The scope for virulence management: a comment on Ewald's view on the evolution of virulence

Virulence and community dynamics of fungal species with vertical and horizontal transmission on a plant with multiple infections

The virulence evolution of multiple infections of parasites from the same species has been modeled widely in evolution theory. However, experimental studies on this topic remain scarce, particularly regarding multiple infections by different parasite species. Here, we characterized the virulence and community dynamics of fungal pathogens on the invasive plant Ageratina adenophora to verify the predictions made by the model. We observed that A. adenophora was highly susceptible to diverse foliar pathogens with mixed vertical and horizontal transmission within leaf spots. The transmission mode mainly determined the pathogen community structure at the leaf spot level. Over time, the pathogen community within a leaf spot showed decreased Shannon diversity; moreover, the vertically transmitted pathogens exhibited decreased virulence to the host A. adenophora, but the horizontally transmitted pathogens exhibited increased virulence to the host. Our results demonstrate that the predictions of classical models for the virulence evolution of multiple infections are still valid in a complex realistic environment and highlight the impact of transmission mode on disease epidemics of foliar fungal pathogens. We also propose that seedborne fungi play an important role in structuring the foliar pathogen community from multiple infections within a leaf spot.

A growing number of examples indicate that many plant diseases are caused by multiple taxa of microbes. Therefore, how virulence evolves in the context of multiple infections by different species with both vertical and horizontal transmission modes represents an important area of pathogen ecology and evolution, but there is a lack of experimental study. Here, we employ a naturally occurring host-parasite system, the invasive plant Ageratina adenophora and its foliar pathogens, to verify that theoretical predictions of classical models for virulence evolution are still valid in a complex realistic environment, i.e., the transmission mode determines the dynamics of the virulence and pathogen community under multiple infections. Moreover, we propose that seedborne fungi are important in structuring the foliar pathogen community consisting of multiple infections within a leaf spot. Our findings provide valuable information for understanding how multiple infections affect the key components, i.e., the virulence evolution and pathogen community dynamics, of host-pathogen interactions in the field.

Host-Multi-Pathogen Warfare: Pathogen Interactions in Co-infected Plants

Studies of plant-pathogen interactions have historically focused on simple models of infection involving single host-single disease systems. However, plant infections often involve multiple species and/or genotypes and exhibit complexities not captured in single host-single disease systems. Here, we review recent insights into co-infection systems focusing on the dynamics of host-multi-pathogen interactions and the implications for host susceptibility/resistance. In co-infection systems, pathogen interactions include: (i) Competition, in which competing pathogens develop physical barriers or utilize toxins to exclude competitors from resource-dense niches; (ii) Cooperation, whereby pathogens beneficially interact, by providing mutual biochemical signals essential for pathogenesis, or through functional complementation via the exchange of resources necessary for survival; (iii) Coexistence, whereby pathogens can stably coexist through niche specialization. Furthermore, hosts are also able to, actively or passively, modulate niche competition through defense responses that target at least one pathogen. Typically, however, virulent pathogens subvert host defenses to facilitate infection, and responses elicited by one pathogen may be modified in the presence of another pathogen. Evidence also exists, albeit rare, of pathogens incorporating foreign genes that broaden niche adaptation and improve virulence. Throughout this review, we draw upon examples of co-infection systems from a range of pathogen types and identify outstanding questions for future innovation in disease control strategies.

VIRULENCE OF MIXED-CLONE AND SINGLE-CLONE INFECTIONS OF THE RODENT MALARIA PLASMODIUM CHABAUDI

Most evolutionary models treat virulence as an unavoidable consequence of microparasite replication and have predicted that in mixed-genotype infections, natural selection should favor higher levels of virulence than is optimal in genetically uniform infections. Increased virulence may evolve as a genetically fixed strategy, appropriate for the frequency of mixed infections in the population, or may occur as a conditional response to mixed infection, that is, a facultative strategy. Here we test whether facultative alterations in replication rates in the presence of competing genotypes occur and generate greater virulence. An important alternative, not currently incorporated in models of the evolution of virulence, is that host responses mounted against genetically diverse parasites may be more costly or less effective than those against genetically uniform parasites. If so, mixed clone infections will be more virulent for a given parasite replication rate. Two groups of mice were infected with one of two clones of Plasmodium chabaudi parasites, and three groups of mice were infected with 1:9, 5:5, or 9:1 mixtures of the same two clones. Virulence was assessed by monitoring mouse body weight and red blood cell density. Transmission stage densities were significantly higher in mixed- than in single-clone infections. Within treatment groups, transmission stage production increased with the virulence of the infection, a phenotypic correlation consistent with the genetic correlation assumed by much of the theoretical work on the evolution of virulence. Consistent with theoretical predictions of facultative alterations in virulence, we found that mice infected with both parasite clones lost more weight and had on average lower blood counts than those infected with single-clone infections. However, there was no consistent evidence of the mechanism invoked by evolutionary models that predict this effect. Replication rates and parasite densities were not always higher in ∗∗∗mixed-clone infections, and for a given replication rate or parasite density, mixed-clone infections were still more virulent. Instead, prolonged anemia and increased transmission may have occured because genetically diverse infections are less rapidly cleared by hosts. Differences in maximum weight loss occured even when there were comparable parasite densities in mixed- and single-clone infections. We suggest that mounting an immune response against more that one parasite genotype is more costly for hosts, which therefore suffer higher virulence.

THE INFLUENCE OF HOST DEMOGRAPHY ON THE EVOLUTION OF VIRULENCE OF A MICROSPORIDIAN GUT PARASITE

It is predicted that host exploitation should evolve to maximize parasite fitness and that virulence (= parasite-induced host mortality) evolves along with the rate of host exploitation. If the life expectancy of a parasite is short, it is expected to evolve a higher rate of host exploitation and therefore higher virulence because the penalty to the parasite for killing the host is reduced. We tested this hypothesis by keeping for 14 months the horizontally transmitted microsporidian parasite Glugoides intestinalis in mono-clonal host cultures (Daphnia magna) under conditions of high and low host background mortality. High host mortality, and thus parasite mortality, was achieved by replacing weekly 70-80% of all hosts in a culture with uninfected hosts from stock cultures (Replacement lines). In the low-mortality treatment no replacement took place. Contrary to our expectation, parasites from the Replacement lines evolved a lower within-host growth rate and virulence than parasites from the Nonreplacement lines. Across lines we found a strong positive correlation between within-host growth rate and virulence. We did further experiments to answer the question why our data did not support the predictions. Sporophorous vesicles (SVs, spore clusters) were smaller in doubly infected than in singly infected host-gut cells, indicating that competition within cells bears costs for the parasite. Due to our experimental protocol, the average life span of infections had been much higher in the Nonreplacement lines. Since the number of parasites inside a host increases with the time since infection, long-lasting infections led to high frequencies of multiply infected host-gut cells. Therefore, we speculated that within-cell competition was more severe in the Nonreplacement lines and may have led to selection for accelerated within-host growth. SVs in the Nonreplacement lines were indeed significantly larger. Our results point out that single-factor explanations for the evolution of virulence can lead to wrong predictions and that multiple infections are an important factor in virulence evolution.

Multiple-genotype infections and their complex effect on virulence

Multiple infections are common. Although in recent years our understanding of multiple infections has increased significantly, it has also become clear that a diversity of aspects has to be considered to understand the interplay between co-infecting parasite genotypes of the same species and its implications for virulence and epidemiology, resulting in high complexity. Here, we review different interaction mechanisms described for multiple infections ranging from competition to cooperation. We also list factors influencing the interaction between co-infecting parasite genotypes and their influence on virulence. Finally, we emphasise the importance of between-host effects and their evolution for understanding multiple infections and their implications.

The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests

Why is it that some parasites cause high levels of host damage (i.e. virulence) whereas others are relatively benign? There are now numerous reviews of virulence evolution in the literature but it is nevertheless still difficult to find a comprehensive treatment of the theory and data on the subject that is easily accessible to non-specialists. Here we attempt to do so by distilling the vast theoretical literature on the topic into a set of relatively few robust predictions. We then provide a comprehensive assessment of the available empirical literature that tests these predictions. Our results show that there have been some notable successes in integrating theory and data but also that theory and empiricism in this field do not ‘speak’ to each other very well. We offer a few suggestions for how the connection between the two might be improved.

Genetic diversity, virulence and fitness evolution in an obligate fungal parasite of bees

Within-host competition is predicted to drive the evolution of virulence in parasites, but the precise outcomes of such interactions are often unpredictable due to many factors including the biology of the host and the parasite, stochastic events and co-evolutionary interactions. Here, we use a serial passage experiment (SPE) with three strains of a heterothallic fungal parasite (Ascosphaera apis) of the Honey bee (Apis mellifera) to assess how evolving under increasing competitive pressure affects parasite virulence and fitness evolution. The results show an increase in virulence after successive generations of selection and consequently faster production of spores. This faster sporulation, however, did not translate into more spores being produced during this longer window of sporulation; rather, it appeared to induce a loss of fitness in terms of total spore production. There was no evidence to suggest that a greater diversity of competing strains was a driver of this increased virulence and subsequent fitness cost, but rather that strain-specific competitive interactions influenced the evolutionary outcomes of mixed infections. It is possible that the parasite may have evolved to avoid competition with multiple strains because of its heterothallic mode of reproduction, which highlights the importance of understanding parasite biology when predicting disease dynamics.

Competition, virulence, host body mass and the diversification of macro-parasites

Adaptive speciation has been much debated in recent years, with a strong emphasis on how competition can lead to the diversification of ecological and sexual traits. Surprisingly, little attention has been paid to this evolutionary process to explain intrahost diversification of parasites. We expanded the theory of competitive speciation to look at the effect of key features of the parasite lifestyle, namely fragmentation, aggregation and virulence, on the conditions and rate of sympatric speciation under the standard 'pleiotropic scenario'. The conditions for competitive speciation were found similar to those for non-parasite species, but not the rate of diversification. Adaptive evolution proceeds faster in highly fragmented parasite populations and for weakly aggregated and virulent parasites. Combining these theoretical results with standard empirical allometric relationships, we showed that parasite diversification can be faster in host species of intermediate body mass. The increase in parasite load with body mass, indeed, fuels evolution by increasing mutants production, but because of the deleterious effect of virulence, it simultaneously weakens selection for resource specialization. Those two antagonistic effects lead to optimal parasite burden and host body mass for diversification. Data on the diversity of fishes' gills parasites were found consistent with the existence of such optimum.

Molecular evolutionary signatures reveal the role of host ecological dynamics in viral disease emergence and spread

RNA viruses account for numerous emerging and perennial infectious diseases, and are characterized by rapid rates of molecular evolution. The ecological dynamics of most emerging RNA viruses are still poorly understood and difficult to ascertain. The availability of genome sequence data for many RNA viruses, in principle, could be used to infer ecological dynamics if changes in population numbers produced a lasting signature within the pattern of genome evolution. As a result, the rapidly emerging phylogeographic structure of a pathogen, shaped by the rise and fall in the number of infections and their spatial distribution, could be used as a surrogate for direct ecological assessments. Based on rabies virus as our example, we use a model combining ecological and evolutionary processes to test whether variation in the rate of host movement results in predictive diagnostic patterns of pathogen genetic structure. We identify several linearizable relationships between host dispersal rate and measures of phylogenetic structure suggesting genetic information can be used to directly infer ecological process. We also find phylogenetic structure may be more revealing than demography for certain ecological processes. Our approach extends the reach of current analytic frameworks for infectious disease dynamics by linking phylogeography back to underlying ecological processes.

Multiple infections and the evolution of virulence

Infections that consist of multiple parasite strains or species are common in the wild and are a major public health concern. Theory suggests that these infections have a key influence on the evolution of infectious diseases and, more specifically, on virulence evolution. However, we still lack an overall vision of the empirical support for these predictions. We argue that within-host interactions between parasites largely determine how virulence evolves and that experimental data support model predictions. Then, we explore the main limitation of the experimental study of such 'mixed infections', which is that it draws conclusions on evolutionary outcomes from studies conducted at the individual level. We also discuss differences between coinfections caused by different strains of the same species or by different species. Overall, we argue that it is possible to make sense out of the complexity inherent to multiple infections and that experimental evolution settings may provide the best opportunity to further our understanding of virulence evolution.

SNP design from 454 sequencing of Podosphaera plantaginis transcriptome reveals a genetically diverse pathogen metapopulation with high levels of mixed-genotype infection

Background

Molecular tools may greatly improve our understanding of pathogen evolution and epidemiology but technical constraints have hindered the development of genetic resources for parasites compared to free-living organisms. This study aims at developing molecular tools for Podosphaera plantaginis, an obligate fungal pathogen of Plantago lanceolata. This interaction has been intensively studied in the Åland archipelago of Finland with epidemiological data collected from over 4,000 host populations annually since year 2001.

Principal Findings

A cDNA library of a pooled sample of fungal conidia was sequenced on the 454 GS-FLX platform. Over 549,411 reads were obtained and annotated into 45,245 contigs. Annotation data was acquired for 65.2% of the assembled sequences. The transcriptome assembly was screened for SNP loci, as well as for functionally important genes (mating-type genes and potential effector proteins). A genotyping assay of 27 SNP loci was designed and tested on 380 infected leaf samples from 80 populations within the Åland archipelago. With this panel we identified 85 multilocus genotypes (MLG) with uneven frequencies across the pathogen metapopulation. Approximately half of the sampled populations contain polymorphism. Our genotyping protocol revealed mixed-genotype infection within a single host leaf to be common. Mixed infection has been proposed as one of the main drivers of pathogen evolution, and hence may be an important process in this pathosystem.

Significance

The developed SNP panel offers exciting research perspectives for future studies in this well-characterized pathosystem. Also, the transcriptome provides an invaluable novel genomic resource for powdery mildews, which cause significant yield losses on commercially important crops annually. Furthermore, the features that render genetic studies in this system a challenge are shared with the majority of obligate parasitic species, and hence our results provide methodological insights from SNP calling to field sampling protocols for a wide range of biological systems.

Within-host parasite cooperation and the evolution of virulence

Infections by multiple genotypes are common in nature and are known to select for higher levels of virulence for some parasites. When parasites produce public goods (PGs) within the host, such co-infections have been predicted to select for lower levels of virulence. However, this prediction is based on simplifying assumptions regarding epidemiological feedbacks on the multiplicity of infections (MOI). Here, we analyse the case of parasites producing a PG (for example, siderophore-producing bacteria) using a nested model that ties together within-host and epidemiological processes. We find that the prediction that co-infection should select for less virulent strains for PG-producing parasites is only valid if both parasite transmission and virulence are linear functions of parasite density. If there is a trade-off relationship such that virulence increases more rapidly than transmission, or if virulence also depends on the total amount of PGs produced, then more complex relationships between virulence and the MOI are predicted. Our results reveal that explicitly taking into account the distribution of parasite strains among hosts could help better understand the selective pressures faced by parasites at the population level.

Virulence evolution in response to anti-infection resistance: toxic food plants can select for virulent parasites of monarch butterflies

Host resistance to parasites can come in two main forms: hosts may either reduce the probability of parasite infection (anti-infection resistance) or reduce parasite growth after infection has occurred (anti-growth resistance). Both resistance mechanisms are often imperfect, meaning that they do not fully prevent or clear infections. Theoretical work has suggested that imperfect anti-growth resistance can select for higher parasite virulence by favouring faster-growing and more virulent parasites that overcome this resistance. In contrast, imperfect anti-infection resistance is thought not to select for increased parasite virulence, because it is assumed that it reduces the number of hosts that become infected, but not the fitness of parasites in successfully infected hosts. Here, we develop a theoretical model to show that anti-infection resistance can in fact select for higher virulence when such resistance reduces the effective parasite dose that enters a host. Our model is based on a monarch butterfly-parasite system in which larval food plants confer resistance to the monarch host. We carried out an experiment and showed that this environmental resistance is most likely a form of anti-infection resistance, through which toxic food plants reduce the effective dose of parasites that initiates an infection. We used these results to build a mathematical model to investigate the evolutionary consequences of food plant-induced resistance. Our model shows that when the effective infectious dose is reduced, parasites can compensate by evolving a higher per-parasite growth rate, and consequently a higher intrinsic virulence. Our results are relevant to many insect host-parasite systems, in which larval food plants often confer imperfect anti-infection resistance. Our results also suggest that - for parasites where the infectious dose affects the within-host dynamics - vaccines that reduce the effective infectious dose can select for increased parasite virulence.

Outside opportunities and costs incurred by others

Descriptions of interactions between ants and their 'guests' serve to illustrate the thesis that Ewald's theory of the 'evolution of virulence' not only applies to interactions between micro-organisms causing infectious diseases and their hosts, but also to interactions between individuals belonging to differing species. For instance, the prediction is put forward and discussed that guests of army ants are, relative to guests of other species of ants, more often parasitic. A key variable in Ewald's theory is 'transmissibility'. It shows some resemblance to similar variables used in micro-economic theory and in Emerson's sociological Power-Dependence Relations theory. In this article, this variable is called 'outside opportunities'. In an A-B relation, an outside opportunity for A is anything which constitutes an alternative to what B can provide. It is concluded that in A-B interactions, the more outside opportunities are available to A, the more costs are incurred by B. Differences and similarities between this idea and Game Theory are discussed.

Protective correlates against HIVs may have evolved in human populations in the areas of historic occurrence of primate-to-man transmissions of SIVs ancestral to HIVs: studies in these populations may provide crucial insights for treatment and prevention of HIV infection

Recent findings suggest that Human Immunodeficiency Viruses, HIV-1 and 2, might have been transmitted to humans from particular primate species. It is thought that some Simian Immunodeficiency Viruses (SIVs), from which HIVs presumably originated, existed in their primate hosts for ages. Behavioral characteristics increasing the probability of contact between these primates and humans (such as keeping monkeys for pets, hunting monkeys for food, improper handling of the monkey meat, etc.) documented in some African countries could have facilitated cross-species transmissions (CSTs) of HIVs. As it has been shown, multiple CSTs took place for both HIVs (1 and 2) and then, in a globalizing world, these local events led to the pandemic. Here, it is brought forward that in the regions of epizooty of SIVs closely related to HIVs, some human populations might have had exposure history to these viruses dating back hundreds years. Lacking the important framework for further spread provided by nowadays globalization, these CSTs could have led to isolated local HIV outbreaks limited to particular tribes or groups. The infections could have extinguished some populations while on the other hand provided evolutionary pressure to select for mechanisms protective for HIV infection and/or disease. Thus, here it is hypothesized that in the areas of the habitat of primates infected with SIVs, from which HIVs are thought to be originated, there could be historically exposed populations which might possess biological correlates of protection from HIVs. Current knowledge on the distribution of primates hosting HIV-related SIVs suggests that epidemiological, primatological, anthropological and molecular biological studies in the areas of Cameroon, Gabon, both Congos and Equatorial Guinea (for HIV-1) and Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Guinea, Ivory Cost, Sierra Leone and Liberia (for HIV-2) could lead to the discoveries of correlates of protection against HIVs. It is also hypothesized that virology studies in the same areas might reveal less virulent and/or infective viruses which could provide insights in the HIV pathogenesis and vaccinology.

Evolutionary nursing: the case of infectious diseases

AIM

The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of evolution on infectious diseases nursing, and propose a model that may help to increase understanding of how hosts and microorganisms co-exist and how humans can alter the delicate balance between them.

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE

Infectious diseases occur as the result of interactions between hosts and microorganisms. There is an increasing acceptance that the evolution of host and parasite is important in the development of infectious diseases. However, such views have made little impact in nursing, and the use of evolutionary interventions remains controversial.

METHOD

The Medline database was searched from 1966 to present using the terms pathogen$, virulen$, evolution, bacteria, and all combinations of these. Additionally reference lists of text books and papers were hand searched for relevant papers. Papers were selected from a variety of disciplines, including infectious diseases, microbiology, evolutionary biology, and ecology. Recurrent themes from these papers were identified and a model of evolutionary nursing constructed.

RESULTS

Microorganisms are plentiful, ubiquitous, and rapidly evolving by comparison with humans and other animals. As a result of this, attempts to 'outwit' them have been, and are, doomed to failure. However, through careful management of public and personal health, a balance encouraging co-existence may be possible. A number of specific interventions is proposed.

CONCLUSIONS

There are a number of key interventions that may reduce the virulence of microorganisms. With an increasing world population, antibiotic resistance and international travel, such an approach may be one way of reducing the morbidity associated with infectious diseases.

Bacteriocins, spite and virulence

There has been much interest in using social evolution theory to predict the damage to a host from parasite infection, termed parasite virulence. Most of this work has focused on how high kinship between the parasites infecting a host can select for more prudent exploitation of the host, leading to a negative relationship between virulence and parasite kinship. However, it has also been shown that if parasites can cooperate to overcome the host, then high parasite kinship within hosts can select for greater cooperation and higher growth rates, hence leading to a positive relationship between virulence and parasite kinship. We examine the impact of a spiteful behaviour, chemical (bacteriocin) warfare between microbes, on the evolution of virulence, and find a new relationship: virulence is maximized when the frequency of kin among parasites' social partners is low or high, and is minimized at intermediate values. This emphasizes how biological details can fundamentally alter the qualitative nature of theoretical predictions made by models of parasite virulence.

A general theory for the evolutionary dynamics of virulence

Most theory on the evolution of virulence is based on a game-theoretic approach. One potential shortcoming of this approach is that it does not allow the prediction of the evolutionary dynamics of virulence. Such dynamics are of interest for several reasons: for experimental tests of theory, for the development of useful virulence management protocols, and for understanding virulence evolution in situations where the epidemiological dynamics never reach equilibrium and/or when evolutionary change occurs on a timescale comparable to that of the epidemiological dynamics. Here we present a general theory similar to that of quantitative genetics in evolutionary biology that allows for the easy construction of models that include both within-host mutation as well as superinfection and that is capable of predicting both the short- and long-term evolution of virulence. We illustrate the generality and intuitive appeal of the theory through a series of examples showing how it can lead to transparent interpretations of the selective forces governing virulence evolution. It also leads to novel predictions that are not possible using the game-theoretic approach. The general theory can be used to model the evolution of other pathogen traits as well.

The evolutionary economics of immunity

How much of its resources should an individual invest in a costly immune system? In this article, we apply an evolutionarily stable strategy analysis to an epidemic model to answer this question. On the one hand, an investment in immune function confers protection to infectious agents by reducing host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, or the length of the infectious period. On the other hand, an immune system is costly since it absorbs resources that otherwise might be invested in increasing the host's fertility or longevity. In addition, an active immune system may be able to clear pathogens efficiently but at the same time may result in immunopathology. By means of a reproductive value approach, we show how to compare the costs and benefits of an immune system systematically and how to derive the evolutionarily stable level of immune function. We then apply these methods to various plausible scenarios. The analysis reveals that the relationship between the life span of an organism and the optimal level of investment in immune function is less straightforward than one might expect. First, the prevalence of infection is reduced to the lowest possible level only under special circumstances. Second, members of a long-lived species do not necessarily have to invest more in immune function than those of a short-lived species. In fact, the opposite may be true. Third, the outcome of evolution can be contingent on the initial conditions. Depending on its initial investment strategy, a population may evolve to a state where very much or almost nothing is invested in a costly immune system.

Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible?

Progress in understanding the evolution of infectious diseases has inspired proposals to manage the evolution of pathogen (including parasite) virulence. A common view is that social interventions that lower pathogen transmission will indirectly select lower virulence because of a trade-off between transmission and virulence. Here, we argue that there is little theoretical justification and no empirical evidence for this plan. Although a trade-off model might apply to some pathogens, the mechanism appears too weak for rapid selection of substantial changes in virulence. Direct selection against virulence itself might be a more rewarding approach to managing the evolution of virulence.

The evolution of virulence in vector-borne and directly transmitted parasites

Ewald (1994) has suggested that vector-borne parasites are expected to evolve a higher level of host exploitation than directly transmitted parasites, and this should thereby result in them being more virulent. Indeed, some data do conform to this general pattern. Nevertheless, his hypothesis has generated some debate about the extent to which it is valid. I explore this issue quantitatively within the framework of mathematical epidemiology. In particular, I present a dynamic optimization model for the evolution of parasite replication strategies that explicitly explores the validity of this hypothesis. A few different model assumptions are explored and it is found that Ewald's hypothesis has only qualified support as a general explanation for why vector-borne parasites are more virulent than those that are directly transmitted. I conclude by suggesting that an alternative explanation might lie in differences in inoculum size between these two types of transmission.

Parasite transmission modes and the evolution of virulence

A mathematical model is presented that explores the relationship between transmission patterns and the evolution of virulence for horizontally transmitted parasites when only a single parasite strain can infect each host. The model is constructed by decomposing parasite transmission into two processes, the rate of contact between hosts and the probability of transmission per contact. These transmission rate components, as well as the total parasite mortality rate, are allowed to vary over the course of an infection. A general evolutionarily stable condition is presented that partitions the effects of virulence on parasite fitness into three components: fecundity benefits, mortality costs, and morbidity costs. This extension of previous theory allows us to explore the evolutionary consequences of a variety of transmission patterns. I then focus attention on a special case in which the parasite density remains approximately constant during an infection, and I demonstrate two important ways in which transmission modes can affect virulence evolution: by imposing different morbidity costs on the parasite and by altering the scheduling of parasite reproduction during an infection. Both are illustrated with examples, including one that examines the hypothesis that vector-borne parasites should be more virulent than non-vector-borne parasites (Ewald 1994). The validity of this hypothesis depends upon the way in which these two effects interact, and it need not hold in general.

Host life history and the evolution of parasite virulence

We present a general epidemiological model of host-parasite interactions that includes various forms of superinfection. We use this model to study the effects of different host life-history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence. In particular, we analyze the effects of natural host death rate on the evolutionarily stable parasite virulence. We show that, contrary to classical predictions, an increase in the natural host death rate may select for lower parasite virulence if some form of superinfection occurs. This result is in agreement with the experimental results and the verbal argument presented by Ebert and Mangin (1997). This experiment is discussed in the light of the present model. We also point out the importance of superinfections for the effect of nonspecific immunity on the evolution of virulence. In a broader perspective, this model demonstrates that the occurrence of multiple infections may qualitatively alter classical predictions concerning the effects of various host life-history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence.

Sexually transmitted diseases in polygynous mating systems: prevalence and impact on reproductive success

Studies of disease in relation to animal mating systems have focused on sexual selection and the evolution of sexual reproduction. Relatively little work has examined other aspects of ecological and evolutionary relationships between host social and sexual behaviour, and dynamics and prevalence of infectious diseases; this is particularly evident with respect to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here, we use a simulation approach to investigate rates of STD spread in host mating systems ranging from permanent monogamy to serial polygyny or polyandry and complete promiscuity. The model assumes that one sex (female) is differentially attracted to the other, such that groups of varying size are formed within which mating and disease transmission occur. The results show that equilibrium disease levels are generally higher in females than males and are a function of variance in male mating success and the likelihood of a female switching groups between mating seasons. Moreover, initial rates of disease spread (determining whether an STD establishes in a population) depend on patterns of host movement between groups, variance in male mating success and host life history (e.g. mortality rates). Male reproductive success can be reduced substantially by a sterilizing STD and this reduction is greater in males that are more 'attractive' to females. In contrast, females that associate with more attractive males have lower absolute fitness than females associating with less attractive males. Thus, the potential for STDs to act as a constraint on directional selection processes leading to polygyny (or polyandry) is likely to depend on the details of mate choice and group dynamics.

Perspective: human contact patterns and the spread of airborne infectious diseases

Networks of social contacts channel the transmission of airborne infections. Emerging insights from fields of science as diverse as mathematics, population biology and the social sciences are beginning to reveal how the contact pattern of the hosts determines the spread and evolution of airborne infectious agents.