Evolutionary theory as a tool for predicting extinction risk

Ecophysical constraints on avian adaptation and diversification

The evolution of morphological diversity is ultimately governed by physical laws and ecological contexts, which together impose a range of ecophysical constraints. Substantial progress has been made in identifying how these constraints shape the form and function of producers (plants), but similar knowledge is lacking for consumers, in part because the requisite data have not been available at sufficient scale for animals. Using morphometric measurements for all birds, we demonstrate that observed variation is restricted-both for beak shape and body shape-to triangular regions of morphospace with clearly defined boundaries and vertices (corners). By combining morphometric data with information on ecological and behavioral functions, we provide evidence that the extent of avian morphospace reflects a trade-off between three fundamental physical tasks for feeding (crush, engulf, and reach) that characterize resource acquisition and processing by the beak and three physical tasks (fly, swim, and walk) that characterize avian lifestyles or locomotion. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that trajectories of morphological evolution trend toward the vertices, with lineages evolving from a core of functional generalists toward more specialized physical tasks. We further propose that expansion beyond the current boundaries of morphospace is constrained by the shorter evolutionary lifespan of functional specialists, although patterns of speciation rate and current extinction risk provide only weak support for this hypothesis. Overall, we show that the structure of avian morphospace follows relatively simple rules defined by ecophysical constraints and trade-offs, shedding light on the processes shaping modern animal diversity and responses to environmental change.

Prolonged faunal turnover in earliest ants revealed by North American Cretaceous amber

All ∼14,000 extant ant species descended from the same common ancestor, which lived ∼140-120 million years ago (Ma).1,2 While modern ants began to diversify in the Cretaceous, recent fossil evidence has demonstrated that older lineages concomitantly occupied the same ancient ecosystems.3 These early-diverging ant lineages, or stem ants, left no modern descendants; however, they dominated the fossil record throughout the Cretaceous until their ultimate extinction sometime around the K-Pg boundary. Even as stem ant lineages appear to be diverse and abundant throughout the Cretaceous, the extent of their longevity in the fossil record and circumstances contributing to their extinction remain unknown.3 Here we report the youngest stem ants, preserved in ∼77 Ma Cretaceous amber from North Carolina, which illustrate unexpected morphological stability and lineage persistence in this enigmatic group, rivaling the longevity of contemporary ants. Through phylogenetic reconstruction and morphometric analyses, we find evidence that total taxic turnover in ants was not accompanied by a fundamental morphological shift, in contrast to other analogous stem extinctions such as theropod dinosaurs. While stem taxa showed broad morphological variation, high-density ant morphospace remained relatively constant through the last 100 million years, detailing a parallel, but temporally staggered, evolutionary history of modern and stem ants.

The Effect of Habitat on Insect Movements: Experimental Evidence from Wild-Caught Butterflies

There is broad evidence that the main driver of the ongoing biodiversity crisis is land-use change, which reduces and fragments habitats. The consequence of habitat fragmentation on behavioural responses of fitness-related traits in insects have been so far understudied. In herbivorous insects, oviposition-related behaviours determine access to larval food, and the fate of the next generation. We present a pilot study to assess differences in behaviours related to movement and oviposition in Limenitis camilla butterflies from Wallonia (Belgium), one of the most fragmented regions in Europe. We first quantified variation in functional habitat connectivity across Wallonia and found that fragmented habitats had more abundant, but less evenly distributed host plants of L. camilla. Secondly, we quantified the behaviours of field-caught L. camilla females originating from habitats with contrasted landscape connectivity in an outdoor experimental setting. We found differences in behaviours related to flight investment: butterflies from fragmented woodlands spent more time in departing flight, which we associated with dispersal, than butterflies from homogenous woodlands. Although results from this study should be interpreted with caution given the limited sample size, they provide valuable insights for the advancement of behavioural research that aims to assess the effects of global changes on insects.

New Avenues for Old Travellers: Phenotypic Evolutionary Trends Meet Morphodynamics, and Both Enter the Global Change Biology Era

Evolutionary trends (ETs) are traditionally defined as substantial changes in the state of traits through time produced by a persistent condition of directional evolution. ETs might also include directional responses to ecological, climatic or biological gradients and represent the primary evolutionary pattern at high taxonomic levels and over long-time scales. The absence of a well-supported operative definition of ETs blurred the definition of conceptual differences between ETs and other key concepts in evolution such as convergence, parallel evolution, and divergence. Also, it prevented the formulation of modern guidelines for studying ETs and evolutionary dynamics related to them. In phenotypic evolution, the theory of morphodynamics states that the interplay between evolutionary factors such as phylogeny, evo-devo constraints, environment, and biological function determines morphological evolution. After introducing a new operative definition, here we provide a morphodynamics-based framework for studying phenotypic ETs, discussing how understanding the impact of these factors on ETs improves the explanation of links between biological patterns and processes underpinning directional evolution. We envisage that adopting a quantitative, pattern-based, and multifactorial approach will pave the way to new potential applications for this field of evolutionary biology. In this framework, by exploiting the catalysing effect of climate change on evolution, research on ETs induced by global change might represent an ideal arena for validating hypotheses about the predictability of evolution.

Comparing non-breeding distribution and behavior of red-legged kittiwakes from two geographically distant colonies

Knowledge of non-breeding distributions is a crucial component to seabird conservation, as conditions during the non-breeding period can play an important role in regulating seabird populations. Specifically, if seabirds from different colonies share the same wintering grounds, conditions in that shared region could have a widespread impact on multiple breeding populations. Red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa brevirostris) are endemic to the Bering Sea and may be especially susceptible to effects of climate change due to a restricted breeding range, small population size, and specialized diet. To examine whether red-legged kittiwakes from different breeding colonies overlapped in winter distribution and activity patterns, we used geolocation loggers to simultaneously track individuals from the two largest red-legged kittiwake breeding colonies in Alaska (separated by over 1000 km) during two consecutive non-breeding periods. We found that non-breeding activity patterns were generally similar between birds originating from the two colonies, but birds employed different migratory strategies during the early winter. Kittiwakes from Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands left the colony in September and immediately headed west, spending October through December around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands. In contrast, birds from St. George Island in the Pribilof Islands remained in the eastern Bering Sea or around the eastern Aleutian Islands for a couple months before traveling farther west. During late winter however, from January through March, birds from both colonies converged south of Kamchatka and east of the Kuril Islands over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and in the Western Subarctic Gyre before returning to their respective colonies in the spring. This late winter overlap in distributions along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench suggests the region is a winter hotspot for red-legged kittiwakes and highlights the importance of this region for the global kittiwake population.

Pelagic and benthic ecosystems drive differences in population and individual specializations in marine predators

Individual specialization, which describes whether populations are comprised of dietary generalists or specialists, has profound ecological and evolutionary implications. However, few studies have quantified individual specialization within and between sympatric species that are functionally similar but have different foraging modes. We assessed the relationship between individual specialization, isotopic niche metrics and foraging behaviour of two marine predators with contrasting foraging modes: pelagic foraging female South American fur seals (Arctocephalus australis) and benthic foraging female southern sea lions (Otaria byronia). Stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen was conducted along the length of adult female vibrissae to determine isotopic niche metrics and the degree of individual specialization. Vibrissae integrated time ranged between 1.1 and 5.5 years, depending on vibrissae length. We found limited overlap in dietary niche-space. Broader population niche sizes were associated with higher degrees of individual specialization, while narrower population niches with lower degrees of individual specialization. The degree of individual specialization was influenced by pelagic and benthic foraging modes. Specifically, South American fur seals, foraging in dynamic pelagic environments with abundant but similar prey, comprised specialist populations composed of generalist individuals. In contrast, benthic southern sea lions foraging in habitats with diverse but less abundant prey had more generalist populations composed of highly specialized individuals. We hypothesize that differences in specialization within and between populations were related to prey availability and habitat differences. Our study supports growing body of literature highlighting that individual specialization is a critical factor in shaping the ecological niche of higher marine predators.

Influence of hunting strategy on foraging efficiency in Galapagos sea lions

The endangered Galapagos sea lion (GSL, Zalophus wollebaeki) exhibits a range of foraging strategies utilising various dive types including benthic, epipelagic and mesopelagic dives. In the present study, potential prey captures (PPC), prey energy consumption and energy expenditure in lactating adult female GSLs (n = 9) were examined to determine their foraging efficiency relative to the foraging strategy used. Individuals displayed four dive types: (a) epipelagic (<100 m; EP); or (b) mesopelagic (>100 m; MP) with a characteristic V-shape or U-shape diving profile; and (c) shallow benthic (<100 m; SB) or (d) deep benthic (>100 m; DB) with square or flat-bottom dive profiles. These dive types varied in the number of PPC, assumed prey types, and the energy expended. Prey items and their energetic value were assumed from previous GSL diet studies in combination with common habitat and depth ranges of the prey. In comparison to pelagic dives occurring at similar depths, when diving benthically, GSLs had both higher prey energy consumption and foraging energy expenditure whereas PPC rate was lower. Foraging efficiency varied across dive types, with benthic dives being more profitable than pelagic dives. Three foraging trip strategies were identified and varied relative to prey energy consumed, energy expended, and dive behaviour. Foraging efficiency did not significantly vary among the foraging trip strategies suggesting that, while individuals may diverge into different foraging habitats, they are optimal within them. These findings indicate that these three strategies will have different sensitivities to habitat-specific fluctuations due to environmental change.

Diving deep into trouble: the role of foraging strategy and morphology in adapting to a changing environment

Physiology places constraints on an animal's ability to forage and those unable to adapt to changing conditions may face increased challenges to reproduce and survive. As the global marine environment continues to change, small, air-breathing, endothermic marine predators such as otariids (fur seals and sea lions) and particularly females, who are constrained by central place foraging during breeding, may experience increased difficulties in successfully obtaining adequate food resources. We explored whether physiological limits of female otariids may be innately related to body morphology (fur seals vs sea lions) and/or dictate foraging strategies (epipelagic vs mesopelagic or benthic). We conducted a systematic review of the increased body of literature since the original reviews of Costa et al. (When does physiology limit the foraging behaviour of freely diving mammals? Int Congr Ser 2004;1275:359-366) and Arnould and Costa (Sea lions in drag, fur seals incognito: insights from the otariid deviants. In Sea Lions of the World Fairbanks. Alaska Sea Grant College Program, Alaska, USA, pp. 309-324, 2006) on behavioural (dive duration and depth) and physiological (total body oxygen stores and diving metabolic rates) parameters. We estimated calculated aerobic dive limit (cADL-estimated duration of aerobic dives) for species and used simulations to predict the proportion of dives that exceeded the cADL. We tested whether body morphology or foraging strategy was the primary predictor of these behavioural and physiological characteristics. We found that the foraging strategy compared to morphology was a better predictor of most parameters, including whether a species was more likely to exceed their cADL during a dive and the ratio of dive time to cADL. This suggests that benthic and mesopelagic divers are more likely to be foraging at their physiological capacity. For species operating near their physiological capacity (regularly exceeding their cADL), the ability to switch strategies is limited as the cost of foraging deeper and longer is disproportionally high, unless it is accompanied by physiological adaptations. It is proposed that some otariids may not have the ability to switch foraging strategies and so be unable adapt to a changing oceanic ecosystem.

Trophic Niches, Trophic Positions, and Niche Overlaps between Non-Native and Native Fish Species in a Subalpine Lake

In the last century, Italian freshwater ecosystems have been invaded by several non-native fish species. In the subalpine Lake Mergozzo (northern Italy), several recently introduced non-native species dramatically expanded their populations. We used carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes to describe the isotopic niches and trophic positions of native and non-native fish species in Lake Mergozzo. We evaluated their trophic niches, trophic diversity, trophic redundancy and trophic evenness utilizing isotopic niche metrics, and estimated asymmetrical niche overlaps. The trophic traits of non-native fish species and Perca fluviatilis clearly define them as trophic generalists, in terms of among-individual variability of their isotopic niches. The historical increase in abundance of fish non-native species in this lake, their dominance by numbers and biomass within the assemblage, and their broad asymmetrical niche overlaps suggest that their higher degree of trophic generalism might have been one of the key factors that have promoted the invasion of the recipient community.

Rapid deep ocean deoxygenation and acidification threaten life on Northeast Pacific seamounts

Anthropogenic climate change is causing our oceans to lose oxygen and become more acidic at an unprecedented rate, threatening marine ecosystems and their associated animals. In deep-sea environments, where conditions have typically changed over geological timescales, the associated animals, adapted to these stable conditions, are expected to be highly vulnerable to any change or direct human impact. Our study coalesces one of the longest deep-sea observational oceanographic time series, reaching back to the 1960s, with a modern visual survey that characterizes almost two vertical kilometers of benthic seamount ecosystems. Based on our new and rigorous analysis of the Line P oceanographic monitoring data, the upper 3,000 m of the Northeast Pacific (NEP) has lost 15% of its oxygen in the last 60 years. Over that time, the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), ranging between approximately 480 and 1,700 m, has expanded at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 m/year (due to deepening at the bottom). Additionally, carbonate saturation horizons above the OMZ have been shoaling at a rate of 1-2 m/year since the 1980s. Based on our visual surveys of four NEP seamounts, these deep-sea features support ecologically important taxa typified by long life spans, slow growth rates, and limited mobility, including habitat-forming cold water corals and sponges, echinoderms, and fish. By examining the changing conditions within the narrow realized bathymetric niches for a subset of vulnerable populations, we resolve chemical trends that are rapid in comparison to the life span of the taxa and detrimental to their survival. If these trends continue as they have over the last three to six decades, they threaten to diminish regional seamount ecosystem diversity and cause local extinctions. This study highlights the importance of mitigating direct human impacts as species continue to suffer environmental changes beyond our immediate control.

Phylogenetic signals in pest abundance and distribution range of spider mites

Background

Attributes of pest species like host range are frequently reported as being evolutionarily constrained and showing phylogenetic signal. Because these attributes in turn could influence the abundance and impact of species, phylogenetic information could be useful in predicting the likely status of pests. In this study, we used regional (China) and global datasets to investigate phylogenetic patterns in occurrence patterns and host ranges of spider mites, which constitute a pest group of many cropping systems worldwide.

Results

We found significant phylogenetic signal in relative abundance and distribution range both at the regional and global scales. Relative abundance and range size of spider mites were positively correlated with host range, although these correlations became weaker after controlling for phylogeny.

Conclusions

The results suggest that pest impacts are evolutionarily constrained. Information that is easily obtainable – including the number of known hosts and phylogenetic position of the mites – could therefore be useful in predicting future pest risk of species.

Diversity loss is predicted to increase extinction risk of specialist animals by constraining their ability to expand niche

Specialist animals are at a greater risk of extinction in the face of environmental change than generalist ones. The inability of some specialist taxa to expand host range through evolution may exacerbate or cause their high extinction risk. Here we use connectionism (a framework for modelling animal behaviour) to predict the environmental and physiological factors that predispose some specialist taxa to an 'evolutionary dead-end'. Neural networks are evolved to become resource-specialised in a resource-abundant and resource-diverse 'historical' environment while losing 'genes' that should restrict their ability to expand their host range. Networks are subsequently challenged to escape their dead-end by expanding host range in a 'contemporary' environment that may have depleted resource abundance and diversity (as many human impacted environments do). Loss of diversity in available resources universally constrains the ability of networks to expand host range and this effect is very robust to network conformation. Environmental resource abundance is more variable in its effect. Networks are generally robust to loss of genetic diversity during the evolution of specialisation except at very high rates of loss. By omitting historical specialisation, we show that the effect of resource diversity on host range expansion is not a universal network property but something that is often specific to specialist organisms. Historical specialisation also slightly reduces the robustness of networks in the contemporary environment to loss of genetic diversity during the specialisation process. Fundamentally, simulations predict that loss of local resource diversity will further increase the vulnerability of specialists to extinction by constraining their ability to expand host range in the face of environmental change.

Ecological specialization, variability in activity patterns and response to environmental change

Differences in temporal patterns of activity can modulate the ambient conditions to which organisms are exposed, providing an important mechanism for responding to environmental change. Such differences may be particularly relevant to ecological generalists, which are expected to encounter a wider range of environmental conditions. Here, we compare temporal patterns of activity for partially sympatric populations of a generalist (the lodgepole chipmunk, Tamias speciosus) and a more specialized congener (the alpine chipmunk, Tamias alpinus) that have displayed divergent responses to the past century of environmental change. Although mean activity budgets were similar between species, analyses of individual-level variation in locomotion revealed that T. alpinus exhibited a narrower range of activity patterns than Tspeciosus Further analyses revealed that T. alpinus was more active earlier in the day, when temperatures were cooler, and that activity patterns for both species changed with increased interspecific co-occurrence. These results are consistent with the greater responsiveness of T. alpinus to changes in environmental conditions. In addition to highlighting the utility of accelerometers for collecting behavioural data, our findings add to a growing body of evidence, suggesting that the greater phenotypic variability displayed by ecological generalists may be critical to in situ responses to environmental change.

Implications of existing local (mal)adaptations for ecological forecasting under environmental change

Standing genetic variation represents a genetic load on population fitness but can also support a rapid response to short-term environmental change, and the greatest potential source of such standing genetic variation typically exists among locally adapted populations living along an environmental gradient. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to quantify the contribution of existing genetic variation arising from migration-mutation-selection-drift balance to time to extinction under environmental change. Simulations reveal that local adaptation across a species range associated with an underlying environmental gradient could extend time to extinction by nearly threefold irrespective of the rate of environmental change. The potential for preadapted alleles to increase the rate of adaptation changes the relative importance of established extinction risk factors; in particular, it reduced the importance of the breadth of environmental tolerance and it increased the relative importance of fecundity. Although migration of preadapted alleles generally increased persistence time, it decreased it at rates of environmental change close to the critical rate of change by creating a population bottleneck, which ultimately limited the rate at which de novo mutations could arise. An analysis of the extinction dynamics further revealed that one consequence of gene flow is the potential to maximize population growth rate in at least part of the species range, which is likely to have consequences for forecasting the consequences of ecological interactions. Our study shows that predictions of persistence time change fundamentally when existing local adaptations are explicitly taken into account, underscoring the need to preserve and manage genetic diversity.

Surfing on the seascape: Adaptation in a changing environment

The environment changes constantly at various time scales and, in order to survive, species need to keep adapting. Whether these species succeed in avoiding extinction is a major evolutionary question. Using a multilocus evolutionary model of a mutation-limited population adapting under strong selection, we investigate the effects of the frequency of environmental fluctuations on adaptation. Our results rely on an "adaptive-walk" approximation and use mathematical methods from evolutionary computation theory to investigate the interplay between fluctuation frequency, the similarity of environments, and the number of loci contributing to adaptation. First, we assume a linear additive fitness function, but later generalize our results to include several types of epistasis. We show that frequent environmental changes prevent populations from reaching a fitness peak, but they may also prevent the large fitness loss that occurs after a single environmental change. Thus, the population can survive, although not thrive, in a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, we show that in a frequently changing environment, the similarity of threats that a population faces affects the level of adaptation that it is able to achieve. We check and supplement our analytical results with simulations.

Species delimitation in endangered groundwater salamanders: Implications for aquifer management and biodiversity conservation

Groundwater-dependent species are among the least-known components of global biodiversity, as well as some of the most vulnerable because of rapid groundwater depletion at regional and global scales. The karstic Edwards-Trinity aquifer system of west-central Texas is one of the most species-rich groundwater systems in the world, represented by dozens of endemic groundwater-obligate species with narrow, naturally fragmented distributions. Here, we examine how geomorphological and hydrogeological processes have driven population divergence and speciation in a radiation of salamanders (Eurycea) endemic to the Edwards-Trinity system using phylogenetic and population genetic analysis of genome-wide DNA sequence data. Results revealed complex patterns of isolation and reconnection driven by surface and subsurface hydrology, resulting in both adaptive and nonadaptive population divergence and speciation. Our results uncover cryptic species diversity and refine the borders of several threatened and endangered species. The US Endangered Species Act has been used to bring state regulation to unrestricted groundwater withdrawals in the Edwards (Balcones Fault Zone) Aquifer, where listed species are found. However, the Trinity and Edwards-Trinity (Plateau) aquifers harbor additional species with similarly small ranges that currently receive no protection from regulatory programs designed to prevent groundwater depletion. Based on regional climate models that predict increased air temperature, together with hydrologic models that project decreased springflow, we conclude that Edwards-Trinity salamanders and other codistributed groundwater-dependent organisms are highly vulnerable to extinction within the next century.

Understanding managers' and scientists' perspectives on opportunities to achieve more evolutionarily enlightened management in conservation

Despite wide acceptance that conservation could benefit from greater attention to principles and processes from evolutionary biology, little attention has been given to quantifying the degree to which relevant evolutionary concepts are being integrated into management practices. There has also been increasing discussion of the potential reasons for a lack of evolutionarily enlightened management, but no attempts to understand the challenges from the perspective of those making management decisions. In this study, we asked conservation managers and scientists for their views on the importance of a range of key evolutionary concepts, the degree to which these concepts are being integrated into management, and what would need to change to support better integration into management practices. We found that while managers recognize the importance of a wide range of evolutionary concepts for conservation outcomes, they acknowledge these concepts are rarely incorporated into management. Managers and scientists were in strong agreement about the range of barriers that need to be overcome, with a lack of knowledge reported as the most important barrier to better integration of evolutionary biology into conservation decision-making. Although managers tended to be more focused on the need for more training in evolutionary biology, scientists reported greater engagement between managers and evolutionary biologists as most important to achieve the necessary change. Nevertheless, the challenges appear to be multifaceted, and several are outside the control of managers, suggesting solutions will need to be multidimensional.

Climate mediates the success of migration strategies in a marine predator

Individual behavioural specialisation has far-reaching effects on fitness and population persistence. Theory predicts that unconditional site fidelity, that is fidelity to a site independent of past outcome, provides a fitness advantage in unpredictable environments. However, the benefits of alternative site fidelity strategies driving intraspecific variation remain poorly understood and have not been evaluated in different environmental contexts. We show that contrary to expectation, strong and weak site fidelity strategies in migratory northern elephant seals performed similarly over 10 years, but the success of each strategy varied interannually and was strongly mediated by climate conditions. Strong fidelity facilitated stable energetic rewards and low risk, while weak fidelity facilitated high rewards and high risk. Weak fidelity outperformed strong fidelity in anomalous climate conditions, suggesting that the evolutionary benefits of site fidelity may be upended by increasing environmental variability. We highlight how individual behavioural specialisation may modulate the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.

Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.

Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin

Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors—especially those of anthropogenic origins—may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.

Disentangling the cause of a catastrophic population decline in a large marine mammal

Considerable uncertainties often surround the causes of long-term changes in population abundance. One striking example is the precipitous decline of southern sea lions (SSL; Otariaflavescens) at the Falkland Islands, from 80 555 pups in the mid 1930s to just 5506 pups in 1965. Despite an increase in SSL abundance over the past two decades, the population has not recovered, with the number of pups born in 2014 (minimum 4443 pups) less than 6% of the 1930s estimate. The order-of-magnitude decline is primarily attributed to commercial sealing in Argentina. Here, we test this established paradigm and alternative hypotheses by assessing (1) commercial sealing at the Falkland Islands, (2) winter migration of SSL from the Falkland Islands to Argentina, (3) whether the number of SSL in Argentina could have sustained the reported level of exploitation, and (4) environmental change. The most parsimonious hypothesis explaining the SSL population decline was environmental change. Specifically, analysis of 160 years of winter sea surface temperatures revealed marked changes, including a period of warming between 1930 and 1950 that was consistent with the period of SSL decline. Sea surface temperature changes likely influenced the distribution or availability of SSL prey and impacted its population dynamics. We suggest that historical harvesting may not always be the "smoking gun" as is often purported. Rather, our conclusions support the growing evidence for bottom-up forcing on the abundance of species at lower trophic levels (e.g., plankton and fish) and resulting impacts on higher trophic levels across a broad range of ecosystems.

Ecological relevance of biomarkers in monitoring studies of macro-invertebrates and fish in Mediterranean rivers

Mediterranean rivers are probably one of the most singular and endangered ecosystems worldwide due to the presence of many endemic species and a long history of anthropogenic impacts. Besides a conservation value per se, biodiversity is related to the services that ecosystems provide to society and the ability of these to cope with stressors, including climate change. Using macro-invertebrates and fish as sentinel organisms, this overview presents a synthesis of the state of the art in the application of biomarkers (stress and enzymatic responses, endocrine disruptors, trophic tracers, energy and bile metabolites, genotoxic indicators, histopathological and behavioural alterations, and genetic and cutting edge omic markers) to determine the causes and effects of anthropogenic stressors on the biodiversity of European Mediterranean rivers. We also discuss how a careful selection of sentinel species according to their ecological traits and the food-web structure of Mediterranean rivers could increase the ecological relevance of biomarker responses. Further, we provide suggestions to better harmonise ecological realism with experimental design in biomarker studies, including statistical analyses, which may also deliver a more comprehensible message to managers and policy makers. By keeping on the safe side the health status of populations of multiple-species in a community, we advocate to increase the resilience of fluvial ecosystems to face present and forecasted stressors. In conclusion, this review provides evidence that multi-biomarker approaches detect early signs of impairment in populations, and supports their incorporation in the standardised procedures of the Water Frame Work Directive to better appraise the status of European water bodies.

Understanding the individual to implement the ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EAFMs) have emerged as requisite for sustainable use of fisheries resources. At the same time, however, there is a growing recognition of the degree of variation among individuals within a population, as well as the ecological consequences of this variation. Managing resources at an ecosystem level calls on practitioners to consider evolutionary processes, and ample evidence from the realm of fisheries science indicates that anthropogenic disturbance can drive changes in predominant character traits (e.g. size at maturity). Eco-evolutionary theory suggests that human-induced trait change and the modification of selective regimens might contribute to ecosystem dynamics at a similar magnitude to species extirpation, extinction and ecological dysfunction. Given the dynamic interaction between fisheries and target species via harvest and subsequent ecosystem consequences, we argue that individual diversity in genetic, physiological and behavioural traits are important considerations under EAFMs. Here, we examine the role of individual variation in a number of contexts relevant to fisheries management, including the potential ecological effects of rapid trait change. Using select examples, we highlight the extent of phenotypic diversity of individuals, as well as the ecological constraints on such diversity. We conclude that individual phenotypic diversity is a complex phenomenon that needs to be considered in EAFMs, with the ultimate realization that maintaining or increasing individual trait diversity may afford not only species, but also entire ecosystems, with enhanced resilience to environmental perturbations. Put simply, individuals are the foundation from which population- and ecosystem-level traits emerge and are therefore of central importance for the ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management.

Nocturnal Foraging by Red-Legged Kittiwakes, a Surface Feeding Seabird That Relies on Deep Water Prey During Reproduction

Narrow foraging specialization may increase the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change. The red-legged kittiwake (Rissa brevirostris) is endemic to the Bering Sea and has experienced drastic population fluctuations in recent decades, presumably due to climate-driven changes in food resources. Red-legged kittiwakes are presumed to be a nocturnal surface-foraging seabird that feed almost entirely on deep water Myctophidae fishes. However, there is little empirical evidence confirming their nocturnal foraging activity during the breeding season. This study investigated the foraging behavior of red-legged kittiwakes by combining GPS tracking, accelerometry, and dietary analyses at the world’s largest breeding colony of red-legged kittiwakes on St. George I. GPS tracking of 5 individuals revealed that 82.5% of non-flight behavior (including foraging and resting) occurred over the ocean basin (bottom depth >1,000 m). Acceleration data from 4 birds showed three types of behaviors during foraging trips: (1) flight, characterized by regular wing flapping, (2) resting on water, characterized by non-active behavior, and (3) foraging, when wing flapping was irregular. The proportions of both foraging and resting behaviors were higher at night (14.1 ± 7.1% and 20.8 ± 14.3%) compared to those during the day (6.5 ± 3.0% and 1.7 ± 2.7%). The mean duration of foraging (2.4 ± 2.9 min) was shorter than that of flight between prey patches (24.2 ± 53.1 min). Dietary analyses confirmed myctophids as the dominant prey (100% by occurrence and 98.4 ± 2.4% by wet-weight). Although the sample size was limited, these results suggest that breeding red-legged kittiwakes concentrated their foraging on myctophids available at the surface during nighttime in deep water regions. We propose that the diel patterns and ephemeral nature of their foraging activity reflected the availability of myctophids. Such foraging specialization may exacerbate the vulnerability of red-legged kittiwakes to climate change in the Bering Sea.

Two Species with an Unusual Combination of Traits Dominate Responses of British Grasshoppers and Crickets to Environmental Change

There are large variations in the responses of species to the environmental changes of recent decades, heightening interest in whether their traits may explain inter-specific differences in range expansions and contractions. Using a long-term distributional dataset, we calculated range changes of grasshoppers and crickets in Britain between the 1980s and the 2000s and assessed whether their traits (resource use, life history, dispersal ability, geographic location) explain relative performance of different species. Our analysis showed large changes in the distributions of some species, and we found a positive relationship between three traits and range change: ranges tended to increase for habitat generalists, species that oviposit in the vegetation above ground, and for those with a southerly distribution. These findings accord well with the nature of environmental changes over this period (climatic warming; reductions in the diversity and increases in the height of vegetation). However, the trait effects applied mainly to just two species, Conocephalus discolor and Metrioptera roeselii, which had shown the greatest range increases. Once they were omitted from the analysis, trait effects were no longer statistically significant. Previous studies on these two species emphasised wing-length dimorphism as the key to their success, resulting in a high phenotypic plasticity of dispersal and evolutionary-ecological feedback at their expanding range margins. This, combined with our results, suggests that an unusual combination of traits have enabled these two species to undertake extremely rapid responses to recent environmental changes. The fact that our results are dominated by two species only became apparent through cautious testing of the results’ robustness, not through standard statistical checks. We conclude that trait-based analyses may contribute to the assessment of species responses to environmental change and provide insights into underlying mechanisms, but results need to be interpreted with caution and may have limited predictive power.