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Euvichol-plus vaccine campaign coverage during the 2017/2018 cholera outbreak in Lusaka district, Zambia: a cross-sectional descriptive study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e070796. [PMID: 37798024 PMCID: PMC10565249 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine the coverage for the oral cholera vaccine (OCV) campaign conducted during the 2017/2018 cholera outbreak in Lusaka, Zambia. STUDY DESIGN A descriptive cross-sectional study employing survey method conducted among 1691 respondents from 369 households following the second round of the 2018 OCV campaign. STUDY SETTING Four primary healthcare facilities and their catchment areas in Lusaka city (Kanyama, Chawama, Chipata and Matero subdistricts). PARTICIPANTS A total of 1691 respondents 12 months and older sampled from 369 households where the campaign was conducted. A satellite map-based sampling technique was used to randomly select households. DATA MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS A pretested electronic questionnaire uploaded on an electronic tablet (ODK V.1.12.2) was used for data collection. Descriptive statistics were computed to summarise respondents' characteristics and OCV coverage per dose. Bivariate analysis (χ2 test) was conducted to stratify OCV coverage according to age and sex for each round (p<0.05). RESULTS The overall coverage for the first, second and two doses were 81.3% (95% CI 79.24% to 83.36%), 72.1% (95% CI 69.58% to 74.62%) and 66% (95% CI 63.22% to 68.78%), respectively. The drop-out rate was 18.8% (95% CI 14.51% to 23.09%). Of the 81.3% who received the first dose, 58.8% were female. Among those who received the second dose, the majority (61.0%) were females aged between 5 and 14 years (42.6%) and 15 and 35 years (27.7%). Only 15.5% of the participants aged between 36 and 65 and 2.5% among those aged above 65 years received the second dose. CONCLUSION These findings confirm the 2018 OCV campaign coverage and highlight the need for follow-up surveys to validate administrative coverage estimates using population-based methods. Reliance on health facility data alone may mask low coverage and prevent measures to improve programming. Future public health interventions should consider sociodemographic factors in order to achieve optimal vaccine coverage.
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Estimating the proportion of clinically suspected cholera cases that are true Vibrio cholerae infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Med 2023; 20:e1004286. [PMID: 37708235 PMCID: PMC10538743 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004286] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2022] [Revised: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cholera surveillance relies on clinical diagnosis of acute watery diarrhea. Suspected cholera case definitions have high sensitivity but low specificity, challenging our ability to characterize cholera burden and epidemiology. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of clinically suspected cholera that are true Vibrio cholerae infections and identify factors that explain variation in positivity. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted a systematic review of studies that tested ≥10 suspected cholera cases for V. cholerae O1/O139 using culture, PCR, and/or a rapid diagnostic test. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for studies that sampled at least one suspected case between January 1, 2000 and April 19, 2023, to reflect contemporary patterns in V. cholerae positivity. We estimated diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity using a latent class meta-analysis. We estimated V. cholerae positivity using a random-effects meta-analysis, adjusting for test performance. We included 119 studies from 30 countries. V. cholerae positivity was lower in studies with representative sampling and in studies that set minimum ages in suspected case definitions. After adjusting for test performance, on average, 52% (95% credible interval (CrI): 24%, 80%) of suspected cases represented true V. cholerae infections. After adjusting for test performance and study methodology, the odds of a suspected case having a true infection were 5.71 (odds ratio 95% CrI: 1.53, 15.43) times higher when surveillance was initiated in response to an outbreak than in non-outbreak settings. Variation across studies was high, and a limitation of our approach was that we were unable to explain all the heterogeneity with study-level attributes, including diagnostic test used, setting, and case definitions. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we found that burden estimates based on suspected cases alone may overestimate the incidence of medically attended cholera by 2-fold. However, accounting for cases missed by traditional clinical surveillance is key to unbiased cholera burden estimates. Given the substantial variability in positivity between settings, extrapolations from suspected to confirmed cases, which is necessary to estimate cholera incidence rates without exhaustive testing, should be based on local data.
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Poor Sensitivity of Stool Culture Compared to Polymerase Chain Reaction in Surveillance for Vibrio cholerae in Haiti, 2018-2019. Open Forum Infect Dis 2023; 10:ofad301. [PMID: 37383250 PMCID: PMC10296062 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
We report on the sensitivity and specificity of stool culture compared to polymerase chain reaction for detecting Vibrio cholerae in Haiti during the waning period of the initial outbreak in 2018-2019. We found that stool culture (with a sensitivity of 33.3% and specificity of 97.4%) may not be sufficiently robust in this context.
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An Age-stratified, Randomized Immunogenicity Trial of Killed Oral Cholera Vaccine with Delayed Second Dose in Cameroon. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2022; 107:974-983. [PMID: 36395746 PMCID: PMC9709001 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 08/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/01/2023] Open
Abstract
The recommended schedule for killed oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is two doses, 2 weeks apart. However, during vaccine campaigns, the second round is often delayed by several months. Because more information is needed to document antibody responses when the second dose is delayed, we conducted an open-label, phase 2, noninferiority clinical trial of OCV. One hundred eighty-six participants were randomized into three dose-interval groups (DIGs) to receive the second dose 2 weeks, 6 months, or 11.5 months after the first dose. The DIGs were stratified into three age strata: 1 to 4, 5 to 14, and > 14 years. Inaba and Ogawa vibriocidal titers were assessed before and after vaccination. The primary analysis was geometric mean titer (GMT) 2 weeks after the second dose. Data for primary analysis was available from 147 participants (54, 44, and 49 participants from the three DIGs respectively). Relative to the 2-week interval, groups receiving a delayed second dose had significantly higher GMTs after the second dose. Two weeks after the second dose, Inaba GMTs were 55.1 190.3, and 289.8 and Ogawa GMTs were 70.4, 134.5, and 302.4 for the three DIGs respectively. The elevated titers were brief, returning to lower levels within 3 months. We conclude that when the second dose of killed oral cholera vaccine was given after 6 or 11.5 months, vibriocidal titers were higher than when given after the standard period of 2 weeks. This provides reassurance that a delayed second dose does not compromise, but rather enhances, the serological response to the vaccine.
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A comparison of the test-negative and the matched case-control study designs for estimation of EV71 vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints from a randomized controlled trial. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2022; 18:2073751. [PMID: 35678636 PMCID: PMC9481104 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2073751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Since TND could be an appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness, we want to know whether it may be used for the estimation of vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints, like case-control study. We conducted two study designs (test-negative design (TND) VS matched case-control design (MCC)) to evaluate immunological surrogate endpoint against EV71-associated diseases. We calculated sensitivity (proportion of participants with EV71-associated disease who have a titer less than the cutoff at day 56), specificity (proportion of matched controls who have a titer equal or greater than the cutoff at day 56), and corresponding Youden index ([sensitivity + specificity] − 1). Then, we compared them between TND and MCC. In test-negative design, we totally enrolled 7029 subjects, 49 tested positive as cases and 6980 tested negative as controls in per-protocol population. In matched case-control design, we totally enrolled 305 subjects, 51 as cases, and 254 as controls in whole cohort. In sensitivity and specificity comparison, TND and MCC’s results were similar to each other, except for a titer of 1:4. Nonetheless, in Youden index comparison, MCC’s results were slightly higher than the TND’s, except for a titer of 1:4. EV71 vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints derived from TND was similar to MCC’s. Our results supported that TND could become an alternative research design with the progress of surveillance.
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Factors associated with diarrheal disease among children aged 1-5 years in a cholera epidemic in rural Haiti. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009726. [PMID: 34679083 PMCID: PMC8535179 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2020] [Accepted: 08/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Diarrheal illness is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among children in Haiti, and the impact of diarrheal illness was compounded by a cholera outbreak between 2010 and 2019. Our understanding of risk factors for diarrhea among children during this outbreak is limited. We conducted a secondary analysis of data collected as part of a cholera vaccine effectiveness study to identify factors associated with medically attended diarrhea among children in central Haiti from October of 2012 through November of 2016. We identified 47 children aged one to five years old who presented to medical clinics with acute, watery diarrhea, and 166 matched controls who did not have diarrhea, and we performed conditional logistic regression to identify factors associated with diarrhea. Discontinuing exclusive breastfeeding within one month of birth was associated with increased risk of diarrhea (RR 6.9, 95% CI 1.46–32.64), and diarrhea was inversely associated with reported history of supplementation with vitamin A (RR 0.05, 95% CI 0.004–0.56) and zinc (reported among 0% of cases vs. 17% of controls). Because of the concordance in supplementation patterns, it was not possible to attribute the association to vitamin A or zinc independently. While having a respondent who correctly identified ≥3 means of avoiding cholera was associated with reduced risk of diarrhea (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.19–1.01), reported household sanitation practices and knowledge of cholera were not consistently associated with risk of diarrhea. These findings support ongoing efforts to reduce barriers to breastfeeding and promote pediatric supplementation with vitamin A and zinc in Haiti. Given the reduced efficacy of current oral cholera vaccines (OCV) among children, the results reinforce the importance of breastfeeding and micronutrient supplementation in preventing all-cause pediatric diarrheal illness generally and during cholera outbreaks. Diarrheal diseases are leading causes of illness and death among children throughout the world, and children in Haiti were particularly impacted by diarrhea during the cholera outbreak that started in 2010. Between 2012 and 2016, data were collected as part of a case-control study of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) effectiveness in Haiti. We analyzed data from that study to identify factors associated with diarrheal illness, including cholera and non-cholera diarrhea, among children ages one through five years old. We found a direct association between longer duration of exclusive breastfeeding and supplementation with vitamin A and zinc and a reduced risk of diarrhea. These findings shed light on potentially important components of efforts to reduce pediatric diarrheal illness in Haiti generally, and to reduce pediatric diarrhea in the context of cholera outbreaks in Haiti and elsewhere.
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Adjustment for Disease Severity in the Test-Negative Study Design. Am J Epidemiol 2021; 190:1882-1889. [PMID: 33728441 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 03/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The test-negative study design is often used to estimate vaccine effectiveness in influenza studies, but it has also been proposed in the context of other infectious diseases, such as cholera, dengue, or Ebola. It was introduced as a variation of the case-control design, in an attempt to reduce confounding bias due to health-care-seeking behavior, and has quickly gained popularity because of its logistic advantages. However, examination of the directed acyclic graphs that describe the test-negative design reveals that without strong assumptions, the estimated odds ratio derived under this sampling mechanism is not collapsible over the selection variable, such that the results obtained for the sampled individuals cannot be generalized to the whole population. In this paper, we show that adjustment for severity of disease can reduce this bias and, under certain assumptions, makes it possible to unbiasedly estimate a causal odds ratio. We support our findings with extensive simulations and discuss them in the context of recently published cholera test-negative studies of the effectiveness of cholera vaccines.
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Temporal Confounding in the Test-Negative Design. Am J Epidemiol 2020; 189:1402-1407. [PMID: 32415834 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwaa084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Revised: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
In the test-negative design, routine testing at health-care facilities is leveraged to estimate the effectiveness of an intervention such as a vaccine. The odds of vaccination for individuals who test positive for a target pathogen is compared with the odds of vaccination for individuals who test negative for that pathogen, adjusting for key confounders. The design is rapidly growing in popularity, but many open questions remain about its properties. In this paper, we examine temporal confounding by generalizing derivations to allow for time-varying vaccine status, including out-of-season controls, and open populations. We confirm that calendar time is an important confounder when vaccine status varies during the study. We demonstrate that, where time is not a confounder, including out-of-season controls can improve precision. We generalize these results to open populations. We use our theoretical findings to interpret 3 recent papers utilizing the test-negative design. Through careful examination of the theoretical properties of this study design, we provide key insights that can directly inform the implementation and analysis of future test-negative studies.
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Abstract
The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach for vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. However, previous studies suggested that it may be more vulnerable than other designs to misclassification of disease outcome caused by imperfect diagnostic tests. This could be a particular limitation in VE studies where simple tests (e.g. rapid influenza diagnostic tests) are used for logistical convenience. To address this issue, we derived a mathematical representation of the TND with imperfect tests, then developed a bias correction framework for possible misclassification. TND studies usually include multiple covariates other than vaccine history to adjust for potential confounders; our methods can also address multivariate analyses and be easily coupled with existing estimation tools. We validated the performance of these methods using simulations of common scenarios for vaccine efficacy and were able to obtain unbiased estimates in a variety of parameter settings.
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Homelessness and Hepatitis A-San Diego County, 2016-2018. Clin Infect Dis 2020; 71:14-21. [PMID: 31412358 PMCID: PMC10956402 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2019] [Accepted: 08/13/2019] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hepatitis A is a vaccine-preventable viral disease transmitted by the fecal-oral route. During 2016-2018, the County of San Diego investigated an outbreak of hepatitis A infections primarily among people experiencing homelessness (PEH) to identify risk factors and support control measures. At the time of the outbreak, homelessness was not recognized as an independent risk factor for the disease. METHODS We tested the association between homelessness and infection with hepatitis A virus (HAV) using a test-negative study design comparing patients with laboratory-confirmed hepatitis A with control subjects who tested negative for HAV infection. We assessed risk factors for severe hepatitis A disease outcomes, including hospitalization and death, using multivariable logistic regression. We measured the frequency of indications for hepatitis A vaccination according to Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines. RESULTS Among 589 outbreak-associated cases reported, 291 (49%) occurred among PEH. Compared with those who were not homeless, PEH had 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-7.9) times higher odds of HAV infection, 2.5 (95% CI, 1.7-3.9) times higher odds of hospitalization, and 3.9 (95% CI, 1.1-16.9) times higher odds of death associated with hepatitis A. Among PEH, 212 (73%) patients recorded other ACIP indications for hepatitis A vaccination. CONCLUSIONS PEH were at higher risk of infection with HAV and of severe hepatitis A disease outcomes compared with those not experiencing homelessness. Approximately one-fourth of PEH had no other ACIP indication for hepatitis A vaccination. These findings support the recent ACIP recommendation to add homelessness as an indication for hepatitis A vaccination.
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Alternative observational designs to estimate the effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine in Lusaka, Zambia. Epidemiol Infect 2020; 148:e78. [PMID: 32167038 PMCID: PMC7163804 DOI: 10.1017/s095026882000062x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
We conducted a matched case-control (MCC), test-negative case-control (TNCC) and case-cohort study in 2016 in Lusaka, Zambia, following a mass vaccination campaign. Confirmed cholera cases served as cases in all three study designs. In the TNCC, control-subjects were cases with negative cholera culture and polymerase chain reaction results. Matched controls by age and sex were selected among neighbours of the confirmed cases in the MCC study. For the case-cohort study, we recruited a cohort of randomly selected individuals living in areas considered at-risk of cholera. We recruited 211 suspected cases (66 confirmed cholera cases and 145 non-cholera diarrhoea cases), 1055 matched controls and a cohort of 921. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was 88.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42.7–97.8) in the MCC study, 80.2% (95% CI: 16.9–95.3) in the TNCC design and 89.4% (95% CI: 64.6–96.9) in the case-cohort study. Three study designs confirmed the short-term effectiveness of single dose OCV. Major healthcare-seeking behaviour bias did not appear to affect our estimates. Most of the protection among vaccinated individuals could be attributed to the direct effect of the vaccine.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines. METHODS We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE. RESULTS We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.
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Feasibility of case-control and test-negative designs to evaluate dengue vaccine effectiveness in Malaysia. Vaccine 2019; 37:5891-5898. [PMID: 31445770 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.07.083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2019] [Revised: 07/09/2019] [Accepted: 07/24/2019] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The world's first dengue vaccine [Dengvaxia; Sanofi Pasteur] was licensed in 2015 and others are in development. Real-world evaluations of dengue vaccines will therefore soon be needed. We assessed feasibility of case control (CC) and test-negative (TN) design studies for dengue vaccine effectiveness by measuring associations between socio-demographic risk factors, and hospitalized dengue outcomes, in Malaysia. METHODS Following ethical approval, we conducted hospital-based dengue surveillance for one year in three referral hospitals. Suspected cases aged 9-25 years underwent dengue virological confirmation by RT-PCR and/or NS1 Ag ELISA at a central laboratory. Two age- and geography-matched hospitalized non-dengue case-controls were recruited for a traditional CC study. Suspected cases testing negative were test-negative controls. Socio-demographic, risk factor and routine laboratory data were collected. Logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between confirmed dengue and risk factors. RESULTS We recruited 327 subjects; 155 were suspected of dengue. The planned sample size was not met. 124 (80%) of suspected cases were dengue-confirmed; seven were assessed as severe. Three had missing RT-PCR results; the study recruited 28 test-negative controls. Only 172 matched controls could be recruited; 90 cases were matched with ≥1 controls. Characteristics of cases and controls were mostly similar. By CC design, two variables were significant risk factors for hospitalized dengue: recent household dengue contact (OR: 54, 95% CI: 7.3-397) and recent neighbourhood insecticidal fogging (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3-3.6). In the TN design, no risk factors were identified. In comparison with gold-standard diagnostics, routine tests performed poorly. CONCLUSIONS The CC design may be more appropriate than the TN design for hospitalized dengue vaccine effectiveness studies. Selection bias in case control selection could be minimized by protocol changes more easily than increasing TN design control numbers, because early-stage dengue diagnosis in endemic countries is highly specific. MREC study approval: (39)KKM/NIHSEC/P16-1334.
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Abstract
Introduction: Influenza vaccination is regarded as the most effective way to prevent influenza infection. Due to the rapid genetic changes that influenza viruses undergo, seasonal influenza vaccines must be reformulated and re-administered annually necessitating the evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year. The estimation of influenza VE presents numerous challenges. Areas Covered: This review aims to identify, discuss, and, where possible, offer suggestions for dealing with the following challenges in estimating influenza VE: different outcomes of interest against which VE is estimated, study designs used to assess VE, sources of bias and confounding, repeat vaccination, waning immunity, population level effects of vaccination, and VE in at-risk populations. Expert Opinion: The estimation of influenza VE has improved with surveillance networks, better understanding of sources of bias and confounding, and the implementation of advanced statistical methods. Future research should focus on better estimates of the indirect effects of vaccination, the biological effects of vaccination, and how vaccines interact with the immune system. Specifically, little is known about how influenza vaccination impacts an individual's infectiousness, how vaccines wane over time, and the impact of repeated vaccination.
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Long-term effectiveness of one and two doses of a killed, bivalent, whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in Haiti: an extended case-control study. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2019; 6:e1028-e1035. [PMID: 30103980 PMCID: PMC6190920 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30284-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2017] [Revised: 05/22/2018] [Accepted: 05/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
Background No study of long-term protection following killed oral cholera vaccination has been done outside of the historically cholera-endemic areas of south Asia, or has examined protection after a single-dose vaccination regimen. To address this, we examined the duration of protection of the standard two-dose regimen and an incomplete regimen of one dose up to 4 years after vaccination in Haiti. Methods In the setting of two-dose vaccination campaigns with a killed, bivalent, whole-cell oral cholera vaccination, we did a case-control study from October, 2012 through November, 2016. Eligible participants were required to be resident in the vaccine catchment area (Artibonite Department or Central Department) where they were recruited at the start of the study; and be eligible for the vaccination campaign (ie, aged ≥12 months, not pregnant, and living in the region at the time of the vaccine campaign). Patients with cholera had a positive stool culture and were recruited from cholera treatment centres. Community controls were matched to people with cholera by age group, time, and neighbourhood. We did adjusted matched regression analyses to calculate vaccine effectiveness and examine heterogeneity in effectiveness over time. The primary outcome was the effectiveness of one and two oral cholera doses as compared with zero doses from 2 months to 48 months after vaccination, measured by self reporting. Findings Among 178 people assigned to the case group and 706 people assigned to the control group, we found no evidence that two-dose effectiveness decreased during follow-up. In adjusted analyses, the average cumulative 4 year effectiveness for two doses was 76% (95% CI 59–86). In contrast, single-dose effectiveness decreased over time in a log-linear fashion, with a predicted vaccine effectiveness of 79% at the end of 12 months (95% CI 43–93), which declined to zero before the end of the second year. Interpretation In a setting of epidemic and newly endemic cholera in Haiti, single-dose vaccination with killed, bivalent, whole-cell oral cholera vaccination provided short-term protection; however, vaccination with two doses was required for long-term protection, which lasted up to 4 years after vaccination. These results add to the evidence in support of the use of killed, bivalent, whole-cell oral cholera vaccination as part of comprehensive cholera control plans. Funding US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Measurement of Vaccine Direct Effects Under the Test-Negative Design. Am J Epidemiol 2018; 187:2686-2697. [PMID: 30099505 PMCID: PMC6269249 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2018] [Revised: 07/30/2018] [Accepted: 07/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Test-negative designs are commonplace in assessments of influenza vaccination effectiveness, estimating this value from the exposure odds ratio of vaccination among individuals treated for acute respiratory illness who test positive for influenza virus infection. This approach is widely believed to recover the vaccine direct effect by correcting for differential health-care-seeking behavior among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. However, the relationship of the measured odds ratio to true vaccine effectiveness is poorly understood. We derived the odds ratio under circumstances of real-world test-negative studies. The odds ratio recovers the vaccine direct effect when 2 conditions are met: 1) Individuals' vaccination decisions are uncorrelated with exposure or susceptibility to the test-positive or test-negative conditions, and 2) vaccination confers "all-or-nothing" protection (whereby certain individuals have no protection while others are perfectly protected). Biased effect-size estimates arise if either condition is unmet. Such bias might suggest misleading associations of vaccine effectiveness with time since vaccination or the force of infection of influenza. The test-negative design could also fail to correct for differential health-care-seeking behavior among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons without stringent criteria for enrollment and testing. Our findings demonstrate a need to reassess how data from test-negative studies can inform policy decisions.
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Case-Control Study of Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness Compared to Test-Negative Controls or Hospital Controls. J Epidemiol 2018; 29:282-287. [PMID: 30344199 PMCID: PMC6614077 DOI: 10.2188/jea.je20180054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Selection of test-negative controls takes less time and costs less than traditional control selection for evaluating vaccine effectiveness (VE). Here, rotavirus VE was evaluated using hospital controls and compared with test-negative controls to determine whether using the latter can substitute for the former. Methods We recorded gastroenteritis in children from 2 months to 2 years of age at six medical facilities in Saga City between January 4th and May 31st, 2014. Stools from all identified acute gastroenteritis patients were tested for rotavirus using immunochromatography. Rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases had test-positive stool, whereas test-negative controls had gastroenteritis but no rotavirus infection; hospital controls were outpatients visiting the same facility for indications other than gastroenteritis. Vaccination status was verified by inspecting maternal and child health records, and demographic data were obtained from a questionnaire completed by the patients’ guardians or from the medical records. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for possible confounding factors. Results Sixty-four RVGE cases, 260 test-negative controls, and 589 hospital controls were enrolled. The characteristics of the two control groups, including RV vaccination history, were similar. The RVGE cases were more likely to have used daycare services than children from either of the two control groups. The VE against RVGE estimated using hospital controls was 86.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 55.9–96.0%), very similar to the VE using test-negative controls (84.9% [95% CI, 49.6–95.5%]). Conclusions The estimated VE using test-negative controls and hospital controls is similar. Therefore, test-negative controls are considered appropriate for establishing VE.
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A Metagenomic Approach to Evaluating Surface Water Quality in Haiti. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15102211. [PMID: 30309013 PMCID: PMC6209974 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15102211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2018] [Revised: 09/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/04/2018] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
The cholera epidemic that occurred in Haiti post-earthquake in 2010 has resulted in over 9000 deaths during the past eight years. Currently, morbidity and mortality rates for cholera have declined, but cholera cases still occur on a daily basis. One continuing issue is an inability to accurately predict and identify when cholera outbreaks might occur. To explore this surveillance gap, a metagenomic approach employing environmental samples was taken. In this study, surface water samples were collected at two time points from several sites near the original epicenter of the cholera outbreak in the Central Plateau of Haiti. These samples underwent whole genome sequencing and subsequent metagenomic analysis to characterize the microbial community of bacteria, fungi, protists, and viruses, and to identify antibiotic resistance and virulence associated genes. Replicates from sites were analyzed by principle components analysis, and distinct genomic profiles were obtained for each site. Cholera toxin converting phage was detected at one site, and Shiga toxin converting phages at several sites. Members of the Acinetobacter family were frequently detected in samples, including members implicated in waterborne diseases. These results indicate a metagenomic approach to evaluating water samples can be useful for source tracking and the surveillance of pathogens such as Vibrio cholerae over time, as well as for monitoring virulence factors such as cholera toxin.
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