Severe underestimation of pertussis related hospitalizations and deaths in the Netherlands: A capture-recapture analysis

Bordetella pertussis in School-Age Children, Adolescents and Adults: A Systematic Review of Epidemiology and Mortality in Europe

Pertussis (whooping cough) epidemics persist globally despite high vaccine coverage among infants and young children. The resurgence of pertussis in high-income countries is partly due to waning vaccine immunity, resulting in a pool of unprotected adolescents and adults. However, pertussis is generally less severe in adolescents and adults, and this difference in presentation means it can often be unrecognised by healthcare professionals, meaning that it is largely under-diagnosed in older populations. A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and BIOSIS was undertaken to identify studies published between 1 January 1990 and 17 June 2019, with information on pertussis epidemiology and mortality in school-aged children, adolescents and adults in Europe. A formal statistical comparison (e.g. using meta-analyses) was not possible because of the mix of methodologies reported. There were 69 epidemiological studies and 19 mortality studies identified for review. Over the past decade, the reported incidence of notified pertussis cases varied widely between European countries, which is likely associated with differences in surveillance systems, diagnostic techniques and reporting regulations. However, several studies show that pertussis is circulating among adolescents and adults in Europe, and although pertussis-related morbidity and mortality are highest in infants, there is evidence that adults aged > 50 years are at increased risk. For example, in a hospital-based surveillance study in Portugal, between 2000 and 2015, 94% of hospitalised pertussis cases were infants aged < 1 year, with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.8%; however, among hospitalised adult cases of pertussis, the CFRs were 11.5% (aged 18–64 years) and 17.4% (aged > 65 years). Very few European countries currently include pertussis boosters for adults in the national immunisation strategy. In addition to increasing pertussis vaccination coverage in adolescents and adults, mitigation strategies in European countries should include improved diagnosis and treatment in these populations.

Estimating pertussis incidence in general practice using a large Australian primary care database

BACKGROUND

While pertussis is notifiable in most countries, notifications typically underestimate the true pertussis burden. We explored the incidence of pertussis in general practice in Australia.

METHODS

Using MedicineInsight, a large longitudinal electronic medical record database of general practice (primary care) encounters which includes >1.5 million patients, we first defined a cohort of active patients and then used free-text search algorithms to identify patients with pertussis-related encounters. We defined and identified pertussis-related encounters in four patient categories: pertussis-associated (category 1), potential pertussis (category 2), epidemiologically-linked pertussis (category 3), and symptoms consistent with pertussis (category 4). Incident pertussis-related encounter rates per 100,000 active patients were calculated from Jan 2008 to Aug 2015.

RESULTS

Estimated mean annual pertussis incidence increased as definitions were expanded, from 94.3 (category 1 patients only) to 148.8 (categories 1+2+3 patients combined) per 100,000 active patients per year. Monthly time-series corresponding to the first three categories were highly correlated (Pearson's r > 90% for each pair), but each was poorly correlated with category 4. For categories 1+2+3, the highest incidence was among 0-4 and 5-9 year olds. Incidence was 30% higher in females than males (i.e. 184.5 vs 139.8 per 100,00 active patients for categories 1-3 patients combined). Pertussis-associated incidence (category 1) was similar to national pertussis notification rates. Categories 2 and 3 added 25% and 33%, respectively, on average relative to category 1 incidence. The estimated incidence from categories 1+2+3 together were on average 64% higher than national pertussis notification rates.

CONCLUSION

We provide comprehensive estimates of pertussis-related incidence in general practice (primary care), well in excess of notified pertussis incidence in Australia. This highlights the utility of MedicineInsight data in providing a greater understanding of the burden of medically-attended pertussis infections.

Incidence and severity of pertussis hospitalisations in infants aged less than 1 year in 37 hospitals of six EU/EEA countries, results of PERTINENT sentinel pilot surveillance system, December 2015 to December 2018

Introduction

PERTINENT is a pilot active surveillance system of infants hospitalised with pertussis in six European Union/European Economic Area countries (37 hospitals, seven sites).

Aim

This observational study aimed to estimate annual pertussis incidence per site from 2016 to 2018 and respective trends between 2017 and 2018. Pertussis cases were described, including their severity.

Methods

We developed a generic protocol and laboratory guidelines to harmonise practices across sites. Cases were hospitalised infants testing positive for Bordetella pertussis by PCR or culture. Sites collected demographic, clinical, laboratory data, vaccination status, and risk/protective factors. We estimated sites’ annual incidences by dividing case numbers by the catchment populations.

Results

From December 2015 to December 2018, we identified 469 cases (247 males; 53%). The median age, birthweight and gestational age were 2.5 months (range: 0–11.6; interquartile range (IQR): 2.5), 3,280 g (range: 700–4,925; IQR: 720) and 39 weeks (range: 25–42; IQR: 2), respectively. Thirty cases (6%) had atypical presentation either with cough or cyanosis only or with absence of pertussis-like symptoms. Of 330 cases with information, 83 (25%) were admitted to intensive care units including five deceased infants too young to be vaccinated. Incidence rate ratios between 2018 and 2017 were 1.43 in Czech Republic (p = 0.468), 0.25 in Catalonia (p = 0.002), 0.71 in France (p = 0.034), 0.14 in Ireland (p = 0.002), 0.63 in Italy (p = 0.053), 0.21 in Navarra (p = 0.148) and zero in Norway.

Conclusions

Incidence appeared to decrease between 2017 and 2018 in all but one site. Enhanced surveillance of hospitalised pertussis in Europe is essential to monitor pertussis epidemiology and disease burden.

Errors in reported ages and dates in surveys of adult mortality: A record linkage study in Niakhar (Senegal)

Sibling survival histories are a major source of adult mortality estimates in countries with incomplete death registration. We evaluate age and date reporting errors in sibling histories collected during a validation study in the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Senegal). Participants were randomly assigned to either the Demographic and Health Survey questionnaire or a questionnaire incorporating an event history calendar, recall cues, and increased probing strategies. We linked 60-62 per cent of survey reports of siblings to the reference database using manual and probabilistic approaches. Both questionnaires showed high sensitivity (>96 per cent) and specificity (>97 per cent) in recording siblings' vital status. Respondents underestimated the age of living siblings, and age at and time since death of deceased siblings. These reporting errors introduced downward biases in mortality estimates. The revised questionnaire improved reporting of age of living siblings but not of age at or timing of deaths.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis immunization (aP) in different socioeconomic settings: A dynamic transmission model of pertussis in three Brazilian states

OBJECTIVES

Using dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions.

METHODS

We tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014-2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System.

RESULTS

Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.

Enhanced post-licensure safety surveillance of a new recombinant acellular pertussis vaccine licensed as a monovalent (aP, Pertagen®) and tetanus, reduced-dose diphtheria combination (TdaP, Boostagen®) vaccine for immunization of adolescents and adults in Thailand

A new generation of recombinant acellular pertussis vaccine containing genetically inactivated pertussis toxin (PTgen) was licensed as a monovalent pertussis vaccine (aP_gen; Pertagen®) and in combination with tetanus and reduced-dose diphtheria (TdaP_gen; Boostagen®) for active immunization in individuals aged 11 years and older in Thailand in 2016. We here report post-marketing safety data on the use of the vaccines in individuals in the community obtained through active pharmacovigilance surveillance including pregnant women participating in a prospective observational study. Between May 2017 and February 2020 for TdaP_gen and between June 2018 and February 2020 for aP_gen, participating health care providers vaccinated and collected safety data for 11,429 exposed adolescents and adults. This included 1778 pregnant women. The incidence rate of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) was 11.5 per 1000 of vaccinated individuals (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 9.7-13.6). AEFIs mostly concerned local pain at the injection site and muscle pain, and symptoms were mild and mostly resolved within a few days with no complications. The incidence rate of AEFIs in women vaccinated during pregnancy was 1.1 per 1000 (95% CI 0.3-4.1). Of 833 pregnant women vaccinated with recombinant aP_gen or TdaP_gen, 91.4% (95% CI 89.3-93.3) had uncomplicated pregnancies and 98.7% (95% CI 97.7-99.4) of the 855 babies delivered by these women were born healthy, which exceeds rates generally reported in Thailand. There were no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported during the surveillance period. In conclusion, active pharmacovigilance confirms that the recombinant pertussis vaccines aP_gen (Pertagen) and TdaP_gen (Boostagen) are safe in adolescents and adults, including pregnant women vaccinated in the second or third trimester of pregnancy.

Disease burden of varicella versus other vaccine-preventable diseases before introduction of vaccination into the national immunisation programme in the Netherlands

Introduction

Estimating burden of disease (BoD) is an essential first step in the decision-making process on introducing new vaccines into national immunisation programmes (NIPs). For varicella, a common vaccine-preventable disease, BoD in the Netherlands was unknown.

Aim

To assess national varicella BoD and compare it to BoD of other vaccine-preventable diseases before their introduction in the NIP.

Methods

In this health estimates reporting study, BoD was expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using methodology from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project. As no parameters/disease model for varicella (including herpes zoster) were available in the BCoDE toolkit, incidence, disease progression model and parameters were derived from seroprevalence, healthcare registries and published data. For most other diseases, BoD was estimated with existing BCoDE-parameters, adapted to the Netherlands if needed.

Results

In 2017, the estimated BoD of varicella in the Netherlands was 1,800 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1,800–1,900) DALYs. Herpes zoster mainly contributed to this BoD (1,600 DALYs; 91%), which was generally lower than the BoD of most current NIP diseases in the year before their introduction into the NIP. However, BoD for varicella was higher than for rotavirus gastroenteritis (1,100; 95%UI: 440–2,200 DALYs) and meningococcal B disease (620; 95%UI: 490–770 DALYs), two other potential NIP candidates.

Conclusions

When considering the introduction of a new vaccine in the NIP, BoD is usually estimated in isolation. The current approach assesses BoD in relation to other vaccine-preventable diseases’ BoD, which may help national advisory committees on immunisation and policymakers to set vaccination priorities.

Timeliness of infectious disease reporting, the Netherlands, 2003 to 2017: law change reduced reporting delay, disease identification delay is next

BackgroundTimely notification of infectious diseases is essential for effective disease control and needs regular evaluation.AimOur objective was to evaluate the effects that statutory adjustments in the Netherlands in 2008 and raising awareness during outbreaks had on notification timeliness.MethodsIn a retrospective analyses of routine surveillance data obtained between July 2003 and November 2017, delays between disease onset and laboratory confirmation (disease identification delay), between laboratory confirmation and notification to Municipal Health Services (notification delay) and between notification and reporting to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (reporting delay) were analysed for 28 notifiable diseases. Delays before (period 1) and after the law change (periods 2 and 3) were compared with legal timeframes. We studied the effect of outbreak awareness in 10 outbreaks and the effect of specific guidance messages on disease identification delay for two diseases.ResultsWe included 144,066 notifications. Average notification delay decreased from 1.4 to 0.4 days across the three periods (six diseases; p < 0.05), reporting delay decreased mainly in period 2 (from 0.5 to 0.1 days, six diseases; p < 0.05). In 2016-2017, legal timeframes were met overall. Awareness resulted in decreased disease identification delay for three diseases: measles and rubella (outbreaks) and psittacosis (specific guidance messages).ConclusionsLegal adjustments decreased notification and reporting delays, increased awareness reduced identification delays. As disease identification delay dominates the notification chain, insight in patient, doctor and laboratory delay is necessary to further improve timeliness and monitor the impact of control measures during outbreaks.

Pertussis hospitalizations among term and preterm infants: clinical course and vaccine effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Pertussis causes severe disease in young unvaccinated infants, with preterms potentially at highest risk. We studied pertussis in hospitalized infants as related to gestational age (GA) and vaccination history.

METHODS

Medical record data of 0-2y old patients hospitalized for pertussis during 2005-2014 were linked to vaccination data. Multivariable logistic regression was used to study the association between GA and vaccination history on the clinical disease course. We compared vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalization for pertussis between term and preterm infants (i.e., <37w GA) using the screening method as developed by Farrington.

RESULTS

Of 1187 records, medical data from 676 were retrieved. Of these, 12% concerned preterms, whereas they are 8% of Dutch birth cohorts. Median age at admission was 3 m for preterms and 2 m for terms (p < 0.001). Preterms more often had received pertussis vaccination (62% vs 44%; p = 0.01) and more often had coinfections (37% vs 21%; p = 0.01). Preterms tended more often to have complications, to require artificial respiration or to need admittance to the intensive care unit (ICU). Preterms had longer ICU stays (15d vs 9d; p = 0.004). Vaccinated preterms and terms had a lower median length of hospital stay and lower crude risks of apneas and the need for artificial respiration, additional oxygen, and ICU admittance than those not vaccinated. After adjustment for presence of coinfections and age at admittance, these differences were not significant, except the lower need of oxygen treatment in vaccinated terms. Effectiveness of the first vaccination against pertussis hospitalizations was 95% (95% CI 93-96%) and 73% (95% CI 20-91%) in terms and preterms, respectively. Effectiveness of the second dose of the primary vaccination series was comparable in both groups (86 and 99%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Infants hospitalized for pertussis suffer from severe disease. Preterms were overrepresented, with higher need for intensive treatment and less VE of first vaccination. These findings stress the need for alternative prevention, in particular prenatal vaccination of mothers, to reduce pertussis in both groups.

Under-reporting of pertussis in Ontario: A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study using capture-recapture

Introduction

Under-reporting of pertussis cases is a longstanding challenge. We estimated the true number of pertussis cases in Ontario using multiple data sources, and evaluated the completeness of each source.

Methods

We linked data from multiple sources for the period 2009 to 2015: public health reportable disease surveillance data, public health laboratory data, and health administrative data (hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and physician office visits). To estimate the total number of pertussis cases in Ontario, we used a three-source capture-recapture analysis stratified by age (infants, or aged one year and older) and adjusting for dependency between sources. We used the Bayesian Information Criterion to compare models.

Results

Using probable and confirmed reported cases, laboratory data, and combined hospitalizations/emergency department visits, the estimated total number of cases during the six-year period amongst infants was 924, compared with 545 unique observed cases from all sources. Using the same sources, the estimated total for those aged 1 year and older was 12,883, compared with 3,304 observed cases from all sources. Only 37% of infants and 11% for those aged 1 year and over admitted to hospital or seen in an emergency department for pertussis were reported to public health. Public health reporting sensitivity varied from 2% to 68% depending on age group and the combination of data sources included. Sensitivity of combined hospitalizations and emergency department visits varied from 37% to 49% and of laboratory data from 1% to 50%.

Conclusions

All data sources contribute cases and are complementary, suggesting that the incidence of pertussis is substantially higher than suggested by routine reports. The sensitivity of different data sources varies. Better case identification is required to improve pertussis control in Ontario.