QMRAspot: a tool for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment from surface water to potable water

Eye infection risks from Pseudomonas aeruginosa via hand soap and eye drops

Eye infections from bacterial contamination of bulk-refillable liquid soap dispensers and artificial tear eye drops continue to occur, resulting in adverse health outcomes that include impaired vision or eye enucleation. Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa), a common cause of eye infections, can grow in eye drop containers and refillable soap dispensers to high numbers. To assess the risk of eye infection, a quantitative microbial risk assessment for P. aeruginosa was conducted to predict the probability of an eye infection for two potential exposure scenarios: (i) individuals using bacteria-contaminated eye drops and (ii) contact lens wearers washing their hands with bacteria-contaminated liquid soap prior to placing the lens. The median risk of an eye infection using contaminated eye drops and hand soap for both single and multiple exposure events (per day) ranged from 10-1 to 10-4, with contaminated eye drops having the greater risk. The concentration of P. aeruginosa was identified as the parameter contributing the greatest variance on eye infection risk; therefore, the prevalence and level of bacterial contamination of the product would have the greatest influence on health risk. Using eye drops in a single-use container or with preservatives can mitigate bacterial growth, and using non-refillable soap dispensers is recommended to reduce contamination of hand soap. Given the opportunistic nature of P. aeruginosa and its ability to thrive in unique environments, additional safeguards to mitigate bacterial growth and exposure are warranted.IMPORTANCEPseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa) is a pathogen that can persist in a variety of unusual environments and continues to pose a significant risk for public health. This quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) estimates the potential human health risks, specifically for eye infections, associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa in bacteria-contaminated artificial tear eye drops and hand soap. This study applies the risk assessment framework of QMRA to evaluate eye infection risks through both consumer products. The study examines the prevalence of this pathogen in eye drops and soap, as well as the critical need to implement measures that will mitigate bacterial exposure (e.g., single-use soap dispensers and eye drops with preservatives). Additionally, limitations and challenges are discussed, including the need to incorporate data regarding consumer practices, which may improve exposure assessments and health risk estimates.

A probabilistic-deterministic approach for assessing climate change effects on infection risks downstream of sewage emissions from CSOs

The discharge of pathogens into urban recreational water bodies during combined sewer overflows (CSOs) pose a potential threat for public health which may increase in the future due to climate change. Improved methods are needed for predicting the impact of these effects on the microbiological urban river water quality and infection risks during recreational use. The aim of this study was to develop a novel probabilistic-deterministic modelling approach for this purpose building on physically plausible generated future rainfall time series. The approach consists of disaggregation and validation of daily precipitation time series from 21 regional climate models for a reference period (1971-2000, C20), a near-term future period (2021-2050, NTF) and a long-term future period (2071-2100, LTF) into sub-daily scale, and predicting the concentrations of enterococci and Giardia and Cryptosporidium, and infection risks during recreational use in the river downstream of the sewage emissions from CSOs. The approach was tested for an urban river catchment in Austria which is used for recreational activities (i.e. swimming, playing, wading, hand-to-mouth contact). According to a worst-case scenario (i.e. children bathing in the river), the 95th percentile infection risks for Giardia and Cryptosporidium range from 0.08 % in winter to 8 % per person and exposure event in summer for C20. The infection risk increase in the future is up to 0.8 log10 for individual scenarios. The results imply that measures to prevent CSOs may be needed to ensure sustainable water safety. The approach is promising for predicting the effect of climate change on urban water safety requirements and for supporting the selection of sustainable mitigation measures. Future studies should focus on reducing the uncertainty of the predictions at local scale.

Dose-response relationship of Ralstonia solanacearum and potato in greenhouse and in vitro experiments

Ralstonia solanacearum is the causative agent of bacterial wilt of potato and other vegetable crops. Contaminated irrigation water contributes to the dissemination of this pathogen but the exact concentration or biological threshold to cause an infection is unknown. In two greenhouse experiments, potted potato plants (Solanum tuberosum) were exposed to a single irrigation with 50 mL water (non-invasive soil-soak inoculation) containing no or 10² - 10⁸ CFU/mL R. solanacearum. The disease response of two cultivars, Kondor and HB, were compared. Disease development was monitored over a three-month period after which stems, roots and tubers of asymptomatic plants were analyzed for latent infections. First wilting symptoms were observed 15 days post inoculation in a plant inoculated with 5x10⁹ CFU and a mean disease index was used to monitor disease development over time. An inoculum of 5x10⁵ CFU per pot (1.3x10² CFU/g soil) was the minimum dose required to cause wilting symptoms, while one latent infection was detected at the lowest dose of 5x10² CFU per pot (0.13 CFU/g). In a second set of experiments, stem-inoculated potato plants grown in vitro were used to investigate the dose-response relationship under optimal conditions for pathogen growth and disease development. Plants were inoculated with doses between 0.5 and 5x10⁵ CFU/plant which resulted in visible symptoms at all doses. The results led to a dose-response model describing the relationship between R. solanacearum exposure and probability of infection or illness of potato plants. Cultivar Kondor was more susceptible to brown-rot infections than HB in greenhouse experiments while there was no significant difference between the dose-response models of both cultivars in in vitro experiments. The ED₅₀ for infection of cv Kondor was 1.1x10⁷ CFU. Results can be used in management strategies aimed to reduce or eliminate the risk of bacterial wilt infection when using treated water in irrigation.

Transport and removal of spores of Bacillus subtilis in an alluvial gravel aquifer at varying flow rates and implications for setback distances

To guarantee proper protection from fecally transmitted pathogen infections, drinking water wells should have a sufficiently large setback distance from potential sources of contamination, e.g. a nearby river. The aim of this study was to provide insight in regards to microbial contamination of groundwater under different flow velocities, which can vary over time due to changes in river stage, season or pumping rate. The effects of these changes, and how they affect removal parameters, are not completely understood. In this study, field tracer tests were carried out in a sandy gravel aquifer near Vienna, Austria to evaluate the ability of subsurface media to attenuate Bacillus subtilis spores, used as a surrogate for Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter. The hydraulic gradient between injection and extraction was controlled by changing the pumping rate (1, 10 l/s) of a pumping well at the test site, building upon previously published work in which tracer tests with a 5 l/s pumping rate were carried out. Attachment and detachment rate coefficients were determined using a HYDRUS-3D model and ranged from 0.12 to 0.76 and 0-0.0013 h^-1, respectively. Setback distances were calculated based on the 60-day travel time, as well as a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) approach, which showed similar results at this site; around 700 m at the highest pumping rate. Removal rates (λ) in the field tests ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 log/m, with lower pumping rates leading to higher removal. It was shown that scale must be taken into consideration when determining λ for the calculation of safe setback distances.

Genotype-dependent kinetics of enterovirus inactivation by free chlorine and ultraviolet (UV) irradiation

Inactivation kinetics of enterovirus by disinfection is often studied using a single laboratory strain of a given genotype. Environmental variants of enterovirus are genetically distinct from the corresponding laboratory strain, yet it is poorly understood how these genetic differences affect inactivation. Here we evaluated the inactivation kinetics of nine coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3), ten coxsackievirus B4 (CVB4), and two echovirus 11 (E11) variants by free chlorine and ultraviolet irradiation (UV). The inactivation kinetics by free chlorine were genotype- (i.e., susceptibility: CVB5 < CVB3 ≈ CVB4 < E11) and genogroup-dependent and exhibited up to 15-fold difference among the tested viruses. In contrast, only minor (up to 1.3-fold) differences were observed in the UV inactivation kinetics. The differences in variability between the two disinfectants could be rationalized by their respective inactivation mechanisms: inactivation by UV mainly depends on the genomic size and composition, which was similar for all viruses tested, whereas free chlorine targets the viral capsid protein, which exhibited critical differences between genogroups and genotypes. Finally, we integrated the observed variability in inactivation rate constants into an expanded Chick-Watson model to estimate the overall inactivation of an enterovirus consortium. The results highlight that the distribution of inactivation rate constants and the abundance of each genotype are essential parameters to accurately predict the overall inactivation of an enterovirus population by free chlorine. We conclude that predictions based on inactivation data of a single variant or reference pathogen alone likely overestimate the true disinfection efficiency of free chlorine.

Campylobacter Species, Microbiological Source Tracking and Risk Assessment of Bacterial pathogens

Campylobacter species continue to remain critical pathogens of public health interest. They are responsible for approximately 500 million cases of gastroenteritis per year worldwide. Infection occurs through the consumption of contaminated food and water. Microbial risk assessment and source tracking are crucial epidemiological strategies to monitor the outbreak of campylobacteriosis effectively. Various methods have been proposed for microbial source tracking and risk assessment, most of which rely on conventional microbiological techniques such as detecting fecal indicator organisms and other novel microbial source tracking methods, including library-dependent microbial source tracking and library-independent source tracking approaches. However, both the traditional and novel methods have their setbacks. For example, while the conventional techniques are associated with a poor correlation between indicator organism and pathogen presence, on the other hand, it is impractical to interpret qPCR-generated markers to establish the exact human health risks even though it can give information regarding the potential source and relative human risk. Therefore, this article provides up-to-date information on campylobacteriosis, various approaches for source attribution, and risk assessment of bacterial pathogens, including next-generation sequencing approaches such as shotgun metagenomics, which effectively answer the questions of potential pathogens are there and in what quantities.

Climate Change Impacts on Microbiota in Beach Sand and Water: Looking Ahead

Beach sand and water have both shown relevance for human health and their microbiology have been the subjects of study for decades. Recently, the World Health Organization recommended that recreational beach sands be added to the matrices monitored for enterococci and Fungi. Global climate change is affecting beach microbial contamination, via changes to conditions like water temperature, sea level, precipitation, and waves. In addition, the world is changing, and humans travel and relocate, often carrying endemic allochthonous microbiota. Coastal areas are amongst the most frequent relocation choices, especially in regions where desertification is taking place. A warmer future will likely require looking beyond the use of traditional water quality indicators to protect human health, in order to guarantee that waterways are safe to use for bathing and recreation. Finally, since sand is a complex matrix, an alternative set of microbial standards is necessary to guarantee that the health of beach users is protected from both sand and water contaminants. We need to plan for the future safer use of beaches by adapting regulations to a climate-changing world.

Model development for evidence-based prioritisation of policy action on emerging chemical and microbial drinking water risks

While the burden of disease from well-studied drinking water contaminants is declining, risks from emerging chemical and microbial contaminants arise because of social, technological, demographic and climatological developments. At present, emerging chemical and microbial drinking water contaminants are not assessed in a systematic way, but reactively and incidence based. Furthermore, they are assessed separately despite similar pollution sources. As a result, risks might be addressed ineffectively. Integrated risk assessment approaches are thus needed that elucidate the uncertainties in the risk evaluation of emerging drinking water contaminants, while considering risk assessors' values. This study therefore aimed to (1) construct an assessment hierarchy for the integrated evaluation of the potential risks from emerging chemical and microbial contaminants in drinking water and (2) develop a decision support tool, based on the agreed assessment hierarchy, to quantify (uncertain) risk scores. A multi-actor approach was used to construct the assessment hierarchy, involving chemical and microbial risk assessors, drinking water experts and members of responsible authorities. The concept of value-focused thinking was applied to guide the problem-structuring and model-building process. The development of the decision support tool was done using Decisi-o-rama, an open-source Python library. With the developed decision support tool (uncertain) risk scores can be calculated for emerging chemical and microbial drinking water contaminants, which can be used for the evidence-based prioritisation of actions on emerging chemical and microbial drinking water risks. The decision support tool improves existing prioritisation approaches as it combines uncertain indicator levels with a multi-stakeholder approach and integrated the risk assessment of chemical and microbial contaminants. By applying the concept of value-focused thinking, this study addressed difficulties in evidence-based decision-making related to emerging drinking water contaminants. Suggestions to improve the model were made to guide future research in assisting policy makers to effectively protect public health from emerging drinking water risks.

The occurrence and control of waterborne viruses in drinking water treatment: A review

As the coronavirus disease 2019 continues to spread globally, its culprit, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has been brought under scrutiny. In addition to inhalation transmission, the possible fecal-oral viral transmission via water/wastewater has also been brought under the spotlight, necessitating a timely global review on the current knowledge about waterborne viruses in drinking water treatment system - the very barrier that intercepts waterborne pathogens to terminal water users. In this article we reviewed the occurrence, concentration methods, and control strategies, also, treatment performance on waterborne viruses during drinking water treatment were summarized. Additionally, we emphasized the potential of applying the quantitative microbial risk assessment to guide drinking water treatment to mitigate the viral exposure risks, especially when the unregulated novel viral pathogens are of concern. This review paves road for better control of viruses at drinking water treatment plants to protect public health.

Environmental rethinking of wastewater drains to manage environmental pollution and alleviate water scarcity

The conservation of water resources in developed countries has become an increasing concern. In integrated water resource management, water quality indicators are critical. The low groundwater quality quantitates mainly attributed to the absence of protection systems for polluted streams that collect and recycle the untreated wastewater. Egypt has a limited river network; thus, the supply of water resources remains inadequate to satisfy domestic demand. In this regard, high-quality groundwater is one of the main strategies for saving water supplies with water shortage problems. This paper investigates the critical issues of groundwater protection and environmental management of polluted streams, leading to overcoming water demand-about 18 × 10³ km of polluted open streams with a discharge of 9.70 billion Cubic Metter (BCM). We have proposed proposals and policies for the safe use of groundwater and reuse of wastewater recycling for agriculture and other purposes. This study was carried out using the numerical model MODFLOW and MT3DMS-(Mass Transport 3-Dimension Multi-Species) to assess the Wastewater Treated Plant's (WWTP) best location and the critical path for using different lining materials of polluted streams to avoid groundwater contamination. The three contaminants are BOD, COD, and TDS. Five scenarios were applied for mitigating the impact of polluted water: (1) abstraction forcing, (2) installing the WWTP at the outlet of the main basin drain with and without a lining of main and sub-basin streams (base case), (3) lining of main and sub-main streams, (4) installing WWTP at the outlet of the sub-basin streams, and (5) lining of the sub-basin and installing WWTP at the outlet of the sub-basin. The results showed that the best location of WWTP in polluted streams is developed at the outlets of sub-basin with the treatment of main basin water and the lining of sub-basins streams. The contamination was reduced by 76.07, 76.38, and 75.67% for BOD, COD, and TDS, respectively, using Cascade Aeration Biofilter or Trickling Filter, Enhancing Solar water Disinfection [(CABFESD)/(CATFESD)] and High-Density Polyethylene lining. This method is highly effective and safe for groundwater and surface water environmental protection. This study could be managing the water poverty for polluted streams and groundwater in the Global South and satisfy the environmental issues to improve water quality and reduce the treatment and health cost in these regions.

Importance of Distributional Forms for the Assessment of Protozoan Pathogens Concentrations in Drinking-Water Sources

The identification of appropriately conservative statistical distributions is needed to predict microbial peak events in drinking water sources explicitly. In this study, Poisson and mixed Poisson distributions with different upper tail behaviors were used for modeling source water Cryptosporidium and Giardia data from 30 drinking water treatment plants. Small differences (<0.5-log) were found between the "best" estimates of the mean Cryptosporidium and Giardia concentrations with the Poisson-gamma and Poisson-log-normal models. However, the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the mean Cryptosporidium concentrations of the Poisson-log-normal model was considerably higher (>0.5-log) than that of the Poisson-gamma model at four sites. The improper choice of a model may, therefore, mislead the assessment of treatment requirements and health risks associated with the water supply. Discrimination between models using the marginal deviance information criterion (mDIC) was unachievable because differences in upper tail behaviors were not well characterized with available data sets ( n<30 ). Therefore, the gamma and the log-normal distributions fit the data equally well but may predict different risk estimates when they are used as an input distribution in an exposure assessment. The collection of event-based monitoring data and the modeling of larger routine monitoring data sets are recommended to identify appropriately conservative distributions to predict microbial peak events.

Genetic Microbial Source Tracking Support QMRA Modeling for a Riverine Wetland Drinking Water Resource

Riverine wetlands are important natural habitats and contain valuable drinking water resources. The transport of human- and animal-associated fecal pathogens into the surface water bodies poses potential risks to water safety. The aim of this study was to develop a new integrative modeling approach supported by microbial source tracking (MST) markers for quantifying the transport pathways of two important reference pathogens, Cryptosporidium and Giardia, from external (allochthonous) and internal (autochthonous) fecal sources in riverine wetlands considering safe drinking water production. The probabilistic-deterministic model QMRAcatch (v 1.1 python backwater) was modified and extended to account for short-time variations in flow and microbial transport at hourly time steps. As input to the model, we determined the discharge rates, volumes and inundated areas of the backwater channel based on 2-D hydrodynamic flow simulations. To test if we considered all relevant fecal pollution sources and transport pathways, we validated QMRAcatch using measured concentrations of human, ruminant, pig and bird associated MST markers as well as E. coli in a Danube wetland area from 2010 to 2015. For the model validation, we obtained MST marker decay rates in water from the literature, adjusted them within confidence limits, and simulated the MST marker concentrations in the backwater channel, resulting in mean absolute errors of < 0.7 log₁₀ particles/L (Kruskal–Wallis p > 0.05). In the scenarios, we investigated (i) the impact of river discharges into the backwater channel (allochthonous sources), (ii) the resuspension of pathogens from animal fecal deposits in inundated areas, and (iii) the pathogen release from animal fecal deposits after rainfall (autochthonous sources). Autochthonous and allochthonous human and animal sources resulted in mean loads and concentrations of Cryptosporidium and Giardia (oo)cysts in the backwater channel of 3–13 × 10⁹ particles/hour and 0.4–1.2 particles/L during floods and rainfall events, and in required pathogen treatment reductions to achieve safe drinking water of 5.0–6.2 log₁₀. The integrative modeling approach supports the sustainable and proactive drinking water safety management of alluvial backwater areas.

The effective design of sampling campaigns for emerging chemical and microbial contaminants in drinking water and its resources based on literature mining

As well as known contaminants, surface waters also contain an unknown variety of chemical and microbial contaminants which can pose a risk to humans if surface water is used for the production of drinking water. To protect human health proactively, and in a cost-efficient way, water authorities and drinking water companies need early warning systems. This study aimed to (1) assess the effectiveness of screening the scientific literature to direct sampling campaigns for early warning purposes, and (2) detect new aquatic contaminants of concern to public health in the Netherlands. By screening the scientific literature, six example contaminants (3 chemical and 3 microbial) were selected as potential aquatic contaminants of concern to the quality of Dutch drinking water. Stakeholders from the Dutch water sector and various information sources were consulted to identify the potential sources of these contaminants. Based on these potential contamination sources, two sampling sequences were set up from contamination sources (municipal and industrial wastewater treatment plants), via surface water used for the production of drinking water to treated drinking water. The chemical contaminants, mycophenolic acid, tetrabutylphosphonium compounds and Hexafluoropropylene Oxide Trimer Acid, were detected in low concentrations and were thus not expected to pose a risk to Dutch drinking water. Colistin resistant Escherichia coli was detected for the first time in Dutch wastewater not influenced by hospital wastewater, indicating circulation of bacteria resistant to this last-resort antibiotic in the open Dutch population. Four out of six contaminants were thus detected in surface or wastewater samples, which showed that screening the scientific literature to direct sampling campaigns for both microbial and chemical contaminants is effective for early warning purposes.

Demonstrating the Benefits of Predictive Bayesian Dose-Response Relationships Using Six Exposure Studies of Cryptosporidium parvum

A conventional dose-response function can be refitted as additional data become available. A predictive dose-response function in contrast does not require a curve-fitting step, only additional data and presents the unconditional probabilities of illness, reflecting the level of information it contains. In contrast, the predictive Bayesian dose-response function becomes progressively less conservative as more information is included. This investigation evaluated the potential for using predictive Bayesian methods to develop a dose-response for human infection that improves on existing models, to show how predictive Bayesian statistical methods can utilize additional data, and expand the Bayesian methods for a broad audience including those concerned about an oversimplification of dose-response curve use in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study used a dose-response relationship incorporating six separate data sets for Cryptosporidium parvum. A Pareto II distribution with known priors was applied to one of the six data sets to calibrate the model, while the others were used for subsequent updating. While epidemiological principles indicate that local variations, host susceptibility, and organism strain virulence may vary, the six data sets all appear to be well characterized using the Bayesian approach. The adaptable model was applied to an existing data set for Campylobacter jejuni for model validation purposes, which yielded results that demonstrate the ability to analyze a dose-response function with limited data using and update those relationships with new data. An analysis of the goodness of fit compared to the beta-Poisson methods also demonstrated correlation between the predictive Bayesian model and the data.

A Data Simulation Method to Optimize a Mechanistic Dose-Response Model for Viral Loads of Hepatitis A

Driven by the quantitative estimate of risk via the dose-response models, quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used successfully for public health interventions. The dose-response models are derived starting from an average exposed dose of infectious particles, this dictates the of dose data units required. Then dose-response data from animal model experiments are used to optimize these mechanistic dose-response models. For hepatitis A (Hep-A), the only available dose-response data use grams of feces for dose units. Therefore, to develop a dose-response model for Hep-A a method of converting these doses in grams of feces into infectious particles, while accounting for the uncertainty of this conversion is needed. This research develops a method to couple data simulation with the likelihood estimation method for model optimization to accomplish this. This adapted method uses data simulation to model the doses as viral particles while accounting for the within-group variability of this simulation. Then these simulated doses, coupled with the original dose-response data, are used to optimize the mechanistic dose-response models. This method results in a more computationally rigorous means of modeling these types of dose-response data. The resulting dose-response model for Hep-A is also more appropriate to use than the current option for Hep-A risk models.

Application of QMRA to MAR operations for safe agricultural water reuses in coastal areas

A pathogenic Escherichia coli (E.coli) O157:H7 and O26:H11 dose-response model was set up for a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of the waterborne diseases associated with managed aquifer recharge (MAR) practices in semiarid regions. The MAR facility at Forcatella (Southern Italy) was selected for the QMRA application. The target counts of pathogens incidentally exposed to hosts by eating contaminated raw crops or while bathing at beaches of the coastal area were determined by applying the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) Bayesian method to the water sampling results. The MCMC provided the most probable pathogen count reaching the target and allowed for the minimization of the number of water samplings, and hence, reducing the associated costs. The sampling stations along the coast were positioned based on the results of a groundwater flow and pathogen transport model, which highlighted the preferential flow pathways of the transported E. coli in the fractured coastal aquifer. QMRA indicated tolerable (<10^-6 DALY) health risks for bathing at beaches and irrigation with wastewater, with 0.4 infectious diseases per year (11.4% probability of occurrence) associated with the reuse of reclaimed water via soil irrigation even though exceeding the E. coli regulation limit of 10 CFU/100 mL by five times. The results show negligible health risk and insignificant impacts on the coastal water quality due to pathogenic E. coli in the wastewater used for MAR. However, droughts and reclaimed water quality can be considered the main issues of MAR practices in semiarid regions suggesting additional reclaimed water treatments and further stress-tests via QMRAs by considering more persistent pathogens than E. coli.

Campylobacter risk for the consumers of wastewater-irrigated vegetables based on field experiments

Water scarcity is emerging as a major problem in water stressed regions such as Middle East countries which highlights the importance of agricultural reuse of wastewater as a valid alternative source. However, consumption of wastewater-irrigated crops has been implicated as a vehicle for transmission of bacterial infections such as campylobacteriosis. Understanding and minimizing public health threats associated with agricultural reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) are crucial elements in sustainable water resource management. To address this need, the present study was carried out to determine Campylobacter risk for the consumers of TWW-irrigated vegetables by field experiments as well as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. Campylobacter was monitored in secondary treated wastewater, TWW-irrigated soil and harvested vegetables by nested real-time PCR assay. Campylobacter was detected in 64% (16/25) of TWW samples, whereas analysis of TWW-irrigated soil and vegetable samples yielded no positive result for Campylobacter. The estimated mean annual Campylobacter disease burden ranged from 2.37 × 10^-5 to 6.6 × 10^-5 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per person per year (pppy) for vegetable consumers which was lower than the less stringent reference level of 10^-4 DALYs pppy has been recommended by world health organization (WHO). Our results in regard to the QMRA estimates and field experiments suggest that the reuse of TWW for irrigation of vegetables doesn't pose a considerable risk to human health from the viewpoint of Campylobacter infections in a semi-arid area.

Impacts of a changing earth on microbial dynamics and human health risks in the continuum between beach water and sand

Although infectious disease risk from recreational exposure to waterborne pathogens has been an active area of research for decades, beach sand is a relatively unexplored habitat for the persistence of pathogens and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Beach sand, biofilms, and water all present unique advantages and challenges to pathogen introduction, growth, and persistence. These dynamics are further complicated by continuous exchange between sand and water habitats. Models of FIB and pathogen fate and transport at beaches can help predict the risk of infectious disease from beach use, but knowledge gaps with respect to decay and growth rates of pathogens in beach habitats impede robust modeling. Climatic variability adds further complexity to predictive modeling because extreme weather events, warming water, and sea level change may increase human exposure to waterborne pathogens and alter relationships between FIB and pathogens. In addition, population growth and urbanization will exacerbate contamination events and increase the potential for human exposure. The cumulative effects of anthropogenic changes will alter microbial population dynamics in beach habitats and the assumptions and relationships used in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and process-based models. Here, we review our current understanding of microbial populations and transport dynamics across the sand-water continuum at beaches, how these dynamics can be modeled, and how global change factors (e.g., climate and land use) should be integrated into more accurate beachscape-based models.

Optimizing the performance of conventional water treatment system using quantitative microbial risk assessment, Tehran, Iran

The performance of conventional drinking water treatment plants (WTPs) can be improved using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). A QMRA study on Cryptosporidium using actual pathogen density was conducted to examine the performance of Jalaliyeh WTP in Tehran, Iran. The infection risk and the burden of disease attributed to the parasite presence in finished water were estimated incorporating physical and chemical log reduction values (LRVs), using stochastic modeling and disinfection profiling. The risk and burden of disease were compared with health-based targets, i.e. one case of infection per 10,000 people or 10^-6 DALYs per person per year. The parasite's LRVs were 2.31 and 0.034 log provided by physico-chemical treatment and disinfection processes, respectively. The mean of estimated risk (111 cases per 10⁴ people per year) and the burden of disease (11.7 DALYs per 10⁶ people per year) both exceeded the targets. To control the excess risk, three QMRA-based disinfection scenarios were examined including: (1) employing chlorine dioxide (ClO₂) instead of chlorine (2) ozonation with a concentration of 0.75 mg/L (Ct = 22.5 min mg/L) and (3) UV irradiation with a dose of 10 mJ/cm². The LRV of parasite may be increased to 3.0, 5.1 and 4.9 log by employing ClO₂, ozonation and UV irradiation, respectively. The use of ozone or UV as alternative disinfectants, could enhance the disinfection efficacy and provide sufficient additional treatment against the excess risk of parasite. QMRA could make it easier applying appropriate improvement to conventional WTPs in order to increase the system performance in terms of health-based measures.

Comparing flow cytometry with culture-based methods for microbial monitoring and as a diagnostic tool for assessing drinking water treatment processes

Flow cytometry (FCM) and the ability to measure both total and intact cell populations through DNA staining methodologies has rapidly gained attention and consideration across the water sector in the past decade. In this study, water quality monitoring was undertaken over three years across 213 drinking water treatment works (WTW) in the Scottish Water region (Total n = 39,340). Samples subject to routine regulatory microbial analysis using culture-based methods were also analysed using FCM. In addition to final treated water, the bacterial content in raw water was measured over a one-year period. Three WTW were studied in further detail using on-site inter-stage sampling and analysis with FCM. It was demonstrated that there was no clear link between FCM data and the coliform samples taken for regulatory monitoring. The disinfectant Ct value (Ct = mg·min/L) was the driving factor in determining final water cell viability and the proportion of intact cells (intact/total cells) and the frequency of coliform detections in the water leaving the WTW. However, the free chlorine residual, without consideration of treatment time, was shown to have little impact on coliform detections or cell counts. Amongst the three treatment trains monitored in detail, the membrane filtration WTW showed the greatest log removal and robustness in terms of final water intact cell counts. Flow cytometry was shown to provide insights into the bacteriological quality of water that adds significant value over and above that provided by traditional bacterial monitoring.

QMRA of adenovirus in drinking water at a drinking water treatment plant using UV and chlorine dioxide disinfection

According to the Dutch Drinking Water Act of 2011, Dutch drinking water suppliers must conduct a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) for infection by the following index pathogens: enterovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium and Giardia at least once every four years in order to assess the microbial safety of drinking water. The health-based target for safe drinking water is set at less than one infection per 10 000 persons per year. At Evides Water Company, concern has arisen whether their drinking water treatment, mainly based on UV inactivation and chlorine dioxide, reduces levels of adenovirus (AdV) sufficiently. The main objective was, therefore, to conduct a QMRA for AdV. Estimates of the AdV concentrations in source water were based on enumeration of total AdV by integrated cell culture PCR (iccPCR), most probable number PCR (mpnPCR) and quantitative PCR (qPCR), and on enumeration of AdV40/41 by mpnPCR and qPCR. AdV40/41 represents a large fraction of total AdV and only a small fraction of AdV is infectious (1/1700). By comparison of literature data and plant scale data, somatic coliphages appeared a good, conservative indicator for AdV disinfection by UV irradiation. Similarly, bacteriophage MS2 appeared to be a good, conservative indicator for disinfection by chlorine dioxide. Literature data on the efficiency of chlorine dioxide disinfection were fitted with the extended HOM model. Chlorine dioxide disinfection at low initial concentrations (0.05-0.1 mg/l) was found to be the major treatment step, providing sufficient treatment on its own for compliance with the health-based target. UV disinfection of AdV at 40 mJ/cm² or 73 mJ/cm² was insufficient without chlorine dioxide disinfection.

Confirming the need for virus disinfection in municipal subsurface drinking water supplies

Enteric viruses pose the greatest acute human health risks associated with subsurface drinking water supplies, yet quantitative risk assessment tools have rarely been used to develop health-based targets for virus treatment in drinking water sourced from these supplies. Such efforts have previously been hampered by a lack of consensus concerning a suitable viral reference pathogen and dose-response model as well as difficulties in quantifying pathogenic viruses in water. A reverse quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) framework and quantitative polymerase chain reaction data for norovirus genogroup I in subsurface drinking water supplies were used herein to evaluate treatment needs for such water supplies. Norovirus was not detected in over 90% of samples, which emphasizes the need to consider the spatially and/or temporally intermittent patterns of enteric pathogen contamination in subsurface water supplies. Collectively, this analysis reinforces existing recommendations that a minimum 4-log treatment goal is needed for enteric viruses in groundwater in absence of well-specific monitoring information. This result is sensitive to the virus dose-response model used as there is approximately a 3-log discrepancy among virus dose-response models in the existing literature. This emphasizes the need to address the uncertainties and lack of consensus related to various QMRA modelling approaches and the analytical limitations that preclude more accurate description of virus risks.

Data fitting approach more critical than exposure scenarios and treatment of censored data for quantitative microbial risk assessment

Recreational waters are a source of many diseases caused by human viral pathogens, including norovirus genogroup II (NoV GII) and enterovirus (EV). Water samples from the Arenales river in Salta, Argentina, were concentrated by ultrafiltration and analyzed for the concentrations of NoV GII and EV by quantitative PCR. Out of 65 samples, 61 and 59 were non-detects (below the Sample Limit of Detection limit, SLOD) for EV and NoV GII, respectively. We hypothesized that a finite number of environmental samples would lead to different conclusions regarding human health risks based on how data were treated and fitted to existing distribution functions. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed and the risk of infection was calculated using: (a) two methodological approaches to find the distributions that best fit the data sets (methods H and R), (b) four different exposure scenarios (primary contact for children and adults and secondary contact by spray inhalation/ingestion and hand-to-mouth contact), and (c) five alternatives for treating censored data. The risk of infection for NoV GII was much higher (and exceeded in most cases the acceptable value established by the USEPA) than for EV (in almost all the scenarios within the recommended limit), mainly due to the low infectious dose of NoV. The type of methodology used to fit the monitoring data was critical for these datasets with numerous non-detects, leading to very different estimates of risk. Method R resulted in higher projected risks than Method H. Regarding the alternatives for treating censored data, replacing non-detects by a unique value like the average or median SLOD to simplify the calculations led to the loss of information about the particular characteristics of each sample. In addition, the average SLOD was highly impacted by extreme values (due to events such as precipitations or point source contamination). Instead, using the SLOD or half- SLOD captured the uniqueness of each sample since they account for the history of the sample including the concentration procedure and the detection method used. Finally, substitution of non-detects by Zero is not realistic since a negative result would be associated with a SLOD that can change by developing more efficient and sensitive methodology; hence this approach would lead to an underestimation of the health risk. Our findings suggest that in most cases the use of the half-SLOD approach is appropriate for QMRA modeling.

Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk for Livestock When Animal Viruses Are Applied in Human Oncolytic Therapy: A Case Study for Seneca Valley Virus

Some viruses cause tumor regression and can be used to treat cancer patients; these viruses are called oncolytic viruses. To assess whether oncolytic viruses from animal origin excreted by patients pose a health risk for livestock, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed to estimate the risk for the Dutch pig industry after environmental release of Seneca Valley virus (SVV). The QRA assumed SVV excretion in stool by one cancer patient on Day 1 in the Netherlands, discharge of SVV with treated wastewater into the river Meuse, downstream intake of river water for drinking water production, and consumption of this drinking water by pigs. Dose-response curves for SVV infection and clinical disease in pigs were constructed from experimental data. In the worst scenario (four log₁₀ virus reduction by drinking water treatment and a farm with 10,000 pigs), the infection risk is less than 1% with 95% certainty. The risk of clinical disease is almost seven orders of magnitude lower. Risks may increase proportionally with the numbers of treated patients and days of virus excretion. These data indicate that application of wild-type oncolytic animal viruses may infect susceptible livestock. A QRA regarding the use of oncolytic animal virus is, therefore, highly recommended. For this, data on excretion by patients, and dose-response parameters for infection and clinical disease in livestock, should be studied.

Quantitative risk assessment of norovirus and adenovirus for the use of reclaimed water to irrigate lettuce in Catalonia

Wastewater is an important resource in water-scarce regions of the world, and its use in agriculture requires the guarantee of acceptable public health risks. The use of fecal indicator bacteria to evaluate safety does not represent viruses, the main potential health hazards. Viral pathogens could complement the use of fecal indicator bacteria in the evaluation of water quality. In this study, we characterized the concentration and removal of human adenovirus (HAdV) and norovirus genogroup II (NoV GII), highly abundant and important viral pathogens found in wastewater, in two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) that use different tertiary treatments (constructed wetland vs conventional UV, chlorination and Actiflo® treatments) for a year in Catalonia. The main objective of this study was to develop a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for viral gastroenteritis caused by norovirus GII and adenovirus, associated with the ingestion of lettuce irrigated with tertiary effluents from these WWTPs. The results show that the disease burden of NoV GII and HAdV for the consumption of lettuce irrigated with tertiary effluent from either WWTP was higher than the WHO recommendation of 10-6 DALYs for both viruses. The WWTP with constructed wetland showed a higher viral reduction on average (3.9 and 2.8 logs for NoV GII and HAdV, respectively) than conventional treatment (1.9 and 2.5 logs) but a higher variability than the conventional WWTP. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the input parameters used to estimate the viral reduction by treatment and viral concentrations accounted for much of the model output variability. The estimated reductions required to reach the WHO recommended levels in tertiary effluent are influenced by the characteristics of the treatments developed in the WWTPs, and additional average reductions are necessary (in WWTP with a constructed wetland: A total of 6.7 and 5.1 logs for NoV GII and HAdV, respectively; and in the more conventional treatment: 7 and 5.6 logs). This recommendation would be achieved with an average quantification of 0.5 genome copies per 100 mL in reclaimed water for both viruses. The results suggest that the analyzed reclaimed water would require additional treatments to achieve acceptable risk in the irrigation of vegetables with reclaimed water.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment and its applications in small water systems: A review

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been mainstreamed in many large municipal water systems as part of a paradigm shift in the drinking water industry towards water safety planning and risk-based system assessment. Small water systems (SWSs) are generally more vulnerable to typical water system hazards, and consequently have a higher risk of waterborne disease outbreak. In this paper, a review of experiences in implementing QMRA in SWSs helps elaborate the sources of risks and highlights some of the challenges facing SWSs in developed countries. A critical review of the important elements for practical implementation of QMRA was conducted. The investigation focuses on aspects related to challenges in identifying relevant hazards to SWSs to create failure scenarios, acquiring monitoring data for pathogens' concentrations in source water, estimating treatment efficiencies of typical small system technologies, and access to software tools to support successful implementation. The review helped outline ways through which SWSs can overcome the identified challenges in implementing QMRA. An adjusted framework for implementing QMRA for small water systems was formulated and discussed.

Determination of Removal Efficiencies for Escherichia coli, Clostridial Spores, and F-Specific Coliphages in Unit Processes of Surface Waterworks for QMRA Applications

The removal efficiencies of bacteria, bacterial spores, and viruses after a change in source water and water pH in coagulation were studied at pilot scale in coagulation with flotation, rapid sand filtration, and disinfection with UV and chlorine. The results were compared to the treatment efficiencies of full-scale waterworks and data from literature. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)-method was applied to estimate the numbers of illness cases caused by Campylobacter and norovirus after simulation of six operational malfunction scenarios. Coagulation with flotation and disinfection were more efficient in removing Clostridium spp. spores and MS2 coliphages than sand filtration in the pilot scale experiments (p < 0.001–0.008). The removal of E. coli was more efficient in sand filtration and in disinfection compared to coagulation with flotation (p = 0.006 and 0.01). Source water or pH change in coagulation had not significant effects on the removal efficiency of microbes. In QMRA, when disinfection was not in use, an increase in the number of illness cases compared to the normal situation was noticed. The variability in the number of illness cases demonstrated the importance of site-specific data in QMRA. This study provides new information on applying QMRA in both pilot and full-scale waterworks.

Critical knowledge gaps and research needs related to the environmental dimensions of antibiotic resistance

There is growing understanding that the environment plays an important role both in the transmission of antibiotic resistant pathogens and in their evolution. Accordingly, researchers and stakeholders world-wide seek to further explore the mechanisms and drivers involved, quantify risks and identify suitable interventions. There is a clear value in establishing research needs and coordinating efforts within and across nations in order to best tackle this global challenge. At an international workshop in late September 2017, scientists from 14 countries with expertise on the environmental dimensions of antibiotic resistance gathered to define critical knowledge gaps. Four key areas were identified where research is urgently needed: 1) the relative contributions of different sources of antibiotics and antibiotic resistant bacteria into the environment; 2) the role of the environment, and particularly anthropogenic inputs, in the evolution of resistance; 3) the overall human and animal health impacts caused by exposure to environmental resistant bacteria; and 4) the efficacy and feasibility of different technological, social, economic and behavioral interventions to mitigate environmental antibiotic resistance.1.

Opening the black box of spring water microbiology from alpine karst aquifers to support proactive drinking water resource management

Over the past 15 years, pioneering interdisciplinary research has been performed on the microbiology of hydrogeologically well-defined alpine karst springs located in the Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) of Austria. This article gives an overview on these activities and links them to other relevant research. Results from the NCA springs and comparable sites revealed that spring water harbors abundant natural microbial communities even in aquifers with high water residence times and the absence of immediate surface influence. Apparently, hydrogeology has a strong impact on the concentration and size of the observed microbes, and total cell counts (TCC) were suggested as a useful means for spring type classification. Measurement of microbial activities at the NCA springs revealed extremely low microbial growth rates in the base flow component of the studied spring waters and indicated the importance of biofilm-associated microbial activities in sediments and on rock surfaces. Based on genetic analysis, the autochthonous microbial endokarst community (AMEC) versus transient microbial endokarst community (TMEC) concept was proposed for the NCA springs, and further details within this overview article are given to prompt its future evaluation. In this regard, it is well known that during high-discharge situations, surface-associated microbes and nutrients such as from soil habitats or human settlements-potentially containing fecal-associated pathogens as the most critical water-quality hazard-may be rapidly flushed into vulnerable karst aquifers. In this context, a framework for the comprehensive analysis of microbial pollution has been proposed for the NCA springs to support the sustainable management of drinking water safety in accordance with recent World Health Organization guidelines. Near-real-time online water quality monitoring, microbial source tracking (MST) and MST-guided quantitative microbial-risk assessment (QMRA) are examples of the proposed analytical tools. In this context, this overview article also provides a short introduction to recently emerging methodologies in microbiological diagnostics to support reading for the practitioner. Finally, the article highlights future research and development needs. This article is categorized under: 1Engineering Water > Water, Health, and Sanitation2Science of Water > Water Extremes3Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.

Pepper mild mottle virus as a process indicator at drinking water treatment plants employing coagulation-sedimentation, rapid sand filtration, ozonation, and biological activated carbon treatments in Japan

To assess the potential of pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) as a viral process indicator, its reduction through coagulation-sedimentation (CS) and rapid sand filtration (RSF) were compared with those of Escherichia coli, previously used viral indicators, and norovirus genotype II (NoV GII; enteric virus reference pathogen) in a bench-scale experiment. PMMoV log₁₀ reductions in CS (1.96 ± 0.30) and RSF (0.26 ± 0.38) were similar to those of NoV GII (1.86 ± 0.61 and 0.28 ± 0.46). PMMoV, the most abundant viruses in the raw water, was also determined during CS, RSF, and advanced treatment processes at two full-scale drinking water treatment plants under strict turbidity management over a 13-month period. PMMoV was concentrated from large-volume water samples (10-614 L) and quantified by Taqman-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The PMMoV log₁₀ reduction in CS (2.38 ± 0.74, n = 13 and 2.63 ± 0.76, n = 10 each for Plant A and B) and in ozonation (1.91 ± 1.18, n = 5, Plant A) greatly contributed to the overall log₁₀ reduction. Our results suggest that PMMoV can act as a useful treatment process indicator of enteric viruses and can be used to monitor the log₁₀ reduction of individual treatment processes at drinking water treatment plants due to its high and consistent copy numbers in source water.

Fit-for-purpose wastewater treatment: Conceptualization to development of decision support tool (I)

This article is the first in a series of two papers. Paper I focuses on model conceptualization and development, and Paper II in the series focuses on model validation and implementation. The amount of water reuse has been increasing across the globe. Wastewater can be treated based on the intended end use of reclaimed water. Fit-for-purpose wastewater treatment (WWT) simultaneously considers intended end use, economic viability, and environmental sustainability. WWT technologies differ mainly in terms of treatment efficiency, cost, energy use, and associated carbon emissions. The planning and evaluation of water reuse projects requires a decision support tool (DST) to evaluate alternative WWT trains and water reuse applications. However, such a DST is not available in the publically accessible literature. A DST, FitWater, has been developed for the evaluation of WWT for various urban reuses. The evaluation is based on the following criteria: amount of reclaimed water production, health risk of water reuse, cost, energy use, and carbon emissions. The cost is estimated as annualized life cycle cost and health risk is estimated using quantitative microbial risk assessment. The uncertainty analysis has been performed using probabilistic and fuzzy-based methods. A multi-criteria decision analysis, using fuzzy weighted average, is employed to aggregate different criteria and generate a final score. FitWater ranks alternative WWT trains based on the resulting final score. The proposed FitWater DST is user-friendly, and its application is demonstrated using an example. The DST can be enhanced to include additional treatment technologies and carbon emissions of different treatment processes.

Public health and economic risk assessment of waterborne contaminants and pathogens in Finland

This study shows that a variety of mathematical modeling techniques can be applied in a comprehensive assessment of the risks involved in drinking water production. In order to track the effects from water sources to the end consumers, we employed four models from different fields of study. First, two models of the physical environment, which track the movement of harmful substances from the sources to the water distribution. Second, a statistical quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess the public health risks of the consumption of such water. Finally, a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic effects of increased illnesses. In order to substantiate our analysis, we used an illustrative case of a recently built artificial recharge system in Southern Finland that provides water for a 300,000 inhabitant area. We examine the effects of various chemicals and microbes separately. Our economic calculations allow for direct effects on labor productivity due to absenteeism, increased health care expenditures and indirect effects for local businesses. We found that even a considerable risk has no notable threat to public health and thus barely measurable economic consequences. Any epidemic is likely to spread widely in the urban setting we examined, but is also going to be short-lived in both public health and economic terms. Our estimate for the ratio of total and direct effects is 1.4, which indicates the importance of general equilibrium effects. Furthermore, the total welfare loss is 2.4 times higher than the initial productivity loss. The major remaining uncertainty in the economic assessment is the indirect effects.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the health risk from exposure to noroviruses in polluted surface water in South Africa

This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10^-8 to 5.19 × 10^-1) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10^-5 to 7.24 × 10^-1). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10^-6 to 5.43 × 10^-1) and swimming (6.20 × 10^-6 to 6.42 × 10^-1) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10^-7 to 5.48 × 10^-1). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.

Development of a microbial dose response visualization and modelling application for QMRA modelers and educators

Microbial dose response modelling is vital to a well-characterized microbial risk estimate. Dose response modelling is an inherently multidisciplinary field, which collates knowledge and data from disparate scientific fields. This multidisciplinary nature presents a key challenge to the expansion of microbial dose response modelling into new groups of researchers and modelers. This research employs a dose response optimization R code used in 18 peer-reviewed research studies to develop a multi-functional dose response software. The underlying R code performs an optimization of the two primary dose response models using the MLE method and outputs statistical analyses of the fits and bootstrapped uncertainty information for the models. VizDR (Visual Dose Response) was developed to provide microbial dose response modelling capabilities to a larger audience. VizDR is programmed in JavaScript with underlying Python scripts for intercommunication with Rserve. VizDR allows for dose response model visualization and optimization of a user's own experimental data.

Comparison of Risk Predicted by Multiple Norovirus Dose-Response Models and Implications for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

The application of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to understand and mitigate risks associated with norovirus is increasingly common as there is a high frequency of outbreaks worldwide. A key component of QMRA is the dose-response analysis, which is the mathematical characterization of the association between dose and outcome. For Norovirus, multiple dose-response models are available that assume either a disaggregated or an aggregated intake dose. This work reviewed the dose-response models currently used in QMRA, and compared predicted risks from waterborne exposures (recreational and drinking) using all available dose-response models. The results found that the majority of published QMRAs of norovirus use the ₁ F₁ hypergeometric dose-response model with α = 0.04, β = 0.055. This dose-response model predicted relatively high risk estimates compared to other dose-response models for doses in the range of 1-1,000 genomic equivalent copies. The difference in predicted risk among dose-response models was largest for small doses, which has implications for drinking water QMRAs where the concentration of norovirus is low. Based on the review, a set of best practices was proposed to encourage the careful consideration and reporting of important assumptions in the selection and use of dose-response models in QMRA of norovirus. Finally, in the absence of one best norovirus dose-response model, multiple models should be used to provide a range of predicted outcomes for probability of infection.

Risk assessment, risk management and risk-based monitoring following a reported accidental release of poliovirus in Belgium, September to November 2014

On 6 September 2014, the accidental release of 10(13) infectious wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3) particles by a vaccine production plant in Belgium was reported. WPV3 was released into the sewage system and discharged directly to a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and subsequently into rivers that flowed to the Western Scheldt and the North Sea. No poliovirus was detected in samples from the WWTP, surface waters, mussels or sewage from the Netherlands. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) showed that the infection risks resulting from swimming in Belgium waters were above 50% for several days and that the infection risk by consuming shellfish harvested in the eastern part of the Western Scheldt warranted a shellfish cooking advice. We conclude that the reported release of WPV3 has neither resulted in detectable levels of poliovirus in any of the samples nor in poliovirus circulation in the Netherlands. This QMRA showed that relevant data on water flows were not readily available and that prior assumptions on dilution factors were overestimated. A QMRA should have been performed by all vaccine production facilities before starting up large-scale culture of WPV to be able to implement effective interventions when an accident happens.

QMRA and water safety management: review of application in drinking water systems

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the assessment of microbial risks when model inputs and estimated health impacts are explicitly quantified, is a valuable tool to support water safety plans (WSP). In this paper, research studies undertaken on the application of QMRA in drinking water systems were reviewed, highlighting their relevance for WSP. The important elements for practical implementation include: the data requirements to achieve sufficient certainty to support decision-making; level of expertise necessary to undertake the required analysis; and the accessibility of tools to support wider implementation, hence these aspects were the focus of the review. Recommendations to support the continued and growing application of QMRA to support risk management in the water sector are provided.

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation.

Fate of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli from Faecal Sources in Surface Water and Probability of Human Exposure through Swimming

The goal of this study was to determine the fate of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) emitted from faecal sources in surface water, and the probability of human exposure through swimming. Concentrations of ESBL-EC were measured in recreational waters and in source waters, being water in ditches surrounding poultry farms and municipal wastewater. Additionally, the potential of ESBL-EC in source waters to reach recreational waters located downstream of these sources was modeled. Modeled ESBL-EC concentrations in recreational waters appeared to be mostly determined by the concentrations in the source waters and by subsequent dilution in surface water, and less by inactivation. The mean (95%) risk of human exposure to ESBL-EC per person per swimming event, as assessed from measured ESBL-EC concentrations in recreational waters, was 0.16 (0.89) for men, 0.13 (0.72) for women and 0.20 (0.95) for children. Similar exposure risks were estimated for hypothetical recreational waters containing 100- or 1000-times diluted source water, located 10 days water travel time downstream of the sources. Human exposure to ESBL-EC through swimming is likely, if recreational waters are located downstream of poultry farms and municipal wastewater discharge points.

Characterizing the concentration of Cryptosporidium in Australian surface waters for setting health-based targets for drinking water treatment

It is proposed that the next revision of the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines will include 'health-based targets', where the required level of potable water treatment quantitatively relates to the magnitude of source water pathogen concentrations. To quantify likely Cryptosporidium concentrations in southern Australian surface source waters, the databases for 25 metropolitan water supplies with good historical records, representing a range of catchment sizes, land use and climatic regions were mined. The distributions and uncertainty intervals for Cryptosporidium concentrations were characterized for each site. Then, treatment targets were quantified applying the framework recommended in the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-Water Quality 2011. Based on total oocyst concentrations, and not factoring in genotype or physiological state information as it relates to infectivity for humans, the best estimates of the required level of treatment, expressed as log10 reduction values, ranged among the study sites from 1.4 to 6.1 log10. Challenges associated with relying on historical monitoring data for defining drinking water treatment requirements were identified. In addition, the importance of quantitative microbial risk assessment input assumptions on the quantified treatment targets was investigated, highlighting the need for selection of locally appropriate values.

Microbial risk assessment of drinking water based on hydrodynamic modelling of pathogen concentrations in source water

Norovirus contamination of drinking water sources is an important cause of waterborne disease outbreaks. Knowledge on pathogen concentrations in source water is needed to assess the ability of a drinking water treatment plant (DWTP) to provide safe drinking water. However, pathogen enumeration in source water samples is often not sufficient to describe the source water quality. In this study, the norovirus concentrations were characterised at the contamination source, i.e. in sewage discharges. Then, the transport of norovirus within the water source (the river Göta älv in Sweden) under different loading conditions was simulated using a hydrodynamic model. Based on the estimated concentrations in source water, the required reduction of norovirus at the DWTP was calculated using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The required reduction was compared with the estimated treatment performance at the DWTP. The average estimated concentration in source water varied between 4.8×10(2) and 7.5×10(3) genome equivalents L(-1); and the average required reduction by treatment was between 7.6 and 8.8 Log10. The treatment performance at the DWTP was estimated to be adequate to deal with all tested loading conditions, but was heavily dependent on chlorine disinfection, with the risk of poor reduction by conventional treatment and slow sand filtration. To our knowledge, this is the first article to employ discharge-based QMRA, combined with hydrodynamic modelling, in the context of drinking water.

QMRAcatch: Microbial Quality Simulation of Water Resources including Infection Risk Assessment

Given the complex hydrologic dynamics of water catchments and conflicts between nature protection and public water supply, models may help to understand catchment dynamics and evaluate contamination scenarios and may support best environmental practices and water safety management. A catchment model can be an educative tool for investigating water quality and for communication between parties with different interests in the catchment. This article introduces an interactive computational tool, QMRAcatch, that was developed to simulate concentrations in water resources of , a human-associated microbial source tracking (MST) marker, enterovirus, norovirus, , and as target microorganisms and viruses (TMVs). The model domain encompasses a main river with wastewater discharges and a floodplain with a floodplain river. Diffuse agricultural sources of TMVs that discharge into the main river are not included in this stage of development. The floodplain river is fed by the main river and may flood the plain. Discharged TMVs in the river are subject to dilution and temperature-dependent degradation. River travel times are calculated using the Manning-Gauckler-Strickler formula. Fecal deposits from wildlife, birds, and visitors in the floodplain are resuspended in flood water, runoff to the floodplain river, or infiltrate groundwater. Fecal indicator and MST marker data facilitate calibration. Infection risks from exposure to the pathogenic TMVs by swimming or drinking water consumption are calculated, and the required pathogen removal by treatment to meet a health-based quality target can be determined. Applicability of QMRAcatch is demonstrated by calibrating the tool for a study site at the River Danube near Vienna, Austria, using field TMV data, including a sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the model outcomes.

Multidrug-Resistant and Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli in Dutch Surface Water and Wastewater

OBJECTIVE

The goal of the current study was to gain insight into the prevalence and concentrations of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) Escherichia coli in Dutch surface water, and to explore the role of wastewater as AMR contamination source.

METHODS

The prevalence of AMR E. coli was determined in 113 surface water samples obtained from 30 different water bodies, and in 33 wastewater samples obtained at five health care institutions (HCIs), seven municipal wastewater treatment plants (mWWTPs), and an airport WWTP. Overall, 846 surface water and 313 wastewater E. coli isolates were analysed with respect to susceptibility to eight antimicrobials (representing seven different classes): ampicillin, cefotaxime, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, and chloramphenicol.

RESULTS

Among surface water isolates, 26% were resistant to at least one class of antimicrobials, and 11% were multidrug-resistant (MDR). In wastewater, the proportions of AMR/MDR E. coli were 76%/62% at HCIs, 69%/19% at the airport WWTP, and 37%/27% and 31%/20% in mWWTP influents and effluents, respectively. Median concentrations of MDR E. coli were 2.2×10(2), 4.0×10(4), 1.8×10(7), and 4.1×10(7) cfu/l in surface water, WWTP effluents, WWTP influents and HCI wastewater, respectively. The different resistance types occurred with similar frequencies among E. coli from surface water and E. coli from municipal wastewater. By contrast, among E. coli from HCI wastewater, resistance to cefotaxime and resistance to ciprofloxacin were significantly overrepresented compared to E. coli from municipal wastewater and surface water. Most cefotaxime-resistant E. coliisolates produced ESBL. In two of the mWWTP, ESBL-producing variants were detected that were identical with respect to phylogenetic group, sequence type, AMR-profile, and ESBL-genotype to variants from HCI wastewater discharged onto the same sewer and sampled on the same day (A1/ST23/CTX-M-1, B23/ST131/CTX-M-15, D2/ST405/CTX-M-15).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our data show that MDR E. coli are omnipresent in Dutch surface water, and indicate that municipal wastewater significantly contributes to this occurrence.

Waterborne pathogens: detection methods and challenges

Waterborne pathogens and related diseases are a major public health concern worldwide, not only by the morbidity and mortality that they cause, but by the high cost that represents their prevention and treatment. These diseases are directly related to environmental deterioration and pollution. Despite the continued efforts to maintain water safety, waterborne outbreaks are still reported globally. Proper assessment of pathogens on water and water quality monitoring are key factors for decision-making regarding water distribution systems’ infrastructure, the choice of best water treatment and prevention waterborne outbreaks. Powerful, sensitive and reproducible diagnostic tools are developed to monitor pathogen contamination in water and be able to detect not only cultivable pathogens but also to detect the occurrence of viable but non-culturable microorganisms as well as the presence of pathogens on biofilms. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a helpful tool to evaluate the scenarios for pathogen contamination that involve surveillance, detection methods, analysis and decision-making. This review aims to present a research outlook on waterborne outbreaks that have occurred in recent years. This review also focuses in the main molecular techniques for detection of waterborne pathogens and the use of QMRA approach to protect public health.

Entero- and parechovirus distributions in surface water and probabilities of exposure to these viruses during water recreation

Numerous studies have reported quantitative data on viruses in surface waters generated using different methodologies. In the current study, the impact of the use of either cell culture-based or molecular-based methods in quantitative microbial risk assessment was assessed. Previously and newly generated data on the presence of infectious human enteroviruses (HEV) and enterovirus and parechovirus RNA were used to estimate distributions of virus concentrations in surface waters. Because techniques for the detection of infectious human parechoviruses (HPeV) in surface waters were not available, a 'Parallelogram Approach' was used to estimate their concentrations based on the ratio infectious HEV/HEV RNA. The obtained virus concentrations were then used to estimate the probability of exposure for children during recreation in such virus contaminated surface waters. Human enterovirus cell culture/PCR ratios ranged from 2.3 × 10(-3) to 0.28. This broad range of ratios indicates that care should be taken in assuming a fixed ratio for assessing the risk with PCR based virus concentrations. The probabilities of exposure to both enteroviruses and parechoviruses were calculated, using our Parallelogram Approach for the calculation of infectious parechoviruses. For both viruses it was observed that the detection method significantly influenced the probability of exposure. Based on the calculated culture data, PCR data, and the ingestion volume, it was estimated that the mean probabilities of exposure, of recreating children, to surface water containing viruses were 0.087 (infectious enteroviruses), 0.71 (enterovirus particles), 0.28 (parechovirus particles) and 0.025 (calculated infectious parechoviruses) per recreation event. The mean probabilities of exposure of children recreating in surface water from which drinking water is produced to infectious enteroviruses were estimated for nine locations and varied between 1.5 × 10(-4) - 0.09 per recreation event. In this study, the use of the rotavirus dose response relationship as a surrogate was avoided. Instead, the probabilities of exposure were derived as a function of the distributions of the calculated doses. Our 'Parallelogram Approach' was used to estimate the unavailable infectious parechovirus concentrations using Monte Carlo simulations, and the exposure assessment carried out showed that virus concentrations present in surface waters could pose a health risk for children and other vulnerable populations.

Microbial Contamination of Drinking Water and Human Health from Community Water Systems

A relatively short list of reference viral, bacterial and protozoan pathogens appears adequate to assess microbial risks and inform a system-based management of drinking waters. Nonetheless, there are data gaps, e.g. human enteric viruses resulting in endemic infection levels if poorly performing disinfection and/or distribution systems are used, and the risks from fungi. Where disinfection is the only treatment and/or filtration is poor, cryptosporidiosis is the most likely enteric disease to be identified during waterborne outbreaks, but generally non-human-infectious genotypes are present in the absence of human or calf fecal contamination. Enteric bacteria may dominate risks during major fecal contamination events that are ineffectively managed. Reliance on culture-based methods exaggerates treatment efficacy and reduces our ability to identify pathogens/indicators; however, next-generation sequencing and polymerase chain reaction approaches are on the cusp of changing that. Overall, water-based Legionella and non-tuberculous mycobacteria probably dominate health burden at exposure points following the various societal uses of drinking water.