A critical review and update of modelling of treated water discharging from Fukushima Daiichi NPP

Since the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) in March 2011 seawater is still needed to cool the reactor cores. This water, contaminated with radionuclides, has been collected in tanks and treated on the site of the FDNPP. In 2021, the Japanese government decided to gradually discharge treated water into the ocean, which started on the 24th of August 2023 and will continue for the next 30 years. This paper provides a critical analysis of the models that were used in the different radiological impact studies. Based on the analysis, a hydrodynamic and a compartment models with a harmonized setup were used to estimate the impact of the discharge on humans and biota. Doses obtained with these two models were within one order of magnitude for humans (<0.1 μSv/year) and for biota (<10-6 mGy/d) indicating that harmonization of the model parameters improved the reliability of the simulation results.

Comparison of methods for the radiological impact assessment of aquatic releases to the waters in the low countries

Accurate assessment of the radiological impact of liquid discharges on the marine environment is challenging despite all developments in recent years. The lack of consensus on this type of assessment manifests itself even stronger when transborder issues are expected, such as in the Low Countries. Belgium and the Netherlands operate nuclear power plants with discharges in the shared estuary of the Western Scheldt, therefore if there are safety concerns, information on both sides of the border must be coherent. This work provides a comparison of two computational methods used for assessment of aquatic releases in the Western Scheldt estuary and the adjacent North Sea.The work demonstrates a fair degree of consistency in modelling the uptake and fate of key anthropogenic radionuclides. Nevertheless, there are also considerable differences found in sediment and sea species with concentrations ranging by over two orders of magnitude in some cases. These explainable differences are methodological in nature, occurring in codes that underwent extensive validation during development. Therefore, the outcomes of this work clearly demonstrate the need to produce explicit guidance that is specifically tailored to the (inter)national water system of concern. This should not be limited to releases from nuclear power plants, but also include other nuclear applications. For all these reasons, more intensive collaboration and model harmonisation across borders is essential, signalling the direction for future investigations.

Some considerations on the dependence to numerical schemes of Lagrangian radionuclide transport models for the aquatic environment

Lagrangian models present several advantages over Eulerian models to simulate the transport of radionuclides in the aquatic environment in emergency situations. A radionuclide release is simulated as a number of particles whose trajectories are calculated along time and thus these models do not require a spatial discretization (although it is always required in time). In this paper we investigate the dependence of a Lagrangian model output with the grid spacing which is used to calculate concentrations from the final distribution of particles, with the number of particles in the simulation and with the interpolation schemes which are required because of the discrete nature of the water circulation data used to feed the model. Also, a Lagrangian model may describe the exchanges of radionuclides between phases (liquid and solid), which is done in terms of transition probabilities. The dependence of these probabilities with time step is analyzed as well. It was found that the optimum grid size used to calculate concentrations should be carefully checked, and that temporal interpolation is more significant than spatial interpolation to obtain a more accurate solution. A method to estimate the number of particles required to have a certain accuracy level is proposed. Finally, it was found that for low sediment concentrations and small radionuclide k_d, exact equations for the transition probabilities should be used; and that phase transitions introduce a stability condition as in Eulerian models.

Planned release of contaminated water from the Fukushima storage tanks into the ocean: Simulation scenarios of radiological impact for aquatic biota and human from seafood consumption

The radiological impact for human and aquatic biota as a result of a planned release of contaminated water stored in tanks near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the Pacific Ocean is assessed. The total activity for 10 dominant radionuclides (³H, ¹⁴C, ⁶⁰Co, ⁹⁰Sr, ⁹⁹Tc, ¹⁰⁶Ru, ¹²⁵Sb, ¹²⁹I, ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs) in tanks is estimated. The compartment model POSEIDON-R is applied to compute the concentration of activity for each radionuclide in water, bottom sediments, and biota, and corresponding doses to marine organisms and humans from seafood consumption. Predicted concentrations of activity in marine products in future will not exceed food safety limits in Japan. The computed maximum committed effective dose to humans is less than 1 μSv per year with the highest contribution from ¹²⁹I and ¹⁴C. Maximum absorbed doses to non-human biota are in the order of 0.05 to 20 μGy per year, meaning that no deleterious effects are expected.

Development of a dynamic food chain model for assessment of the radiological impact from radioactive releases to the aquatic environment

The software tool POSEIDON-R was developed for modelling the concentration of radionuclides in water and sediments as well as uptake and fate in the aquatic environment and marine organisms. The software has been actively advanced in the aftermath of the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. This includes development of an uptake model for the benthic food chain, a kinetic-allometric compartment model for fish and recent advancements for the application of ³H. This work will focus on the food chain model development and its extension to key artificial radionuclides in radioecology such as ³H. Subsequently, the model will be applied to assess the radiological dose for marine biota from ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs released during and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. The simulation results for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs obtained from the coastal box (4-4 km) located at the discharge area of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, and the surrounding regional box (15-30 km) are compared with measurements. The predictions are by and large consistent with experimental findings, although good validation for ³H, ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³¹I is challenging due to lack of data. On the basis of the model predictions a dose assessment for pelagic and benthic fish is carried out. Maximum absorbed dose rates in the coastal box and the regional box are respectively 6000 and 50 μGy d^-1 and are found in the pelagic non-piscivorous fish. Dose rates exceeding ICRP's derived consideration levels of 1 mGy d^-1 are only found in the direct vicinity of the release and shortly after the accident. During the post-accidental phase absorbed dose rates consistently fall to levels where no deleterious effects to the marine biota are expected. The results also demonstrate the prolonged dose rate from ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs, particularly for benthic organisms, due to caesium's affinity with sediment, re-entry of caesium from the sediment into the food chain and external exposure from its high energetic gamma emissions. Uptake of non-organic tritium (HTO) and organically bound tritium (OBT) is modelled and shows some accumulation of OBT in the marine organism. However, dose rates from tritium, even during the accident, are low.

Transport and fate of 137Cs in the Mediterranean and Black Seas system during 1945-2020 period: A modelling study

The compartment model POSEIDON-R with an embedded dynamic food web model was used to assess ¹³⁷Cs distributions in the Mediterranean and Black Seas during 1945-2020 due to the weapon testing and accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Three maximums of contamination of surface waters can be identified from 1950 in the Mediterranean Sea system. Two of them (in 1959 and 1963) were caused by atmospheric deposition due to the nuclear weapon testing. Third maximum in 1986 was related with the Chernobyl accident. Maximum of inventory of ¹³⁷Cs in the Mediterranean Sea (11461 TBq) was achieved in 1968, whereas secondary maximum caused by Chernobyl accident in 1986 was almost the same (11460 TBq). The corresponding maximum in the Black Sea (3703 TBq) was reached in 1986. It is approximately two times larger than nuclear weapon tests maximum. The results of simulations conducted with generic parameters agreed well with measurements of ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the water, bottom sediments, and in marine organisms. The inventory in the Mediterranean Sea is most sensitive to the global deposition, whereas water exchange with Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea plays minor role. The cumulative individual dose for the period 1945-2020 from consumption of marine products contaminated by ¹³⁷Cs was in the range 41-130 μSv in the Mediterranean Sea and 213-274 μSv in the Black Sea. The dose increased up to 40% due to Chernobyl accident in the Mediterranean countries and 66-103% in the Black Sea countries comparatively with dose from the global deposition. A useful application of the modelling for monitoring purposes was selection of representative regions in the Mediterranean Sea (5 regions) and in the Black Sea (4 regions) using "etalon" method for classification.

Fukushima 137Cs releases dispersion modelling over the Pacific Ocean. Comparisons of models with water, sediment and biota data

A number of marine radionuclide dispersion models (both Eulerian and Lagrangian) were applied to simulate ¹³⁷Cs releases from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 over the Pacific at oceanic scale. Simulations extended over two years and both direct releases into the ocean and deposition of atmospheric releases on the ocean surface were considered. Dispersion models included an embedded biological uptake model (BUM). Three types of BUMs were used: equilibrium, dynamic and allometric. Model results were compared with ¹³⁷Cs measurements in water (surface, intermediate and deep layers), sediment and biota (zooplankton, non-piscivorous and piscivorous fish). A reasonable agreement in model/model and model/data comparisons was obtained.

Similarities and differences of 137Cs distributions in the marine environments of the Baltic and Black seas and off the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in model assessments

The compartment model POSEIDON-R with an embedded food web model was used to assess ¹³⁷Cs distributions in the Baltic and Black seas and off the Pacific coast of Japan during 1945-2020 due to the weapon testing and accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants. The results of simulations conducted with generic parameters agreed well with measurements of ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the water, bottom sediments, and in fish. In the Black and Baltic seas, salinity variations affected the transfer of ¹³⁷Cs through the food web. The contamination of pelagic fish followed the water contamination with some delay, whereas demersal fish depuration was found to be related to decreasing ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the upper sediment layer. On the Pacific shelf off Japan, intensive currents and eddies caused the simulated depuration rates in fish to be one-two orders of magnitude larger than those in the semi-enclosed Black and Baltic seas.

Modelling of marine radionuclide dispersion in IAEA MODARIA program: Lessons learnt from the Baltic Sea and Fukushima scenarios

State-of-the art dispersion models were applied to simulate (137)Cs dispersion from Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster fallout in the Baltic Sea and from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant releases in the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 tsunami. Models were of different nature, from box to full three-dimensional models, and included water/sediment interactions. Agreement between models was very good in the Baltic. In the case of Fukushima, results from models could be considered to be in acceptable agreement only after a model harmonization process consisting of using exactly the same forcing (water circulation and parameters) in all models. It was found that the dynamics of the considered system (magnitude and variability of currents) was essential in obtaining a good agreement between models. The difficulties in developing operative models for decision-making support in these dynamic environments were highlighted. Three stages which should be considered after an emergency, each of them requiring specific modelling approaches, have been defined. They are the emergency, the post-emergency and the long-term phases.

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

A comparison of marine radionuclide dispersion models for the Baltic Sea in the frame of IAEA MODARIA program

Four radionuclide dispersion models have been applied to simulate the transport and distribution of (137)Cs fallout from Chernobyl accident in the Baltic Sea. Models correspond to two categories: box models and hydrodynamic models which solve water circulation and then an advection/diffusion equation. In all cases, interactions of dissolved radionuclides with suspended matter and bed sediments are included. Model results have been compared with extensive field data obtained from HELCOM database. Inventories in the water column and seabed, as well as (137)Cs concentrations along 5 years in water and sediments of several sub-basins of the Baltic, have been used for model comparisons. Values predicted by the models for the target magnitudes are very similar and close to experimental values. Results suggest that some processes are not very relevant for radionuclide transport within the Baltic Sea, for instance the roles of the ice cover and, surprisingly, water stratification. Also, results confirm previous findings concerning multi-model applications.

Dispersion and fate of ⁹⁰Sr in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: global fallout and the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

The 3D compartment model POSEIDON-R was applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of (90)Sr in the period 1945-2010 and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of (90)Sr due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident for the period 2011-2040. The contamination due to runoff of (90)Sr from terrestrial surfaces was taken into account using a generic predictive model. A dynamical food-chain model describes the transfer of (90)Sr to phytoplankton, zooplankton, molluscs, crustaceans, piscivorous and non-piscivorous fishes. Results of the simulations were compared with observation data on (90)Sr for the period 1955-2010 and the budget of (90)Sr activity was estimated. It was found that in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea the riverine influx was 1.5% of the ocean influx and it was important only locally. Calculated concentrations of (90)Sr in water, bottom sediment and marine organisms before and after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. The concentration of (90)Sr in seawater would return to the background levels within one year after leakages were stopped. The model predicts that the concentration of (90)Sr in fish after the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident shall return to the background concentrations only 2 years later due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web and specific accumulation of (90)Sr. The contribution of (90)Sr to the maximal dose rate due to the FDNPP accident was three orders of magnitude less than that due to (137)Cs, and thus well below the maximum effective dose limits for the public.

Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a factor of 6 in comparison with 2010.

POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.