnosing and classifying AD, and MCI from normal subjects. Thus, we aimed to systematically evaluate the diagnostic performance of the MRI radiomics for this task.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A comprehensive search of the current literature was conducted using relevant keywords in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases from inception to August 5, 2023. Original studies discussing the diagnostic performance of MRI radiomics for the classification of AD, MCI, and normal subjects were included. Method quality was evaluated with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) and the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS) tools.

RESULTS

We identified 13 studies that met the inclusion criteria, involving a total of 5448 participants. The overall quality of the included studies was moderate to high. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of MRI radiomics for differentiating AD from normal subjects were 0.92 (95% CI [0.85; 0.96]) and 0.91 (95% CI [0.85; 0.95]), respectively. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of MRI radiomics for differentiating MCI from normal subjects were 0.74 (95% CI [0.60; 0.85]) and 0.79 (95% CI [0.70; 0.86]), respectively. Also, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of MRI radiomics for differentiating AD from MCI were 0.73 (95% CI [0.64; 0.80]) and 0.79 (95% CI [0.64; 0.90]), respectively.

CONCLUSION

MRI radiomics has promising diagnostic performance in differentiating AD, MCI, and normal subjects. It can potentially serve as a non-invasive and reliable tool for early diagnosis and classification of AD and MCI.

Predicting mild cognitive impairments from cognitively normal brains using a novel brain age estimation model based on structural magnetic resonance imaging

Brain age prediction is a practical method used to quantify brain aging and detect neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, very few studies have considered brain age prediction as a biomarker for the conversion of cognitively normal (CN) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI). In this study, we developed a novel brain age prediction model using brain volume and cortical thickness features. We calculated an acceleration of brain age (ABA) derived from the suggested model to estimate different diagnostic groups (CN, MCI, and AD) and to classify CN to MCI and MCI to AD conversion groups. We observed a strong association between ABA and the 3 diagnostic groups. Additionally, the classification models for CN to MCI conversion and MCI to AD conversion exhibited acceptable and robust performances, with area under the curve values of 0.66 and 0.76, respectively. We believe that our proposed model provides a reliable estimate of brain age for elderly individuals and can identify those at risk of progressing from CN to MCI. This model has great potential to reveal a diagnosis associated with a change in cognitive decline.

Genetic algorithms based optimized hybrid deep learning model for explainable Alzheimer's prediction based on temporal multimodal cognitive data.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3250006/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is an irreversible neurodegenerative disease. Its early detection is crucial to stop disease progression at an early stage. Most deep learning (DL) literature focused on neuroimage analysis. However, there is no noticed effect of these studies in the real environment. Model's robustness, cost, and interpretability are considered the main reasons for these limitations. The medical intuition of physicians is to evaluate the clinical biomarkers of patients then test their neuroimages. Cognitive scores provide an medically acceptable and cost-effective alternative for the neuroimages to predict AD progression. Each score is calculated from a collection of sub-scores which provide a deeper insight about patient conditions. No study in the literature have explored the role of these multimodal time series sub-scores to predict AD progression. We propose a hybrid CNN-LSTM DL model for predicting AD progression based on the fusion of four longitudinal cognitive sub-scores modalities. Bayesian optimizer has been used to select the best DL architecture. A genetic algorithms based feature selection optimization step has been added to the pipeline to select the best features from extracted deep representations of CNN-LSTM. The SoftMax classifier has been replaced by a robust and optimized random forest classifier. Extensive experiments using the ADNI dataset investigated the role of each optimization step, and the proposed model achieved the best results compared to other DL and classical machine learning models. The resulting model is robust, but it is a black box and it is difficult to understand the logic behind its decisions. Trustworthy AI models must be robust and explainable. We used SHAP and LIME to provide explainability features for the proposed model. The resulting trustworthy model has a great potential to be used to provide decision support in the real environments.

Preliminary validation of a structural magnetic resonance imaging metric for tracking dementia-related neurodegeneration and future decline

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized by cognitive decline and atrophy in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and subsequent brain regions. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) has been widely used in research and clinical care for diagnosis and monitoring AD progression. However, atrophy patterns are complex and vary by patient. To address this issue, researchers have made efforts to develop more concise metrics that can summarize AD-specific atrophy. Many of these methods can be difficult to interpret clinically, hampering adoption. In this study, we introduce a novel index which we call an "AD-NeuroScore," that uses a modified Euclidean-inspired distance function to calculate differences between regional brain volumes associated with cognitive decline. The index is adjusted for intracranial volume (ICV), age, sex, and scanner model. We validated AD-NeuroScore using 929 older adults from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study, with a mean age of 72.7 years (SD = 6.3; 55.1-91.5) and cognitively normal (CN), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or AD diagnoses. Our validation results showed that AD-NeuroScore was significantly associated with diagnosis and disease severity scores (measured by MMSE, CDR-SB, and ADAS-11) at baseline. Furthermore, baseline AD-NeuroScore was associated with both changes in diagnosis and disease severity scores at all time points with available data. The performance of AD-NeuroScore was equivalent or superior to adjusted hippocampal volume (AHV), a widely used metric in AD research. Further, AD-NeuroScore typically performed as well as or sometimes better when compared to other existing sMRI-based metrics. In conclusion, we have introduced a new metric, AD-NeuroScore, which shows promising results in detecting AD, benchmarking disease severity, and predicting disease progression. AD-NeuroScore differentiates itself from other metrics by being clinically practical and interpretable.

Recent Trends in Active and Passive Immunotherapies of Alzheimer's Disease

In the elderly, a debilitating condition known as dementia, which is a major health concern, is caused by Alzheimer's disease (AD). Despite promising advances by researchers, there is currently no way to completely cure this devastating disease. It is illustrated by the deposition of amyloid β-peptide (Aβ) plaques that are followed by neural dysfunction and cognitive decline. Responses against AD activate an immune system that contributes to and accelerates AD pathogenesis. Potential efforts in the field of pathogenesis have prompted researchers to explore novel therapies such as active and passive vaccines against Aβ proteins (Aβ immunotherapy), intravenous immunoglobulin, and tau immunotherapy, as well as targets that include microglia and several cytokines for the treatment of AD. Aims are now underway by experts to begin immunotherapies before the clinical manifestation, which is made possible by improving the sensitivity of biomarkers used for the diagnosis of AD to have better outcome measures. This review provides an overview of approved immunotherapeutic strategies for AD and those currently being investigated in clinical trials. We examine their mechanisms of action and discuss the potential perspectives and challenges associated with immunotherapies for AD.

Plasma proteins related to inflammatory diet predict future cognitive impairment

Dysregulation of the immune system and dietary patterns that increase inflammation can increase the risk for cognitive decline, but the mechanisms by which inflammatory nutritional habits may affect the development of cognitive impairment in aging are not well understood. To determine whether plasma proteins linked to inflammatory diet predict future cognitive impairment, we applied high-throughput proteomic assays to plasma samples from a subset (n = 1528) of Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS) participants (mean [SD] baseline age, 71.3 [SD 3.8] years). Results provide insights into how inflammatory nutritional patterns are associated with an immune-related proteome and identify a group of proteins (CXCL10, CCL3, HGF, OPG, CDCP1, NFATC3, ITGA11) related to future cognitive impairment over a 14-year follow-up period. Several of these inflammatory diet proteins were also associated with dementia risk across two external cohorts (ARIC, ESTHER), correlated with plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology (Aβ42/40) and/or neurodegeneration (NfL), and related to an MRI-defined index of neurodegenerative brain atrophy in a separate cohort (BLSA). In addition to evaluating their biological relevance, assessing their potential role in AD, and characterizing their immune-tissue/cell-specific expression, we leveraged published RNA-seq results to examine how the in vitro regulation of genes encoding these candidate proteins might be altered in response to an immune challenge. Our findings indicate how dietary patterns with higher inflammatory potential relate to plasma levels of immunologically relevant proteins and highlight the molecular mediators which predict subsequent risk for age-related cognitive impairment.

Pathway-specific polygenic risk scores correlate with clinical status and Alzheimer's-related biomarkers

Background: APOE is the largest genetic risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD), but there is a substantial polygenic component as well. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) can summarize small effects across the genome but may obscure differential risk associated with different molecular processes and pathways. Variability at the genetic level may contribute to the extensive phenotypic heterogeneity of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here, we examine polygenic risk impacting specific pathways associated with AD and examined its relationship with clinical status and AD biomarkers of amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration (A/T/N). Methods: A total of 1,411 participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) with genotyping data were included. Sets of variants identified from a pathway analysis of AD GWAS summary statistics were combined into clusters based on their assigned pathway. We constructed pathway-specific PRSs for each participant and tested their associations with diagnostic status (AD vs cognitively normal), abnormal levels of amyloid and ptau (positive vs negative), and hippocampal volume. The APOE region was excluded from all PRSs, and analyses controlled for APOE -ε4 carrier status. Results: Thirteen pathway clusters were identified relating to categories such as immune response, amyloid precursor processing, protein localization, lipid transport and binding, tyrosine kinase, and endocytosis. Eight pathway-specific PRSs were significantly associated with AD dementia diagnosis. Amyloid-positivity was associated with endocytosis and fibril formation, response misfolded protein, and regulation protein tyrosine PRSs. Ptau positivity and hippocampal volume were both related to protein localization and mitophagy PRS, and ptau positivity was additionally associated with an immune signaling PRS. A global AD PRS showed stronger associations with diagnosis and all biomarkers compared to pathway PRSs, suggesting a strong synergistic effect of all loci contributing to the global AD PRS. Conclusions: Pathway PRS may contribute to understanding separable disease processes, but do not appear to add significant power for predictive purposes. These findings demonstrate that, although genetic risk for AD is widely distributed, AD-phenotypes may be preferentially associated with risk in specific pathways. Defining genetic risk along multiple dimensions at the individual level may help clarify the etiological heterogeneity in AD.

Pathway-Specific Polygenic Risk Scores Correlate with Clinical Status and Alzheimer's Disease-Related Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

APOE is the largest genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD), but there is a substantial polygenic component. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) can summarize small effects across the genome but may obscure differential risk across molecular processes and pathways that contribute to heterogeneity of disease presentation.

OBJECTIVE

We examined polygenic risk impacting specific AD-associated pathways and its relationship with clinical status and biomarkers of amyloid, tau, and neurodegeneration (A/T/N).

METHODS

We analyzed data from 1,411 participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We applied pathway analysis and clustering to identify AD-associated "pathway clusters" and construct pathway-specific PRSs (excluding the APOE region). We tested associations with diagnostic status, abnormal levels of amyloid and ptau, and hippocampal volume.

RESULTS

Thirteen pathway clusters were identified, and eight pathway-specific PRSs were significantly associated with AD diagnosis. Amyloid-positivity was associated with endocytosis and fibril formation, response misfolded protein, and regulation protein tyrosine PRSs. Ptau positivity and hippocampal volume were both related to protein localization and mitophagy PRS, and ptau-positivity was also associated with an immune signaling PRS. A global AD PRS showed stronger associations with diagnosis and all biomarkers compared to pathway PRSs.

CONCLUSIONS

Pathway PRS may contribute to understanding separable disease processes, but do not add significant power for predictive purposes. These findings demonstrate that AD-phenotypes may be preferentially associated with risk in specific pathways, and defining genetic risk along multiple dimensions may clarify etiological heterogeneity in AD. This approach to delineate pathway-specific PRS can be used to study other complex diseases.

SPARE-Tau: A flortaucipir machine-learning derived early predictor of cognitive decline

BACKGROUND

Recently, tau PET tracers have shown strong associations with clinical outcomes in individuals with cognitive impairment and cognitively unremarkable elderly individuals. flortaucipir PET scans to measure tau deposition in multiple brain areas as the disease progresses. This information needs to be summarized to evaluate disease severity and predict disease progression. We, therefore, sought to develop a machine learning-derived index, SPARE-Tau, which successfully detects pathology in the earliest disease stages and accurately predicts progression compared to a priori-based region of interest approaches (ROI).

METHODS

587 participants of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort had flortaucipir scans, structural MRI scans, and an Aβ biomarker test (CSF or florbetapir PET) performed on the same visit. We derived the SPARE-Tau index in a subset of 367 participants. We evaluated associations with clinical measures for CSF p-tau, SPARE-MRI, and flortaucipir PET indices (SPARE-Tau, meta-temporal, and average Braak ROIs). Bootstrapped multivariate adaptive regression splines linear regression analyzed the association between the biomarkers and baseline ADAS-Cog13 scores. Bootstrapped multivariate linear regression models evaluated associations with clinical diagnosis. Cox-hazards and mixed-effects models investigated clinical progression and longitudinal ADAS-Cog13 changes. The Aβ positive cognitively unremarkable participants, not included in the SPARE-Tau training, served as an independent validation group.

RESULTS

Compared to CSF p-tau, meta-temporal, and averaged Braak tau PET ROIs, SPARE-Tau showed the strongest association with baseline ADAS-cog13 scores and diagnosis. SPARE-Tau also presented the strongest association with clinical progression in cognitively unremarkable participants and longitudinal ADAS-Cog13 changes. Results were confirmed in the Aβ+ cognitively unremarkable hold-out sample participants. CSF p-tau showed the weakest cross-sectional associations and longitudinal prediction.

DISCUSSION

Flortaucipir indices showed the strongest clinical association among the studied biomarkers (flortaucipir, florbetapir, structural MRI, and CSF p-tau) and were predictive in the preclinical disease stages. Among the flortaucipir indices, the machine-learning derived SPARE-Tau index was the most sensitive clinical progression biomarker. The combination of different biomarker modalities better predicted cognitive performance.

Self- and Partner-Reported Subjective Memory Complaints: Association with Objective Cognitive Impairment and Risk of Decline

Background

Episodic memory decline is a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Subjective memory complaints (SMCs) may represent one of the earliest signs of impending cognitive decline. The degree to which self- or partner-reported SMCs predict cognitive change remains unclear.

Objective

We aimed to evaluate the relationship between self- and partner-reported SMCs, objective cognitive performance, AD biomarkers, and risk of future decline in a well-characterized longitudinal memory center cohort. We also evaluated whether study partner characteristics influence reports of SMCs.

Methods

758 participants and 690 study partners were recruited from the Penn Alzheimer's Disease Research Center Clinical Core. Participants included those with Normal Cognition, Mild Cognitive Impairment, and AD. SMCs were measured using the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ), and were evaluated for their association with cognition, genetic, plasma, and neuroimaging biomarkers of AD, cognitive and functional decline, and diagnostic progression over an average of four years.

Results

We found that partner-reported SMCs were more consistent with cognitive test performance and increasing symptom severity than self-reported SMCs. Partner-reported SMCs showed stronger correlations with AD-associated brain atrophy, plasma biomarkers of neurodegeneration, and longitudinal cognitive and functional decline. A 10-point increase on baseline PRMQ increased the annual risk of diagnostic progression by approximately 70%. Study partner demographics and relationship to participants influenced reports of SMCs in AD participants only.

Conclusion

Partner-reported SMCs, using the PRMQ, have a stronger relationship with the neuroanatomic and cognitive changes associated with AD than patient-reported SMCs. Further work is needed to evaluate whether SMCs could be used to screen for future decline.

Disentangling tau and brain atrophy cluster heterogeneity across the Alzheimer's disease continuum

Introduction

Neuroimaging heterogeneity in dementia has been examined using single modalities. We evaluated the associations of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) atrophy and flortaucipir positron emission tomography (PET) clusters across the Alzheimer's disease (AD) spectrum.

Methods

We included 496 Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative participants with brain MRI, flortaucipir PET scan, and amyloid beta biomarker measures obtained. We applied a novel robust collaborative clustering (RCC) approach on the MRI and flortaucipir PET scans. We derived indices for AD-like (SPARE-AD index) and brain age (SPARE-BA) atrophy.

Results

We identified four tau (I-IV) and three atrophy clusters. Tau clusters were associated with the apolipoprotein E genotype. Atrophy clusters were associated with white matter hyperintensity volumes. Only the hippocampal sparing atrophy cluster showed a specific association with brain aging imaging index. Tau clusters presented stronger clinical associations than atrophy clusters. Tau and atrophy clusters were partially associated.

Conclusions

Each neuroimaging modality captured different aspects of brain aging, genetics, vascular changes, and neurodegeneration leading to individual multimodal phenotyping.

Profile and Non-Profile MM Modeling of Cluster Failure Time and Analysis of ADNI Data

Motivated by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data, the objective of integration of important biomarkers for the early detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) as a therapeutic intervention is most likely to be beneficial in the early stages of disease progression. Developing predictors for MCI to AD comes down to genotype variables such that the dimension of predictors increases as the sample becomes large. Thus, we consider the sparsity concept of coefficients in a high-dimensional regression model with clustered failure time data such as ADNI, which enables enhancing predictive performances and facilitates the model’s interpretability. In this study, we propose two MM algorithms (profile and non-profile) for the shared frailty survival model firstly and then extend the two proposed MM algorithms to regularized estimation in sparse high-dimensional regression model. The convergence properties of our proposed estimators are also established. Furthermore simulation studies and analysis of ADNI data are illustrated by our proposed methods.

Study protocol: retrospectively mining multisite clinical data to presymptomatically predict seizure onset for individual patients with Sturge-Weber

INTRODUCTION

Secondary analysis of hospital-hosted clinical data can save time and cost compared with prospective clinical trials for neuroimaging biomarker development. We present such a study for Sturge-Weber syndrome (SWS), a rare neurovascular disorder that affects 1 in 20 000-50 000 newborns. Children with SWS are at risk for developing neurocognitive deficit by school age. A critical period for early intervention is before 2 years of age, but early diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers are lacking. We aim to retrospectively mine clinical data for SWS at two national centres to develop presymptomatic biomarkers.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will retrospectively collect clinical, MRI and neurocognitive outcome data for patients with SWS who underwent brain MRI before 2 years of age at two national SWS care centres. Expert review of clinical records and MRI quality control will be used to refine the cohort. The merged multisite data will be used to develop algorithms for abnormality detection, lesion-symptom mapping to identify neural substrate and machine learning to predict individual outcomes (presence or absence of seizures) by 2 years of age. Presymptomatic treatment in 0-2 years and before seizure onset may delay or prevent the onset of seizures by 2 years of age, and thereby improve neurocognitive outcomes. The proposed work, if successful, will be one of the largest and most comprehensive multisite databases for the presymptomatic phase of this rare disease.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study involves human participants and was approved by Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board: IRB-P00014482 and IRB-P00025916 Johns Hopkins School of Medicine Institutional Review Board: NA_00043846. Participants gave informed consent to participate in the study before taking part. The Institutional Review Boards at Kennedy Krieger Institute and Boston Children's Hospital approval have been obtained at each site to retrospectively study this data. Results will be disseminated by presentations, publication and sharing of algorithms generated.

Assessing clinical progression from subjective cognitive decline to mild cognitive impairment with incomplete multi-modal neuroimages

Accurately assessing clinical progression from subjective cognitive decline (SCD) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial for early intervention of pathological cognitive decline. Multi-modal neuroimaging data such as T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET), help provide objective and supplementary disease biomarkers for computer-aided diagnosis of MCI. However, there are few studies dedicated to SCD progression prediction since subjects usually lack one or more imaging modalities. Besides, one usually has a limited number (e.g., tens) of SCD subjects, negatively affecting model robustness. To this end, we propose a Joint neuroimage Synthesis and Representation Learning (JSRL) framework for SCD conversion prediction using incomplete multi-modal neuroimages. The JSRL contains two components: 1) a generative adversarial network to synthesize missing images and generate multi-modal features, and 2) a classification network to fuse multi-modal features for SCD conversion prediction. The two components are incorporated into a joint learning framework by sharing the same features, encouraging effective fusion of multi-modal features for accurate prediction. A transfer learning strategy is employed in the proposed framework by leveraging model trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) with MRI and fluorodeoxyglucose PET from 863 subjects to both the Chinese Longitudinal Aging Study (CLAS) with only MRI from 76 SCD subjects and the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) with MRI from 235 subjects. Experimental results suggest that the proposed JSRL yields superior performance in SCD and MCI conversion prediction and cross-database neuroimage synthesis, compared with several state-of-the-art methods.

Leveraging machine learning predictive biomarkers to augment the statistical power of clinical trials with baseline magnetic resonance imaging

A key factor in designing randomized clinical trials is the sample size required to achieve a particular level of power to detect the benefit of a treatment. Sample size calculations depend upon the expected benefits of a treatment (effect size), the accuracy of measurement of the primary outcome, and the level of power specified by the investigators. In this study, we show that radiomic models, which leverage complex brain MRI patterns and machine learning, can be utilized in clinical trials with protocols that incorporate baseline MR imaging to significantly increase statistical power to detect treatment effects. Akin to the historical control paradigm, we propose to utilize a radiomic prediction model to generate a pseudo-control sample for each individual in the trial of interest. Because the variability of expected outcome across patients can mask our ability to detect treatment effects, we can increase the power to detect a treatment effect in a clinical trial by reducing that variability through using radiomic predictors as surrogates. We illustrate this method with simulations based on data from two cohorts in different neurologic diseases, Alzheimer's disease and glioblastoma multiforme. We present sample size requirements across a range of effect sizes using conventional analysis and models that include a radiomic predictor. For our Alzheimer's disease cohort, at an effect size of 0.35, total sample size requirements for 80% power declined from 246 to 212 for the endpoint cognitive decline. For our glioblastoma multiforme cohort, at an effect size of 1.65 with the endpoint survival time, total sample size requirements declined from 128 to 74. This methodology can decrease the required sample sizes by as much as 50%, depending on the strength of the radiomic predictor. The power of this method grows with increased accuracy of radiomic prediction, and furthermore, this method is most helpful when treatment effect sizes are small. Neuroimaging biomarkers are a powerful and increasingly common suite of tools that are, in many cases, highly predictive of disease outcomes. Here, we explore the possibility of using MRI-based radiomic biomarkers for the purpose of improving statistical power in clinical trials in the contexts of brain cancer and prodromal Alzheimer's disease. These methods can be applied to a broad range of neurologic diseases using a broad range of predictors of outcome to make clinical trials more efficient.

Multi-channel attention-fusion neural network for brain age estimation: Accuracy, generality, and interpretation with 16,705 healthy MRIs across lifespan

Brain age estimated by machine learning from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images (T1w MRIs) can reveal how brain disorders alter brain aging and can help in the early detection of such disorders. A fundamental step is to build an accurate age estimator from healthy brain MRIs. We focus on this step, and propose a framework to improve the accuracy, generality, and interpretation of age estimation in healthy brain MRIs. For accuracy, we used one of the largest sample sizes (N = 16,705). For each subject, our proposed algorithm first explicitly splits the T1w image, which has been commonly treated as a single-channel 3D image in other studies, into two 3D image channels representing contrast and morphometry information. We further proposed a "fusion-with-attention" deep learning convolutional neural network (FiA-Net) to learn how to best fuse the contrast and morphometry image channels. FiA-Net recognizes varying contributions across image channels at different brain anatomy and different feature layers. In contrast, multi-channel fusion does not exist for brain age estimation, and is mostly attention-free in other medical image analysis tasks (e.g., image synthesis, or segmentation), where treating channels equally may not be optimal. For generality, we used lifespan data 0-97 years of age for real-world utility; and we thoroughly tested FiA-Net for multi-site and multi-scanner generality by two phases of cross-validations in discovery and replication data, compared to most other studies with only one phase of cross-validation. For interpretation, we directly measured each artificial neuron's correlation with the chronological age, compared to other studies looking at the saliency of features where salient features may or may not predict age. Overall, FiA-Net achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.00 years and Pearson correlation r=0.9840 with known chronological ages in healthy brain MRIs 0-97 years of age, comparing favorably with state-of-the-art algorithms and studies for accuracy and generality across sites and datasets. We also provided interpretations on how different artificial neurons and real neuroanatomy contribute to the age estimation.

Prediction of the progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease using a radiomics-integrated model

Objective:

This study aimed to build and validate a radiomics-integrated model with whole-brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to predict the progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD).

Methods:

357 patients with MCI were selected from the ADNI database, which is an open-source database for AD with multicentre cooperation, of which 154 progressed to AD during the 48-month follow-up period. Subjects were divided into a training and test group. For each patient, the baseline T₁WI MR images were automatically segmented into white matter, gray matter and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and radiomics features were extracted from each tissue. Based on the data from the training group, a radiomics signature was built using logistic regression after dimensionality reduction. The radiomics signatures, in combination with the apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) and baseline neuropsychological scales, were used to build an integrated model using machine learning. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and data of the test group were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and reliability of the model, respectively. In addition, the clinical prognostic efficacy of the model was evaluated based on the time of progression from MCI to AD.

Results:

Stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that the APOE4, clinical dementia rating, AD assessment scale, and radiomics signature were independent predictors of MCI progression to AD. The integrated model was constructed based on independent predictors using machine learning. The ROC curve showed that the accuracy of the model in the training and the test sets was 0.814 and 0.807, with a specificity of 0.671 and 0.738, and a sensitivity of 0.822 and 0.745, respectively. In addition, the model had the most significant diagnostic efficacy in predicting MCI progression to AD within 12 months, with an AUC of 0.814, sensitivity of 0.726, and specificity of 0.798.

Conclusion:

The integrated model based on whole-brain radiomics can accurately identify and predict the high-risk population of MCI patients who may progress to AD. Radiomics biomarkers are practical in the precursory stage of such disease.

Improving the Utility of Polygenic Risk Scores as a Biomarker for Alzheimer's Disease

The treatment of complex and multifactorial diseases constitutes a big challenge in day-to-day clinical practice. As many parameters influence clinical phenotypes, accurate diagnosis and prompt therapeutic management is often difficult. Significant research and investment focuses on state-of-the-art genomic and metagenomic analyses in the burgeoning field of Precision (or Personalized) Medicine with genome-wide-association-studies (GWAS) helping in this direction by linking patient genotypes at specific polymorphic sites (single-nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) to the specific phenotype. The generation of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) is a relatively novel statistical method that associates the collective genotypes at many of a person’s SNPs to a trait or disease. As GWAS sample sizes increase, PRSs may become a powerful tool for prevention, early diagnosis and treatment. However, the complexity and multidimensionality of genetic and environmental contributions to phenotypes continue to pose significant challenges for the clinical, broad-scale use of PRSs. To improve the value of PRS measures, we propose a novel pipeline which might better utilize GWAS results and improve the utility of PRS when applied to Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), as a paradigm of multifactorial disease with existing large GWAS datasets that have not yet achieved significant clinical impact. We propose a refined approach for the construction of AD PRS improved by (1), taking into consideration the genetic loci where the SNPs are located, (2) evaluating the post-translational impact of SNPs on coding and non-coding regions by focusing on overlap with open chromatin data and SNPs that are expression quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and (3) scoring and annotating the severity of the associated clinical phenotype into the PRS. Open chromatin and eQTL data need to be carefully selected based on tissue/cell type of origin (e.g., brain, excitatory neurons). Applying such filters to traditional PRS on GWAS studies of complex diseases like AD, can produce a set of SNPs weighted according to our algorithm and a more useful PRS. Our proposed methodology may pave the way for new applications of genomic machine and deep learning pipelines to GWAS datasets in an effort to identify novel clinically useful genetic biomarkers for complex diseases like AD.

Inflammatory markers and imaging patterns of advanced brain aging in the general population

Inflammaging describes the complexity between low-grade chronic inflammation with the pathogenesis of brain aging and Alzheimer´s disease (AD). We aimed to find associations of inflammatory markers: i) white blood cell count (WBC), ii) high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and iii) fibrinogen with brain structures, sensitive neuroimaging markers of advanced brain aging and AD-like atrophy, and cognitive aging scores. We analyzed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of 2204 participants from the Study of Health in Pomerania-2 (SHIP-2) and SHIP-Trend (55.6% women, mean age 52.4±13.7 years). Associations of the inflammatory markers with specific brain signatures of brain aging (SPARE-BA), AD-like brain atrophy (SPARE-AD) and white matter disease (white matter hyperintensities volume (WMHV)) were investigated. Furthermore we explored their association with general brain structures including total brain volume (TBV), gray matter volume (GMV), and white matter volume (WMV), as well as cognitive scores (Nurnberger Age Inventory (NAI); Verbal Learning and Memory Test (VLMT). We adjusted for multiple vascular risk factors (VRF; e.g. smoking and blood pressure) and corresponding medication use to take their brain aging effects into account and corrected for false-discovery rate (FDR). Results:WBC was inversely associated with SPARE-BA (FDR-adjusted p=0.003), TBV (FDR-adjusted p=0.019) and GMV (FDR-adjusted p= 0.017). GMV was also inversely associated with hs-CRP (FDR-adjusted p=0.039) and fibrinogen (FDR-adjusted p=0.039). None of the inflammatory markers was associated with WMHV. Regression analysis also revealed a trend-level interaction between intake of antiinflammatory medication and hs-CRP with brain aging (SPARE-BA; FDR-adjusted p=0.062). Inflammatatory markers are associated with neuroimaging markers, with elevated WBC leading to significant acceleration in brain aging patterns but not with AD-like imaging structural changes. Given the overlap between accelerated brain aging and AD-like atrophy, increased WBC might be associated with global dementia symptoms due to this overlap in atrophy patterns. Elevated WBC may be not causal to preclinical AD dementia, but an accessory symptom of inflammaging. At population level, our results support the relevant roles of inflammatory markers on brain aging related atrophy.

Transfer learning for predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to dementia of Alzheimer's type based on a three-dimensional convolutional neural network

Dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT) is associated with devastating and irreversible cognitive decline. Predicting which patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will progress to DAT is an ongoing challenge in the field. We developed a deep learning model to predict conversion from MCI to DAT. Structural magnetic resonance imaging scans were used as input to a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network. The 3-dimensional convolutional neural network was trained using transfer learning; in the source task, normal control and DAT scans were used to pretrain the model. This pretrained model was then retrained on the target task of classifying which MCI patients converted to DAT. Our model resulted in 82.4% classification accuracy at the target task, outperforming current models in the field. Next, we visualized brain regions that significantly contribute to the prediction of MCI conversion using an occlusion map approach. Contributory regions included the pons, amygdala, and hippocampus. Finally, we showed that the model's prediction value is significantly correlated with rates of change in clinical assessment scores, indicating that the model is able to predict an individual patient's future cognitive decline. This information, in conjunction with the identified anatomical features, will aid in building a personalized therapeutic strategy for individuals with MCI.

Predicting Alzheimer's conversion in mild cognitive impairment patients using longitudinal neuroimaging and clinical markers

Patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have a high risk for conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Early diagnose of AD in MCI subjects could help to slow or halt the disease progression. Selecting a set of relevant markers from multimodal data to predict conversion from MCI to probable AD has become a challenging task. The aim of this paper is to quantify the impact of longitudinal predictive models with single- or multisource data for predicting MCI-to-AD conversion and identifying a very small subset of features that are highly predictive of conversion. We developed predictive models of MCI-to-AD progression that combine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based markers (cortical thickness and volume of subcortical structures) with neuropsychological tests. These models were built with longitudinal data and validated using baseline values. By using a linear mixed effects approach, we modeled the longitudinal trajectories of the markers. A set of longitudinal features potentially discriminating between MCI subjects who convert to dementia and those who remain stable over a period of 3 years was obtained. Classifier were trained using the marginal longitudinal trajectory residues from the selected features. Our best models predicted conversion with 77% accuracy at baseline (AUC = 0.855, 84% sensitivity, 70% specificity). As more visits were available, longitudinal predictive models improved their predictions with 84% accuracy (AUC = 0.912, 83% sensitivity, 84% specificity). The proposed approach was developed, trained and evaluated using the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset with a total of 2491 visits from 610 subjects.

Default Mode Network Connectivity Moderates the Relationship Between the APOE Genotype and Cognition and Individualizes Identification Across the Alzheimer's Disease Spectrum

Although previous studies have investigated the effects of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 genotype on the default mode network (DMN) in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) spectrum, it is still unclear how the APOE genotype regulates the DMN and subsequently affects cognitive decline in the AD spectrum. One hundred sixty-nine subjects with resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data and neuropsychological test scores were selected from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. The main effects and interaction of the APOE genotype and disease status on the DMN were explored. A moderation analysis was performed to investigate the relationship among the APOE genotype, DMN connectivity, and cognition. Additionally, the pair-wised DMN connectivity was used to classify AD spectrum, and the classification accuracy was validated. Compared to APOEɛ4 non-carriers, APOEɛ4 carriers showed the opposite trajectory of DMN connectivity across the AD spectrum. Specifically, the strengths in the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) connecting with the right precuneus, insular, and fusiform area (FFA) were positively correlated with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores in APOEɛ4 non-carriers but not in APOEɛ4 carriers. Furthermore, PCC-right FFA connectivity could moderate the effects of the APOE genotype on MMSE scores across the disease groups. More importantly, using a receiver operating characteristic analysis, these altered connectivities yielded strong classification powers in a pathological stage-dependent manner in the AD spectrum. These findings first identified the intrinsic DMN connectivity moderating the effect of the APOE genotype on cognition and provided a pathological stage-dependent neuroimaging biomarker for early differentiation of the AD spectrum.

Neuroimaging advances regarding subjective cognitive decline in preclinical Alzheimer's disease

Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is regarded as the first clinical manifestation in the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) continuum. Investigating populations with SCD is important for understanding the early pathological mechanisms of AD and identifying SCD-related biomarkers, which are critical for the early detection of AD. With the advent of advanced neuroimaging techniques, such as positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), accumulating evidence has revealed structural and functional brain alterations related to the symptoms of SCD. In this review, we summarize the main imaging features and key findings regarding SCD related to AD, from local and regional data to connectivity-based imaging measures, with the aim of delineating a multimodal imaging signature of SCD due to AD. Additionally, the interaction of SCD with other risk factors for dementia due to AD, such as age and the Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ɛ4 status, has also been described. Finally, the possible explanations for the inconsistent and heterogeneous neuroimaging findings observed in individuals with SCD are discussed, along with future directions. Overall, the literature reveals a preferential vulnerability of AD signature regions in SCD in the context of AD, supporting the notion that individuals with SCD share a similar pattern of brain alterations with patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia due to AD. We conclude that these neuroimaging techniques, particularly multimodal neuroimaging techniques, have great potential for identifying the underlying pathological alterations associated with SCD. More longitudinal studies with larger sample sizes combined with more advanced imaging modeling approaches such as artificial intelligence are still warranted to establish their clinical utility.

The Brain Chart of Aging: Machine-learning analytics reveals links between brain aging, white matter disease, amyloid burden, and cognition in the iSTAGING consortium of 10,216 harmonized MR scans

INTRODUCTION

Relationships between brain atrophy patterns of typical aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD), white matter disease, cognition, and AD neuropathology were investigated via machine learning in a large harmonized magnetic resonance imaging database (11 studies; 10,216 subjects).

METHODS

Three brain signatures were calculated: Brain-age, AD-like neurodegeneration, and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs). Brain Charts measured and displayed the relationships of these signatures to cognition and molecular biomarkers of AD.

RESULTS

WMHs were associated with advanced brain aging, AD-like atrophy, poorer cognition, and AD neuropathology in mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/AD and cognitively normal (CN) subjects. High WMH volume was associated with brain aging and cognitive decline occurring in an ≈10-year period in CN subjects. WMHs were associated with doubling the likelihood of amyloid beta (Aβ) positivity after age 65. Brain aging, AD-like atrophy, and WMHs were better predictors of cognition than chronological age in MCI/AD.

DISCUSSION

A Brain Chart quantifying brain-aging trajectories was established, enabling the systematic evaluation of individuals' brain-aging patterns relative to this large consortium.

Longitudinal survival analysis and two-group comparison for predicting the progression of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neuropsychological measurements (NMs) allow a noninvasive means of following the subtle anatomical changes occurring during the evolution of AD.

NEW METHOD

This paper compared two approaches for the construction of longitudinal predictive models: a) two-group comparison between converter and nonconverter MCI subjects and b) longitudinal survival analysis. Predictive models combined MRI-based markers with NMs and included demographic and clinical information as covariates. Both approaches employed linear mixed effects modeling to capture the longitudinal trajectories of the markers. The two-group comparison approaches used linear discriminant analysis and the survival analysis used risk ratios obtained from the extended Cox model and logistic regression.

RESULTS

The proposed approaches were developed and evaluated using the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset with a total of 1330 visits from 321 subjects. With both approaches, a very small number of features were selected. These markers are easily interpretable, generating robust, verifiable and reliable predictive models. Our best models predicted conversion with 78% accuracy at baseline (AUC = 0.860, 79% sensitivity, 76% specificity). As more visits were made, longitudinal predictive models improved their predictions with 85% accuracy (AUC = 0.944, 86% sensitivity, 85% specificity).

COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD

Unlike the recently published models, there was also an improvement in the prediction accuracy of the conversion to AD when considering the longitudinal trajectory of the patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival-based predictive models showed a better balance between sensitivity and specificity with respect to the models based on the two-group comparison approach.

Assessment of Alzheimer's Disease Based on Texture Analysis of the Entorhinal Cortex

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers based on larger-scale tissue neurodegeneration changes, such as atrophy, are currently widely used. Texture analysis evaluates the statistical properties of the tissue image quantitatively; therefore, it could detect smaller-scale changes of neurodegeneration. Entorhinal cortex is the first region affected, and no study has investigated texture analysis on this region before. This study aims to differentiate AD patients from Normal Control (NC) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) subjects using entorhinal cortex texture features. Furthermore, it was evaluated whether texture has association to MCI beyond that of volume, to evaluate if atrophy development may precede. Texture features were extracted from 194 NC, 200 MCI, 84 MCI who converted to AD (MCIc), and 130 AD subjects. Receiving operating characteristic curves determined the performance of the various features in discriminating the groups, and a predictive model was used to predict conversion of MCIc subjects to AD. An area under the curve (AUC) of 0.872, 0.710, 0.730, and 0.764 was seen between NC vs. AD, NC vs. MCI, MCI vs. MCIc, and MCI vs. AD subjects, respectively. Including entorhinal cortex volume improved the AUCs to 0.914, 0.740, 0.756, and 0.780, respectively. For the disease prediction, binary logistic regression was applied on five randomly selected test groups and achieved on average AUC’s of 0.760 and 0.764 on the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Entorhinal cortex texture features were significantly different between the four groups and in many cases provided better results compared to other methods such as volumetry.

Prediction of Upstaged Ductal Carcinoma In Situ Using Forced Labeling and Domain Adaptation

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to use adjunctive classes to improve a predictive model whose performance is limited by the common problems of small numbers of primary cases, high feature dimensionality, and poor class separability. Specifically, our clinical task is to use mammographic features to predict whether ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) identified at needle core biopsy will be later upstaged or shown to contain invasive breast cancer.

METHODS

To improve the prediction of pure DCIS (negative) versus upstaged DCIS (positive) cases, this study considers the adjunctive roles of two related classes: atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH), a non-cancer type of breast abnormity, and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC), with 113 computer vision based mammographic features extracted from each case. To improve the baseline Model A's classification of pure vs. upstaged DCIS, we designed three different strategies (Models B, C, D) with different ways of embedding features or inputs.

RESULTS

Based on ROC analysis, the baseline Model A performed with AUC of 0.614 (95% CI, 0.496-0.733). All three new models performed better than the baseline, with domain adaptation (Model D) performing the best with an AUC of 0.697 (95% CI, 0.595-0.797).

CONCLUSION

We improved the prediction performance of DCIS upstaging by embedding two related pathology classes in different training phases.

SIGNIFICANCE

The three new strategies of embedding related class data all outperformed the baseline model, thus demonstrating not only feature similarities among these different classes, but also the potential for improving classification by using other related classes.

Prediction of Cognitive Decline in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy and Mild Cognitive Impairment by EEG, MRI, and Neuropsychology

Cognitive decline is a severe concern of patients with mild cognitive impairment. Also, in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy, memory problems are a frequently encountered problem with potential progression. On the background of a unifying hypothesis for cognitive decline, we merged knowledge from dementia and epilepsy research in order to identify biomarkers with a high predictive value for cognitive decline across and beyond these groups that can be fed into intelligent systems. We prospectively assessed patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (N = 9), mild cognitive impairment (N = 19), and subjective cognitive complaints (N = 4) and healthy controls (N = 18). All had structural cerebral MRI, EEG at rest and during declarative verbal memory performance, and a neuropsychological assessment which was repeated after 18 months. Cognitive decline was defined as significant change on neuropsychological subscales. We extracted volumetric and shape features from MRI and brain network measures from EEG and fed these features alongside a baseline testing in neuropsychology into a machine learning framework with feature subset selection and 5-fold cross validation. Out of 50 patients, 27 had a decline over time in executive functions, 23 in visual-verbal memory, 23 in divided attention, and 7 patients had an increase in depression scores. The best sensitivity/specificity for decline was 72%/82% for executive functions based on a feature combination from MRI volumetry and EEG partial coherence during recall of memories; 95%/74% for visual-verbal memory by combination of MRI-wavelet features and neuropsychology; 84%/76% for divided attention by combination of MRI-wavelet features and neuropsychology; and 81%/90% for increase of depression by combination of EEG partial directed coherence factor at rest and neuropsychology. Combining information from EEG, MRI, and neuropsychology in order to predict neuropsychological changes in a heterogeneous population could create a more general model of cognitive performance decline.

The Development of a Practical Artificial Intelligence Tool for Diagnosing and Evaluating Autism Spectrum Disorder: Multicenter Study

Background

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder with an unknown etiology. Early diagnosis and intervention are key to improving outcomes for patients with ASD. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) has been widely used in clinics to facilitate the diagnosis of brain diseases such as brain tumors. However, sMRI is less frequently used to investigate neurological and psychiatric disorders, such as ASD, owing to the subtle, if any, anatomical changes of the brain.

Objective

This study aimed to investigate the possibility of identifying structural patterns in the brain of patients with ASD as potential biomarkers in the diagnosis and evaluation of ASD in clinics.

Methods

We developed a novel 2-level histogram-based morphometry (HBM) classification framework in which an algorithm based on a 3D version of the histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) was used to extract features from sMRI data. We applied this framework to distinguish patients with ASD from healthy controls using 4 datasets from the second edition of the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange, including the ETH Zürich (ETH), NYU Langone Medical Center: Sample 1, Oregon Health and Science University, and Stanford University (SU) sites. We used a stratified 10-fold cross-validation method to evaluate the model performance, and we applied the Naive Bayes approach to identify the predictive ASD-related brain regions based on classification contributions of each HOG feature.

Results

On the basis of the 3D HOG feature extraction method, our proposed HBM framework achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of >0.75 in each dataset, with the highest AUC of 0.849 in the ETH site. We compared the 3D HOG algorithm with the original 2D HOG algorithm, which showed an accuracy improvement of >4% in each dataset, with the highest improvement of 14% (6/42) in the SU site. A comparison of the 3D HOG algorithm with the scale-invariant feature transform algorithm showed an AUC improvement of >18% in each dataset. Furthermore, we identified ASD-related brain regions based on the sMRI images. Some of these regions (eg, frontal gyrus, temporal gyrus, cingulate gyrus, postcentral gyrus, precuneus, caudate, and hippocampus) are known to be implicated in ASD in prior neuroimaging literature. We also identified less well-known regions that may play unrecognized roles in ASD and be worth further investigation.

Conclusions

Our research suggested that it is possible to identify neuroimaging biomarkers that can distinguish patients with ASD from healthy controls based on the more cost-effective sMRI images of the brain. We also demonstrated the potential of applying data-driven artificial intelligence technology in the clinical setting of neurological and psychiatric disorders, which usually harbor subtle anatomical changes in the brain that are often invisible to the human eye.

Maternal Dietary Intake of Omega-3 Fatty Acids Correlates Positively with Regional Brain Volumes in 1-Month-Old Term Infants

Maternal nutrition is an important factor for infant neurodevelopment. However, prior magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on maternal nutrients and infant brain have focused mostly on preterm infants or on few specific nutrients and few specific brain regions. We present a first study in term-born infants, comprehensively correlating 73 maternal nutrients with infant brain morphometry at the regional (61 regions) and voxel (over 300 000 voxel) levels. Both maternal nutrition intake diaries and infant MRI were collected at 1 month of life (0.9 ± 0.5 months) for 92 term-born infants (among them, 54 infants were purely breastfed and 19 were breastfed most of the time). Intake of nutrients was assessed via standardized food frequency questionnaire. No nutrient was significantly correlated with any of the volumes of the 61 autosegmented brain regions. However, increased volumes within subregions of the frontal cortex and corpus callosum at the voxel level were positively correlated with maternal intake of omega-3 fatty acids, retinol (vitamin A) and vitamin B12, both with and without correction for postmenstrual age and sex (P < 0.05, q < 0.05 after false discovery rate correction). Omega-3 fatty acids remained significantly correlated with infant brain volumes after subsetting to the 54 infants who were exclusively breastfed, but retinol and vitamin B12 did not. This provides an impetus for future larger studies to better characterize the effect size of dietary variation and correlation with neurodevelopmental outcomes, which can lead to improved nutritional guidance during pregnancy and lactation.

Neuroimaging and analytical methods for studying the pathways from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease: protocol for a rapid systematic review

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder commonly associated with deficits of cognition and changes in behavior. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is the prodromal stage of AD that is defined by slight cognitive decline. Not all with MCI progress to AD dementia. Thus, the accurate prediction of progression to Alzheimer's, particularly in the stage of MCI could potentially offer developing treatments to delay or prevent the transition process. The objective of the present study is to investigate the most recent neuroimaging procedures in the domain of prediction of transition from MCI to AD dementia for clinical applications and to systematically discuss the machine learning techniques used for the prediction of MCI conversion.

METHODS

Electronic databases including PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science will be searched from January 1, 2017, to the date of search commencement to provide a rapid review of the most recent studies that have investigated the prediction of conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's using neuroimaging modalities in randomized trial or observational studies. Two reviewers will screen full texts of included papers using predefined eligibility criteria. Studies will be included if addressed research on AD dementia and MCI, explained the results in a way that would be able to report the performance measures such as the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Only studies addressed Alzheimer's type of dementia and its early-stage MCI using neuroimaging modalities will be included. We will exclude other forms of dementia such as vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, and Parkinson's disease. The risk of bias in individual studies will be appraised using an appropriate tool. If feasible, we will conduct a random effects meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity.

DISCUSSION

The information gathered in our study will establish the extent of the evidence underlying the prediction of conversion to AD dementia from its early stage and will provide a rigorous and updated synthesis of neuroimaging modalities allied with the data analysis techniques used to measure the brain changes during the conversion process.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO,CRD42019133402.

Structural magnetic resonance imaging for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease is the symptomatic predementia phase of Alzheimer's disease dementia, characterised by cognitive and functional impairment not severe enough to fulfil the criteria for dementia. In clinical samples, people with amnestic MCI are at high risk of developing Alzheimer's disease dementia, with annual rates of progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease estimated at approximately 10% to 15% compared with the base incidence rates of Alzheimer's disease dementia of 1% to 2% per year.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia as a reference standard (delayed verification). To investigate sources of heterogeneity in accuracy, such as the use of qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements, including manual or automatic (MRI) techniques, or the length of follow-up, and age of participants. MRI was evaluated as an add-on test in addition to clinical diagnosis of MCI to improve early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI.

SEARCH METHODS

On 29 January 2019 we searched Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement's Specialised Register and the databases, MEDLINE, Embase, BIOSIS Previews, Science Citation Index, PsycINFO, and LILACS. We also searched the reference lists of all eligible studies identified by the electronic searches.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered cohort studies of any size that included prospectively recruited people of any age with a diagnosis of MCI. We included studies that compared the diagnostic test accuracy of baseline structural MRI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia (delayed verification). We did not exclude studies on the basis of length of follow-up. We included studies that used either qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements of MRI to detect atrophy in the whole brain or in specific brain regions, such as the hippocampus, medial temporal lobe, lateral ventricles, entorhinal cortex, medial temporal gyrus, lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, and cortical grey matter.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four teams of two review authors each independently reviewed titles and abstracts of articles identified by the search strategy. Two teams of two review authors each independently assessed the selected full-text articles for eligibility, extracted data and solved disagreements by consensus. Two review authors independently assessed the quality of studies using the QUADAS-2 tool. We used the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model to fit summary ROC curves and to obtain overall measures of relative accuracy in subgroup analyses. We also used these models to obtain pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity when sufficient data sets were available.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 33 studies, published from 1999 to 2019, with 3935 participants of whom 1341 (34%) progressed to Alzheimer's disease dementia and 2594 (66%) did not. Of the participants who did not progress to Alzheimer's disease dementia, 2561 (99%) remained stable MCI and 33 (1%) progressed to other types of dementia. The median proportion of women was 53% and the mean age of participants ranged from 63 to 87 years (median 73 years). The mean length of clinical follow-up ranged from 1 to 7.6 years (median 2 years). Most studies were of poor methodological quality due to risk of bias for participant selection or the index test, or both. Most of the included studies reported data on the volume of the total hippocampus (pooled mean sensitivity 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.80); pooled mean specificity 0.71 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.77); 22 studies, 2209 participants). This evidence was of low certainty due to risk of bias and inconsistency. Seven studies reported data on the atrophy of the medial temporal lobe (mean sensitivity 0.64 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.73); mean specificity 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.76); 1077 participants) and five studies on the volume of the lateral ventricles (mean sensitivity 0.57 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.65); mean specificity 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.70); 1077 participants). This evidence was of moderate certainty due to risk of bias. Four studies with 529 participants analysed the volume of the total entorhinal cortex and four studies with 424 participants analysed the volume of the whole brain. We did not estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity for the volume of these two regions because available data were sparse and heterogeneous. We could not statistically evaluate the volumes of the lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, medial temporal gyrus, or cortical grey matter assessed in small individual studies. We found no evidence of a difference between studies in the accuracy of the total hippocampal volume with regards to duration of follow-up or age of participants, but the manual MRI technique was superior to automatic techniques in mixed (mostly indirect) comparisons. We did not assess the relative accuracy of the volumes of different brain regions measured by MRI because only indirect comparisons were available, studies were heterogeneous, and the overall accuracy of all regions was moderate.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The volume of hippocampus or medial temporal lobe, the most studied brain regions, showed low sensitivity and specificity and did not qualify structural MRI as a stand-alone add-on test for an early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI. This is consistent with international guidelines, which recommend imaging to exclude non-degenerative or surgical causes of cognitive impairment and not to diagnose dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. In view of the low quality of most of the included studies, the findings of this review should be interpreted with caution. Future research should not focus on a single biomarker, but rather on combinations of biomarkers to improve an early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Selection of memory clinic patients for CSF biomarker assessment can be restricted to a quarter of cases by using computerized decision support, without compromising diagnostic accuracy

INTRODUCTION

An accurate and timely diagnosis for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important, both for care and research. The current diagnostic criteria allow the use of CSF biomarkers to provide pathophysiological support for the diagnosis of AD. How these criteria should be operationalized by clinicians is unclear. Tools that guide in selecting patients in which CSF biomarkers have clinical utility are needed. We evaluated computerized decision support to select patients for CSF biomarker determination.

METHODS

We included 535 subjects (139 controls, 286 Alzheimer's disease dementia, 82 frontotemporal dementia and 28 vascular dementia) from three clinical cohorts. Positive (AD like) and negative (normal) CSF biomarker profiles were simulated to estimate whether knowledge of CSF biomarkers would impact (confidence in) diagnosis. We applied these simulated CSF values and combined them with demographic, neuropsychology and MRI data to initiate CSF testing (computerized decision support approach). We compared proportion of CSF measurements and patients diagnosed with sufficient confidence (probability of correct class ≥0.80) based on an algorithm with scenarios without CSF (only neuropsychology, MRI and APOE), CSF according to the appropriate use criteria (AUC) and CSF for all patients.

RESULTS

The computerized decision support approach recommended CSF testing in 140 (26%) patients, which yielded a diagnosis with sufficient confidence in 379 (71%) of all patients. This approach was more efficient than CSF in none (0% CSF, 308 (58%) diagnosed), CSF selected based on AUC (295 (55%) CSF, 350 (65%) diagnosed) or CSF in all (100% CSF, 348 (65%) diagnosed).

CONCLUSIONS

We used a computerized decision support with simulated CSF results in controls and patients with different types of dementia. This approach can support clinicians in making a balanced decision in ordering additional biomarker testing. Computer-supported prediction restricts CSF testing to only 26% of cases, without compromising diagnostic accuracy.

Challenges of Integrative Disease Modeling in Alzheimer's Disease

Dementia-related diseases like Alzheimer's Disease (AD) have a tremendous social and economic cost. A deeper understanding of its underlying pathophysiologies may provide an opportunity for earlier detection and therapeutic intervention. Previous approaches for characterizing AD were targeted at single aspects of the disease. Yet, due to the complex nature of AD, the success of these approaches was limited. However, in recent years, advancements in integrative disease modeling, built on a wide range of AD biomarkers, have taken a global view on the disease, facilitating more comprehensive analysis and interpretation. Integrative AD models can be sorted in two primary types, namely hypothetical models and data-driven models. The latter group split into two subgroups: (i) Models that use traditional statistical methods such as linear models, (ii) Models that take advantage of more advanced artificial intelligence approaches such as machine learning. While many integrative AD models have been published over the last decade, their impact on clinical practice is limited. There exist major challenges in the course of integrative AD modeling, namely data missingness and censoring, imprecise human-involved priori knowledge, model reproducibility, dataset interoperability, dataset integration, and model interpretability. In this review, we highlight recent advancements and future possibilities of integrative modeling in the field of AD research, showcase and discuss the limitations and challenges involved, and finally, propose avenues to address several of these challenges.

Protein-based amide proton transfer-weighted MR imaging of amnestic mild cognitive impairment

Amide proton transfer-weighted (APTw) MRI is a novel molecular imaging technique that can noninvasively detect endogenous cellular proteins and peptides in tissue. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of protein-based APTw MRI in characterizing amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). Eighteen patients with confirmed aMCI and 18 matched normal controls were scanned at 3 Tesla. The APTw, as well as conventional magnetization transfer ratio (MTR), signal differences between aMCI and normal groups were assessed by the independent samples t-test, and the receiver-operator-characteristic analysis was used to assess the diagnostic performance of APTw. When comparing the normal control group, aMCI brains typically had relatively higher APTw signals. Quantitatively, APTw intensity values were significantly higher in nine of 12 regions of interest in aMCI patients than in normal controls. The largest areas under the receiver-operator-characteristic curves were 0.88 (gray matter in occipital lobe) and 0.82 (gray matter in temporal lobe, white matter in occipital lobe) in diagnosing aMCI patients. On the contrary, MTR intensity values were significantly higher in only three of 12 regions of interest in the aMCI group. Additionally, the age dependency analyses revealed that these cross-sectional APTw/MTR signals had an increasing trend with age in most brain regions for normal controls, but a decreasing trend with age in most brain regions for aMCI patients. Our early results show the potential of the APTw signal as a new imaging biomarker for the noninvasive molecular diagnosis of aMCI.

Mining multi-site clinical data to develop machine learning MRI biomarkers: application to neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Secondary and retrospective use of hospital-hosted clinical data provides a time- and cost-efficient alternative to prospective clinical trials for biomarker development. This study aims to create a retrospective clinical dataset of Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) and clinical records of neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), from which clinically-relevant analytic algorithms can be developed for MRI-based HIE lesion detection and outcome prediction.

METHODS

This retrospective study will use clinical registries and big data informatics tools to build a multi-site dataset that contains structural and diffusion MRI, clinical information including hospital course, short-term outcomes (during infancy), and long-term outcomes (~ 2 years of age) for at least 300 patients from multiple hospitals.

DISCUSSION

Within machine learning frameworks, we will test whether the quantified deviation from our recently-developed normative brain atlases can detect abnormal regions and predict outcomes for individual patients as accurately as, or even more accurately, than human experts. Trial Registration Not applicable. This study protocol mines existing clinical data thus does not meet the ICMJE definition of a clinical trial that requires registration.

[Neurocognitive aging and cognitive disorders]

Aging is the leading risk factor of the most common cognitive disorders, primarily Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. These diseases have a progressive course and pathological underlying processes develop long before the onset of clinical signs of cognitive impairment. In the context of current trends in population aging and the steady increase in the number of patients with dementia, the search for factors contributing to the acceleration of neurocognitive aging processes, as well as factors with a modifying effect on these processes, is a key element in the effective management of elderly patients.

Medial temporal lobe atrophy and posterior atrophy scales normative values

OBJECTIVES

The medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) and the posterior atrophy (PA) scales allow to assess the degree hippocampal and parietal atrophy from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. Despite reliable, easy and widespread employment, appropriate normative values are still missing. We aim to provide norms for the Italian population.

METHODS

Two independent raters assigned the highest MTA and PA score between hemispheres, based on 3D T1-weighted MRI of 936 Italian Brain Normative Archive subjects (age: mean ± SD: 50.2 ± 14.7, range: 20-84; MMSE>26 or CDR = 0). The inter-rater agreement was assessed with the absolute intraclass correlation coefficient (aICC). We assessed the association between MTA and PA scores and sociodemographic features and APOE status, and normative data were established by age decade based on percentile distributions.

RESULTS

Raters agreed in 90% of cases for MTA (aICC = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.69-0.98) and in 86% for PA (aICC = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.58-0.98). For both rating scales, score distribution was skewed, with MTA = 0 in 38% of the population and PA = 0 in 52%, while a score ≥ 2 was only observed in 12% for MTA and in 10% for PA. Median denoted overall hippocampal (MTA: median = 1, IQR = 0-1) and parietal (PA: median = 0, IQR = 0-1) integrity. The 90th percentile of the age-specific distributions increased from 1 (at age 20-59) for both scales, to 2 for PA over age 60, and up to 4 for MTA over age 80. Gender, education and APOE status did not significantly affect the percentile distributions in the whole sample, nor in the subset over age 60.

CONCLUSIONS

Our normative data for the MTA and PA scales are consistent with previous studies and overcome their main limitations (in particular uneven representation of ages and missing percentile distributions), defining the age-specific norms to be considered for proper brain atrophy assessment.

A method for inferring regional origins of neurodegeneration

Alzheimer's disease, the most common form of dementia, is characterized by the emergence and spread of senile plaques and neurofibrillary tangles, causing widespread neurodegeneration. Though the progression of Alzheimer's disease is considered to be stereotyped, the significant variability within clinical populations obscures this interpretation on the individual level. Of particular clinical importance is understanding where exactly pathology, e.g. tau, emerges in each patient and how the incipient atrophy pattern relates to future spread of disease. Here we demonstrate a newly developed graph theoretical method of inferring prior disease states in patients with Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment using an established network diffusion model and an L1-penalized optimization algorithm. Although the 'seeds' of origin using our inference method successfully reproduce known trends in Alzheimer's disease staging on a population level, we observed that the high degree of heterogeneity between patients at baseline is also reflected in their seeds. Additionally, the individualized seeds are significantly more predictive of future atrophy than a single seed placed at the hippocampus. Our findings illustrate that understanding where disease originates in individuals is critical to determining how it progresses and that our method allows us to infer early stages of disease from atrophy patterns observed at diagnosis.