Impact of energy structure on carbon emission and economy of China in the scenario of carbon taxation

An analysis and prediction of carbon emissions in the sphere of consumer lifestyles in Beijing

In alignment with China's "dual carbon" goals and its quest to build an ecological civilization, this study scrutinizes the carbon emissions derived from consumer lifestyles, with a particular focus on Beijing, a high-consumption urban metropolis. Utilizing the expanded STIRPAT model and ridge regression, factors such as permanent population, per capita consumption expenditure, energy intensity, energy structure, and consumption structure are examined to evaluate their impact on lifestyle-associated carbon emissions. A scenario analysis is also conducted to project future carbon emissions in Beijing. From 2010 to 2020, there was an overall upward trend in lifestyle-associated carbon emissions, up to a maximum of 87.8260 million tons. Indirect consumption-related carbon emissions, particularly those associated with residential and transportation-related consumption, constituted the primary sources. The most influential factors on carbon emissions were found to be the consumption structure. Notably, adopting a low-carbon consumption mindset and an optimized consumption structure could foster significant carbon reduction. Projections suggest that by 2035, carbon emissions due to residents' consumption could decline by 39.72% under a low-carbon consumption scenario and by 48.74% under a coordinated development scenario. Future efforts should prioritize promoting green, low-carbon living, refining consumption structure and practices, curbing excessive housing consumption, improving energy structure, and raising technological and energy efficiency standards.

A regional cooperative reduction game model for air pollution control in North China

Due to variations in economic scale, economic structure, and technological advancement across different Chinese provinces and cities, the cost of air pollution reduction differs significantly. Therefore, the total reduction cost can be decreased by capitalizing on these regional discrepancies in reduction cost to carry out cooperative emission reduction. In this paper, taking NOx reduction in North China as an example, a regional cooperative reduction game (CRG) model was constructed to minimize the total cost of emission reduction while achieving future emission reduction targets. The fair allocation of benefits from cooperation plays a crucial role in motivating regions to participate into the cooperation. A comprehensive mechanism of benefits allocation was proposed to achieve fair transferred compensation. The mechanism combines the consumption responsibility principle based on input-output theory and the Shapley value method based on game theory. Compared to the cost before the optimized collaboration, the CRG model will save 20.36% and 13.71% of the total reduction cost in North China, respectively, under the target of 17.68% NOx reduction by 2025 and 66.44% NOx reduction by 2035 relative to 2020. This method can be employed in other regions to achieve targets for air pollution reduction at minimum cost, and to motivate inter-regional cooperation with this practical and fair way of transferred compensation.

How does the transformation of the energy structure impact the coordinated development of economy and environment?

The energy structure transformation is of significant practical importance as it ensures energy security, accomplishes the "dual carbon" goal and realizes high-quality economic growth. In order to explore the impact exerted by energy structure transformation on the coordinated development of economic and environmental systems, this paper employs the coupled coordination degree model to measure the coupling degree of economic and environmental systems across 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021. Additionally, on the basis of theoretical analysis, it adopts the fixed effect model and the mediated effect model to provide a systematic explanation of the impact energy structure transformation exerts on the coordinated development of the economic and environmental systems, as well as the underlying mechanisms. The results reveal that China's structural transformation of energy consumption significantly promotes the coordinated development of the economic and environmental systems, a conclusion that remains robust even after consideration of the explanatory variable substitutions, municipality exclusion, and tail reduction. From the perspective of heterogeneity, regions with better economic development show a more obvious dividend effect of energy structural transformation on the coordinated development of the economy and the environmental system; energy structural transformation imposes a positive impact on the coordinated development of the economy and the environmental system only in regions characterized by high levels of human capital and urbanization. In terms of the mechanism of action, energy structural transformation can facilitate of industrial structure upgrading and then drive the coordinated development of economic and environmental systems. The study proposes several policy recommendations: transform the traditional fossil energy consumption mode, reduce the proportion of traditional fossil energy, introduce corresponding subsidy policies, encourage enterprises to invest in clean energy, boost investor confidence, and enhance employment quality and income level.

Synergistic effect of energy and industrial structures on carbon emissions in China

Energy structure and industrial structure are two crucial economic factors affecting carbon emissions. However, current research often examines them separately, neglecting the potential additional synergistic effect between them. Leveraging the coupling concept from physics, we objectively quantify these synergistic effect and investigate influencing factors on CO2 intensity from a novel perspective of the synergy by combining a coupling coordination model with econometric model of generalized method of moments (GMM) with a panel dataset from China spanning 2007 to 2019. Our estimates indicate that (1) synergy of energy and industrial structures significantly reduces carbon intensity, which is stable after a series of robust check. (2) the reduced effect of synergy can be enlarged by enhancing environmental regulation and green innovation. (3) the inhibiting effect of synergy is significant, mainly occurs in regions with abundant energy resource endowments. Correspondingly, we recommend several policy implications for China and other developing countries.

Mechanism and Impact of Digital Economy on Urban Economic Resilience under the Carbon Emission Scenarios: Evidence from China's Urban Development

China is currently experiencing a phase of high-quality development, and fostering the resilience of the urban economy is key to promoting this development. The growth of the digital economy is seen as critical to achieving this goal. Therefore, it is necessary to study the mechanism by which the digital economy affects urban economic resilience and the impact of carbon emissions. To this end, this paper empirically analyzes the mechanisms and impacts of the digital economy on urban economic resilience using panel data from 258 prefecture-level cities in China between 2004 and 2017. The study employs a two-way fixed effect model and a moderated mediation model. The results show that: (1) The development of the digital economy can significantly improve the resilience of the urban economy in different periods and different city sizes; (2) The development of the digital economy promotes the economic resilience of developed cities and eastern cities more significantly; (3) In the context of carbon emissions, the digital economy positively contributes to urban economic resilience through population quality and industrial structure but negatively contributes to urban economic resilience through above-scale enterprises; (4) Carbon emissions have a positive moderation effect on the historical path of the industrial structure, above-scale enterprises, and the front path of population quality in the mechanism of the role of the digital economy on the economic resilience of cities, and a negative moderation effect on the front path of above-scale enterprises. Based on these findings this paper proposes several suggestions, such as revolutionizing the digital development of cities, optimizing regional industrial collaboration, accelerating the training of digital talents, and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital.

Simulations for double dividend of carbon tax and improved energy efficiency in the transportation industry

The Chinese visional goal of achieving the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" puts forward higher requirements for low-carbon development in the transportation industry. Seeking appropriate mitigation strategies to develop low-carbon transportation has been an important part of low-carbon economic development. This study develops a CGE model to analyze the impact of carbon-tax implementation on the transportation industry. It designs four carbon tax-recycling scenarios and simulates for double dividend of carbon tax policy. Then, it designs three scenarios including improved energy efficiency and a carbon tax to explore appropriate mitigation strategies combination. The carbon tax will reduce carbon emissions but it will also reduce sectoral outputs. However, carbon tax recycling can alleviate the negative impact on sectoral outputs, meanwhile achieving reducing carbon emissions. The energy rebound effect brought by improved energy efficiency will greatly reduce the carbon emissions reduction effect, but the carbon tax can promote the awareness of emission reduction of consumers and inhibit the energy rebound effect in the transportation industry. Therefore, at the same time of improved energy efficiency, carbon tax policies should be timely formulated to better promote the sustainable development of the varied transport sectors.

Exploring the influencing factors of carbon neutralization in Chinese manufacturing enterprises

One of the key issues facing the government in achieving carbon neutrality is what methods can be used to effectively reduce carbon emissions. Taking manufacturing enterprises as an example, this paper studies the carbon emission reduction effects of green technology innovation subsidy (GIS), carbon tax (CT), and carbon emission trading (CET). Under the background of social welfare and carbon emission reduction efficiency, we get the results of optimal carbon emission reduction measures in different environments. The results are as follows: (1) In the initial and mature stage of green technology innovation, GIS is the best choice to improve the degree of green manufacturing and maximize social welfare. CT and CET are the best choice to obtain the highest SE (carbon emission reduction efficiency). (2) In the transitional stage, CET and CT can promote the maturity of green technology. However, with the maturity of green technology, the promotion of green technology has weakened. CT is the best choice to achieve the highest SE. (3) When the carbon tax or carbon trading price is at a high or low level, raising the tax rate or carbon trading price can increase the income of enterprises. Therefore, the government should take measures according to the objectives of different stages. When the goal is to maximize social benefits, GIS is the best choice in the initial stage and transition stage, and CET or CT is the best choice in the transition stage. In the initial stage and fertilization stage, when the highest SE, CT, or CET is the best choice, while in the transition stage, CT is the best choice.

Spatially Non-Stationary Response of Carbon Emissions to Urbanization in Han River Ecological Economic Belt, China

Within the context of the "30·60 dual carbon" goal, China's low-carbon sustainable development is affected by a series of environmental problems caused by rapid urbanization. Revealing the impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions (CEs) is conducive to low-carbon city construction and green transformation, attracting the attention of scholars worldwide. The research is rich concerning the impacts of urbanization on CEs but lacking in studies on their spatial dependence and heterogeneity at multiple different scales, especially in areas with important ecological statuses, such as the Han River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB) in China. To address these gaps, this study first constructed an urbanization level (UL) measurement method. Then, using a bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographically weighted regression model, the spatial relationships between UL and CEs from 2000 to 2020 were investigated from a multiscale perspective. The results were shown as follows. The total CEs in the HREEB witnessed an upsurge in the past two decades, which was mainly dispersed in the central urban areas of the HREEB. The ULs in different regions of the HREEB varied evidently, with high levels in the east and low levels in the central and western regions, while the overall UL in 2020 was higher than that in 2000, regardless of the research scale. During the study period, there was a significant, positive spatial autocorrelation between UL and CEs, and similar spatial distribution characteristics of the bivariate spatial autocorrelation between CEs and UL at different times, and different scales were observed. UL impacted CEs positively, but the impacts varied at different grid scales during the study period. The regression coefficients in 2020 were higher than those in 2000, but the spatial distribution was more scattered, and more detailed information was provided at the 5 km grid scale than at the 10 km grid scale. The findings of this research can advance policy enlightenment for low-carbon city construction and green transformation in HREEB and provide a reference for CE reduction in other similar regions of the world.

Moderation of Services' EKC through Transportation Competitiveness: PQR Model in Global Prospective

The continuously increasing GHG emissions have created environmental pollution and several challenges to ecosystems and biodiversity. The challenges of climate change are multipronged, resulting in melting glaciers, flash floods, and severe heat waves. In this regard, the adaptive and mitigation strategies to manage the consequences of climate change are highly important. The transport sector creates a quarter of carbon emissions, and this share is continuously increasing. Accordingly, this research study uses transport competitiveness to determine carbon emissions of the transport sector for 121 countries covering the time period from 2008 to 2018. The Panel Quantile Regression (PQR) technique is engaged to analyze the study results. The findings highlight that transport competitiveness tends to increase carbon emissions of the transport sector across quantile groups 1 and 3, while it reduces carbon emissions in quantile group 2. The U-shaped services' EKC is validated in quantile groups 2 and 4. The moderation engaged, i.e., transportation competitiveness, changes the turning point of the services' EKC across quantile groups 2 and 4. However, in the high-CO₂ quantile group, the moderation impact of transport competitiveness is strongest as it reduces the sensitivity by flattening the services' EKC. Furthermore, the planned expansion of the population and improved institutional quality tend to mitigate carbon emissions across different quantile groups. The policy relevance/implications that are based on the study results/findings are made part of the research paper.

China’s energy transitions for carbon neutrality: challenges and opportunities

The pledge of achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 is a strategic decision that responds to the inherent needs of China’s sustainable and high-quality development, and is an important driving force for promoting China’s ecological civilization constructions. As the consumption of fossil fuel energy is responsible for more than 90% of China’s greenhouse gases emissions, policies focusing on energy transition are vital for China accomplishing the goal of carbon neutrality. Considering the fact that China’s energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels, especially coal, it is urgent to accelerate the low-carbon transition of the energy system in a relatively short time, and dramatically increase the proportion of clean energy in the future energy supply. Although China has made notable progress in the clean energy transition in the past, its path to carbon neutrality still faces many significant challenges. During the process of energy transformation, advanced technologies and greater investment will play essential parts in this extensive and profound systemic reform for China’s economy and society. In the meantime, these changes will create immense economic opportunities and geopolitical advantages.

Analysis of the decoupling state and driving forces of China's construction industry under the carbon neutrality target

The essential to achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality target in China lies in the performance of the construction industry. Decoupling economic development from CO₂ emissions is the main strategy for reducing emissions in the construction industry. This paper is based on panel data for China and its 30 provinces during 2009-2019. A Tapio decoupling model is constructed to analyze the decoupling state of economic development and CO₂ emissions in the construction industry. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model is constructed to continue the decomposition of the drivers of the decoupling state and CO₂ emissions. The results show that (1) the economic development level of most provinces is positively correlated with their CO₂ emissions; (2) Beijing and Jiangsu reach the ideal strong decoupling state, and Heilongjiang has the worst decoupling state. The same type of decoupling state shows a certain aggregation phenomenon in space; (3) economic output plays a critical role in promoting CO₂ emissions and decoupling of the construction industry in China and the provinces. The main driver of decoupling is indirect carbon intensity; (4) energy intensity has a greater impact on CO₂ emissions reduction in regions with more developed economic levels. Understanding the drivers of the decoupling state in China's construction industry provides a valuable basis for energy efficiency and emission reduction efforts in China and other countries.

Can sustainable development policy reduce carbon emissions? Empirical evidence from resource-based cities in China

Resource-based cities (RBCs) have made outstanding contributions to China's social and economic development over recent decades. Nevertheless, with the worsening climate change and the exhausted resources, how to curb carbon emissions of RBCs to deliver their low-carbon transformation is becoming a problem plaguing the world. To facilitate the low-carbon transformation of RBCs, the Chinese government has formulated many policies, including the Sustainable Development Policy of National Resource-based Cities, 2013-2020 (SDPRC). However, the implementation of SDPRC has not yielded a clear environmental influence. Therefore, this study employs the Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference to investigate this influence based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2017 while exploring the related heterogeneity and impact mechanisms. It is found that: (1) the implementation of SDPRC has significantly reduced carbon emissions and intensities of RBCs, with this effect becoming more conspicuous with the advancement of the policy. A robust test also verifies these findings. (2) Results from the heterogeneity test demonstrate that the implementation of SDPRC has imposed a suppressive effect on CO₂ emissions in eastern, central, and western Chinese regions, especially pronounced in the latter two regions. Except for the growing cities, which are not significantly affected by the policy, the other three types of cities have seen a catalytic effect on CO₂ emission reduction from the implementation of the policy, with the most significant impact observed in the declining cities. (3) Analyses of related mechanisms reveal that thanks to the implementation of SDPRC, RBCs suppress CO₂ emissions mainly by optimizing their industrial structures and relieving their energy intensities. Finally, some policy recommendations are proposed based on the findings of this study to facilitate the low-carbon transformation of RBCs.

Impact of Carbon Trading System on Green Economic Growth in China

Whether China’s economy can maintain sustainable growth has been debated both in China and internationally, and the most representative critique has been summarized in the “Krugman Query”. Faced with such doubts, how to achieve a “win-win” for economic growth and environmental protection has become one of the central objectives of local government work while striving for the new vision of development. Taking China’s carbon trading pilot policy as an example, and based on panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2001 to 2018, this paper uses the Data Envelopment Analysis-Malmquist index model and the Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference method to measure the level of green economic growth from two aspects: green development mode and economic growth effect, and further explore the impact of China’s carbon trading system on green economic growth. The results show that the implementation of the carbon trading system promoted both the green development level and economic growth of pilot cities, and positively affected green total factor productivity, refuting the “Krugman Query”. Finally, the study puts forward a series of recommendations in strengthening environmental regulation, improving green technology innovation, and developing low-carbon industries.

Synergistic effect of carbon ETS and carbon tax under China's peak emission target: A dynamic CGE analysis

Global warming resulting from greenhouse gas emissions poses threats to humankind and has become a worldwide issue. As the top CO₂ emitter in the world, China has committed to achieving its carbon emission peak by no later than 2030; in this context, how to best use and apply carbon emission reduction policy is particularly critical. By constructing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we first examine a pure ETS included only the electricity sector in 2021, and the eight sectors starting in 2022, considering a declining carbon intensity rate of 4.5% and a higher rate of 4.8%. With the carbon intensity rates of 4.3% and 4.5%, we further evaluate two-hybrid systems of the carbon tax and carbon ETS, where the carbon tax of 10 yuan per ton is the starting levied rate in 2022 and increases at 4 yuan per ton year by year. The results proved that hybrid emission reduction policy can help reach a carbon emissions peak before 2030 and do so at a lower economic cost compared to the effect of pure carbon ETS. Besides, the coordinated use of a carbon tax and a carbon ETS can promote optimization of energy consumption structures and accelerate the decline of energy intensity and carbon intensity; this can contribute to curbing the growth of total energy consumption and total carbon emissions.

Transmission Channels and Impacts of Energy Use on Health Outcomes in Asia

Today, the developing economies continue to tackle the penalties of the energy use and its influence on their environmental and socio-economic prosperity, and the developed economies are concentrating on promoting programs and policies to improve and sustain the endowment of adequate energy consumption that pledges less carbon emissions and threats to human health. Currently, millions of people face a dearth of access to reliable, affordable, and clean energy to fulfill their daily requirements. Thus, the mounting need for energy use portends hazardous consequences on human health. This paper investigates the transmission channels and impact of energy consumption on health outcomes in Asia by adopting a panel of selected Asian economies for the period from 1991 and 2019. The findings of the study show that energy causes a rise in infant mortality rate and a reduction in life expectancy. Furthermore, the study found that a high degree of pollution emissions causes a rise in infant mortality and a decline in life expectancy.

Could China's long-term low-carbon energy transformation achieve the double dividend effect for the economy and environment?

Exploring the low-carbon energy transformation pathway is vital to coordinate economic growth and environmental improvement for achieving China's carbon peak target. Three energy-target scenarios are developed in this paper, considering the targets of energy structure, electrification rate, and carbon mitigation towards 2030 announced by the Chinese government. A dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine the economic and environmental effects under different pathways of long-term low-carbon transformation. It detects that China's energy structure would substantially transfer to the low-carbon and clean one, whereas CO₂, SO₂, and NO_X emissions in 2020-2030 would vastly abate along with all three energy-target scenarios. Different pathways would produce varying positive impacts on China's macro-economy and achieve the different extent of double dividend effects. It is highly conceivable for China to peak its carbon emission at 12.4 GtCO₂ by 2028 if it serves the comparatively more stringent low-carbon transformation pathways.

How to Promote Low-Carbon Economic Development? A Comprehensive Assessment of Carbon Tax Policy in China

Facing the increasingly severe environmental problems, the development of a green and sustainable low-carbon economy has become an international trend. In China, the core issue of low-carbon economic development is effectively resolving the contradiction between the exploitation and utilization of fossil energy and greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon emissions). Based on the SAM matrix, we established a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact of carbon tax policies on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and macroeconomics variables under 10, 20, and 30% emission reductions. Meanwhile, we analyze the impact of different carbon tax recycling mechanisms under the principle of tax neutrality. We find that the carbon tax effectively reduces carbon emissions, but it will negatively impact economic development and social welfare. A reasonable carbon tax recycling system based on the principle of tax neutrality can reduce the negative impact of carbon tax implementation. Among the four simulated scenarios of carbon tax cycle, the scenario of reducing residents’ personal income tax is most conducive to realizing the “double dividend” of carbon tax.