The necessary role of the autopsy in cardiovascular epidemiology

Modified-Weight Healthy Eating Index-2015 Scores Are More Strongly Associated With Mortality Risk Than Standard Scores

BACKGROUND

Various diet quality scores are consistently and similarly associated with mortality risk. Emerging evidence suggests that individual diet quality components are differentially associated with mortality risk, but it is unclear whether or not modified weights reflective of relative component differences would strengthen mortality associations.

OBJECTIVE

This study examined whether Healthy Eating Index 2015 (HEI-2015) scores with modified (vs standard) component weights are differentially associated with mortality risk.

DESIGN

This was a longitudinal analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988-94) with 23 years of mortality follow-up. The HEI-2015 and modified-weight scores were calculated from one 24-hour recall. The a priori Key Facets HEI was a subset score equivalently weighting fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and seafood and plant proteins. In the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression-weighted HEI, components were assigned weights reflecting relative mortality risk associations.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

Analyses included 10,789 US adults (aged 20 years and older) who were not pregnant and without prior diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, or chronic kidney disease diagnoses.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality risk were the primary outcomes examined.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Three energy-adjusted HEI scores were assigned to quintiles; covariate-adjusted sex-stratified Cox models with age as the timescale assessed associations between and trends across quintiles of HEI scores and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality risk.

RESULTS

Modified-weight HEI scores were associated with 23% to 38% reduced all-cause mortality risk in the highest vs lowest quintile, whereas comparisons were only significant for women (Key Facets P = 0.02 and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression-weighted P = 0.001; for men P = 0.06 on both scores), trends across quintiles of modified-weight scores were significant for men and women. The HEI-2015 was not significantly associated with all-cause mortality risk, and none of the scores were associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Only modified-weight HEI scores were associated with reduced all-cause mortality risk. Findings suggest modified diet quality weighting schemes warrant further examination to determine their replicability.

The need for integrated research autopsies in the era of precision oral medicine

BACKGROUND

Autopsy has benefited the practice of medicine for centuries; however, its use to advance the practice of oral health care is relatively limited. In the era of precision oral medicine, the research autopsy is poised to play an important role in understanding oral-systemic health, including infectious disease, autoimmunity, craniofacial genetics, and cancer.

TYPES OF STUDIES REVIEWED

The authors reviewed relevant articles that used medical and dental research autopsies to summarize the advantages of minimally invasive autopsies of dental, oral, and craniofacial tissues and to outline practices for supporting research autopsies of the oral and craniofacial complex.

RESULTS

The authors provide a historical summary of research autopsy in dentistry and provide a perspective on the value of autopsies for high-resolution multiomic studies to benefit precision oral medicine. As the promise of high-resolution multiomics is being realized, there is a need to integrate the oral and craniofacial complex into the practice of autopsy in medicine. Furthermore, the collaboration of autopsy centers with researchers will accelerate the understanding of dental, oral, and craniofacial tissues as part of the whole body.

CONCLUSIONS

Autopsies must integrate oral and craniofacial tissues as part of biobanking procedures. As new technologies allow for high-resolution, multimodal phenotyping of human samples, using optimized sampling procedures will allow for unprecedented understanding of common and rare dental, oral, and craniofacial diseases in the future.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the oral cavity as a site for viral infection and transmission potential; this was only discovered via clinical autopsies. The realization of the integrated autopsy's value in full body health initiatives will benefit patients across the globe.

A prospective study of healthful and unhealthful plant-based diet and risk of overall and cause-specific mortality

PURPOSE

Although emphasis has recently been placed on the importance of diet high in plant-based foods, the association between plant-based diet and long-term risk of overall and cause-specific mortality has been less studied. We aimed to investigate whether plant-based diet was associated with lower death risk.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study used data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Diet was assessed using 24 h dietary recalls. We created three plant-based diet indices including an overall plant-based diet index (PDI), a healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI), and an unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI). Deaths from baseline until December 31, 2015, were identified. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

We documented 4904 deaths among 40,074 participants after a median follow-up of 7.8 years. Greater adherence to PDI was associated with lower risk of overall (HR comparing extreme quintiles 0.80, 95% CI 0.73, 0.89, p_trend < 0.001) and cancer-specific (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.55, 0.85, p_trend < 0.001) mortality. These inverse associations remained for hPDI and overall mortality with a HR of 0.86 (95% CI 0.77, 0.95, p_trend = 0.001), but not for cancer or CVD mortality. Conversely, uPDI was associated with higher risk of total (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.19, 1.48, p_trend < 0.001) and CVD-specific (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.12, 1.79, p_trend = 0.015) mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased intake of a plant-based diet rich in healthier plant foods is associated with lower mortality risk, whereas a plant-based diet that emphasizes less-healthy plant foods is associated with high mortality risk among US adults.

Increasing Mortality From Premature Coronary Artery Disease in Women in the Rural United States

Background

Previous reports have described a leveling off of mortality from premature coronary artery disease (CAD). In recent years, the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors has increased in rural communities and young adults.

Methods and Results

We extracted CAD mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide‐Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database from 1999 to 2017, focusing on mortality from premature CAD (defined as <65 years of age in women) and urban–rural differences. Variations in mortality rates over time, assessed with Joinpoint regression modeling, are expressed as estimated annual percentage change (95% CI) and stratified by urbanization, sex, age, and race. Age‐adjusted mortality rates decreased for women and men. Stratification by urbanization revealed that premature CAD mortality is stagnating among women in rural areas. However, this stagnation conceals a statistically significant increase in CAD mortality rates since 2009 in women aged 55 to 64 years (estimated annual percentage change: +1.4%; 95% CI, +0.3% to +2.5%) and since 1999 in women aged 45 to 54 years (estimated annual percentage change: +0.6%; 95% CI, +0.2% to 1.0%). Since 1999, mortality has been stagnating in the youngest group (aged 35–44 years; estimated annual percentage change: +0.2%; 95% CI, −0.4% to +0.8%). Stratification by race indicated an increase in mortality rates among white rural women. Premature CAD mortality remains consistently higher in the rural versus urban United States, regardless of sex, race, and age group.

Conclusions

Premature CAD mortality rates have declined over time. However, stratification by sex and urbanization reveals disparities that would otherwise remain concealed: CAD mortality rates have increased among women from rural areas since at least 2009.

Ultra-processed food intake and mortality in the USA: results from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988-1994)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between ultra-processed food intake and all-cause mortality and CVD mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults.

DESIGN

Prospective analyses of reported frequency of ultra-processed food intake in 1988-1994 and all-cause mortality and CVD mortality through 2011.

SETTING

The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988-1994).ParticipantsAdults aged ≥20 years (n 11898).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 19 years, individuals in the highest quartile of frequency of ultra-processed food intake (e.g. sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened beverages, sweetened milk, sausage or other reconstructed meats, sweetened cereals, confectionery, desserts) had a 31% higher risk of all-cause mortality, after adjusting for demographic and socio-economic confounders and health behaviours (adjusted hazard ratio=1·31; 95% CI 1·09, 1·58; P-trend = 0·001). No association with CVD mortality was observed (P-trend=0·86).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher frequency of ultra-processed food intake was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality in a representative sample of US adults. More longitudinal studies with dietary data reflecting the modern food supply are needed to confirm our results.

Healthy Plant-Based Diets Are Associated with Lower Risk of All-Cause Mortality in US Adults

Background

Plant-based diets, often referred to as vegetarian diets, are associated with health benefits. However, the association with mortality is less clear.

Objective

We investigated associations between plant-based diet indexes and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults.

Methods

Analyses were based on 11,879 participants (20-80 y of age) from NHANES III (1988-1994) linked to data on all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality through 2011. We constructed an overall plant-based diet index (PDI), which assigns positive scores for plant foods and negative scores for animal foods, on the basis of a food-frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. We also constructed a healthful PDI (hPDI), in which only healthy plant foods received positive scores, and a less-healthful (unhealthy) PDI (uPDI), in which only less-healthful plant foods received positive scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between plant-based diet consumption in 1988-1994 and subsequent mortality. We tested for effect modification by sex.

Results

In the overall sample, PDI and uPDI were not associated with all-cause or cardiovascular disease mortality after controlling for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and health behaviors. However, among those with an hPDI score above the median, a 10-unit increase in hPDI was associated with a 5% lower risk in all-cause mortality in the overall study population (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.91, 0.98) and among women (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.99), but not among men (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.01). There was no effect modification by sex (P-interaction > 0.10).

Conclusions

A nonlinear association between hPDI and all-cause mortality was observed. Healthy plant-based diet scores above the median were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality in US adults. Future research exploring the impact of quality of plant-based diets on long-term health outcomes is necessary.

How to prevent SCD in the young?

Sudden cardiac death in the young (SCDY) is always a devastating event. The death is sudden and unexpected and often in a person who was thought to be healthy. In recent years our understanding of these tragic events have drastically improved; 10-20years ago we did not know how often SCD occurred in the young, and we had sparse knowledge on the role of inheritance. We have found that SCD corresponds to 7% of all deaths with an overall (highest possible) incidence rate of 2.8 per 100,000 person-years (autopsy rate of sudden death cases of 75%). This incidence rate is higher than in the Veneto region (1.0), in the Netherlands (1.6), and in the UK (1.8), but can be explained by differences in definition and methodological factors. Cause of death in SCDY also differs to some extent between countries. Recent data suggest that there are identifiable risk factors for SCDY such as symptoms, comorbidities and polypharmacy. SCDY is to some extent preventable and this can be achieved through several initiatives: 1. better OCHA treatment including readily available AEDs, 2. family screening on the families left behind, and 3. better diagnostics and treatment for patients at risk for SCDY.

A Safer Cigarette? A Comparative Study. A Consensus Report

This special issue describes the scientific progress and scientific review process to develop a safer cigarette. A peer-review panel, the ECLIPSE Expert Panel, was convened to critically review the potential health hazards of this new cigarette to a reference, conventional cigarette that bums tobacco. This new cigarette is lit and smoked much like other cigarettes, but it burns very little tobacco and paper. Also, unlike other cigarettes, it does not burn down to a butt, nor does it produce loose ash. Such a product would be expected to have less "tar" and other combustion products than cigarettes that burn tobacco and should greatly reduce any sidestream smoke. This panel assessed the chemistry and physical characteristics, as well as the biological activity, of this new cigarette.

The importance of age groups in estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality: impact on trends in Switzerland between 1997 and 2011

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Monitoring trends of alcohol-attributable mortality is an integral part of the global strategy to reduce the harmful use of alcohol. However, mortality estimates based on different age ranges come to different conclusions. This study examined the impact of including different age ranges in terms of directions of trends of alcohol-attributable mortality during 14 years in Switzerland.

METHOD

Alcohol-attributable mortality was estimated at four time-points between 1997 and 2011 using the Global Burden of Disease 2010 methodology. Estimates were obtained for two age groups: 15-64 years and the total adult population (15 years and older).

RESULTS

Alcohol-attributable mortality among 15-64-year-olds decreased [1997: 1334 deaths, confidence interval (CI) = 1237-1432; 2011: 1019 deaths, CI = 964-1073; trend per year odds ratio (OR) = 0.99, P < 0.001]. In contrast, alcohol-attributable mortality among those 65 and older increased in the same time-period (1997: 581 deaths, CI = -196 to 1357; 2011: 1664 deaths, CI = 957-2372; OR = 1.07, P< 0.001), resulting in an overall increase of alcohol-attributable mortality for 15+ year-olds (1997: 1915 deaths, CI = 1133-2697; 2011: 2683, CI = 1973-3393; OR = 1.02, P < 0.001). The main shift in trends was due to changes in the mixture (e.g. hypertension, ischaemic heart disease) of cardiovascular diseases over time among those 65+ years old.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in alcohol-attributable mortality may yield qualitatively different results based on the upper age limit for deaths set for these estimates. Global trends of alcohol-attributable mortality between 1997 and 2011 were influenced heavily by changes in the mixture of deaths across cardiovascular diseases. Trends for alcohol-attributable mortality and cross-country comparisons should be reported separately for 15-64 and 65+ year-olds.

Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Declines in the United States From 1979 Through 2011: Evidence for Stagnation in Young Adults, Especially Women

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have fallen dramatically over the past 4 decades in the Western world. However, recent data from the United States and elsewhere suggest a plateauing of CHD incidence and mortality among young women. We therefore examined recent trends in CHD mortality rates in the United States according to age and sex.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed mortality data between 1979 and 2011 for US adults ≥25 years of age. We calculated age-specific CHD mortality rates and compared estimated annual percentage changes during 3 approximate decades of data (1979-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2011). We then used Joinpoint regression modeling to assess changes in trends over time on the basis of inflection points of the mortality rates. Adults ≥65 years of age showed consistent mortality declines, which became even steeper after 2000 (women, -5.0%; men, -4.4%). In contrast, young men and women (<55 years of age) initially showed a clear decline in CHD mortality from 1979 until 1989 (estimated annual percentage change, -5.5% in men and -4.6% in women). However, the 2 subsequent decades saw stagnation with minimal improvement. Notably, young women demonstrated no improvements between 1990 and 1999 (estimated annual percentage change, 0.1%) and only -1% estimated annual percentage change since 2000. Joinpoint analyses provided consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

The dramatic decline in CHD mortality since 1979 conceals major heterogeneities. CHD death rates in older groups are now falling steeply. However, young adults have experienced frustratingly small decreases in CHD mortality rates since 1990. The drivers of these major differences in CHD mortality trends by age and sex merit urgent study.

Autopsy in Islam and current practice in Arab Muslim countries

Autopsy, or post-mortem examination, is the dissection of a dead body. It is performed for many reasons. Attitudes toward dead bodies vary with religious beliefs and cultural and geographical backgrounds. We have carried out an extensive literature review to determine the Islamic view and current practice of Autopsy, in at least four Arab countries which published their experiences. Several research articles have studied the history of Islamic Autopsy as well as the current situation and legal debates about it. The overwhelming conclusion is that data is lacking. More must be published from Arabic Muslim countries and more research done to correct misconceptions. We also recommend more application of non-invasive Autopsy.

Updates in growth hormone treatment and mortality

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review the literature with regard to mortality in patients with hypopituitarism with a focus on the role of growth hormone (GH) deficiency and therapy.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mortality is increased in hypopituitarism, particularly in female patients. In recent years mortality rates appear to be trending downwards towards that of the general population. Recent studies from retrospective or postmarketing surveillance studies have suggested that patients who receive GH therapy may not have increased mortality. Recent studies regarding mortality in paediatric patients treated with GH are conflicting and this area needs further study.

SUMMARY

There are several important limitations of available data regarding mortality in hypopituitarism and even more so in the impact of GH therapy, which need to be taken into account when interpreting the available data. The data regarding mortality in patients treated with GH as children is an area of much debate and will need further studies to clarify, given the conflicting reports in recent studies.

Coronary optical coherence tomography: minimally invasive virtual histology as part of targeted post-mortem computed tomography angiography

Social, cultural and practical barriers to conventional invasive autopsy have led to considerable interest in the development of minimally invasive radiological techniques as an alternative to the invasive autopsy for determining the cause of death. Critical to accurate diagnosis in this context is detailed examination of coronary anatomy and pathology. Current computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging approaches have significantly advanced minimally invasive autopsy practice but have limited spatial resolution. This prohibits assessment at a microscopic level, meaning that histological assessment is still required for detailed analysis of, for example, coronary plaque rupture or dissection. Coronary optical coherence tomography (OCT) is used in the living during percutaneous coronary interventions to provide high-resolution coronary imaging, but this technique for obtaining virtual histology has not, to date, been translated into minimally invasive autopsy practice. We present a first description of minimally invasive post-mortem coronary OCT and discuss the potential for this technique to advance current practice.

Cardiovascular profile and events of US adults 20-49 years with HIV: results from the NHANES 1999-2008

The incidence of vascular events in HIV-infected individuals is increasing. We investigated whether there is a higher prevalence of vascular risk factors in the adult US population with HIV compared to uninfected controls that could explain some of the increased vascular events. We obtained prevalence estimates of vascular risk factors, stratified by the HIV status, in sampled adults aged 20-49 years from the 1999 to 2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Estimates were weighted to account for oversampling and nonresponse. Logistic regression models with adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic status were created to adjust for confounders. The analysis included 12,339 US adults, 76 with HIV infection. The weighted seroprevalence of HIV was 0.48% (95% CI 0.33-0.65). In univariate analysis, HIV infection was more prevalent in non-Hispanic blacks (odds ratio [OR] 7.4, 95% CI 3.6-15.2), men (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.42-4.89), the physically inactive (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-3.0), and current smokers (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.4). Increased waist circumference (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-1.0) was less common in HIV-infected individuals, although controlling for sex and ethnicity differences, this difference became nonsignificant (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.3-1.2). Further controlling for differences in income and education rendered the associations with smoking and physical inactivity nonsignificant, but revealed associations of HIV infection with hypertension (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.0-6.0) and diabetes (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.1-16.1). These results underscore the need to further investigate the role of cardiovascular risk factors in the growing HIV population.

Does growth hormone replacement therapy reduce mortality in adults with growth hormone deficiency? Data from the Dutch National Registry of Growth Hormone Treatment in adults

CONTEXT

Adults with GH deficiency (GHD) have a decreased life expectancy. The effect of GH treatment on mortality remains to be established.

OBJECTIVE

This nationwide cohort study investigates the effect of GH treatment on all-cause and cause-specific mortality and analyzes patient characteristics influencing mortality in GHD adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Patients in the Dutch National Registry of Growth Hormone Treatment in Adults were retrospectively monitored (1985-2009) and subdivided into treatment (n = 2229), primary (untreated, n = 109), and secondary control (partly treated, n = 356) groups.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated for all-cause, malignancy, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Expected mortality was obtained from cause, sex, calendar year, and age-specific death rates from national death and population counts.

RESULTS

In the treatment group, 95 patients died compared to 74.6 expected [SMR 1.27 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.56)]. Mortality was higher in women than in men. After exclusion of high-risk patients, the SMR for CVD mortality remained increased in women. Mortality due to malignancies was not elevated. In the control groups mortality was not different from the background population. Univariate analyses demonstrated sex, GHD onset, age, and underlying diagnosis as influencing factors.

CONCLUSIONS

GHD men receiving GH treatment have a mortality rate not different from the background population. In women, after exclusion of high-risk patients, mortality was not different from the background population except for CVD. Mortality due to malignancies was not elevated in adults receiving GH treatment. Next to gender, the heterogeneous etiology is of influence on mortality in GHD adults with GH treatment.

Improving the public health utility of global cardiovascular mortality data: the rise of ischemic heart disease

BACKGROUND

High-quality, cause-specific mortality data are critical for effective health policy. Yet vague cause of death codes, such as heart failure, are highly prevalent in global mortality data. We propose an empirical method correcting mortality data for the use of heart failure as an underlying cause of death.

METHODS

We performed a regression analysis stratified by sex, age, and country development status on all available ICD-10 mortality data, consisting of 142 million deaths across 838 country-years. The analysis yielded predicted fractions with which to redistribute heart failure-attributed deaths to the appropriate underlying causes of death. Age-adjusted death rates and rank causes of death before and after correction were calculated.

RESULTS

Heart failure accounts for 3.1% of all deaths in the dataset. Ischemic heart disease has the highest redistribution proportion for ages 15-49 and 50+ in both sexes and country development levels, causing gains in age-adjusted death rates in both developed and developing countries. COPD and hypertensive heart disease also make significant rank gains. Reproductive-aged women in developing country-years yield the most diverse range of heart failure causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic heart disease becomes the No. 1 cause of death in several developed countries, including France and Japan, underscoring the cardiovascular epidemic in high-income countries. Age-adjusted death rate increases for ischemic heart disease in low- and middle-income countries, such as Argentina and South Africa, highlight the rise of the cardiovascular epidemic in regions where public health efforts have historically focused on infectious diseases. This method maximizes the use of available data, providing better evidence on major causes of death to inform policymakers in allocating finite resources.

[Autopsies 2010. Is death still teaching the living?]

Autopsy rates have been declining for decades all over the world; however, the causes of this decline have not been clearly elucidated. This negative trend could cause wider problems as yet unthought of. Autopsies serve medical training and specialist medical training, quality management, patient care systems as well as cause of death statistics, thereby ensuring good medical practice and a balanced allocation of funds. The aim of this article is to present autopsies and their impact on teaching, patient care and epidemiology in an objective manner. Heeding the crucial points could have a positive effect on the entire health system with a minimum of effort, while ignoring them could have adverse consequences for physicians, patients and their relatives, as well as society as a whole.

Mortality in patients with pituitary disease

Pituitary disease is associated with increased mortality predominantly due to vascular disease. Control of cortisol secretion and GH hypersecretion (and cardiovascular risk factor reduction) is key in the reduction of mortality in patients with Cushing's disease and acromegaly, retrospectively. For patients with acromegaly, the role of IGF-I is less clear-cut. Confounding pituitary hormone deficiencies such as gonadotropins and particularly ACTH deficiency (with higher doses of hydrocortisone replacement) may have a detrimental effect on outcome in patients with pituitary disease. Pituitary radiotherapy is a further factor that has been associated with increased mortality (particularly cerebrovascular). Although standardized mortality ratios in pituitary disease are falling due to improved treatment, mortality for many conditions are still elevated above that of the general population, and therefore further measures are needed. Craniopharyngioma patients have a particularly increased risk of mortality as a result of the tumor itself and treatment to control tumor growth; this is a key area for future research in order to optimize the outcome for these patients.

Pulmonary embolism—temporal changes

BACKGROUND

The clinical diagnosis of pulmonary thromboembolism (PE) is notoriously inaccurate, with many cases either wrongly diagnosed (overdiagnosed) or missed (underdiagnosed), and autopsy is still regarded as the diagnostic "gold standard." Unfortunately, statistics from recent, larger autopsy studies are scarce and, moreover, the results of such studies are often controversial.

METHODS

The autopsy incidence of PE from 1960 to 2005 was retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

In the six reference years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2005, a total of 3877 adult autopsies were performed. PE was found in 628 patients; the overall incidence of PE in the six reference years was 16.2%. The incidence showed a steady decline, from 19.2% in 1960 to 10.0% in 2005. It was higher in women (19.4%) than in men (13.7%). The average age at the time of death for all 628 patients with PE was 65.9 years (64.3 in men; 67.3 in women). It showed a tendency to increase over the period studied, from 63.7 years in 1960 to 69.6 years in 2005. We also assessed variation of PE deaths throughout the year. The incidence was highest in November (21.4%) and lowest in May (11.1%) and in March (12.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm those of most pathological studies, in that the autopsy incidence of PE is declining. In patients dying with PE, the underlying causes have been more or less the same over the 45 years covered by this study. Despite the progress in clinical diagnostic approaches, PE remains an ill-diagnosed condition.

Understanding the coronary heart disease versus total cardiovascular mortality paradox: a method to enhance the comparability of cardiovascular death statistics in the United States

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) represents the largest share of cardiovascular disease in the United States, but there are conspicuous discrepancies between CHD and total cardiovascular death rates across the states, possibly due in part to variations in physician assignment of causes of death. Our aim was to identify exogenous individual- and community-level predictors of cause-of-death assignment and variability and to use these predictors to improve the comparability of CHD mortality estimates across states.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a multinomial logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of individual- and community-level factors on the likelihood of a death being certified as 1 of 3 ill-defined clusters (general atherosclerosis and unspecified heart disease, heart failure, and cardiac arrest) relative to being certified as CHD. The individual-level variables were the decedent's race, sex, age, education, and place of death; the community-level variable was the number of cardiologists per capita. We used the model to estimate state-level CHD rates that are standardized with regard to the levels of individual- and community-level determinants of cause-of-death assignment. Decedents who died in hospitals and in counties with more cardiologists per capita were more likely to be assigned to CHD than to the ill-defined categories, as were white males relative to other race-sex combinations. Adjustment for these factors resulted in substantially improved correlation between death rates for CHD and all cardiovascular causes. Increases in CHD death rates across states after adjustment for external predictors of cause-of-death assignment ranged from 2% (North Dakota) to 72% (Washington, DC); New York had a decrease (1%) in CHD death rates after adjustment. Nationally, CHD death rates increased 10% for males and 15% for females. The total number of deaths in 2001 attributed to CHD in patients over 30 years of age rose from 433,625 to 489,836 after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater presence of medical knowledge at the time of death, reflected by place of death and cardiologists per capita, reduces the use of the ill-defined cardiovascular clusters. Racial and gender effects on CHD assignment may reflect disparities in access to care and quality of care. By adjusting for differentials in these parameters, a comparable and consistent set of CHD mortality estimates can be created. The role of the exogenous predictors in validity and comparability of cause-of-death statistics should be confirmed in carefully designed validation autopsy studies.

Do we know what people die of in the emergency department?

OBJECTIVE

To establish the discrepancy rate between the predicted cause of death and the actual cause of death as determined by postmortem examination result, for all deaths in the emergency department reported to the Scottish Procurator Fiscal and subsequently undergoing postmortem examination.

METHODS

A prospective study of all patients who were dead on arrival or died in the emergency department of a busy Glasgow hospital over a 12 month period. The most senior emergency physician present at the time of death predicted the cause of death. This was then compared to the actual postmortem examination determined cause of death and was considered either to be correct or incorrect.

RESULTS

During the study period, 146 patients were pronounced dead in the department. Of these, 81 patients (age range 39-99 years, median 71; male:female 2.5:1) had death certificates issued, 63 patients (age range 26 days to 99 years, median 48; male:female 2.4:1) had a postmortem performed by the forensic pathologist, and two patients underwent a "view and grant". Of the 63 deaths reported to the Procurator Fiscal, the emergency physician attributed 51 (80.1%) to non-trauma, 9 (14.2%) to trauma, and in 3 (4.7%) cases were uncertain. Of the 63 (39.7%) deaths, 25 were inaccurately predicted (99% confidence interval 24.3% to 56.6%; p<0.0)1. Cardiovascular related and drugs poisoning deaths occurred most commonly. They were also the most accurately predicted cause of deaths. Intracranial events, pulmonary thromboembolism, and airway obstruction were also frequently predicted, but were often wrong.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the difficulties in accurately identifying cause of death for patients who die suddenly. This could have implications for the accuracy of health service statistics.

Significant value of autopsy for quality management in cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVE

With recent advances in diagnostic imaging, the value of autopsy has been called into question. The aim of our study was to assess the current impact of autopsy for early postoperative quality management in cardiac surgery.

METHODS

Between 2000 and 2003, a total of 14,313 patients underwent cardiac surgery at our center. Of these, 898 patients (6.3%) died, and autopsy was performed in 468 cases (52.1%). Data from clinical and postmortem examination were prospectively analyzed regarding causes of death, postoperative complications, concomitant diseases, and surgery-associated pathologic findings.

RESULTS

Mean age was 68.7 years. Mean survival was 13.9 postoperative days. On autopsy, causes of death were cardiac in 49.8% of cases (n = 233), respiratory in 8.3% (n = 39), cerebral in 6.4% (n = 30), abdominal in 4.7% (n = 22), multiorgan failure or sepsis in 14.9% (n = 70), pulmonary embolism in 6.6% (n = 31), procedure associated in 8.3% (n = 39), and others in 0.9% (n = 4). Discrepancies between clinical and postmortem determinations of cause of death were found in 108 cases (23.1%). These were acute myocardial infarction (n = 38), low cardiac output (n = 9), respiratory (n = 8), cerebral (n = 5), abdominal (n = 7), multiorgan failure or sepsis (n = 12), pulmonary embolism (n = 18), and procedure associated (11). Clinically unrecognized postoperative complications were found in 364 cases (77.8%). Unknown concomitant diseases were found in 464 cases (99.1%), with potential therapeutic relevance in 90 cases (19.2%). In 85 cases (18.2%), autopsy examination revealed 96 premortem unrecognized surgery-associated pathologic findings.

CONCLUSION

A high overall discrepancy rate between premortem and autopsy diagnoses was recognized. Autopsy revealed clinically relevant information in a significant number of cases. Therefore autopsy remains essential for quality assessment in perioperative treatment.

Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy improves long-term survival in patients with unexplained syncope, cardiomyopathy, and a negative electrophysiologic study

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcomes of patients with unexplained syncope, ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy, and a negative electrophysiologic study (EPS).

BACKGROUND

EPS is frequently performed to evaluate syncope in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. Limited long-term data evaluating all-cause mortality in patients with no inducible arrhythmia or examining the potential benefits from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy are available.

METHODS

We evaluated 102 consecutive patients with unexplained syncope, cardiomyopathy, and a negative EPS from September 1996 to December 2000. A blinded matched case-control analysis utilized 51 of these patients (19 treated with an ICD and 32 matched controls treated with conventional therapy). We compared primary endpoint of death and documented cardiac arrest of patients treated with ICD therapy to matched controls.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. There were 14 primary events among the study population during a follow-up period of 44.3 +/- 20 months: 2 in the ICD group and 12 in the conventional therapy group. The hazard ratio for the risk of event in the ICD group compared with the conventional therapy group was 0.18 (95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.85; P = .04). Other comorbid conditions, including age, sex, ischemic etiology of heart failure, ejection fraction, and antiarrhythmic use, did not predict outcome. Appropriate ICD shocks occurred in 26% of patients at 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that empiric ICD therapy improves long-term outcomes in patients with unexplained syncope, ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy, and negative EPS.

Death certificate completion: how well are physicians trained and are cardiovascular causes overstated?

PURPOSE

To determine the ability of residents in completing death certificates correctly.

METHODS

A total of 4800 residents were asked to complete a survey and cause-of-death statement using a sample case of in-hospital death due to urosepsis, of whom 590 residents (12%) responded. A scoring scale designed based on instructions from the National Association of Medical Examiners and the American College of Pathologists was used to measure responses quantitatively.

RESULTS

Overall performance was poor, with only 23% (n = 137) of responses in the optimal scoring range. The average score was influenced significantly by level of residency training, as well as previous experience, prior formal training, and awareness of the guidelines regarding death certificate completion. Optimal scores correlated with level of residency training and prior formal training in death certificate completion, suggesting the benefits of experience and instruction. Forty-five percent (n = 267) of respondents incorrectly identified a cardiovascular event as the primary cause of death.

CONCLUSION

The residents in this study demonstrated suboptimal performance in death certificate completion. Cardiovascular events were often incorrectly identified as the primary cause of death. Formal training can improve performance and should be emphasized in medical schools and residencies.

Old and new cardiovascular risk factors: from unresolved issues to new opportunities

With the aim of identifying areas that may deserve some further thinking the present review deliberately points out controversial issues in cardiovascular research and risk assessment. In the first part of the review general aspects are addressed regarding the evaluation of risk factors. A first point of concern is the frequent practice of combining different vascular events and effects in different vascular beds into a single endpoint. Furthermore, verification of vascular events in clinical reality may be surprisingly inaccurate. Problems in risk assessment also arise from overlapping properties (shared pathophysiological pathways) of traditional risk factors like hypertension, obesity and diabetes. In the second part of the review unresolved issues concerning selected established and emerging risk factors are discussed. The difficulty of establishing causality in cardiovascular disease is addressed, using modification of LDL cholesterol and accumulating evidence for pleiotropic effects of the LDL cholesterol-lowering statins as an example. As an alternative or supplement to the notion of LDL-related cardiovascular risk it is proposed to distinguish between statin-sensitive and statin-insensitive cardiovascular risk. Finally the future prospects of selected new and emerging risk factors like CRP, homocysteine, asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), oxLDL, and isoprostanes are evaluated. In summary, imprecise terminology and varying definitions of "cardiovascular risk" may lead to a considerable blurring of our current risk estimates, which may also explain some presently controversial issues. With several new risk factors and substantial changes in lifestyle and treatment patterns on the horizon major changes in the hierarchy of risk factors may be inevitable.

Accuracy of Cause of Death Determination Without Forensic Autopsy Examination

Medical examiners and coroners commonly determine cause and manner of death without an autopsy examination. Some death certificates generated in this way may not state the correct cause and manner of death. From the case files of the Department of Forensic Medicine in Sydney, Australia, the authors retrospectively reviewed investigative information of all cases in a 6-month period that were initially considered natural deaths (429). The authors, blinded to autopsy results, accepted 261 cases as appropriate for certification without autopsy and assigned a cause of death to each. Per standard local practice, all cases had been autopsied. The actual causes of death as determined by autopsy were then revealed and compared with the presumed causes of death. Most presumed and actual causes of death were cardiovascular (94% and 80%, respectively). The majority of presumed causes of death were listed as ASCVD as the cases lacked features of a more specific cardiovascular process. A large majority of cases had a presumed cause of death of ischemic heart disease based on individual case details. The actual causes of death demonstrated a large breadth of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular disease processes, even though ischemic heart disease accounted for 62% of deaths. The presumed cause of death was completely wrong in 28% of cases. A nonnatural manner of death was present in 3% of cases. This study demonstrates that experienced forensic pathologists may generate erroneous death certificates for cases that are not autopsied.

Rates of postmortem examination in Austria

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Despite the importance of autopsies for diagnosing disease and determining cause of death, autopsy rates are decreasing in many countries. Furthermore, autopsy rates are often not distributed randomly between different regions within countries. In this study we analyzed an apparent nonrandom spatial distribution of autopsy rates in Austria for the period 1991-2000. We tested the new hypothesis that the rate of autopsies performed on people who die at home depends on the distance from the residence to the hospital or forensic institute where autopsies are performed.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the official mortality records for the years 1991-2000. Only persons who deceased in private residences were included. A logistic regression model was used.

RESULTS

Even controlling for variability in sex, age, date of death, and family status, the effect of distance significantly implied lower autopsy rates in the alpine parts of Austria.

CONCLUSIONS

This effect of distance may lead to artificially nonrandom mortality patterns in disease maps. As a consequence, the possibility of hypothesizing incorrect health risks to explain nonrandom mortality patterns increases.

Validation of biomarkers as early predictors of disease

The development and validation of biomarkers that link environmental exposures to the pathogenesis of human disease is a leading priority in the field of environmental research. The validation of biomarkers as early predictors of clinical disease can enhance health risk assessment and contribute to effective new disease prevention policies in environmental and occupational settings. The process of validating biomarkers involves dealing with a range of characteristics that include the intrinsic qualities of the biomarker, its determinants, and the analytic procedure. We discuss here a three phase approach to validation. The final phase, consisting of longitudinal studies, is reached after the biomarker has been determined to be technically reliable and after the effect of external variables on the association with the outcome has been evaluated. We provide some examples of biomarkers reputed to be early predictors of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We then present original data to support the potential of DNA adducts to predict cancer and show, through re-evaluation of the Italian database on cytogenetic biomarkers, a lack of association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in circulating lymphocytes and CVD mortality rates -- a finding that should not be considered conclusive. In general, whenever a biomarker has been determined to be a valid predictor of disease, it should be used in risk assessment and public health policy.

Are coroners' necropsies necessary? A prospective study examining whether a "view and grant" system of death certification could be introduced into England and Wales

AIMS

To determine whether the cause of death could be accurately predicted without the need for a necropsy, and thus to consider whether a "view and grant" system of issuing a cause of death could be introduced into England and Wales.

METHOD

A one year prospective necropsy study was performed incorporating 568 deaths. Before necropsy, in each case the cause of death was predicted from the available history without examination of the body, and this cause was then compared with the cause of death found at necropsy.

RESULTS

The ability of the pathologist involved in the study to predict a cause of death before necropsy, either while in the mortuary or as a paper exercise, was shown to vary between 61% and 74% of cases. After the necropsy, the number of correct predicted causes of death ranged from 39% to 46%. Ischaemic heart disease was found to be the most common and most accurately predicted cause of death. Some natural diseases were frequently misdiagnosed, whereas certain types of unnatural disease were always identified correctly.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the advantages and disadvantages of a view and grant system. Although it identifies a potential use of such a system, in some cases such as natural cardiac disease, because of the potentially high diagnostic error rate, the continuation of the present system of postmortem examination as part of the coroner's enquiry is recommended.

[Incidence and causes of sudden death in persons less than 36 years of age]

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological, clinical and pathological study of sudden death in children and young adults under 36 years old. SUBJECTS, MATERIAL AND METHOD: Sudden deaths between 1 and 35 years that occurred in Bizkaia (North of Spain) from 1991 to 1998 were analyzed. In all cases a complete forensic autopsy including histopathological, toxicological and occasionally microbiological studies were performed. Also, pathological antecedents were investigated.

RESULTS

107 sudden death cases between 1 and 35 years occurred, being the mortality rate of 2.4/100,000/year. Males were threefold at risk of sudden death than females. Mortality rate was higher in youngs than children. 4.5% of natural deaths were sudden deaths.43% were sudden cardiac deaths, and atheromatous coronary disease was the most frequent over 30 years. Myocardial diseases and conduction system abnormalities were common between 15 and 29 years. 39% were extracardiac sudden deaths. Infections were frequent in children, and epilepsy and asthma between 15 and 29 years. Intracraneal hemorrhage was also frequent. In 19 cases (18%), specially in children, the cause of death was unexplained. Cause of death was different according to gender and age.

CONCLUSIONS

Sudden death is infrequent in children and youngs, and causes are numerous. This study supports the importance of complete forensic autopsies in order to encourage epidemiological and preventive studies on sudden death.

Validation of death certificate diagnosis for coronary heart disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

The validity of the death certificate in identifying coronary heart disease deaths was evaluated using data from the community surveillance component of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC). Deaths in the four ARIC communities of Forsyth Co., NC; Jackson, MS; Minneapolis, MN; and Washington Co., MD were selected based on underlying cause of death codes as determined by the rules of the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Information about the deaths was gathered through informant interviews, physician or coroner questionnaires, and medical record abstraction, and was used to validate the cause of death. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of the death certificate classification of CHD death (ICD-9 codes 410-414 and 429.2) were estimated by comparison with the validated cause of death based on physician review of all available information. Results from 9 years of surveillance included a positive predictive value 0.67 (95% CI 0.66-0.68), sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83), and a false-positive rate (1-specificity) of 0.28 (95% CI 0.26-0.30). Comparing CHD deaths as defined by the death certificate with validated CHD deaths indicated that the death certificate overestimated CHD mortality by approximately 20% in the ARIC communities. Within subgroups, death certificate overestimation was reduced with advancing age (up to age 74), was consistent over time, was not dependent on gender, and exhibited considerable variation among communities.

Acp. Best practice no 155. Pathological investigation of deaths following surgery, anaesthesia, and medical procedures

The pathological investigation of deaths following surgery, anaesthesia, and medical procedures is discussed. The definition of "postoperative death" is examined and the classification of deaths following procedures detailed. The review of individual cases is described and the overall approach to necropsy and interpretation considered. There are specific sections dealing with the cardiovascular system (including air embolism, perioperative myocardial infarction, cardiac pacemakers, central venous catheters, cardiac surgery, heart valve replacement, angioplasty, and vascular surgery); respiratory system (postoperative pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, pneumothorax); central nervous system (dissection of cervical spinal cord), hepatobiliary and gastrointestinal system; musculoskeletal system; and head and neck region. Deaths associated with anaesthesia are classified and the specific problems of epidural anaesthesia and malignant hyperthermia discussed. The article concludes with a section on the recording of necropsy findings and their communication to clinicians and medicolegal authorities.