Natural population die-offs: causes and consequences for terrestrial mammals

Identifying protected areas in biodiversity hotspots at risk from climate and human-induced compound events for conserving threatened species

Anthropogenic pressure in areas of biodiversity importance erodes the integrity of the ecosystems they harbour, making features of biodiversity less buffered against extreme climatic events. We define the combination of these disturbances as compound events. We assessed compound event risk in protected areas (PAs) applying a spatial framework guided by criteria and quantitative thresholds associated with exposure to cyclones, drought, and intense human pressure. This assessment was used in a relational matrix to classify PAs with different risk of compound event occurrence. We identified PAs of higher conservation concern by quantifying the extent of human pressure in their surrounding landscape while harbouring large numbers of threatened vertebrate species. Of the 39,694 PAs assessed, very high risk of compound events was determined for 6965 PAs (17.5 %) related to cyclones and human pressure (mainly island hotspots), 6367 PAs (16 %) related to droughts and human pressure (island and continental hotspots), and 2031 PAs (5 %) to cyclones, drought and human pressure (mainly in island hotspots). From the subset of 2031 PAs assessed at very high risk, we identified 239 PAs of higher conservation concern distributed predominantly in the Caribbean Islands, Japan, North America Coastal Plain, Philippines, and Southwest Australia. Our work highlights PAs in the biodiversity hotspots where high risk of compound event occurrence poses a greater threat to species. We encourage researchers to adapt and apply this framework across other globally significant sites for conserving biodiversity to identify high risk-prone areas, and prevent further biodiversity decline.

Taxonomy, distribution, and contemporary exposure of terrestrial mammals to floods and human pressure across different areas for biodiversity conservation in China

A significant research focus is placed on identifying animal species and areas at future risk to human-induced alterations of the environment and long-term changes in climatic conditions. Yet, the extent to which exposure to extreme climatic events and intense human pressure can increase the risk of harmful impacts on species remains poorly investigated. Focusing on terrestrial mammals in China, one of the world's megadiverse countries, we investigated patterns of contemporary exposure to floods and human pressures and determined their taxonomic representation and distribution across three major area-based conservation schemes, namely, national nature reserves (NNRs), priority areas for biodiversity conservation (PABCs), and key biodiversity areas (KBAs). Among the 440 species assessed with moderate or high exposure to floods, 327 (∼75%) also qualified as moderate or high in exposure to intense human pressure. These species mainly belong to the orders Chiroptera, Eulipotyphla, and Rodentia. Likewise, there were 305, 311, and 311 species with moderate or high exposure to flood and intense human pressure represented across NNRs, PABCs, and KBAs, respectively. Our findings support the prioritization of KBAs for expansion of site-based protection efforts such as NNRs in China, considering threats to species from exposure to adverse effects from both extreme climate and human pressure.

Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme weather worldwide

Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change.

A conceptual framework for assessing behavioral flexibility of species in response to extreme climatic events

Inherent differences in the adaptive capacity of species to flexibly respond to extreme climatic events (ECEs) represent a key factor in their survivorship. We introduce and apply a conceptual framework linking knowledge about species' current ecology and biology with variation in behavioral flexibility to ECEs. We applied it to 199 non-human primate species currently exposed to cyclones across the global tropics. Our findings suggest that species characterized by an increased ability to exploit a broad range of food types, social systems that permit subgrouping, and habitat types that span a range of environmental conditions may have greater success in coping with cyclones than more narrowly constrained or less adaptable primates. Overall, 15% of species, predominantly of the families Atelidae and Cercopithecidae, were assessed as having high or very high flexibility. In contrast, ~ 60% of primates were assessed with low or very low flexibility. These were species mainly belonging to the Cheirogaleidae, Lemuridae, Lepilemuridae, and Indriidae. While much work remains to better understand mechanisms driving differences in behavioral flexibility of species exposed to extreme climate across vertebrate lineages, our framework provides a workable approach that can improve estimates of current vulnerability to these phenomena and better inform conservation and management strategies.

An enigmatic mass mortality event of Blanding’s Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) in a protected area

Mass mortality events (MMEs) can remove up to 90% of individuals in a population and are especially damaging to population viability of long-lived species with slow life histories. Our goal was to elucidate the cause(s) of a MME of 53 Blanding’s Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii (Holbrook, 1838)), a globally endangered species, in a protected area. We investigated disease, winter-kill, and depredation as potential causes of the mortality. The turtle carcasses lacked soft tissue to test for disease, so we examined tissue from co-occurring live Leopard Frogs (Lithobates pipiens (Schreber, 1782)) and found no evidence of ranavirus, indicating that the disease was not present at our study site. Water temperature and dissolved aquatic oxygen at known overwintering sites and sites which yielded carcasses did not differ, suggesting that winter-kill did not cause the MME. Carcass condition, comparisons with descriptions of turtle depredation events in the literature, and trail cameras paired with turtle decoys identified potential predators within the study site and suggested that mass depredation, enabled by low water levels and a concomitant reduction in aquatic habitat, was the most likely cause of mortality. Our study can inform conservation of the study population and the management of MMEs of long-lived species elsewhere.

Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna

Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.

Improving Predictions of Climate Change-Land Use Change Interactions

Climate change and land use change often interact, altering biodiversity in unexpected ways. Research into climate change-land use change (CC-LUC) interactions has so far focused on quantifying biodiversity outcomes, rather than identifying the underlying ecological mechanisms, making it difficult to predict interactions and design appropriate conservation responses. We propose a risk-based framework to further our understanding of CC-LUC interactions. By identifying the factors driving the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change, and then examining how these factors are altered by climate change (or vice versa), this framework will allow the effects of different interaction mechanisms to be compared across geographic and ecological contexts, supporting efforts to reduce biodiversity loss from interacting stressors.

Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

Island ecosystems are notoriously vulnerable to anthropogenic species losses. Here, the authors identify insular hotspots of vulnerability to climate change (under RCPs 6.0 and 8.5) in mammals via a trait-based, quantitative vulnerability framework, finding that exposure to climate change is not a reliable proxy to assess species vulnerability, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are crucial to understand vulnerability.

Modelling persistence over generations in biological and cultural evolution based on differential paces of change

Paces of change are faster in cultural evolution than in biological evolution due to different levels of stability in information storage. This study develops mathematical models to investigate the consequences of differential mutation rates on the ability of groups of information units to survive over many generations. We examined the ability of groups composed of connected units to live on despite the occurrence of deleterious mutations that occur at probabilities ranging from 10^-1 to 10^-6. It appears that the degree of connection between units should be high enough for groups to persist across generations, but this alone did not ensure their survival; when groups of units were limited in size and subjected to high mutation rates, they did not survive for very long. By contrast, a significant proportion of groups were able to survive numerous generations if mutation rates were low and/or group size was large. The results revealed that the mean number of surviving generations was minimized for certain sizes of groups. When allowing information units to duplicate at each generation, simulation showed that a great number of groups avoided extinction even when mutating at the rate of cultural change if the initial group size was large and the duplication rate was high enough to counteract the consequences of environmental perturbations. The modelling described in this study sets out the conditions under which groups of units can survive along generations. It should serve as a basis for further investigations about the links between processes of biological and cultural changes.

Location-level processes drive the establishment of alien bird populations worldwide

Human-mediated translocation of species to areas beyond their natural distribution (here termed aliens1) is a key signature of the Anthropocene2 and a primary driver of global biodiversity loss and environmental change3. Stemming the tide of invasions requires understanding why some species fail to establish alien populations, while others succeed. To achieve this, we need to integrate the impact of features of the introduction site, the species introduced, and the specific introduction event. However, determining which, if any, location-level factors affect establishment success has proved difficult due to the multiple spatial, temporal and phylogenetic axes along which environmental variation may influence population survival. Here, we apply Bayesian hierarchical regression analysis to a global spatially and temporally explicit database of alien bird introduction events4 to show that environmental conditions at the introduction location, notably climatic suitability and the presence of other alien species groups are the primary determinants of establishment success. Species-level traits and founding population size (propagule pressure) exert secondary, but still important, effects on success. Thus, current trajectories of anthropogenic environmental change will most likely facilitate future incursions by alien species, but predicting future invasions will require integrating multiple location, species, and event-level characteristics.

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Recent shifts in the occurrence, cause, and magnitude of animal mass mortality events

Mass mortality events (MMEs) are rapidly occurring catastrophic demographic events that punctuate background mortality levels. Individual MMEs are staggering in their observed magnitude: removing more than 90% of a population, resulting in the death of more than a billion individuals, or producing 700 million tons of dead biomass in a single event. Despite extensive documentation of individual MMEs, we have no understanding of the major features characterizing the occurrence and magnitude of MMEs, their causes, or trends through time. Thus, no framework exists for contextualizing MMEs in the wake of ongoing global and regional perturbations to natural systems. Here we present an analysis of 727 published MMEs from across the globe, affecting 2,407 animal populations. We show that the magnitude of MMEs has been intensifying for birds, fishes, and marine invertebrates; invariant for mammals; and decreasing for reptiles and amphibians. These shifts in magnitude proved robust when we accounted for an increase in the occurrence of MMEs since 1940. However, it remains unclear whether the increase in the occurrence of MMEs represents a true pattern or simply a perceived increase. Regardless, the increase in MMEs appears to be associated with a rise in disease emergence, biotoxicity, and events produced by multiple interacting stressors, yet temporal trends in MME causes varied among taxa and may be associated with increased detectability. In addition, MMEs with the largest magnitudes were those that resulted from multiple stressors, starvation, and disease. These results advance our understanding of rare demographic processes and their relationship to global and regional perturbations to natural systems.

Social effects on foraging behavior and success depend on local environmental conditions

In social groups, individuals' dominance rank, social bonds, and kinship with other group members have been shown to influence their foraging behavior. However, there is growing evidence that the particular effects of these social traits may also depend on local environmental conditions. We investigated this by comparing the foraging behavior of wild chacma baboons, Papio ursinus, under natural conditions and in a field experiment where food was spatially clumped. Data were collected from 55 animals across two troops over a 5-month period, including over 900 agonistic foraging interactions and over 600 food patch visits in each condition. In both conditions, low-ranked individuals received more agonism, but this only translated into reduced foraging performances for low-ranked individuals in the high-competition experimental conditions. Our results suggest one possible reason for this pattern may be low-ranked individuals strategically investing social effort to negotiate foraging tolerance, but the rank-offsetting effect of this investment being overwhelmed in the higher-competition experimental environment. Our results also suggest that individuals may use imbalances in their social bonds to negotiate tolerance from others under a wider range of environmental conditions, but utilize the overall strength of their social bonds in more extreme environments where feeding competition is more intense. These findings highlight that behavioral tactics such as the strategic investment of social effort may allow foragers to mitigate the costs of low rank, but that the effectiveness of these tactics is likely to be limited in certain environments.

Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.