The predicted impact of HPV vaccination on male infections and male HPV-related cancers in Australia

Knowledge and willingness towards human Papillomavirus vaccination among the parents and school teachers of eligible girls in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A school-based cross-sectional study

Background

Cervical cancer ranks as the common prevalent cancer, among women worldwide especially impacting low-resource countries. In Bangladesh, this accounts for 12 % of all cancer cases. The development of cancer is closely linked to Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Despite the availability of HPV vaccines, their uptake remains limited in Bangladesh. Thus, this research aims to assess the knowledge and willingness of parents and school teachers regarding HPV vaccination for eligible girls in Bangladesh.

Methodology

This study involved 406 parents and school teachers of girls aged 9-14 years from Dhaka city. A cross-sectional study design was used. Data collection was done through a questionnaire administered by interviewers after pre-testing and refinement for clarity and reliability. Analysis was carried out using Stata 17 software. Chi-square tests and logistic regression were used to uncover associations and predictors related to knowledge levels and willingness.

Results

Findings revealed that a majority of participants (64.04 %) exhibited an understanding of HPV and cervical cancer yet a high percentage (98.28 %) expressed willingness to engage in HPV vaccination initiatives. participants with primary (AOR = 3.306, p < 0.005), secondary (AOR = 8.806, p < 0.001), and higher education (AOR = 5.059, p < 0.001), as well as those from upper-middle-income groups (AOR = 3.038, p < 0.001), had significantly higher knowledge of HPV and cervical cancer.

Conclusion

The research emphasizes lack of knowledge regarding HPV and its vaccination among parents and educators in Bangladesh despite a willingness to vaccinate. These results emphasize the importance of tailored initiatives and better access, to health information to increase HPV vaccine acceptance and lower the incidence of cervical cancer.

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63-67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO's updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

Projected Association of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination With Oropharynx Cancer Incidence in the US, 2020-2045

Importance

Oropharynx cancer (OPC) incidence has increased for several decades in the US. It is unclear when and how this trend will be affected by current HPV vaccination trends.

Objective

To assess the association of HPV vaccination with future OPC incidence in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based age-period-cohort analysis obtained OPC incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program from 69 562 patients 34 to 83 years of age diagnosed with OPC. The HPV vaccination data were obtained from the National Immunization Survey-Teen (60 124 participants) and National Health Interview Survey (16 904 participants). Data were collected from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2017. Age-period-cohort forecasting models projected expected 2018 to 2045 OPC incidence under a counterfactual scenario of no HPV vaccination and current levels of HPV vaccination, stratifying by sex. Data analyses were completed by December 2020.

Exposures

Age- and sex-specific cumulative prevalence of HPV vaccination in 2016 to 2017 projected forward.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Projected OPC incidence and number of OPC cases expected to be prevented by HPV vaccination.

Results

Under current HPV vaccination rates, between 2018 and 2045, OPC incidence is projected to decrease in younger individuals (36-45 years of age: from 1.4 to 0.8 per 100 000 population; 46-55 years of age: from 8.7 to 7.2 per 100 000 population) but continue to increase among older individuals (70-83 years of age: from 16.8 to 29.0 per 100 000 population). The association of HPV vaccination with overall OPC incidence through 2045 will remain modest (no vaccination vs vaccination: 14.3 vs 13.8 per 100 000 population in 2045). By 2045 HPV vaccination is projected to reduce OPC incidence among individuals 36 to 45 years of age (men: 48.1%; women: 42.5%) and 46 to 55 years of age (men: 9.0%; women: 22.6%), but among those 56 years or older, rates are not meaningfully reduced. Between 2018 and 2045, a total of 6334 OPC cases will be prevented by HPV vaccination, of which 88.8% of such cases occur in younger age (≤55 years) groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

According to the projections of this population-based age-period-cohort study, current HPV vaccination rates will have a limited association with overall OPC incidence through 2045 because older individuals who have not yet been vaccinated remain at high risk for OPC. However, reductions in OPC incidence should occur among young and middle-aged adults, the group at lowest risk of diagnosis. These findings forecast a continued shift in the landscape of OPC to an older population.

Could HPV Testing on Self-collected Samples Be Routinely Used in an Organized Cervical Screening Program? A Modeled Analysis

BACKGROUND

Cervical screening on self-collected samples has mainly been considered for targeted use in underscreened women. Updated evidence supports equivalent sensitivity of PCR-based human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on self-collected and clinician-collected samples.

METHODS

Using a well-established model, we compared the lifetime impact on cancer diagnoses and deaths resulting from cervical screening using self-collected samples only, with and without the existing restriction in Australia to women aged 30+ years and ≥2 years overdue, compared with the mainstream program of 5-yearly HPV screening on clinician-collected samples starting at 25 years of age. We conservatively assumed sensitivity of HPV testing on self-collected relative to clinician-collected samples was 0.98. Outcomes were estimated either in the context of HPV vaccination ("routinely vaccinated cohorts;" uptake as in Australia) or in the absence of HPV vaccination ("unvaccinated cohorts").

RESULTS

In unvaccinated cohorts, the health benefits of increased participation from self-collection outweighed the worst case (2%) loss of relative test sensitivity even if only 15% of women, who would not otherwise attend, used it ("additional uptake"). In routinely vaccinated cohorts, population-wide self-collection could be marginally (0.2%-1.0%) less effective at 15% additional uptake but 6.2% to 12.4% more effective at 50% additional uptake. Most (56.6%-65.0%) of the loss in effectiveness in the restricted self-collection pathway in Australia results from the requirement to be 2 or more years overdue.

CONCLUSIONS

Even under pessimistic assumptions, any potential loss in test sensitivity from self-collection is likely outweighed by improved program effectiveness resulting from feasible levels of increased uptake.

IMPACT

Consideration could be given to offering self-collection more widely, potentially as an equal choice for women.See related commentary by Lim, p. 245.

Comparison of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine types and dose schedules for prevention of HPV-related disease in females and males

BACKGROUND

Uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine remains low in many countries, although the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines given as a three-dose schedule are effective in the prevention of precancerous lesions of the cervix in women. Simpler immunisation schedules, such as those with fewer doses, might reduce barriers to vaccination, as may programmes that include males.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the efficacy, immunogenicity, and harms of different dose schedules and different types of HPV vaccines in females and males.

SEARCH METHODS

We conducted electronic searches on 27 September 2018 in Ovid MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (in the Cochrane Library), and Ovid Embase. We also searched the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov (both 27 September 2018), vaccine manufacturer websites, and checked reference lists from an index of HPV studies and other relevant systematic reviews.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with no language restriction. We considered studies if they enrolled HIV-negative males or females aged 9 to 26 years, or HIV-positive males or females of any age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used methods recommended by Cochrane. We use the term 'control' to refer to comparator products containing an adjuvant or active vaccine and 'placebo' to refer to products that contain no adjuvant or active vaccine. Most primary outcomes in this review were clinical outcomes. However, for comparisons comparing dose schedules, the included RCTs were designed to measure antibody responses (i.e. immunogenicity) as the primary outcome, rather than clinical outcomes, since it is unethical to collect cervical samples from girls under 16 years of age. We analysed immunogenicity outcomes (i.e. geometric mean titres) with ratios of means, clinical outcomes (e.g. cancer and intraepithelial neoplasia) with risk ratios or rate ratios and, for serious adverse events and deaths, we calculated odds ratios. We rated the certainty of evidence with GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 20 RCTs with 31,940 participants. The length of follow-up in the included studies ranged from seven months to five years. Two doses versus three doses of HPV vaccine in 9- to 15-year-old females Antibody responses after two-dose and three-dose HPV vaccine schedules were similar after up to five years of follow-up (4 RCTs, moderate- to high-certainty evidence). No RCTs collected clinical outcome data. Evidence about serious adverse events in studies comparing dose schedules was of very low-certainty owing to imprecision and indirectness (three doses 35/1159; two doses 36/1158; 4 RCTs). One death was reported in the three-dose group (1/898) and none in the two-dose group (0/899) (low-certainty evidence). Interval between doses of HPV vaccine in 9- to 14-year-old females and males Antibody responses were stronger with a longer interval (6 or 12 months) between the first two doses of HPV vaccine than a shorter interval (2 or 6 months) at up to three years of follow-up (4 RCTs, moderate- to high-certainty evidence). No RCTs collected data about clinical outcomes. Evidence about serious adverse events in studies comparing intervals was of very low-certainty, owing to imprecision and indirectness. No deaths were reported in any of the studies (0/1898, 3 RCTs, low-certainty evidence). HPV vaccination of 10- to 26-year-old males In one RCT there was moderate-certainty evidence that quadrivalent HPV vaccine, compared with control, reduced the incidence of external genital lesions (control 36 per 3081 person-years; quadrivalent 6 per 3173 person-years; rate ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.38; 6254 person-years) and anogenital warts (control 28 per 2814 person-years; quadrivalent 3 per 2831 person-years; rate ratio 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.38; 5645 person-years). The quadrivalent vaccine resulted in more injection-site adverse events, such as pain or redness, than control (537 versus 601 per 1000; risk ratio (RR) 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18, 3895 participants, high-certainty evidence). There was very low-certainty evidence from two RCTs about serious adverse events with quadrivalent vaccine (control 12/2588; quadrivalent 8/2574), and about deaths (control 11/2591; quadrivalent 3/2582), owing to imprecision and indirectness. Nonavalent versus quadrivalent vaccine in 9- to 26-year-old females and males Three RCTs were included; one in females aged 9- to 15-years (n = 600), one in females aged 16- to 26-years (n = 14,215), and one in males aged 16- to 26-years (n = 500). The RCT in 16- to 26-year-old females reported clinical outcomes. There was little to no difference in the incidence of the combined outcome of high-grade cervical epithelial neoplasia, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cervical cancer between the HPV vaccines (quadrivalent 325/6882, nonavalent 326/6871; OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.16; 13,753 participants; high-certainty evidence). The other two RCTs did not collect data about clinical outcomes. There were slightly more local adverse events with the nonavalent vaccine (905 per 1000) than the quadrivalent vaccine (846 per 1000) (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.08; 3 RCTs, 15,863 participants; high-certainty evidence). Comparative evidence about serious adverse events in the three RCTs (nonavalent 243/8234, quadrivalent 192/7629; OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.14 to 2.61) was of low certainty, owing to imprecision and indirectness. HPV vaccination for people living with HIV Seven RCTs reported on HPV vaccines in people with HIV, with two small trials that collected data about clinical outcomes. Antibody responses were higher following vaccination with either bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine than with control, and these responses could be demonstrated to have been maintained for up to 24 months in children living with HIV (low-certainty evidence). The evidence about clinical outcomes and harms for HPV vaccines in people with HIV is very uncertain (low- to very low-certainty evidence), owing to imprecision and indirectness.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The immunogenicity of two-dose and three-dose HPV vaccine schedules, measured using antibody responses in young females, is comparable. The quadrivalent vaccine probably reduces external genital lesions and anogenital warts in males compared with control. The nonavalent and quadrivalent vaccines offer similar protection against a combined outcome of cervical, vaginal, and vulval precancer lesions or cancer. In people living with HIV, both the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines result in high antibody responses. For all comparisons of alternative HPV vaccine schedules, the certainty of the body of evidence about serious adverse events reported during the study periods was low or very low, either because the number of events was low, or the evidence was indirect, or both. Post-marketing surveillance is needed to continue monitoring harms that might be associated with HPV vaccines in the population, and this evidence will be incorporated in future updates of this review. Long-term observational studies are needed to determine the effectiveness of reduced-dose schedules against HPV-related cancer endpoints, and whether adopting these schedules improves vaccine coverage rates.

Decline in vaccine-type human papillomavirus prevalence in young men from a Midwest metropolitan area of the United States over the six years after vaccine introduction

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to determine changes in human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence among young men from a Midwest metropolitan area over the six years after vaccine introduction, including HPV prevalence in men overall, in vaccinated men to examine vaccine impact and in unvaccinated men to examine herd protection. An exploratory aim was to examine associations between number of vaccine doses and HPV prevalence.

METHODS

Men aged 14-26 years reporting male-female and/or male-male sexual contact were recruited from a primary care clinic, sexually transmitted disease clinic, and community setting during two waves of data collection: 2013-2014 (N = 400) and 2016-2017 (N = 347). Participants completed a questionnaire and were tested for penile, scrotal and anal HPV. Changes in prevalence of any (≥1 type) and vaccine-type HPV (HPV6, 11, 16, and/or 18) were examined using propensity score weighted logistic regression. Associations between number of doses and HPV infection were determined using chi-square tests and logistic regression.

RESULTS

The proportion of men with a history of ≥1 HPV vaccine doses increased from 23% to 44% (p < 0.001) from waves 1 to 2. After propensity score weighting, infection with ≥1 vaccine-type HPV significantly decreased among all men (29% to 20%; 31% decrease; odds ratio [OR] = 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.44-0.88) and unvaccinated men (32% to 21%; 36% decrease; OR = 0.56, 95%CI = 0.34-0.86); there was a non-significant decrease (21%) among vaccinated men. Associations between number of doses and HPV prevalence were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of vaccine-type HPV decreased among all, vaccinated, and unvaccinated men six years after HPV vaccine recommendation, supporting vaccine impact and herd protection. Decreases in vaccine-type HPV in all men appear to be due to decreases in unvaccinated men, suggesting that the full impact of vaccination has yet to be realized. Continued monitoring and efforts to vaccinate men prior to sexual initiation are warranted.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in teenage heterosexual males following the implementation of female and male school-based vaccination in Australia: 2014-2017

BACKGROUND

Australia introduced a school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program for females aged 12-13 years in 2007, with a three-year catch-up to age 26; and for boys aged 12-13 from 2013, with a two-year catch-up to age 15. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of penile HPV between teenage heterosexual males in cohorts eligible or non-eligible for the school-based male vaccination program.

METHODS

Between 2014 and 2017, sexually active heterosexual males aged 17-19 were recruited from sexual health centres and community sources across Australia. Males provided a self-collected penile swab for 37 HPV genotypes using Roche Linear Array and completed a questionnaire. We calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of HPV between males in two periods: 2014-2015 (preceding implementation of school-based male vaccination) and 2016-2017 (eligible for school-based male vaccination). Self-reported vaccine doses were confirmed with doses reported to the National HPV Vaccination Program Register.

RESULTS

Overall, 152 males were recruited in 2014-2015 and 146 in 2016-2017. Numbers of female sex partners and condom use did not differ between the two periods. The prevalence of quadrivalent vaccine-preventable [4vHPV] genotypes (6/11/16/18) was low in both periods (2.6% [2014-15] versus 0.7% [2016-17]; p = 0.371; aPR 0.28 [95% CI: 0.03-2.62]). Compared with men in 2014-2015, men in 2016-2017 had a lower prevalence of any of the 37 HPV genotypes tested (21.7% versus 11.6%; aPR 0.62 [95% CI: 0.36-1.07]) and any of the 13 high-risk genotypes tested (15.8% versus 7.5%; aPR 0.59 [95% CI: 0.30-1.19]). Prevalence of low-risk HPV genotypes did not differ between the two periods. Of the males recruited in 2016-2017, 55% had received ≥1 vaccine dose.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of 4vHPV genotypes among teenage heterosexual males in both cohorts was low, presumably due to herd protection from the female-only vaccination program. Further studies are required to determine the impact of universal HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence in males.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection worldwide. It causes several health consequences, in particular accounting for the majority of cervical cancer cases in women. In the United Kingdom, a vaccination campaign targeting 12-year-old girls started in 2008; this campaign has been successful, with high uptake and reduced HPV prevalence observed in vaccinated cohorts. Recently, attention has focused on vaccinating both sexes, due to HPV-related diseases in males (particularly for high-risk men who have sex with men) and an equity argument over equalising levels of protection.

METHODS

We constructed an epidemiological model for HPV transmission in the UK, accounting for nine of the most common HPV strains. We complemented this with an economic model to determine the likely health outcomes (healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years) for individuals from the epidemiological model. We then tested vaccination with the three HPV vaccines currently available, vaccinating either girls alone or both sexes. For each strategy we calculated the threshold price per vaccine dose, i.e. the maximum amount paid for the added health benefits of vaccination to be worth the cost of each vaccine dose. We calculated results at 3.5% discounting, and also 1.5%, to consider the long-term health effects of HPV infection.

RESULTS

At 3.5% discounting, continuing to vaccinate girls remains highly cost-effective compared to halting vaccination, with threshold dose prices of £56-£108. Vaccination of girls and boys is less cost-effective (£25-£53). Compared to vaccinating girls only, adding boys to the programme is not cost-effective, with negative threshold prices (-£6 to -£3) due to the costs of administration. All threshold prices increase when using 1.5% discounting, and adding boys becomes cost-effective (£36-£47). These results are contingent on the UK's high vaccine uptake; for lower uptake rates, adding boys (at the same uptake rate) becomes more cost effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating girls is extremely cost-effective compared with no vaccination, vaccinating both sexes is less so. Adding boys to an already successful girls-only programme has a low cost-effectiveness, as males have high protection through herd immunity. If future health effects are weighted more heavily, threshold prices increase and vaccination becomes cost-effective.

Reviewing the role of human papillomavirus in oral cancer using the Bradford Hill criteria of causation

Human papillomavirus is a well-established risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer, although its role in oral cancer is still debated. Inconclusive evidence of its role in oral cancer is due to conflicting data arising from methodological differences, mostly due to the use of diagnostic tests with varying sensitivity and specificity. In addition, there is a lack of experimental data linking HPV to oral cancer. Recent epidemiological studies provide data on HPV prevalence in oral squamous cell carcinoma and other potentially malignant oral disorders. Further, molecular data from in vivo and in vitro models have led to new insights into the role of human papillomavirus in oral cancer. The clinical significance of identifying HPV as an etiology for oral squamous cell carcinoma is that if proven, vaccination could be an effective prevention tool. Further, like oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, prognostic differences may exist between human papillomavirus positive and negative oral squamous cell carcinoma. This manuscript reviews data from the published literature using Bradford Hill criteria of causation to assess the role of human papillomavirus in oral cancer. Due to the advancement in molecular biology, the requirements of each of the Bradford Hill criteria of causation are modified to include integrated data from both epidemiological studies and experimental studies exploring molecular carcinogenesis.

Cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV-vaccination in Sweden, accounting for herd-immunity and sexual behaviour

INTRODUCTION

The aim was to assess cost-effectiveness of expanding the Swedish HPV-vaccination program to include preadolescent boys, by comparing health-effects and costs of HPV-related disease, with a sex-neutral vaccination program versus only vaccinating girls.

METHODS

We used a dynamic compartmental model to simulate the burden of HPV16/18-related disease in Sweden, accounting for indirect effects of vaccination through herd-immunity. The model accounted for sexual behaviour, such as age preferences and men who have sex with men. The main outcome was number of individuals with HPV-related cancers (cervical, genital, anal and oropharyngeal cancer) and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Costs included in the analysis were those incurred when treating HPV-related cancer and CIN, production losses during sick-leave, and acquisition and administration of vaccine. Health effects were measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The time horizon was set to 100 years, and both effects and costs were discounted by 3% annually. Health effects and costs were accumulated over the time horizon and used to create an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

A sex-neutral vaccination program would reduce HPV-related cancer and CIN, both due to direct effects among vaccinated as well as through herd-immunity, further decreasing HPV-related cancer burden annually by around 60 cases among men and women respectively in steady-state. The cost per gained QALY was estimated to 40,000 euro. Applying the procurement price of 2017, sex-neutral vaccination was dominant.

CONCLUSION

Introducing a sex-neutral HPV-vaccination program would be good value for money also in Sweden where there this 80% coverage in the current HPV-vaccination program for preadolescent girls. The cost-effectiveness of a sex-neutral program is highly dependent on the price of the vaccine, the lower the price the more favourable it is to also vaccinate boys.

Human Papillomavirus and Oropharyngeal Cancer Among Indigenous Australians: Protocol for a Prevalence Study of Oral-Related Human Papillomavirus and Cost-Effectiveness of Prevention

Background

Oropharyngeal cancer is an important, understudied cancer affecting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. The human papillomavirus (HPV) is a significant risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Current generation HPV vaccines are effective against the 2 most common types of high-risk HPVs in cancer (hrHPVs 16/18).

Objectives

This study aims (1) to yield population estimates of oncogenic genotypes of HPV in the mouth and oropharynx of defined Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; (2) to estimate the proportion of oropharyngeal cancer attributable to HPV among these Australian citizens; (3) to estimate the impact of HPV vaccination as currently implemented on rates of oropharyngeal cancer among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians; and (4) taking into account impact on oropharyngeal as well as cervical cancer, to evaluate efficacy and cost-effectiveness of targeted extended HPV vaccination to older ages, among our study population.

Methods

Our study design and operation is straightforward, with minimal impost on participants. It involves testing for carriage of hrHPV in the mouth and oropharynx among 1000 Aboriginal South Australians by simple saliva collection and with follow-up at 12 and 24 months, collection of sexual history at baseline, collection of information for estimating health state (quality-of-life) utilities at baseline, genotyping of viruses, predictive outcome and cost-effectiveness modeling, data interpretation and development of vaccination, and follow-up management strategies driven by the Aboriginal community.

Results

Participant recruitment for this study commenced in February 2018 and enrollment is ongoing. The first results are expected to be submitted for publication in 2019.

Conclusions

The project will have a number of important outcomes. Synthesis of evidence will enable generation of estimates of the burden of oropharyngeal cancer among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians and indicate the likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of prevention. This will be important for health services planning, and for Aboriginal health worker and patient education. The results will also point to important areas where research efforts should be focused to improve outcomes in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians with oropharyngeal cancer. There will be a strong focus on community engagement and accounting for the preferences of individuals and the community in control of HPV-related cancers. The project has international relevance in that it will be the first to systematically evaluate prevention of both cervical and oropharyngeal cancer in a high-risk Indigenous population taking into account all population, testing, and surveillance options.

Registered Report Identifier

RR1-10.2196/10503

Population-Level Herd Protection of Males From a Female Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Program: Evidence from Australian Serosurveillance

Background

Australia instituted funded female human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization in 2007, followed by a targeted male vaccination program in 2013. To date, Australia is one of only several countries with a funded male HPV immunization program. In 2012-2013, we conducted a survey of HPV seroprevalence in males to assess whether or not a herd impact of female vaccination could be observed.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of de-identified residual diagnostic test serum samples from males aged 15-39 years from laboratories in 3 Australian states and calculated the proportion seropositive to HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18. We compared type-specific results by age group against those from a baseline 2005 Australian HPV serosurvey.

Results

There were decreases in proportion seropositive for every HPV type across all age groups, many statistically significant. The largest decrease was observed for HPV-11, with decreases of 8- and 9-fold for ages 20-29 and 30-39 years, respectively. Despite substantial reductions in seroprevalence, at least 9% of males were seropositive for at least 1 of the 4 HPV types.

Conclusions

This is the first serosurvey confirming broad population-level impact in males from female HPV vaccination. Our research may assist policy makers considering implementing HPV vaccination programs.

Human papillomavirus vaccination and the role of herd effects in future cancer control planning: a review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine herd effects are the indirect protection that vaccinated persons provide to those who remain susceptible to infection, due to the reduced transmission of infections. Herd effects have been an important part of the discourse on how to best implement human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and prevent HPV-related diseases.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the theory of HPV vaccine herd effects derived from mathematical models, give an account of observed HPV vaccine herd effects worldwide, and examine the implications of vaccine herd effects for future cervical cancer screening efforts.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

HPV vaccine herd effects improve the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating preadolescent girls, but contribute to making gender-neutral vaccination less economically efficient. Vaccination coverage and sexual mixing patterns by age are strong determinants of herd effects. Many countries worldwide are starting to observe reductions in HPV-related outcomes likely attributable to herd effects, most notably declining anogenital warts in young men, and declining HPV-16/18 infection prevalence in young unvaccinated women. Policy makers making recommendations for cervical cancer screening will have to consider HPV vaccination coverage and herd effects, as these will affect the positive predictive value of screening and the risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated women.

How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening.

A study of physicians' experiences with recommending HPV vaccines to adolescent boys

Assessing physicians' experiences in HPV vaccine recommendation and delivery to adolescent boys is essential to providing an understanding of the issues of vaccine acceptance and an insight for policymakers to enhance HPV vaccinations among adolescent boys. Between January and April 2014 a mail survey was conducted using physicians in Malaysia known to provide either one or both HPV vaccine (Gardasil and Cervarix) immunisation services. A total of 357 completed questionnaires were received (response rate 22.5%). Of these, 335 physicians see adolescent boys aged 11 to 18 years old in their practice. Only 26.3% (n = 88) recommended the HPV vaccine to these boys. A total of 46.6% (n = 41) have successfully given the HPV vaccine to adolescent boys. A lack of proper guidelines from the health authorities regarding the recommendation of HPV vaccine to the boys (37.2%) and a lack of awareness of the availability of the vaccine for boys (32.8%) were the most commonly cited reasons for non-recommendation. Impact statement Recommending the HPV vaccine for adolescent boys remains a challenge for physicians. Our study provides evidence of challenges and barriers faced by Malaysian physicians who recommend the HPV vaccines (Gardasil and Cervarix) in their practices. In this study, physicians reported HPV vaccine uptake by adolescent boys was very poor. A lack of proper guidelines from the health authorities regarding the recommendation of HPV vaccine to boys and a lack of awareness of the availability of the vaccine for boys were the most commonly cited reasons for non-recommendation. Physicians viewed that support and encouragement from the health authorities are needed to promote the recommendation of the HPV vaccine to adolescent boys. Physicians were also of the opinion that the lay public should be educated about the availability of the HPV vaccine for boys, and its benefits, safety and efficacy, and the high susceptibility of boys to getting HPV infections. The findings provide insights that could be helpful to policymakers or high-level decision-makers of the potential strategies to enhance HPV uptake among adolescent boys.

Human papillomavirus vaccination: the population impact

We currently have the knowledge and experience to prevent much of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related disease burden globally. In many countries where prophylactic HPV vaccination programs have been adopted as highly effective public health programs with good vaccine coverage, we are already seeing, in real-world settings, reduction of vaccine-related HPV-type infections, genital warts and cervical pre-cancers with potential reductions in vulvar, vaginal and anal pre-cancers. Moreover, we are seeing a change in cervical screening paradigms, as HPV-based screening programs now have strong evidence to support their use as more sensitive ways to detect underlying cervical abnormalities, as compared with conventional cervical cytology. This article describes the impact of prophylactic vaccination on these outcomes and in settings where these vaccines have been implemented in national immunisation programs. Given the successes seen to date and the availability of essential tools, there has been a global push to ensure that every woman has access to effective cervical screening and every girl has the opportunity for primary prevention through vaccination. A gender-neutral approach by offering vaccination to young boys has also been adopted by some countries and is worthy of consideration given that HPV-related cancers also affect males. Furthermore, vaccination of young boys has the advantage of reducing the risk of HPV transmission to sexual partners, lowering the infectious pool of HPV in the general population and ultimately HPV-related diseases for both genders. Therefore, it is appropriate that all countries consider and promote national guidelines and programs to prevent HPV-related diseases.

Impact of the Australian National Cervical Screening Program in women of different ages

OBJECTIVES

The Australian National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) will transition in 2017 from cytology-based screening every two years, starting from age 18-20 years, to HPV-based screening every 5 years, starting from age 25. To examine the impact of the program before this transition we analysed trends in the incidence of cervical cancer, by age and histological subtype.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

National cervical cancer incidence data, 1982-2010.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Standardised rate ratios (SRR) for 3-yearly average cervical cancer incidence, relative to the rate during 1988-1990, by age group and histological type.

RESULTS

Between 1988-1990 and 2008-2010, cervical cancer incidence fell substantially in women aged 25-49 (SRR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.51-0.59), 50-69 (SRR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.51) and 70 years or more (SRR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.43-0.58), but not in women aged 20-24 years (SRR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.46-1.05). These declines were primarily driven by drops in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in women aged 25-49 (SRR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.46-0.55), 50-69 (SRR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.35-0.45) and more than 70 years (SRR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.36-0.51). However, rates have now plateaued in women aged 25-69 years. The incidence of adenocarcinoma did not consistently decline across the program period in any age group. The incidence of neither SCC (SRR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.55-1.51) nor adenocarcinoma (SRR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.35-2.40) declined in women aged 20-24 years.

CONCLUSION

Although women aged 20-24 years have been included in the NCSP since its inception, no significant impact on cervical cancer incidence was observed in this age group. The NCSP has had a substantial impact on SCC and overall cervical cancer incidence in women aged 25 years and over. Its impact on the incidence of adenocarcinoma, in contrast, has been limited.

Human Papillomavirus Associated Cancers of the Head and Neck: An Australian Perspective

Human papillomavirus (HPV) associated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs), have become a serious global health problem. Despite decreases in HPV-negative HNSCCs, the prevalence of HPV-positive HNSCCs has significantly increased. HPV-positive cancers are associated with superior survival outcomes when compared to HPV-negative cancers, which appears likely to be associated with differences in the molecular pathogenesis of the two diseases. While therapies are still problematic, the current HPV vaccine programs hold a promise for the primary prevention of HPV-related HNSCCs and since Australia was the first to introduce a nationwide HPV vaccine program, it is in a unique position to observe the effects of the vaccine on HNSCCs. This review discusses the epidemiological trends associated with HPV in HNSCC, with reference to the differences between HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCCs and the prevention potential of HPV vaccines.

Optimal Management Strategies for Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Screening: Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation for the National Cervical Screening Program in Australia

BACKGROUND

Several countries are implementing a transition to HPV testing for cervical screening in response to the introduction of HPV vaccination and evidence indicating that HPV screening is more effective than cytology. In Australia, a 2017 transition from 2-yearly conventional cytology in 18-20 to 69 years to 5-yearly primary HPV screening in 25 to 74 years will involve partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 with direct referral to colposcopy for this higher risk group. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal management of women positive for other high-risk HPV types (not 16/18) ('OHR HPV').

METHODS

We used a dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening to determine the optimal management of women positive for OHR HPV. We assumed cytology triage testing was used to inform management in this group and that those with high-grade cytology would be referred to colposcopy and those with negative cytology would receive 12-month surveillance. For those with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology (considered to be a single low-grade category in Australia incorporating ASC-US and LSIL), we evaluated (1) the 20-year risk of invasive cervical cancer assuming this group are referred for 12-month follow-up vs. colposcopy, and compared this to the risk in women with low-grade cytology under the current program (i.e. an accepted benchmark risk for 12-month follow-up in Australia); (2) the population-level impact of the whole program, assuming this group are referred to 12-month surveillance vs. colposcopy; and (3) the cost-effectiveness of immediate colposcopy compared to 12-month follow-up. Evaluation was performed both for HPV-unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination (coverage ~72%).

FINDINGS

The estimated 20-year risk of cervical cancer is ≤1.0% at all ages if this group are referred to colposcopy vs. ≤1.2% if followed-up in 12 months, both of which are lower than the ≤2.6% benchmark risk in women with low-grade cytology in the current program (who are returned for 12-month follow-up). At the population level, immediate colposcopy referral provides an incremental 1-3% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared with 12-month follow-up, but this is in the context of a predicted 24-36% reduction associated with the new HPV screening program compared to the current cytology-based program. Furthermore, immediate colposcopy substantially increases the predicted number of colposcopies, with >650 additional colposcopies required to avert each additional case of cervical cancer compared to 12-month follow-up. Compared to 12-month follow-up, immediate colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$104,600/LYS (95%CrI:A$100,100-109,100) in unvaccinated women and A$117,100/LYS (95%CrI:A$112,300-122,000) in cohorts offered vaccination [Indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: A$50,000/LYS].

CONCLUSIONS

In primary HPV screening programs, partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or high-grade triage cytology in OHR HPV positive women can be used to refer the highest risk group to colposcopy, but 12-month follow-up for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology is associated with a low risk of developing cervical cancer. Direct referral to colposcopy for this group would be associated with a substantial increase in colposcopy referrals and the associated harms, and is also cost-ineffective; thus, 12-month surveillance for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology provides the best balance between benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models

BACKGROUND

Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]).

FINDINGS

16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46-0·68) and 0·36 (0·28-0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90-1·00) and 0·83 (0·75-1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13-0·32) and 0·35 (0·27-0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00-0·10) and 0·16 (0·01-0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years).

INTERPRETATION

Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

The Expanded Impact of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine

Human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the United States. Some infections will result in anogenital warts and anogenital or oropharyngeal cancers. Preventing HPV infection is a public health priority to reduce cancer and HPV-associated complications. Prevention through vaccination is the most cost-effective and lifesaving intervention to decrease the burden of HPV-related cancers and other HPV-associated diseases. It is critical for pediatricians to make a strong recommendation for early and timely vaccination and completion of the 3-dose series. The goal of early vaccination is to immunize before first exposure to HPV virus.

Human papillomavirus and gastrointestinal cancer: A review

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections worldwide. Exposure to HPV is very common, and an estimated 65%-100% of sexually active adults are exposed to HPV in their lifetime. The majority of HPV infections are asymptomatic, but there is a 10% chance that individuals will develop a persistent infection and have an increased risk of developing a carcinoma. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has found that the following cancer sites have a strong causal relationship with HPV: cervix uteri, penis, vulva, vagina, anus and oropharynx, including the base of the tongue and the tonsils. However, studies of the aetiological role of HPV in colorectal and esophageal malignancies have conflicting results. The aim of this review was to organize recent evidence and issues about the association between HPV infection and gastrointestinal tumours with a focus on esophageal, colorectal and anal cancers. The ultimate goal was to highlight possible implications for prognosis and prevention.

Transitioning from cytology-based screening to HPV-based screening at longer intervals: implications for resource use

Background

Following a recent major review of cervical screening, from 2017 Australia will transition from two-yearly cytology-based screening to five-yearly primary HPV screening, with partial genotyping and direct referral for HPV 16/18 and LBC triage for other oncogenic types. Switching to a longer screening interval will result in transitional fluctuations for volumes of tests before a 'steady state' is reached for the new test volumes. This study aimed to quantify the impact of this transition on year-to-year volumes of screening and follow-up tests and procedures.

Methods

Number of women screened and test volumes from 2015 to 2032 were estimated via a detailed simulation model which explicitly modelled varying screening and HPV vaccination exposure in individual birth cohorts, and fully incorporated how a relatively rapid screening program switch in 2017 would affect both women attending for routine screening and those in surveillance following an abnormality.

Results

Numbers of women screened and HPV tests are predicted to fluctuate in the first screening rounds as a result of the transition to a longer screening interval (mean women screened and HPV tests 1.4 million in the first 5-year period, year-to-year fluctuation > +/−50 %; mean 1.5 million women/HPV tests in third 5-year period, fluctuation approximately +/−25 %). The extent to which this fluctuation was predicted to carry through to secondary tests/procedures was less (fluctuations of +25 %/-31 % in first 5-year period; decreasing to +8 %/-10 % by third round). HPV vaccination is predicted to counteract increases in high grade cytology results, colposcopies and precancer treatments which would otherwise occur due to population increases. Precancer treatments are predicted to drop below 2015 levels within the first few years of program switchover. Mean colposcopy volumes are predicted to be similar to 2015 levels by the third round of HPV-based screening, and also be 25–40 % lower than would have occurred in the absence of HPV vaccination.

Conclusions

While numbers of women attending for screening and HPV tests are anticipated to initially fluctuate as a result of the transition to a longer recommended interval, there is expected to be less fluctuation in follow-up tests and procedures; however these will still have a significant impact on operational aspects of the screening program. Detailed modelling of the switchover process gave important insights into how volumes would be affected.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-016-1375-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HPV vaccination: acceptance and influencing factors among young men in Germany

AIMS

This study aims to determine the factors that influence the acceptance of the HPV vaccination among German males.

PATIENT & METHODS

In 2014, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in men aged 15-25 years. A questionnaire was mailed to male trainees of the Bayerische Motorenwerke AG (BMW) insured at the BMW health insurance company.

RESULTS

The response rate was 10.8%. Of the 378 included men, 74.1% would agree to receive HPV vaccination. Most men primarily consult their physician for health-related topics, but 92.9% had never been informed about HPV infection, risk factors and prevention methods by their doctor.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate a high acceptance of male HPV vaccination. Education about HPV infection is low and should be intensified by medical professionals.

Direct benefit of vaccinating boys along with girls against oncogenic human papillomavirus: bayesian evidence synthesis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the reduction in the vaccine preventable burden of cancer in men if boys are vaccinated along with girls against oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV).

DESIGN

Bayesian evidence synthesis approach used to evaluate the impact of vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 on the burden of anal, penile, and oropharyngeal carcinomas among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men. The reduced transmission of vaccine-type HPV from vaccination of girls was assumed to lower the risk of HPV associated cancer in all men but not to affect the excess risk of HPV associated cancers among men who have sex with men.

SETTING

General population in the Netherlands.

INTERVENTION

Inclusion of boys aged 12 into HPV vaccination programmes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and numbers needed to vaccinate.

RESULTS

Before HPV vaccination, 14.9 (95% credible interval 12.2 to 18.1) QALYs per thousand men were lost to vaccine preventable cancers associated with HPV in the Netherlands. This burden would be reduced by 37% (28% to 48%) if the vaccine uptake among girls remains at the current level of 60%. To prevent one additional case of cancer among men, 795 boys (660 to 987) would need to be vaccinated; with tumour specific numbers for anal, penile, and oropharyngeal cancer of 2162, 3486, and 1975, respectively. The burden of HPV related cancer in men would be reduced by 66% (53% to 805) if vaccine uptake among girls increases to 90%. In that case, 1735 boys (1240 to 2900) would need to be vaccinated to prevent an additional case; with tumour specific numbers for anal, penile, and oropharyngeal cancer of 2593, 29107, and 6484, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Men will benefit indirectly from vaccination of girls but remain at risk of cancers associated with HPV. The incremental benefit of vaccinating boys when vaccine uptake among girls is high is driven by the prevention of anal carcinomas, which underscores the relevance of HPV prevention efforts for men who have sex with men.

Human papillomavirus vaccines: key factors in planning cost-effective vaccination programs

Prophylactic HPV vaccines hold tremendous potential for reducing cervical and non-cervical HPV-related disease burden worldwide. To maximize on this potential, policy officials will need to carefully consider available evidence, existing uncertainties and the cost-effectiveness of mass HPV vaccination programs in the context of their respective nations and/or regions. Proper harmonization of primary prevention strategies with secondary prevention efforts will also be important. Decisions following such considerations may ultimately depend on programmatic objectives, infrastructure and available resources. Continued research and surveillance surrounding HPV vaccination will be essential for filling current knowledge gaps, and forcing ongoing reconsiderations of selected immunization strategies.

Incremental benefits of male HPV vaccination: accounting for inequality in population uptake

BACKGROUND

Vaccines against HPV16/18 are approved for use in females and males but most countries currently have female-only programs. Cultural and geographic factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake might also influence sexual partner choice; this might impact post-vaccination outcomes. Our aims were to examine the population-level impact of adding males to HPV vaccination programs if factors influencing vaccine uptake also influence partner choice, and additionally to quantify how this changes the post-vaccination distribution of disease between subgroups, using incident infections as the outcome measure.

METHODS

A dynamic model simulated vaccination of pre-adolescents in two scenarios: 1) vaccine uptake was correlated with factors which also affect sexual partner choice ("correlated"); 2) vaccine uptake was unrelated to these factors ("unrelated"). Coverage and degree of heterogeneity in uptake were informed by observed data from Australia and the USA. Population impact was examined via the effect on incident HPV16 infections. The rate ratio for post-vaccination incident HPV16 in the lowest compared to the highest coverage subgroup (RR(L)) was calculated to quantify between-group differences in outcomes.

RESULTS

The population-level incremental impact of adding males was lower if vaccine uptake was "correlated", however the difference in population-level impact was extremely small (<1%) in the Australia and USA scenarios, even under the conservative and extreme assumption that subgroups according to coverage did not mix at all sexually. At the subgroup level, "correlated" female-only vaccination resulted in RR(L)= 1.9 (Australia) and 1.5 (USA) in females, and RR(L)= 1.5 and 1.3 in males. "Correlated" both-sex vaccination increased RR(L) to 4.2 and 2.1 in females and 3.9 and 2.0 in males in the Australia and USA scenarios respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The population-level incremental impact of male vaccination is unlikely to be substantially impacted by feasible levels of heterogeneity in uptake. However, these findings emphasize the continuing importance of prioritizing high coverage across all groups in HPV vaccination programs in terms of achieving equality of outcomes.

Is expanding HPV vaccination programs to include school-aged boys likely to be value-for-money: a cost-utility analysis in a country with an existing school-girl program

Background

Similar to many developed countries, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is provided only to girls in New Zealand and coverage is relatively low (47% in school-aged girls for dose 3). Some jurisdictions have already extended HPV vaccination to school-aged boys. Thus, exploration of the cost-utility of adding boys’ vaccination is relevant. We modeled the incremental health gain and costs for extending the current girls-only program to boys, intensifying the current girls-only program to achieve 73% coverage, and extension of the intensive program to boys.

Methods

A Markov macro-simulation model, which accounted for herd immunity, was developed for an annual cohort of 12-year-olds in 2011 and included the future health states of: cervical cancer, pre-cancer (CIN I to III), genital warts, and three other HPV-related cancers. In each state, health sector costs, including additional health costs from extra life, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were accumulated. The model included New Zealand data on cancer incidence and survival, and other cause mortality (all by sex, age, ethnicity and deprivation).

Results

At an assumed local willingness-to-pay threshold of US$29,600, vaccination of 12-year-old boys to achieve the current coverage for girls would not be cost-effective, at US$61,400/QALY gained (95% UI $29,700 to $112,000; OECD purchasing power parities) compared to the current girls-only program, with an assumed vaccine cost of US$59 (NZ$113). This was dominated though by the intensified girls-only program; US$17,400/QALY gained (95% UI: dominant to $46,100). Adding boys to this intensified program was also not cost-effective; US$128,000/QALY gained, 95% UI: $61,900 to $247,000).

Vaccination of boys was not found to be cost-effective, even for additional scenarios with very low vaccine or program administration costs – only when combined vaccine and administration costs were NZ$125 or lower per dose was vaccination of boys cost-effective.

Conclusions

These results suggest that adding boys to the girls-only HPV vaccination program in New Zealand is highly unlikely to be cost-effective. In order for vaccination of males to become cost-effective in New Zealand, vaccine would need to be supplied at very low prices and administration costs would need to be minimised.

Women have a preference for their male partner to be HPV vaccinated

BACKGROUND

Peer influence and social networking can change female adolescent and young adult behavior. Peer influence on preferences for male human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been documented. The primary aim of this study was to determine if women had preferences about male sexual partner HPV vaccination receipt.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A prospective survey of women 18-26 years of age was conducted at an urban university student health clinic. Education about the two HPV vaccines, cervical cancer and genital warts was provided. Women self-reported their demographic and medical history data, as well as their own preferences for HPV vaccine and their preferences for their male partner HPV vaccine using a 5 point Likert scale. 601 women, mean age of 21.5 years (SD 2.4), participated between 2011 and 2012. Nearly 95% of respondents were heterosexual; condoms and contraceptives were used in over half of the population. Regardless of the woman's vaccination status, women had significantly higher (strongly agree/agree) preferences for the male partner being vaccinated with HPV4 than not caring if he was vaccinated (63.6% vs. 13.1%, p<0.001). This preference was repeated for sexual risk factors and past reproductive medical history. Women who received HPV4 compared to those choosing HPV2 had a significantly lower proportion of preferences for not caring if the male partner was vaccinated (13% vs. 22%, p = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

Women preferred a HPV vaccinated male partner. Peer messaging might change the male HPV vaccination uptake.

Mathematical modelling and prediction in infectious disease epidemiology

We discuss to what extent disease transmission models provide reliable predictions. The concept of prediction is delineated as it is understood by modellers, and illustrated by some classic and recent examples. A precondition for a model to provide valid predictions is that the assumptions underlying it correspond to the reality, but such correspondence is always limited—all models are simplifications of reality. A central tenet of the modelling enterprise is what we may call the ‘robustness thesis’: a model whose assumptions approximately correspond to reality will make predictions that are approximately valid. To examine which of the predictions made by a model are trustworthy, it is essential to examine the outcomes of different models. Thus, if a highly simplified model makes a prediction, and if the same or a very similar prediction is made by a more elaborate model that includes some mechanisms or details that the first model did not, then we gain some confidence that the prediction is robust. An important benefit derived from mathematical modelling activity is that it demands transparency and accuracy regarding our assumptions, thus enabling us to test our understanding of the disease epidemiology by comparing model results and observed patterns. Models can also assist in decision-making by making projections regarding important issues such as intervention-induced changes in the spread of disease.

Cost-effectiveness and equity impacts of three HPV vaccination programmes for school-aged girls in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

As with many high-income countries, vaccination coverage against human papilloma virus (HPV) infection is not high in New Zealand (NZ) at 47% in school-aged girls for three doses. We estimate the health gains, net-cost and cost-effectiveness of the currently implemented HPV national vaccination programme of vaccination dispersed across schools and primary care, and two alternatives: school-based only (assumed coverage as per Australia: 73%), and mandatory school-based vaccination but with opt-out permitted (coverage 93%). We also generate estimates by social group (sex, ethnic and deprivation group).

METHODS

A Markov macro-simulation model was developed for 12-year-old girls and boys in 2011, with future health states of: cervical cancer, pre-cancer (CIN I-III), genital warts, and three other HPV-related cancers (oropharyngeal, anal, vulvar cancer). In each state health sector costs, including additional health sector costs from extra life, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were accumulated.

RESULTS

The current HPV vaccination programme has an estimated cost-effectiveness of NZ$18,800/QALY gained (about US$9700/QALY gained using the OECD's purchasing power parities; 95% UI: US$6900 to $33,700) compared to the status quo in NZ prior to 2008 (no vaccination, screening alone). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of an intensive school-based only programme of girls, compared to the current situation, was US$33,000/QALY gained. Mandatory vaccination appeared least cost-effective (ICER compared to school-based of US$117,000/QALY gained, but with wide 95% uncertainty limits from $56,000 to $220,000). All interventions generated more QALYs per 12-year-old for Māori (indigenous population) and people living in deprived areas (range 5-25% greater QALYs gained).

INTERPRETATION

A more intensive school-only vaccination programme seems warranted. Reductions in vaccine price will greatly improve cost-effectiveness of all options, possibly making a law for mandatory vaccination optimal from a health sector perspective. All interventions could reduce ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in HPV-related disease.

Testing previous model predictions against new data on human papillomavirus vaccination program outcomes

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), predominantly targeting young females, has been introduced in many countries. Decisions to implement programs, which have involved substantial investment by governments, have in part been based on findings from cost-effectiveness models. Now that vaccination programs have been in place for some years, it is becoming possible to observe their effects, and compare these with model effectiveness predictions made previously.

FINDINGS

Australia introduced a publicly-funded HPV vaccination program in 2007. Recently reported Australian data from a repeat cross-sectional survey showed a substantial (77%) fall in HPV16 prevalence in women aged 18-24 years in 2010-2011, compared to pre-vaccination levels. We have previously published model predictions for the population-wide reduction in incident HPV16 infections post-vaccination in Australia. We compared prior predictions from the same model (including the same assumed uptake rates) for the reduction in HPV16 prevalence in women aged 18-24 years by the end of 2010 with the observed data. Based on modelled vaccine uptake which is consistent with recent data on three-dose uptake (78% at 12-13 years; lower uptake in older catch-up age cohorts), we had predicted a 70% reduction in prevalence in 18-24 year old females by the end of 2010. Based on modelled vaccine uptake consistent with recent national data for two-dose coverage and similar to that reported by women in the cross-sectional study, we had predicted a 79% reduction.

CONCLUSIONS

A close correspondence was observed between the prior model predictions and the recently reported findings on the rapid drop in HPV prevalence in Australia. Because broadly similar effectiveness predictions have been reported from other models used for cost-effectiveness predictions, this provides reassurance that the substantial public investment in HPV vaccination has been grounded in valid estimates of the effects of vaccination.

HPV vaccination and cervical cancer

Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer in women worldwide and often affects women under 40 years with young families. Vaccination against the human papillomavirus (HPV) is a major advance, since it offers primary prevention against the infectious agent that is the main cause of the disease. Two prophylactic vaccines have shown great promise in clinical trials. One of these (Gardasil(®)) contains all four HPV types, offering protection against genital warts (types 6 and 11) as well as cervical cancer (types 16 and 18). The other (Cervarix(®)) contains types 16 and 18, targeting cervical cancer alone, but also has a degree of cross-protection against types 31 and 45, which could significantly increase the level of protection. Adolescent girls remain the primary target of vaccination programmes, but the issues of vaccinating boys and older women are increasingly debated.

Patterns of human papillomavirus DNA and antibody positivity in young males and females, suggesting a site-specific natural course of infection

Background

To monitor the impact of human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 vaccine on HPV infection dynamics in the Netherlands, we started an ongoing study in sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in 2009. Here, we analyze baseline type-specific HPV DNA and HPV-specific antibody positivity rates.

Methods

We enrolled 3569 men and women, 16–24 years of age, from 14 STI clinics, and estimated genital and anal HPV DNA and antibody positivity rates of 7 main carcinogenic HPV types. Generalized estimating equations regression analyses were applied to determine risk factors for, and associations between, type-specific HPV DNA and antibody positivity.

Results

Genital HPV DNA positivity rates were higher in women than in men; anal HPV DNA was especially high in men who have sex with men (MSM). HPV antibody seropositivity rates were also highest in women and MSM. High-risk sexual behavior was predictive of both HPV DNA and antibody positivity. Despite a strong correlation in serological profiles for multiple HPV types, seropositivity was independently associated with homologous HPV DNA detection.

Conclusions

HPV DNA and antibody positivity rates are higher in women and MSM than in heterosexual men, but their association is similar across gender. This suggests a site-specific natural course of infection.

Estimating the clinical benefits of vaccinating boys and girls against HPV-related diseases in Europe

BACKGROUND

HPV is related to a number of cancer types, causing a considerable burden in both genders in Europe. Female vaccination programs can substantially reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases in women and, to some extent, men through herd immunity. The objective was to estimate the incremental benefit of vaccinating boys and girls using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Europe versus girls-only vaccination. Incremental benefits in terms of reduction in the incidence of HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18-related diseases (including cervical, vaginal, vulvar, anal, penile, and head and neck carcinomas and genital warts) were assessed.

METHODS

The analysis was performed using a model constructed in Microsoft(®)Excel, based on a previously-published dynamic transmission model of HPV vaccination and published European epidemiological data on incidence of HPV-related diseases. The incremental benefits of vaccinating 12-year old girls and boys versus girls-only vaccination was assessed (70% vaccine coverage were assumed for both). Sensitivity analyses around vaccine coverage and duration of protection were performed.

RESULTS

Compared with screening alone, girls-only vaccination led to 84% reduction in HPV 16/18-related carcinomas in females and a 61% reduction in males. Vaccination of girls and boys led to a 90% reduction in HPV 16/18-related carcinomas in females and 86% reduction in males versus screening alone. Relative to a girls-only program, vaccination of girls and boys led to a reduction in female and male HPV-related carcinomas of 40% and 65%, respectively and a reduction in the incidence of HPV 6/11-related genital warts of 58% for females and 71% for males versus girls-only vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

In Europe, the vaccination of 12-year old boys and girls against HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18 would be associated with substantial additional clinical benefits in terms of reduced incidence of HPV-related genital warts and carcinomas versus girls-only vaccination. The incremental benefits of adding boys vaccination are highly dependent on coverage in girls. Therefore, further analyses should be performed taking into account the country-specific situation. In addition to clinical benefits, substantial economic benefits are also anticipated and warrant further investigation as do the social and ethical implications of including boys in vaccination programs.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2009, featuring the burden and trends in human papillomavirus(HPV)-associated cancers and HPV vaccination coverage levels

Background

The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updates on cancer incidence and death rates and trends in these outcomes for the United States. This year’s report includes incidence trends for human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated cancers and HPV vaccination (recommended for adolescents aged 11–12 years).

Methods

Data on cancer incidence were obtained from the CDC, NCI, and NAACCR, and data on mortality were obtained from the CDC. Long- (1975/1992–2009) and short-term (2000–2009) trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancers among men and among women were examined by joinpoint analysis. Prevalence of HPV vaccination coverage during 2008 and 2010 and of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing during 2010 were obtained from national surveys.

Results

Death rates continued to decline for all cancers combined for men and women of all major racial and ethnic groups and for most major cancer sites; rates for both sexes combined decreased by 1.5% per year from 2000 to 2009. Overall incidence rates decreased in men but stabilized in women. Incidence rates increased for two HPV-associated cancers (oropharynx, anus) and some cancers not associated with HPV (eg, liver, kidney, thyroid). Nationally, 32.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 30.3% to 33.6%) of girls aged 13 to 17 years in 2010 had received three doses of the HPV vaccine, and coverage was statistically significantly lower among the uninsured (14.1%, 95% CI = 9.4% to 20.6%) and in some Southern states (eg, 20.0% in Alabama [95% CI = 13.9% to 27.9%] and Mississippi [95% CI = 13.8% to 28.2%]), where cervical cancer rates were highest and recent Pap testing prevalence was the lowest.

Conclusions

The overall trends in declining cancer death rates continue. However, increases in incidence rates for some HPV-associated cancers and low vaccination coverage among adolescents underscore the need for additional prevention efforts for HPV-associated cancers, including efforts to increase vaccination coverage.

Expenditure and resource utilisation for cervical screening in Australia

Background

The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that women aged 18–69 years are screened with conventional cytology every 2 years. Publicly funded HPV vaccination was introduced in 2007, and partly as a consequence, a renewal of the screening program that includes a review of screening recommendations has recently been announced. This study aimed to provide a baseline for such a review by quantifying screening program resource utilisation and costs in 2010.

Methods

A detailed model of current cervical screening practice in Australia was constructed and we used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry to model age-specific compliance with screening and follow-up. We applied model-derived rate estimates to the 2010 Australian female population to calculate costs and numbers of colposcopies, biopsies, treatments for precancer and cervical cancers in that year, assuming that the numbers of these procedures were not yet substantially impacted by vaccination.

Results

The total cost of the screening program in 2010 (excluding administrative program overheads) was estimated to be A$194.8M. We estimated that a total of 1.7 million primary screening smears costing $96.7M were conducted, a further 188,900 smears costing $10.9M were conducted to follow-up low grade abnormalities, 70,900 colposcopy and 34,100 histological evaluations together costing $21.2M were conducted, and about 18,900 treatments for precancerous lesions were performed (including retreatments), associated with a cost of $45.5M for treatment and post-treatment follow-up. We also estimated that $20.5M was spent on work-up and treatment for approximately 761 women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer. Overall, an estimated $23 was spent in 2010 for each adult woman in Australia on cervical screening program-related activities.

Conclusions

Approximately half of the total cost of the screening program is spent on delivery of primary screening tests; but the introduction of HPV vaccination, new technologies, increasing the interval and changing the age range of screening is expected to have a substantial impact on this expenditure, as well as having some impact on follow-up and management costs. These estimates provide a benchmark for future assessment of the impact of changes to screening program recommendations to the costs of cervical screening in Australia.

Modeling preventative strategies against human papillomavirus-related disease in developed countries

Over the last 5 years, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in pre-adolescent females has been introduced in most developed countries, supported by modeled evaluations that have almost universally found vaccination of pre-adolescent females to be cost-effective. Studies to date suggest that vaccination of pre-adolescent males may also be cost-effective at a cost per vaccinated individual of ~US$400-500 if vaccination coverage in females cannot be increased above ~50%; but if it is possible, increasing coverage in females appears to be a better return on investment. Comparative evaluation of the quadrivalent (HPV16,18,6,11) and bivalent (HPV16,18) vaccines centers around the potential trade-off between protection against anogenital warts and vaccine-specific levels of cross-protection against infections not targeted by the vaccines. Future evaluations will also need to consider the cost-effectiveness of a next generation nonavalent vaccine designed to protect against ~90% of cervical cancers. The timing of the effect of vaccination on cervical screening programs will be country-specific and will depend on vaccination catch-up age range and coverage and the age at which screening starts. Initial evaluations suggest that if screening remains unchanged, it will be less cost-effective in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated women but, in the context of current vaccines, will remain an important prevention method. Comprehensive evaluation of new approaches to screening will need to consider the population-level effects of vaccination over time. New screening strategies of particular interest include delaying the start age of screening, increasing the screening interval and switching to primary HPV screening. Future evaluations of screening will also need to focus on the effects of disparities in screening and vaccination uptake, the potential effects of vaccination on screening participation, and the effects of imperfect compliance with screening recommendations. This article forms part of a special supplement entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

Population-level impact of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccines: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. Furthermore, clinical trials examining the efficacy of a nonavalent vaccine are underway. We aimed to compare the potential population-level effectiveness of the bivalent, quadrivalent, and candidate nonavalent HPV vaccines.

METHODS

We developed an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease in a population stratified by age, gender, sexual activity, and screening behavior. The model was calibrated to highly stratified sexual behavior, HPV epidemiology, and cervical screening data from Canada.

RESULTS

Under base case assumptions, vaccinating 12-year-old girls (70% coverage) with the bivalent (quadrivalent) vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative incidence of anogenital warts (AGWs) by 0.0% (72.1%), diagnosed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions 2 and 3 (CIN2 and -3) by 51.0% (46.1%), and cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) by 31.9% (30.5%), over 70 years. Changing from a bivalent (quadrivalent) to a nonavalent vaccine is predicted to reduce the cumulative number of AGW episodes by an additional 66.7% (0.0%), CIN2 and -3 episodes by an additional 9.3% (12.5%), and SCC cases by an additional 4.8% (6.6%) over 70 years. Differences in predicted population-level effectiveness between the vaccines were most sensitive to duration of protection and the time horizon of analysis. The vaccines produced similar effectiveness at preventing noncervical HPV-related cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The bivalent vaccine is expected to be slightly more effective at preventing CIN2 and -3 and SCC in the longer term, whereas the quadrivalent vaccine is expected to substantially reduce AGW cases shortly after the start of vaccination programs. Switching to a nonavalent vaccine has the potential to further reduce precancerous lesions and cervical cancer.

A revision of sexual mixing matrices in models of sexually transmitted infection

Two sexual mixing matrices previously used in models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are intended to calculate the probability of sexual interaction between age groups and sexual behaviour subgroups. When these matrices are used to specify multiple criteria for how people select sexual partners (such as age group and sexual behaviour class), their conditional probability structure means that they have in practice been prone to misuse. We constructed revised mixing matrices that incorporate a corrected conditional probability structure and then used one of them to examine the effect of this revision on population modelling of STIs. Using a dynamic model of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission as an example, we examined changes to estimates of HPV prevalence and the relative reduction in age-standardised HPV incidence after the commencement of publicly funded HPV vaccination in Australia. When all other model specifications were left unchanged, the revised mixing matrix initially led to estimates of age-specific oncogenic HPV prevalence that were up to 11% higher than our previous models at certain ages. After re-calibrating the model by modifying unobservable parameters characterising HPV natural history, the revised mixing matrix yielded similar estimates to our previous models, predicting that vaccination would lead to relative HPV incidence reductions of 43% and 85% by 2010 and 2050, respectively, compared with 43% and 86% using the unrevised mixing matrix formulation. Our revised mixing matrix offers a rigorous alternative to commonly used mixing matrices, which can be used to reliably and explicitly accommodate conditional probabilities, with appropriate re-calibration of unobservable model parameters.