The role of soluble thrombomodulin in the risk stratification and prognosis evaluation of septic patients in the emergency department

Basal procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and presepsin for prediction of mortality in critically ill septic patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous biomarkers have been proposed for diagnosis, therapeutic, and prognosis in sepsis. Previous evaluations of the value of biomarkers for predicting mortality due to this life-threatening condition fail to address the complexity of this condition and the risk of bias associated with prognostic studies. We evaluate the predictive performance of four of these biomarkers in the prognosis of mortality through a methodologically sound evaluation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine, in critically ill adults with sepsis, whether procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and presepsin (sCD14) are independent prognostic factors for mortality. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to March 2023. Only Phase-2 confirmatory prognostic factor studies among critically ill septic adults were included. Random effects meta-analyses pooled the prognostic association estimates.

RESULTS

We included 60 studies (15,681 patients) with 99 biomarker assessments. Quality of the statistical analysis and reporting domains using the QUIPS tool showed high risk of bias in > 60% assessments. The biomarker measurement as a continuous variable in models adjusted by key covariates (age and severity score) for predicting mortality at 28-30 days showed a null or near to null association for basal PCT (pooled OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.99-1.003), CRP (OR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.17), and IL-6 (OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 1.01-1.03) and sCD14 (pooled HR = 1.003, 95% CI = 1.000 to 1.006). Additional meta-analyses accounting for other prognostic covariates had similarly null findings.

CONCLUSION

Baseline, isolated measurement of PCT, CRP, IL-6, and sCD14 has not been shown to help predict mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis. The role of these biomarkers should be evaluated in new studies where the patient selection would be standardized and the measurement of biomarker results.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42019128790).

Potential Biomarkers for Early Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Prognosis of Sepsis-Induced Coagulopathy

Sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) is a life-threatening complication characterized by the systemic activation of coagulation in sepsis. The diagnostic criteria of SIC consist of three items, including Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, platelet count, and prothrombin time (PT)-international normalized ratio (INR). SIC has a high prevalence and it can lead to a higher mortality rate and longer length of hospital and ICU stay. Thus, the early detection of SIC is extremely important. It is unfortunate that there is still no precise biomarker for early diagnosis and assessment of the prognosis of SIC. We reviewed the current literature and discovered that some potential biomarkers, such as soluble thrombomodulin (sTM), thrombin-antithrombin complex (TAT), tissue plasminogen activator-inhibitor complex (t-PAIC), α2-plasmin inhibitor-plasmin complex (PIC), C-type lectin-like receptor 2 (CLEC-2), neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), prothrombin fragment 1.2 (F1.2), Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) may be useful for early diagnosis, evaluation, and prognosis of SIC. Early initiation of treatment without missing any therapeutic opportunities may improve SIC patients' prognosis. Further large-scale clinical studies are still needed to confirm the role of these biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis assessment of SIC.

Current Status of Antibiotic Stewardship and the Role of Biomarkers in Antibiotic Stewardship Programs

The importance of antibiotic stewardship is increasingly emphasized in accordance with the increasing incidences of multidrug-resistant organisms and accompanying increases in disease burden. This review describes the obstacles in operating an antibiotic stewardship program (ASP), and whether the use of biomarkers within currently available resources can help. Surveys conducted around the world have shown that major obstacles to ASPs are shortages of time and personnel, lack of appropriate compensation for ASP operation, and lack of guidelines or appropriate manuals. Sufficient investment, such as the provision of full-time equivalent ASP practitioners, and adoption of computerized clinical decision systems are useful measures to improve ASP within an institution. However, these methods are not easy in terms of both time commitments and cost. Some biomarkers, such as C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and presepsin are promising tools in ASP due to their utility in diagnosis and forecasting the prognosis of sepsis. Recent studies have demonstrated the usefulness of algorithmic approaches based on procalcitonin level to determine the initiation or discontinuation of antibiotics, which would be helpful in decreasing antibiotics use, resulting in more appropriate antibiotics use.

Unlocking the Untapped Potential of Endothelial Kinase and Phosphatase Involvement in Sepsis for Drug Treatment Design

Sepsis is a devastating clinical condition that can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Despite advancements in our understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying sepsis and sepsis-associated multiple organ failure, no effective therapeutic treatment to directly counteract it has yet been established. The endothelium is considered to play an important role in sepsis. This review highlights a number of signal transduction pathways involved in endothelial inflammatory activation and dysregulated endothelial barrier function in response to sepsis conditions. Within these pathways – NF-κB, Rac1/RhoA GTPases, AP-1, APC/S1P, Angpt/Tie2, and VEGF/VEGFR2 – we focus on the role of kinases and phosphatases as potential druggable targets for therapeutic intervention. Animal studies and clinical trials that have been conducted for this purpose are discussed, highlighting reasons why they might not have resulted in the expected outcomes, and which lessons can be learned from this. Lastly, opportunities and challenges that sepsis and sepsis-associated multiple organ failure research are currently facing are presented, including recommendations on improved experimental design to increase the translational power of preclinical research to the clinic.

Elevated plasma D-dimer levels are associated with the poor prognosis of critically ill children

BACKGROUND

D-dimer has been shown as a valuable predictor for the prognosis of sepsis. But the prognostic association of an elevated D-dimer with adverse outcomes of all critical illnesses in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) has received far less emphasis.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective study, including 7,648 critical patients aged between 28 days and 18 years from the pediatric intensive care (PIC) database from 2010 to 2018. The primary outcome was the in-hospital mortality rate.

RESULTS

Higher levels of D-dimer, INR, PT, APTT, and lower Fib were observed in the non-survivor group (all P < 0.001). D-dimer, INR, PT and APTT were independent risk factors for prognosis in critically ill children. There was the highest AUROC in D-dimer for predicting in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients compared with INR, PT, APTT, and Fib (D-dimer: 0.77 vs. INR: 0.73 vs. PT: 0.73 vs. APTT: 0.64 vs. Fib: 0.60). The cut-off value, sensitivity, and specificity of D-dimer were 1.53, 0.65, and 0.77, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed a stable evaluation effectiveness of D-dimer for predicting in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients in the age and gender groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We found poorer coagulation function in the non-survivors compared with the survivors. Among the coagulation indicators, D-dimer was most strongly associated with in-hospital mortality of unselected critically ill children.

Performance of D-dimer for predicting sepsis mortality in the intensive care unit

Introduction

The prognostic value of D-dimer (DD) in sepsis remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate the performance of DD for predicting sepsis mortality in the hospital and for identifying its potential correlates.

Materials and methods

The clinical and laboratory data of adult sepsis patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III, v1.4) database using the structured query language (SQL). The database contains critical illness admitted to the intensive care unit at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between June 2001 and October 2012. The association between DD and mortality was investigated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, restricted cubic spline and logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analysis was also used for identifying DD correlates.

Results

The study population consisted of 358 sepsis patients. Those who died during hospital stay (N = 160) had significantly higher DD values than those who survived (N = 198). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of DD was 0.59 (P < 0.010). In subgroup analysis, white blood cell (WBC) count > 18 x10⁹/L and vasopressor therapy significantly decreased DD diagnostic performance. Categorical DD value was independently associated with hospital mortality after sequential organ failure score (SOFA) and blood lactate adjustment. Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a U-shape relationship between DD and in-hospital mortality.

Discussion

We conclude that the accuracy of DD for predicting in-hospital sepsis mortality depends on WBC count and vasopressor therapy. Both low and extremely elevated DD values are associated with higher risk of death.

Predicting mortality in adult patients with sepsis in the emergency department by using combinations of biomarkers and clinical scoring systems: a systematic review

Background

Sepsis can be detected in an early stage in the emergency department (ED) by biomarkers and clinical scoring systems. A combination of multiple biomarkers or biomarker with clinical scoring system might result in a higher predictive value on mortality. The goal of this systematic review is to evaluate the available literature on combinations of biomarkers and clinical scoring systems on 1-month mortality in patients with sepsis in the ED.

Methods

We performed a systematic search using MEDLINE, EMBASE and Google Scholar. Articles were included if they evaluated at least one biomarker combined with another biomarker or clinical scoring system and reported the prognostic accuracy on 28 or 30 day mortality by area under the curve (AUC) in patients with sepsis. We did not define biomarker cut-off values in advance.

Results

We included 18 articles in which a total of 35 combinations of biomarkers and clinical scoring systems were studied, of which 33 unique combinations. In total, seven different clinical scoring systems and 21 different biomarkers were investigated. The combination of procalcitonin (PCT), lactate, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score-2 (SAPS-2) resulted in the highest AUC on 1-month mortality.

Conclusion

The studies we found in this systematic review were too heterogeneous to conclude that a certain combination it should be used in the ED to predict 1-month mortality in patients with sepsis. Future studies should focus on clinical scoring systems which require a limited amount of clinical parameters, such as the qSOFA score in combination with a biomarker that is already routinely available in the ED.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-021-00461-z.

Procalcitonin in clinical practice: from diagnosis of sepsis to antibiotic therapy

A diagnostic algorithm that allows for the rapid identification of sepsis and possibly guides the appropriate antimicrobial therapy application is the cornerstone to obtaining effective treatment and better results. The use of emerging surrogate markers could significantly improve clinical practice, but the validity and clinical utility have been proved only for very few of them, and their availability in clinical routine is limited. For this purpose, numerous scientific evidence has indicated procalcitonin as a marker linked to sepsis and its evolution. This review aims to retrace the main evidence relating to the use of procalcitonin in sepsis. We analyzed the primary studies in the literature and the existing meta-analysis evaluating the behavior of procalcitonin as a marker of bacterial sepsis, its prognostic power, and its ability to influence antibiotic therapy. Recent evidence has suggested that procalcitonin could be an efficient marker for diagnosing sepsis and its therapeutic management in many types of patients. The choice of the appropriate timing to initiate and suspend antibiotic therapy, with obvious clinical advantages, the favorable effects could also include reducing health costs, both avoiding the administration of inappropriate antibiotic therapies, and reducing the duration of hospitalization. Moreover, limited studies reported high procalcitonin levels in coronavirus disease 2019 patients with a worse prognosis. Despite the considerable evidence in favor of the potential of procalcitonin as an index for managing septic patients, there are conflicting data that deserve specific and detailed studies.

Should serial monitoring of procalcitonin be done routinely in critically ill patients of ICU: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition with dysregulated host response to infection. It is a major determinant of mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU). Procalcitonin (PCT) is widely investigated for prognosis in patients with sepsis. Most of the studies have cited that elevated PCT concentrations and PCT non-clearance are associated with poor outcomes in patients with sepsis and some studies have cited as having no additional benefit. Most of the studies have evaluated single PCT measurement and correlated with prognosis and outcome in septic patients. Limited literature is there about serial PCT levels and its impact on the outcome of patients with sepsis. We searched literature through PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge, and the Cochrane Library from 2007 to 2017 and present a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the utility of serial measurement of PCT for prognosis in critically ill patients. Articles that assessed PCT non-clearance as a marker of mortality data were included. The primary objective of this meta-analysis was to pool the results of all the available studies on serial PCT non-clearance as a mortality predictor and formulate overall area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). To find out the overall proportion of mortality in PCT non-clearance was our secondary objective. To detect the mortality using PCT non-clearance, ROC curve analysis was done. Area under curve (AUC) of the studies was varying between 0.52 and 0.86. Overall AUC was observed 0.711 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.662–0.760) under fixed effect model and 0.708 (95% CI: 0.648–0.769) under random effect model. There was moderate variation among the studies, i.e., I² 50.80% (95% CI: 0.00–80.42%). The overall proportion of mortality was 37.54% with much heterogeneity (I² 88.24%) among the studies. PCT non-clearance is a fair predictor of mortality. Further studies are needed to define optimal cut off point for PCT non-clearance in ICU patients with sepsis.

Performance of the MEDS score in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To carry out a meta-analysis to examine the prognostic performance of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection.

METHODS

Electronic databases-PubMed, Embase, Scopus, EBSCO and the Cochrane Library-were searched for eligible articles from their respective inception through February 2019. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and receiver operator characteristic area under the curve were calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore the prognostic performance of MEDS in selected populations.

RESULTS

We identified 24 studies involving 21 246 participants. The pooled sensitivity of MEDS to predict mortality was 79% (95% CI 72% to 84%); specificity was 74% (95% CI 68% to 80%); positive likelihood ratio 3.07 (95% CI 2.47 to 3.82); negative likelihood ratio 0.29 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.37) and area under the curve 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.86). Significant heterogeneity was seen among included studies. Meta-regression analyses showed that the time at which the MEDS score was measured and the cut-off value used were important sources of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

The MEDS score has moderate accuracy in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection. A study comparison MEDS and qSOFA in the same population is needed.

The role of biomarkers of endothelial activation in predicting morbidity and mortality in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock in intensive care: A prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

Endothelial dysfunction plays an essential role in the pathogenesis of sepsis. The study aimed to illustrate the associations between the dynamic change (from day 1 to day 7) in biomarker concentration of endothelial dysfunction and outcomes in severe sepsis and septic shock in the intensive care unit (ICU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied 102 patients enrolled in the Beijing Chao-yang Hospital affiliated with the Capital Medical University. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the prognostic values of the circulating adhesion Angiopoietin-2/Angiopoietin-1 ratio (Ang-2/Ang-1) and Angiopoietin-1/Tie-2 ratio (Ang-1/Tie-2), intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1 and thrombomodulin (TM). Spearman's rank correlation and a multiple regression analysis were used to assess the relationship between the change in sequential organ failure assessment (Δ SOFA) score (SOFA score at day 7 minus SOFA score at day 1) and the levels of Δ Ang-2/Ang-1 and Δ Ang-1/Tie-2 ratios, ΔsICAM-1, ΔsVCAM-1 and Δ sTM.

RESULTS

The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio, sICAM-1, sVCAM-1 and sTM levels significantly increased from day 1 to day 7 (all p = 0.045), and the Ang-1/Tie-2 ratio level markedly decreased from day 1 and day 7 (p = 0.027) in non-survivors. The biomarkers at Days 1 and 7 had significant prognostic value for 90-day mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock in ICU. The difference in biomarkers for endothelial dysfunction were suggested to be effective, independent predictors of changes in Δ SOFA.

CONCLUSIONS

Endothelial dysfunction may constitute an independent contributor to sepsis-associated outcomes in ICU.

Quantitative measurement of selected protein biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction in plasma by micro-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry based on stable isotope dilution method

The aim of this study was to develop and validate the novel microLC/MS-MRM method for the simultaneous quantification of six proteins: angiopoietin 2 (Angpt-2), soluble form of fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFLT-1), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA), endocan (ESM-1), soluble form of E-selectin (sE-sel), and one peptide: adrenomedullin (ADM) in mouse plasma. Two approaches were compared: a stable isotope dilution (SID) method- used as a reference and a modified SID (mSID) procedure. In SID strategy the calibration curves were used, whereas in mSID the ratio between the chromatogram peak area of endogenous tryptic peptides at unknown concentration to chromatogram peak area of exogenous, stable isotope-labelled internal standards (SISs) added to the sample at known concentration was calculated. The microLC/MS-MRM method in the SID approach was linear from 0.250 pmol/mL to 250 pmol/mL for Angpt-2; 5 pmol/mL to 5000 pmol/mL for sFLT-1; 2.5 pmol/mL to 5000 pmol/mL for PAI-1; 0.375 pmol/mL to 250 pmol/mL for t-PA; 0.375 pmol/mL to 187.5 pmol/mL for ESM-1; 2.5 pmol/mL to 5000 pmol/mL for sE-sel and 0.375 pmol/mL to 250 pmol/mL for ADM. LPS-induced changes in plasma assessed based on SID and mSID approaches gave comparable quantitative results and featured LPS-induced dysregulation of endothelial permeability (Angpt-2, sFLT-1), glycocalyx injury (SDC-1) accompanied by a pro-thrombotic response (PAI-1). In addition, we applied microLC/MS-MRM method with mSID strategy to analyze human plasma samples from patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) and demonstrated usefulness of the method to characterize endothelial function in humans. In conclusion, the microLC/MS-MRM method with mSID strategy applied for simultaneous quantification of protein biomarkers of endothelial function in plasma represents a novel targeted proteomic platform for the comprehensive evaluation of endothelial function in mice and humans.

Severity Scores in Emergency Department Patients With Presumed Infection: A Prospective Validation Study

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were to 1) validate a number of severity of illness scores in a large cohort of emergency department patients admitted with presumed infection and 2) compare the performance of scores in patient subgroups with increasing mortality: infection without systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational study.

SETTING

Adult emergency department in a metropolitan tertiary, university-affiliated hospital.

PATIENTS

Emergency department patients admitted with presumed infection.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

METHODS

Consecutive emergency department patients admitted with presumed infection were identified over 160 weeks in two periods between 2007 and 2011. Clinical and laboratory data sufficient to calculate Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and the Severe Sepsis Score were entered into a database. Model discrimination was quantified using area under the receiver operating curve. Calibration was assessed using visual plots, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, and linear regressions of observed and predicted values.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 8,871 patients were enrolled with 30-day mortality of 3.7%. Area under the receiver operating curve values for the entire cohort were: Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score of 0.92, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores of 0.90, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of 0.86, and Severe Sepsis Score of 0.82. Discrimination decreased in subgroups with greater mortality for each score. All scores overestimated mortality, but closest concordance between predicted and observed mortality was seen with Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score.

CONCLUSIONS

The decrease in area under the receiver operating curve seen in subgroups with increasing mortality may explain some variation in results seen in previous validation studies. Scores developed in intensive care settings overestimated mortality in the emergency department. Our results underscore the importance of employing predictive models developed in similar patient populations. The Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score outperformed more complex predictive models and would be the most appropriate scoring system for use in similar emergency department populations with a wide spectrum of mortality risk.

Prognostic value of PCT in septic emergency patients

Background

An accurate assessment of septic patients at risk for poor clinical outcomes is challenging for clinicians in the emergency department (ED).

Objectives

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT) in septic patients in the ED for predicting death.

Results

In a retrospective study, 188 septic patients (median age 63 [IQR 51–80]) of two French university hospitals were included. Patients who deceased within 30 days (20 %, n = 37) presented higher PCT value at admission (median 34.0 µg/L [5.0–71.9]) in comparison with the survivals (median 6.4 µg/L [4.1–13.1], p = 0.0005). ROC curve analysis indicated a moderate AUC of 0.686 [95 % CI 0.613–0.752] and an optimal PCT threshold value at 32.5 [95 % CI 21.8–43.3] µg/L that was associated with a 51 % [34–67] sensitivity, a 96 % [90–98] specificity, a 73 % [52–88] positive predictive value, and a 89 % [83–93] negative predictive value for death. Only 26 patients (14 %) had PCT values above this threshold (19 in the deceased group vs 7 in survival group, p < 0.0001). By multivariate analysis, only three variables remained significantly predictive of the death: personal history of cardiovascular disease (OR 3.1 [1.0–9.4], p = 0.046), the presence of severe sepsis/septic shock in the ER (OR 4.4 [1.3–12.3], p = 0.013), and a PCT level >32.5 µg/L (OR 36.0 [10.0–128.4], p < 0.0001). Similar results were obtained when considering the combined outcome death and/or admission in ICU.

Conclusion

Elevated value of PCT at admission has moderate accuracy to identify poor outcome in ED septic patients in daily practice.

Prognostic Value of Procalcitonin in Adult Patients with Sepsis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Procalcitonin (PCT) has been widely investigated for its prognostic value in septic patients. However, studies have produced conflicting results. The purpose of the present meta-analysis is to explore the diagnostic accuracy of a single PCT concentration and PCT non-clearance in predicting all-cause sepsis mortality. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge and the Cochrane Library. Articles written in English were included. A 2 × 2 contingency table was constructed based on all-cause mortality and PCT level or PCT non-clearance in septic patients. Two authors independently evaluated study eligibility and extracted data. The diagnostic value of PCT in predicting prognosis was determined using a bivariate meta-analysis model. We used the Q-test and I² index to test heterogeneity. Twenty-three studies with 3,994 patients were included. An elevated PCT level was associated with a higher risk of death. The pooled relative risk (RR) was 2.60 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.05–3.30) using a random-effects model (I² = 63.5%). The overall area under the summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curve was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73–0.80), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67–0.82) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52–0.74), respectively. There was significant evidence of heterogeneity for the PCT testing time (P = 0.020). Initial PCT values were of limited prognostic value in patients with sepsis. PCT non-clearance was a prognostic factor of death in patients with sepsis. The pooled RR was 3.05 (95% CI, 2.35–3.95) using a fixed-effects model (I² = 37.9%). The overall area under the SROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75–0.83), with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.58–0.82) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.55–0.90), respectively. Elevated PCT concentrations and PCT non-clearance are strongly associated with all-cause mortality in septic patients. Further studies are needed to define the optimal cut-off point and the optimal definition of PCT non-clearance for accurate risk assessment.

Arterial lactate improves the prognostic performance of severity score systems in septic patients in the ED

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic performance of lactate in septic patients in the emergency department (ED) and investigate how to add lactate to the traditional score systems.

METHODS

This was a single-centered, prospective, observational cohort study conducted in ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital. The study enrolled adult septic patients admitted to the ED. Arterial lactate was measured in every patient. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scores were calculated on ED arrival. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

The average levels of lactate, MEDS, APACHE II, and SOFA were much higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (P < .001), and they were the independent predictors of 28-day mortality. Area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves of MEDS, APACHE II, SOFA, and lactate were 0.74, 0.74, 0.75, and 0.79, respectively. The AUCs of combination lactate and MEDS, APACHE II, and SOFA were 0.81, 0.81, and 0.82, respectively and were much higher than that of score systems alone (P < .05). The AUCs of modified MEDS, APACHE II, and SOFA were 0.80, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively. The prognostic value of the modified score systems was superior to the original score systems and similar to the combination of the lactate and original score systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Lactate is a prognostic predictor in septic patients in the ED, and it may improve the performance of APACHE II, SOFA, and MEDS scores in predicting mortality.