Life cycle CO2 emissions for the new energy vehicles in China drawing on the reshaped survival pattern

Life cycle assessment of carbon footprint in dual-phase automotive strip steel production

As the demand for automotive materials grows more stringent in environmental considerations, it becomes imperative to conduct thorough environmental impact assessments of dual-phase automotive strip steel (DP steel). However, the absence of detailed and comparable studies has left the carbon footprint of DP steel and its sources largely unknown. This study addresses this gap by establishing a cradle-to-gate life cycle model for DP steel, encompassing on-site production, energy systems, and upstream processes. The analysis identifies and scrutinizes key factors influencing the carbon footprint, with a focus on upstream mining, transportation, and on-site production processes. The results indicate that the carbon footprint of DP steel is 2.721 kgCO2-eq/kgDP, with on-site processes contributing significantly at 88.1%. Sensitivity analysis is employed to assess the impact of changes in resource structure, on-site energy, CO2 emission factors, and byproduct recovery on the carbon footprint. Proposals for mitigating carbon emissions in DP steel production include enhancing process gas recovery, transitioning to cleaner energy sources, and reducing the hot metal-to-steel ratio. These findings offer valuable insights for steering steel production towards environmentally sustainable practices.

How does adoption of electric vehicles reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from China

We investigate the effect of the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on CO2 emissions using spatial econometric models and have three findings. First, there are spatial spillover effects of EV adoption on CO2 emissions, implying that the CO2 mitigation of a city depends on local sales of EVs and sales of EVs in neighboring cities. A 1% increase in the sale of EVs in a city can reduce CO2 emissions locally by 0.096% and by 0.087% in a nearby city. Second, EVs indirectly impact CO2 emissions through the substitution effect, energy consumption effect, and technological effect. The overall impact of EV adoption on CO2 emissions is negative. Finally, we demonstrate the moderating effect of urban energy structure on EVs' CO2 emissions mitigation. A 1% increase in the proportion of renewable energy generation increases the decarbonization of EVs by 0.036%. These findings provide policy implications for the coordinated development of EV market and energy system.

Can environmentally friendly technology help China to achieve a carbon neutrality target by 2060? An asymmetrical based study in China

Climate change-related environmental challenges are prompting an increasing number of countries to set carbon-neutral targets. Since 2007, China has pursued numerous initiatives to attain carbon neutrality by 2060, including increasing the percentage of non-fossil energy, developing zero-emission and low-emission technologies, and taking actions that reduce CO2 emissions or boost carbon sinks. As a result, utilizing quarterly data from 2008/Q1 to 2021/Q4, and applying the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach, this study evaluates the effectiveness of the measures taken by China to improve the ecological situation. The results of the study show that the measures enacted to reduce CO2 emissions did not accomplish their ultimate purpose. Specifically: (i) high-speed railways and new energy vehicles do not improve the environment in the long run; (ii) investments and patents in the energy sector, as well as low-carbon sources, will degrade the environment; (iii) only investments in the treatment of environmental pollution will improve the ecological situation. Various policy implications are suggested based on the empirical results in order to attain environmental sustainability.

Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment

Although battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are climate-friendly alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), an important but often ignored fact is that the climate mitigation benefits of BEVs are usually delayed. The manufacture of BEVs is more carbon-intensive than that of ICEVs, leaving a greenhouse gas (GHG) debt to be paid back in the future use phase. Here we analyze millions of vehicle data from the Chinese market and show that the GHG break-even time (GBET) of China's BEVs ranges from zero (i.e., the production year) to over 11 years, with an average of 4.5 years. 8% of China's BEVs produced and sold between 2016 and 2018 cannot pay back their GHG debt within the eight-year battery warranty. We suggest enhancing the share of BEVs reaching the GBET by promoting the effective substitution of BEVs for ICEVs instead of the single-minded pursuit of speeding up the BEV deployment race.

The economic and environmental impacts of shared collection service systems for retired electric vehicle batteries

One of the impending consequences of the rapid penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is that a substantial amount of expired EV batteries will present an increasing waste collection and management problem, particularly in the urban context. Motivated by a lack of research on this issue, this paper comprehensively evaluates the relative benefits of shared versus non-shared collection systems, where the service outlets are not exclusive to specified automakers. Using a mixed-integer optimization model, the analysis features spatiotemporal and multiple stakeholder complexities. Based on the historical monthly EV sales data from 2016 to 2021, a representative case study of Beijing, China is conducted, including 16 district centers, 32 major automobile manufacturers, 153 collection service outlets and 4 disposal centers. The results show that a shared collection service system leads to higher profitability, higher collection rates, increased environmental benefits and improved facility utilization. Consequently, this research contributes to supply chain liberalization to foster the efficient waste management of EV batteries. With a further model extension, it can also provide decision support for the policy-making of more countries.

Modeling and simulation analysis of vehicle pollution and carbon reduction management model based on system dynamics

The vehicle exhaust pollution has become an important source of air pollutant and CO2 emissions, with the continuous growth of the number of vehicles. Focusing on the increasingly serious problems of vehicle exhaust pollution and CO2 emissions, a management model of vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction was established by using system dynamics. Taking Beijing as the case study city, different emission reduction scenarios were designed. Different scenarios are analyzed, and the results reveal the following: (1) Although the carbon tax policy for motor vehicles can play a role in vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction to a certain extent, but as the simulation time goes on, the policy effect is gradually weakened. The emission reduction effect of new energy vehicle promotion policy is not significant, and there is a "lag effect" and a "seesaw effect." (2) The science and technology policy has multiple effects of environmental, economic, and health. It can significantly reduce vehicle pollution and carbon emissions, and achieve the peak carbon by 2030. (3) It is not that more policies are better for CO2 emission reduction, and there is a "crowding out effect" in the CS. (4) From the perspectives of long term, the science and technology policy is a more effective way to achieve the co-control of CO2 and PM2.5 and achieve the carbon peaking goal compared with other emission reduction scenarios. These results can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies and realize the management of motor vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

Greenhouse gas emission benefits of adopting new energy vehicles in Suzhou City, China: A case study

The promotion of new energy in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is considered as an effective approach for achieving low-carbon road transport targets. In this study, life cycle assessment was performed for five typical vehicle models in Suzhou City (fourth largest LDV stock in China): internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Their energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions during vehicle and fuel cycles in 2020 were examined using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. GHG emission reduction potential of LDV fleet was projected under various scenarios for 2021-2040. The results showed that BEVs exhibited advantages for replacing ICEVs over HEVs, PHEVs and HFCVs, taking into account China's road electrification policy. The GHG emission intensity of BEVs in 2040 was estimated to be 19-34% of ICEVs in 2020, with a deep decarbonized electricity mix and improved vehicle efficiency. For the aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario, the GHG emissions of LDVs would peak before 2026, ahead of China's target by 2030, and the ~ 100% share of EVs in 2040 would result in a lower GHG emissions, equivalent to the 2010 level. It highlights the importance of early action, green electricity mix, and public transport development in reducing GHG emissions of large LDV fleet.