Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal

Estimation of monthly snowmelt contribution to runoff using gridded meteorological data in SWAT model for Upper Alaknanda River Basin, India

The purpose of hydrologic modeling of a watershed is to gain valuable information about the processes occurring within watershed. With increasing temperature of the earth atmosphere, the snow fed mountainous river basins are going to get impacted severely. Lack of adequate weather station limits the scope of researches in these mountainous basins which are critical source of water resource for the country. However, improvement of satellite-based weather products has been able to nullify this barrier to great extent. In this study, a semi distributed hydrologic model of Upper Alaknanda river basin has been developed using gridded meteorological input data sourced from India Meteorological Department (IMD), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Power, and The SWAT (Soil and water Assessment Tool) model. The calibration and validation of the model reflected satisfactory performance with the validation period (2013-2017) showing better match between simulated and observed flow than calibration period (2005-2012). The values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of determination, and Percent of bias for calibration period are 0.65, 0.67, and 14% respectively. Adoption of semi distributed approach for modeling enables to analyze the basin while preserving the heterogeneous nature of the basin. The spatiotemporal evaluation of snowmelt reveals that highest snowmelt was generated during month of April which also causes highest snowmelt contribution to runoff for April (59.76 %). The outcomes of this study reveals that satellite-based meteorological product can be adopted satisfactorily with SWAT model for estimation of snowmelt in upper Himalayan regions which gives a new direction of research in SWAT diaspora.

The impacts of spatio-temporal variation of natural and agricultural influences on the environmental water quality in a fluvial-lacustrine watershed in China

Despite the significant impacts of natural factors such as rainfall, topography, soil type, and river network as well as agricultural activities on the environmental water quality, little is known about the influence of their temporal and spatial variations in a fluvial-lacustrine watershed. In this study, a whole process accounting method based the export coefficient model (WP-ECM) was first developed to quantify how natural factors and agricultural activities distribution influenced water quality. A case study was performed in a typical fluvial-lacustrine area - Dongting basin, China. The simulated results indicated that the natural factors can promote and inhibit the migration and transformation of agricultural pollutants generated from the watershed and the spatial distribution of the natural factors displayed high variability. It should be priority to monitor the areas with greater natural impact in the basin. Moreover, the cultivated land area and the number of pig-breeding were positively correlated with the pollutant discharge. From the perspective of the spatial distribution of comprehensive influence, the comprehensive high-impact areas are mainly distributed in the Dongting Lake district in 2005-2010 and in Xiang River watershed in 2010-2020. A key strategy for controlling or reducing the cultivated land area and the intensity of livestock breeding in these high-impacts areas is recommended to reduce the impact of the environmental water quality for the entire basin.

Complementary use of multi-model climate ensemble and Bayesian model averaging for projecting river hydrology in the Himalaya

Considering the sensitivity and importance of water resources in the Himalayan uplands, this study intended to assess the hydrological responses to climate change in the Jhelum basin. Representative concentration pathway (RCP)-based projections from six dynamically downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were bias-corrected for developing the climatic projections over the twenty-first century. The uncertainty associated with GCM outputs was addressed by using multi-model ensemble projections developed through Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique. The assessment reveals that compared to the baseline (1980-2010) values, the annual mean maximum temperature in the basin will rise by 0.41-2.31 °C and 0.63-4.82 °C, and the mean minimum temperature will increase by 1.39-2.37 °C and 2.14-4.34 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. While precipitation is expected to decrease by 7.2-4.57% and 4.75-2.47% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, correspondingly. BMA ensemble projections were coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the future hydrological scenarios of the drainage basin. With the changing climate, the discharge of rivers in the Jhelum basin is expected to witness reductions by about 23-37% for RCP4.5 and 19-46% for RCP8.5. Moreover, the water yield of the basin may also exhibit decreases of 17-25% for RCP4.5 and 18-42% for RCP8.5. The projected scenarios are likely to cause water stress, affect the availability of water for diverse uses, and trigger transboundary water-sharing-related conflicts. The impact of climate change on discharge demands early attention for the formulation of mitigation and adaptive measures at the regional level and beyond.

Climate change and river health of the Marshyangdi Watershed, Nepal: An assessment using integrated approach

Climate change alters the river flow regimes causing significant changes in the structure and function of an aquatic ecosystem, ultimately affecting river health. This study applied a customized framework consisting of 1-index, 4-components, 6-indicators, and 43-metrics, to assess river health for two seasons and future periods, in the Marshyangdi Watershed, Nepal. Hydrological, water quality, biological and physical conditions were assessed using simulated results from a hydrological model, physiochemical analysis of water samples, macroinvertebrates assemblages analysis, and physical habitat condition assessment, respectively. Climate change impact on river health was assessed based on projected climate (precipitation and temperature) based on regional climate models under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios until the mid-century. Results showed moderate river health condition in both the seasons and it's deterioration for future scenarios and periods. It reveals the need to formulate appropriate measures for the conservation of the river health.

How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective

Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within -5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a "rosy" but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future.

An assessment of climate change impacts on water sufficiency: The case of Extended East Rapti watershed, Nepal

An understanding of water sufficiency provides a basis for informed-planning, development and management of water resources. This study assessed spatio-temporal distribution in water sufficiency in the Extended East Rapti watershed in Nepal. The "Palika" (local government unit) is considered as a spatial-scale and seasons and future periods as temporal-scale. The water sufficiency was evaluated based on water sufficiency ratio (WSR) and water stress index (WSI). A hydrological model was developed to simulate water availability. An ensemble of multiple Regional Climate Models was used for assessing climate change impacts. Results showed water sufficiency by mid-century is projected to decrease; WSR by 40% and WSI by 61%. Despite projected decrease in water sufficiency, annually available water resources are projected as sufficient for the demands until the mid-century, however, seasonal variability and scarcity in future is projected in most Palikas. Such results are useful for water security planning in the Palikas.

Alleviating water scarcity and poverty through water rights trading pilot policy: A quasi-natural experiment based approach

Water poverty is among the most significant global challenges and severely restricts the sustainable development of societies and economies, especially in the world's arid regions. Many countries have attempted to address this challenge. Market-based trading mechanisms represent an essential method of resolving the problem of water shortages and alleviating water poverty. Based on a quasi-natural experiment of water rights trading pilots in China, this study uses panel data from 31 provinces (municipalities) from 2009 to 2019 to explore the impact of water rights trading pilot policy on water poverty through a difference-in-differences (DID) model. The research results show that such policies can effectively alleviate water poverty by improving water-saving irrigation technology, promoting industrial and agricultural water trading, and optimizing the industrial structure. Additionally, dynamic effect and spatial heterogeneity analyses show that the water rights trading pilot policy have long-term effects and have a stronger mitigation effect on the western region of China compared with the central and eastern regions. Therefore, the Chinese government should not only further expand the implementation scope of these policies but also adjust measures according to local conditions to accurately and effectively implement such policies in different regions. Our study provides insights into water policies in China that can better manage natural resources and reduce water poverty in the arid areas around the world.

Multi-Model Assessment of Streamflow Simulations under Climate and Anthropogenic Changes Exemplified in Two Indian River Basins

This study aims to evaluate the climate- and human-induced impacts on two contrasting river basins in India, specifically, the Ganges and the Godavari. Monthly discharge simulations from global hydrological models (GHMs), run with and without human influence using CMIP5 projections under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, are utilized to address the scientific questions related to the quantification of the future impacts of climate change and the historical impacts of human activities on these river basins. The five state-of-the-art GHMs were considered and subsequently used to evaluate the human and climate change impacts on river discharges (seasonal mean discharge and extreme flows) during the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Results showed that human impacts during the baseline period on long-term seasonal discharge in the Ganges and Godavari River basins for the pre-monsoon season are around 40% and 23%, respectively, and these impacts are stronger than the future climate change impact in the pre-monsoon season for the Ganges basin, whereas, for the Godavari basin, the same pattern is observed with some exceptions. The human impact in the course of the historical period on the pre-monsoon flows of both the Ganges and the Godavari are more significant than on the monsoon and post-monsoon flows. In the near future (2010–39) time slice, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Ganges is highest for the post-monsoon season (13.4%) under RCP 8.5 as compared to other seasons. For Godavari, in the near-future period, this impact is highest for the pre-monsoon season (18.2%) under RCP 2.6. Climate-induced changes in both of the basins during both the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons is observed to have a higher impact on future flows than direct human impact-induced changes to flow during the current period. High flows (31.4% and 19.9%) and low flows (51.2% and 36.8%) gain greater influence due to anthropogenic actions in the time of the pre-monsoon season compared to other times of year for the Ganges and Godavari basins, respectively. High flows for the Ganges during the near future time slice are most affected in the monsoon season (15.8%) under RCP 8.5 and, in the case of the Godavari, in the pre-monsoon season (18.4%) under the RCP 2.6 scenario. Low flows of the Ganges during the near-future period are most affected during the monsoon season (22.3%) and for the Godavari, low flows are affected most for the post-monsoon season (22.1%) under RCP 2.6. Uncertainty in the streamflow estimates is more pronounced for the Godavari basin compared to the Ganges basin. The findings of this study enhance our understanding of the natural and human-influenced flow regimes in these river basins, which helps the formation of future strategies, especially for inter-state and transboundary river management.

Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs

Quantification of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological parameters is of high importance and remains a challenge in arid areas. This study applied a modified distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to the Yarkant River basin, China to assess hydrological changes under future climate change scenarios. Climate change was assessed based on six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370), and several bias correction methods, whereas hydrological regime changes were assessed over two timeframes, referred to as the near future (2021–2049) and the far future (2071–2099). Results demonstrate that the DM (distribution mapping) and LOCI (local intensity scaling) bias correction methods most closely fit the projections of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The climate projections predicted a rise in temperature of 1.72–1.79 °C under the three SSP scenarios for the near future, and 3.76–6.22 °C under the three SSPs for the far future. Precipitation increased by 10.79–12% in the near future, and by 14.82–29.07% during the far future. It is very likely that streamflow will increase during both the near future (10.62–19.2%) and far future (36.69–70.4%) under all three scenarios. The increase in direct flow will be greater than baseflow. Summer and winter streamflow will increase the most, while the increase in streamflow was projected to reach a maximum during June and July over the near future. Over the far future, runoff reached a peak in May and June. The timing of peak streamflow will change from August to July in comparison to historical records. Both high- and low-flow magnitudes during March, April, and May (MAM) as well as June, July, and August (JJA) will increase by varying degrees, whereas the frequency of low flows will decrease during both MAM and JJA. High flow frequency in JJA was projected to decrease. Overall, our results reveal that the hydrological regime of the Yarkant River is likely to change and will be characterized by larger seasonal uncertainty and more frequent extreme events due to significant warming over the two periods. These changes should be seriously considered during policy development.

Hydrological modelling of a snow/glacier-fed western Himalayan basin to simulate the current and future streamflows under changing climate scenarios

Himalayan rivers are the paramount source of water supply to millions of people in northern India for drinking, irrigation and hydropower generation. Several researches reported that the hydrological regime of these Himalayan rivers is vulnerable to climate change. In order to understand the hydrologic response of their headwaters and examine the climate change impacts on streamflow, a hydrological modelling study is carried out in the upper part of the Satluj river basin in western Himalaya by using a temperature index based SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. The model performed well for both calibration (years 1986-2000) and validation (2001-2005) periods against the observed daily streamflow at Rampur (R² ≈ 0.9 and NSE ≥ 0.85). The study reveals that having a larger snow covered area, the snowmelt runoff is the major contributor to the Satluj river discharge at Rampur that comes out to be about 68-71% of the average annual water yield of about 600 mm. The actual evapotranspiration comes out to be about 14% of precipitation. The water yield of the basin is about 50% of the precipitation, for which the major part is generated in early summer. Further, to study the climate change impact on future streamflow, the downscaled data of CORDEX CCSM4 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios are used. The bias correction is applied at point level to remove biases from future time series of downscaled data and subsequently loaded into the SWAT model to simulate the future streamflows at the end of the century. The future climate variability in terms of precipitation and temperature exhibited that the climate in the region would become wetter and warmer. A 14% to 21% of increase in annual precipitation is predicted towards the end of the century from the current average annual precipitation of about 420 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Similar to precipitation, the temperature will also be increased by 2.18 °C to 5.71 °C (in both the RCPs) than the current temperature values. The changed climate conditions in future are transformed into the possible range of stream flows using the SWAT model and found that the future climate would increase the streamflow by over 11%-19% at the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The outcome of this study can be used to develop the suitable strategies for sustainable water management in the region.

Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models

With the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), water experts and flood modellers are curious to explore the efficacy of the new and upgraded climate models in representing flood inundation dynamics and how they will be impacted in the future by climate change. In this study, for the first time, we consider the latest group of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 to examine the probable changes in floodplain regimes over Canada. A set of 17 GCMs from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 4.5 (medium forcing) and 8.5 (high end forcing) common to historical (1980 to 2019), near-future (2021 to 2060), and far-future (2061 to 2100) time-periods are selected. A comprehensive framework consisting of hydrodynamic flood modelling, and statistical experiments are put forward to derive high-resolution Canada-wide floodplain maps for 100 and 200-yr return periods. The changes in floodplain regimes for the future periods are analyzed over drainage basin scale in terms of (i) changes in flood inundation extents, (ii) changes in flood hazards (high and very-high classes), and (iii) changes in flood frequency. Our results show a significant rise (>30%) in flood inundation extents in the future periods; particularly intense over western and eastern regions. The flood hazards are expected to cover ~16% more geographical area of Canada. We also find that large areas in northern and western Canada and a few spots in the eastern parts of Canada will be getting flooded more frequently compared to the historical period. The observations derived from this study are vital for enhancing flood preparedness, optimal land-use planning, and refurbishing both structural and non-structural flood control options for improved resilience. The study instills new knowledge on revamping the existing flood management approaches and adaptation strategies for future protection.

Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya-Karakoram

Understanding the response of Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) rivers to climate change is crucial for ~1 billion people who partly depend on these water resources. Policy-makers tasked with sustainable water resources management require an assessment of the rivers' current status and potential future changes. We show that glacier and snow melt are important components of HK rivers, with greater hydrological importance for the Indus basin than for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Total river runoff, glacier melt, and seasonality of flow are projected to increase until the 2050s, with some exceptions and large uncertainties. Critical knowledge gaps severely affect modeled contributions of different runoff components, future runoff volumes, and seasonality. Therefore, comprehensive field observation-based and remote sensing-based methods and models are needed.

Impact of Climate Change on the Streamflow Modulated by Changes in Precipitation and Temperature in the North Latitude Watershed of Nepal

It is unambiguous that climate change alters the intensity and frequency of precipitation and temperature distribution at the global and local levels. The rate of change in temperature in the northern latitudes is higher than the worldwide average. The annual distribution of precipitation over the Himalayas in the northern latitudes shows substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors that impact the streamflow and water availability in the basin, illustrating the importance of research on the impact of climate change on streamflow by varying the precipitation and temperature in the Thuli Bheri River Basin (TBRB). Multiple climate models were used to project and evaluate the precipitation and temperature distribution changes in temporal and spatial domains. To analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow in the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used. The climate projection was carried out in three future time windows. The result shows that the precipitation fluctuates between approximately +12% and +50%, the maximum temperature varies between −7% and +7%, and the minimum temperature rises from +0.7% to +5% in intermediate- and high-emission scenarios. In contrast, the streamflow in the basin varies from −40% to +85%. Thus, there is a significant trend in the temperature increase and precipitation reduction in the basin. Further, the relationship between precipitation and temperature with streamflow shows a substantial dependency between them. The variability in precipitation and streamflow is successfully represented by the water yield in the basin, which plays an important role in the sustainability of the water-related projects in the basin and downstream to it. This also helps quantify the amount of water available for hydropower generation, agricultural production, and the water ecosystem in the TBRB.

Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in a Himalayan basin, Nepal

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the major sources of fresh water on Earth and is currently under serious threat of climate change. This study investigates the future water availability in the Langtang basin, Central Himalayas, Nepal under climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques. The daily snow area for the region was derived from MODIS images. The outputs of climate models were used to project the temperature and precipitation until 2100. Three ML models, including Gated recurrent unit (GRU), Long short-term memory (LSTM), and Recurrent neural network (RNN), were developed for snowmelt runoff prediction, and their performance was compared based on statistical indicators. The result suggests that the mean temperature of the basin could rise by 4.98 °C by the end of the century. The annual average precipitation in the basin is likely to increase in the future, especially due to high monsoon rainfall, but winter precipitation could decline. The annual river discharge is projected to upsurge significantly due to increased precipitation and snowmelt, and no shift in hydrograph is expected in the future. Among three ML models, the LSTM model performed better than GRU and RNN models. In summary, this study depicts severe future climate change in the region and quantifies its effect on river discharge. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the suitability of the LSTM model in streamflow prediction in the data-scarce HKH region. The outcomes of this study will be useful for water resource managers and planners in developing strategies to harness the positive impacts and offset the negative effects of climate change in the basin.

Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part I: Model Development)

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model has been used extensively by the scientific community to simulate varying hydro-climatic conditions and geo-physical environment. This study used SWAT to characterize the rainfall-runoff behaviour of a complex mountainous basin, the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB), in central Nepal. The specific objectives of this research were to: (i) assess the applicability of SWAT model in data scarce and complex mountainous river basin using well-established performance indicators; and (ii) generate spatially distributed flows and evaluate the water balance at the sub-basin level. The BRB was discretised into 16 sub-basins and 344 hydrological response units (HRUs) and calibration and validation was carried out at Arughat using daily flow data of 20 years and 10 years, respectively. Moreover, this study carried out additional validation at three supplementary points at which the study team collected primary river flow data. Four statistical indicators: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) and Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) have been used for the model evaluation. Calibration and validation results rank the model performance as “very good”. This study estimated the mean annual flow at BRB outlet to be 240 m3/s and annual precipitation 1528 mm with distinct seasonal variability. Snowmelt contributes 20% of the total flow at the basin outlet during the pre-monsoon and 8% in the post monsoon period. The 90%, 40% and 10% exceedance flows were calculated to be 39, 126 and 453 m3/s respectively. This study provides additional evidence to the SWAT diaspora of its applicability to simulate the rainfall-runoff characteristics of such a complex mountainous catchment. The findings will be useful for hydrologists and planners in general to utilize the available water rationally in the times to come and particularly, to harness the hydroelectric potential of the basin.

Modelling Watershed and River Basin Processes in Cold Climate Regions: A Review

Watersheds in cold regions provide water, food, biodiversity and ecosystem service. However, the increasing demand for water resources and climate change challenge our ability to provide clean freshwater. Particularly, watersheds in cold regions are more sensitive to changing climate due to their glaciers’ retreat and permafrost. This review revisits watershed system and processes. We analyze principles of watershed modelling and characteristics of watersheds in cold regions. Then, we show observed evidence of their impacts of cold processes on hydrological and biogeochemical processes and ecosystems, and review the watershed modeling and their applications in cold regions. Finally, we identify the knowledge gaps in modeling river basins according to model structures and representations of processes and point out research priorities in future model development.

Modeling the sources and retention of phosphorus nutrient in a coastal river system in China using SWAT

The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for exploring the sources and retention dynamics of phosphorus nutrient in the river system of the Yong River Basin, China. The performance of the SWAT model was assessed. The retention dynamics of phosphorus nutrient in the river continuum and the factors contributing to those patterns were studied. The results showed that an average of 1828 tons of TP entered the river network of the Yong River Basin annually and in-stream processes trapped 1161 tons yr^-1 of TP in the watercourse, which accounted for 63.5% of the annual TP inputs. The TP retention rates in the river network ranged from 3.08 to 63.43 mg m^-2 day^-1. An average of 666.9 tons of TP was delivered from the estuary to the East China Sea annually. The unit area riverine exports of TP ranged from 102.21 to 244.00 kg km^-2 yr^-1. The river network is a net sink for TP and is going through a phosphorus accumulation phase. The results confirm that the river system has a considerable phosphorus retention capacity that is highly variable on a spatiotemporal scale. Because of the cumulative effect of continued phosphorus removal along the entire flow path, the retention fractions of phosphorus removed from all streams at the basin scale is considerably higher than that of an individual river portion. The variations of hydrological regimes, water surface area, unit area inputs of phosphorus, and the concentrations of suspended sediments have a great influence on phosphorus retention.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River Flow Regimes in the Upstream of Awash Basin, Ethiopia: Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Climate Change Scenarios

The Awash River Basin is the most irrigated area in Ethiopia, which is facing critical water resources problems. The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on river flows in the upper Awash Subbasin, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The ensemble of two global climate models (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and MIROC-ESM-CHEM with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for climate data projections (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and historical climate data from 1981–2010 was considered. Bias-corrections were made for both the GCM data. SWAT model was calibrated and validated to simulate future hydrologic variables in response to changes in rainfall and temperature. The results showed that the projected climate change scenarios were an increase in rainfall for the period of the 2020s but reduced for the periods of 2050s and 2080s. The annual mean temperature increases, ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 °C under RCP4.5 and 0.6 to 1.2 °C under RCP8.5 for all time slices. In the 2020s, annual mean rainfall increases by 5.77% under RCP4.5 and 7.80% under RCP8.5, while in 2050s and 2080s time slices, rainfall decrements range from 3.31 to 9.87% under RCP4.5 and 6.80 to 16.22% under RCP8.5. The change in rainfall and temperature probably leads to increases in the annual streamflow by 5.79% for RCP4.5 and 7.20% for RCP8.5 in the 2020s, whereas decreases by 10.39% and 11.45% under RCP4.5; and 10.79% and −12.38% for RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, in the 2020s, an increment of annual runoff was 10.73% for RCP4.5 and 12.08% for RCP8.5. Runoff reduces by 12.03% and 4.12% under RCP4.5; and 12.65% and 5.31% under RCP8.5 in the 2050s and the 2080s, respectively. Overall, the results revealed that changes in rainfall and temperature would have significant impacts on the streamflow and surface runoff, causing a possible reduction in the total water availability in the subbasin. This study provides useful information for future water resource planning and management in the face of climate change in the upper Awash River basin.

Climate Change and Its Possible Impact in Groundwater Resource of the Kankai River Basin, East Nepal Himalaya

Increasing evidence of changing climate patterns is being observed, and the impact of this change on groundwater has a direct impact on the livelihood and economy of the region. The research focuses on the impacts of global temperature increase and changing precipitation on the groundwater resources of part of the Himalayan river system. The spatial and temporal variations of the hydro-meteorological data of the Kankai River Basin in East Nepal were analyzed using non-parametric Mann–Kendall tests and Sen’s Slope methods, whereas CanESM2 was used to predict the future precipitation scenarios, and an attempt has been made to evaluate the possible impacts on groundwater systems in the region. The temperature shows a significant warming trend (0.14–0.64 °C/decade); however, the precipitation trends suggest remarkable variation mostly at higher elevation. The average annual precipitation suggests a decrease of 1.82 mm/year and a similar decrement has been projected for the future. The groundwater in the region has been influenced by the changing climate and the condition may further be exaggerated by reduced recharge and increased evapotranspiration. This understanding of the impacts and climate scenarios will help the planners with better adaptation strategies, plans, and programs for a better society.

Modelling the impact of past and future climate scenarios on streamflow in a highly mountainous watershed: A case study in the West Seti River Basin, Nepal

Hydrological model parameters are important during representation of the hydrological characteristics of a watershed. The West Seti River Basin (WSRB), a prominent Himalayan Basin of Nepal, is a major source of fresh water in the western region of the country. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modelling and identified the most sensitive hydrological parameters, while the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) technique was employed for model calibration. The model was calibrated for the study period (1999-2005) with a three-year warm-up period (1996-1998). Subsequently, it was validated for three years (2006-2008). The results show that the large number of Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for model simulation took a considerable time, without improving the performance statistics. Importantly, significant improvements were observed during both calibration and validation periods when elevation bands (EBs) were taken into consideration. The p-factor, r-factor, coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), Root mean square error (RMSE)-observations, and standard deviation (STDEV) ratio (RSR) were used to measure the performance between observed and simulated values. The values of p-factor, r-factor, R², NSE, PBIAS, and RSR during the calibration were 0.82, 0.80, 0.84, 0.82, 7.2, and 0.42, respectively, whereas during validation they were 0.79, 0.72, 0.83, 0.82, 11.8, and 0.42, respectively. The calibrated model was then used to assess the anticipated river discharge. This study used four regional climate models (RCMs) for precipitation and six for temperature, together with their arithmetical average as multi-model ensembles (MMEs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We analysed the changes in precipitation, temperature, and river discharge for three future time frames: Future1 (F1: 2020-2044), Future2 (F2: 2045-2069), and Future3 (F3: 2075-2099) with respect to the baseline (1996-2005). The magnitude of changes varied according to the different climate models and warming scenarios. In general, the MMEs showed slightly increasing precipitation (higher during the F2 period), significantly increasing temperature (continuous rising trend), and moderately increasing river discharge (higher during the F2 period). Information such as the anticipated shift in the flow duration curve may be helpful to stakeholders across different water sectors for effective water resource management in the future. From the modelling perspective, the results show greater significance for EBs than HRUs during the modelling of high mountain basins with SWAT. This take-home message would be useful to hydrologists and other stakeholders in evaluating different scenarios over a short duration, without iteratively spending higher computational time.

Impact of climate change on hydrology components using CORDEX South Asia climate model in Wunna, Bharathpuzha, and Mahanadi, India

Detecting the probable impact of climate change responses on hydrological components is most important for understanding such changes on water resources. The impact of climate change on virtual parameters of water was assessed through hydrological modeling of the Wunna, Mahanadi (Middle), and Bharathpuzha watersheds. In this article, future hydrological component responses under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were considered for investigating the runoff, sediment, and water storage components. RegCM4 CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 CORDEX South Asia of RCM model was used which is specially downscaled for the Asian region by IITM-India. Delta change method was adopted to remove bias correction in RCM data. Hydrological simulation for current and future periods was performed by GIS interfaced Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The surface runoff of Wunna and Bharathpuzha watersheds and the yield of sediment are expected to increase further under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 and in contrast to Mahanadi watershed. Both blue water storage (BW) and green water storage (GWS) of Wunna watershed are expected to decline under RCP4.5, and rise under RCP8.5 scenario. Both BW and GWS of Bharathpuzha are expected to increase in the future except in western region under RCP4.5 scenario. BW of Mahanadi is expected to increase in the future. However, GWS will decrease in some of the sub-basins. The model-generated results will be helpful for future water resources planning and development.

Modeling the future impacts of climate change on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

It's unequivocal that the global climate is changing, including the rise in atmospheric temperature and variability in amount and pattern of precipitation, and the rate of temperature change in the Himalayan region is higher than the global average. Since precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors of water resources in the Himalayas both upstream and downstream regions, it is important to understand theimpacts of climate change in water resource availability in the future. In this study, we analyzed the historical hydro-climate data and developed a suitable ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate models for the Karnali River Basin (KRB) in western Nepal and assessed the future water availability in different climate scenarios using a semi-distributed catchment scale hydrological model the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate data analysis shows that the atmospheric temperature is rising throughout the basin but there is high spatial variability in precipitation trend. The historical river discharge data analysis do not show any significant trend, however, there is some inter-annual variability. Future projection shows that the annual precipitation amount will increase compared to the baseline so does the river discharge. However, this increase is not uniform for all seasons. The post-monsoon season having the lowest observed precipitation will get lesser amount of precipitation in the future and the river discharge also follows the same trend. These anomalies play a crucial role in determining the future water availability for agriculture, hydropower, ecosystem functioning and its services availability to the people living in the KRB as well as in the downstream region.

Spatiotemporal characterization of dissolved trace elements in the Gandaki River, Central Himalaya Nepal

A comprehensive investigation was conducted on trace elements (TEs) in the glacier-fed Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalayas Nepal. A total of 93 water samples were collected from 31 locations in pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in 2016 to evaluate the concentrations of TEs. Multivariate statistical techniques such as analysis of variance, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and correlation analysis were applied to investigate the spatiotemporal variations and identify the major sources of the TEs. The results classified most of the TEs into two groups. Group 1 including Cs, Li, Ni, Rb, Sc, Sr, Tl, U and V were from geogenic sources, while Group 2 including Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ti, Y and Zn were impacted by anthropogenic activities. Group 1 showed lower concentrations in the lower-middle and downstream segments with higher precipitation and the highest concentrations during pre-monsoon. In contrast, Group 2 demonstrated higher concentrations in the densely populated lower segments with more agriculture and industries, and the highest concentrations during the post-monsoon season. Comparing to the drinking water limits suggested that special attention should be paid to the elevated concentrations of Zn and As. The results of the study provide a basic guideline for future environmental protection in the Himalaya.

Climatic and hydrological projections to changing climate under CORDEX-South Asia experiments over the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayan water towers

The complex snow and glacier (cryosphere) dynamics over the "third pole" mountainous regions of the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayas (HKH) makes this region challenging for accurate hydrological predictions. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on major hydrological components (precipitation-runoff, snow- and glacier-runoff, evapotranspiration and inter-annual change in streamflows) over the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, located in HKH. For this purpose, three different hydrological models (snowmelt runoff (SRM), HEC-HMS and HBV are tested over snow- and glacier-covered river basins. These are subsequently integrated with the climate projections simulated from regional climate models (RCMs) developed under CORDEX-SA experiments. The basin-wide RCM-simulations for future scenarios exhibited an increase in precipitation but decline in intensity of rise over high-altitude zones. The temperature rise showed a maximum increase during monsoon by 4.18 °C, 4.37 °C and 4.34 °C over Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the period 2071-2099 (2090s) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Further, in response to rise in precipitation and temperature, the SRM simulations showed a significant increase in snow- glacier-melt runoff (49%, 42% and 46% for SRM) and precipitation runoff (23.8%, 15.7% and 27% for HEC-HMS) in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the 2090s under RCP8.5. The streamflow projections for SRM showed a shift in hydrological regime with an increase by 369 (168.4%), 216.5 (74.8%) and 131.8 m³/s (82%) during pre-monsoon in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively and then decline by -73.2 m³/s (-13.9%) and -45.4 m³/s (23.4%) during monsoon of the 2090s, in the Hunza- and Astore-River basins, respectively, under RCP8.5. Overall, the projections show that the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change, through alterations in snow- and glacier-accumulation, and melt regimes with substantial consequences for river runoff in the region.

On the Interest of Optical Remote Sensing for Seasonal Snowmelt Parameterization, Applied to the Everest Region (Nepal)

In the central part of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, snowmelt is one of the main inputs that ensures the availability of surface water outside the monsoon period. A common approach for snowpack modeling is based on the degree day factor (DDF) method to represent the snowmelt rate. However, the important seasonal variability of the snow processes is usually not represented when using a DDF method, which can lead to large uncertainties for snowpack simulation. The SPOT-VGT and the MODIS-Terra sensors provide valuable information for snow detection over several years. The aim of this work was to use those data to parametrize the seasonal variability of the snow processes in the hydrological distributed snow model (HDSM), based on a DDF method. The satellite products were corrected and combined in order to implement a database of 8 day snow cover area (SCA) maps over the northern part of the Dudh Koshi watershed (Nepal) for the period 1998–2017. A revisited version of the snow module of the HDSM model was implemented so as to split it into two parameterizations depending on the seasonality. Corrected 8 day SCA maps retrieved from MODIS-Terra were used to calibrate the seasonal parameterization, through a stochastic method, over the period of study (2013–2016). The results demonstrate that the seasonal parameterization reduces the error in the simulated SCA and increases the correlation with the MODIS SCA. The two-set version of the model improved the yearly RMSE from 5.9% to 7.7% depending on the basin, compared to the one-set version. The correlation between the model and MODIS passes from 0.73 to 0.79 in winter for the larger basin, Phakding. This study shows that the use of a remote sensing product can improve the parameterization of the seasonal dynamics of snow processes in a model based on a DDF method.

Long-term hydraulic performance of landfill cover system in extreme humid region: Field monitoring and numerical approach

Hazardous wastes disposed of in engineered landfills interact with rainwater, generate harmful leachate and may contaminate groundwater. To minimize this, a suitable multi-layered cover system (MLCS) is constructed over the buried waste. Field assessment of complex moisture dynamics in unsaturated MLCS and its long-term hydraulic efficiency has not been investigated in detail for extremely humid conditions (annual rainfall >1000 mm). Therefore, the overarching purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term hydraulic performance of a three-layered hydraulic barrier cover system under humid Indian conditions. The field cover setup was exposed to natural weather condition in the Northeast Indian state of Assam, for 800 days. The MLCS was instrumented to measure continuous variation of volumetric water content and matric suction as function of time and depth. The field measurements were used to determine the appropriate input hydraulic parameters and evapotranspiration model that can be used for numerical modeling. The results showed that simulation using drying van Genuchten soil-water characteristic curve parameters and Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model matched the field observations. Events of the highest precipitation and extreme drought (cause for desiccation) did not lead to percolation in the drainage layer (60 cm) and barrier layer (100 cm). Numerical analyses performed for 87 years by considering the climate data of two different humid locations (Eastern and Western part) of India revealed that the progressive saturation of barrier layer occurred within 18 to 20 years. However, when geosynthetic clay liner was incorporated as additional barrier material, the saturation time increased by two-fold (42 to 44 years).

Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use Change Impacts on Hydrology in the Kathmandu Valley Watershed, Central Nepal

The population growth and urbanization are rapidly increasing in both central and peripheral areas of the Kathmandu Valley (KV) watershed. Land use/cover (LULC) change and climate variability/change are exacerbating the hydrological cycle in the KV. This study aims to evaluate the extent of changes in hydrology due to changes in climate, LULC and integrated change considering both factors, with KV watershed in central Nepal as a case study. Historical LULC data were extracted from satellite image and future LULC are projected in decadal scale (2020 to 2050) using CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional contest) model. Future climate is projected based on three regional climate models (RCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, namely, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A hydrological model in soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was developed to simulate hydrology and analyze impacts in hydrology under various scenarios. The modeling results show that the river runoff for RCP4.5 scenarios is projected to increase by 37%, 21%, and 12%, respectively, for climate change only, LULC only, and integrated changes of both. LULC change resulted in an increase in average annual flow, however, a decrease in base-flow. Furthermore, the impacts of integrated changes in both LULC and climate is not a simple superposition of individual changes.

Assessment of Climate Change and Associated Vegetation Cover Change on Watershed-Scale Runoff and Sediment Yield

Climate change has an important impact on water balance and material circulation in watersheds. Quantifying the influence of climate and climate-driven vegetation cover changes on watershed-scale runoff and sediment yield will help to deepen our understanding of the environmental effects of climate change. Taking the Zhenjiangguan Watershed in Sichuan Province, China as a case study, three downscaled general circulation models with two emission scenarios were used to generate possible climatic conditions for three future periods of P1 (2020–2039), P2 (2050–2069) and P3 (2080–2099). Differences in scenarios were compared with the base period 1980–1999. Then, a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index climate factor regression model was established to analyze changes to vegetation cover under the climate change scenarios. Finally, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was built to simulate the response of runoff and sediment yield in the three future periods under two different scenarios: only changes in climate and synergistic changes in climate and vegetation cover. The temperature and precipitation projections showed a significant increasing trend compared to the baseline condition for both emission scenarios. Climate change is expected to increase the average annual runoff by 15%–38% compared with the base period, and the average annual sediment yield will increase by 4%–32%. The response of runoff and sediment yield varies in different periods, scenarios, and sub-watersheds. Climate-driven vegetation cover changes have an impact on runoff and sediment yield in the watershed, resulting in a difference of 5.8%–12.9% to the total changes. To some extent, the changes in vegetation cover will inhibit the hydrological impact of climate changes. The study helps to clarify the effects of climate and vegetation cover factors on hydrological variations in watersheds and provides further support for understanding future hydrological scenarios and implementing effective protection and use of water and soil resources.

Hydraulic Parameters for Sediment Transport and Prediction of Suspended Sediment for Kali Gandaki River Basin, Himalaya, Nepal

Sediment yield is a complex phenomenon of weathering, land sliding, and glacial and fluvial erosion. It is highly dependent on the catchment area, topography, slope of the catchment terrain, rainfall, temperature, and soil characteristics. This study was designed to evaluate the key hydraulic parameters of sediment transport for Kali Gandaki River at Setibeni, Syangja, located about 5 km upstream from a hydropower dam. Key parameters, including the bed shear stress (τb), specific stream power (ω), and flow velocity (v) associated with the maximum boulder size transport, were determined throughout the years, 2003 to 2011, by using a derived lower boundary equation. Clockwise hysteresis loops of the average hysteresis index of +1.59 were developed and an average of 40.904 ± 12.453 Megatons (Mt) suspended sediment have been transported annually from the higher Himalayas to the hydropower reservoir. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict the daily suspended sediment rate and annual sediment load as 35.190 ± 7.018 Mt, which was satisfactory compared to the multiple linear regression, nonlinear multiple regression, general power model, and log transform models, including the sediment rating curve. Performance indicators were used to compare these models and satisfactory fittings were observed in ANNs. The root mean square error (RMSE) of 1982 kg s−1, percent bias (PBIAS) of +14.26, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) of 0.55, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.71, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of +0.70 revealed that the ANNs’ model performed satisfactorily among all the proposed models.

Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Understanding glacio-hydrological processes is crucial to water resources management, especially under increasing global warming. However, data scarcity makes it challenging to quantify the contribution of glacial melt to streamflow in highly glacierized catchments such as those in the Tienshan Mountains. This study aims to investigate the glacio-hydrological processes in the SaryDjaz-Kumaric River (SDKR) basin in Central Asia by integrating a degree-day glacier melt algorithm into the macro-scale hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. To deal with data scarcity in the alpine area, a multi-objective sensitivity analysis and a multi-objective calibration procedure were used to take advantage of all aspects of streamflow. Three objective functions, i.e., the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of logarithms (LogNS), the water balance index (WBI), and the mean absolute relative difference (MARD), were considered. Results show that glacier and snow melt-related parameters are generally sensitive to all three objective functions. Compared to the original SWAT model, simulations with a glacier module match fairly well to the observed streamflow, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and R2 approaching 0.82 and an absolute percentage bias less than 1%. Glacier melt contribution to runoff is 30–48% during the simulation period. The approach of combining multi-objective sensitivity analysis and optimization is an efficient way to identify important hydrological processes and recharge characteristics in highly glacierized catchments.

Assessing Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rubber-Dominated Watershed under Scenarios of Land Use and Climate Change

Land use and climate change exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESS). In Southeast-Asia, the shift from swidden farming to permanent cash crop systems has led to a wide range of impacts on ESS. Our study area, the Nabanhe Reserve in Yunnan province (PR China), saw the loss of extensive forest areas and the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) plantations. In this study, we model water yield and sediment export for a rubber-dominated watershed under multiple scenarios of land use and climate change in order to assess how both drivers influence the supply of these ESS. For this we use three stakeholder-validated land use scenarios, varying in their degree of rubber expansion and land management rules. As projected climate change varies remarkably between different climate models, we combined the land use scenarios with datasets of temperature and precipitation changes, derived from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in order to model water yield and sediment export with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs). Simulation results show that the effect of land use and land management decisions on water yield in Nabanhe Reserve are relatively minor (4% difference in water yield between land use scenarios), when compared to the effects that future climate change will exert on water yield (up to 15% increase or 13% decrease in water yield compared to the baseline climate). Changes in sediment export were more sensitive to land use change (15% increase or 64% decrease) in comparison to the effects of climate change (up to 10% increase). We conclude that in the future, particularly dry years may have a more pronounced effect on the water balance as the higher potential evapotranspiration increases the probability for periods of water scarcity, especially in the dry season. The method we applied can easily be transferred to regions facing comparable land use situations, as InVEST and the IPCC data are freely available.

Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India

Climate change has a significant effect on various hydrological processes in a large river basin. The assessment of these processes is also useful for water resource management and long-term sustainability of any hydrological project. In this study, an attempt is made to quantify the effects of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration in the Purna river basin, India. Three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for the four future periods of P1 (2009-2031), P2 (2032-2053), P3 (2054-2075) and P4 (2076-2099) are considered. Differences in scenarios are compared with the base period 1980-2005. The SWAT is used on monthly basis for the period 1980 to 2005 with calibration period 1980 to 1994 and validation period 1995 to 2005. The projected precipitation and temperature show a significant increasing trend compared to the baseline condition for both RCPs. Similarly, the average monthly streamflow is projected to increase by 24.47 to 115.94m³/s whereas average monthly sediment concentration by 32.58 to 162.96mg/l under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In particular, streamflow and sediment are expected to increase significantly from June to September at the outlet of the basin. The study results give insight into future hydrological scenarios which will be useful for policy makers to implement effective water resource strategies.

Hydrological response of Chamelia watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change

Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km²), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001-2007; validated for 2008-2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources and crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran

This research evaluated climate change impacts on water resources using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) models under representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6, RCP 8.5). First, drought intensity was calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the period 1987-2016. Then, the coefficients of precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature changes were simulated as SWAT model inputs. The results revealed that temperature will rise in future periods and the precipitation rate will be changed consequently. Then, changes in runoff during periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were simulated by introducing downscaled results to SWAT model. The model was calibrated and validated by SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedures (SWAT-CUP). Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.57 and 0.54) and R² determination coefficients (0.65 and 0.63) were obtained for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results showed that runoff will rise in fall and spring while it will drop in winter and summer throughout future periods under all three scenarios. Such seasonal shifts in runoff levels result from climate change consequences in the forms of temperature rise, snowmelt, altered precipitation pattern, etc. Future-period evapotranspiration will rise under all three scenarios with a maximum increase in the period 2070-2100 under RCP 8.5 scenario. Additionally, rainfed crop yields will decline without considerable changes in irrigated and horticultural crop yields.

Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios

This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill–Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020–40). To assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency pattern and to quantify the contribution of each subbasin on the total discharge from the Talar River Basin, Flood Frequency Index (FFI) and Subbasin Flood Source Area Index (SFSAI) were used. Results revealed that the projected climate change will likely lead to an average discharge decrease in January, February, and March for both RCPs and an increase in September and October for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature will likely increase for all months in the near future. The annual precipitation could increase by more than 20% in the near future. This is likely to lead to an increase of IPF. The results can help managers and policy makers to better define mitigation and adaptation strategies for basins in similar climates.

Future climate and cryosphere impacts on the hydrology of a scarcely gauged catchment on the Jhelum river basin, Northern Pakistan

Streamflow projections are fundamental sources for future water resources strategic planning and management, particularly in high-altitude scarcely-gauged basins located in high mountain Asia. Therefore, quantification of the climate change impacts on major hydrological components (evapotranspiration, soil water storage, snowmelt-runoff, rainfall-runoff and streamflow) is of high importance and remains a challenge. For this purpose, we analysed general circulation models (GCMs) using a multiple bias correction approach and two different hydrological models i.e. the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to examine the impact of climate change on the hydrological behaviour of the Jhelum River basin. Based on scrutiny, climate projections using four best fit CMIP5 GCMs (i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, INMCM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CMCC-CMS) were chosen by evaluating linear scaling, local intensity scaling (LOCI) and distribution mapping (DM) approaches at twenty climate stations. Subsequently, after calibration and validation of HEC-HMS and SRM at five streamflow gauging stations, the bias corrected projected climate data was integrated with HEC-HMS and SRM to simulate projected streamflow. Results demonstrate that the DM approach fitted the projections best. The climate projections exhibited maximum intra-annual rises in precipitation by 183.2 mm (12.74%) during the monsoon for RCP4.5 and a rise in T_min (T_max) by 4.77 °C (4.42 °C) during pre-monsoon, for RCP8.5 during 2090s. The precipitation and temperature rise is expected to expedite and increase snowmelt-runoff up to 48% and evapotranspiration and soil water storage up to 45%. The projections exhibited significant increases in streamflows by 330 m³/s (22.6%) for HEC-HMS and 449 m³/s (30.7%) for SRM during the pre-monfaf0000soon season by the 2090s under RCP8.5. Overall, our results reveal that the pre-monsoon season is potentially utmost affected under scenario-periods, and consequently, which has the potential to alter the precipitation and flow regime of the Jhelum River basin due to significant early snow- and glacier-melt.