Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach

Dynamic modeling of the occurrence, sources, and environmental behavior of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in Zhelin Bay, China

This study analyzed polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in Zhelin Bay, China, investigating their occurrence, sources, and environmental behavior. PBDE congeners were detected in all sampled media. The Σ13PBDE concentrations in the dissolved phase ranged from 1.04 to 41.40 ng/L, while the concentrations ranged in suspended particulate matter from 0.02 to 12.56 ng/L. In sediments, PBDE concentrations ranged from 1.41 to 8.57 ng/g. The higher proportion of PBDEs in the dissolved phase in the bay than in the estuary is attributable to the type of PBDE products used in the aquacultural process in Zhelin Bay. Moreover, correlation analysis between PBDE concentrations and environmental parameters showed that the primary factor influencing PBDE concentrations in Zhelin Bay sediments may shift from riverine inputs to aquaculture. Principal component analysis and positive matrix factorization revealed that PBDEs in the water of Zhelin Bay primarily originated from the degradation of octa-BDE, deca-BDE, and penta-BDE products employed in aquaculture. In contrast, the PBDEs in Zhelin Bay sediments mainly originated from riverine inputs. In addition, a level IV dynamic fugacity-based multimedia model was used to simulate the temporal variation of PBDE concentrations in Zhelin Bay. Modeled short-term trends showed a relatively swift transport of PBDE congeners in the water column to the atmosphere and sediments. Over the long term, sediment concentrations gradually decreased, in contrast to the less rapid declines observed in the atmosphere and water. Furthermore, this study revealed that the transport and transformation processes of PBDEs in the Zhelin Bay environment were considerably influenced by the diffusion coefficient in water, the water-side mass transfer coefficient at the water-sediment interface, the sediment resuspension rate, and the organic carbon-water partition coefficient.

Effects of storm runoff on the spatial-temporal variation and stratified water quality in Biliuhe Reservoir, a drinking water reservoir

Stormflow runoff is an important non-point source of pollution in drinking water reservoirs. Storm runoff is usually very turbid and contains a high concentration of organic matter, therefore affecting water quality when it enters reservoirs. In order to investigate the impact of storm runoff on spatial-temporal variation and stratification of water quality during this rainstorm event, the inflow process of the storm runoff was studied through a combination of field investigation and simulation using the Delft3D-Flow model. Water samples were collected from Biliuhe Reservoir at four different periods: before storm runoff, storm runoff flood peak period, 1 week after storm runoff, and 5 weeks after storm runoff. The results showed that the input of storm runoff resulted in a significant increase in the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the reservoir water, especially in the reservoir entrance. The concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) gradually decreased after the flood peak period; however, the average concentrations of TN and TP in the entire reservoir remained higher than those before the storm runoff levels for an extended duration. The storm runoff will greatly contribute to the contamination of water quality in a reservoir, and the water quality cannot be quickly restored by self-purification in the short term. During the flood peak period, under the influence of density current, the electrical conductivity (EC) and turbidity increased significantly in the water depth of 10-15 m, so that the reservoir water had obvious stratification between 10 and 15 m. The form of pollutants in storm runoff was mostly in particle phosphorus. Total particulate phosphorus (TPP) concentration was 0.015 ± 0.011 mg/L, accounting for 44.12% of total phosphorus (TP) concentration in storm runoff flood peak period. The process of a rainstorm caused runoff, which carried high levels of turbidity, particulate phosphorus, and organic matter. The storm runoff disrupts the stratification of the reservoir water. In terms of vertical distribution, the turbidity in the reservoir area increased to 73.75 NTU. Therefore, the occurrence of significant turbidity density flow in the reservoir is frequently accompanied by intense rainfall events. Gaining insights into the impact of storm runoff on the vertical distribution of reservoir turbidity can help managers in selecting an appropriate inlet height to mitigate high turbidity outflow.

The Ripple Effect of Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts on Water Quality and Hydrology in Addis Ababa City (Akaki Catchment)

This research aimed to evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality in the Akaki catchment, which provides water to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was performed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model and an ensemble of four global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The climate data were downscaled and bias-corrected using the CMhyd tool and calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP software package. Change points and patterns in annual rainfall and temperature were determined using the homogeneity test and Mann-Kendell trend test. Water quality data were obtained from Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA), and more samples were taken and analyzed in accordance with APHA recommended procedures. The SWAT model output was then used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and water quality. Rainfall increased by 19.39 mm/year under SSP2-4.5 and 12.8 mm/year under SSP8.5. Maximum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr for SSP2-4.5 and 0.04°C/yr for SSP5-8.5. Minimum temperature increased by 0.03°C/yr under SSP2-4.5 and 0.07°C/yr under SSP5-8.5. This warming will augment the evapotranspiration rate which in turn will have a negative impact on the freshwater availability. Streamflow will increase by 5% under SSP2-4.5 and 9.49% under SSP5-85 which may increase sporadic flooding events. Climate change is expected to contribute to the deterioration of water quality shown by 61%, 36%, 79%, 115%, and 70% increased ammonia, chlorophyll-a, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphorus loadings, respectively, from 2022. The increase in temperature results in increases in nutrient loading and a decrease in dissolved oxygen. Overall, this research demonstrated the vulnerability of the catchment to climate change. The findings of this research can offer vital knowledge to policymakers on possible strategies for the sustainable management of water.

Water quality assessment of Elgo river in Ethiopia using CCME, WQI and IWQI for domestic and agricultural usage

The increasing demand for water due to the escalation in population and aggressive agricultural activities for drinking and irrigation purposes in the rural areas of Ethiopia has put tremendous stress on water requirements. The Elgo River in southern Ethiopia is deteriorating due to sedimentation, soil erosion, stormwater runoff, and anthropogenic activities. Elgo village faces water shortages and a lack of safe drinking water. The purpose of this research was to identify the extent of pollution in Elgo River water using the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME), Water Quality Index (WQI), and Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI). A total of 12 water samples were collected from 3 river sampling sites for the dry and wet seasons to test the physicochemical and biological parameters. Results obtained were: turbidity (46.5-156) NTU, colour (103.65-606.5) TCU, EC (182-268) μS/cm, TDS (192.5-275.5) mg/l, TSS (680-2774) mg/l, Ca2+ (22-45) mg/l, Mg2+ (19.5-23.5) mg/l, Cl- (10.5-16.65) mg/l, and SO42- (17.18-47) mg/l for both the dry and wet seasons, respectively. The CCME WQI revealed that the overall results were 38.38 for the dry season and 36.6 for the wet season for drinking water parameters. The CCME WQI categorization indicates that the Elgo River water is classified as poor, with results ranging from 0 to 44. For irrigation purposes 10, parameters such as SAR, PS, PI, MAR, KI, RSC, EC, SSP, TH, and %Na were examined to compute indices using the IWQI model. The overall result of water quality indicated that IWQIs of 81.4 and 62.14 are good for the dry season and poor for the wet season, respectively. This research provides a thorough analysis through modelling to determine the suitability of water for different purposes for the tribal and backward communities of the area.

Characteristic of water quality indicators and its response to climate conditions in the middle and lower reaches of Lijiang River, China

With global climate change and increasingly extreme weather conditions, the water quality of the Lijiang River Basin (LRB) is facing huge threats. At present, there is still a lack of systematic research on water quality indicators and the influence of indirect factors such as meteorological factors on it in the LRB. Therefore, this study is based on the meteorological, hydrological, and water quality data of the LRB from 2012 to 2018, using the Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet method, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, sensitivity, and contribution rate to quantitative analysis of the relationship between climate conditions and water quality indicators. The results show that the change trends of these hydrological and climatic conditions have almost no significant sudden change; precipitation and streamflow are decreasing each year; the streamflow trend exhibits time hysteresis; precipitation has a stronger influence downstream than on the local area; water quality indicators of both stations exhibited a change period of around 18 to 20 months, with the exception of pH. Water quality indicators are insensitive to precipitation and streamflow, and sensitive to humidity and wind speed; DO was negatively correlated with climate indicators apart from wind speed; almost all water quality indicators in Yangshuo are highly sensitive to air temperature, and the contribution rate of air temperature to ORP and TP reached 4.81% and 3.56%, respectively; sunshine duration has a positive impact on reducing NH₄-N and TP. The difference between Yangshuo and Guilin is mostly due to the input of external sources on both sides of the Lijiang River, which results in variations in climate conditions sensitivities.

What will the water quality of the Yangtze River be in the future?

The long-term prediction of water quality is important for water pollution control planning and water resource management, but it has received little attention. In this study, the water quality trend in the Yangtze River is found to stabilize at most monitoring stations under environmental protection activities. Based on the physical mechanism and stochastic theory, a novel river water quality prediction model combining pollution source decomposition (including local point, local nonpoint and upstream sources) and time series decomposition (including trend, seasonal and residential components) is developed. The observed water quality data from 76 monitoring stations in the Yangtze River, including permanganate index (COD_Mn) and total phosphorus (TP), are used to drive this model to make long-term water quality predictions. The results show that this model has an acceptable accuracy. In the future, the concentration of COD_Mn will meet the water quality targets at most stations in the Yangtze River, but the concentration of TP will not be able to meet the water quality target at 28.5 % of the stations. Furthermore, the prediction value of COD_Mn is 62.2 % lower than the target on average. However, the prediction value of TP is only 24.4 % lower than the target on average, and it will exceed the water target by >50 % at some stations. This model has the potential to be widely used for long-term water quality prediction in the future.

Modelling climate change impacts at a drinking water reservoir in Turkey and implications for reservoir management in semi-arid regions

Climate change can have severe impacts on the water availability in semi-arid regions. In this study, we assessed the impact of climatic changes on water availability in the Altınapa Reservoir Watershed, located in the Konya province, south-central Turkey. Altınapa Reservoir supplies drinking water to Konya, a city of about 2 million population. We investigated possible changes in streamflow and reservoir storage over 2021-2098 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) developed based on GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models. We used a physically based model (SWAT-Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for understanding the hydrologic response of the basin to climatic changes. Results show that upward trends in air temperatures in the range of 0.01-0.04 °C/year and 0.005-0.06 °C/year are expected from 2021 to 2098 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. According to the HadGEM2-ES model, precipitation and streamflow would show a downward trend at a rate of 0.96 mm/year and 0.007 m³/s/year under the RCP4.5 scenario and at a rate of 1.62 mm/year and 0.01 m³/s/year under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models project upward trends in precipitation and streamflow under the RCP4.5 scenario (in the range of 0.64-1.28 mm/year and 0.0003-0.006 m³/s/year, respectively), and downward trends under the RCP8.5 scenario (in the range of 0.47-0.76 mm/year and 0.0015-0.003 m³/s/year, respectively). Reservoir storage is projected to increase slightly according to GFDL-ESM2M model and decrease according to the HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR models under both scenarios. Precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir storage predictions of GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models are considerably lower than those observed in the basin in recent decades, showing that water resources will decrease in the future. The changes in water withdrawal patterns could cause further reductions in water availability. Good resilience to climate change can be achieved by a flexible water management system and by reducing water consumption and water losses in the watershed and from the reservoirs.

Estimation of the Dependence of Ice Phenomena Trends on Air and Water Temperature in River

The identification of changes in the ice phenomena (IP) in rivers is a significant element of analyses of hydrological regime features, of the risk of occurrence of ice jam floods, and of the ecological effects of river icing (RI). The research here conducted aimed to estimate the temporal and spatial changes in the IP in a lowland river in the temperate climate (the Noteć River, Poland, Central Europe), depending on air temperature (TA) and water temperature (TW) during the multi-annual period of 1987–2013. Analyses were performed of IP change trends in three RI phases: freezing, when there appears stranded ice (SI), frazil ice (FI), or stranded ice with frazil ice (SI–FI); the phase of stable ice cover (IC) and floating ice (FoI); and the phase of stranded ice with floating ice (SI–FoI), frazil ice with floating ice (FI–FoI), and ice jams (IJs). Estimation of changes in IP in connection with TA and TW made use of the regression model for count data with a negative binomial distribution and of the zero-inflated negative binomial model. The analysis of the multi-annual change tendency of TA and TW utilized a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test for detecting monotonic trends with Yue–Pilon correction (MK–YP). Between two and seven types of IP were registered at individual water gauges, while differences were simultaneously demonstrated in their change trends over the researched period. The use of the Vuong test confirmed the greater effectiveness of estimates for the zero-inflated model than for the temporal trend model, thanks to which an increase in the probability of occurrence of the SI phenomenon in the immediate future was determined; this, together with FI, was found to be the most frequently occurring IP in rivers in the temperate climate. The models confirmed that TA is the best estimator for the evaluation of trends of the occurrence of IC. It was shown that the predictive strength of models increases when thermal conditions are taken into consideration, but it is not always statistically significant. In all probability, this points to the impact of local factors (changes in bed and valley morphology and anthropogenic pressure) that are active regardless of thermal conditions and modify the features of the thermal-ice regime of rivers at specific spatial locations. The results of research confirm the effectiveness of compilating a few models for the estimation of the dependence of IP trends on air and water temperature in a river.

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach

Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 °C), Tmin (>0.2 °C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March-May and June-September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January-February and October-November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required.

Detecting Patterns of Changes in River Water Temperature in Poland

The study determined water temperature trends of rivers in Poland in the period 1971–2015, and also their spatial and temporal patterns. The analysis covered daily water temperature of 53 rivers recorded at 94 water gauge stations and air temperature at 43 meteorological stations. Average monthly, annual, seasonal and maximum annual tendencies of temperature change were calculated using the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. Regional patterns of water temperature change were determined on the basis of Ward’s hierarchical grouping for 16 correlation coefficients of average annual water temperature in successive 30-year sub-periods of the multi-annual period of 1971–2015. Moreover, regularities in monthly temperature trends in the annual cycle were identified using 12 monthly values obtained from the M–K Z test. The majority of average annual air and water temperature series demonstrate statistically significant positive trends. In three seasons: spring, summer and autumn, upward tendencies of temperature were detected at 70%–90% of the investigated water gauges. In 82% of the analysed rivers, similarity to the tendencies of change of monthly air temperature was concluded, with the climatic factor being recognised as of decisive importance for the changes in water thermal characteristics of the majority of rivers in Poland. In the winter months, positive trends of temperature were considerably weaker and in general statistically insignificant. On a regional scale, rivers with a quasi-natural thermal regime experienced temperature increases from April to November. In the other cases, different directions of change in river water temperature (RWT) were attributed to various forms of human impact. It was also found that for the majority of rivers the average annual water temperature in the analysed 30-year sub-periods displayed upward trends, statistically significant or close to the significance threshold. Stronger trends were observed in the periods after 1980, while a different nature of water temperature change was detected only in a couple of mountainous rivers or rivers transformed by human impact. In the beginning of the analysed period (1971–2015), the average annual water temperature of these rivers displayed positive and statistically significant trends, while after 1980 the trends were negative. The detected regularities and spatial patterns of water temperature change in rivers with a quasi-natural regime revealed a strong influence of climate on the modification of their thermal regime features. Rivers characterised by a clearly different nature of temperature change, both in terms of the direction of the tendencies observed and their statistical significance, were distinguished by alterations of water thermal characteristics caused by human activity. The results obtained may be useful in optimising the management of aquatic ecosystems, for which water temperature is a significant indicator of the ongoing environmental changes.

A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018

Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.

Methods for integrating high-resolution land, climate, and infrastructure scenarios in a hydrologic simulation model

Global alterations of the hydrologic cycle by humans have led to alarming rates of water shortages and irreversible ecosystem change. Our ability to manage water resources lies in accurately modeling water availability at scales meaningful to management. Although hydrologic models have been used to understand the implications of future climate and land cover change on regional water availability, many modeling approaches fail to integrate human infrastructures (HI) with bio-geophysical drivers to facilitate sustainable regional water resource management. This paper presents an integrated framework, inclusive of modeling and data needs, to quantify the effects of both bio-geophysical and HI influence on regional surface water hydrology. The framework enables the integration of high spatial and temporal anthropogenic alterations of water availability for identifying hot-spots and hot-moments of hydrological stresses within individual river-segments using a hydrologic simulation model, Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT). •A high-resolution river network for the study region with a greater spatial granularity compared to contemporary SWAT applications attempted to account for HI.•The anthropogenic influence on water balance for each river segment was estimated using data on human infrastructures, such as water intakes, power production facilities, discharges, dams, and land transformation.

Evaluation of the predictive reliability of a new watershed health assessment method using the SWAT model

The purpose of watershed assessments is to give information about conditions of water quality, stream morphology, and biological integrity to identify the sources of stressors and their impacts. In recent decades, different watershed assessment methods have been developed to evaluate the cumulative impacts of human activities on watershed health and the condition of aquatic systems. In the current research, we propose a new approach for assessing watershed vulnerability to contamination based on spatial analysis by using geographic information systems (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique. This new procedure, designed to identify vulnerable zones, depends on six basic factors that represent watershed characteristics: land use/land cover, soil type, average annual precipitation, slope, depth to groundwater, and bedrock type. The general assumptions for assessing watershed vulnerability are based on the response of watersheds to different contamination impacts and how the six selected factors interact to affect watershed health. The new watershed vulnerability assessment technique was used to create maps showing the relative vulnerabilities of specific sub-watersheds in the Eagle Creek Watershed in central Indiana. The results showed a remarkable difference in watershed susceptibility between the sub-watersheds in their vulnerability to pollution. To test the reliability of the proposed vulnerability assessment technique, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was applied to predict the water quality in each sub-watershed. Using the SWAT model, some parameters (e.g., total suspended solids [TSS] and nitrate) were tested based on the availability of the data needed for comparison. Both the SWAT and the newly proposed method produced good results in predicting water quality loads, which validated the proposed method. Hence, the results of the evaluation of the predictive reliability of the watershed vulnerability assessment method revealed that the proposed approach is suitable as a decision-making tool to predict watershed health.

Evaluation of Water Quality in Ialomita River Basin in Relationship with Land Cover Patterns

The paper reviews the state of water quality in Ialomita River Basin (IRB), Romania, between 2007 and 2018 using the land use/land cover and basin-specific conditions effects on sediments and nutrients load. On-site monitoring was performed in two control sections of the Ialomita River, one in the upper part of the basin (near Targoviste city) and the second near the discharge into the Danube (downstream of Tandarei town). The statistical averages of water parameters for 10 years’ monitoring in the control section that is close to the Ialomita River discharge in Danube were pH = 7.60 (range: 6.41–8.40), NH4-N = 1.20 mg/L (0.02–14.87), alkalinity = 4.12 mmol/L (1.34–6.27), NO3-N = 2.60 mg/L (0.08–17.30), PO4-P = 0.09 mg/L (0–0,31), dissolved oxygen (DO) = 8.87 mg/L (2.72–15.96), BOD5 = 5.50 mg/L (0.01–74.71), suspended solids (TSS) = 508.32 mg/L (15.2–4457), total dissolved salts (TDS) = 733.69 mg/L (455.2–1053), and river discharge = 38.60 m3/s (8.22–165). Expected mean concentration and soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) modeling have been employed in the GIS environment to extend the approach to large spatial patterns within the basin. The estimated average specific emission on the total area for nitrogen was 3.2 kg N/ha, and 0.3 kg P/ha for phosphorus highly influenced by the agricultural activities. The results are useful to raise awareness regarding water-quality degradation and the need to stop and even reverse such trends for local and national sustainable development.

Differences in the responses of flow and nutrient load to isolated and coupled future climate and land use changes

Understanding the differences in the responses of river hydrology and water quality to climate and land use changes is particularly crucial for the development and management of water resources in the future. This study was carried out to assess the isolated and coupled effects of future climate change and land use change on the flow and nutrient load of the Xitiaoxi watershed in southeast China by applying the calibrated Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model. Four representative concentration pathways released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and two projected land use change scenarios were used to simulate future conditions. The results indicate that climate change would result in flow increased with an average variation of 25.2% in the future, and the increased flow would be mainly concentrated on the high flow part of the total flow duration curve. Climate change would also induce seasonal shifts to nutrient load. The effects of land use change showed that nutrient load was more sensitive than flow, made Orthophosphate load increase by 2.8%-154.7%, and flow increase by 7.2%-15.1%. The results for coupled climate and land use changes indicate that flow and nutrient load would be more affected by climate change than by land use change. Climate and land use changes may amplify or weaken each other's effects on flow and nutrient load, which suggests that both should be incorporated into hydrologic models when studying the future conditions. The results of this study can help decision-makers guide management practices that aim to minimize flow and nutrient load.

Contribution of changing precipitation and climatic oscillations in explaining variability of water extents of large reservoirs in Pakistan

Major threat that Pakistan faces today is water scarcity and any significant change in water availability from storage reservoirs coupled with below normal precipitation threatens food security of more than 207 million people. Two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Mangla on Indus and Jhelum rivers are studied. Landsat satellite’s data are used to estimate the water extents of these reservoirs during 1981–2017. A long-term significant decrease of 15–25% decade⁻¹ in water extent is found for Tarbela as compared to 37–70% decade⁻¹ for Mangla, mainly during March to June. Significant water extents reductions are observed in the range of −23.9 to −53.4 km² (1991–2017) and −63.1 to −52.3 km² (2001–2010 and 2011–2017) for Tarbela and Mangla, respectively. The precipitation amount and areas receiving this precipitation show a significant decreasing trend of −4.68 to −8.40 mm year⁻¹ and −358.1 to −309.9 km² year⁻¹ for basins of Mangla and Tarbela, respectively. The precipitation and climatic oscillations are playing roles in variability of water extents. The ensuing multiple linear regression models predict water extents with an average error of 13% and 16% for Tarbela and Mangla, respectively.

Evaluation of the raw water quality: physicochemical and toxicological approaches

Environmental degradation has increased, mainly as a result of anthropogenic effects arising from population, industrial and agricultural growth. Water pollution is a problem that affects health, safety and welfare of the whole biota which shares the same environment. In Goiânia and metropolitan region, the main water body is the Meia Ponte River that is used for the abstraction of water, disposal of treated wastewater and effluents. In addition, this river receives wastewater from urban and rural areas. The aim in this present study was to evaluate the quality of raw water by some physical, chemical and toxicological tests. The physicochemical results found high levels of turbidity, conductivity, aluminum, phosphorus and metal iron, manganese, copper and lithium when compared to the standards of the Brazilian legislation. The values found of toxicity demonstrated a high degree of cytotoxicity and genotoxicity. Therefore, it was concluded that the Meia Ponte River has been undergoing constant environmental degradation, causing the poor quality of its waters. Thus, measures for the prevention and recovery should be adopted for the maintenance of the Meia Ponte River.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 1: FLOW, WATER TEMPERATURE, SALTWATER INTRUSION

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on U.S. water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al. (2019), we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

Making global river ecosystem health assessments objective, quantitative and comparable

Assessing and comparing global river ecosystem health in an objective and quantitative way remains a major challenge. In this study the widely-used semi-quantitative methods Rapid Biological assessment Protocols (RBPs) was used to determine the health of rivers. The findings were then compared to the results derived from our new UAV (Unmanned aerial vehicles) orthophotographic imagery method. This method quantitatively and objectively assesses river ecosystem health. As a comparison, our method was used to quantitatively measure distance and areas of a range of hydrological and biological attributes thus improving the accuracy of distance- and area-related indices, consequently avoiding subjective errors in these estimations that is fraught in methods like the RBPs. To strengthen the objectivity of the assessment the weights of these indices were objectively determined using the entropy weighting method. This new method was then tested using 9551 UAV orthophotographs taken over six field campaigns. It performed satisfactorily, showing that in our study area the health status of mountain rivers was the best with the highest score of 0.94 out of 1.0. Temporally, the health of the river was better in summer (0.65) compared with that in autumn (0.40). Changes in river ecosystem health were driven by variations in biology and water quality. In contrast the outputs of RBPs, especially in relation to distance and area indices, had ~ 20% uncertainty due to visual errors and subjectivity in estimations by observers. The UAV orthophotographic imaging method proposed in this study can improve the ability to compare the health of rivers across different periods and regions throughout the globe.

Climate Change Impacts on Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation and Water Quality in the Hetao Area, China

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) is an extreme hydrological phenomenon caused by meteorological anomalies. To combat the climate change, the watershed integrated management model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT)—was used to simulate DFAA, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from 1961 to 2050, based on measured precipitation data in the Hetao area and the downscaled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios. In the future, the increase in temperature and the increase in extreme precipitation will aggravate the pollution of water bodies. Results indicate that the risk of water quality exceeding the standard will increase when DFAA happens, and the risk of water quality exceeding the standard was the greatest in the case of drought-to-flood events. Results also indicate that, against the backdrop of increasing temperature and increasing precipitation in the future, the frequency of long-cycle and short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI, SDFAI) in the Hetao area will continue to decrease, and the number of DFAA situations will decrease. However, the zone of high-frequency DFAA situations will move westward from the eastern Ulansuhai Nur Lake, continuing to pose a risk of water quality deterioration in that region. These results could provide a basis for flood control, drought resistance and pollution control in the Hetao and other areas.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.

Impacts of climate change on TN load and its control in a River Basin with complex pollution sources

It is increasingly recognized that climate change could affect the quality of water through complex natural and anthropogenic mechanisms. Previous studies on climate change and water quality have mostly focused on assessing its impact on pollutant loads from agricultural runoff. A sub-daily SWAT model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from all known anthropogenic sources including industries, municipal sewage treatment plants, concentrated and scattered feedlot operations, rural households, and crop production in the Upper Huai River Basin. This is a highly polluted basin with total nitrogen (TN) concentrations frequently exceeding Class V of the Chinese Surface Water Quality Standard (GB3838-2002). Climate change projections produced by 16 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in the mid (2040-2060) and late (2070-2090) century were used to drive the SWAT model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both the TN loads and the effectiveness of three water pollution control measures (reducing fertilizer use, constructing vegetative filter strips, and improving septic tank performance) in the basin. SWAT simulation results have indicated that climate change is likely to cause an increase in both monthly average and extreme TN loads in February, May, and November. The projected impact of climate change on TN loads in August is more varied between GCMs. In addition, climate change is projected to have a negative impact on the effectiveness of septic tanks in reducing TN loads, while its impacts on the other two measures are more uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, reducing fertilizer use remains the most effective measure for reducing TN loads under different climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, improving septic tank performance is relatively more effective in reducing annual TN loads, while constructing vegetative filter strips is more effective in reducing annual maximum monthly TN loads.

Simulating Climate Change Induced Thermal Stress in Coldwater Fish Habitat Using SWAT Model

Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflows will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate historical streamflow and stream temperatures within three forested, baseflow-driven watersheds in Rhode Island, USA followed by simulations of future climate scenarios for comparison. Low greenhouse gas emission scenarios are based on the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario and the high emissions are based on the SRES A1fi scenario. The output data are analyzed to identify daily occurrences where brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are exposed to stressful events, defined herein as any day where Q25 or Q75 flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C. Results indicate that under both high- and low-emission greenhouse gas scenarios, coldwater fish species such as brook trout will be increasingly exposed to stressful events. The percent chance of stressful event occurrence increased by an average of 6.5% under low-emission scenarios and by 14.2% under high-emission scenarios relative to the historical simulations.

Impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality of a small Mediterranean catchment with intensive viticulture

Studies that address the potential effects of climate and land use changes on surface water quality are scarce in the Mediterranean region. In the present work, the impacts of climate and land use changes on nutrient and copper exports from a humid Mediterranean catchment (São Lourenço) were evaluated using the SWAT model. SWAT reproduced reasonably well total nitrogen (TN), phosphorus (TP) and copper (Cu) exports in São Lourenço, providing an adequate baseline scenario as well as a suitable model parameterization for assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). Land use changes scenarios were generated along the same storylines as climate change scenarios to assess the combined effects of the two stressors. Climate changes itself led to a decline in annual TN and TP exports under both emission scenarios mostly due to a decrease in runoff and erosion induced by a reduction in rainfall, but it hardly affected Cu exports largely due to its strong immobilization in soils. Land use changes per se resulted in an increase in streamflow, but the changes in water quality varied markedly according to the scenarios. A substantial decrease in TN, TP and Cu exports was observed under scenario A1B, due to a reduction in vineyard areas. Under scenario B1, however, TP exports decreased much less while TN exports hardly changed, reflecting differences in the preferential transport pathways of these compounds. Cu exports also remained the same, as no changes occurred in the vineyard areas. The combination of climate and land use change scenarios revealed additive impacts on the exports of all three contaminants, emphasizing the importance of integrated approaches to define adaptive land management practices that can ensure the future sustainability of Mediterranean water resources.

An integrated model for simulating and diagnosing the water quality based on the system dynamics and Bayesian network

An integrated model for simulating and diagnosing water quality based on the system dynamics and Bayesian network (BN) is presented in the paper. The research aims to connect water monitoring downstream with outlet management upstream in order to present an efficiency outlet management strategy. The integrated model was built from two components: the system dynamics were used to simulate the water quality and the BN was applied to diagnose the reason for water quality deterioration according to the water quality simulation. The integrated model was applied in a case study of the Songhua River from the Baiqi section to the Songlin section to prove its reasonability and accuracy. The results showed that the simulation fit to the variation trend of monitoring data, and the average relative error was less than 10%. The water quality deterioration in the Songlin section was mainly found to be caused by the water quality in the upper reach and Hadashan Reservoir drain by using the diagnosis function of the integrated model based on BN. The relevant result revealed that the integrated model could provide reasonable and quantitative support for the basin manager to make a reasonable outlet control strategy to avoid more serious water quality deterioration.

SWAT-CS(enm): Enhancing SWAT nitrate module for a Canadian Shield catchment

Nonpoint source modeling using hydrological models has been extensively studied at agriculture and urban watersheds; however, this has not been well addressed in forested ones where agricultural sources are comparatively minimal and nitrogen deposition exerts remarkable impacts on the nutrient cycles of a catchment. Thus it is critically important for hydrological models to incorporate the dynamics of nitrogen deposition and its transport processes, for reasonable nitrogen modeling. This is especially so for the Canadian Shield, which is characterized by a cold climate and special physiographic features. A revision of Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Canadian Shield (SWAT-CS) was proposed by Fu et al. (2014) to better characterize the hydrological features. In this study, more revisions were added to better simulate processes of nitrate by: 1) incorporating the dynamics of nitrogen deposition; and 2) allowing the deposition to distribute along with rapid-moving macropore flows. The newly revised model, SWAT-CS(enm) (SWAT-CS with an Enhanced Nitrate Module), and SWAT-CS were calibrated and tested with data of a subbasin of Harp Lake in south-central Ontario for 1990 to 2007. Modeling performance of nitrate flux rate in the stream for SWAT-CS(enm) was nearly acceptable with maximum daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (ENSs) for calibration and validation periods of 0.66 and 0.43, respectively; whereas the result of SWAT-CS was generally unsatisfied with maximum daily ENSs of 0.16 and 0.07, respectively. An uncertainty analysis using GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) showed a modest performance as about 50% of observations can be incorporated by the 95% prediction range deriving from the behavioral solutions (ENS≥0.5) for both daily and monthly simulations. It is concluded that the enhanced nitrate module improved the model performance of SWAT-CS on nitrate modeling, since the previous SWAT-CS failed to consider the effect of dynamics of nitrogen deposition and its sequential processes at the investigated site.

Shifts in the suitable habitat available for brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) under short-term climate change scenarios

The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). The future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at a daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE of 0.78 and 0.97 respectively) for two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under the representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). An ensemble of five strongly regularized machine learning techniques (generalized additive models, multilayer perceptron ensembles, random forests, support vector machines and fuzzy rule base systems) was used to model the microhabitat suitability (depth, velocity and substrate) during summertime and to evaluate several flows simulated with River2D©. The simulated flow rate and water temperature were combined with the microhabitat assessment to infer bivariate habitat duration curves (BHDCs) under historical conditions and climate change scenarios using either the weighted usable area (WUA) or the Boolean-based suitable area (SA). The forecasts for both scenarios jointly predicted a significant reduction in the flow rate and an increase in water temperature (mean rate of change of ca. -25% and +4% respectively). The five techniques converged on the modelled suitability and habitat preferences; large brown trout selected relatively high flow velocity, large depth and coarse substrate. However, the model developed with support vector machines presented a significantly trimmed output range (max.: 0.38), and thus its predictions were banned from the WUA-based analyses. The BHDCs based on the WUA and the SA broadly matched, indicating an increase in the number of days with less suitable habitat available (WUA and SA) and/or with higher water temperature (trout will endure impoverished environmental conditions ca. 82% of the days). Finally, our results suggested the potential extirpation of the species from the study site during short time spans.

Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections

Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality.

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems.

Impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological and erosion processes of two contrasting Mediterranean catchments

The impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow and sediment export were evaluated for a humid (São Lourenço) and a dry (Guadalupe) Mediterranean catchment, using the SWAT model. SWAT was able to produce viable streamflow and sediment export simulations for both catchments, which provided a baseline for investigating climate and land use changes under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2071-2100. Compared to the baseline scenario (1971-2000), climate change scenarios showed a decrease in annual rainfall for both catchments (humid: -12%; dry: -8%), together with strong increases in rainfall during winter. Land use changes were derived from a socio-economic storyline in which traditional agriculture is replaced by more profitable land uses (i.e. corn and commercial forestry at the humid site; sunflower at the dry site). Climate change projections showed a decrease in streamflow for both catchments, whereas sediment export decreased only for the São Lourenço catchment. Land use changes resulted in an increase in streamflow, but the erosive response differed between catchments. The combination of climate and land use change scenarios led to a reduction in streamflow for both catchments, suggesting a domain of the climatic response. As for sediments, contrasting results were observed for the humid (A1B: -29%; B1: -22%) and dry catchment (A1B: +222%; B1: +5%), which is mainly due to differences in the present-day and forecasted vegetation types. The results highlight the importance of climate-induced land-use change impacts, which could be similar to or more severe than the direct impacts of climate change alone.

Impact of short-term climate variation and hydrology change on thermal structure and water quality of a canyon-shaped, stratified reservoir

Climate variation can have obvious effects on hydrologic conditions, which in turn can have direct consequences for the thermal regime and quality of water for human use. In this research, weekly surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2013 to investigate how changes of climate and hydrology affect the thermal regime and water quality at the Heihe Reservoir. Our results show that the hydrology change during the flooding season can both increase the oxygen concentration and accelerate the consumption of dissolved oxygen. Continuous heavy rainfall events occurred in September 2011 caused the mixing of the entire reservoir, which led to an increase in dissolved oxygen at the bottom until the next year. Significant turbid density flow was observed following the extreme rainfall events in 2012 which leading to a rapid increase in turbidity at the bottom (up to 3000 NTU). Though the dissolved oxygen at the bottom increased from 0 to 9.02 mg/L after the rainfall event, it became anoxic within 20 days due to the increase of water oxygen demand caused by the suspended matter brought by the storm runoff. The release of compounds from the sediments was more serious during the anaerobic period after the rainfall events and the concentration of total iron, total phosphorus, and total manganese at the bottom reached 1.778, 0.102, and 0.125 mg/L. The improved water-lifting aerators kept on running after the storm runoff occurred in 2013 to avoid the deterioration of water quality during anaerobic conditions and ensured the good water quality during the mixing period. Our results suggest preventive and remediation actions that are necessary to improve water quality and status.

Variation analysis of streamflow and ecological flow for the twin rivers of the Miyun Reservoir Basin in northern China from 1963 to 2011

In this paper, the Mann-Kendall test and F-test were combined to analyze the annual and seasonal streamflow variations and aberrance points for the twin rivers from 1963 to 2011. The Tennant method was subsequently used to evaluate the ecological flow assurance and deficit. Finally, the Double Mass Curve method was applied to identifying the human activities affecting the streamflow variations. The results were as follows: (1) Three similar stages of the streamflow variations were found for the twin rivers: fluctuations before 1980, the tiny downward trends from the 1980s to the 1990s, and the notably downward trends in the 2000s. (2) The seasonal streamflow also decreased continuously and dramatically, especially in summer, by 80.9% for the Chaohe River and 86.0% for the Baihe River. (3) During the spawning season, 83.3% and 73.1% of streamflow was not at the appropriate level for the Chaohe and Baihe Rivers, respectively, which indicated that the ecological environment was not optimal for the reproduction and breeding of aquatic organisms. While in other periods, the ecological flow assurance was better than that in spawning seasons for the Chaohe and Baihe Rivers, respectively. This indicated that the streamflow regimes of the twin rivers were not always optimal and conducive to the development of the aquatic ecosystem. (4) The streamflow variations of the twin rivers were influenced by increasingly intensive human activities such as changes of land use and land cover, and excessive exploitation and utilization of water resources. These influences were cumulative and showed a gradually increasing tendency. This research is helpful for understanding the streamflow regime and for forecasting of the regional extreme climate, such as drought and floods, and can provide a basis for decision making and formulating adaptive ecological security countermeasures in response to climate changes and human activities.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China

To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.

MODELING STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN 20 U.S. WATERSHEDS

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.

Impacts of global change on the concentrations and dilution of combined sewer overflows in a drinking water source

This study presents an analysis of climate change impacts on a large river located in Québec (Canada) used as a drinking water source. Combined sewer overflow (CSO) effluents are the primary source of fecal contamination of the river. An analysis of river flowrates was conducted using historical data and predicted flows from a future climate scenario. A spatio-temporal analysis of water quality trends with regard to fecal contamination was performed and the effects of changing flowrates on the dilution of fecal contaminants were analyzed. Along the river, there was a significant spatial trend for increasing fecal pollution downstream of CSO outfalls. Escherichia coli concentrations (upper 95th percentile) increased linearly from 2002 to 2012 at one drinking water treatment plant intake. Two critical periods in the current climate were identified for the drinking water intakes considering both potential contaminant loads and flowrates: local spring snowmelt that precedes river peak flow and extra-tropical storm events that occur during low flows. Regionally, climate change is expected to increase the intensity of the impacts of hydrological conditions on water quality in the studied basin. Based on climate projections, it is expected that spring snowmelt will occur earlier and extreme spring flowrates will increase and low flows will generally decrease. High and low flows are major factors related to the potential degradation of water quality of the river. However, the observed degradation of water quality over the past 10 years suggests that urban development and population growth may have played a greater role than climate. However, climate change impacts will likely be observed over a longer period. Source water protection plans should consider climate change impacts on the dilution of contaminants in addition to local land uses changes in order to maintain or improve water quality.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed

Western Mediterranean Region of Turkey is subject to considerable impacts of climate change that may adversely affect the water resources. Decrease in annual precipitation and winter precipitation as well as increase in temperatures are observed since 1960s. In this study, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in part of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Watershed was evaluated. Evaluation was done by quantifying the impacts of climate change on the water budget components. Hydrological modeling was conducted with SWAT model which was calibrated and validated successfully. Climate change and land use scenarios were used to calculate the present and future climate change impacts on water budgets. According to the simulation results, almost all water budget components have decreased. SWAT was able to allocate less irrigation water because of the decrease of overall water due to the climate change. This resulted in an increase of water stressed days and temperature stressed days whereas crop yields have decreased according to the simulation results. The results indicated that lack of water is expected to be a problem in the future. In this manner, investigations on switching to more efficient irrigation methods and to crops with less water consumption are recommended as adaptation measures to climate change impacts.

Conceptualizing and assessing the effects of installation and operation of photovoltaic power plants on major hydrologic budget constituents

This study addresses the effects of land use change from agricultural to photovoltaic parks (PVPs) on the hydrology of an area. Although many environmental effects have been identified and analyzed, only minor attention has been given to the hydrologic effects of the installation and operation of PVPs. The effects of current PVP installation and operation practices on major hydrologic budget constituents (surface runoff, evapotranspiration and percolation) were identified, conceptualized, quantified and simulated using SWAT model. Vosvozis river basin located in north Greece was selected as a test site. Additionally, long-term effects were simulated using dynamically downscaled climate projections by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by 5 different General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2011-2100. Results indicate that surface runoff and percolation potential are significantly increased at the local scale and have to be considered during PVP siting, especially when sensitive and protected ecosystems are involved.

Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21^st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21^st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could significantly decline with adverse consequences for water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystem health.