Crowd-sourced allergic rhinitis symptom data: The influence of environmental and demographic factors

Intravital imaging of the human cornea reveals the differential effects of season on innate and adaptive immune cell morphodynamics

PURPOSE

While the external environment has been shown to shape the systemic human immune landscape, defining the in vivo immune status of peripheral tissues has remained a technical challenge. We recently developed functional in vivo confocal microscopy (Fun-IVCM) for dynamic, longitudinal imaging of corneal immune cells in living humans. This study investigated the effect of seasonal-driven environmental factors on the density, morphology and dynamic behavior of human corneal immune cell subsets.

DESIGN

Longitudinal, observational clinical study.

PARTICIPANTS

Sixteen healthy participants (18-40 years) attended two visits in distinct seasons in Melbourne, Australia (Visit 1: Spring/Summer: November-December 2021; Visit 2: Autumn/Winter: April-June 2022).

METHODS

Environmental data were collected over each period. Participants underwent ocular surface examinations and corneal Fun-IVCM (Heidelberg HRT-3, Rostock Corneal Module). Volume scans (80μm) were acquired at 5.5±1.5 minute intervals, for up to five timepoints. Time-lapse videos were created to analyze corneal immune cells, comprising epithelial T cells and dendritic cells (DCs), and stromal macrophages. Tear cytokines were analyzed using multiplex bead-based immunoassay.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Difference in the density, morphological and dynamic parameters of corneal immune cell subsets over the study periods.

RESULTS

Visit 1 was characterized by higher temperature, lower humidity, and higher air particulate and pollen levels than Visit 2. Clinical ocular surface parameters, and the density of immune cell subsets were similar across visits. At Visit 1 (Spring/Summer), corneal epithelial DCs were larger and more elongated, with a lower dendrite probing speed (0.38±0.21 vs 0.68±0.33μm/min, p<0.001) relative to Visit 2; stromal macrophages were more circular and had less dynamic activity (Visit 1: 7.2±1.9 vs Visit 2: 10.3±3.7 'dancing index', p<0.001). T cell morphology and dynamics were unchanged across periods. Basal tear levels of IL-2 and CXCL10 were lower during Spring/Summer.

CONCLUSION

This novel study shows that the in vivo morphodynamics of innate corneal immune cells (DCs, macrophages) are modified by environmental factors, but such effects are not evident for adaptive immune cells (T cells). The cornea is a potential non-invasive, in vivo 'window' to season-dependent changes to the human immune system, with capacity to yield new insight into environmental influences on immune regulation.

Ambient pollen exposure and pollen allergy symptom severity in the EPOCHAL study

BACKGROUND

Ambient pollen exposure causes nasal, ocular, and pulmonary symptoms in allergic individuals, but the shape of the exposure-response association is not well characterized. We evaluated this association and determined (1) whether symptom severity differs between subpopulations; (2) how the association changes over the course of the pollen season; and (3) which pollen exposure time lags affect symptoms.

METHODS

Adult study participants (n = 396) repeatedly scored severity of nasal, ocular, and pulmonary allergic symptoms, resulting in three composite symptom scores. We calculated hourly individually relevant pollen exposure to seven allergenic plants (alder, ash, birch, hazel, grasses, mugwort, and ragweed) considering personal sensitization and exposure time lags of up to 96 h. We fitted generalized additive mixed models, with a random personal intercept, adjusting for weather and air pollution as potential time-varying confounders.

RESULTS

We identified a clear nonlinear positive association between pollen exposure and ocular and nasal symptom severity in the pollen allergy group: Symptom severity increased steeply with increasing exposure initially, but attenuated beyond approximately 80 pollen/m3. We found no evidence of an exposure threshold, below which no symptoms occur. While recent pollen exposure in the last approximately 5 h affected symptoms most, associations lingered for up to 60 h. Grass pollen exposure (compared to tree pollen) and younger age (18-30 years, as opposed to 30-65 years) were both associated with higher nasal and ocular symptom severity.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of a threshold and attenuated dose-response curve may have implications for pollen warning systems, which may be revised to include multiday pollen concentrations in the future.

Decrypting seasonal patterns of key pollen taxa in cool temperate Australia: A multi-barcode metabarcoding analysis

Pollen allergies pose a considerable global public health concern. Allergy risk can vary significantly within plant families, yet some key pollen allergens can only be identified to family level by current optical methods. Pollen information with greater taxonomic resolution is therefore required to best support allergy prevention and self-management. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to deepen taxonomic insights into the seasonal composition of airborne pollen in cool temperate Australia, a region with high rates of allergic respiratory disease. In Hobart, Tasmania, we collected routine weekly air samples from December 2018 until October 2020 and sequenced the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) and chloroplastic tRNA-Leucine tRNA-Phenylalanine intergenic spacer (trnL-trnF) regions in order to address the following questions: a) What is the genus-level diversity of known and potential aeroallergens in Hobart, in particular, in the families Poaceae, Cupressaceae and Myrtaceae? b) How do the atmospheric concentrations of these taxa change over time, and c) Does trnL-trnF enhance resolution of biodiversity when used in addition to ITS2? Our results suggest that individuals in the region are exposed to temperate grasses including Poa and Bromus in the peak grass pollen season, however low levels of exposure to the subtropical grass Cynodon may occur in autumn and winter. Within Cupressaceae, both metabarcodes showed that exposure is predominantly to pollen from the introduced genera Cupressus and Juniperus. Only ITS2 detected the native genus, Callitris. Both metabarcodes detected Eucalyptus as the major Myrtaceae genus, with trnL-trnF exhibiting primer bias for this family. These findings help refine our understanding of allergy triggers in Tasmania and highlight the utility of multiple metabarcodes in aerobiome studies.

Pollen grading prediction scale for patients with Artemisia pollen allergy in China: A 3-day moving predictive model

BACKGROUND

Artemisia pollen is the most prevalent outdoor aeroallergen causing respiratory allergies in Beijing, China. Pollen allergen concentrations have a direct impact on the quality of life of those suffering from allergies. Artemisia pollen deposition grading predictions can provide early warning for the protection and treatment of patients as well as provide a scientific basis for allergen specific clinical immunotherapy.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model of Artemisia pollen grading to predict development in patients with pollen allergy.

METHODS

Artemisia pollen data from four pollen monitoring stations in Beijing as well as the number of Artemisia pollen allergen serum specific immunoglobulin E positive cases in Beijing Tongren Hospital from 2014 to 2016 were used to develop a statistical model of pollen deposition and provide optimised threshold values.

RESULTS

A logarithmic correlation existed between the number of patients with Artemisia pollen allergy and Artemisia pollen deposition, and the average pollen deposition for three consecutive days was most correlated with the number of allergic patients. Based on the threshold of the number of patients and the characteristics of Artemisia pollen, a five-stage pollen deposition grading model was developed to predict the degree of pollen allergy.

CONCLUSIONS

Graded prediction of pollen deposition may help pollen allergic populations benefit from preventive interventions before onset.

The role of short-term grass pollen exposure in food skin-prick test reactivity, food allergy, and eczema flares in children

BACKGROUND

While the relationship between pollen and respiratory allergies is well-documented, the role of short-term pollen exposure in food allergy and eczema flares has not previously been explored. We aimed to investigate these associations in a population-based sample of children.

METHODS

We investigated 1- (n = 1108) and 6-year-old (n = 675) children in the grass pollen season from the HealthNuts cohort. Grass pollen concentrations were considered on the day of testing (lag 0), up to three days before (lag 1-lag 3) and cumulatively (lag 0-3). Associations between grass pollen and food skin-prick test reactivity (SPT ≥ 2 mm at age 1 year and ≥ 3 mm at age 6 years), eczema flares, challenge-confirmed food allergy, reaction threshold to oral food challenges (OFC), and serum food-specific IgE levels were analyzed using either logistic or quantile regression models. Atopy and family history of allergic disease were considered as potent effect modifiers.

RESULTS

Grass pollen at lag 0-3 (every 20 grains/m³ increase) was associated with an up to 1.2-fold increased odds of food SPT reactivity and eczema flares in 6-year-olds. In 1-year-olds, the associations were only observed for peanut in those with a family history of food allergy. Increasing grass pollen concentrations were associated with a lower reaction threshold to OFC and higher serum IgE levels in peanut-allergic 1-year-olds only.

CONCLUSION

Increasing grass pollen concentration was associated with increased risk of food SPT reactivity and eczema flares in children. The associations in peanut-allergic infants may be related to immune activation and/or peanut and grass pollen cross-reactivity leading to a lower reaction threshold.

Importance of allergen–environment interactions in epidemic thunderstorm asthma

Australia is home to one of the highest rates of allergic rhinitis worldwide. Commonly known as ‘hay fever’, this chronic condition affects up to 30% of the population and is characterised by sensitisation to pollen and fungal spores. Exposure to these aeroallergens has been strongly associated with causing allergic reactions and worsening asthma symptoms. Over the last few decades, incidences of respiratory admissions have risen due to the increased atmospheric concentration of airborne allergens. The fragmentation and dispersion of these allergens is aided by environmental factors like rainfall, temperature and interactions with atmospheric aerosols. Extreme weather parameters, which continue to become more frequent due to the impacts of climate change, have greatly fluctuated allergen concentrations and led to epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) events that have left hundreds, if not thousands, struggling to breathe. While a link exists between airborne allergens, weather and respiratory admissions, the underlying factors that influence these epidemics remain unknown. It is important we understand the potential threat these events pose on our susceptible populations and ensure our health infrastructure is prepared for the next epidemic.

Children With Food Allergy Are at Risk of Lower Lung Function on High-Pollen Days

BACKGROUND

Grass pollen exposure is a risk factor for childhood asthma hospital attendances. However, its short-term influence on lung function, especially among those with other allergic conditions, has been less well-studied.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate this association in a population-based sample of children.

METHODS

Within the HealthNuts cohort, 641 children performed spirometry during the grass pollen season. Grass pollen concentration was considered on the day of testing (lag 0), up to 3 days before (lag 1-lag 3), and cumulatively (lag 0-3). We used linear regression to assess the relevant associations and examined potential interactions with current asthma, hay fever or eczema, and food allergy.

RESULTS

Associations were observed only in children with allergic disease (P value for interaction ≤ 0.1). In children with food allergy, grass pollen concentration was associated with a lower ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity (FEV₁/FVC) and lower mid-forced expiratory flows (FEF_25%-75%) at all lags (eg, at lag 2, FEV₁/FVC z-score = -0.50 [95% CI -0.80 to -0.20] and FEF_25%--75% z-score = -0.40 [-0.60 to -0.04] per 20 grains/m³ pollen increase), and increased bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) at lag 2 and lag 3 (eg, at lag 2, BDR = (31 [95% CI -0.005 to 62] mL). In children with current asthma, increasing grass pollen concentration was associated with lower FEF_25%-75% and increased BDR, whereas children with current hay fever or eczema had increased BDR only.

CONCLUSIONS

A proactive approach needs to be enforced to manage susceptible children, especially those with food allergy, before high-grass pollen days.

Temporal Changes in Pollen Concentration Predict Short-Term Clinical Outcomes in Acute Coronary Syndromes

Background Atmospheric changes in pollen concentration may affect human health by triggering various allergic processes. We sought to assess if changes in pollen concentrations were associated with different acute coronary syndrome (ACS) subtype presentations and short-term clinical outcomes. Methods and Results We analyzed data in consecutive patients presenting with ACS (unstable angina, non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, and ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction) treated with percutaneous coronary intervention between January 2014 and December 2017 and enrolled in the VCOR (Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry). Baseline characteristics were compared among patients exposed to different grass and total pollen concentrations. The primary outcome was occurrence of ACS subtypes and 30-day major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularization, or stroke). Of 15 379 patients, 7122 (46.3%) presented with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, 6781 (44.1%) with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, and 1476 (9.6%) with unstable angina. The mean age was 62.5 years, with men comprising 76% of patients. No association was observed between daily or seasonal grass and total pollen concentrations with the frequency of ACS subtype presentation. However, grass and total pollen concentrations in the preceding days (2-day average for grass pollen and 7-day average for total pollen) correlated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.17 [95% CI, 1.12-4.21]; P=0.021 and OR, 2.78 [95% CI, 1.00-7.74]; P=0.05), respectively, with a trend of 2-day grass pollen for 30-day major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 0.97-2.32]; P=0.066). Conclusions Increased pollen concentrations were not associated with differential ACS subtype presentation but were significantly related to in-hospital mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention, underscoring a potential biologic link between pollen exposure and clinical outcomes.

Associations between grass pollen exposures in utero and in early life with food allergy in 12-month-old infants

Birth during pollen seasons may influence food allergy risk but no study has assessed pollen exposure. Using the HealthNuts population-based cohort of 5276 infants, we assessed grass pollen exposures, in utero and up to the first 6 months of life, on hen's egg, sesame and peanut allergy outcomes at 12 months. Cumulative pollen exposure in the first 7 days of life increased risk of peanut sensitization aMOR (adjusted multinomial odds ratio) = 1.21 (95% CI: 1.01-1.44). Exposure between first 4-6 months of life increased risk of hen's egg aMOR = 1.02 (95% CI: 1.004-1.04) and sensitization to all foods aMOR = 1.02 (95% CI: 1.003-1.04). Grass pollen exposure was associated with food challenge diagnosed food allergy, but only among infants with a maternal history of food allergy. Exposure to grass pollen in the intrauterine period and infancy may be important but more studies are needed to replicate these findings.

5-grass-pollen SLIT effectiveness in seasonal allergic rhinitis: Impact of sensitization to subtropical grass pollen

Background

Temperate grass (eg, ryegrass) pollen is a major driver of seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR) and asthma risks, including thunderstorm asthma. Data for the effectiveness of temperate grass pollen allergen immunotherapy (AIT) in SAR patients from the southern hemisphere, who are frequently polysensitized to subtropical grass pollens, are limited. The 300 IR 5-grass pollen sublingual immunotherapy tablet (300 IR 5-grass SLIT) is known to be effective in polysensitized SAR patients with primary allergy to temperate grasses, however, the influence of polysensitization to subtropical grass pollen on treatment responses has yet to be specifically addressed. Key aims of this study were to measure patient treatment satisfaction during 300 IR 5-grass SLIT treatment and evaluate how polysensitization to subtropical grass pollens affects treatment responses.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted in 63 patients (aged ≥5 years) in several temperate regions of Australia prescribed 300 IR 5-grass SLIT for SAR over 3 consecutive grass pollen seasons. Ambient levels of pollen were measured at representative sites. Patient treatment satisfaction was assessed using a QUARTIS questionnaire. Rhinoconjunctivitis Total Symptom Score (RTSS) and a Hodges-Lehmann Estimator analysis was performed to evaluate if polysensitization to subtropical grass pollen affected SAR symptom intensity changes during SLIT.

Results

A diagnosis of ryegrass pollen allergy was nearly universal. There were 74.6% (47/63) polysensitized to subtropical and temperate grass pollens. There were 23.8% (15/63) monosensitized to temperate grass pollens. From the first pollen season, statistically significant improvements occurred in SAR symptoms compared with baseline in both monosensitized and polysensitized patients, particularly in those polysensitized (P = 0.0297). Improvements in SAR symptoms were sustained and similar in both groups in the second and third pollen seasons, reaching 70–85% improvement (P < 0.01). Polysensitized patients from both northerly and southerly temperate regions in Australia showed similar improvements. Grass pollen counts in both regions were consistently highest during springtime.

Conclusions

300 IR 5-grass SLIT is effective in a real-life setting in SAR patients in the southern hemisphere with primary allergy to temperate grass pollen and predominantly springtime grass pollen exposures. Importantly, SLIT treatment effectiveness was irrespective of the patient's polysensitization status to subtropical grass pollens.

Characterising non-linear associations between airborne pollen counts and respiratory symptoms from the AirRater smartphone app in Tasmania, Australia: A case time series approach

Pollen is a well-established trigger of asthma and allergic rhinitis, yet concentration-response relationships, lagged effects, and interactions with other environmental factors remain poorly understood. Smartphone technology offers an opportunity to address these challenges using large, multi-year datasets that capture individual symptoms and exposures in real time. We aimed to characterise associations between six pollen types and respiratory symptoms logged by users of the AirRater smartphone app in Tasmania, Australia. We analyzed 44,820 symptom reports logged by 2272 AirRater app users in Tasmania over four years (2015-2019). With these data we evaluated associations between daily respiratory symptoms and atmospheric pollen concentrations. We implemented Poisson regression models, using the case time series approach designed for app-sourced data. We assessed potentially non-linear and lagged associations with (a) total pollen and (b) six individual pollen taxa. We adjusted for seasonality and meteorology and tested for interactions with particulate air pollution (PM_2.5). We found evidence of non-linear associations between total pollen and respiratory symptoms for up to three days following exposure. For total pollen, the same-day relative risk (RR) increased to 1.31 (95% CI: 1.26-1.37) at a concentration of 50 grains/m³ before plateauing. Associations with individual pollen taxa were also non-linear with some diversity in shapes. For all pollen taxa the same-day RR was highest. The interaction between total pollen and PM_2.5 was positive, with risks associated with pollen significantly higher in the presence of high concentrations of PM_2.5. Our results support a non-linear response between airborne pollen and respiratory symptoms. The association was strongest on the day of exposure and synergistic with particulate air pollution. The associations found with Dodonaea and Myrtaceae highlight the need to further investigate the role of Australian native pollen types in allergic respiratory disease.

Pollen forecasting and its relevance in pollen allergen avoidance

Pollinosis and allergic asthma are respiratory diseases of global relevance, heavily affecting the quality of life of allergic subjects. Since there is not a decisive cure yet, pollen allergic subjects need to avoid exposure to high pollen allergens concentrations. For this purpose, pollen forecasting is an essential tool that needs to be reliable and easily accessible. While forecasting methods are rapidly evolving towards more complex statistical and physical models, the use of simple and traditional methods is still preferred in routine predictions. In this review, we summarise and explain the main parameters considered when forecasting pollen, and classify the different forecasting methods in two groups: observation-based and process-based. Finally, we compare these approaches based on their usefulness to allergic patients, and discuss possible future developments of the field.

Community Response to the Impact of Thunderstorm Asthma Using Smart Technology

Background

The most severe thunderstorm asthma (TA) event occurred in Melbourne on the 21st November 2016 and during this period, daily pollen information was available and accessible on smart devices via an App. An integrated survey within the App allows users to self-report symptoms.

Objective

To explore patterns of symptom survey results during the period when the TA event occurred.

Methods

Symptom data from the Melbourne Pollen Count and Forecast App related to asthma history, hay fever symptoms, and medication use was explored. A one-week control period before and after the event was considered. Chi-square tests and logistic regression were used to assess associations between sex, age, symptoms, and medication use.

Results

Of the 28,655 responses, during the 2016 pollen season, younger (18 to 40 years) males, with no hay fever and no asthma were the most single and regular responders. During the TA event for new users, sex was only significantly associated with hay fever (p = 0.008) of which 60.2% of females’ responses reported having hay fever, while 43% of males’ responses did not. Those with mild symptoms peaked during the TA event.

Conclusions

Many individuals completed the survey on the app for the first time during the TA event indicating the potential of digital technologies to be used as indicators of health risk among populations at risk of TA events.

Atmospheric modelling of grass pollen rupturing mechanisms for thunderstorm asthma prediction

The world’s most severe thunderstorm asthma event occurred in Melbourne, Australia on 21 November 2016, coinciding with the peak of the grass pollen season. The aetiological role of thunderstorms in these events is thought to cause pollen to rupture in high humidity conditions, releasing large numbers of sub-pollen particles (SPPs) with sizes very easily inhaled deep into the lungs. The humidity hypothesis was implemented into a three-dimensional atmospheric model and driven by inputs from three meteorological models. However, the mechanism could not explain how the Melbourne event occurred as relative humidity was very low throughout the atmosphere, and most available grass pollen remained within 40 m of the surface. Our tests showed humidity induced rupturing occurred frequently at other times and would likely lead to recurrent false alarms if used in a predictive capacity. We used the model to investigate a range of other possible pollen rupturing mechanisms which could have produced high concentrations of SPPs in the atmosphere during the storm. The mechanisms studied involve mechanical friction from wind gusts, electrical build up and discharge incurred during conditions of low relative humidity, and lightning strikes. Our results suggest that these mechanisms likely operated in tandem with one another, but the lightning method was the only mechanism to generate a pattern in SPPs following the path of the storm. If humidity induced rupturing cannot explain the 2016 Melbourne event, then new targeted laboratory studies of alternative pollen rupture mechanisms would be of considerable value to help constrain the parameterisation of the pollen rupturing process.

Personalized Pollen Monitoring and Symptom Scores: A Feasibility Study in Grass Pollen Allergic Patients

Background: Pollen is a major trigger for allergic symptoms in sensitized individuals. Airborne pollen is usually monitored by Hirst type pollen samplers located at rooftop level, providing a general overview of the pollen distribution in the larger surroundings. In this feasibility study, grass pollen-sensitized subjects monitored the pollen in their direct environment using a portable pollen sampler (Pollensniffer) and scored their symptoms, to study the relation between symptom severity and personal grass pollen exposure. For comparison the symptoms were also correlated with pollen collected by the rooftop sampler.

Methods: After recruitment 18 participants were screened for grass pollen specific (GP-sIgE) of which 12 were eligible. Nine participants completed the study (May, 2018). They were asked to monitor personal pollen exposure using a Pollensniffer on their way to school, work or other destination, and to score their symptoms via a mobile app on a scale from 0 to 10. Daily pollen concentrations were collected by a Hirst type sampler at rooftop level. Pollen grains were analyzed using a microscope.

Results: Three of the four participants with high GP-sIgE (≥9.6 kU/l) reported high symptom scores (>4) and an analysis showed a significant correlation (CC) between eye, nose, and lung symptoms and the grass pollen counts collected by the Pollensniffer, as well as the daily grass pollen concentrations monitored by the rooftop sampler (CC≥0.54). In contrast, the participants with low GP-sIgE levels (<9.6 kU/l) reported low symptom scores (≤4) and often other sensitizations were present. For these subjects, no significant positive correlations (CC<0.3) of symptoms with either grass pollen collected by the personal or the rooftop sampler were found.

Conclusion: The results of this feasibility study suggest that correlations between the severity of clinical symptoms of grass pollen allergic patients, and grass pollen counts as determined by the Pollensniffer or a rooftop sampler, is restricted to patients with high GP-sIgE levels, high symptom scores, and no relevant other sensitizations. Based on the low numbers of subjects with severe symptoms included in this feasibility study, no conclusions can be drawn on the performance of the Pollensniffer in relating symptoms and pollen exposure in comparison with the rooftop sampler.

Trial Registration: The study was approved by the Committee Medical Ethics of the LUMC (approval numbers: NL63953.058.17/ P17.304).

Is short-term exposure to grass pollen adversely associated with lung function and airway inflammation in the community?

BACKGROUND

The association between grass pollen exposure and early markers of asthma exacerbations such as lung function changes and increase in airway inflammation is limited. We investigated the associations between short-term grass pollen exposure and lung function and airway inflammation in a community-based sample, and whether any such associations were modified by current asthma, current hay fever, pollen sensitization, age, and other environmental factors.

METHODS

Cross-sectional and short-term analyses of data from the Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study (MACS) participants (n = 936). Lung function was assessed using spirometry. Airway inflammation was assessed by fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) and exhaled breath condensate pH and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Daily pollen counts were collected using a volumetric spore trap. The associations were examined by linear regression.

RESULTS

Higher ambient levels of grass pollen 2 days before (lag 2) were associated with lower mid-forced expiratory flow (FEF_25%-75% ) and FEV₁ /FVC ratio (Coef. [95% CI] = -119 [-226, -11] mL/s and -1.0 [-3.0, -0.03] %, respectively) and also 3 days before (lag 3). Increased levels of grass pollen a day before (lag 1) were associated with increased FeNO (4.35 [-0.1, 8.7] ppb) and also at lag 2. Adverse associations between pollen and multiple outcomes were greater in adults with current asthma, hay fever, and pollen sensitization.

CONCLUSION

Grass pollen exposure was associated with eosinophilic airway inflammation 1-2 days after exposure and airway obstruction 2-3 days after exposure. Adults and individuals with asthma, hay fever, and pollen sensitization may be at higher risk.

Using crowd-sourced allergic rhinitis symptom data to improve grass pollen forecasts and predict individual symptoms

Seasonal allergic rhinitis (AR), also known as hay fever, is a common respiratory condition brought on by a range of environmental triggers. Previous work has characterised the relationships between community-level AR symptoms collected using mobile apps in two Australian cities, Canberra and Melbourne, and various environmental covariates including pollen. Here, we build on these relationships by assessing the skill of models that provide a next-day forecast of an individual's risk of developing AR and that nowcast ambient grass pollen concentrations using crowd-sourced AR symptoms as a predictor. Categorical grass pollen forecasts (low/moderate/high) were made based on binning mean daily symptom scores by corresponding categories. Models for an individual's risk were constructed by forward variable selection, considering environmental, demographic, behaviour and health-related inputs, with non-linear responses permitted. Proportional-odds logistic regression was then applied with the variables selected, modelling the symptom scores on their original five-point scale. AR symptom-based estimates of today's average grass pollen concentration were more accurate than those provided by two benchmark forecasting methods using various metrics for assessing accuracy. Predictions of an individual's next-day AR symptoms rated on a five-point scale were correct in 36% of cases and within one point on this scale in 82% of cases. Both outcomes were significantly better than chance. This large-scale AR symptoms measurement program shows that crowd-sourced symptom scores can be used to predict the daily average grass pollen concentration, as well as provide a personalised AR forecast.