Environmental factors driving fine-scale ixodid tick abundance patterns

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in questing non-Hyalomma spp. ticks in Northwest Spain, 2021

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) unexpectedly emerged in humans in Northwest Spain in 2021, and two additional cases were reported in the region in 2022. The 2021 case was associated with a tick bite on the outskirts of the city where the patient lived. PCR analysis of 95 questing ticks collected in the outskirts of that city in 2021, none of the genus Hyalomma, revealed a prevalence of confirmed CCHF virus (CCHFV) infection of 10.5%. Our results in this emerging scenario suggest the need to consider that CCHFV may be effectively spreading to Northwest Spain and to urgently understand any possible role of non-Hyalomma spp. ticks in the eco-epidemiological dynamics of CCHFV.

Animal Exposure Model for Mapping Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Emergence Risk

To estimate the determinants of spatial variation in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) transmission and to create a risk map as a preventive public health tool, we designed a survey of small domestic ruminants in Andalusia, Spain. To assess CCHFV exposure spatial distribution, we analyzed serum from 2,440 sheep and goats by using a double-antigen ELISA and modeled exposure probability with environmental predictors by using generalized linear mixed models. CCHFV antibodies detected in 84 samples confirmed low CCHFV prevalence in small domestic ruminants in the region. The best-fitted statistical model indicated that the most significant predictors of virus exposure risk were cattle/horse density and the normalized difference vegetation index. Model validation showed 99.7% specificity and 10.2% sensitivity for identifying CCHFV circulation areas. To map CCHFV exposure risk, we projected the model at a 1 × 1-km spatial resolution. Our study provides insight into CCHFV ecology that is useful for preventing virus transmission.

Mapping the risk of exposure to Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in the Iberian Peninsula using Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) as a model

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne zoonotic pathogen that can cause a lethal haemorrhagic disease in humans. Although the virus appears to be endemically established in the Iberian Peninsula, CCHF is an emerging disease in Spain. Clinical signs of CCHFV infection are mainly manifested in humans, but the virus replicates in several animal species. Understanding the determinants of CCHFV exposure risk from animal models is essential to predicting high-risk exposure hotspots for public health action. With this objective in mind, we designed a cross-sectional study of Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Spain and Portugal. The study analysed 5,291 sera collected between 2006 and 2022 from 90 wild boar populations with a specific double-antigen ELISA to estimate CCHFV serum prevalence and identify the main determinants of exposure probability. To do so, we statistically modelled exposure risk with host- and environment-related predictors and spatially projected it at a 10 × 10 km square resolution at the scale of the Iberian Peninsula to map foci of infection risk. Fifty-seven (63.3 %) of the 90 populations had at least one seropositive animal, with seroprevalence ranging from 0.0 to 88.2 %. Anti-CCHFV antibodies were found in 1,026 of 5,291 wild boar (19.4 %; 95 % confidence interval: 18.3-20.5 %), with highest exposure rates in southwestern Iberia. The most relevant predictors of virus exposure risk were wild boar abundance, local rainfall regime, shrub cover, winter air temperature and soil temperature variation. The spatial projection of the best-fit model identified high-risk foci as occurring in most of western and southwestern Iberia and identified recently confirmed risk foci in eastern Spain. The results of the study demonstrate that serological surveys of CCHFV vector hosts are a powerful, robust and highly informative tool for public health authorities to take action to prevent human cases of CCHF in enzootic and emergency settings.

Dynamics of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in two wild ungulate hosts during a disease-induced population collapse

Identifying the role that host species play in pathogen transmission and maintenance is crucial for disease control, but it is a difficult task, in particular for vector-borne and multi-host pathogens, and especially when wildlife species are involved. This is the case for a Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) hotspot in north-eastern Spain, where Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica) and wild boar (Sus scrofa) are involved, but their roles in disease transmission are unclear. In this context, we studied the dynamics of CCHFV transmission in these two species during the collapse of an Iberian ibex population due to a sarcoptic mange outbreak. We carried out a repeated cross-sectional study measuring the trends of CCHFV seroprevalence in Iberian ibex and wild boar and their abundances. In addition, we identified the tick species present in this area on the vegetation and on wild boars, and evaluated relevant meteorological factors. Results show that while the trends in CCHFV seroprevalence in Iberian Ibex and density of wild boars remained constant (p = 1.0 and p = 0.8, respectively), both the trends in Iberian ibex census and CCHFV seroprevalence in wild boars decreased significantly (p = 0.003 and p = 0.0001, respectively), and were correlated (Spearman's rank, 0.02 < p-adjusted<0.05). The correlation between the patterns of reduction of Iberian ibex abundance and the decrease of seroprevalence in wild boars suggests some sort of shared transmission cycle between the two species. Data from tick species in the area suggest a possible role of Rhipicephalus bursa in CCHFV transmission. The dynamics of CCHFV were unlikely caused by changes in meteorological variables such as temperature or water vapor pressure deficit. Further studies will be needed to confirm these hypotheses.

Determinants of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus exposure dynamics in Mediterranean environments

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an emerging tick-borne human disease in Spain. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and exposure risk determinants of CCHF virus (CCHFV) in animal models is essential to predict the time and areas of highest transmission risk. With this goal, we designed a longitudinal survey of two wild ungulate species, the red deer (Cervus elaphus) and the Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), in Doñana National Park, a protected Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot with high ungulate and CCHFV vector abundance, and which is also one of the main stopover sites for migratory birds between Africa and western Europe. Both ungulates are hosts to the principal CCHFV vector in Spain, Hyalomma lusitanicum. We sampled wild ungulates annually from 2005 to 2020 and analysed the frequency of exposure to CCHFV by a double-antigen ELISA. The annual exposure risk was modelled as a function of environmental traits in an approach to understanding exposure risk determinants that allow us to predict the most likely places and years for CCHFV transmission. The main findings show that H. lusitanicum abundance is a fundamental driver of the fine-scale spatial CCHFV transmission risk, while inter-annual risk variation is conditioned by virus/vector hosts, host community structure and weather variations. The most relevant conclusion of the study is that the emergence of CCHF in Spain might be associated with recent wild ungulate population changes promoting higher vector abundance. This work provides relevant insights into the transmission dynamics of CCHFV in enzootic scenarios that would allow deepening the understanding of the ecology of CCHFV and its major determinants.