Being ready for the next influenza pandemic?

Spread of avian influenza among poultry specialists in England during winter 2022/23: National poultry housing order and environmental drivers

Purpose

To examine the impact of the national poultry housing order the UK government introduced on 7 November 2022 on the spreading of the avian influenza virus among poultry premises.

Methods

A longitudinal design with 15 weeks of infected poultry specialist incidence rates per 100 poultry specialists during the 2022/23 winter for 8 English regions. A multilevel regression model was used to analyse repeated measurements. Time was level-1 unit and regions level-2 unit resulting in 120 observations. Random intercept models included interactions between housing order and weekly infected wild birds, poultry density, or weekly average temperatures divided into terciles. In models where these variables were not included as an interaction term they were introduced as confounders.

Results

After the introduction of the housing order, it took 3 weeks for a considerable reduction in poultry specialist incidence rates. Reduction in incidence rates was strongest in regions with highest poultry density, from 1.27 (95%CI 0.99 to 1.56) to 0.30 (95%CI 0.09 to 0.52). Considerable reductions were also seen in regions with most detected infected wild birds.

Conclusion

The housing order was successful in reducing infected poultry specialist incidence rates three weeks after its introduction. Strongest impact in regions with highest poultry density.

Characterizing the domestic-wild bird interface through camera traps in an area at risk for avian influenza introduction in Northern Italy

Direct or indirect interactions between sympatric wildlife and poultry can lead to interspecies disease transmission. Particularly, avian influenza (AI) is a viral epidemic disease for which the poultry-wild bird interface shapes the risks of new viral introductions into poultry holdings. Given this background, the study hereby presented aimed to identify wild bird species in poultry house surroundings and characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of these visits. Eight camera traps were deployed for a year (January to December 2021) in 3 commercial chicken layer farms, including free-range and barn-type setups, located in a densely populated poultry area in Northern Italy at high risk for AI introduction via wild birds. Camera traps' positions were chosen based on wildlife signs identified during preliminary visits to the establishments studied. Various methods, including time series analysis, correspondence analysis, and generalized linear models, were employed to analyze the daily wild bird visits. A total of 1,958 camera trap days yielded 5,978 videos of wild birds from 27 different species and 16 taxonomic families. The animals were predominantly engaged in foraging activities nearby poultry houses. Eurasian magpies (Pica pica), ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus), and Eurasian collared doves (Streptopelia decaocto) were the most frequent visitors. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), an AI reservoir species, were observed only in a farm located next to a fishing sport lake. Time series analysis indicated that wild bird visits increased during spring and winter. Farm and camera trap location also influenced visit frequencies. Overall, the results highlighted specific species that could be prioritized for future AI epidemiological surveys. However, further research is required to assess their susceptibility and infectivity to currently circulating AI viruses, essential for identifying novel bridge hosts.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus Infection in Birds and Mammals

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are highly contagious respiratory viruses of birds, leading to significant morbidity and mortality globally and causing substantial economic losses to the poultry industry and agriculture. Since their first isolation in 2013-2014, the Asian-origin H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) of clade 2.3.4.4b have undergone unprecedented evolution and reassortment of internal gene segments. In just a few years, it supplanted other AIV clades, and now it is widespread in the wild migratory waterfowl, spreading to Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Wild waterfowl, the natural reservoir of LPAIVs and generally more resistant to the disease, also manifested high morbidity and mortality with HPAIV clade 2.3.4.4b. This clade also caused overt clinical signs and mass mortality in a variety of avian and mammalian species never reported before, such as raptors, seabirds, sealions, foxes, and others. Most notably, the recent outbreaks in dairy cattle were associated with the emergence of a few critical mutations related to mammalian adaptation, raising concerns about the possibility of jumping species and acquisition of sustained human-to-human transmission. The main clinical signs and anatomopathological findings associated with clade 2.3.4.4b virus infection in birds and non-human mammals are hereby summarized.

Pre-COVID-19 hospital quality and hospital response to COVID-19: examining associations between risk-adjusted mortality for patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and pre-COVID-19 hospital quality

OBJECTIVES

The extent to which care quality influenced outcomes for patients hospitalised with COVID-19 is unknown. Our objective was to determine if prepandemic hospital quality is associated with mortality among Medicare patients hospitalised with COVID-19.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective observational study. We calculated hospital-level risk-standardised in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates (risk-standardised mortality rates, RSMRs) for patients hospitalised with COVID-19, and correlation coefficients between RSMRs and pre-COVID-19 hospital quality, overall and stratified by hospital characteristics.

SETTING

Short-term acute care hospitals and critical access hospitals in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Hospitalised Medicare beneficiaries (Fee-For-Service and Medicare Advantage) age 65 and older hospitalised with COVID-19, discharged between 1 April 2020 and 30 September 2021.

INTERVENTION/EXPOSURE

Pre-COVID-19 hospital quality.

OUTCOMES

Risk-standardised COVID-19 in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates (RSMRs).

RESULTS

In-hospital (n=4256) RSMRs for Medicare patients hospitalised with COVID-19 (April 2020-September 2021) ranged from 4.5% to 59.9% (median 18.2%; IQR 14.7%-23.7%); 30-day RSMRs ranged from 12.9% to 56.2% (IQR 24.6%-30.6%). COVID-19 RSMRs were negatively correlated with star rating summary scores (in-hospital correlation coefficient -0.41, p<0.0001; 30 days -0.38, p<0.0001). Correlations with in-hospital RSMRs were strongest for patient experience (-0.39, p<0.0001) and timely and effective care (-0.30, p<0.0001) group scores; 30-day RSMRs were strongest for patient experience (-0.34, p<0.0001) and mortality (-0.33, p<0.0001) groups. Patients admitted to 1-star hospitals had higher odds of mortality (in-hospital OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.83 to 1.91; 30-day OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48) compared with 5-star hospitals. If all hospitals performed like an average 5-star hospital, we estimate 38 000 fewer COVID-19-related deaths would have occurred between April 2020 and September 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals with better prepandemic quality may have care structures and processes that allowed for better care delivery and outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the relationship between pre-COVID-19 hospital quality and COVID-19 outcomes will allow policy-makers and hospitals better prepare for future public health emergencies.

High number of HPAI H5 virus infections and antibodies in wild carnivores in the Netherlands, 2020-2022

In October 2020, a new lineage of a clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI virus of the H5 subtype emerged in Europe, resulting in the largest global outbreak of HPAI to date, with unprecedented mortality in wild birds and poultry. The virus appears to have become enzootic in birds, continuously yielding novel HPAI virus variants. The recently increased abundance of infected birds worldwide increases the probability of bird-mammal contact, particularly in wild carnivores. Here, we performed molecular and serological screening of over 500 dead wild carnivores and sequencing of RNA positive materials. We show virological evidence for HPAI H5 virus infection in 0.8%, 1.4%, and 9.9% of animals tested in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, with the highest proportion of positives in foxes, polecats and stone martens. We obtained near full genomes of 7 viruses and detected PB2 amino acid substitutions known to play a role in mammalian adaptation in three sequences. Infections were also found in without neurological signs or mortality. Serological evidence for infection was detected in 20% of the study population. These findings suggests that a high proportion of wild carnivores is infected but undetected in current surveillance programmes. We recommend increased surveillance in susceptible mammals, irrespective of neurological signs or encephalitis.

The Use of Wearable Devices to Measure Sedentary Behavior during COVID-19: Systematic Review and Future Recommendations

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in approximately 7 million deaths and impacted 767 million individuals globally, primarily through infections. Acknowledging the impactful influence of sedentary behaviors, particularly exacerbated by COVID-19 restrictions, a substantial body of research has emerged, utilizing wearable sensor technologies to assess these behaviors. This comprehensive review aims to establish a framework encompassing recent studies concerning wearable sensor applications to measure sedentary behavior parameters during the COVID-19 pandemic, spanning December 2019 to December 2022. After examining 582 articles, 7 were selected for inclusion. While most studies displayed effective reporting standards and adept use of wearable device data for their specific research aims, our inquiry revealed deficiencies in apparatus accuracy documentation and study methodology harmonization. Despite methodological variations, diverse metrics, and the absence of thorough device accuracy assessments, integrating wearables within the pandemic context offers a promising avenue for objective measurements and strategies against sedentary behaviors.

The neuropathogenesis of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5Nx viruses in mammalian species including humans

Circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx viruses of the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage in birds regularly causes infections of mammals, including humans. In many mammalian species, infections are associated with severe neurological disease, a unique feature of HPAI H5Nx viruses compared with other influenza A viruses. Here, we provide an overview of the neuropathogenesis of HPAI H5Nx virus infection in mammals, centered on three aspects: neuroinvasion, neurotropism, and neurovirulence. We focus on in vitro studies, as well as studies on naturally or experimentally infected mammals. Additionally, we discuss the contribution of viral factors to the neuropathogenesis of HPAI H5Nx virus infections and the efficacy of intervention strategies to prevent neuroinvasion or the development of neurological disease.

Backyard zoonoses: The roles of companion animals and peri-domestic wildlife

The spillover of human infectious diseases from animal reservoirs is now well appreciated. However, societal and climate-related changes are affecting the dynamics of such interfaces. In addition to the disruption of traditional wildlife habitats, in part because of climate change and human demographics and behavior, there is an increasing zoonotic disease risk from companion animals. This includes such factors as the awareness of animals kept as domestic pets and increasing populations of free-ranging animals in peri-domestic environments. This review presents background and commentary focusing on companion and peri-domestic animals as disease risk for humans, taking into account the human-animal interface and population dynamics between the animals themselves.

Association between gut microbiota and influenza: a bidirectional two-sample mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Previous observational studies have indicated a correlation between the gut microbiota and influenza; however, the exact nature of the bidirectional causal connection remains uncertain.

METHOD

A two-way, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted to evaluate the possible causal connection between the gut microbiota and the two outcomes of influenza (pneumonia without influenza and influenza pneumonia). The statistical analysis of gut microbiota is derived from the information of the most extensive meta-analysis (GWAS) conducted by the MiBioGen Alliance, encompassing a sample size of 18,340.The summary statistical data for influenza (not pneumonia, n = 291,090) and influenza pneumonia (n = 342,499) are from GWAS data published by FinnGen consortium R8.Estimate and summarize Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using Inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR Egger, and Weighted median (WM) in bidirectional MR analysis. To assess the heterogeneity, horizontal pleiotropy, and stability of SNPs, we employed Cochran's Q test, MR Egger intercept test, and sensitivity analysis.

RESULT

The IVW analysis indicated that there was a significant association between influenza infection and five bacterial taxa. Additionally, the abundance changes of seven gut microbiota were found to be causally related to influenza infection. In addition, seven bacterial taxa showed a significant association with the occurrence of influenza pneumonia. The findings from the WM analysis largely support the outcomes of IVW, however, the results of MR egger analysis do not align with IVW. Furthermore, there is no proof to substantiate the cause-and-effect relationship between influenza pneumonia and the composition of gut microbiota.

CONCLUSION

This analysis demonstrates a possible bidirectional causal connection between the prevalence of particular gut microbiota and the occurrence of influenza infection. The presence of certain gut microbiota may potentially contribute to the development of pneumonia caused by influenza. Additional investigation into the interaction between particular bacterial communities and influenza can enhance efforts in preventing, monitoring, and treating influenza.

Disease ecology: When a GPS logger tells you more than a blood sample

Long-term movement tracking revealed sublethal effects of avian influenza infection in vultures, adding an important element to our understanding of the subtleties of the feedback loop between host movement and pathogen transmission.

Global review of the H5N8 avian influenza virus subtype

Orthomyxoviruses are negative-sense, RNA viruses with segmented genomes that are highly unstable due to reassortment. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N8 emerged in wild birds in China. Since its emergence, it has posed a significant threat to poultry and human health. Poultry meat is considered an inexpensive source of protein, but due to outbreaks of HPAI H5N8 from migratory birds in commercial flocks, the poultry meat industry has been facing severe financial crises. This review focuses on occasional epidemics that have damaged food security and poultry production across Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa, and America. HPAI H5N8 viral sequences have been retrieved from GISAID and analyzed. Virulent HPAI H5N8 belongs to clade 2.3.4.4b, Gs/GD lineage, and has been a threat to the poultry industry and the public in several countries since its first introduction. Continent-wide outbreaks have revealed that this virus is spreading globally. Thus, continuous sero- and viro-surveillance both in commercial and wild birds, and strict biosecurity reduces the risk of the HPAI virus appearing. Furthermore, homologous vaccination practices in commercial poultry need to be introduced to overcome the introduction of emergent strains. This review clearly indicates that HPAI H5N8 is a continuous threat to poultry and people and that further regional epidemiological studies are needed.