Impact of a program for the prevention of traffic accidents in a Southern Brazilian city: a model for implementation in a developing country

The Power of Advocacy in Global Neurosurgery

Advocacy, one of the five domains of global neurosurgery, represents a powerful avenue to influence public policy to expand access to safe, timely, and affordable neurosurgical care. In this manuscript, we characterize advocacy in global neurosurgery, describe specific neurosurgeon-led initiatives, and delineate how neurosurgeons can become involved in global neurosurgery advocacy efforts. Advocacy in global neurosurgery involves working together in organized neurosurgery with organizations focused on clinical provisions, training, and policy initiatives. Effective advocacy uses a data-driven approach with myriad facilitators, including collaboration and approach strategies for sharing information and a variety of contextual, ideological, and practical barriers. The main action fronts for global neurosurgery include identifying needs, broadening access, and assuring quality. Neurosurgery-led initiatives transforming public policy have occurred on regional and global scales and accelerated since 2019. Folate fortification of staple foods to prevent neural tube defects represents a recent and notably successful area of advocacy and remains in progress. Neurosurgeons who aspire to become involved in advocacy efforts must obtain competencies and skills distinct from, yet complementary to, the traditional neurosurgical training curriculum.

Effectiveness of road safety interventions: An evidence and gap map

Background

Road Traffic injuries (RTI) are among the top ten leading causes of death in the world resulting in 1.35 million deaths every year, about 93% of which occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite several global resolutions to reduce traffic injuries, they have continued to grow in many countries. Many high-income countries have successfully reduced RTI by using a public health approach and implementing evidence-based interventions. As many LMICs develop their highway infrastructure, adopting a similar scientific approach towards road safety is crucial. The evidence also needs to be evaluated to assess external validity because measures that have worked in high-income countries may not translate equally well to other contexts. An evidence gap map for RTI is the first step towards understanding what evidence is available, from where, and the key gaps in knowledge.

Objectives

The objective of this evidence gap map (EGM) is to identify existing evidence from all effectiveness studies and systematic reviews related to road safety interventions. In addition, the EGM identifies gaps in evidence where new primary studies and systematic reviews could add value. This will help direct future research and discussions based on systematic evidence towards the approaches and interventions which are most effective in the road safety sector. This could enable the generation of evidence for informing policy at global, regional or national levels.

Search Methods

The EGM includes systematic reviews and impact evaluations assessing the effect of interventions for RTI reported in academic databases, organization websites, and grey literature sources. The studies were searched up to December 2019.

Selection Criteria

The interventions were divided into five broad categories: (a) human factors (e.g., enforcement or road user education), (b) road design, infrastructure and traffic control, (c) legal and institutional framework, (d) post-crash pre-hospital care, and (e) vehicle factors (except car design for occupant protection) and protective devices. Included studies reported two primary outcomes: fatal crashes and non-fatal injury crashes; and four intermediate outcomes: change in use of seat belts, change in use of helmets, change in speed, and change in alcohol/drug use. Studies were excluded if they did not report injury or fatality as one of the outcomes.

Data Collection and Analysis

The EGM is presented in the form of a matrix with two primary dimensions: interventions (rows) and outcomes (columns). Additional dimensions are country income groups, region, quality level for systematic reviews, type of study design used (e.g., case-control), type of road user studied (e.g., pedestrian, cyclists), age groups, and road type. The EGM is available online where the matrix of interventions and outcomes can be filtered by one or more dimensions. The webpage includes a bibliography of the selected studies and titles and abstracts available for preview. Quality appraisal for systematic reviews was conducted using a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews, AMSTAR 2.

Main Results

The EGM identified 1859 studies of which 322 were systematic reviews, 7 were protocol studies and 1530 were impact evaluations. Some studies included more than one intervention, outcome, study method, or study region. The studies were distributed among intervention categories as: human factors (n = 771), road design, infrastructure and traffic control (n = 661), legal and institutional framework (n = 424), post-crash pre-hospital care (n = 118) and vehicle factors and protective devices (n = 111). Fatal crashes as outcomes were reported in 1414 records and non-fatal injury crashes in 1252 records. Among the four intermediate outcomes, speed was most commonly reported (n = 298) followed by alcohol (n = 206), use of seatbelts (n = 167), and use of helmets (n = 66). Ninety-six percent of the studies were reported from high-income countries (HIC), 4.5% from upper-middle-income countries, and only 1.4% from lower-middle and low-income countries. There were 25 systematic reviews of high quality, 4 of moderate quality, and 293 of low quality.

Authors' Conclusions

The EGM shows that the distribution of available road safety evidence is skewed across the world. A vast majority of the literature is from HICs. In contrast, only a small fraction of the literature reports on the many LMICs that are fast expanding their road infrastructure, experiencing rapid changes in traffic patterns, and witnessing growth in road injuries. This bias in literature explains why many interventions that are of high importance in the context of LMICs remain poorly studied. Besides, many interventions that have been tested only in HICs may not work equally effectively in LMICs. Another important finding was that a large majority of systematic reviews are of low quality. The scarcity of evidence on many important interventions and lack of good quality evidence-synthesis have significant implications for future road safety research and practice in LMICs. The EGM presented here will help identify priority areas for researchers, while directing practitioners and policy makers towards proven interventions.

Patterns of Maxillofacial Injures Caused by Motorcycle Accidents

Introduction  Motorcycles are used as a common means of transportation, and motorcycle accidents are responsible for a major portion of trauma injuries. Objectives  The purpose of this study was to analyze the patterns of facial injuries in motorcyclists, to evaluate the types of injuries, and to investigate if the accident-related factors had any impact on the characteristics of the injuries. Methods  This retrospective observational study included 74 patients with maxillofacial injuries following motorcycle-related accidents. Investigated data were divided into four main categories: sociodemographic, accident-related, injury-related, and treatment-related. Results  All the patients were males with a mean age (±SD) of 25.03 (±9.986) years. Most accidents ( n  = 44, 59.4%) occurred in the evening. Most of the patients ( n  = 40, 54%) were traveling on motorcycle models that had maximum speed of over 120 km/h. Furthermore, 15 patients (18.9%) were under the influence of alcohol during the crashes and only one patient was wearing a helmet. Fractures of the maxillofacial bones were observed in 50 (67.5%) crash victims; 24 of them (48%) had middle third fractures, 11 (22%) had mandibular fractures, and 15 patients (30%) presented with a combination of lower, middle, and upper third fractures. Conclusion  Almost all patients were not wearing helmets at the moment of the crash. The most common fractured site was the maxilla. The majority of the patients received surgical treatment. Increased enforcement of safety measures for riders and raising awareness about the dangers of motorcycle crashes are required measures to improve traffic safety and, ultimately, population health.

Do Helmet Use and Type Influence Facial Trauma Occurrence and Severity in Motorcyclists? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This article consists of a systematic review of the literature, which verified whether the use and types of helmets reduce the occurrence and severity of facial fractures in hospitalized motorcyclists after traffic accidents.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prevalence studies and cohort studies, published in Latin American languages with no restrictions on publication dates, were considered. Two authors independently screened reference lists for eligible articles, assessed them for inclusion criteria, and extracted the data using a specific form. Twenty-six articles were selected, all prevalence studies.

RESULTS

The patients who used a helmet had a lower prevalence and severity of facial fractures, compared to patients who did not wear a helmet. There were no differences in the occurrence of lower third fractures between patients who used or did not wear a helmet at the time of the trauma; as well as in meta-analysis of occurrence and severity of facial trauma between helmet types (open or closed).

CONCLUSIONS

It can be concluded that the use of helmet leads to a lower number of fractures and severity of trauma when compared to nonuse. Regarding the type of helmet, there was no difference in the occurrence and severity of facial fracture in individuals who used closed or opened helmets.

Prevention of childhood unintentional injuries in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

Injuries are a leading cause of death and disability among children. Numerous injury prevention strategies have been successful in high-income countries, but the majority of unintentional injuries happen to children living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This project aims to delineate the childhood injury prevention initiatives in LMICs. For inclusion, peer-reviewed articles needed to address unintentional injury, include children <18, assess a prevention-related intervention, contain a control group, and be published after 1988. Two pairs of reviewers evaluated articles independently to determine study eligibility. 74 articles were included. 30 studies addressed road traffic injuries, 11 drowning, 8 burns, 3 falls, 8 poisonings, and 21 an unspecified injury type. The findings show positive effects on injury outcome measures following educational interventions, the need for longer follow-up periods after the intervention, the need for effectiveness trials for behavior change, and the need for an increase in injury prevention services in LMICs. This is the first systematic review to summarize the prevention initiatives for all types of childhood unintentional injuries in LMICs. Increased attention and funding are required to go beyond educational initiatives with self-reported measures and little follow-up time to robust interventions that will reduce the global burden of unintentional injuries among children.

Management of Traumatic Brain Injury at a Medium Complexity Hospital in a Remote Area of Amazonas, 2017-2019

OBJECTIVE

To describe the traumatic brain injury (TBI) care in the city of Coari, Amazonas, from 2017-2019.

METHODS

Ecological study based on the analysis of the data obtained by the Epidemiology Service of the Regional Hospital of Coari regarding TBI attendances in the emergency room from January 2017 to October 2019. According to the Glasgow Coma Scale, TBI was classified as mild, moderate, or severe. Other variables analyzed were sex, age, main causes of TBI, hospitalizations at the admission unit, and transfers to another health center and means of transport used.

RESULTS

One hundred ten admissions were registered: 24 mild TBI, 51 moderate, and 35 severe; higher prevalence among men (70%); and age between 20 and 29 years (29%). The main causes were motorcycle accidents (42.7%), falls (29%), and physical aggression (21%). Some 69% of the patients admitted required to be transferred to another health center, with aerial intensive care unit (ICU) as the most significant means of transport (48.7%). Thirty patients hospitalized at the admission unit progressed with hospital discharge and 4 died.

CONCLUSIONS

The profile of patients affected by TBI in the city of Coari was characterized by male victims of motorcycle accidents with age between 20 and 29 years. The high transfer rates indicates the need for a better neurotrauma assistance. Further investigations and studies associated with regional specificities are essential to recommend changes on the scope of public health and therefore decrease the incidence of TBI.

The Epidemiology of Traumatic Brain Injury Due to Traffic Accidents in Latin America: A Narrative Review

Objective  Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are devastating injuries and represent a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Traffic accidents are one of the main causes, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The epidemiology of TBI due to road traffic in Latin America is not clearly documented.

Methods  A narrative review was conducted using PubMed, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar, looking for TBI studies in Latin America published between 2000 and 2018. Seventeen studies were found that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results   It was found that TBI due to road traffic accidents (RTAs) is more frequent in males between the ages of 15 and 35 years, and patients in motor vehicles accounted for most cases, followed by pedestrians, motorcyclists, and cyclists.

Conclusion  Road traffic accidents is a common cause of TBI in Latin America. More studies and registries are needed to properly document the epidemiological profiles of TBI related to RTAs.

Risk Factors Affecting Traffic Accidents at Urban Weaving Sections: Evidence from China

As a critical configuration of interchanges, the weaving section is inclined to be involved in more traffic accidents, which may bring about severe casualties. To identify the factors associated with traffic accidents at the weaving section, we employed the multinomial logistic regression approach to identify the correlation between six categories of risk factors (drivers' attributes, weather conditions, traffic characteristics, driving behavior, vehicle types and temporal-spatial distribution) and four types of traffic accidents (rear-end, side wipe, collision with fixtures and rollover) based on 768 accident samples of an observed weaving section from 2016 to 2018. The modeling results show that drivers' gender and age, weather condition, traffic density, weaving ratio, vehicle speed, lane change behavior, private cars, season, time period, day of week and accident location are important factors affecting traffic accidents at the weaving section, but they have different contributions to the four traffic accident types. The results also show that traffic density of ≥31 vehicle/100 m has the highest risk of causing rear-end accidents, weaving ration of ≥41% has the highest possibility to bring about a side wipe incident, collision with fixtures is the most likely to happen in snowy weather, and rollover is the most likely incident to occur in rainy weather.

School-based education programmes for the prevention of unintentional injuries in children and young people

BACKGROUND

Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of death in children aged four to 18 years and are a major cause of ill health. The school setting offers the opportunity to deliver preventive interventions to a large number of children and has been used to address a range of public health problems. However, the effectiveness of the school setting for the prevention of different injury mechanisms in school-aged children is not well understood.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of school-based educational programmes for the prevention of injuries in children and evaluate their impact on improving children's safety skills, behaviour and practices, and knowledge, and assess their cost-effectiveness.

SEARCH METHODS

We ran the most recent searches up to 16 September 2016 for the following electronic databases: Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register; Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid MEDLINE(R) In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; Ovid MEDLINE(R) Daily and Ovid OLDMEDLINE(R); Embase and Embase Classic (Ovid); ISI Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded; ISI Web of Science Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science; ISI Web of Science: Social Sciences Citation Index; ISI Web of Science: Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Social Sciences & Humanities; and the 14 October 2016 for the following electronic databases: Health Economics Evaluations Database (HEED); Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA); CINAHL Plus (EBSCO); ZETOC; LILACS; PsycINFO; ERIC; Dissertation Abstracts Online; IBSS; BEI; ASSIA; CSA Sociological Abstracts; Injury Prevention Web; SafetyLit; EconLit (US); PAIS; UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio; Open Grey; Index to Theses in the UK and Ireland; Bibliomap and TRoPHI.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomised controlled trials (non-RCTs), and controlled before-and-after (CBA) studies that evaluated school-based educational programmes aimed at preventing a range of injury mechanisms. The primary outcome was self-reported or medically attended unintentional (or unspecified intent) injuries and secondary outcomes were observed safety skills, observed behaviour, self-reported behaviour and safety practices, safety knowledge, and health economic outcomes. The control groups received no intervention, a delayed injury-prevention intervention or alternative school-based curricular activities. We included studies that aimed interventions at primary or secondary prevention of injuries from more than one injury mechanism and were delivered, in part or in full, in schools catering for children aged four to 18 years.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Two review authors identified relevant trials from title and abstracts of studies identified in searches and two review authors extracted data from the included studies and assessed risk of bias. We grouped different types of interventions according to the outcome assessed and the injury mechanism targeted. Where data permitted, we performed random-effects meta-analyses to provide a summary of results across studies.

MAIN RESULTS

The review included 27 studies reported in 30 articles. The studies had 73,557 participants with 12 studies from the US; four from China; two from each of Australia, Canada, the Netherlands and the UK; and one from each of Israel, Greece and Brazil. Thirteen studies were RCTs, six were non-RCTs and eight were CBAs. Of the included studies, 18 provided some element of the intervention in children aged four to 11 years, 17 studies included children aged 11 to 14 years and nine studies included children aged 14 to 18 years.The overall quality of the results was poor, with the all studies assessed as being at high or unclear risks of bias across multiple domains, and varied interventions and data collection methods employed. Interventions comprised information-giving, peer education or were multi-component.Seven studies reported the primary outcome of injury occurrence and only three of these were similar enough to combine in a meta-analysis, with a pooled incidence rate ratio of 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49 to 1.08; 2073 children) and substantial statistical heterogeneity (I² = 63%). However, this body of evidence was low certainty, due to concerns over this heterogeneity (inconsistency) and imprecision. This heterogeneity may be explained by the non-RCT study design of one of the studies, as a sensitivity analysis with this study removed found stronger evidence of an effect and no heterogeneity (I² = 0%).Two studies report an improvement in safety skills in the intervention group. Likewise, the four studies measuring observed safety behaviour reported an improvement in the intervention group relative to the control. Thirteen out of 19 studies describing self-reported behaviour and safety practices showed improvements, and of the 21 studies assessing changes in safety knowledge, 19 reported an improvement in at least one question domain in the intervention compared to the control group. However, we were unable to pool data for our secondary outcomes, so our conclusions were limited, as they were drawn from highly diverse single studies and the body of evidence was low (safety skills) or very low (behaviour, safety knowledge) certainty. Only one study reported intervention costs but did not undertake a full economic evaluation (very low certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence to determine whether school-based educational programmes can prevent unintentional injuries. More high-quality studies are needed to evaluate the impact of educational programmes on injury occurrence. There is some weak evidence that such programmes improve safety skills, behaviour/practices and knowledge, although the evidence was of low or very low quality certainty. We found insufficient economic studies to assess cost-effectiveness.

Road Traffic Injury Prevention Initiatives: A Systematic Review and Metasummary of Effectiveness in Low and Middle Income Countries

Background

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a growing but neglected global health crisis, requiring effective prevention to promote sustainable safety. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) share a disproportionately high burden with 90% of the world’s road traffic deaths, and where RTIs are escalating due to rapid urbanization and motorization. Although several studies have assessed the effectiveness of a specific intervention, no systematic reviews have been conducted summarizing the effectiveness of RTI prevention initiatives specifically performed in LMIC settings; this study will help fill this gap.

Methods

In accordance with PRISMA guidelines we searched the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, TRID, Lilacs, Scielo and Global Health. Articles were eligible if they considered RTI prevention in LMICs by evaluating a prevention-related intervention with outcome measures of crash, RTI, or death. In addition, a reference and citation analysis was conducted as well as a data quality assessment. A qualitative metasummary approach was used for data analysis and effect sizes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of emerging themes.

Results

Of the 8560 articles from the literature search, 18 articles from 11 LMICs fit the eligibility and inclusion criteria. Of these studies, four were from Sub-Saharan Africa, ten from Latin America and the Caribbean, one from the Middle East, and three from Asia. Half of the studies focused specifically on legislation, while the others focused on speed control measures, educational interventions, enforcement, road improvement, community programs, or a multifaceted intervention.

Conclusion

Legislation was the most common intervention evaluated with the best outcomes when combined with strong enforcement initiatives or as part of a multifaceted approach. Because speed control is crucial to crash and injury prevention, road improvement interventions in LMIC settings should carefully consider how the impact of improvements will affect speed and traffic flow. Further road traffic injury prevention interventions should be performed in LMICs with patient-centered outcomes in order to guide injury prevention in these complex settings.

How can we teach them about neurotrauma prevention? Prospective and randomized "Pense Bem-Caxias do Sul" study with multiple interventions in preteens and adolescents

OBJECT.: A previous study published by the authors showed that a single intervention could not change the baseline attitudes toward neurotrauma prevention. The present study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple interventions in modifying knowledge and attitudes for the prevention of neurotrauma in Brazilian preteens and adolescents.

METHODS

In a randomized controlled trial, fifth-year primary school (PS) and second-year high school (HS) students were divided into a control and 2 intervention (single/multiple) groups. The study was conducted in the following 8 stages: T1, questionnaire to measure baseline characteristics; T2, lecture on trauma prevention; T3, reapplying the questionnaire used in T1; T4, Traffic Department intervention; T5, a play about trauma and its consequences; T6, Fire Department intervention; T7, Emergency Medical Service intervention; and T8, reapplying the questionnaire used in T1 and T3. Positive answers were considered those affirming the use of safety devices "always or sometimes" and negative as "never" using safety devices.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 535 students. Regarding attitudes, students in all groups at any stage of measurement showed protective behavior more than 95% of the time about seat belt use. There were only differences between attitudes in PS and HS students on T8 assessment concerning the use of safety equipment on bikes in the multiple-intervention group and concerning the use of safety equipment on skateboards and rollerblades in single- and multiple-intervention groups. These differences were caused mainly by the reduction in positive answers by the HS group, rather than by the increase in positive or protective answers by the PS group. However, there was no difference when the control and intervention groups were compared, independent of the attitudes or the student groups studied. The most important reason for not using protective devices was the belief that they would not get hurt.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple and different types of educational interventions, such as lectures, scenes from plays about trauma and its consequences, traffic and fire department intervention, and medical emergency intervention directed to preteens and adolescents from public and private schools did not modify most students' attitudes toward injury prevention. Clinical trial registration no: U1111-1121-0192 (National System of Ethics and Research in Brazil).

Epilepsy in poor regions of the world

Epilepsy is a common disorder, particularly in poor areas of the world, and can have a devastating effect on people with the disorder and their families. The burden of epilepsy in low-income countries is more than twice that found in high-income countries, probably because the incidence of risk factors is higher. Many of these risk factors can be prevented with inexpensive interventions, but there are only a few studies that have assessed the effect of reducing risk factors on the burden of epilepsy. The mortality associated with epilepsy in low-income countries is substantially higher than in less impoverished countries and most deaths seem to be related to untreated epilepsy (eg, as a result of falls or status epilepticus), but the risk factors for death have not been adequately examined. Epilepsy is associated with substantial stigma in low-income countries, which acts as a barrier to patients accessing biomedical treatment and becoming integrated within society. Seizures can be controlled by inexpensive antiepileptic drugs, but the supply and quality of these drugs can be erratic in poor areas. The treatment gap for epilepsy is high (>60%) in deprived areas, but this could be reduced with low-cost interventions. The substantial burden of epilepsy in poor regions of the world can be reduced by preventing the risk factors, reducing stigma, improving access to biomedical diagnosis and treatment, and ensuring that there is a continuous supply of good quality antiepileptic drugs.

Impact of an injury prevention program on teenagers' knowledge and attitudes: results of the Pense Bem-Caxias do Sul Project

OBJECT

Trauma is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in children, young people, and working-age adults. Because of the high incidence of intentional and unintentional injuries in young people, it is necessary to implement injury-prevention programs and measure the efficacy of these initiatives. The authors evaluated the effectiveness of an injury-prevention program in high school students in a city in southern Brazil.

METHODS

In a randomized controlled study, 1049 high school students were divided into a control group and intervention group. The study was conducted in the following 3 stages: a questionnaire was applied 1 week before the educational intervention (P0), shortly after the intervention (P1), and 5 months later (P3). In the control group, a questionnaire based on the Pense Bem Project was applied at the 3 time stages, without any intervention between the stages.

RESULTS

The postintervention analysis evidenced a slight change in knowledge about unintentional spinal cord and brain injuries. Regarding attitudes, the only significant improvement after the intervention lecture was in the use of helmets, which remained high 5 months later. A substantial number of students only partially agreed with using safety behaviors. The only significant postintervention change was the major agreement to check swimming pool depth before entering the water (P0 89% and P1 97.8%, p < 0.001; P2 92.8%, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

An educational intervention based on a single lecture improved students' knowledge of traumatic brain and spinal cord injuries, but this type of intervention did not modify most attitudes toward injury prevention. Clinical trial registration no.: U1111-1121-0192.

Projecting the health and economic impact of road safety initiatives: a case study of a multi-country project

OBJECTIVE

The Road Safety in 10 Countries (RS-10) project will implement 12 different road safety interventions at specific sites within 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This evaluation reports the number of lives that RS-10 is projected to save in those locations, the economic value of the risk reduction, and the maximum level of investment that a public health intervention of this magnitude would be able to incur before its costs outweigh its health benefits.

METHODS

We assumed a 5-year time implementation horizon corresponding to the duration of RS-10. Based on a preliminary literature review, we estimated the effectiveness for each of the RS-10 interventions. Applying these effectiveness estimates to the size of the population at risk at RS-10 sites, we calculated the number of lives and life years saved (LYS) by RS-10. We projected the value of a statistical life (VSL) in each RS-10 country based on gross national income (GNI) and estimated the value of the lives saved using each country's VSL. Sensitivity analysis addressed robustness to assumptions about elasticity, discount rates, and intervention effectiveness.

RESULTS

From the evidence base reviewed, only 13 studies met our selection criteria. Such a limited base presents uncertainties about the potential impact of the modeled interventions. We tried to account for these uncertainties by allowing effectiveness to vary ± 20 percent for each intervention. Despite this variability, RS-10 remains likely to be worth the investment. RS-10 is expected to save 10,310 lives over 5 years (discounted at 3%). VSL and $/LYS methods provide concordant results. Based on our estimates of each country's VSL, the respective countries would be willing to pay $2.45 billion to lower these fatality risks (varying intervention effectiveness by ± 20 percent, the corresponding range is $2.0-$2.9 billion). Analysis based on $/LYS shows that the RS-10 project will be cost-effective as long as its costs do not exceed $5.14 billion (under ± 20% intervention effectiveness, the range = $4.1-$6.2 billion). Even at low efficacy, these estimates are still several orders of magnitude above the $125 million projected investment.

CONCLUSION

RS-10 is likely to yield high returns for invested resources. The study's chief limitation was the reliance on the world's limited evidence base on how effective the road safety interventions will be. Planned evaluation of RS-10 will enhance planners' ability to conduct economic assessments of road safety in developing countries.

Road traffic deaths in Brazil: rising trends in pedestrian and motorcycle occupant deaths

OBJECTIVE

According to the World Health Organization, the global burden of road traffic mortality exceeds 1.27 million people annually; over 90 percent occur in low- and middle-income countries. Brazil's road traffic mortality rate of ∼20 per 100,000 is significantly higher than nearby Chile or Argentina. To date, there has been very little information published on road traffic fatalities among vulnerable road users (VRUs) in Brazil.

METHODS

Road traffic fatality data from 2000 to 2008 were extracted from Brazil's Mortality Information System (SIM). Road traffic deaths were extracted using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) V-codes (V01-V89) and then subcategorized by VRU categories. Information was then disaggregated by gender, age, and region.

RESULTS

In 2008, 39,211 deaths due to road traffic injuries were recorded in Brazil, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 20.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. Pedestrian mortality averaged 5.46 deaths per 100,000 between 2000 and 2008. The mortality rate for elderly pedestrians (80+ years) is 20.1 per 100,000, over 10 times that of 0- to 9-year-olds. In the past decade, motorcycle occupant mortality has dramatically increased by over 300 percent from 1.5 per 100,000 in 2000 to 4.7 per 100,000 in 2008. The 20- to 29-year age group remains most affected by motorcycle deaths, with a peak fatality rate of 10.76 per 100,000 in 2008. The north and northeast regions, with the lower per capita gross domestic product (GDP), have higher proportions of VRU deaths compared with other regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Vulnerable road users are contributing an increasing proportion of the road traffic fatalities in Brazil. Nationally, elderly pedestrians are at particularly high risk and motorcycle fatalities are increasing at a rapid rate. Less prosperous regions have higher proportions of VRU deaths. Understanding the epidemiology of road traffic mortality in vulnerable road user categories will better allow for targeted interventions to reduce these preventable deaths.