Survival probabilities and hazard functions of malignant melanoma in Germany 1972-1996, an analysis of 10433 patients. Evolution of gender differences and malignancy

Prognosis and conditional nomogram of cervical spine fracture in patients with severe spinal cord injury: a multicenter retrospective study

INTRODUCTION

Cervical spine fractures with severe spinal cord injury (SCI) are common following cervical spine trauma and are associated with a high mortality rate. Understanding the mortality patterns of patients with cervical spine fractures and severe SCI can offer valuable evidence to surgeons and family members who are required to make critical healthcare decisions. The authors aimed to evaluate the instantaneous death risk and conditional survival (CS) of such patients and developed conditional nomograms to account for different periods of survivors and predict the survival rates.

METHODS

Their instantaneous death risks were calculated using the hazard function, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the survival rates. Cox regression was used to choose the variables for the construction of the nomograms. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots were used to validate the performance of the nomograms.

RESULTS

The authors finally included 450 patients with cervical spine fractures and severe SCI using propensity score matching. The instantaneous death risk was the highest during the first 12 months after injury. Surgical treatment can help decrease the instantaneous death risk quickly, especially in early-term surgery. The 5-year CS increased constantly from 73.3% at baseline to 88.0% after 2 years of survival. Conditional nomograms were constructed at baseline and in those who survived for 6 and 12 months. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curves indicated that the nomograms had a good performance.

CONCLUSION

Their results improve our understanding of the instantaneous death risk of patients in different periods following injury. CS demonstrated the exact survival rate among medium-term and long-term survivors. Conditional nomograms are suitable for different survival periods in predicting the probability of survival. Conditional nomograms help in understanding the prognosis and improve the shared decision-making approaches.

Trends and projections in cutaneous melanoma death in the Netherlands from 1950 to 2045

ABSTRACT

Child sun protection has recently been linked to the future disappearance of fatal melanoma in adults in successive generations. In the Netherlands, however, mortality rates from melanoma have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation since 2010, which may be compatible with a birth cohort effect by sun-protective measures and screening. To study the trajectories ahead a trend analysis was applied. Numbers of people with cutaneous melanoma as underlying cause of death from 1950 to 2018 and population data were derived from Statistics Netherlands. A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period, and cohorts born in the successive periods of 1889 to 1979. Age-period-cohort modelling outcomes and population forecasts provided projections of mortality until 2045. Based on 24,151 cases of melanoma death (13,256 men, 10,895 women), age-standardised mortality rates were similar from 1950 to 1989 for both genders, and increased thereafter more in men. The age-curve patterns changed gradually towards higher death rates at older age, implying the existence of a birth cohort effect. The age-period-cohort models showed an increase in melanoma mortality rates in successive generations. For women, the birth cohort effect plateaued for generations born since the mid-1980s. The projected total mortality number was predicted to rise in the next 3 decades.It is concluded that a small future decline of mortality in younger generations can be expected in the Netherlands, but mortality is still rising for the total population.

Survival prediction in patients with cutaneous melanoma by tumour lymphangiogenesis

Objectives: Melanoma induces lymphangiogenesis by secreting lymphangiogenic growth factors. The aim of this study was to examine the role of tumour lymphangiogenesis in survival of patients with cutaneous melanoma. Methods: Immunostaining of one hundred melanoma specimens was done with lymphatic-specific antibody D2-40. The quantification of tumour lymphangiogenesis - lymphatic vessel density (LVD) and lymphatic vessel area (LVA) - was calculated by computer-assisted morphometric analysis. Results: High intratumoural LVD, high peritumoural LVD, male gender, greater tumour thickness and Clark level IV/V were significantly associated with shorter disease-free survival (p= 0.001, p= 0.004, p= 0.004, p= 0.000 and p= 0.008, respectively) and melanoma-specific survival (p= 0.002, p= 0.002, p= 0.001, p= 0.000 and p= 0.017, respectively), while the trunk melanoma site was significantly associated only with shorter disease-free survival (p= 0.033). No significant association of LVA with survival was found. At multivariate analysis, peritumoural LVD [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.143, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.097-4.189, p= 0.026)] and melanoma thickness (HR = 1.276, 95%CI 1.106-1.473, p= 0.001) were independent predictors of disease-free survival, while intratumoural LVD (HR = 3.446, 95%CI 1.465-8.109, p= 0.005), peritumoural LVD (HR = 2.742, 95%CI 1.313-5.725, p= 0.007) and gender (HR = 2.880, 95%CI 1.304-6.362, p= 0.009) were independent predictors of melanoma-specific survival. Conclusion: Тhis study shows that LVD enables better prediction of survival than melanoma thickness and other clinical-pathological parameters. Intratumoural LVD is the most significant predictor of melanoma-specific survival, while only peritumoural LVD has a significant impact on both, a disease-free survival and a melanoma-specific survival.

Cancer progression and the invisible phase of metastatic colonization

Metastatic dissemination occurs very early in the malignant progression of a cancer but the clinical manifestation of metastases often takes years. In recent decades, 5-year survival of patients with many solid cancers has increased due to earlier detection, local disease control and adjuvant therapies. As a consequence, we are confronted with an increase in late relapses as more antiproliferative cancer therapies prolong disease courses, raising questions about how cancer cells survive, evolve or stop growing and finally expand during periods of clinical latency. I argue here that the understanding of early metastasis formation, particularly of the currently invisible phase of metastatic colonization, will be essential for the next stage in adjuvant therapy development that reliably prevents metachronous metastasis.

Melanoma: Prognostic Factors and Factors Predictive of Response to Therapy

BACKGROUND

A better understanding of prognostic factors and biomarkers that predict response to treatment is required in order to further improve survival rates in patients with melanoma. Prognostic Factors: The most important histopathological factors prognostic of worse outcomes in melanoma are sentinel lymph node involvement, increased tumor thickness, ulceration and higher mitotic rate. Poorer survival may also be related to several clinical factors, including male gender, older age, axial location of the melanoma, elevated serum levels of lactate dehydrogenase and S100B. Predictive Biomarkers: Several biomarkers have been investigated as being predictive of response to melanoma therapies. For anti-Programmed Death-1(PD-1)/Programmed Death-Ligand 1 (PD-L1) checkpoint inhibitors, PD-L1 tumor expression was initially proposed to have a predictive role in response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 treatment. However, patients without PD-L1 expression also have a survival benefit with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy, meaning it cannot be used alone to select patients for treatment, in order to affirm that it could be considered a correlative, but not a predictive marker. A range of other factors have shown an association with treatment outcomes and offer potential as predictive biomarkers for immunotherapy, including immune infiltration, chemokine signatures, and tumor mutational load. However, none of these have been clinically validated as a factor for patient selection. For combined targeted therapy (BRAF and MEK inhibition), lactate dehydrogenase level and tumor burden seem to have a role in patient outcomes.

CONCLUSION

With increasing knowledge, the understanding of melanoma stage-specific prognostic features should further improve. Moreover, ongoing trials should provide increasing evidence on the best use of biomarkers to help select the most appropriate patients for tailored treatment with immunotherapies and targeted therapies.

Is oestrogen an important player in melanoma progression?

The oestrogen-dependent regulation of cell behaviour is realised by stimulation of specific oestrogen receptors. The classical oestrogen receptors ERα and ERβ are transcription factors, and they modulate expression of hormonally regulated genes, while the third one, GPER, is thought to be responsible for the observed rapid, non-genomic cellular response. Oestrogen dependency is attributed to a number of cancers, including breast, ovarian and endometrial cancer; however, there is still growing evidence that melanoma should also be cited as a hormonally dependent tumour. This comes from the observations of gender-related differences in melanoma progression and reports concerning the history of the malignant course of melanomas during pregnancy. Although, the observations of oestrogen regulation of melanoma progression are controversial, the effect of oestrogen should not be neglected, as the skin possesses its own hormonal microenvironment. This aspect of melanoma progression should be taken under careful consideration as it may offer new therapeutic possibilities.

Burden of disease due to cutaneous melanoma has increased in the Netherlands since 1991

BACKGROUND

The burden of disease, describing loss of health and death due to a disease, has not been fully studied for melanoma in the general population over time.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the burden of disease due to melanoma in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Age- and sex-specific incidence data from all patients with melanoma in the Netherlands between 1991 and 2010 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Melanoma-specific mortality and life expectancy data were obtained from Statistics Netherlands. Melanoma duration was calculated using the DISMOD software from the World Health Organization. The years of life lived with disability (YLD) and years of life lost (YLL) due to melanoma were calculated using Dutch disability weights, incidence and mortality of melanoma, and the life expectancy from the general population. The number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was estimated by adding YLD and YLL.

RESULTS

The world-standardized incidence rates of melanoma have more than doubled for both men (7·1 per 100 000 inhabitants in 1991 to 17·0 in 2010) and women (9·4 per 100 000 inhabitants in 1991 to 19·8 in 2010). Likewise, the burden of melanoma to society has increased rapidly. The YLD for men increased from 4795 (1991-4) to 12 441 (2007-10), and for women from 7513 (1991-4) to 16 544 (2007-10). In 2007-10 the total YLL due to melanoma was 30 651 for men and 26 244 for women compared with 17 238 and 16 900, respectively, in 1991-4. The DALYs increased by 96% for men, from 22 033 (1991-4) to 43 092 (2007-10), and by 75% for women, from 24 413 (1991-4) to 42 788 (2007-10).

CONCLUSIONS

Melanoma is becoming a great burden to Dutch society.

Sonographic abnormality of the substantia nigra in melanoma patients

BACKGROUND

Evidence derived from large epidemiological studies suggests an association between Parkinson's disease (PD) and malignant melanoma. Transcranial sonography of the midbrain reveals an extended echogenic substantia nigra (SN) area in a high proportion of patients with PD. This characteristic, in the context of PD, may signal degeneration of dopaminergic nigrostriatal projection neurons. Demonstration of an increased prevalence of abnormal echogenic SN in melanoma patients could add weight to the hypothesis of an underlying common pathogenic pathway of both diseases.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional observational study. Transcranial sonography of the SN region was performed on 31 patients suffering from malignant melanoma and 29 healthy participants. In addition, patients and controls were screened for motor and non-motor symptoms of PD.

RESULTS

The echogenic SN area was abnormally extended in 42% of melanoma patients versus 7% of control subjects (χ(2) = 9.811, P = .002). Mean echogenic SN area (SN[R, L]) was significantly larger in melanoma patients than in controls (patients, 0.21 ± 0.07 cm(2); controls, 0.15 ± 0.04 cm(2) [mean ± SD]; unpaired t test, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide additional evidence in favor of a common pathogenic pathway of PD and malignant melanoma and raise the possibility that their association is closer than previously assumed.

Time course and pattern of metastasis of cutaneous melanoma differ between men and women

Background

This study identified sex differences in progression of cutaneous melanoma.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Of 7,338 patients who were diagnosed as an invasive primary CM without clinically detectable metastases from 1976 to 2008 at the University of Tuebingen in Germany, 1,078 developed subsequent metastases during follow up. The metastatic pathways were defined in these patients and analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate survival analysis was performed using Cox modeling. In 18.7% of men and 29.2% of women (P<0.001) the first metastasis following diagnosis of primary tumor was locoregional as satellite/in-transit metastasis. The majority of men (54.0%) and women (47.6%, P = 0.035) exhibited direct regional lymph node metastasis. Direct distant metastasis from the stage of the primary tumor was observed in 27.3% of men and 23.2% of women (P = 0.13). Site of first metastasis was the most important prognostic factor of survival after recurrence in multivariate analysis (HR:1.3; 95% CI: 1.0–1.6 for metastasis to the regional lymph nodes vs. satellite/in-transit recurrence, and HR:5.5; 95% CI: 4.2–7.1 for distant metastasis vs. satellite/in-transit recurrence, P<0.001). Median time to distant metastasis was 40.5 months (IQR, 58.75) in women and 33 months (IQR, 44.25) in men (P = 0.002). Five-year survival after distant recurrence probability was 5.2% (95% CI: 1.4–2.5) for men compared with 15.3% (95% CI: 11.1–19.5; P = 0.008) for women.

Conclusions/Significance

Both, the pattern of metastatic spread with more locoregional metastasis in women, and the time course with retracted metastasis in women contributed to the more favorable outcome of women. Furthermore, the total rate of metastasis is increased in men. Interestingly, there is also a much more favorable long term survival of women after development of distant metastasis. It remains a matter of debate and of future research, whether hormonal or immunologic factors may be responsible for these sex differences.

Melanoma in adolescents and young adults (ages 15-39 years): United States, 1999-2006

BACKGROUND

Invasive melanoma of the skin is the third most common cancer diagnosed among adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) in the United States. Understanding the burden of melanoma in this age group is important to identifying areas for etiologic research and in developing effective prevention approaches aimed at reducing melanoma risk.

METHODS

Melanoma incidence data reported from 38 National Program of Cancer Registries and/or Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results statewide cancer registries covering nearly 67.2% of the US population were used to estimate age-adjusted incidence rates for persons 15-39 years of age. Incidence rate ratios were calculated to compare rates between demographic groups.

RESULTS

Melanoma incidence was higher among females (age-adjusted incidence rates = 9.74; 95% confidence interval 9.62-9.86) compared with males (age-adjusted incidence rates = 5.77; 95% confidence interval 5.68-5.86), increased with age, and was higher in non-Hispanic white compared with Hispanic white and black, American Indians/Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders populations. Melanoma incidence rates increased with year of diagnosis in females but not males. The majority of melanomas were diagnosed on the trunk in all racial and ethnic groups among males but only in non-Hispanic whites among females. Most melanomas were diagnosed at localized stage, and among those melanomas with known histology, the majority were superficial spreading.

LIMITATIONS

Accuracy of melanoma cases reporting was limited because of some incompleteness (delayed reporting) or nonspecific reporting including large proportion of unspecified histology.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in incidence rates by anatomic site, histology, and stage among adolescents and young adults by race, ethnicity, and sex suggest that both host characteristics and behaviors influence risk. These data suggest areas for etiologic research around gene-environment interactions and the need for targeted cancer control activities specific to adolescents and young adult populations.

Response, survival, and prognostic factors after hepatic arterial chemoembolization in patients with liver metastases from cutaneous melanoma

We reviewed the medical records of 42 patients with cutaneous melanoma metastatic to the liver who underwent hepatic artery chemoembolization (HACE) at our institution. HACE resulted in radiologic response (38.9%) or disease stabilization (47.2%) in most patients. The median overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) of liver disease were 7.7 and 6 months, respectively. Patient's age, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, type of treatment, number of extrahepatic metastatic sites, and response to therapy were found to be significant predictors of OS after HACE. Prolonged survival was seen in patients who responded to HACE (p = .034).

Late recurrence (10 years or more) of malignant melanoma in south-east Germany (Saxony). A single-centre analysis of 1881 patients with a follow-up of 10 years or more

BACKGROUND

Late recurrent melanoma (MM) is rare.

OBJECTIVE

In the present study, we analysed the frequency of late recurrent MM in south-eastern Germany.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In our centre, 2314 MM patients were documented (1972-2001). A total of 1881 patients in stage I or II (AJCC) with a follow-up of > or = 10 years were selected and screened for late recurrence (> or = 10 years after diagnosis).

RESULTS

Twenty patients were identified (1.1%), 13 women and 7 men, median age 44 years (age range 30-74 years). Nineteen suffered from cutaneous MM and one had a uveal MM (excluded from further analysis). The primary cutaneous MM occurred on the trunk (6), on the upper limb/shoulder (4), or on the lower limb (9). MM type was superficial spreading (13), nodular (2), acrolentiginous (1), lentigo maligna-type (1) or unclassified (2). Tumour thickness varied from 0.33 mm to 9.5 mm (median 2.0 mm). Ulceration was seen in four, and spontaneous regression in two MM patients. Invasiveness into blood or lymphatic vessels occurred in seven MM patients. The largest period from primary diagnosis to recurrence was 25.1 years with a median of 13.9 years. Metastatic spread was loco-regional (12 patients) or distant (7). Four patients were survivors and three of these had in-transit metastases only. Overall survival was 14.7 +/- 6.6 years. Statistical analysis could not identify factors significantly associated with late recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Late recurrence is a clinical sign of melanoma dormancy. We conclude that late recurrences argue for a lifelong follow-up of melanoma patients.

Superior survival of females among 10,538 Dutch melanoma patients is independent of Breslow thickness, histologic type and tumor site

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, female melanoma patients have superior survival compared with males, which is usually ascribed to earlier detection among women and/or a more favorable site distribution. We studied gender difference in melanoma survival in a large population-based setting after adjusting for tumor-related variables and offer clues for further research.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 10,538 patients diagnosed with melanoma from 1993 to 2004 in The Netherlands were included. Multivariate analyses were carried out to estimate adjusted relative excess risk (RER) of dying for men compared with women, adjusted for the patient and tumor characteristics.

RESULTS

Univariate relative survival analyses showed a RER of dying of 2.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.38-3.06] for men compared with women. After adjusting for time period of diagnosis, region, age, Breslow thickness, histologic subtype, body site, nodal and metastatic status, a significant excess mortality risk was still present for males (RER 1.87, 95% CI 1.65-2.10). Among patients with advanced disease and in those < 45 or > or = 60, the adjusted risk estimates were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

The superior survival of women compared with men persisted after adjusting for multiple confounding variables indicating that factors other than stage at diagnosis and body site reduce mortality risk in female melanoma patients.

Up-to-date survival estimates and historical trends of cutaneous malignant melanoma in the south-east of The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

We present survival outcomes of patients registered in the Dutch population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry (ECR).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data on patients diagnosed with a melanoma between 1980 and 2002 were obtained from the ECR. Data on vital status up to 1 January 2005 were obtained, up-to-date survival rates were calculated using period analysis. Multivariate analyses were carried out using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Ten-year crude survival rates were 82% for women and 60% for men (P < 0.05). Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <or= 2.0 mm) had 5-year crude survival rates >74%, for melanomas >4.0 mm these rates were <65% (P < 0.05). In the early 1980s, 5-year relative survival rates were 84% and 62% for young (<60 years) women and men, and 66% and 69%, respectively, for the elderly (aged 60+). In the period 2000-2002, these rates had improved to >90% for females and to >72% for males. Multivariate analyses showed increased hazard ratios with increasing age and Breslow thickness, being male, having a melanoma on the trunk or unknown sites and having a nodular melanoma.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the absence of improvements in treatment options for melanoma, survival improved significantly, except for elderly males.

Epidemiología y supervivencia del melanoma cutáneo en España: estudio de 552 casos (1994-2003)

Studies on epidemiology and survival of patients diagnosed of cutaneous melanoma in our country are few. We described epidemiological, clinical, histopathologic and survival characteristics of patients diagnosed of cutaneous melanoma at Hospital Gregorio Marañón of Madrid during ten years (1994-2003). The incidence of melanoma has doubled in the last decade. An important proportion of melanomas continues to be diagnosed in advanced stages (III-IV; 14.5%). The following factors were associated with a poor global survival: Tumor thickness, ulceration, nodular type, masculine gender and age older than 65.

Survival and prognostic variables of cutaneous melanoma observed between 1995 and 2000 at Istituto Dermopatico Dell'Immacolata (IDI-IRCCS), Rome, Italy

INTRODUCTION

Melanoma is an increasingly common malignancy of melanocytes, with incidence rates steadily rising over the past several decades. The objective of this study was to evaluate 5-year survival and to investigate the association between melanoma mortality and clinical and histological features.

METHODS

We conducted a 5-year cohort study among 1020 patients from the same geographic area (Rome) with a single primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed between January 1995 and December 2000. Survival probability was determined by Kaplan-Meier estimates, and prognostic factors were evaluated by multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazards model).

RESULTS

Survival decreased with increasing age (P for trend <0.049) and Breslow thickness (P for trend <0.0001). In the multivariate Cox model, Breslow thickness was the only independent prognostic factor for mortality in primary melanoma patients. The risk of death among patients with melanoma increased with increasing tumour thickness 0.76-1.49 mm (relative risk (RR) 2.67, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.63-11.4); 1.50-4.0 mm (RR 6.38, 95% CI 1.75-23.2), >4.0 mm (RR 34.6, 95% CI 8.23-145.7) (P for trend <0.0001). The Years of Life Lost (YLLs) for the Breslow categories < or =0.75 mm, 0.76-1.49 mm, 1.50-4.0 mm and >4.0 mm were 65.4, 153.6, 274.3 and 317.6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study shows the great importance of secondary melanoma prevention and illustrates how many years of life could be saved by early diagnosis.

Cutaneous melanoma: uncommon presentations

Melanoma is the most important nonepithelial skin cancer. The diagnosis is usually made by clinical examination including dermatoscopy and histology. There are, however, variants of melanoma that miss the characteristic signs of pigmented lesions which are easily detectable when using the ABCD rule.

[Epidemiology of cutaneous melanoma: descriptive data in France and Europe]

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of melanoma and the resulting mortality have been the subject of many studies. However, controversy remains as to the interpretation of the number of cases observed and the existence of an actual "epidemic" of melanomas in fair-skinned populations.

OBJECTIVES

Analyze the descriptive epidemiological data available concerning cutaneous melanomas in France and in Europe.

METHODS

Data regarding incidence and mortality published in the literature and on the Internet were reviewed and analyzed.

RESULTS

In France, between 1980 and 2000, the standardized worldwide population incidence rate of melanoma increased from 2.4 to 7.6 per 100.000 inhabitants/years in men and from 3.9 to 9.5 in women. In the Haut-Rhin department in France, where Breslow indexes are registered, the increase in incidence was accompanied by an increase in the proportion of thin melanomas. In the year 2000, the estimated number of new cases of cutaneous melanomas was of 7231, with 58 p. 100 female and 42 p. 100 male cases. Great geographical disparity among the 9 departments in France equipped with registers was noted. This increase in incidence was accompanied by an increase in mortality. Between 1969 and 1997, mortality due to melanoma was multiplied by 2.7 in women and by 2.9 in men. In the year 2000, 1364 deaths were attributed to a melanoma. The standardized worldwide mortality rates were of 1.6/100000 inhabitants/years in men and 1.1/100000 inhabitants/years in women. In Europe, a great increase in the incidence and mortality has been registered in all countries since the nineteen fifties. It was earlier and greater in northern European countries, followed by western European countries, and finally by eastern and southern countries. There was great geographical disparity, with a double decreasing North-South East-West gradient. Analysis of the recent trends in development, in countries with high incidence such as those of northern Europe, showed a trend towards the stabilization in the incidence and decreased mortality in young adults.

DISCUSSION

In France, as in Europe, the extensive increase in incidence of melanoma and resulting mortality is a reality, reaching a peak in the northern European countries. The decrease in mortality observed recently in young cohorts in these countries and in Eastern Europe may announce an ultimate decrease in the older populations and the rest of Europe. Massive primary and secondary prevention campaigns seem effective and warrant reinforcement.

Non-compliance with the re-excision guidelines for cutaneous melanoma in The Netherlands does not influence survival

AIM

To evaluate causes and consequences of not adhering to the clinical practice guideline for cutaneous malignant melanoma.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of the clinical records of 454 subjects whose pathological reports were obtained from a population-based cancer registry to assess determinants and effects of non-compliance of physicians with the excision policy and the related clinical practice guideline for patients with primary localized cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). A comparative analysis was performed of patients who did and did not undergo re-excision (compliance versus non-compliance with the guideline). Subjects diagnosed in 1988, 1993 and 1997, just 1 year after publication of the (adapted) guideline, were followed until death due to any cause or until July 1st 2003.

RESULTS

Old age was the most important determinant of non-compliance. After adjusting for age at diagnosis, gender, subsite and Breslow thickness there was no significant difference in overall survival between the compliance group and the non-compliance group.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-compliance to the guideline is more common in older patients and in patients with melanoma in the head and neck region. After adjusting for confounders, a significant effect of complying with the guidelines on overall survival could not be observed.

Development of prognostic factors and survival in cutaneous melanoma over 25 years

BACKGROUND

Recent studies revealed that incidence rates of cutaneous melanoma (CM) were leveling off predominantly among younger people and patterns suggested birth-cohort effects. The current study analyzed the development of prognostic factors and survival in incident CM over 25 years.

METHODS

All 45,483 patients with incident CM diagnosed between 1976 and 2000 recorded by the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry were considered. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to judge time trends. Trends of survival rates were tested with the multivariate Cox model.

RESULTS

Median tumor thickness decreased from 1.81 mm in 1976 to 0.53 mm in 2000 (P < 0.0001). The percentages of in situ and level II CM increased, respectively (P < 0.0001). The percentage of ulcerated CM decreased (P < 0.0001). The percentage of superficial spreading melanoma increased, whereas the percentage of nodular melanoma decreased (P < 0.0001). These time trends were all significant in the strata of gender, however, male patients presented in general with more advanced disease. Between 1976 and 2000, the average patient got older (P < 0.0001). The percentage of patients diagnosed with the primary tumor alone increased (P < 0.0001). Across the 25 years of observation, adjusted survival rates did not increase for females (P = 0.1561) but they increased for males (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The data demonstrated a strong trend towards prognostically more favorable CM most likely due to earlier diagnosis. Men and older people should be the focus of health promotion activities as they presented with more advanced disease.

Monitoring stage-specific trends in melanoma incidence across Europe reveals the need for more complete information on diagnostic characteristics

Cutaneous malignant melanoma has been characterized by rapid and steady increases in incidence and mortality in white populations. Some reports mentioned declining trends in the mean thickness of these tumours, but other studies suggested a stable incidence of thick melanomas. The aim of this study was to describe the stage distribution of melanomas across Europe, with particular reference to temporal trends. Twenty-three cancer registries provided data sets containing information on stage and histology, 21 of which were used for a general description and nine for trends analyses. Despite a preponderance of missing data, interesting patterns emerged: a less favourable stage distribution in populations with relatively low incidence, but high case-fatality rates, and a favourable trend in stage and histology distribution over time, including a shift from later to earlier stages in recent years. Early detection campaigns raising awareness for thin lesions can potentially improve melanoma survival rates. Monitoring of stage-specific trends in melanoma incidence can assess the impact of such interventions. This paper demonstrates the potential utility of high-quality, timely cancer registry data in pursuing such public health objectives and addresses the need for more complete information on diagnostic features of melanoma patients. This will allow more informative evaluations of preventive strategies.

Non-self-discrimination as a driving concept in the identification of an immunodominant HMW-MAA epitopic peptide sequence by autoantibodies from melanoma cancer patients

We analyzed the sera of patients with melanoma to define the human humoral autoantibody profile towards HMW-MAA. Computational proteome scanning using the non-self-discrimination principle as a guide led to the individuation of the low-similarity HMW-MAA781-789RATVWMLRL peptide fragment as an immunodominant B-cell epitope. Linear B-cell determinant individuation was experimentally validated by dot blot immunoassay and NMR spectroscopy analysis. Regulation of physiologic self-reactivity by the non-self-discrimination principle is discussed.

Lower incidence rates but thicker melanomas in Eastern Europe before 1992

The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of melanoma across Europe with regard to Breslow thickness and body-site distribution. Incidence data from Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents and the EUROCARE-melanoma database were used: 28?117 melanoma cases from 20 cancer registries in 12 European countries, diagnosed between 1978 and 1992. Regression analysis and general linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Melanomas in Eastern Europe were on average 1.4 mm thicker (P<0.05) than in Western Europe and appeared more often on the trunk. From 1978 to 1992, their Breslow thickness had decreased in Western but not Eastern Europe. There was a latitude gradient in incidence, with highest rates in southern regions in Eastern Europe and an inverse gradient in Western Europe, with highest rates in the North. Mortality:incidence ratios were less favourable in southern parts across Europe, especially in Eastern Europe. If Eastern European populations copy the sunbathing behaviour of the West it is likely that in the near future a higher melanoma incidence can be expected there.

Changing epidemiology of malignant cutaneous melanoma in Europe 1953-1997: rising trends in incidence and mortality but recent stabilizations in western Europe and decreases in Scandinavia

We analyzed time trends in incidence of and mortality from malignant cutaneous melanoma in European populations since 1953. Data were extracted from the EUROCIM database of incidence data from 165 cancer registries. Mortality data were derived from the WHO database. During the 1990s, incidence rates were by far highest in northern and western Europe, whereas mortality was higher in males in eastern and southern Europe. Melanoma rates have been rising steadily, albeit with substantial geographic variation. In northern Europe, a deceleration in these trends occurred recently in persons aged under 70. Joinpoint analyses indicated that changes in these trends took place in the early 1980s. In western Europe, mortality rates have also recently leveled off [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) from -13.6% (n.s.) to 3.3%], whereas in eastern and southern Europe both incidence and mortality rates are still increasing [incidence EAPCs 2.3-8.9%, mortality EAPCs -1.8% (n.s.) to 7.2%]. Models including the effects of age, period and birth cohort were required to adequately describe the rising incidence trends in most European populations, with a few exceptions. Time trends in mortality were adequately summarized on fitting either an age-cohort model (with the leveling off of rates starting in birth cohorts between 1930 and 1940) or an age-period-cohort model. The most plausible explanations for the deceleration or decline in the incidence and mortality trends in recent years in northern (and to a lesser extent western) Europe are earlier detection and more frequent excision of pigmented lesions and a growing public awareness of the dangers of excessive sunbathing.