Age and frailty in COVID-19 vaccine development

Neutralizing antibody responses to three XBB protein vaccines in older adults

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of strong immune defenses against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. While COVID-19 vaccines containing XBB subvariants have proven effective in neutralizing new SARS-CoV-2 variants, a gap remains in knowledge regarding neutralizing antibody responses in older adults aged >65 years against these newly emerged variants. This study was therefore undertaken to investigate and compare neutralizing antibody responses to three XBB-containing protein-based vaccines (trivalent XBB.1.5 vaccine, bivalent Omicron XBB vaccine, and tetravalent XBB.1 vaccine) head-to-head in 90 individuals aged >65 years. The results showed that all three XBB-containing vaccines substantially enhanced the neutralizing antibody response, with 100% of vaccinees having detectable antibody titers against ancestral D614G and variants BA.5, XBB.1.5, JN.1, KP.2, and KP.3 after booster immunization. Subsequent analysis indicated that the trivalent XBB.1.5 and tetravalent XBB.1 vaccines elicited higher levels of neutralizing antibodies compared to the bivalent Omicron XBB vaccine. The KP.2 and KP.3 variants displayed antibody resistance comparable to the JN.1 variant. Older adults produce similar neutralizing antibody responses to the vaccines regardless of their underlying medical conditions. These findings indicate that booster vaccination with XBB-containing vaccines can effectively elicit strong neutralizing responses against a number of SARS-CoV-2 variants in older adults over 65 years, which will help guide vaccine strategies in this elderly population.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in children and adolescents with and without type 1 diabetes mellitus

Adults with Diabetes Mellitus (DM) have increased risk of severe clinical presentation during COVID-19 infection, while children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1D) have the same mild clinical course as their healthy peers, especially those with optimal glycemic control. The present review focuses on the necessity of COVID-19 vaccination among children and adolescents with T1D, and also in their non-diabetic peers. The efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines are also discussed, as well as their various side-effects, ranging from common mild to very rare and serious ones. Furthermore, the results of COVID-19 vaccination of adolescents with and without T1D are reported, as well as the efficacy and concerns about childhood vaccination. It is concluded that patients with DM of all age groups should maintain optimal diabetic control in order to avoid glycemic deterioration during COVID-19 infection. Furthermore, despite the very rare and serious complications of COVID-19 vaccines, vaccination against COVID-19 is recommended for children and adolescents with T1D to prevent glycemic deterioration and rare but serious complications of COVID-19 infection.

Humoral immune response to an mRNA-1273 booster after chAdOx1-nCoV-19-priming among patients undergoing hemodialysis

Objectives

Patients who are undergoing dialysis due to end-stage kidney disease are susceptible to greater coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) complications. While vaccination is seen as the most effective tactic against COVID-19, the dialysis population usually has impaired immune responses to vaccination. Owing to the global vaccine supply shortage in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, hemodialysis patients in Taiwan were administered homologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19/ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 at 12-week intervals, with a third booster shot of mRNA-1273 given 12 weeks after the second dose. We assessed the antibody responses of these patients to this extended-interval dosing protocol.

Materials and Methods

A total of 168 hemodialysis patients (mean age: 67 ± 13 years) without prior COVID-19 infection were vaccinated between June 16, 2021, and January 5, 2022, and followed until February 10, 2022. The primary outcome was seroconversion with an antispike immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody level ≥50 arbitrary units (AU)/mL at 4 weeks after the administration of an mRNA-1273 booster shot. The secondary outcome was the level of antispike IgG antibodies. Multivariable linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations between the baseline characteristics and the antispike IgG level.

Results

A total of 163 (97.0%) patients reached the primary endpoint, with antibody levels after the third booster dose of mRNA-1273 being significantly higher than those after the second dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (median IgG titer 12,007 [4394-23,860] vs. 846 [interquartile range 295-2114] AU/mL; P < 0.001). Patients who were male, older, had a higher body mass index, had a lower total lymphocyte count, and used immunosuppressants had lower antibody levels.

Conclusion

A third booster dose of mRNA-1273 after two consecutive priming doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 with extended intervals resulted in adequate humoral immune responses among hemodialysis patients.

Immunogenicity, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccine in older adults living in nursing homes: A real-life study

INTRODUCTION

BNT162b2 (BioNTech and Pfizer) is a nucleoside-modified mRNA vaccine that provides protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and is generally well tolerated. However, data about its efficacy, immunogenicity and safety in people of old age or with underlying chronic conditions are scarce.

PURPOSE

To describe BNT162b2 (BioNTech and Pfizer) COVID-19 vaccine immunogenicity, effectiveness and reactogenicity after complete vaccination (two doses), and immunogenicity and reactogenicity after one booster, in elders residing in nursing homes (NH) and healthy NH workers in real-life conditions.

METHODS

Observational, ambispective, multicenter study. Older adults and health workers were recruited from three nursing homes of a private hospital corporation located in three Spanish cities. The primary vaccination was carried out between January and March 2021. The follow-up was 13 months. Humoral immunity, adverse events, SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations and deaths were evaluated. Cellular immunity was assessed in a participant subset.

RESULTS

A total of 181 residents (mean age 84.1 years; 89.9% females, Charlson index ≥2: 45%) and 148 members of staff (mean age 45.2 years; 70.2% females) were surveyed (n:329). After primary vaccination of 327 participants, vaccine response in both groups was similar; ≈70% of participants, regardless of the group, had an antibody titer above the cut-off considered currently protective (260BAU/ml). This proportion increased significantly to ≈ 98% after the booster (p<0.0001 in both groups). Immunogenicity was largely determined by a prior history of COVID-19 infection. Twenty residents and 3 workers were tested for cellular immunity. There was evidence of cellular immunity after primary vaccination and after booster. During the study, one resident was hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2. No SARS-CoV-2-related deaths were reported and most adverse events were mild.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is immunogenic, effective and safe in elderly NH residents with underlying chronic conditions.

Frailty impacts immune responses to Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine in older adults

BACKGROUND

Immune responses to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines have not been well characterized in frail older adults. We postulated that frailty is associated with impaired antibody and cellular mRNA vaccine responses.

METHODS

We followed older adults in a retirement facility with longitudinal clinical and serological samples from the first Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine dose starting in February 2021 through their 3rd (booster) vaccine dose. Outcomes were antibody titers, antibody avidity, and AIM+ T cell function and phenotype. Statistical analysis used linear regression with clustered error for antibody titers over multiple timepoints with clinical predictors including, age, sex, prior infection status, and clinical frailty scale (CFS) score. T cell function analysis used linear regression models with clinical predictors and cellular memory phenotype variables.

RESULTS

Participants (n = 15) had median age of 90 years and mild, moderate, or severe frailty scores (n = 3, 7, or 5 respectively). Over the study time course, anti-spike antibody titers were 10-fold higher in individuals with lower frailty status (p = 0.001 and p = 0.005, unadjusted and adjusted for prior COVID-19 infection). Following the booster, titers to spike protein improved regardless of COVID-19 infection or degree of frailty (p = 0.82 and p = 0.29, respectively). Antibody avidity significantly declined over 6 months in all participants following 2 vaccine doses (p < 0.001), which was further impaired with higher frailty (p = 0.001). Notably, avidity increased to peak levels after the booster (p < 0.001). Overall antibody response was inversely correlated with a phenotype of immune-senescent T cells, CD8 + CD28- TEMRA cells (p = 0.036, adjusted for COVID-19 infection). Furthermore, there was increased detection of CD8 + CD28- TEMRA cells in individuals with greater frailty (p = 0.056, adjusted for COVID-19).

CONCLUSIONS

We evaluated the immune responses to the Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine in frail older adults in a retirement community. A higher degree of frailty was associated with diminished antibody quantity and quality. However, a booster vaccine dose at 6 months overcame these effects. Frailty was associated with an increased immune-senescence phenotype that may contribute to the observed changes in the vaccine response. While the strength of our conclusions was limited by a small cohort, these results are important for guiding further investigation of vaccine responses in frail older adults.

Sialic acid-mediated photochemotherapy enhances infiltration of CD8+ T cells from tumor-draining lymph nodes into tumors of immunosenescent mice

Immunoscenescence plays a key role in the initiation and development of tumors. Furthermore, immunoscenescence also impacts drug delivery and cancer therapeutic efficacy. To reduce the impact of immunosenescence on anti-tumor therapy, this experimental plan aimed to use neutrophils with tumor tropism properties to deliver sialic acid (SA)-modified liposomes into the tumor, kill tumor cells via SA-mediated photochemotherapy, enhance infiltration of neutrophils into the tumor, induce immunogenic death of tumor cells with chemotherapy, enhance infiltration of CD8⁺ T cells into the tumor-draining lymph nodes and tumors of immunosenescent mice, and achieve SA-mediated photochemotherapy. We found that CD8⁺ T cell and neutrophil levels in 16-month-old mice were significantly lower than those in 2- and 8-month-old mice; 16-month-old mice exhibited immunosenescence. The anti-tumor efficacy of SA-mediated non-photochemotherapy declined in 16-month-old mice, and tumors recurred after scabbing. SA-mediated photochemotherapy enhanced tumor infiltration by CD8⁺ T cells and neutrophils, induced crusting and regression of tumors in 8-month-old mice, inhibited metastasis and recurrence of tumors and eliminated the immunosenescence-induced decline in antitumor therapeutic efficacy in 16-month-old mice via the light-heat-chemical-immunity conversion.

Frailty Reduces Vaccine Effectiveness Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Test-Negative Case Control Study Using National VA Data

OBJECTIVES

To assess the variation of vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Delta wave according to frailty status among U.S. veterans.

DESIGN

Test-negative case-control study of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine effectiveness.

SETTING

Veterans Health Administration (VHA) medical centers.

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans 19 years and older who had at least one COVID-19/Flu like symptoms and received a SARS-CoV-2 PCR or antigen test at VHA medical centers between July 25 to September 30, 2021.

INTERVENTION

mRNA vaccination.

MEASUREMENTS

New SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccine effectiveness was defined as 1-odds of vaccination in cases/odds of vaccination in controls, where cases were patients who had a COVID-19 test and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and controls were those who tested negative. Frailty was measured using the VA frailty index, categorized as robust (0-<0.1), pre-frail (≥0.1-<0.21) and frail (≥0.21).

RESULTS

A total of 58,604 patients (age:58.9±17.0, median:61, IQR:45-72; 87.5%men; 68.1%white; 1.3%African American, 8.3%Hispanic) were included in the study. Of these, 27,733 (47.3%) were robust, 16,276 (27.8%) were prefrail, and 14,595 (24.9%) were frail. mRNA vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant symptomatic infection was lower in patients with frailty, 62.8 %(95%CI:59.8-65.7), versus prefrail 73.9%(95%CI:72.0-75.7), and robust, 77.0 %(95%CI:75.7-78.3).

CONCLUSIONS

This test-negative case control study showed that mRNA vaccine effectiveness against infection declined in veterans with frailty. Frailty status is a factor to consider when designing, developing, and evaluating COVID-19 vaccines.

Comparison of immunogenicity and clinical effectiveness between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in people with end-stage kidney disease receiving haemodialysis: A prospective, observational cohort study

Background

People with end-stage kidney disease, including people on haemodialysis, are susceptible to greater COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality. This study compares the immunogenicity and clinical effectiveness of BNT162B2 versus ChAdOx1 in haemodialysis patients.

Methods

In this observational cohort study, 1021 patients were followed-up from time of vaccination until December 2021. All patients underwent weekly RT-PCR screening. Patients were assessed for nucleocapsid(anti-NP) and spike(anti-S) antibodies at timepoints after second(V2) and third(V3) vaccinations. 191 patients were investigated for T-cell responses. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) for prevention of infection, hospitalisation and mortality was evaluated using the formula VE=(1-adjustedHR)x100.

Findings

45.7% (467/1021) had evidence of prior infection. There was no difference in the proportion of infection-naïve patients who seroconverted by vaccine type, but median anti-S antibody titres were higher post-BNT162b2 compared with ChAdOx1; 462(152-1171) and 78(20-213) BAU/ml respectively, p<0.001.  Concomitant immunosuppressant use was a risk factor for non-response, OR 0.12[95% CI 0.05-0.25] p<0.001.  Post-V3 (all BNT162b2), median anti-S antibody titres remained higher in those receiving BNT162b2 versus ChAdOx1 as primary doses; 2756(187-1246) and 1250(439-2635) BAU/ml respectively, p=0.003.Anti-S antibodies waned over time. Hierarchical levels of anti-S post-V2 predicted risk of infection; patients with no/low anti-S being at highest risk. VE for preventing infection, hospitalisation and death was 53% (95% CI 6-75), 77% (95% CI 30-92) and 93% (95% CI 59-99) respectively, with no difference seen by vaccine type.

Interpretation

Serum anti-S concentrations predict risk of breakthrough infection. Anti-S responses vary dependent upon clinical features, infection history and vaccine type. Monitoring of serological responses may enable individualised approaches to vaccine boosters in at risk populations.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Imperial College London.

Self-Reported Reactogenicity After Different COVID-19 Vaccination Regimens

BACKGROUND

In Rhineland-Palatinate, most COVID-19 vaccinations are centrally registered by the Rhineland-Palatinate Division of Vaccine Documentation, which includes self-reported vaccination reactions (SRVR) and their level of perceived intensity. We analyzed the occurrence of SRVR reported between 12/2020 and 12/2021 in relation to the different vaccination regimens involving BioNTech/Pfizer (BNT) and Moderna (m1273) mRNA vaccines and AstraZeneca (ChAd) and Johnson & Johnson (Ad26) viral vector vaccines.

METHODS

Using sex-specific logistic regression models, we analyzed the occurrence of all local and systemic SRVR, as well as the occurrence of local and systemic SRVR that were self-rated as "severe" by the vaccinated persons, in relation to the vaccine of the first vaccination and the vaccination regimen of the second vaccination (BNT/BNT, ChAd/ChAd, m1273/m1273, ChAd/ BNT, ChAd/m1273). Vaccination with BNT or the BNT/BNT regimen formed the reference category for the estimated odds ratios (OR) with respective 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Of all those vaccinated, 40.7% provided valid information on SRVR after the first vaccination and 33.8% after the second vaccination. As a result, 887 052 individuals were included in the analyses. Their median age was 60 years, and 58% were women. The most common vaccination regimen was BNT/BNT (67.3%). The most common SRVR were pain at the injection site and fatigue. Self-reported reactogenicity after the first vaccination was lowest for BNT. Self-reported systemic reactogenicity was notably higher after vaccination with a vector vaccine. After the second vaccination, self-reported reactogenicity was lowest after a ChAd/ChAd regimen and highest after an m1273 second vaccination.

CONCLUSION

With overall acceptable tolerability, differences in self-reported reactogenicity were evident depending on the particular COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination regimens in question.

Age discrimination, the right to life, and COVID-19 vaccination in countries with limited resources

This paper seeks to develop and apply a simple yardstick based on remaining life expectancy to assess whether specific health policies unfairly discriminate against people on the basis of their age. This reveals that the COVID-19 vaccine prioritization policies of several countries have discriminated against older people. Conversely, the exclusion of older people from COVID-19 vaccine testing is shown to be non-discriminatory, as is some degree of age prioritization for limited acute COVID-19 care. Age discrimination in vaccine prioritization is shown to be embedded in wider ageist attitudes in health policy, which give the lives of older people a lower social value than the lives of people at younger ages.

COVID-19 mRNA vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death in veterans according to frailty status during the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant surge in the USA: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Studies have shown that COVID-19 vaccination is effective at preventing infection and death in older populations. However, whether vaccination effectiveness is reduced in patients with frailty is unclear. We aimed to compare vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death after COVID-19 during the surge of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 according to patients' frailty status.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we used data derived from the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities and the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) COVID-19 Shared Data Resource, which contains information from the VA National Surveillance Tool, death certificates, and National Cemetery Administration. We included veterans aged 19 years or older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR or antigen tests between July 25 and Sept 30, 2021, with no record of a previous positive test. Deaths were identified through VHA facilities, death certificates, and National Cemetery Administration data available from VA databases. We also retrieved data including sociodemographic characteristics, medical conditions diagnosed at baseline, frailty score, and vaccination information. The primary outcomes were COVID-19-associated hospitalisations and all-cause deaths at 30 days from testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. The odds ratio (OR) for COVID-19-associated hospitalisation and hazard ratio (HR) for death of vaccinated patients compared with the unvaccinated patients were estimated according to frailty categories of robust, pre-frail, or frail. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as 1 minus the OR for COVID-19-associated hospitalisation, and 1 minus the HR for death.

Findings

We identified 57 784 veterans (mean age 57·5 years [SD 16·7], 50 642 [87·6%] males, and 40 743 [70·5%] White people), of whom 28 497 (49·3%) were categorised as robust, 16 737 (29·0%) as pre-frail, and 12 550 (21·7%) as frail. There were 2577 all-cause deaths (676 [26·2%] in the vaccinated group and 1901 [73·8%] in the unvaccinated group), and 7857 COVID-19-associated hospitalisations (2749 [35·0%] in the vaccinated group and 5108 [65·0%] in the unvaccinated group) within 30 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-associated hospitalisation within 30 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test was 65% (95% CI 61-69) in the robust group, 54% (48-58) in the pre-frail group, and 36% (30-42) in the frail group. By 30 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, the vaccine effectiveness for all-cause death was 79% (95% CI 74-84) in the robust group, 79% (75-83) in the pre-frail group, and 68% (63-71) in the frail group.

Interpretation

Compared with non-frail patients (pre-frail and robust), those with frailty had lower levels of vaccination protection against COVID-19-associated hospitalisation and all-cause death. Future studies investigating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness should incorporate frailty assessments and actively recruit older adults with frailty.

Funding

Miami VA Healthcare System Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center.

An Easy-to-Implement Clinical-Trial Frailty Index Based on Accumulation of Deficits: Validation in Zoster Vaccine Clinical Trials

Purpose

Despite being among those most in need of protection, frail older adults are often not well represented in clinical trials. Although frailty likely influences responses to treatments and vaccines, frailty may not be explicitly considered in trials even when frail participants are enrolled due to the perception that frailty is difficult to measure effectively and efficiently without adding to participant or data collection burden. We developed an easy-to-implement frailty index, the Clinical Trial-Frailty Index (CT-FI), based on baseline medical history and standard patient-reported outcomes using data from clinical trials of recombinant Zoster vaccine (the ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 studies). Our objective was to demonstrate that the CT-FI is a robust measure that may be used retrospectively or prospectively in clinical trials where sufficient patient data have been collected.

Methods

The CT-FI was based on baseline medical history and Quality of Life questionnaires (SF-36 and EQ-5D). Items meeting criteria for inclusion were scored from 0 to 1, then summed for each participant and divided by the total number of deficits considered. Validation analyses included descriptive verification of distribution and age- and sex-associations in relation to usual patterns of the frailty index, regressions in relation to outcomes hypothesized to be related to frailty, and resampling methods within the index.

Results

The CT-FI distribution was well represented by a gamma distribution with a range of 0–0.70. Deficit accumulation increased with chronological age and was higher for females. Multivariate Cox regression survival analysis showed that the CT-FI, age, and sex were significant predictors of mortality. Jackknife and Bootstrap resampling methods highlighted the robustness of the CT-FI, which was not sensitive to inclusion/exclusion of specific individual or groups of variables.

Conclusion

We have developed a reliable, robust and easy-to-implement CT-FI with potential retrospective or prospective application in other clinical trials.

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Frailty and Age Impact Immune Responses to Moderna COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine

BACKGROUND

Immune responses to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines have not been well characterized in frail older adults. We postulated that frailty is associated with impaired antibody and cellular mRNA vaccine responses.

METHODS

We followed older adults in a retirement facility with longitudinal clinical and serological samples from the first Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine dose starting in February 2021 through their 3rd (booster) vaccine dose. Outcomes were antibody titers, antibody avidity, and AIM+ T cell function and phenotype. Statistical analysis used antibody titers in linear mixed-effects linear regression with clinical predictors including, age, sex, prior infection status, and clinical frailty scale (CFS) score. T cell function analysis used clinical predictors and cellular phenotype variables in linear regression models.

RESULTS

Participants (n=15) had median age of 90 years and mild, moderate, or severe frailty scores (n=3, 7, or 5 respectively). After 2 vaccine doses, anti-spike antibody titers were higher in 5-fold higher in individuals with mild frailty compared to severe frailty and 9-fold higher in individuals with prior COVID-19 infection compared to uninfected (p=0.02 and p<0.001). Following the booster, titers improved regardless of COVID-19 infection or frailty. Antibody avidity significantly declined following 2 vaccine doses regardless of frailty status, but reached maximal avidity after the booster. Spike-specific CD4+ T cell responses were modulated by frailty and terminally differentiated effector memory TEMRA cells, and spike-specific TFH cell responses were inversely correlated with age. Additionally, an immune-senescent memory T cell phenotype was correlated with frailty and functional decline.

CONCLUSIONS

We described the separate influences of frailty and age on adaptive immune responses to the Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Though overall antibody responses were robust, higher frailty diminished initial antibody quantity, and all older adults had impaired antibody avidity. Following the booster, antibody responses improved, overcoming the effects of age and frailty. CD4+ T cell responses were independently impacted by age, frailty, and burden of immune-senescence. Frailty was correlated with increased burden of immune-senescence, suggesting an immune-mediated mechanism for physiological decline.

Frailty and COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Antibody Response in the COVID-19 Community Research Partnership

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has disproportionately affected older adults. Frailty has been associated with impaired vaccine response in other vaccine types, but the impact of frailty on mRNA vaccine response is undefined.

METHODS

Observational study of adults aged 55 and older from 1 U.S. health care system between January 22, 2021 and September 16, 2021 with self-reported Moderna or Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA vaccine and an electronic frailty index (eFI) score from their medical record (n = 1 677). Participants' frailty status was compared with positive antibody detection (seroconversion) following full vaccination and subsequent loss of positive antibody detection (seroreversion) using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 1 677 older adults with median (interquartile range) age, 67 (62 and 72) years, and frailty status (nonfrail: 879 [52%], prefrail: 678 [40%], and frail: 120 [7.2%]), seroconversion was not detected in 23 (1.4%) over 60 days following full vaccination. Frail individuals were less likely to seroconvert than nonfrail individuals, adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.75, 95% confidence interval (CI; 1.04, 13.5). Seroreversion was detected in 50/1 631 individuals (3.1%) over 6 months of median follow-up antibody testing. Frail individuals were more likely to serorevert than nonfrail individuals, adjusted OR 3.02, 95% CI (1.17, 7.33).

CONCLUSION

Overall antibody response to COVID-19 mRNA vaccination was high across age and frailty categories. While antibody detection is an incomplete descriptor of vaccine response, the high sensitivity of this antibody combined with health-system data reinforce our conclusions that frailty is an independent predictor of impaired antibody response to the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Frailty should be considered in vaccine studies and prevention strategies.

Safety, Effectiveness, and Immunogenicity 6 Months After BNT162B2 mRNA Vaccine in Frail Nursing Home Residents

BACKGROUND

Elderly people who reside in long-term care facilities form a frail and vulnerable population, with multiple pathologies and high percentages of cognitive and functional disability.

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this study were to assess the safety of vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in frail nursing home residents and to evaluate its effectiveness 6 months after full vaccination.

DESIGN

This was an ambispective observational study.

SETTING

Residents of a long-term care facility in Madrid, Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

One hundred and thirty-seven nursing home residents (81.8% female, mean age 87.77 ± 8.31 years) with high comorbidity (61.3% Charlson Index ≥ 3) and frailty (75% Clinical Frail Scale ≥ 7) who received the BNT162B2 mRNA vaccine.

MEASUREMENTS

Safety data were collected to evaluate the type of adverse drug reactions and their duration, severity, and causality. Immunogenicity was tested 6 months after the primary vaccination and effectiveness was evaluated by the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the number of hospital admissions, and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

RESULTS

Safety: Of the residents, 21.9% had some adverse reaction and 5.8% had a severe or more serious adverse reaction. The most frequent adverse reactions were fatigue (13.1%), pyrexia (12.4%), and headache (7.3%). No association was observed between frailty (including a need for palliative care) and clinical, functional or cognitive status of the participants and the occurrence of adverse events. Immunogenicity and Effectiveness: After 6 months of vaccination, only one case of SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in the vaccinated residents. Most of the nursing home residents presented positive serology (95.2%). Loss of immunogenicity was associated with older age (95.12 ± 3.97 vs. 87.24 ± 8.25 years; p = 0.03) and no previous COVID-19 infection (16.6% vs. 70%; p < 0.001). Binary logistic regression models did not reveal this association.

CONCLUSION

The BNT162B2 vaccine is well tolerated and effective in nursing home residents, independently of their clinical, functional, cognitive, or frailty characteristics. For the most part, immunogenicity has been maintained over time, regardless of comorbidity, functional status or frailty.

Antibody response with SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccine (CoronaVac) in Turkish geriatric population

Background

Sars-CoV-2 infection influences older individuals at the forefront, and there is still limited data on the COVID-19 vaccine response in the geriatric population. This study aimed to assess antibody response after vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccine and examine possible factors affecting this response in a geriatric population.

Methods

individuals who have been on at least the 28th day after the second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine were included. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tools and the Clinical Frailty Scale were performed. SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific IgG antibodies were detected and, levels ≥1 U/ml were defined as seropositive, <1 U/ml were defined as seronegative.

Results

a total of 497 patients were included and divided into three groups according to the days past after the second dose of the vaccine (Group 1: 28–59 days, Group 2: 60–89 days and Group 3: 90 days and more). Groups included 188, 148 and 171 patients, respectively. Seropositivity rate in each group was 80.9,73.2 and 57.3%, respectively. In Groups 1 and 2, Charlson Comorbidity Index score was higher in the seronegative group (P = 0.023 and P = 0.011, respectively). In Group 3, the prevalence of frailty was significantly higher in the seronegative group (P = 0.002).

Conclusion

to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study assessing the antibody response after vaccination with Sars-CoV 2 inactivated vaccine in the Turkish geriatric population. Moreover, this is the first study revealing the relationship between antibody response and frailty. Larger studies are needed to confirm the antibody response duration and the association between frailty and COVID-19 vaccine response.

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on case fatality rates in a city in Southern Brazil

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have established that vaccination plays a significant role in reducing COVID-19-related deaths. Here, we investigated differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, and analyzed whether the age composition of confirmed cases has a significant effect on the variations in the observed CFRs across these groups.

METHODS

The study considered 59,853 confirmed cases and 1,687 deaths from COVID-19, reported between January 1 to October 20, 2021, by the Health Department of Londrina, a city in Southern Brazil. We used Negative Binomial regression models to estimate CFRs according to vaccination status and age range.

RESULTS

There are significant differences between the CFR for fully vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (IRR = 0.596, 95% CI [0.460 - 0.772], P < .001). Vaccinated populations experience fatality rates 40.4% lower than non-vaccinated. In addition, the age composition of confirmed cases explains more than two-thirds of the variation in the CFR between these 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel findings reinforce the importance of vaccination as an essential public health measure for reducing COVID-19 fatality rates in all age groups. The results also provide means for accurately assessing differences in CFRs across vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Such assessment is essential to inform and determine appropriate containment and mitigation interventions in Brazil and elsewhere.

The Fate of Sialic Acid and PEG Modified Epirubicin Liposomes in Aged versus Young Cells and Tumor Mice Models

In preclinical studies of young mice, nanoparticles showed excellent anti-tumor therapeutic effects by harnessing Peripheral Blood Monocytes (PBMs) and evading the immune system. However, the changes of age will inevitably affect PBMs and the immune system, and there is a serious lack of relevant research. Sialic acid (SA)-octadecylamine (ODA) was synthesized, and SA- or polyethylene glycol (PEG)-modified epirubicin (EPI) liposomes (EPI-SL and EPI-PL, respectively) were prepared to explore differences in antitumor treatment using 8-month-old and 8-week-old Kunming mice. Based on presented data, 8-month-old mice had more PBMs in peripheral blood than 8-week-old mice, and age differences resulted in different anti-tumor treatment effects following EPI-SL and EPI-PL treatment. Following EPI-PL administration, the tumor volume was significantly smaller in 8-week-old mice than in 8-month-old mice (* p < 0.05). Eight-month-old mice treated with EPI-SL (8M-SL) presented no damage to healthy tissue, with a 100% survival rate, and 50% mice in 8M-SL showed ‘shedding’ of tumor tissues from the growth site. Accordingly, 8-month-old mice treated with EPI-SL achieved the best therapeutic effect at different ages and with different liposomes. EPI-SL could improve the antitumor effect of 8-week-old and 8-month-old mice.

Why Physical Activity Should Be Considered in Clinical Trials for COVID-19 Vaccines: A Focus on Risk Groups

Since the World Health Organization declared the global COVID-19 state of emergency in early 2020, several vaccine candidates have emerged to control SARS-CoV-2, and some of them have been approved and implemented in vaccination campaigns worldwide. Although clinical trials for these vaccines have been carried out using highly controlled methods with accurate immunological tests, clinical questionnaires did not include questions concerning the physical activity profile among volunteers. It has been well established that physical activity plays a pivotal role in the immune response after vaccination, led by the activation of cytokines, antibodies, and cells. This concept should have been considered when evaluating the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, particularly in elderly and obese people. Here, we discuss data from the literature providing strong evidence regarding the importance of analyzing physical activity parameters to improve the accuracy of clinical trials on assessing the efficacy of vaccine candidates.

Immunogenicity of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in older residents of a long-term care facility: relation with age, frailty and prior infection status

Clinical and biological assessment of the COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in the frail population is of crucial importance. The study focuses on measuring the levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies before and after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccination among long-term care facility (LTCF) elderly residents. We conducted a prospective, single-center, observational study among LTCF residents. The study protocol was based on three blood sample acquisitions: first taken at baseline-5 days before the first dose of the vaccine, second-20 days after the first dose, and third-12 days after the second shot of the vaccine. The comparison was made for two cohorts: patients with and without prior COVID-19 infection. The data was collected from January to March 2021. A total number of 78 LTCF residents (55 women and 23 men) aged 62-104, 85.72 ± 7.59 years (mean ± SD), were enrolled in the study. All study participants were investigated for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike (S) protein IgG, using a chemiluminescent immunoassay. Frailty was assessed with the Clinical Frailty Scale. Among elderly COVID-19 survivors in LTCF, a single dose of vaccine significantly increased anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody levels. IgG concentration after a single and double dose was comparable, which may suggest that elderly COVID-19 survivors do not require a second dose of vaccine. For residents without a previous history of COVID-19, two doses are needed to achieve an effective serological response. The level of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies after vaccination with BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 did not correlate with the frailty and age of the studied individuals.

The Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Improving the Outcomes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

Background With the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), most countries took extreme measures to control the disease. Equitable access to safe and effective vaccines is critical to ending the COVID-19 pandemic. The Ministry of Health program in Saudi Arabia aimed to cover 17.4 million adults (70% of the adult population of Saudi Arabia) by the third quarter of 2021. We investigated the impact of the COVID-19 vaccine on the clinical course and outcomes of the admitted confirmed COVID-19 patients, in comparison to non-vaccinated patients. Methodology A retrospective cross-sectional record review was conducted for all hospitalized confirmed COVID-19 patients at Dammam Medical Complex (Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia) from June to July 2021. Two groups were studied according to the vaccination status (i.e., vaccinated and non-vaccinated). Information regarding comorbidities, length of stay, high oxygen requirements, ICU admission, and mortality data were collected and analyzed using the Python programming language (version 3.7.6) with the use of SciPy library (1.4.1) and Statsmodels module (v0.11.1). Results The sample included a total of 260 admitted confirmed COVID-19 cases. The mortality was significantly lower in the vaccinated group versus the non-vaccinated group with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.378 (CI 0.154-0.928). In addition, the OR of ICU admission was 0.476 (CI 0.218-1.042) and OR of endotracheal intubation was 0.561 (CI 0.249-1.265), but these did not reach statistical significance. We also detected a statistically significant relationship between mortality - regardless of vaccination status - and age ≥ 65 years (P=0.000, OR=7.51; 95%CI 3.13 to 18.04), chronic kidney disease (P=0.010, OR=5.62; CI 1.52 to 20.79), and renal transplant (P=0.037, OR=10.17; CI 1.15 to 89.76). Of note, most of our vaccinated patients received only a single dose (85%). Conclusion There is a significant reduction in mortality cases as well as less complicated hospital courses among the vaccinated group, in spite of the fact that most of our admitted patients had only a single vaccine shot. Suboptimal response to the vaccines was observed in the elder, chronic kidney disease, and renal transplant patients, hence the poorer outcomes in comparison to other patients.

Triple jeopardy in ageing: COVID-19, co-morbidities and inflamm-ageing

Covid-19 endangers lives, has disrupted normal life, changed the way medicine is practised and is likely to alter our world for the foreseeable future. Almost two years on since the presumptive first diagnosis of COVID-19 in China, more than two hundred and fifty million cases have been confirmed and more than five million people have died globally, with the figures rising daily. One of the most striking aspects of COVID-19 illness is the marked difference in individuals' experiences of the disease. Some, most often younger groups, are asymptomatic, whereas others become severely ill with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia or proceed to fatal organ disease. The highest death rates are in the older and oldest age groups and in people with co-morbidities such as diabetes, heart disease and obesity. Three major questions seem important to consider. What do we understand about changes in the immune system that might contribute to the older person's risk of developing severe COVID-19? What factors contribute to the higher morbidity and mortality in older people with COVID-19? How could immunocompetence in the older and the frailest individuals and populations be supported and enhanced to give protection from serious COVID-19 illness?

Comparison of Covid-19 antibody status after vaccination between residents in long-term geriatric care and residents assisted-living facilities

OBJECTIVE

To compare 2 CoV-SARS-2 ('anti-s') antibody levels after vaccination between residents in long-term geriatric care (LTGC) and residents in assisted-living facilities who had received two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 serology was tested with Quant II IgG CoV-SARS-2. Blood samples were collected 3-4 months after administration of the second vaccine dose.

RESULTS

Anti-s ≥ 50 AU/ml was found in 85.4% of 90 residents in LTGC (median 498 AU/ml) and 94.9% of 214 residents in assisted living (median 728 AU/ml). p = .006. Factors associated with anti-s < 300 AU/ml were multi-morbidity, diabetes mellitus and cancer.

Implications of Frailty in COVID-19

As the global coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory distress syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to cause higher mortality and hospitalization rates among older adults, strategies such as frailty screening have been suggested for resource allocation and clinical management. Frailty is a physiologic condition characterized by a decreased reserve to stressors and is associated with disability, hospitalization, and death. Measuring frailty can be a useful tool to determine the risk and prognosis of COVID-19 patients in the acute setting, and to provide higher quality of care for vulnerable individuals in the outpatient setting. A literature review was conducted to examine current research regarding frailty and COVID-19. Frailty can inform holistic care of COVID-19 patients, and further investigation is needed to elucidate how measuring frailty should guide treatment and prevention of COVID-19.

Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines in Ambulatory and Inpatient Care Settings

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the effectiveness of the vaccines against symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) currently authorized in the United States with respect to hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), or ambulatory care in an emergency department or urgent care clinic.

METHODS

We conducted a study involving adults (≥50 years of age) with Covid-19-like illness who underwent molecular testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We assessed 41,552 admissions to 187 hospitals and 21,522 visits to 221 emergency departments or urgent care clinics during the period from January 1 through June 22, 2021, in multiple states. The patients' vaccination status was documented in electronic health records and immunization registries. We used a test-negative design to estimate vaccine effectiveness by comparing the odds of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection among vaccinated patients with those among unvaccinated patients. Vaccine effectiveness was adjusted with weights based on propensity-for-vaccination scores and according to age, geographic region, calendar time (days from January 1, 2021, to the index date for each medical visit), and local virus circulation.

RESULTS

The effectiveness of full messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination (≥14 days after the second dose) was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87 to 91) against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to hospitalization, 90% (95% CI, 86 to 93) against infection leading to an ICU admission, and 91% (95% CI, 89 to 93) against infection leading to an emergency department or urgent care clinic visit. The effectiveness of full vaccination with respect to a Covid-19-associated hospitalization or emergency department or urgent care clinic visit was similar with the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines and ranged from 81% to 95% among adults 85 years of age or older, persons with chronic medical conditions, and Black or Hispanic adults. The effectiveness of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was 68% (95% CI, 50 to 79) against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to hospitalization and 73% (95% CI, 59 to 82) against infection leading to an emergency department or urgent care clinic visit.

CONCLUSIONS

Covid-19 vaccines in the United States were highly effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring hospitalization, ICU admission, or an emergency department or urgent care clinic visit. This vaccine effectiveness extended to populations that are disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies formed in response to the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1237 mRNA vaccine by commercial antibody tests

Background

With rapid approval of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, the ability of clinical laboratories to detect vaccine-induced antibodies with available high-throughput commercial assays is unknown. We aimed to determine if commercial serology assays can detect vaccine-induced antibodies (VIAs) and understand the vaccination response.

Methods

This cohort study recruited healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities (receiving the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 products, respectively) who underwent serum collection pre-vaccination (BNT162b2 group), 2-weeks post vaccination (both groups), and pre-2nd dose (both groups). Sera were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG using four commercial assays (Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG, Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant, DiaSorin Trimeric S IgG, and GenScript cPASS) to detect VIAs. Secondary outcomes included description of post-vaccination antibody response and correlation with neutralizing titers.

Results

225 participants (177 receiving BNT162b2 and 48 receiving mRNA-1273) were included (median age 41 years; 66–78% female). Nucleocapsid IgG was found in 4.1% and 21.9% of the BNT162b2 (baseline) and mRNA-1273 (2-weeks post first dose). All anti-spike assays detected antibodies post-vaccination, with an average increase of 87.2% (range 73.8–94.3%; BNT162b2), and 25.2% (range 23.8–26.7%; mRNA-1273) between the first and last sampling time points (all p < 0.05). Neutralizing antibodies were detected at all post-vaccine timepoints for both vaccine arms, with increasing titers over time (all p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Anti-spike vaccine-induced SARS-CoV-2 IgG are detectable by commercially available high-throughput assays and increases over time. Prior to second dose of vaccination, neutralizing antibodies are detectable in 73–89% of individuals, suggesting most individuals would have some degree of protection from subsequent infection.

A comprehensive analysis of the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines

The numbers of cases and deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are continuously increasing. Many people are concerned about the efficacy and safety of the COVID-19 vaccines. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the published trials of COVID-19 vaccines and the real-world data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Globally, our research found that the efficacy of all vaccines exceeded 70%, and RNA-based vaccines had the highest efficacy of 94.29%; moreover, Black or African American people, young people, and males may experience greater vaccine efficacy. The spectrum of vaccine-related adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is extremely broad, and the most frequent ADRs are pain, fatigue, and headache. Most ADRs are tolerable and are mainly grade 1 or 2 in severity. Some severe ADRs have been identified (thromboembolic events, 21-75 cases per million doses; myocarditis/pericarditis, 2-3 cases per million doses). In summary, vaccines are a powerful tool that can be used to control the COVID-19 pandemic, with high efficacy and tolerable ADRs. In addition, the spectrum of ADRs associated with the vaccines is broad, and most of the reactions appear within a week, although some may be delayed. Therefore, ADRs after vaccination need to be identified and addressed in a timely manner.

The degree of frailty as a translational measure of health in aging

Frailty is a multiply determined, age-related state of increased risk for adverse health outcomes. We review how the degree of frailty conditions the development of late-life diseases and modifies their expression. The risks for frailty range from subcellular damage to social determinants. These risks are often synergistic-circumstances that favor damage also make repair less likely. We explore how age-related damage and decline in repair result in cellular and molecular deficits that scale up to tissue, organ and system levels, where they are jointly expressed as frailty. The degree of frailty can help to explain the distinction between carrying damage and expressing its usual clinical manifestations. Studying people-and animals-who live with frailty, including them in clinical trials and measuring the impact of the degree of frailty are ways to better understand the diseases of old age and to establish best practices for the care of older adults.

Vaccination hesitancy and the "myth" on mRNA-based vaccines in Italy in the COVID-19 era: Does urgency meet major safety criteria?

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Italy has started with a huge perplexity about vaccine efficacy, vaccine-borne adverse effects and vaccine clinical trial studies. In this commentary I tried to elucidate these issues, which represent a fundamental topic to be thoroughly addressed in COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 on care-home mortality and life expectancy in Scotland

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 deaths are commoner among care-home residents, but the mortality burden has not been quantified.

METHODS

Care-home residency was identified via a national primary care registration database linked to mortality data. Life expectancy was estimated using Makeham-Gompertz models to (i) describe yearly life expectancy from November 2015 to October 2020 (ii) compare life expectancy (during 2016-18) between care-home residents and the wider population and (iii) apply care-home life expectancy estimates to COVID-19 death counts to estimate years of life lost (YLL).

RESULTS

Among care-home residents, life expectancy in 2015/16 to 2019/20 ranged from 2.7 to 2.3 years for women and 2.3 to 1.8 years for men. Age-sex-specific life expectancy in 2016-18 in care-home residents was lower than in the Scottish population (10 and 2.5 years in those aged 70 and 90, respectively). Applying care home-specific life expectancies to COVID-19 deaths yield mean YLLs for care-home residents of 2.6 and 2.2 for women and men, respectively. In total YLL care-home residents have lost 3,560 years in women and 2,046 years in men. Approximately half of deaths and a quarter of YLL attributed to COVID-19 were accounted for by the 5% of over-70s who were care-home residents.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 infection has led to the loss of substantial years of life in care-home residents aged 70 years and over in Scotland. Prioritising the 5% of older adults who are care-home residents for vaccination is justified not only in terms of total deaths, but also in terms of YLL.

Mortality Rate and Characteristics of Deaths Following COVID-19 Vaccination

Background: The emergency use authorization for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines brought both hopes and concerns to the Americans and others. We aimed to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19 vaccination and presented characteristics of deaths following COVID-19 vaccination.

Methods: Data on deaths following COVID-19 vaccination were obtained from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) from December 11, 2020 through January 8, 2021. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID Data Tracker was used to identify the total number of people receiving COVID-19 vaccines during the same period to estimate the mortality rate. Stratified analysis was conducted by the location of vaccination.

Results: As of January 8, 2021, 55 deaths were reported, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 vaccination was 8.2 per million population. A total of 37 deaths were reported among long-term care facility residents, and the mortality rate was 53.4 per million population. Top reported comorbidities associated with deaths included hypertension, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, and heart failure. In addition, dementia was more likely to be associated with deaths vaccinated at long-term care facilities than at other locations.

Conclusion: The benefits of COVID-19 vaccines outweigh the potential risks in older frail populations, and our findings do not support actions to exclude older adults from being vaccinated. However, continued monitoring of COVID-19 vaccination is still warranted.

Considering Frailty in SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Development: How Geriatricians Can Assist

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted frail older adults, especially residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities. This has appropriately led to prioritization of frail older adults and LTC residents, and those who care for them, in the vaccination effort against COVID-19. Older adults have distinct immunological, clinical, and practical complexity, which can be understood through a lens of frailty. Even so, frailty has not been considered in studies of COVID-19 vaccines to date, leading to concerns that the vaccines have not been optimally tailored for and evaluated in this population even as vaccination programs are being implemented. This is an example of how vaccines are often not tested in Phase 1/2/3 clinical trials in the people most in need of protection. We argue that geriatricians, as frailty specialists, have much to contribute to the development, testing and implementation of COVID-19 vaccines in older adults. We discuss roles for geriatricians in ten stages of the vaccine development process, covering vaccine design, trial design, trial recruitment, establishment and interpretation of illness definitions, safety monitoring, consideration of relevant health measures such as frailty and function, analysis methods to account for frailty and differential vulnerability, contributions in regulatory and advisory roles, post-marketing surveillance, and program implementation and public health messaging. In presenting key recommendations pertinent to each stage, we hope to contribute to a dialogue on how to push the field of vaccinology to embrace the complexity of frailty. Making vaccines that can benefit frail older adults will benefit everyone in the fight against COVID-19.

Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy.

METHODS

We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f).

RESULTS

Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%).

CONCLUSIONS

Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.