Modelling of marine radionuclide dispersion in IAEA MODARIA program: Lessons learnt from the Baltic Sea and Fukushima scenarios

Study on the Dispersion of Radionuclides under Different Hydrological Conditions of Spent Fuel Shipping in Daya Bay

The radionuclide dispersion in coastal water is mainly controlled by the water flow and tidal effect. Tracing and analysis of radioactive pollutant dispersion in coastal water can predict distribution of radionuclide under marine transportation accident of spent fuel. In this work, factors such as continuous emission, radioactive decay, and water depth are considered, and a hydrodynamic model of radionuclide dispersion based on shallow water equations is established to simulate the dispersion of the radioactive pollutant in coastal waters under different hydrological conditions. As far as the characteristics of the radionuclide dispersion in coastal water are concerned, the simulation of pollutants by the hydrodynamic model is in good agreement with the work of Bailly du Bois et al., which validated the correctness of this model. The model has been applied to simulate the distribution of radionuclides in coastal water following a marine transport accident of spent fuel near Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant in China. The simulation reveals that the distribution features are significantly affected by different hydrological conditions. In addition to limiting the diffusion range, the vortex effect can also cause the accumulation of radionuclides near the vortex, which helps to provide more practical information for nuclear emergency decision makers.

Planned release of contaminated water from the Fukushima storage tanks into the ocean: Simulation scenarios of radiological impact for aquatic biota and human from seafood consumption

The radiological impact for human and aquatic biota as a result of a planned release of contaminated water stored in tanks near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the Pacific Ocean is assessed. The total activity for 10 dominant radionuclides (³H, ¹⁴C, ⁶⁰Co, ⁹⁰Sr, ⁹⁹Tc, ¹⁰⁶Ru, ¹²⁵Sb, ¹²⁹I, ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs) in tanks is estimated. The compartment model POSEIDON-R is applied to compute the concentration of activity for each radionuclide in water, bottom sediments, and biota, and corresponding doses to marine organisms and humans from seafood consumption. Predicted concentrations of activity in marine products in future will not exceed food safety limits in Japan. The computed maximum committed effective dose to humans is less than 1 μSv per year with the highest contribution from ¹²⁹I and ¹⁴C. Maximum absorbed doses to non-human biota are in the order of 0.05 to 20 μGy per year, meaning that no deleterious effects are expected.

The transport, effective half-lives and age distributions of radioactive releases in the northern Indian Ocean

A Lagrangian model which describes radionuclide transport in the northern Indian Ocean is described. Water circulation is obtained from HYCOM ocean model for year 2017. The model includes advection by currents, turbulent mixing and radionuclide interactions between water and sediments, described in a dynamic way using kinetic transfer coefficients. Hypothetical releases from five coastal nuclear power plants operating in the northern Indian Ocean were simulated. Releases were supposed to start both during the winter and summer monsoons, to study reversing circulation effects. Age distributions of releases were calculated, which adds information about circulation and radionuclide pathways. It was found that, for some of the NPPs, radionuclide distributions resulting from releases starting in both seasons were not as different as could be expected from the opposed circulation schemes during each monsoon. Effective ¹³⁷Cs half-lives in the ocean surface were calculated and results were two orders of magnitude below previous estimations.

Development of a dynamic food chain model for assessment of the radiological impact from radioactive releases to the aquatic environment

The software tool POSEIDON-R was developed for modelling the concentration of radionuclides in water and sediments as well as uptake and fate in the aquatic environment and marine organisms. The software has been actively advanced in the aftermath of the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. This includes development of an uptake model for the benthic food chain, a kinetic-allometric compartment model for fish and recent advancements for the application of ³H. This work will focus on the food chain model development and its extension to key artificial radionuclides in radioecology such as ³H. Subsequently, the model will be applied to assess the radiological dose for marine biota from ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs released during and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. The simulation results for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs obtained from the coastal box (4-4 km) located at the discharge area of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, and the surrounding regional box (15-30 km) are compared with measurements. The predictions are by and large consistent with experimental findings, although good validation for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³¹I is challenging due to lack of data. On the basis of the model predictions a dose assessment for pelagic and benthic fish is carried out. Maximum absorbed dose rates in the coastal box and the regional box are respectively 6000 and 50 μGy d^-1 and are found in the pelagic non-piscivorous fish. Dose rates exceeding ICRP's derived consideration levels of 1 mGy d^-1 are only found in the direct vicinity of the release and shortly after the accident. During the post-accidental phase absorbed dose rates consistently fall to levels where no deleterious effects to the marine biota are expected. The results also demonstrate the prolonged dose rate from ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs, particularly for benthic organisms, due to caesium's affinity with sediment, re-entry of caesium from the sediment into the food chain and external exposure from its high energetic gamma emissions. Uptake of non-organic tritium (HTO) and organically bound tritium (OBT) is modelled and shows some accumulation of OBT in the marine organism. However, dose rates from tritium, even during the accident, are low.

Models for predicting the transport of radionuclides in the Red Sea

Two radionuclide transport models for the Red Sea are described: a Lagrangian model to deal with emergency situations and a Eulerian model better suited to longer term simulations, as for instance required in case of chronic radionuclide releases. Baroclinic circulation is obtained for both transport models from HYCOM ocean model. The Lagrangian model also includes tides, which are obtained from a standard tidal model customized to the Red Sea, and currents induced by local winds. Both models describe exchanges of radionuclides between water and sediments. A number of simulations were carried out to illustrate capabilities of the models. Additionally, flushing times over the Red Sea were evaluated with the Eulerian model, as another example of model use.

Evaluation of the environmental sensitivity of Aegean Sea based on radiological box modeling

A radiological box model of the Aegean Sea has been developed simulating the dispersion and fate of radionuclides in the marine environment. The model incorporates all transfer processes within abiotic and biotic compartments in combination with appropriate site-specific information. The model was calibrated using empirical radiological data, with the simulation of ¹³⁷Cs dispersion after the Chernobyl. Environmental sensitivity analysis has been carried out based on Chernobyl ¹³⁷Cs fallout, in terms of doses to representative marine organisms (fish, crustacean and molluscs) and human population. Comparison of the results with doses from natural sources and sensitivity estimations for shallow marine environments has been performed in order to reveal the vulnerability of each sub-region. The main characteristics and parameters controlling the radioecological processes are also discussed.

Laponites® for the Recovery of 133Cs, 59Co, and 88Sr from Aqueous Solutions and Subsequent Storage: Impact of Grafted Silane Loads

In this study, silylated Laponites^® (LAP) were synthetized with various loads of 3-aminopropyltriethoxysilane (APTES) to evaluate their adsorption properties of ¹³³Cs, ⁵⁹Co, and ⁸⁸Sr during single-solute and competitive experiments. The increase in the initial load of APTES increased the adsorbed amount of APTES in the resulted grafted clay. The characterization of LAP-APTES exhibited a covalent binding between APTES and LAP and emphasized the adsorption sites of APTES for each tested load. In comparison with raw LAP, LAP-APTES displayed significantly higher adsorption properties of Co²⁺, Cs⁺, and Sr²⁺. The competitive adsorption of these three contaminants provides a deeper understanding of the affinity between adsorbate and adsorbent. Therefore, Co²⁺ displayed a strong and specific adsorption onto LAP-APTES. Except for Cs⁺, the adsorption capacity was improved with increasing the load of APTES. Finally, the desorption behavior of the three contaminants was tested in saline solutions. Cs⁺ and Sr²⁺ were significantly released especially by inorganic cations displaying the same valence. Conversely, desorption of Co²⁺ was very low whatever the saline solution. LAP-APTES, therefore, presented suitable adsorption properties for the removal of radionuclides especially for Co²⁺, making this material suitable to improve the decontamination of radioactive wastewaters.

Coastal transport of river-discharged radionuclides: Impact of speciation and transformation processes in numerical model simulations

Following a potential nuclear accident, river run-off may potentially become a significant source of radionuclide contamination to the coastal marine environment. In the present work, code for radionuclide speciation and dynamic transfer of radionuclides between the different species was implemented in a Lagrangian marine dispersion model. A case study was performed where the model system utilized ocean circulation fields at relatively high spatial (160 m × 160 m in horizontal direction) and temporal resolution (1 hour), considering a hypothetical accident scenario including river discharges of ¹³⁷Cs to the marine environment. Results from a number of simulations were compared to identify how factors associated with radionuclide speciation and transfer between the model compartments could affect the predicted radiocesium activity concentrations. The results showed that by including dynamic transfer of radionuclides between the model compartments, the total activity concentrations at far-field sites could vary with more than two orders of magnitude, demonstrating that this model configuration enables prediction of potential local hot-spots. However, the total activity concentration near the river outlets was less affected (< factor 10). The radionuclide speciation in the river discharges and the parameterization of ¹³⁷Cs particle affinity greatly affected the specie distribution (> factor 10³ increase in concentration of particle-associated ¹³⁷Cs) as well as the settling of radionuclides towards the seabed (up to factor 10² increase in ¹³⁷Cs sediment concentrations). These factors were therefore identified as important contributors to the overall uncertainty.

Fukushima 137Cs releases dispersion modelling over the Pacific Ocean. Comparisons of models with water, sediment and biota data

A number of marine radionuclide dispersion models (both Eulerian and Lagrangian) were applied to simulate ¹³⁷Cs releases from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 over the Pacific at oceanic scale. Simulations extended over two years and both direct releases into the ocean and deposition of atmospheric releases on the ocean surface were considered. Dispersion models included an embedded biological uptake model (BUM). Three types of BUMs were used: equilibrium, dynamic and allometric. Model results were compared with ¹³⁷Cs measurements in water (surface, intermediate and deep layers), sediment and biota (zooplankton, non-piscivorous and piscivorous fish). A reasonable agreement in model/model and model/data comparisons was obtained.

Delineation of metals and radionuclides bioconcentration in eggs of seabream Sparus aurata and effect of environmental pCO2

Considered as the most vulnerable ontogenic stages to environmental stressors, the early-life stages of fish paid a peculiar attention with respect to their vulnerability to metal and radionuclides contamination. Concomitantly, the increasing anthropogenic CO₂ release in the atmosphere will cause major change of the seawater chemistry that could affect the trace elements and radionuclides bioconcentration efficiencies by marine organisms. The aim of this work was to 1) delineate the uptake behaviours of Ag, Am, Cd, Co and Zn in seabream eggs during 65 h of development and retention by newly hatched and 7 h-old larvae maintained in clean seawater, respectively, and 2) investigate the effects of elevated pCO₂ on the bioconcentration efficiencies of these elements in eggs. Besides differing in terms of maximal concentration factors values, the uptake kinetics showed element-specific patterns with Am being linearly bioconcentrated and Co and Zn showing a saturation state equilibrium. The ^110mAg and ¹⁰⁹Cd uptake kinetics shared a two-phases pattern being best described by a saturation equation during the first 24 h of development, and then an exponential loss of accumulated elements although the radiotracer concentrations in the surrounding water remained constant. At hatching time, the radioactivity of ^110mAg was the highest among radiotracers detected in the larvae. After 7 h in depuration conditions, 60% of this metal was still detected whereas ²⁴¹Am, ⁶⁰Co and ⁶⁵Zn were almost totally lost, suggesting an efficient incorporation of Ag in the embryo during the egg development. Finally, this study brought first qualitative data on the effect of pCO₂/pH on metal bioconcentration in eggs, raising the need to unravel chemical and biological processes to predict a potential shift of the toxicity of environmental contamination of fish early life stages with future ocean change.

Similarities and differences of 137Cs distributions in the marine environments of the Baltic and Black seas and off the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in model assessments

The compartment model POSEIDON-R with an embedded food web model was used to assess ¹³⁷Cs distributions in the Baltic and Black seas and off the Pacific coast of Japan during 1945-2020 due to the weapon testing and accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants. The results of simulations conducted with generic parameters agreed well with measurements of ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the water, bottom sediments, and in fish. In the Black and Baltic seas, salinity variations affected the transfer of ¹³⁷Cs through the food web. The contamination of pelagic fish followed the water contamination with some delay, whereas demersal fish depuration was found to be related to decreasing ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the upper sediment layer. On the Pacific shelf off Japan, intensive currents and eddies caused the simulated depuration rates in fish to be one-two orders of magnitude larger than those in the semi-enclosed Black and Baltic seas.

Marine radioecology after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident: Are we better positioned to understand the impact of radionuclides in marine ecosystems?

This paper focuses on how a community of researchers under the COMET (CO-ordination and iMplementation of a pan European projecT for radioecology) project has improved the capacity of marine radioecology to understand at the process level the behaviour of radionuclides in the marine environment, uptake by organisms and the resulting doses after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident occurred in 2011. We present new radioecological understanding of the processes involved, such as the interaction of waterborne radionuclides with suspended particles and sediments or the biological uptake and turnover of radionuclides, which have been better quantified and mathematically described. We demonstrate that biokinetic models can better represent radionuclide transfer to biota in non-equilibrium situations, bringing more realism to predictions, especially when combining physical, chemical and biological interactions that occur in such an open and dynamic environment as the ocean. As a result, we are readier now than we were before the FDNPP accident in terms of having models that can be applied to dynamic situations. The paper concludes with our vision for marine radioecology as a fundamental research discipline and we present a strategy for our discipline at the European and international levels. The lessons learned are presented along with their possible applicability to assess/reduce the environmental consequences of future accidents to the marine environment and guidance for future research, as well as to assure the sustainability of marine radioecology. This guidance necessarily reflects on why and where further research funding is needed, signalling the way for future investigations.