Intraseason decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season: A test-negative design study and phylogenetic assessment

Estimates of Seasonal Influenza Burden That Could Be Averted by Improved Influenza Vaccines in the Australian Population Aged Under 65 Years, 2015-2019

BACKGROUND

The interpretation of relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of improved influenza vaccines is complex. Estimation of burden averted is useful to contextualise their potential impact across different seasons. For the population aged under 65 years in Australia, this study estimated the additional morbidity and mortality that could be averted using improved influenza vaccines.

METHODS

We used observed, season-specific (2015-2019) influenza notification and influenza-coded hospitalisation frequencies and published modelled estimates of influenza-associated hospitalisations and deaths that occurred under the prevailing influenza vaccination coverage scenario. After back-calculating to the estimated burden in the population without vaccination, we applied published standard influenza vaccine effectiveness and coverage estimates to calculate the burden potentially averted by standard and improved influenza vaccines. A plausible range of rVE values were used, assuming 50% coverage.

RESULTS

The percentage point difference in absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an improved vaccine compared to a standard vaccine is directly proportional to its rVE and inversely proportional to the effectiveness of the standard vaccine. The incremental burden averted by an improved vaccine is a function of both its difference in absolute VE and the severity of the influenza season. Assuming an rVE of 15% with 50% coverage, the improved vaccine was estimated to additionally avert 1517 to 12,641 influenza notifications, 287 to 1311 influenza-coded hospitalisations and 9 to 33 modelled all-cause influenza deaths per year compared to the standard vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Improved vaccines can have substantial clinical and population impact, particularly when the effectiveness of standard vaccines is low, and burden is high.

The durability of vaccine-induced protection: an overview

INTRODUCTION

Current vaccines vary widely in both their efficacy against infection and disease, and the durability of the efficacy. Some vaccines provide practically lifelong protection with a single dose, while others provide only limited protection following annual boosters. What variables make vaccine-induced immune responses last? Can breakthroughs in these factors and technologies help us produce vaccines with better protection and fewer doses? The durability of vaccine-induced protection is now a hot area in vaccinology research, especially after COVID-19 vaccines lost their luster. It has fueled discussion on the eventual utility of existing vaccines to society and bolstered the anti-vaxxer camp. To sustain public trust in vaccines, lasting vaccines must be developed.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes licensed vaccines' protection. It analyses immunological principles and vaccine and vaccinee parameters that determine longevity of antibodies. The review concludes with challenges and the way forward to improve vaccine durability.

EXPERT OPINION

Despite enormous advances, we still lack essential markers and reliable correlates of lasting protection. Most research has focused on humoral immune responses, but we must also focus on innate, mucosal, and cellular responses - their assessment, correlates, determinants, and novel adjuvants. Suitable vaccine designs and platforms for durable immunity must be found.

Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2023–24 Influenza Season

This report updates the 2022–23 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) concerning the use of seasonal influenza vaccines in the United States (

MMWR Recomm Rep 2022;71[No. RR-1]:1–28). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. All seasonal influenza vaccines expected to be available in the United States for the 2023–24 season are quadrivalent, containing hemagglutinin (HA) derived from one influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, one influenza A(H3N2) virus, one influenza B/Victoria lineage virus, and one influenza B/Yamagata lineage virus. Inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4s), recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) are expected to be available.

For most persons who need only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, vaccination should ideally be offered during September or October. However, vaccination should continue after October and throughout the season as long as influenza viruses are circulating and unexpired vaccine is available. Influenza vaccines might be available as early as July or August, but for most adults (particularly adults aged ≥65 years) and for pregnant persons in the first or second trimester, vaccination during July and August should be avoided unless there is concern that vaccination later in the season might not be possible. Certain children aged 6 months through 8 years need 2 doses; these children should receive the first dose as soon as possible after vaccine is available, including during July and August. Vaccination during July and August can be considered for children of any age who need only 1 dose for the season and for pregnant persons who are in the third trimester during these months if vaccine is available

ACIP recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications receive a licensed and age-appropriate seasonal influenza vaccine. With the exception of vaccination for adults aged ≥65 years, ACIP makes no preferential recommendation for a specific vaccine when more than one licensed, recommended, and age-appropriate vaccine is available. ACIP recommends that adults aged ≥65 years preferentially receive any one of the following higher dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccines: quadrivalent high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV4), quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), or quadrivalent adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV4). If none of these three vaccines is available at an opportunity for vaccine administration, then any other age-appropriate influenza vaccine should be used

Primary updates to this report include the following two topics: 1) the composition of 2023–24 U.S. seasonal influenza vaccines and 2) updated recommendations regarding influenza vaccination of persons with egg allergy. First, the composition of 2023–24 U.S. influenza vaccines includes an update to the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 component. U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines will contain HA derived from 1) an influenza A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Wisconsin/67/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for cell culture-based and recombinant vaccines); 2) an influenza A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Darwin/6/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for cell culture-based and recombinant vaccines); 3) an influenza B/Austria/1359417/2021 (Victoria lineage)-like virus; and 4) an influenza B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage)-like virus. Second, ACIP recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months with egg allergy should receive influenza vaccine. Any influenza vaccine (egg based or nonegg based) that is otherwise appropriate for the recipient’s age and health status can be used. It is no longer recommended that persons who have had an allergic reaction to egg involving symptoms other than urticaria should be vaccinated in an inpatient or outpatient medical setting supervised by a health care provider who is able to recognize and manage severe allergic reactions if an egg-based vaccine is used. Egg allergy alone necessitates no additional safety measures for influenza vaccination beyond those recommended for any recipient of any vaccine, regardless of severity of previous reaction to egg. All vaccines should be administered in settings in which personnel and equipment needed for rapid recognition and treatment of acute hypersensitivity reactions are available

This report focuses on recommendations for the use of vaccines for the prevention and control of seasonal influenza during the 2023–24 influenza season in the United States. A brief summary of the recommendations and a link to the most recent Background Document containing additional information are available at

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/flu.html . These recommendations apply to U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines used according to Food and Drug Administration–licensed indications. Updates and other information are available from CDC’s influenza website ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu ). Vaccination and health care providers should check this site periodically for additional information.

Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Persons Aged 15-64 Years: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Influenza is a respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which is highly transmissible in humans. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and test-negative designs (TNDs) to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines (SIVs) in humans aged 15 to 64 years. An electronic search to identify all relevant studies was performed. The outcome measure of interest was VE on laboratory-confirmed influenza (any strain). Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for TNDs. The search identified a total of 2993 records, but only 123 studies from 73 papers were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 9 were RCTs and 116 were TNDs. The pooled VE was 48% (95% CI: 42-54) for RCTs, 55.4% (95% CI: 43.2-64.9) when there was a match between the vaccine and most prevalent circulating strains and 39.3% (95% CI: 23.5-51.9) otherwise. The TNDs' adjusted VE was equal to 39.9% (95% CI: 31-48), 45.1 (95% CI: 38.7-50.8) when there was a match and 35.1 (95% CI: 29.0-40.7) otherwise. The match between strains included in the vaccine and strains in circulation is the most important factor in the VE. It increases by more than 25% when there is a match with the most prevalent circulating strains. The laboratorial method for confirmation of influenza is a possible source of bias when estimating VE.

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile.

METHODS

We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in Kenya to include next-generation vaccines by allowing for enhanced vaccine characteristics and multi-annual immunity. We specifically examined vaccinating children under 5 years of age with improved vaccines, evaluating vaccines with combinations of increased vaccine effectiveness, cross-protection between strains (breadth) and duration of immunity. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs) for a range of values for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per DALY averted. Finally, we estimated threshold per-dose vaccine prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective.

RESULTS

Next-generation vaccines can be cost-effective, dependent on the vaccine characteristics and assumed WTP thresholds. Universal vaccines (assumed to provide long-term and broad immunity) are most cost-effective in Kenya across three of four WTP thresholds evaluated, with the lowest median value of ICER per DALY averted ($263, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): $ - 1698, $1061) and the highest median INMBs. At a WTP of $623, universal vaccines are cost-effective at or below a median price of $5.16 per dose (95% CrI: $0.94, $18.57). We also show that the assumed mechanism underlying infection-derived immunity strongly impacts vaccine outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This evaluation provides evidence for country-level decision makers about future next-generation vaccine introduction, as well as global research funders about the potential market for these vaccines. Next-generation vaccines may offer a cost-effective intervention to reduce influenza burden in low-income countries with year-round seasonality like Kenya.

Impact of prior vaccination on antibody response and influenza-like illness among Australian healthcare workers after influenza vaccination in 2016

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies suggest that influenza vaccine effectiveness decreases with repeated administration. We examined antibody responses to influenza vaccination among healthcare workers (HCWs) by prior vaccination history and determined the incidence of influenza infection.

METHODS

HCWs were vaccinated with the 2016 Southern Hemisphere quadrivalent influenza vaccine. Serum samples were collected pre-vaccination, 21-28 days and 7 months post-vaccination. Influenza antibody titres were measured at each time-point using the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Immunogenicity was compared by prior vaccination history.

RESULTS

A total of 157 HCWs completed the study. The majority were frequently vaccinated, with only 5 reporting no prior vaccinations since 2011. Rises in titres for all vaccine strains among vaccine-naïve HCWs were significantly greater than rises observed for HCWs who received between 1 and 5 prior vaccinations (p < 0.001, respectively). Post-vaccination GMTs against influenza A but not B strains decreased as the number of prior vaccinations increased from 1 to 5. There was a significant decline in GMTs post-season for both B lineages. Sixty five (41%) HCWs reported at least one influenza-like illness episode, with 6 (4%) identified as influenza positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Varying serological responses to influenza vaccination were observed among HCWs by prior vaccination history, with vaccine-naïve HCWs demonstrating greater post-vaccination responses against A(H3N2).

Decline in Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness With Vaccination Program Maturation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that repeated influenza vaccination may reduce vaccine effectiveness (VE). Using influenza vaccination program maturation (PM; number of years since program inception) as a proxy for population-level repeated vaccination, we assessed the impact on pooled adjusted end-season VE estimates from outpatient test-negative design studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched and selected full-text publications from January 2011 to February 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42017064595). We obtained influenza vaccination program inception year for each country and calculated PM as the difference between the year of deployment and year of program inception. We categorized PM into halves (cut at the median), tertiles, and quartiles and calculated pooled VE using an inverse-variance random-effects model. The primary outcome was pooled VE against all influenza.

RESULTS

We included 72 articles from 11 931 citations. Across the 3 categorizations of PM, a lower pooled VE against all influenza for all patients was observed with PM. Substantially higher reductions were observed in older adults (≥65 years). We observed similar results for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and influenza B.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests that influenza VE declines with vaccination PM. This study forms the basis for further discussions and examinations of the potential impact of vaccination PM on seasonal VE.

Variable seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence from test-negative design studies after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic

BACKGROUND

We examined the influence of some factors on seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from test-negative design (TND) studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched for full-text publications of VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza from TND studies in outpatient settings after the 2009/10 influenza pandemic. Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data from the included studies. We calculated pooled adjusted VE across geographical regions, age groups and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, using an inverse variance, random-effects model.

RESULTS

We included 76 full-text articles from 11,931 citations. VE estimates against A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were homogenous and point pooled VE higher in the Southern hemisphere compared with the Northern hemisphere. The difference in pooled VE between the Southern and Northern hemispheres was statistically significant for A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza. A consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across both hemispheres and continents, with the highest point pooled VE being against A(H1N1)pdm09, followed by influenza B, and lowest against A(H3N2). A nearly consistent pattern was observed in pooled VE across age groups in the Northern hemisphere, with pooled VE mostly decreasing with age. Point pooled VE against A(H3N2), influenza B, and all influenza were statistically significantly higher when vaccine was antigenically similar to circulating virus strains compared with when antigenically dissimilar. Similar pattern was observed in the Northern hemisphere, but there was a lack of data from the Southern hemisphere.

CONCLUSION

Consistent patterns appear to exist in seasonal influenza VE across regions, age groups, and levels of vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains, with best vaccine performance against A(H1N1)pdm09 and worst against A(H3N2). The evidence highlights the need to consider geographical location, age, and vaccine antigenic similarity with circulating virus strains when designing and evaluating influenza VE studies.

Determining optimal community protection strategies for the influenza vaccine

Introduction: Seasonal influenza poses a major risk to the health of the population. Optimal strategies for influenza vaccination can help to reduce this risk. Areas covered: Systematic evaluations of the burden of influenza are first reviewed. Key meta-analysis, randomized trials, and observational studies are critically reviewed to provide the best estimates of the efficacy of influenza vaccine. The concept of herd effect is first introduced and this is followed by the rationale and the evidence to support herd effect that can be provided with strategic use of influenza vaccination in populations. Challenges including the effect of repeated influenza vaccination and vaccine hesitancy are reviewed. The citations were selected by the authors based on PubMed searches of the literature. Expert opinion: Efforts to develop new vaccines, including a universal vaccine, offer the best prospects for improved herd effect. Increasing uptake in new populations can increase likelihood of a herd effect.

Challenges in estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness

Introduction: Influenza vaccination is regarded as the most effective way to prevent influenza infection. Due to the rapid genetic changes that influenza viruses undergo, seasonal influenza vaccines must be reformulated and re-administered annually necessitating the evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year. The estimation of influenza VE presents numerous challenges. Areas Covered: This review aims to identify, discuss, and, where possible, offer suggestions for dealing with the following challenges in estimating influenza VE: different outcomes of interest against which VE is estimated, study designs used to assess VE, sources of bias and confounding, repeat vaccination, waning immunity, population level effects of vaccination, and VE in at-risk populations. Expert Opinion: The estimation of influenza VE has improved with surveillance networks, better understanding of sources of bias and confounding, and the implementation of advanced statistical methods. Future research should focus on better estimates of the indirect effects of vaccination, the biological effects of vaccination, and how vaccines interact with the immune system. Specifically, little is known about how influenza vaccination impacts an individual's infectiousness, how vaccines wane over time, and the impact of repeated vaccination.