Advances in satellite remote sensing of environmental variables for epidemiological applications

Analysis of land surface temperature with land use and land cover and elevation from NASA MODIS satellite data: a case study of Bali, Indonesia

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) offers numerous land products of the Earth's datasets. On the other hand, researchers find it difficult to retrieve this data for specific places. The methods for extracting and analyzing land surface temperature (LST), land use and land cover (LULC), and elevation are presented in this study. The R commands provided make the time-consuming process of extracting data for specific places much more accessible. As a result, a statistical study of LST over Bali is shown as an example. Over the 15 regions of Bali, a quadratic polynomial identified five possible warming patterns, while a logistic regression model assessed the probability of warming. The findings suggest that 25.2% of Bali has warmed during the last two decades, with temperatures being highest in urban and built-up areas and deciduous forests and inversely associated with elevation. Global warming has sparked a lot of academic interest and has become a serious climate problem. The techniques proposed in this work simplify the extraction of LST, LULC, and elevation data from MODIS satellites. These approaches can also be used on other datasets with identical topologies, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aerosol optical depth (AOD), and night light data.

Spatial analysis of G.f.fuscipes abundance in Uganda using Poisson and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression models

BACKGROUND

Tsetse flies are the major vectors of human trypanosomiasis of the form Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and T.b.gambiense. They are widely spread across the sub-Saharan Africa and rendering a lot of challenges to both human and animal health. This stresses effective agricultural production and productivity in Africa. Delimiting the extent and magnitude of tsetse coverage has been a challenge over decades due to limited resources and unsatisfactory technology. In a bid to overcome these limitations, this study attempted to explore modelling skills that can be applied to spatially estimate tsetse abundance in the country using limited tsetse data and a set of remote-sensed environmental variables.

METHODOLOGY

Entomological data for the period 2008-2018 as used in the model were obtained from various sources and systematically assembled using a structured protocol. Data harmonisation for the purposes of responsiveness and matching was carried out. The key tool for tsetse trapping was itemized as pyramidal trap in many instances and biconical trap in others. Based on the spatially explicit assembled data, we ran two regression models; standard Poisson and Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP), to explore the associations between tsetse abundance in Uganda and several environmental and climatic covariates. The covariate data were constituted largely by satellite sensor data in form of meteorological and vegetation surrogates in association with elevation and land cover data. We finally used the Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model to predict tsetse abundance due to its superiority over the standard Poisson after model fitting and testing using the Vuong Non-Nested statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 1,187 tsetse sampling points were identified and considered as representative for the country. The model results indicated the significance and level of responsiveness of each covariate in influencing tsetse abundance across the study area. Woodland vegetation, elevation, temperature, rainfall, and dry season normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were important in determining tsetse abundance and spatial distribution at varied scales. The resultant prediction map shows scaled tsetse abundance with estimated fitted numbers ranging from 0 to 59 flies per trap per day (FTD). Tsetse abundance was found to be largest at low elevations, in areas of high vegetative activity, in game parks, forests and shrubs during the dry season. There was very limited responsiveness of selected predictors to tsetse abundance during the wet season, matching the known fact that tsetse disperse most significantly during wet season.

CONCLUSIONS

A methodology was advanced to enable compilation of entomological data for 10 years, which supported the generation of tsetse abundance maps for Uganda through modelling. Our findings indicate the spatial distribution of the G. f. fuscipes as; low 0-5 FTD (48%), medium 5.1-35 FTD (18%) and high 35.1-60 FTD (34%) grounded on seasonality. This approach, amidst entomological data shortages due to limited resources and absence of expertise, can be adopted to enable mapping of the vector to provide better decision support towards designing and implementing targeted tsetse and tsetse-transmitted African trypanosomiasis control strategies.

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.

Spatial variability of urban climate in response to quantitative trait of land cover based on GWR model

Land surface temperature and moisture are central components of the Earth's surface heat budget. China has experienced substantial land use/cover change that has led to deterioration of the urban microclimate, thus affecting global climate change. Understanding the spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between climate and land cover across a highly heterogeneous surface of urban landscapes is important for improving urban planning and management. This study used Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS data to explore the relationship of the three components (index-based built-up index (IBI); bare soil index (SI); and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) with the urban climate (land surface temperature (LST) and land surface moisture (LSM)) using both a global model (ordinary least squares (OLS)) and a local model (geographically weighted regression (GWR)) for a megacity in Southeast China. The global regression results showed that there were significant positive correlations between the LST and the IBI and SI, while significant negative correlations were observed between the LST and the NDVI; opposite results were observed for the LSM. The IBI is the factor having the greatest impact on the LST, while the SI is among the most important factors for the LSM. The local regression results showed that the response of urban climate to land surface is affected greatly by water areas, but the role of the water areas is impacted by their size and surrounding landscape patterns. Moreover, the effects of vegetation and built-up land on the urban climate vary across locations with different wind patterns.

Earth Observation: Investigating Noncommunicable Diseases from Space

The United Nations has called on all nations to take immediate actions to fight noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which have become an increasingly significant burden to public health systems around the world. NCDs tend to be more common in developed countries but are also becoming of growing concern in low- and middle-income countries. Earth observation (EO) technologies have been used in many infectious disease studies but have been less commonly employed in NCD studies. This review discusses the roles that EO data and technologies can play in NCD research, including ( a) integrating natural and built environment factors into NCD research, ( b) explaining individual-environment interactions, ( c) scaling up local studies and interventions, ( d) providing repeated measurements for longitudinal studies including cohorts, and ( e) advancing methodologies in NCD research. Such extensions hold great potential for overcoming the challenges of inaccurate and infrequent measurements of environmental exposure at the level of both the individual and the population, which is of great importance to NCD research, practice, and policy.

Applications of Space Technologies to Global Health: Scoping Review

Background

Space technology has an impact on many domains of activity on earth, including in the field of global health. With the recent adoption of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals that highlight the need for strengthening partnerships in different domains, it is useful to better characterize the relationship between space technology and global health.

Objective

The aim of this study was to identify the applications of space technologies to global health, the key stakeholders in the field, as well as gaps and challenges.

Methods

We used a scoping review methodology, including a literature review and the involvement of stakeholders, via a brief self-administered, open-response questionnaire. A distinct search on several search engines was conducted for each of the four key technological domains that were previously identified by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs’ Expert Group on Space and Global Health (Domain A: remote sensing; Domain B: global navigation satellite systems; Domain C: satellite communication; and Domain D: human space flight). Themes in which space technologies are of benefit to global health were extracted. Key stakeholders, as well as gaps, challenges, and perspectives were identified.

Results

A total of 222 sources were included for Domain A, 82 sources for Domain B, 144 sources for Domain C, and 31 sources for Domain D. A total of 3 questionnaires out of 16 sent were answered. Global navigation satellite systems and geographic information systems are used for the study and forecasting of communicable and noncommunicable diseases; satellite communication and global navigation satellite systems for disaster response; satellite communication for telemedicine and tele-education; and global navigation satellite systems for autonomy improvement, access to health care, as well as for safe and efficient transportation. Various health research and technologies developed for inhabited space flights have been adapted for terrestrial use.

Conclusions

Although numerous examples of space technology applications to global health exist, improved awareness, training, and collaboration of the research community is needed.

Chagas disease ecoepidemiology and environmental changes in northern Minas Gerais state, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Triatoma sordida and Triatoma pseudomaculata are frequently captured triatomine species in the Brazilian savannah and caatinga biomes, respectively, and in Brazilian domiciles.

OBJECTIVES

This study identified eco-epidemiological changes in Chagas disease in northern Minas Gerais state, Brazil, and considered the influence of environmental shifts and both natural and anthropogenic effects.

METHODS

Domicile infestation and Trypanosoma cruzi infection rates were obtained from triatomines and sylvatic reservoirs during the following two time periods: the 1980s and 2007/2008. Entomological and climatic data with land cover classification derived from satellite imagery were integrated into a geographic information system (GIS), which was applied for atmospheric correction, segmentation, image classification, and mapping and to analyse data obtained in the field. Climatic data were analysed and compared to land cover classifications.

RESULTS

A comparison of current data with data obtained in the 1980's showed that T. sordida colonised domiciliary areas in both periods, and that T. pseudomaculata did not colonise these areas. There was a tendency toward a reduction in T. cruzi infection rates in sylvatic reservoirs, and of triatomines captured in both households and in the sylvatic environment. T. sordida populations have reduced in the sylvatic environment, while T. pseudomaculata showed an expanding trend in the region compared to counts observed in the 1980's in the sylvatic environment. This may be related to high deforestation rates as well as gradual increases in land surface temperature (LST) and temperatures along the years.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest a geographical expansion of species into new biomes as a result of anthropogenic and climatic changes that directly interfere with the reproductive and infection processes of vectors.

Risk profiling of schistosomiasis using remote sensing: approaches, challenges and outlook

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that affects an estimated 250 million people, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. The transmission of schistosomiasis is spatially and temporally restricted to freshwater bodies that contain schistosome cercariae released from specific snails that act as intermediate hosts. Our objective was to assess the contribution of remote sensing applications and to identify remaining challenges in its optimal application for schistosomiasis risk profiling in order to support public health authorities to better target control interventions.

METHODS

We reviewed the literature (i) to deepen our understanding of the ecology and the epidemiology of schistosomiasis, placing particular emphasis on remote sensing; and (ii) to fill an identified gap, namely interdisciplinary research that bridges different strands of scientific inquiry to enhance spatially explicit risk profiling. As a first step, we reviewed key factors that govern schistosomiasis risk. Secondly, we examined remote sensing data and variables that have been used for risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Thirdly, the linkage between the ecological consequence of environmental conditions and the respective measure of remote sensing data were synthesised.

RESULTS

We found that the potential of remote sensing data for spatial risk profiling of schistosomiasis is - in principle - far greater than explored thus far. Importantly though, the application of remote sensing data requires a tailored approach that must be optimised by selecting specific remote sensing variables, considering the appropriate scale of observation and modelling within ecozones. Interestingly, prior studies that linked prevalence of Schistosoma infection to remotely sensed data did not reflect that there is a spatial gap between the parasite and intermediate host snail habitats where disease transmission occurs, and the location (community or school) where prevalence measures are usually derived from.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings imply that the potential of remote sensing data for risk profiling of schistosomiasis and other neglected tropical diseases has yet to be fully exploited.

Combining forces--the use of Landsat TM satellite imagery, soil parameter information, and multiplex PCR to detect Coccidioides immitis growth sites in Kern County, California

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal disease acquired through the inhalation of spores of Coccidioides spp., which afflicts primarily humans and other mammals. It is endemic to areas in the southwestern United States, including the San Joaquin Valley portion of Kern County, California, our region of interest (ROI). Recently, incidence of coccidioidomycosis, also known as valley fever, has increased significantly, and several factors including climate change have been suggested as possible drivers for this observation. Up to date details about the ecological niche of C. immitis have escaped full characterization. In our project, we chose a three-step approach to investigate this niche: 1) We examined Landsat-5-Thematic-Mapper multispectral images of our ROI by using training pixels at a 750 m × 750 m section of Sharktooth Hill, a site confirmed to be a C. immitis growth site, to implement a Maximum Likelihood Classification scheme to map out the locations that could be suitable to support the growth of the pathogen; 2) We used the websoilsurvey database of the US Department of Agriculture to obtain soil parameter data; and 3) We investigated soil samples from 23 sites around Bakersfield, California using a multiplex Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based method to detect the pathogen. Our results indicated that a combination of satellite imagery, soil type information, and multiplex PCR are powerful tools to predict and identify growth sites of C. immitis. This approach can be used as a basis for systematic sampling and investigation of soils to detect Coccidioides spp.

Impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia estimated from satellite remote sensing

The effect of temperature on childhood pneumonia in subtropical regions is largely unknown so far. This study examined the impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, Australia. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the main effect of temperature on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane from 2001 to 2010. The model residuals were checked to identify added effects due to heat waves or cold spells. Both high and low temperatures were associated with an increase in EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Children aged 2-5 years, and female children were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of heat and cold, and Indigenous children were sensitive to heat. Heat waves and cold spells had significant added effects on childhood pneumonia, and the magnitude of these effects increased with intensity and duration. There were changes over time in both the main and added effects of temperature on childhood pneumonia. Children, especially those female and Indigenous, should be particularly protected from extreme temperatures. Future development of early warning systems should take the change over time in the impact of temperature on children's health into account.

Air temperature suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa 2000-2012: a high-resolution spatiotemporal prediction

Background

Temperature suitability for malaria transmission is a useful predictor variable for spatial models of malaria infection prevalence. Existing continental or global models, however, are synoptic in nature and so do not characterize inter-annual variability in seasonal patterns of temperature suitability, reducing their utility for predicting malaria risk.

Methods

A malaria Temperature Suitability Index (TSI) was created by first modeling minimum and maximum air temperature with an eight-day temporal resolution from gap-filled MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daytime and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. An improved version of an existing biological model for malaria temperature suitability was then applied to the resulting temperature information for a 13-year data series. The mechanism underlying this biological model is simulation of emergent mosquito cohorts on a two-hour time-step and tracking of each cohort throughout its life to quantify the impact air temperature has on both mosquito survival and sporozoite development.

Results

The results of this research consist of 154 monthly raster surfaces that characterize spatiotemporal patterns in TSI across Africa from April 2000 through December 2012 at a 1 km spatial resolution. Generalized TSI patterns were as expected, with consistently high values in equatorial rain forests, seasonally variable values in tropical savannas (wet and dry) and montane areas, and low values in arid, subtropical regions. Comparisons with synoptic approaches demonstrated the additional information available within the dynamic TSI dataset that is lost in equivalent synoptic products derived from long-term monthly averages.

Conclusions

The dynamic TSI dataset presented here provides a new product with far richer spatial and temporal information than any other presently available for Africa. As spatiotemporal malaria modeling endeavors evolve, dynamic predictor variables such as the malaria temperature suitability data developed here will be essential for the rational assessment of changing patterns of malaria risk.

An environmental data set for vector-borne disease modeling and epidemiology

Understanding the environmental conditions of disease transmission is important in the study of vector-borne diseases. Low- and middle-income countries bear a significant portion of the disease burden; but data about weather conditions in those countries can be sparse and difficult to reconstruct. Here, we describe methods to assemble high-resolution gridded time series data sets of air temperature, relative humidity, land temperature, and rainfall for such areas; and we test these methods on the island of Madagascar. Air temperature and relative humidity were constructed using statistical interpolation of weather station measurements; the resulting median 95^th percentile absolute errors were 2.75°C and 16.6%. Missing pixels from the MODIS11 remote sensing land temperature product were estimated using Fourier decomposition and time-series analysis; thus providing an alternative to the 8-day and 30-day aggregated products. The RFE 2.0 remote sensing rainfall estimator was characterized by comparing it with multiple interpolated rainfall products, and we observed significant differences in temporal and spatial heterogeneity relevant to vector-borne disease modeling.

Distribution and abundance of phlebotominae, vectors of leishmaniasis, in Argentina: spatial and temporal analysis at different scales

The spatial-temporal analysis of the abundance of insects, vectors of tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL), was performed in Argentina using spatial-temporal increasing scales. In the microscale (microfocal), the effect of the primary vegetation-crop interface in vector abundance was observed, and also how the shelters, food sources, and other environmental characteristics contribute to habitat microheterogeneity and so to a microheterogeneous vector distribution. In the mesoscale (locality or epidemic focus), the results from different foci of TL (rural and periurban) and VL (urban) suggested a metapopulation structure determined partially by quantifiable habitat variables that could explain the increase of risk associated to an increase of vector-human contact due to climatic or anthropogenic changes. In the macroscale (regional), captures of vectors and records of human cases allowed the construction of risk maps and predictive models of vector distribution. In conclusion, in order to obtain valid results transferrable to control programs from spatial studies, special attention should be paid in order to assure the consistency between the spatial scales of the hypotheses, data, and analytical tools of each experimental or descriptive design.

Urban structure and dengue fever in Puntarenas, Costa Rica

Dengue is currently the most important arboviral disease globally and is usually associated with built environments in tropical areas. Remotely sensed information can facilitate the study of urban mosquito-borne diseases by providing multiple temporal and spatial resolutions appropriate to investigate urban structure and ecological characteristics associated with infectious disease. In this study, coarse, medium and fine resolution satellite imagery (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer and QuickBird respectively) and ground-based data were analyzed for the Greater Puntarenas area, Costa Rica for the years 2002-04. The results showed that the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was generally higher in the localities with lower incidence of dengue fever during 2002, although the correlation was statistically significant only in the dry season (r=-0.40; p=0.03). Dengue incidence was inversely correlated to built area and directly correlated with tree cover (r=0.75, p=0.01). Overall, the significant correlations between dengue incidence and urban structural variables (tree cover and building density) suggest that properties of urban structure may be associated with dengue incidence in tropical urban settings.

Global environmental data for mapping infectious disease distribution

This contribution documents the satellite data archives, data processing methods and temporal Fourier analysis (TFA) techniques used to create the remotely sensed datasets on the DVD distributed with this volume. The aim is to provide a detailed reference guide to the genesis of the data, rather than a standard review. These remotely sensed data cover the entire globe at either 1 x 1 or 8 x 8 km spatial resolution. We briefly evaluate the relationships between the 1 x 1 and 8 x 8 km global TFA products to explore their inter-compatibility. The 8 x 8 km TFA surfaces are used in the mapping procedures detailed in the subsequent disease mapping reviews, since the 1 x 1 km products have been validated less widely. Details are also provided on additional, current and planned sensors that should be able to provide continuity with these environmental variable surfaces, as well as other sources of global data that may be used for mapping infectious disease.

Survival of unfed Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Rhipicephalus zambeziensis adults

Two ixodid tick species, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus (Neumann) and Rhipicephalus zambeziensis (Walker et al.) (Acari: Ixodidae), both originating from the southern province of Zambia, were used to study the survival time of adults at a range of different humidities and temperatures. In general, the experiment clearly demonstrates the different survival times of the two species in relation to the climatic conditions tested: survival of R. zambeziensis was better under more extreme conditions of temperature and humidity. These findings offer an explanation for the different distribution ranges of the two tick species. Rhipicephalus appendiculatus is more confined to cooler and wetter conditions, whereas R. zambeziensis is adapted to hotter and drier areas.

Terra and Aqua: new data for epidemiology and public health

Earth-observing satellites have only recently been exploited for the measurement of environmental variables of relevance to epidemiology and public health. Such work has relied on sensors with spatial, spectral and geometric constraints that have allowed large-area questions associated with the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases to be addressed. Moving from pretty maps to pragmatic control tools requires a suite of satellite-derived environmental data of higher fidelity, spatial resolution, spectral depth and at similar temporal resolutions to existing meteorological satellites. Information derived from sensors onboard the next generation of moderate-resolution Earth-observing sensors may provide the key. The MODIS and ASTER sensors onboard the Terra and Aqua platforms provide substantial improvements in spatial resolution, number of spectral channels, choices of bandwidths, radiometric calibration and a much-enhanced set of pre-processed and freely available products. These sensors provide an important advance in moderate-resolution remote sensing and the data available to those concerned with improving public health.

Modelling the distributions of Culicoides bluetongue virus vectors in Sicily in relation to satellite-derived climate variables

Surveillance data from 268 sites in Sicily are used to develop climatic models for prediction of the distribution of the main European bluetongue virus (BTV) vector Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and of potential novel vectors, Culicoides pulicaris Linnaeus, Culicoides obsoletus group Meigen and Culicoides newsteadi Austen. The models containing the 'best' climatic predictors of distribution for each species, were selected from combinations of 40 temporally Fourier-processed remotely sensed variables and altitude at a 1 km spatial resolution using discriminant analysis. Kappa values of around 0.6 for all species models indicated substantial levels of agreement between model predictions and observed data. Whilst the distributions of C. obsoletus group and C. newsteadi were predicted by temperature variables, those of C. pulicaris and C. imicola were determined mainly by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a variable correlated with soil moisture and vegetation biomass and productivity. These models were used to predict species presence in unsampled pixels across Italy and for C. imicola across Europe and North Africa. The predicted continuous presence of C. pulicaris along the appenine mountains, from north to south Italy, suggests BTV transmission may be possible in a large proportion of this region and that seasonal transhumance (seasonal movement of livestock between upland and lowland pastures) even in C. imicola-free areas should not generally be considered safe. The predicted distribution of C. imicola distribution shows substantial agreement with observed surveillance data from Greece and Iberia (including the Balearics) and parts of mainland Italy (Lazio, Tuscany and areas of the Ionian coast) but is generally much more restricted than the observed distribution (in Sardinia, Corsica and Morocco). The low number of presence sites for C. imicola in Sicily meant that only a restricted range of potential C. imicola habitats were included in the training set and that predictions could only be made within this range. Future modelling exercises will use abundance data collected according to a standardized protocol across the Mediterranean and, for Sicily in particular, should include non-climatic environmental variables that may influence breeding site suitability such as soil type.

Species composition, distribution, and ecological preferences of the ticks of grazing sheep in north-central Spain

The distribution and ecological preferences of tick (Acari: Ixodidae) parasites of grazing sheep in the region of Aragón (north-central Spain) were surveyed on flocks four times a year and mapped into a 5 x 5 km grid. Nine tick species were found. These were species of the Rhipicephalus sanguineus group (about 95% of them Rhipicephalus turanicus Pomerantsev, in 91% of cells of the grid), Rhipicephalus bursa Canestrini & Fanzago (79% of cells), Dermacentor marginatus (Sulzer) (58% of cells), Haemaphysalis punctata Canestrini & Fanzago (74% of cells) and Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus) 14% of cells. Other species weakly represented in the surveys were Dermacentor reticulatus (Fabricius), Haemaphysalis sulcata Canestrini & Fanzago and Hyalomma m. marginatum Koch. Data on temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), topography, vegetation categories and plant productivity were used to build models of distribution and abundance of D. marginatus, H. punctata, R. bursa and R. turanicus. The occurrence models largely incorporated climatic variables and had good discrimination ability (P < 0.0001 for every modelled species, correct classification rate or sensitivity within 0.89 and 0.99), whereas the abundance models had a lower explanatory power. These models are relevant in the understanding of the variables composing the main distribution patterns, but they are unable adequately to predict the density. Abundance models produce good predictions in cells with low tick density, whereas poor correlation is observed in sites with high tick abundance. Several causes may be responsible for this low predictive power of the abundance models. Model output might be sensible to host density, to local farming practices, or to the size of the grid used to refer the results of the survey. In the latter case, small patches may support locally important populations of ticks, influencing largely the results of the survey. These patches of particular abiotic conditions, or supporting large host densities, may have been undetected at the resolution of the survey, thus obscuring the impact of the predictive variables.

Mapping bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain using environmental data

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is increasing in Great Britain, exacerbated by the temporary suspension of herd testing in 2001 for fear of spreading the much more contagious foot and mouth disease. The transmission pathways of BTB remain poorly understood. Current hypotheses suggest the disease is introduced into susceptible herds from a wildlife reservoir (principally the Eurasian Badger) and/or from cattle purchased from infected areas, while the role of climatic factors in transmission has generally been ignored. Here, we show how remotely sensed satellite data, which provide good indicators of a variety of climatic factors, can be used to describe the distribution of BTB in Great Britain in 1997, and suggest how such data could be used to produce BTB risk maps for the future.

New perspectives on the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in environmental health sciences

At first glance, the domain of health is no typical area to applicate Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Nevertheless, the recent development clearly shows that also within the domains of environmental health, disease ecology and public health GIS have become an indispensable tool for processing, analysing and visualising spatial data. In the field of geographical epidemiology, GIS are used for drawing up disease maps and for ecological analysis. The striking advantages of GIS for the disease mapping process are the considerably simplified generation and variation of maps as well as a broader variety in terms of determining a real units. In the frame of ecological analysis, GIS can significantly assist with the assessment of the distribution of health-relevant environmental factors via interpolation and modelling. On the other hand, the GIS-supported methods for the detection of striking spatial patterns of disease distribution need to be much improved. An important topic in this respect is the integration of the time dimension. The increasing use of remote sensing as well as the integration into internet functionalities will stimulate the application of GIS in the field of Environmental Health Sciences (EHS). In future, the integration and analysis of health-relevant data in one single data system will open up many new research opportunities.

A simulation model for environmental population densities, survival rates and prevalence of Boophilus decoloratus (Acari: ixodidae) using remotely sensed environmental information

A simulation model for the African tick Boophilus decoloratus is presented. This model is based on the use of a dynamic life table that is driven by abiotic variables (temperature and vegetation status) remotely sensed (AVHRR sensor of the NOAA series of satellites) over time. The model incorporates temperature-dependent rates of egg production and development, climate-driven density-independent mortality rates, and density-dependent regulation of on-host stages. The model successfully describes both the seasonality and annual variation in the numbers of questing larvae and engorging females observed in eight sites throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Climate data from 1983 to 1999 in 10-day intervals are used as the basic input for modelling the dynamic patterns of activity at four different sites in Africa and to understand how abiotic factors can modulate the long-term life cycle of B. decoloratus.

Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria

More than 30 years ago, human beings looked back from the Moon to see the magnificent spectacle of Earth-rise. The technology that put us into space has since been used to assess the damage we are doing to our natural environment and is now being harnessed to monitor and predict diseases through space and time. Satellite sensor data promise the development of early-warning systems for diseases such as malaria, which kills between 1 and 2 million people each year.

The potential of Pathfinder AVHRR data for providing surrogate climatic variables across Africa and Europe for epidemiological applications

Surface climatic conditions are key determinants of arthropod vector distribution and abundance and consequently affect transmission rates of any diseases they may carry. Remotely sensed observations by satellite sensors are the only feasible means of obtaining regional and continental scale measurements of climate at regular intervals for real-time epidemiological applications such as disease early warning systems. The potential of Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL) data to provide surrogate variables for near-surface air temperature and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) over Africa and Europe were assessed in this context. For the years 1988-1990 and 1992, correlations were examined between meteorological ground measurements (monthly mean air temperature and VPD(grd)) and variables derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data (LST and VPD(sat)). The AVHRR indices were derived from both daily and composite PAL data so that their relative performance could be determined. Furthermore, the ground observations were divided into African and European subsets, so that the relative performance of the satellite data at tropical/sub-tropical and temperate latitudes could be assessed.Significant correlations were shown between air temperature and LST in all months. Temporal variability existed in the strength of correlations throughout any twelve-month period, with the pattern of variability consistent between years. The adjusted r(2) values increased when elevation and the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were included, in addition to LST, as predictor variables of air temperature. Attempts to derive monthly estimates of atmospheric moisture availability resulted in an over-estimation of VPD(sat) compared to ground observations, VPD(grd). The use of daily PAL data to derive monthly mean climatic indices was shown to be more accurate than those obtained using monthly maximum values from 10-day composite data. A subset of the 1992 data was then used to build linear regression models for the direct retrieval of monthly mean air temperature from PAL data. The accuracy of retrieved estimates was greatest when NDVI was included with LST as predictor variables, with root mean square errors varying from 1.83°C to 3.18 °C with a mean of 2.38 °C over the twelve months.

New tools: potential medical applications of data from new and old environmental satellites

The last 40 years, beginning with the first TIROS (television infrared observational satellite) launched on 1 April 1960, has seen an explosion of earth environmental satellite systems and their capabilities. They can provide measurements in globe encircling arrays or small select areas, with increasing resolutions, and new capabilities. Concurrently there are expanding numbers of existing and emerging infectious diseases, many distributed according to areal patterns of physical conditions at the earth's surface. For these reasons, the medical and remote sensing communities can beneficially collaborate with the objective of making needed progress in public health activities by exploiting the advances of the national and international space programs. Major improvements in applicability of remotely sensed data are becoming possible with increases in the four kinds of resolution: spatial, temporal, radiometric and spectral, scheduled over the next few years. Much collaborative research will be necessary before data from these systems are fully exploited by the medical community.