Hypothesis testing in biogeography

Estimating ancestral ranges and biogeographical processes in early hominins

Historical biogeography provides crucial insights into understanding the evolutionary history of hominins. We applied maximum-likelihood and biogeographical stochastic mapping to infer the ancestral ranges of hominins and estimate the frequency of biogeographical events. These events were inferred using two time-calibrated phylogenetic trees that differ in the position of Australopithecus sediba. Results suggest that regardless of which phylogeny was selected, Northcentral Africa was the preferred ancestral region for the ancestor of the Homo-Pan clade, as well as the ancestor of Sahelanthropus and later hominins. The northern and middle part of eastern Africa was the preferred ancestral region for several clades originating at subsequent deep nodes of the trees (∼5-4 Ma). The choice of tree topology had one important effect on results: whether hominin ancestors appearing after ∼4 Ma were widespread or endemic. These different patterns highlight the biogeographic significance of the phylogenetic relationships of A. sediba. Overall, the results showed that dispersal, local extinction, and sympatry played vital roles in creating the hominin distribution, whereas vicariance and jump dispersal were not as common. The results suggested symmetry in the directionality of dispersals. Distance probably influenced how rapidly taxa colonized a new region, and dispersals often followed the closest path. These findings are potentially impacted by the imperfection of the fossil record, suggesting that the results should be interpreted cautiously.

Fossil-informed biogeographic analysis suggests Eurasian regionalization in crown Squamata during the early Jurassic

Background

Squamata (lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians) is a Triassic lineage with an extensive and complex biogeographic history, yet no large-scale study has reconstructed the ancestral range of early squamate lineages. The fossil record indicates a broadly Pangaean distribution by the end- Cretaceous, though many lineages (e.g., Paramacellodidae, Mosasauria, Polyglyphanodontia) subsequently went extinct. Thus, the origin and occupancy of extant radiations is unclear and may have been localized within Pangaea to specific plates, with potential regionalization to distinct Laurasian and Gondwanan landmasses during the Mesozoic in some groups.

Methods

We used recent tectonic models to code extant and fossil squamate distributions occurring on nine discrete plates for 9,755 species, with Jurassic and Cretaceous fossil constraints from three extinct lineages. We modeled ancestral ranges for crown Squamata from an extant-only molecular phylogeny using a suite of biogeographic models accommodating different evolutionary processes and fossil-based node constraints from known Jurassic and Cretaceous localities. We hypothesized that the best-fit models would not support a full Pangaean distribution (i.e., including all areas) for the origin of crown Squamata, but would instead show regionalization to specific areas within the fragmenting supercontinent, likely in the Northern Hemisphere where most early squamate fossils have been found.

Results

Incorporating fossil data reconstructs a localized origin within Pangaea, with early regionalization of extant lineages to Eurasia and Laurasia, while Gondwanan regionalization did not occur until the middle Cretaceous for Alethinophidia, Scolecophidia, and some crown Gekkotan lineages. While the Mesozoic history of extant squamate biogeography can be summarized as a Eurasian origin with dispersal out of Laurasia into Gondwana, their Cenozoic history is complex with multiple events (including secondary and tertiary recolonizations) in several directions. As noted by previous authors, squamates have likely utilized over-land range expansion, land-bridge colonization, and trans-oceanic dispersal. Tropical Gondwana and Eurasia hold more ancient lineages than the Holarctic (Rhineuridae being a major exception), and some asymmetries in colonization (e.g., to North America from Eurasia during the Cenozoic through Beringia) deserve additional study. Future studies that incorporate fossil branches, rather than as node constraints, into the reconstruction can be used to explore this history further.

Fossil-calibrated phylogenies of Southern cave wētā show dispersal and extinction confound biogeographic signal

The biota of continents and islands are commonly considered to have a source-sink relationship, but small islands can harbour distinctive taxa. The distribution of four monotypic genera of Orthoptera on young subantarctic islands indicates a role for long-distance dispersal and extinction. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred from whole mtDNA genomes and nuclear sequences (45S cassette; four histones). We used a fossil and one palaeogeographic event to calibrate molecular clock analysis. We confirm that neither the Australian nor Aotearoa-New Zealand Rhaphidophoridae faunas are monophyletic. The radiation of Macropathinae may have begun in the late Jurassic, but trans-oceanic dispersal is required to explain the current distribution of some lineages within this subfamily. Dating the most recent common ancestor of seven island endemic species with their nearest mainland relative suggests that each existed long before their island home was available. Time estimates from our fossil-calibrated molecular clock analysis suggest several lineages have not been detected on mainland New Zealand, Australia, or elsewhere most probably due to their extinction, providing evidence that patterns of extinction, which are not consistently linked to range size or lineage age, confound biogeographic signal.

On the nature of evolutionary explanations: a critical appraisal of Walter Bock's approach with a new revised proposal

Walter Bock was committed to developing a framework for evolutionary biology. Bock repeatedly discussed how evolutionary explanations should be considered within the realm of Hempel's deductive-nomological model of scientific explanations. Explanation in evolution would then consist of functional and evolutionary explanations, and within the latter, an explanation can be of nomological-deductive and historical narrative explanations. Thus, a complete evolutionary explanation should include, first, a deductive functional analysis, and then proceed through nomological and historical evolutionary explanations. However, I will argue that his views on the deductive proprieties of functional analysis and the deductive-nomological parts of evolution fail because of the nature of evolution, which contains a historical element that the logic of deduction and Hempel's converting law model do not compass. Conversely, Bock's historical approach gives a critical consideration of the historical narrative element of evolutionary explanation, which is fundamental to the methodology of the historical nature of evolutionary theory. Herein, I will expand and discuss a modern view of evolutionary explanations of traits that includes the currentacknowledgement of the differences between experimental and the historical sciences, including the token and type event dichotomy, that mutually illuminate each other in order to give us a well confirmed and coherent hypothesis for evolutionary explanations. Within this framework, I will argue that the duality of evolutionary explanations is related to two components of character evolution: origin, with its evolutionary pathways along with the history, and maintenance, the function (mainly a current function) for the character being selected.

Reconciling fossils with phylogenies reveals the origin and macroevolutionary processes explaining the global cycad biodiversity

The determinants of biodiversity patterns can be understood using macroevolutionary analyses. The integration of fossils into phylogenies offers a deeper understanding of processes underlying biodiversity patterns in deep time. Cycadales are considered a relict of a once more diverse and globally distributed group but are restricted to low latitudes today. We still know little about their origin and geographic range evolution. Combining molecular data for extant species and leaf morphological data for extant and fossil species, we study the origin of cycad global biodiversity patterns through Bayesian total-evidence dating analyses. We assess the ancestral geographic origin and trace the historical biogeography of cycads with a time-stratified process-based model. Cycads originated in the Carboniferous on the Laurasian landmass and expanded in Gondwana in the Jurassic. Through now-vanished continental connections, Antarctica and Greenland were crucial biogeographic crossroads for cycad biogeography. Vicariance is an essential speciation mode in the deep and recent past. Their latitudinal span increased in the Jurassic and restrained toward subtropical latitudes in the Neogene in line with biogeographic inferences of high-latitude extirpations. We show the benefits of integrating fossils into phylogenies to estimate ancestral areas of origin and to study evolutionary processes explaining the global distribution of present-day relict groups.

Body size and life history shape the historical biogeography of tetrapods

Dispersal across biogeographic barriers is a key process determining global patterns of biodiversity as it allows lineages to colonize and diversify in new realms. Here we demonstrate that past biogeographic dispersal events often depended on species' traits, by analysing 7,009 tetrapod species in 56 clades. Biogeographic models incorporating body size or life history accrued more statistical support than trait-independent models in 91% of clades. In these clades, dispersal rates increased by 28-32% for lineages with traits favouring successful biogeographic dispersal. Differences between clades in the effect magnitude of life history on dispersal rates are linked to the strength and type of biogeographic barriers and intra-clade trait variability. In many cases, large body sizes and fast life histories facilitate dispersal success. However, species with small bodies and/or slow life histories, or those with average traits, have an advantage in a minority of clades. Body size-dispersal relationships were related to a clade's average body size and life history strategy. These results provide important new insight into how traits have shaped the historical biogeography of tetrapod lineages and may impact present-day and future biogeographic dispersal.

Megafaunal extinctions, not climate change, may explain Holocene genetic diversity declines in Numenius shorebirds

Understanding the relative contributions of historical and anthropogenic factors to declines in genetic diversity is important for informing conservation action. Using genome-wide DNA of fresh and historic specimens, including that of two species widely thought to be extinct, we investigated fluctuations in genetic diversity and present the first complete phylogenomic tree for all nine species of the threatened shorebird genus Numenius, known as whimbrels and curlews. Most species faced sharp declines in effective population size, a proxy for genetic diversity, soon after the Last Glacial Maximum (around 20,000 years ago). These declines occurred prior to the Anthropocene and in spite of an increase in the breeding area predicted by environmental niche modeling, suggesting that they were not caused by climatic or recent anthropogenic factors. Crucially, these genetic diversity declines coincide with mass extinctions of mammalian megafauna in the Northern Hemisphere. Among other factors, the demise of ecosystem-engineering megafauna which maintained open habitats may have been detrimental for grassland and tundra-breeding Numenius shorebirds. Our work suggests that the impact of historical factors such as megafaunal extinction may have had wider repercussions on present-day population dynamics of open habitat biota than previously appreciated.

Wind-dispersed seeds blur phylogeographic breaks: The complex evolutionary history of Populus lasiocarpa around the Sichuan Basin

The strength of phylogeographic breaks can vary among species in the same area despite being subject to the same geological and climate history due to differences in biological traits. Several important phylogeographic breaks exist around the Sichuan Basin in Southwest China but few studies have focused on wind-dispersed plants. Here, we investigated the phylogeographic patterns and the evolutionary history of Populus lasiocarpa, a wind-pollinated and wind-dispersed tree species with a circum-Sichuan Basin distribution in southwest China. We sequenced and analyzed three plastid DNA fragments (ptDNA) and eight nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) of 265 individuals of P. lasiocarpa from 21 populations spanning the entire distribution range. Distribution patterns based on nSSR data revealed that there are three genetic groups in P. lasiocarpa. This is consistent with the three phylogeographic breaks (Sichuan Basin, the Kaiyong Line and the 105°E line), where the Sichuan basin acts as the main barrier to gene flow between western and eastern groups. However, the distribution pattern based on ptDNA haplotypes poorly matched the phylogeographic breaks, and wind-dispersed seeds may be one of the main contributing factors. Species distribution modelling suggested a larger potential distribution in the last glacial maximum with a severe bottleneck during the last interglacial. A DIYABC model also suggested a population contraction and expansion for both western and eastern lineages. These results indicate that biological traits are likely to affect the evolutionary history of plants, and that nuclear molecular markers, which experience higher levels of gene flow, might be better indicators of phylogeographic breaks.

Survivors and colonizers: Contrasting biogeographic histories reconciled in the Antarctic freshwater copepod Boeckella poppei

Two main hypotheses have been proposed to explain the contemporary distribution of Antarctic terrestrial biota. We assess whether the current distribution of maritime Antarctic populations of the freshwater copepod Boeckella poppei is the result of (1) a post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) colonization, or whether (2) the species survived in regional glacial refugia throughout the LGM and earlier glaciations. Using 438 specimens from 34 different sampling sites across Southern South America, South Georgia, South Orkney Islands, South Shetland Islands, and the Antarctic Peninsula, we analyzed mitochondrial and nuclear sequences to uncover patterns of genetic diversity and population structure. We also performed median-joining haplotype network, phylogenetic reconstruction, and divergence time analyses. Finally, we evaluated past demographic changes and historical scenarios using the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method. Our data support the existence of two clades with different and contrasting biogeographic histories. The first clade has been present in maritime Antarctica since at least the mid-Pleistocene, with the South Orkney Islands the most likely refugial area. The second clade has a broader distribution including southern South America, South Georgia, South Shetland Islands, and the Antarctic Peninsula. The ABC method identified long-distance dispersal (LDD) colonization event(s) from southern South America to South Georgia and the maritime Antarctic after the LGM deglaciation, supporting more recent colonization of Antarctic locations. The current Antarctic and sub-Antarctic distribution of B. poppei is likely derived from two independent biogeographic events. The combination of both (1) post-LGM colonization from southern South America and (2) longer-term persistence in in situ regional refugia throughout glacial periods challenges current understanding of the biogeographic history of Antarctic freshwater biota. Re-colonization of ice-impacted Antarctic areas would have occurred following a LDD and Establishment model, pointing to the existence of possible post-dispersal barriers, despite widely assumed high passive dispersal capacity in freshwater invertebrates.

The evolutionary history and ancestral biogeographic range estimation of old-world Rhinolophidae and Hipposideridae (Chiroptera)

BACKGROUND

Family Rhinolophidae (horseshoe bats), Hipposideridae (leaf-nosed bats) and Rhinonycteridae (trident bats) are exclusively distributed in the Old-World, and their biogeography reflects the complex historic geological events throughout the Cenozoic. Here we investigated the origin of these families and unravel the conflicting family origin theories using a high resolution tree covering taxa from each zoogeographic realm from Africa to Australia. Ancestral range estimations were performed using a probabilistic approach implemented in BioGeoBEARS with subset analysis per biogeographic range [Old-World as whole, Australia-Oriental-Oceania (AOO) and Afrotropical-Madagascar-Palearctic (AMP)].

RESULT

Our result supports an Oriental origin for Rhinolophidae, whereas Hipposideridae originated from the Oriental and African regions in concordance with fossil evidence of both families. The fossil evidence indicates that Hipposideridae has diversified across Eurasia and the Afro-Arabian region since the Middle Eocene. Meanwhile, Rhinonycteridae (the sister family of Hipposideridae) appears to have originated from the Africa region splitting from the common ancestor with Hipposideridae in Africa. Indomalaya is the center of origin of Rhinolophidae AOO lineages, and Indomalayan + Philippines appears to be center of origin of Hipposideridae AOO lineage indicating allopatric speciation and may have involved jump-dispersal (founder-event) speciation within AOO lineage. Wallacea and the Philippines may have been used as stepping stones for dispersal towards Oceania and Australia from the Oriental region. Multiple colonization events via different routes may have occurred in the Philippines (i.e., Palawan and Wallacea) since the Late Miocene. The colonization of Rhinolophidae towards Africa from Asia coincided with the estimated time of Tethys Ocean closure around the Oligocene to Miocene (around 27 Ma), allowing species to disperse via the Arabian Peninsula. Additionally, the number of potential cryptic species in Rhinolophidae in Southeast Asia may have increased since Plio-Pleistocene and late Miocene.

CONCLUSION

Overall, we conclude an Oriental origin for Rhinolophidae, and Oriental + African for Hipposideridae. The result demonstrates that complex historical events, in addition to species specific ecomorphology and specialization of ecological niches may shape current distributions.

Phylogenetic inference of where species spread or split across barriers

SignificanceGeography molds how species evolve in space. Strong geographical barriers to movement, for instance, both inhibit dispersal between regions and allow isolated populations to diverge as new species. Weak barriers, by contrast, permit species range expansion and persistence. These factors present a conundrum: How strong must a barrier be before between-region speciation outpaces dispersal? We designed a phylogenetic model of dispersal, extinction, and speciation that allows regional features to influence rates of biogeographic change and applied it to the neotropical radiation of Anolis lizards. Separation by water induces a threefold steeper barrier to movement than equivalent distances over land. Our model will help biologists detect relationships between evolutionary processes and the spatial contexts in which they operate.

Phylogeny of Merlin's grass (Isoetaceae): revealing an "Amborella syndrome" and the importance of geographic distribution for understanding current and historical diversity

Background

Merlin’s grass (Isoetes, Isoetaceae, Lycopsida), is the extant remnant of the isoetalean wood-producing lycopsids that originated during the Paleozoic, possibly in aquatic or boggy habitats. Modern day species are aquatic, semi-aquatic or terrestrial and occur almost worldwide. They display little morphological variation; the lobed corm has helically arranged leaves with internal air channels and basal sporangia. Genetic variation has also proven limited, which has hampered phylogenetic inference. We investigate evolutionary relationships in Isoetes, using molecular data and an extended sample of species compared to previous work, adding species that have never before been included in a phylogenetic study.

Results

Our results reveal an unexpected discovery of an “Amborella syndrome” in Isoetaceae: a single poorly known species is sister to the remaining family. The species, Isoetes wormaldii, is a rare endemic to the Eastern Cape of South Africa. Its leaves are flattened with a rounded point, which sharply contrasts with the awl-shaped leaves of most other species of Isoetes. The remaining species of Isoetes are resolved in five major clades, also indicated in previous work. While the phylogeny shows geographic structure, the patterns are complex. For example, tropical-southern African species occur in at least five clades, and Indian, Australian and Mediterranean species in at least three clades each.

Conclusion

The evolutionary and biogeographical history of Isoetes is not easily explained, and may conceivably include ample extinction and a mixture of ancient and more recent processes. Previously shown difficulties with node age estimation increase the problem. The here demonstrated sister-relationship between the phylogenetically, morphologically and genetically distinct Isoetes wormaldii and the remaining family appears to bridge the morphological gap between Isoetes and its extinct relatives, although further studies are needed. Moreover, it shortens the branch length to its living sister genus Selaginella, and may enhance node age estimation in future studies. Isoetes wormaldii is critically endangered, known only from one (to a few) minor populations. Immediate actions need to be taken if we want to prevent this unique species from going extinct.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-01988-w.

Evolutionary Genetics of Cacti: Research Biases, Advances and Prospects

Here, we present a review of the studies of evolutionary genetics (phylogenetics, population genetics, and phylogeography) using genetic data as well as genome scale assemblies in Cactaceae (Caryophyllales, Angiosperms), a major lineage of succulent plants with astonishing diversity on the American continent. To this end, we performed a literature survey (1992–2021) to obtain detailed information regarding key aspects of studies investigating cactus evolution. Specifically, we summarize the advances in the following aspects: molecular markers, species delimitation, phylogenetics, hybridization, biogeography, and genome assemblies. In brief, we observed substantial growth in the studies conducted with molecular markers in the past two decades. However, we found biases in taxonomic/geographic sampling and the use of traditional markers and statistical approaches. We discuss some methodological and social challenges for engaging the cactus community in genomic research. We also stressed the importance of integrative approaches, coalescent methods, and international collaboration to advance the understanding of cactus evolution.

Ecological changes have driven biotic exchanges across the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean has a complex geological history that has drawn the attention of naturalists for almost a century now. Due to its tectonic history, many geological elements and processes have been evoked to explain the exchange of species between landmasses. Here, we revisited previous studies on twenty-three taxa to investigate trends across time since the Gondwana breakup. We investigated these datasets by applying a time-calibrated Bayesian framework to them and reconstructing their ancestral ranges. We conclude that ecological transformations have presented opportunities for the establishment of migrants. The role of donating and receiving migrants has shifted several times according to these transformations. Time-specific trends show weak evidence for the stepping-stones commonly suggested as physical routes between landmasses. However, before its collision with Asia, India may have served as an intermediary for such exchanges.

Phytogeographic history of the Tea family inferred through high-resolution phylogeny and fossils

The tea family (Theaceae) has a highly unusual amphi-Pacific disjunct distribution: most extant species in the family are restricted to subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests in East Asia, while a handful of species occur exclusively in the subtropical and tropical Americas. Here we used an approach that integrates the rich fossil evidence of this group with phylogenies in biogeographic analysis to study the processes behind this distribution pattern. We first combined genome-skimming sequencing with existing molecular data to build a robust species-level phylogeny for c.140 Theaceae species, resolving most important unclarified relationships. We then developed an empirical Bayesian method to incorporate distribution evidence from fossil specimens into historical biogeographic analyses and used this method to account for the spatiotemporal history of Theaceae fossils. We compared our method with an alternative Bayesian approach and show that it provides consistent results while significantly reduces computational demands which allows analyses of much larger datasets. Our analyses revealed a circumboreal distribution of the family from the early Cenozoic to the Miocene and inferred repeated expansions and retractions of the modelled distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the current Theaceae distribution could be the remnant of a larger continuous distribution associated with the boreotropical forest that has been hypothesized to occupy most of the northern latitudes in the early Cenozoic. These results contradict with studies that only considered current species distributions and showcase the necessity of integrating fossil and molecular data in phylogeny-based parametric biogeographic models to improve the reliability of inferred biogeographical events.

When are hypotheses useful in ecology and evolution?

Research hypotheses have been a cornerstone of science since before Galileo. Many have argued that hypotheses (1) encourage discovery of mechanisms, and (2) reduce bias-both features that should increase transferability and reproducibility. However, we are entering a new era of big data and highly predictive models where some argue the hypothesis is outmoded. We hypothesized that hypothesis use has declined in ecology and evolution since the 1990s, given the substantial advancement of tools further facilitating descriptive, correlative research. Alternatively, hypothesis use may have become more frequent due to the strong recommendation by some journals and funding agencies that submissions have hypothesis statements. Using a detailed literature analysis (N = 268 articles), we found prevalence of hypotheses in eco-evo research is very low (6.7%-26%) and static from 1990-2015, a pattern mirrored in an extensive literature search (N = 302,558 articles). Our literature review also indicates that neither grant success nor citation rates were related to the inclusion of hypotheses, which may provide disincentive for hypothesis formulation. Here, we review common justifications for avoiding hypotheses and present new arguments based on benefits to the individual researcher. We argue that stating multiple alternative hypotheses increases research clarity and precision, and is more likely to address the mechanisms for observed patterns in nature. Although hypotheses are not always necessary, we expect their continued and increased use will help our fields move toward greater understanding, reproducibility, prediction, and effective conservation of nature.

Biogeography of the monocotyledon astelioid clade (Asparagales): A history of long-distance dispersal and diversification with emerging habitats

The astelioid families (Asteliaceae, Blandfordiaceae, Boryaceae, Hypoxidaceae, and Lanariaceae) have centers of diversity in Australasia and temperate Africa, with secondary centers of diversity in Afromontane Africa, Asia, and Pacific Islands. The global distribution of these families makes this an excellent lineage to test if current distribution patterns are the result of vicariance or long-distance dispersal and to evaluate the roles of Tertiary climatic and geological drivers in lineage diversification. Sequence data were generated from five chloroplast regions (petL-psbE, rbcL, rps16-trnK, trnL-trnLF, trnS-trnSG) for 104 ingroup species sampled across global diversity. The astelioid phylogeny was inferred using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference methods. Divergence dates were estimated with a relaxed clock applied in BEAST. Ancestral ranges were reconstructed in the R package 'BioGeoBEARS' applying the corrected Akaike information criterion to test for the best-fit biogeographic model. Diversification rates were estimated in Bayesian Analysis of Macroevolutionary Mixtures (BAMM). Astelioid relationships were inferred as Boryaceae(Blandfordiaceae(Asteliaceae(Hypoxidaceae plus Lanariaceae))). The crown astelioid node was dated to the Late Cretaceous (75.2 million years; 95% highest posterior density interval 61.0-90.0 million years) and an Antarctic-Australasian origin was inferred. Astelioid speciation events have not been shaped by Gondwanan vicariance. Rather long-distance dispersal since the Eocene is inferred to account for current distributions. Crown Asteliaceae and Boryaceae have Australian ancestral ranges and diversified since the Eocene. In Hypoxidaceae, Empodium, Hypoxis, and Pauridia have African ancestral ranges, while Curculigo and Molineria have an Asian ancestral range. Diversification of Pauridia and the Curculigo clade occurred steadily, while diversification of Astelia and Hypoxis was punctuated over time. Diversification of Hypoxis and Astelia coincided temporally with the expansion of the habitat types occupied by extant taxa, e.g., grassland habitat in Africa during the Late Miocene and alpine habitat in New Zealand during the Pliocene, respectively.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Multilocus phylogeny and historical biogeography of Hypostomus shed light on the processes of fish diversification in La Plata Basin

Distribution history of the widespread Neotropical genus Hypostomus was studied to shed light on the processes that shaped species diversity. We inferred a calibrated phylogeny, ancestral habitat preference, ancestral areas distribution, and the history of dispersal and vicariance events of this genus. The phylogenetic and distribution analyses indicate that Hypostomus species inhabiting La Plata Basin do not form a monophyletic clade, suggesting that several unrelated ancestral species colonized this basin in the Miocene. Dispersal to other rivers of La Plata Basin started about 8 Mya, followed by habitat shifts and an increased rate of cladogenesis. Amazonian Hypostomus species colonized La Plata Basin several times in the Middle Miocene, probably via the Upper Paraná and the Paraguay rivers that acted as dispersal corridors. During the Miocene, La Plata Basin experienced marine incursions, and geomorphological and climatic changes that reconfigured its drainage pattern, driving dispersal and diversification of Hypostomus. The Miocene marine incursion was a strong barrier and its retraction triggered Hypostomus dispersal, increased speciation rate and ecological diversification. The timing of hydrogeological changes in La Plata Basin coincides well with Hypostomus cladogenetic events, indicating that the history of this basin has acted on the diversification of its biota.

Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya

BACKGROUND

Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning.

METHODS

Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves.

RESULTS

Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax.

CONCLUSION

These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.

Global Diversification Dynamics Since the Jurassic: Low Dispersal and Habitat-Dependent Evolution Explain Hotspots of Diversity and Shell Disparity in River Snails (Viviparidae)

The Viviparidae, commonly known as River Snails, is a dominant group of freshwater snails with a nearly worldwide distribution that reaches its highest taxonomic and morphological diversity in Southeast Asia. The rich fossil record is indicative of a probable Middle Jurassic origin on the Laurasian supercontinent where the group started to diversify during the Cretaceous. However, it remains uncertain when and how the biodiversity hotspot in Southeast Asia was formed. Here, we used a comprehensive genetic data set containing both mitochondrial and nuclear markers and comprising species representing 24 out of 28 genera from throughout the range of the family. To reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of viviparids on a global scale, we reconstructed a fossil-calibrated phylogeny. We further assessed the roles of cladogenetic and anagenetic events in range evolution. Finally, we reconstructed the evolution of shell features by estimating ancestral character states to assess whether the appearance of sculptured shell morphologies was driven by major habitat shifts. The molecular phylogeny supports the monophyly of the three subfamilies, the Bellamyinae, Lioplacinae, and Viviparinae, but challenges the currently accepted genus-level classification in several cases. The almost global distribution of River Snails has been influenced both by comparatively ancient vicariance and more recent founder events. In Southeast Asia, Miocene dispersal was a main factor in shaping the modern species distributions. A recurrent theme across different viviparid taxa is that many species living in lentic waters exhibit sculptured shells, whereas only one strongly sculptured species is known from lotic environments. We show that such shell sculpture is habitat-dependent and indeed evolved several times independently in lentic River Snails. Considerably high transition rates between shell types in lentic habitats probably caused the co-occurrence of morphologically distinct shell types in several lakes. In contrast, directional evolution toward smooth shells in lotic habitats, as identified in the present analyses, explains why sculptured shells are rarely found in these habitats. However, the specific factors that promoted changes in shell morphology require further work. [biogeographical analyses; fossil-calibrated phylogeny; fossil-constrained analyses; Southeast Asia; stochastic character mapping.].

India's biogeographic history through the eyes of blindsnakes- filling the gaps in the global typhlopoid phylogeny

The Indian subcontinent's unique geological history is reflected in the diverse assemblage of its biota. The blindsnake superfamily Typhlopoidea, with its unique mix of ancient as well as younger lineages in Asia, provides an opportunity to understand the various biotic exchange scenarios proposed for the Indian landmass. In this study, we aim to understand the biogeographic origins of the four genera of typhlopoids found in India and to decipher their times and modes of arrival in the subcontinent. Five nuclear markers were sequenced for 12 samples collected from across India, encompassing all four genera under study. Published sequences of typhlopoid genera were compiled and combined with Indian sequences to generate a global dataset. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods. Divergence times were estimated using BEAST 1.8.2. Ancestral geographical ranges were estimated using DEC + J, implemented in BioGeoBEARS. Divergence time estimates suggest that Gerrhopilus is an ancient lineage, and the lineage leading to it was present on the Indian landmass since the last 100 million years. The other three genera are more recent dispersals into India, possibly trans-oceanic. Biogeographic reconstructions suggest an East Gondwanan origin for Typhlopoidea, an African origin for Grypotyphlops and an Asian origin for Indotyphlops and Argyrophis. It appears that India harbours a combination of ancient and more recently dispersed lineages of typhlopoids. The genus Gerrhopilus is of Gondwanan origin that likely dispersed out of India into Southeast Asia. The other genera are intrusive elements that dispersed into India from Africa (Grypotyphlops) and Asia (Indotyphlops and possibly Argyrophis) post break-up of Gondwana. Thus, our study provides further evidence on the ability of blindsnakes to undergo long distance trans-oceanic dispersal. Results also suggest an Asian origin for typhlopoids from Australasia, Philippines and Wallacea.

Uncertainty in Divergence Time Estimation

Understanding and representing uncertainty is crucial in academic research because it enables studies to build on the conclusions of previous studies, leading to robust advances in a particular field. Here, we evaluate the nature of uncertainty and the manner by which it is represented in divergence time estimation, a field that is fundamental to many aspects of macroevolutionary research, and where there is evidence that uncertainty has been seriously underestimated. We address this issue in the context of methods used in divergence time estimation, and with respect to the manner by which time-calibrated phylogenies are interpreted. With respect to methods, we discuss how the assumptions underlying different methods may not adequately reflect uncertainty about molecular evolution, the fossil record, or diversification rates. Therefore, divergence time estimates may not adequately reflect uncertainty and may be directly contradicted by subsequent findings. For the interpretation of time-calibrated phylogenies, we discuss how the use of time-calibrated phylogenies for reconstructing general evolutionary timescales leads to inferences about macroevolution that are highly sensitive to methodological limitations in how uncertainty is accounted for. By contrast, we discuss how the use of time-calibrated phylogenies to test specific hypotheses leads to inferences about macroevolution that are less sensitive to methodological limitations. Given that many biologists wish to use time-calibrated phylogenies to reconstruct general evolutionary timescales, we conclude that the development of methods of divergence time estimation that adequately account for uncertainty is necessary. [Divergence time estimation; macroevolution; uncertainty.].

A review of transition zones in biogeographical classification

Transition zones are problematic in biogeographical classification as they represent artificial biotic areas. A review of transition zones into existing biogeographical classifications shows conflicting area taxonomies. While many authors consider transition zones as overlap zones or areas of biotic mixing, only a few have considered excluding them from biogeographical classification all together. One way of incorporating transition zones into a natural classification is by treating them as artefacts of geographically overlapping temporally disjunct biotic areas. In doing so, geographically overlapping biotic areas may occupy the same space but have different boundaries and histories. Temporally disjunct areas do form natural hierarchical classifications, as seen in the paleobiogeographical literature. A revision of each transition zone will determine whether they are artificial areas, areas within their own right or potentially geographically overlapping temporally disjunct regions.

Genomic fingerprints of palaeogeographic history: The tempo and mode of rift tectonics across tropical Africa has shaped the diversification of the killifish genus Nothobranchius (Teleostei: Cyprinodontiformes)

This paper reports a phylogeny of the African killifishes (Genus Nothobranchius, Order Cyprinodontiformes) informed by five genetic markers (three nuclear, two mitochondrial) of 80 taxa (seven undescribed and 73 of the 92 recognized species). These short-lived annual fishes occupy seasonally wet habitats in central and eastern Africa, and their distribution coincides largely with the East African Rift System (EARS). The fossil dates of sister clades used to constrain a chronometric tree of all sampled Nothobranchius recovered the origin of the genus at ~13.27 Mya. It was followed by the radiations of six principal clades through the Neogene. An ancestral area estimation tested competing biogeographical hypotheses to constrain the ancestral origin of the genus to the Nilo-Sudan Ecoregion, which seeded a mid-Miocene dispersal event into the Coastal ecoregion, followed closely (~10 Mya) by dispersals southward across the Mozambique coastal plain into the Limpopo Ecoregion. Extending westwards across the Tanzanian plateau, a pulse of radiations through the Pliocene were associated with dispersals and fragmentation of wetlands across the Kalahari and Uganda Ecoregions. We interpret this congruence of drainage rearrangements with dispersals and cladogenic events of Nothobranchius to reflect congruent responses to recurrent uplift and rifting. The coevolution of these freshwater fishes and wetlands is attributed to ultimate control by tectonics, as the EARS extended southwards during the Neogene. Geobiological consilience of the combined evidence supports a tectonic hypothesis for the evolution of Nothobranchius.

Phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling of the wood frog Batrachyla leptopus (Batrachylidae) reveal interglacial diversification in south western Patagonia

Background

The evolutionary history of southern South American organisms has been strongly influenced by Pleistocene climate oscillations. Amphibians are good models to evaluate hypotheses about the influence of these climate cycles on population structure and diversification of the biota, because they are sensitive to environmental changes and have restricted dispersal capabilities. We test hypotheses regarding putative forest refugia and expansion events associated with past climatic changes in the wood frog Batrachyla leptopus distributed along ∼1,000 km of length including glaciated and non-glaciated areas in southwestern Patagonia.

Methods

Using three mitochondrial regions (D-loop, cyt b, and coI) and two nuclear loci (pomc and crybA1), we conducted multilocus phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling to gain insights of the evolutionary history of this species. Intraspecific genealogy was explored with maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and phylogenetic network approaches. Diversification time was assessed using molecular clock models in a Bayesian framework, and demographic scenarios were evaluated using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and extended Bayesian skyline plot (EBSP). Species distribution models (SDM) were reconstructed using climatic and geographic data.

Results

Population structure and genealogical analyses support the existence of four lineages distributed north to south, with moderate to high phylogenetic support (Bootstrap > 70%; BPP > 0.92). The diversification time of B. leptopus’ populations began at ∼0.107 mya. The divergence between A and B lineages would have occurred by the late Pleistocene, approximately 0.068 mya, and divergence between C and D lineages was approximately 0.065 mya. The ABC simulations indicate that lineages coalesced at two different time periods, suggesting the presence of at least two glacial refugia and a postglacial colonization route that may have generated two southern lineages (p = 0.93, type I error: <0.094, type II error: 0.134). EBSP, mismatch distribution and neutrality indexes suggest sudden population expansion at ∼0.02 mya for all lineages. SDM infers fragmented distributions of B. leptopus associated with Pleistocene glaciations. Although the present populations of B. leptopus are found in zones affected by the last glacial maximum (∼0.023 mya), our analyses recover an older history of interglacial diversification (0.107–0.019 mya). In addition, we hypothesize two glacial refugia and three interglacial colonization routes, one of which gave rise to two expanding lineages in the south.