Respectful Modeling: Addressing Uncertainty in Dynamic System Models for Molecular Biology

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for anaerobic digestion models

Uncertainty quantification is critical for ensuring adequate predictive power of computational models used in biology. Focusing on two anaerobic digestion models, this article introduces a novel generalized Bayesian procedure, called VarBUQ, ensuring a correct tradeoff between flexibility and computational cost. A benchmark against three existing methods (Fisher's information, bootstrapping and Beale's criteria) was conducted using synthetic data. This Bayesian procedure offered a good compromise between fitting ability and confidence estimation, while the other methods proved to be repeatedly overconfident. The method's performances notably benefitted from inductive bias brought by the prior distribution, although it requires careful construction. This article advocates for more systematic consideration of uncertainty for anaerobic digestion models and showcases a new, computationally efficient Bayesian method. To facilitate future implementations, a Python package called 'aduq' is made available.

Synthetic biology approaches to actinomycete strain improvement

Their biochemical versatility and biotechnological importance make actinomycete bacteria attractive targets for ambitious genetic engineering using the toolkit of synthetic biology. But their complex biology also poses unique challenges. This mini review discusses some of the recent advances in synthetic biology approaches from an actinomycete perspective and presents examples of their application to the rational improvement of industrially relevant strains.

Searching for Errors in Models of Complex Dynamic Systems

Mathematical modeling is seen as a key step to understand, predict, and control the temporal dynamics of interacting systems in such diverse areas like physics, biology, medicine, and economics. However, for large and complex systems we usually have only partial knowledge about the network, the coupling functions, and the interactions with the environment governing the dynamic behavior. This incomplete knowledge induces structural model errors which can in turn be the cause of erroneous model predictions or misguided interpretations. Uncovering the location of such structural model errors in large networks can be a daunting task for a modeler. Here, we present a data driven method to search for structural model errors and to confine their position in large and complex dynamic networks. We introduce a coherence measure for pairs of network nodes, which indicates, how difficult it is to distinguish these nodes as sources of an error. By clustering network nodes into coherence groups and inferring the cluster inputs we can decide, which cluster is affected by an error. We demonstrate the utility of our method for the C. elegans neural network, for a signal transduction model for UV-B light induced morphogenesis and for synthetic examples.

Architectures for Combined Transcriptional and Translational Resource Allocation Controllers

Recent work on engineering synthetic cellular circuitry has shown that non-regulatory interactions mediated by competition for gene expression resources can result in degraded performance or even failure. Transcriptional and translational resource allocation controllers based on orthogonal circuit-specific gene expression machinery have separately been shown to improve modularity and circuit performance. Here, we investigate the potential advantages, challenges, and design trade-offs involved in combining transcriptional and translational controllers into a "dual resource allocation control system." We show that separately functional, translational, and transcriptional controllers cannot generally be combined without extensive redesign. We analyze candidate architectures for direct design of dual resource allocation controllers and propose modifications to improve their performance (in terms of decoupling and expression level) and robustness. We show that dual controllers can be built that are composed only of orthogonal gene expression resources and demonstrate that such designs offer both superior performance and robustness characteristics.

Strategic Outlook toward 2030: Japan's research for allergy and immunology - Secondary publication

Strategic Outlook toward 2030: Japan's Research for Allergy and Immunology (Strategy 2030) is the national research strategy based on Japan's Basic Law on Measures Against Allergic Diseases, a first of its kind worldwide. This strategy was established by a multi-disciplinary committee consisting of administrators of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, young and senior experts from various research societies and associations, and representatives of patient and public groups. Whereas the issues of transition, integration, and international collaboration have yet to be solved in this research realm in Japan, identification of unmet needs, digitization of information and transparent procedures, and strategic planning for complex problems (a process dubbed MIERUKA by the Toyota Way) are crucial to share and tackle the same vision and goals. The committee developed three specific actions focusing on preemptive treatment, interdisciplinarity and internationality, and life stage. The real success of Strategy 2030 is made by the spontaneous contributions of doctors, dentists, veterinarians, and other medical professionals; basic and clinical research scientists, research supporters, and pharmaceutical/medical device companies; manufacturers of food, healthcare, and home appliances; and patients, their families, and the public. The hope is to establish a stable society in which people can live long, healthy lives, as free as possible from allergic and immunological diseases, at each individual life stage. This article is based on a Japanese review first reported in Arerugi, introduces the developmental process and details of Strategy 2030.

Unravelling the γ-butyrolactone network in Streptomyces coelicolor by computational ensemble modelling

Antibiotic production is coordinated in the Streptomyces coelicolor population through the use of diffusible signaling molecules of the γ-butyrolactone (GBL) family. The GBL regulatory system involves a small, and not completely defined two-gene network which governs a potentially bi-stable switch between the “on” and “off” states of antibiotic production. The use of this circuit as a tool for synthetic biology has been hampered by a lack of mechanistic understanding of its functionality. We here present the creation and analysis of a versatile and adaptable ensemble model of the Streptomyces GBL system (detailed information on all model mechanisms and parameters is documented in http://www.systemsbiology.ls.manchester.ac.uk/wiki/index.php/Main_Page). We use the model to explore a range of previously proposed mechanistic hypotheses, including transcriptional interference, antisense RNA interactions between the mRNAs of the two genes, and various alternative regulatory activities. Our results suggest that transcriptional interference alone is not sufficient to explain the system’s behavior. Instead, antisense RNA interactions seem to be the system's driving force, combined with an aggressive scbR promoter. The computational model can be used to further challenge and refine our understanding of the system’s activity and guide future experimentation.

Streptomyces species are Gram-positive soil-dwelling bacteria, which are known as a prolific source of secondary metabolites, such as antibiotics. Antibiotic production is coordinated in the bacterial population through the use of diffusible signalling molecules of the γ-butyrolactone (GBL) family. The GBL regulatory system involves a small, yet complex two-gene network, the mechanism of which has not yet been completely defined. The complete elucidation of this system could potentially lead to the ability to design reliable and sensitive engineered cellular switches. We therefore designed a versatile model of the GBL system in order to investigate the feasibility of various hypothesized mechanisms. The ensemble modelling analysis that we performed revealed that antisense RNA interactions seem to be the system’s driving force, together with an aggressive scbR promoter. Transcriptional interference is also significant; however, it is not sufficient to explain the system’s behavior by itself. Finally, the model indicates key experiments, which could completely elucidate the role of the system and the interactions of its components and potentially lead to the design of reliable and sensitive systems with significant applications as orthologous regulatory circuits in synthetic biology and biotechnology.

Quantitative Mechanistic Modeling in Support of Pharmacological Therapeutics Development in Immuno-Oncology

Following the approval, in recent years, of the first immune checkpoint inhibitor, there has been an explosion in the development of immuno-modulating pharmacological modalities for the treatment of various cancers. From the discovery phase to late-stage clinical testing and regulatory approval, challenges in the development of immuno-oncology (IO) drugs are multi-fold and complex. In the preclinical setting, the multiplicity of potential drug targets around immune checkpoints, the growing list of immuno-modulatory molecular and cellular forces in the tumor microenvironment-with additional opportunities for IO drug targets, the emergence of exploratory biomarkers, and the unleashed potential of modality combinations all have necessitated the development of quantitative, mechanistically-oriented systems models which incorporate key biology and patho-physiology aspects of immuno-oncology and the pharmacokinetics of IO-modulating agents. In the clinical setting, the qualification of surrogate biomarkers predictive of IO treatment efficacy or outcome, and the corresponding optimization of IO trial design have become major challenges. This mini-review focuses on the evolution and state-of-the-art of quantitative systems models describing the tumor vs. immune system interplay, and their merging with quantitative pharmacology models of IO-modulating agents, as companion tools to support the addressing of these challenges.

Defining informative priors for ensemble modeling in systems biology

Ensemble modeling in molecular systems biology requires the reproducible translation of kinetic parameter data into informative probability distributions (priors), as well as approaches that sample parameters from these distributions without violating the thermodynamic consistency of the overall model. Although a number of pioneering frameworks for ensemble modeling have been published, the issue of generating informative priors has not yet been addressed. Here, we present a protocol that aims to fill this gap. This protocol discusses the collection of parameter values from a diverse range of sources (literature, databases and experiments), assessment of their plausibility, and creation of log-normal probability distributions that can be used as informative priors in ensemble modeling. Furthermore, the protocol enables sampling from the generated distributions while maintaining thermodynamic consistency. Once all parameter values have been retrieved from literature and databases, the protocol can be implemented within ~5-10 min per parameter. The aim of this protocol is to facilitate the design and use of informative distributions for ensemble modeling, especially in fields such as synthetic biology and systems medicine.

Complexity-aware simple modeling

Mathematical models continue to be essential for deepening our understanding of biology. On one extreme, simple or small-scale models help delineate general biological principles. However, the parsimony of detail in these models as well as their assumption of modularity and insulation make them inaccurate for describing quantitative features. On the other extreme, large-scale and detailed models can quantitatively recapitulate a phenotype of interest, but have to rely on many unknown parameters, making them often difficult to parse mechanistically and to use for extracting general principles. We discuss some examples of a new approach-complexity-aware simple modeling-that can bridge the gap between the small-scale and large-scale approaches.