Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: an economic modelling study in six cities

St. Louis Enhancing Engagement and Retention in HIV/AIDS Care (STEER): a participatory intersectional needs assessment for intervention and implementation planning

Background Missouri is one of seven priority states identified by the Ending the HIV Epidemic Initiative, and St. Louis contains almost half of the people living with HIV (PLWH) in Missouri. As St. Louis has a marked history of structural racism and economic inequities, we utilized the Intersectionality Based Policy Analysis (IBPA) framework to guide a participatory needs assessment for planning and program development. Methods The planning team included researchers, the lead implementer from our community partner, and two community representatives, and had biweekly 60-90 minute meetings for 18 months. The planning team discussed and approved all research materials, reviewed and interpreted results, and made decisions about outreach, recruitment, conduct of the needs assessment and development of the planned intervention. The needs assessment integrated information from existing data, (1) interviews with (a) PLWH (n=12), (b) community leaders (n=5), (c) clinical leaders (n=4), and (d) community health workers (CHWs) (n=3) and (e) CHW supervisors (n=3) who participated in a Boston University-led demonstration project on CHWs in the context of HIV and (2) focus groups (2 FG, 12 participants) with front line health workers such as peer specialists, health coaches and outreach workers. A rapid qualitative analysis approach was used for all interviews and focus groups. Results The IBPA was used to guide team discussions of team values, definition and framing of the problem, questions and topics in the key informant interviews, and implementation strategies. Applying the IBPA framework contributed to a focus on intersectional drivers of inequities in HIV services. The effective management of HIV faces significant challenges from high provider turnover, insufficient integration of CHWs into care teams, and organizational limitations in tailoring treatment plans. Increasing use of CHWs for HIV treatment and prevention also faces challenges. People living with HIV (PLWH) encounter multiple barriers such as stigma, lack of social support, co-morbidities, medication side effects and difficulties in meeting basic needs. Conclusions Addressing intersectional drivers of health inequities may require multi-level, structural approaches. We see the IBPA as a valuable tool for participatory planning while integrating community engagement principles in program and implementation design for improving HIV outcomes.

PrEP and Behavioral Health Treatment Referral Among HIV Test Counselors in Miami-Dade County: A Rapid Qualitative Study Using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research

HIV test counselors are well positioned to refer individuals to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and behavioral health treatments. HIV test counselors in Miami-Dade County (N = 20), a priority jurisdiction for Ending the HIV Epidemic, completed interviews to assess determinants of PrEP and behavioral health treatment referrals. To identify determinants, we used a rapid deductive qualitative analysis approach and the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Identified determinants sometimes served as facilitators (e.g., relative priority, leadership importance) and sometimes as barriers (e.g., lack of access to knowledge and information, available resources for referrals) to making referrals. We also observed differences in determinants between PrEP and behavioral health referrals. For example, complexity (perceived difficulty of the referral) was a barrier to behavioral health more often than PrEP referral. Our findings suggest that determinants across many CFIR domains affect referral implementation, and the corresponding need for multiple implementation strategies to improve implementation of PrEP and behavioral health referrals in the context of HIV testing.

AIDSVu Cities' Progress Toward HIV Care Continuum Goals: Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Public health surveillance data are critical to understanding the current state of the HIV and AIDS epidemics. Surveillance data provide significant insight into patterns within and progress toward achieving targets for each of the steps in the HIV care continuum. Such targets include those outlined in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) goals. If these data are disseminated, they can be used to prioritize certain steps in the continuum, geographic locations, and groups of people.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop and report indicators of progress toward the NHAS goals for US cities and to characterize progress toward those goals with categorical metrics.

METHODS

Health departments used standardized SAS code to calculate care continuum indicators from their HIV surveillance data to ensure comparability across jurisdictions. We report 2018 descriptive statistics for continuum steps (timely diagnosis, linkage to medical care, receipt of medical care, and HIV viral load suppression) for 36 US cities and their progress toward 2020 NHAS goals as of 2018. Indicators are reported categorically as met or surpassed the goal, within 25% of attaining the goal, or further than 25% from achieving the goal.

RESULTS

Cities were closest to meeting NHAS goals for timely diagnosis compared to the goals for linkage to care, receipt of care, and viral load suppression, with all cities (n=36, 100%) within 25% of meeting the goal for timely diagnosis. Only 8% (n=3) of cities were >25% from achieving the goal for receipt of care, but 69% (n=25) of cities were >25% from achieving the goal for viral suppression.

CONCLUSIONS

Display of progress with graphical indicators enables communication of progress to stakeholders. AIDSVu analyses of HIV surveillance data facilitate cities' ability to benchmark their progress against that of other cities with similar characteristics. By identifying peer cities (eg, cities with analogous populations or similar NHAS goal concerns), the public display of indicators can promote dialogue between cities with comparable challenges and opportunities.

Estimating the epidemiological impact of reaching the objectives of the Florida integrated HIV prevention and care plan in Miami-Dade County

Background

The US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce national HIV incidence 90% by 2030 and to address the disproportionate burden of HIV among different racial/ethnic populations. Florida's state-wide 2022-2026 Integrated HIV Prevention and Care Plan outlines objectives for reaching EHE goals. In Miami-Dade County, we determined the epidemiological impact of achieving the integrated plan's objectives individually and jointly.

Methods

We adapted an HIV transmission model calibrated to Miami-Dade County adjusting access to HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment to model the effects of each objective between 2022 and 2030. We compared two service scale-up approaches: (a) scale-up proportionally to existing racial/ethnic group access levels, and (b) scale-up according to new diagnoses across racial/ethnic groups (equity-oriented). We estimated reductions in new HIV infections by each objective and approach, compared to the EHE's incidence reduction target.

Findings

The single most influential strategy was reducing new HIV diagnoses in Hispanic/Latinx men who have sex with men through increased PrEP uptake, resulting in 907/2444 (37.1%) fewer annual new HIV infections in 2030. Achieving all objectives jointly would result in 1537/2444 (62.9%) and 1553/2444 (63.5%) fewer annual new HIV infections with the proportional and equity-oriented approaches, respectively.

Interpretation

Achieving the goals of Florida's integrated care plan would significantly reduce HIV incidence in Miami-Dade County; however, further efforts are required to achieve EHE targets. Structural changes in service delivery and a focus on effective implementation of available interventions to address racial/ethnic disparities will be crucial to ending the HIV epidemic.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Drug Abuse grant no. R01-DA041747.

Translating and disseminating a localised economic model to support implementation of the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative to public health policymakers

Background

Despite significant progress in HIV treatment and prevention, the US remains far from its goal of 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' by 2030. Economic models using local data can synthesise the evidence to help policymakers allocate HIV resources efficiently, but persistent research-to-practice gaps remain. Little is known about how to facilitate the use of economic modelling data among local public health policymakers in real-world settings.

Aims and objectives

To explore the dissemination of results from a locally-calibrated economic model for HIV prevention and treatment and identify the factors influencing potential uptake of the model for public health decision making at the local level.

Methods

Four virtual focus groups with 26 local health department policymakers in Baltimore, Miami, Seattle, and New York City were held between July 2020 and May 2021. Qualitative content analysis of transcripts identified key themes around using the localised economic model in policy decisions.

Results

Participants were interested in using local data in their decisions to allocate resources for HIV prevention/treatment. Six themes emerged: 1) importance of understanding local policy context; 2) health equity considerations; 3) using evidence to support current priorities; 4) difficulty of changing strategies, even incrementally; 5) bang for the incremental buck (efficiency) vs. previous impact; and 6) community values.

Conclusion and relevance

To optimise acceptance and use of results from economic models, researchers should engage with local community members and public health decision makers early to understand budgetary and community priorities. Participants prioritised evidence that supports their existing strategies, considers budgets and funding streams, and improves health equity; however, real-world budget constraints and conflicting interests serve as barriers to implementing model recommendations and reaching national goals.

The Testing Imperative: Why the US Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic Program Needs to Renew Efforts to Expand HIV Testing in Clinical and Community-Based Settings

Data from several modeling studies demonstrate that large-scale increases in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing across settings with a high burden of HIV may produce the largest incidence reductions to support the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative's goal of reducing new HIV infections 90% by 2030. Despite US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations for routine HIV screening within clinical settings and at least yearly screening for individuals most at risk of acquiring HIV, fewer than half of US adults report ever receiving an HIV test. Furthermore, total domestic funding for HIV prevention has remained unchanged between 2013 and 2019. The authors describe the evidence supporting the value of expanded HIV testing, identify challenges in implementation, and present recommendations to address these barriers through approaches at local and federal levels to reach EHE targets.

Advancing considerations of context in the evaluation and implementation of evidence-based biomedical HIV prevention interventions: a review of recent research

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

A paradigm shift is needed in how we think about biomedical HIV prevention product effectiveness. Often, we expect randomized trial findings to be generalizable across populations and settings where products will be delivered, without consideration of key contextual drivers that could impact effectiveness. Moreover, researchers and policy-makers generally discount products with varied effect sizes across contexts, rather than explicating the drivers of these differences and using them to inform equitable product choice and delivery. We conducted a review of the recent HIV prevention research to advance considerations of context in choices of when, why, and how to implement biomedical HIV prevention products, with a particular focus on daily oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and the dapivirine vaginal ring (DPV).

RECENT FINDINGS

Findings across recent studies of PrEP and DPV emphasize that products that do not work well in one context might be highly desirable in another. Key contextual drivers of PrEP and DPV effectiveness, use, and implementation include population, health system, cultural, and historical factors. We recommend conceptualization, measurement, and analysis approaches to fully understand the potential impact of context on prevention product delivery. Execution of these approaches has real-world implications for HIV prevention product choice and could prevent the field from dismissing biomedical HIV prevention products based on trial findings alone.

SUMMARY

Ending the HIV epidemic will require tailored, person-centered, and equitable approaches to design, implement, and evaluate HIV prevention products which necessitates considerations of context in ongoing research and implementation.

Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan

Background

The U.S. Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence by 90% by 2030, by first focusing interventions on 57 regions (EHE jurisdictions) that contributed to more than 50% of annual HIV diagnoses. Mathematical models that project HIV incidence evaluate the impact of interventions and inform intervention decisions. However, current models are either national level, which do not consider jurisdictional heterogeneity, or independent jurisdiction-specific, which do not consider cross jurisdictional interactions. Data suggests that a significant proportion of persons have sexual partnerships outside their own jurisdiction. However, the sensitivity of these jurisdictional interactions on model outcomes and intervention decisions hasn’t been studied.

Methods

We developed an ordinary differential equations based compartmental model to generate national-level projections of HIV in the U.S., through dynamic simulations of 96 epidemiological sub-models representing 54 EHE and 42 non-EHE jurisdictions. A Bernoulli equation modeled HIV-transmissions using a mixing matrix to simulate sexual partnerships within and outside jurisdictions. To evaluate sensitivity of jurisdictional interactions on model outputs, we analyzed 16 scenarios, combinations of a) proportion of sexual partnerships mixing outside jurisdiction: no-mixing, low-level-mixing-within-state, high-level-mixing-within-state, or high-level-mixing-within-and-outside-state; b) jurisdictional heterogeneity in care and demographics: homogenous or heterogeneous; and c) intervention assumptions for 2019–2030: baseline or EHE-plan (diagnose, treat, and prevent).

Results

Change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios varied by EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions and aggregation-level. When assuming jurisdictional heterogeneity and baseline-intervention, the change in aggregated incidence ranged from − 2 to 0% for EHE and 5 to 21% for non-EHE, but within each jurisdiction it ranged from − 31 to 46% for EHE and − 18 to 109% for non-EHE. Thus, incidence estimates were sensitive to jurisdictional mixing more at the jurisdictional level. As a result, jurisdiction-specific HIV-testing intervals inferred from the model to achieve the EHE-plan were also sensitive, e.g., when no-mixing scenarios suggested testing every 1 year (or 3 years), the three mixing-levels suggested testing every 0.8 to 1.2 years, 0.6 to 1.5 years, and 0.6 to 1.5 years, respectively (or 2.6 to 3.5 years, 2 to 4.8 years, and 2.2 to 4.1 years, respectively). Similar patterns were observed when assuming jurisdictional homogeneity, however, change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios were high even in aggregated incidence.

Conclusions

Accounting jurisdictional mixing and heterogeneity could improve model-based analyses.

Agent-based model projections for reducing HIV infection among MSM: Prevention and care pathways to end the HIV epidemic in Chicago, Illinois

Our objective is to improve local decision-making for strategies to end the HIV epidemic using the newly developed Levers of HIV agent-based model (ABM). Agent-based models use computer simulations that incorporate heterogeneity in individual behaviors and interactions, allow emergence of systemic behaviors, and extrapolate into the future. The Levers of HIV model (LHM) uses Chicago neighborhood demographics, data on sex-risk behaviors and sexual networks, and data on the prevention and care cascades, to model local dynamics. It models the impact of changes in local preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) (ie, levers) for meeting Illinois' goal of "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) -reducing by 90% new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) by 2030. We simulate a 15-year period (2016-2030) for 2304 distinct scenarios based on 6 levers related to HIV treatment and prevention: (1) linkage to PrEP for those testing negative, (2) linkage to ART for those living with HIV, (3) adherence to PrEP, (4) viral suppression by means of ART, (5) PrEP retention, and (6) ART retention. Using tree-based methods, we identify the best scenarios at achieving a 90% HIV infection reduction by 2030. The optimal scenario consisted of the highest levels of ART retention and PrEP adherence, next to highest levels of PrEP retention, and moderate levels of PrEP linkage, achieved 90% reduction by 2030 in 58% of simulations. We used Bayesian posterior predictive distributions based on our simulated results to determine the likelihood of attaining 90% HIV infection reduction using the most recent Chicago Department of Public Health surveillance data and found that projections of the current rate of decline (2016-2019) would not achieve the 90% (p = 0.0006) reduction target for 2030. Our results suggest that increases are needed at all steps of the PrEP cascade, combined with increases in retention in HIV care, to approach 90% reduction in new HIV diagnoses by 2030. These findings show how simulation modeling with local data can guide policy makers to identify and invest in efficient care models to achieve long-term local goals of ending the HIV epidemic.

Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Retention and Re-engagement Interventions in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review

Engagement in lifelong HIV care is critical for both patient and public health, yet there are limited resources to invest in improving HIV outcomes. We systematically reviewed evidence on the cost-effectiveness of retention and re-engagement interventions. We searched five databases for peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2020. We assessed reporting and methods quality, extracted data on target populations, interventions, and cost-effectiveness, and evaluated overall strength of evidence. Eleven studies met inclusion criteria, and eight had moderate-high quality. Cost-effectiveness estimates ranged from cost-saving to over $1,000,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Of the 73 cost-effectiveness ratios reported, 64% were < $100,000/QALY gained. Interventions were more likely to be cost-effective when targeted to high-risk groups, implemented in locations where baseline retention levels were low, and when used in combination with other high-impact HIV interventions (such as prevention). Overall, existing evidence is moderately strong that retention and/or re-engagement interventions can be cost-effective in high-income countries.

Estimating Costs of the HIV Comprehensive Intervention Using the Spectrum Model - China, 2015-2019

INTRODUCTION

In order to facilitate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention, the resource needs for HIV national strategic planning in developing regions were estimated based on Spectrum, the universal HIV cost-effectiveness analysis software.

METHODS

Based on the theoretical framework of Spectrum, the study developed a cost measurement tool for HIV, and calculated the cost of HIV prevention and control in 6 sampled cities in China during 2015-2019 using the Spectrum model.

RESULTS

From 2015 to 2019, the average annual costs for HIV prevention and control for Shijiazhuang, Yantai, Ningbo, Zhenjiang, Foshan, and Wuxi cities were 46.78, 47.55, 137.49, 24.73, 74.37, and 58.30 million Chinese yuan (CNY), respectively. The per capita costs were 4.37, 6.73, 17.33, 7.77, 17.56, and 8.91 CNY, respectively. In terms of the cost structure, the ratio of preventive intervention funds to therapeutic intervention funds (antiviral treatment) varied in sampled cities.

DISCUSSION

Developing comprehensive and systematic HIV fund calculation methods can provide a research basis for rational resource allocation in the field of HIV.

M2HepPrEP: study protocol for a multi-site multi-setting randomized controlled trial of integrated HIV prevention and HCV care for PWID

Background

Opioid use is escalating in North America and comes with a multitude of health consequences, including HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) outbreaks among persons who inject drugs (PWID). HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and HCV treatment regimens have transformative potential to address these co-occurring epidemics. Evaluation of innovative multi-modal approaches, integrating harm reduction, opioid agonist therapy (OAT), PrEP, and HCV treatment is required. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of an on-site integrated care model where delivery of PrEP and HCV treatment for PWID takes places at syringe service programs (SSP) and OAT programs compared with referring PWID to clinical services in the community through a patient navigation model and to examine how structural factors interact with HIV prevention adherence and HCV treatment outcomes.

Methods

The Miami-Montreal Hepatitis C and Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis trial (M²HepPrEP) is an open-label, multi-site, multi-center, randomized, controlled, superiority trial with two parallel treatment arms. A total of 500 persons who injected drugs in the prior 6 months and are eligible for PrEP will be recruited in OAT clinics and SSP in Miami, FL, and Montréal, Québec. Participants will be randomized to either on-site care, with adherence counseling, or referral to off-site clinics assisted by a patient navigator. PrEP will be offered to all participants and HCV treatment to those HCV-infected. Co-primary endpoints will be (1) adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis medication at 6 months post-randomization and (2) HCV sustained virological response (SVR) 12 weeks post-treatment completion among participants who were randomized within the HCV stratum. Up to 100 participants will be invited to participate in a semi-structured interview regarding perceptions of adherence barriers and facilitators, after their 6-month assessment. A simulation model-based cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed to determine the comparative value of the strategies being evaluated.

Discussion

The results of this study have the potential to demonstrate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of offering PrEP and HCV treatment in healthcare venues frequently attended by PWID. Testing the intervention in two urban centers with high disease burden among PWID, but with different healthcare system dynamics, will increase generalizability of findings.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03981445. Trial registry name: Integrated HIV Prevention and HCV Care for PWID (M2HepPrEP). Registration date: June 10, 201.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06085-3.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets

BACKGROUND

A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met.

METHODS

We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030.

RESULTS

With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Estimating the HIV Effective Reproduction Number in the United States and Evaluating HIV Elimination Strategies

CONTEXT

The reproduction number is a fundamental epidemiologic concept used to assess the potential spread of infectious diseases and whether they can be eliminated.

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the 2017 United States HIV effective reproduction number, Re, the average number of secondary infections from an infected person in a partially infected population. We analyzed the potential effects on Re of interventions aimed at improving patient flow rates along different stages of the HIV care continuum. We also examined these effects by individual transmission groups.

DESIGN

We used the HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics (HOPE) model, a compartmental model of disease progression and transmission, and the next-generation matrix method to estimate Re. We then projected the impact of changes in HIV continuum-of-care interventions on the continuum-of-care flow rates and the estimated Re in 2020.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

The HOPE model simulated the sexually active US population and persons who inject drugs, aged 13 to 64 years, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The estimated value of Re in 2017 and changes in Re in 2020 from interventions affecting the continuum-of-care flow rates.

RESULTS

Our estimated HIV Re in 2017 was 0.92 [0.82, 0.94] (base case [min, max across calibration sets]). Among the interventions considered, the most effective way to reduce Re substantially below 1.0 in 2020 was to maintain viral suppression among those receiving HIV treatment. The greatest impact on Re resulted from changing the flow rates for men who have sex with men (MSM).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that current prevention and treatment efforts may not be sufficient to move the country toward HIV elimination. Reducing Re to substantially below 1.0 may be achieved by an ongoing focus on early diagnosis, linkage to care, and sustained viral suppression especially for MSM.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities

BACKGROUND

Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.

RESULTS

Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.

CONCLUSION

These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.

DESIGN

A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.

SETTING

32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

PATIENTS

Simulated populations in each MSA.

INTERVENTION

Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org).

LIMITATION

The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.

CONCLUSION

Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Toward Greater Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Equity: Increasing Provision and Uptake for Black and Hispanic/Latino Individuals in the U.S

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective at preventing HIV acquisition and is a critical tool in the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative. However, major racial and ethnic disparities across the pre-exposure prophylaxis continuum, secondary to structural inequities and systemic racism, threaten progress. Many barriers, operating at the individual, network, healthcare, and structural levels, impede PrEP access and uptake within Black and Hispanic/Latino communities. This review provides an overview of those barriers and the innovative and collaborative solutions that health departments, healthcare organizations, and community partners have implemented to increase PrEP provision and uptake among disproportionately affected communities. Promising strategies at the individual and network levels focus on increasing patient support throughout the PrEP continuum, positioning and training community members to expand knowledge of and interest in PrEP, and leveraging mobile technologies to support PrEP uptake. Healthcare-level solutions include expanding the venues and types of healthcare professionals that can provide PrEP, and structural- and policy-level options focus on financial assistance programs and health insurance expansion. Key research gaps include demonstrating that pilot studies and interventions remain effective at scale and across varied contexts. Although the last 2 decades have provided effective tools to end the HIV epidemic, realizing this vision for the U.S. will require addressing persistent and pervasive HIV-related disparities in Black and Hispanic/Latino communities. Federal, state, and local partners should expand efforts to address longstanding health and structural inequities and partner with disproportionately affected communities to rapidly expand PrEP scale-up.

Attributing health benefits to preventing HIV infections versus improving health outcomes among people living with HIV: an analysis in six US cities

OBJECTIVE

Combination strategies generate health benefits through improved health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and prevention of new infections. We aimed to determine health benefits attributable to improved health among PLHIV versus HIV prevention for a set of combination strategies in six US cities.

DESIGN

A dynamic HIV transmission model.

METHODS

Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City (NYC) and Seattle, we assessed the health benefits of city-specific optimal combinations of evidence-based interventions implemented at publicly documented levels and at ideal (90% coverage) scale-up (2020-2030 implementation, 20-year study period). We calculated the proportion of health benefit gains (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) resulting from averted and delayed HIV infections; improved health outcomes among PLHIV; and improved health outcomes due to medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD).

RESULTS

The HIV-specific proportion of total benefits ranged from 68.3% (95% credible interval: 55.3-80.0) in Seattle to 98.5% (97.5-99.3) in Miami, with the rest attributable to MOUD. The majority of HIV-specific health benefits in five of six cities were attributable HIV prevention, and ranged from 33.1% (26.1-41.1) in NYC to 83.1% (79.6-86.6) in Atlanta. Scaling up to ideal service levels resulted in three to seven-fold increases in additional health benefits, mostly from MOUD, with HIV-specific health gains primarily driven by HIV prevention.

CONCLUSION

Optimal combination strategies generated a larger proportion of health benefits attributable to HIV prevention in five of six cities, underlining the substantial benefits of antiretroviral therapy engagement for the prevention of HIV transmission through viral suppression. Understanding to whom benefits accrue may be important in assessing the equity and impact of HIV investments.

Brief Report: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Virological Suppression in People Living With HIV Attending a Large Italian HIV Clinic

BACKGROUND

We assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on HIV suppression rates in people living with HIV (PLWH) attending a large Italian HIV clinic.

SETTING

The HIV outpatient clinic of the Infectious Diseases Department of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy, which serves more than 5000 PLWH per year.

METHODS

A before and after quasi-experimental study design was used to make a retrospective assessment of the monthly trend of HIV-RNA determinations of ≥50 among the PLWH attending our clinic, with "before" being the period from January 1, 2016 to February 20, 2020, and "after" being the period from February 21, 2020 to December 31, 2020 (the COVID-19 period). Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate any changes in the trend.

RESULTS

During the study period, 70,349 HIV-RNA viral load determinations were made, and the percentage of HIV-RNA viral load determinations of <50 copies/mL increased from 88.4% in 2016 to 93.2% in 2020 (P < 0.0001). There was a significant monthly trend toward a decrease in the number of HIV-RNA determinations of ≥50 copies/mL before the pandemic (β -0.084; standard error 0.015; P < 0.001), and this did not significantly change after it started (β -0.039, standard error 0.161; P = 0.811).

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of viral suppression was maintained among the PLWH referring to our clinic, despite the structural barriers raised by the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of simplified methods of delivering care (such as teleconsultations and multiple antiretroviral treatment prescriptions) may have contributed to preserving this continuum.

Improving health equity and ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis in six cities

BACKGROUND

In the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities.

METHODS

We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach.

FINDINGS

In all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles.

INTERPRETATION

Equity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA.

FUNDING

National Institute on Drug Abuse.

A decision analytics model to optimize investment in interventions targeting the HIV preexposure prophylaxis cascade of care

OBJECTIVES

Gaps between recommended and actual levels of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use remain among MSM. Interventions can address these gaps but it is unknown how public health initiatives should invest prevention funds into these interventions to maximize their population impact.

DESIGN

We used a stochastic network-based HIV transmission model for MSM in the Atlanta area paired with an economic budget optimization model.

METHODS

The model simulated MSM participating in up to three real-world PrEP cascade interventions designed to improve initiation, adherence, or persistence. The primary outcome was infections averted over 10 years. The budget optimization model identified the investment combination under different budgets that maximized this outcome, given intervention costs from a payer perspective.

RESULTS

From the base 15% PrEP coverage level, the three interventions could increase coverage to 27%, resulting in 12.3% of infections averted over 10 years. Uptake of each intervention was interdependent: maximal use of the adherence and persistence interventions depended on new PrEP users generated by the initiation intervention. As the budget increased, optimal investment involved a mixture of the initiation and persistence interventions but not the adherence intervention. If adherence intervention costs were halved, the optimal investment was roughly equal across interventions.

CONCLUSION

Investments into the PrEP cascade through initiatives should account for the interactions of the interventions as they are collectively deployed. Given current intervention efficacy estimates, the total population impact of each intervention may be improved with greater total budgets or reduced intervention costs.

Temporal Variation in One-Time Partnership Rates Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women

BACKGROUND

Volatility in sexual contact rates has been recognized as an important factor influencing HIV transmission dynamics. One-time partnerships may be particularly important given the potential to quickly accumulate large number of contacts. Yet, empirical data documenting individual variation in contact rates remain rare. This study provides much needed data on temporal variation in one-time partners to better understand behavioral dynamics and improve the accuracy of transmission models.

METHODS

Data for this study were obtained from a longitudinal cohort study of young men who have sex with men and transgender women in Chicago. Participants provided sexual network data every 6 months for 2 years. A series of random effects models examined variation in one-time partnership rates and disaggregated within and between associations of exposure variables. Exposure variables included prior number of one-time partners, number of casual partners, and having a main partner.

RESULTS

Results indicated substantial between-person and within-person variation in one-time partners. Casual partnerships were positively associated and main partnerships negatively associated with one-time partnership rates. There remained a small positive association between prior one-time partnerships and the current number of one-time partnerships.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the preponderance of a low number of one-time partners, substantial variation in one-time partnership rates exists among young men who have sex with men and transgender women. Accordingly, focusing on high contact rate individuals alone may be insufficient to identify periods of highest risk. Future studies should use these estimates to more accurately model how volatility impacts HIV transmission and better understand how this variation influences intervention effectiveness.

Correlates of personal health record registration and utilization among veterans with HIV

Objective

We examined correlates of registration and utilization of the Veteran Health Administration's (VHA) personal health record (PHR), My HealtheVet (MHV), among a national cohort of veterans living with HIV.

Materials and Methods

Using VHA administrative data, we matched veterans with HIV who registered for MHV in fiscal year 2012-2018 (n = 8589) to 8589 veterans with HIV who did not register for MHV. We compared demographic and geographic characteristics, housing status, comorbidities, and non-VHA care between MHV registrants and nonregistrants to identify correlates of MHV registration. Among registrants, we examined the association between these characteristics and MHV tool use (prescription refill, record download, secure messaging, view labs, and view appointments).

Results

MHV registrants were more likely to be younger, women, White, and to have bipolar disorder, depression, or post-traumatic stress disorder diagnosis than nonregistrants. Having a substance use disorder (SUD) diagnosis or a higher Elixhauser score was associated with lower odds of MHV registration. Among registrants, women were less likely to use prescription refill. Patients who were at risk of homelessness in the past year were less likely to use secure messaging and, along with those who were homeless, were less likely to use view labs and prescription refill. Bipolar disorder and depression were associated with increased secure messaging use. Diagnoses of SUD and alcohol use disorder were both associated with lower rates of prescription refill.

Discussion

Among veterans living with HIV, we identified significant differences in PHR registration and utilization by race, sex, age, housing status, and diagnosis.

A Review of Recent HIV Prevention Interventions and Future Considerations for Nursing Science

ABSTRACT

As our knowledge of HIV evolved over the decades, so have the approaches taken to prevent its transmission. Public health scholars and practitioners have engaged in four key strategies for HIV prevention: behavioral-, technological-, biomedical-, and structural/community-level interventions. We reviewed recent literature in these areas to provide an overview of current advances in HIV prevention science in the United States. Building on classical approaches, current HIV prevention models leverage intimate partners, families, social media, emerging technologies, medication therapy, and policy modifications to effect change. Although much progress has been made, additional work is needed to achieve the national goal of ending the HIV epidemic by 2030. Nurses are in a prime position to advance HIV prevention science in partnership with transdisciplinary experts from other fields (e.g., psychology, informatics, and social work). Future considerations for nursing science include leveraging transdisciplinary collaborations and consider social and structural challenges for individual-level interventions.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Implementation Science: a Research Agenda and Call for Wider Application

Purpose of Review

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) can help identify the trade-offs decision makers face when confronted with alternative courses of action for the implementation of public health strategies. Application of CEA alongside implementation scientific studies remains limited. We aimed to identify areas for future development in order to enhance the uptake and impact of model-based CEA in implementation scientific research.

Recent Findings

Important questions remain about how to broadly implement evidence-based public health interventions in routine practice. Establishing population-level implementation strategy components and distinct implementation phases, including planning for implementation, the time required to scale-up programs, and sustainment efforts required to maintain them, can help determine the data needed to quantify each of these elements. Model-based CEA can use these data to determine the added value associated with each of these elements across systems, settings, population subgroups, and levels of implementation to provide tailored guidance for evidence-based public health action. There is a need to integrate implementation science explicitly into CEA to adequately capture diverse real-world delivery contexts and make detailed, informed recommendations on the aspects of the implementation process that provide good value.

Summary

We describe examples of how model-based CEA can integrate implementation scientific concepts and evidence to help tailor evaluations to local context. We also propose six distinct domains for methodological advancement in order to enhance the uptake and impact of model-based cost-effectiveness analysis in implementation scientific research.

Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts

Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.

Cost-Effectiveness of HRSA's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program?

BACKGROUND

With an annual budget of more than $2 billion, the Health Resources and Services Administration's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP) is the third largest source of public funding for HIV care and treatment in the United States, yet little analysis has been done to quantify the long-term public health and economic impacts of the federal program.

METHODS

Using an agent-based, stochastic model, we estimated health care costs and outcomes over a 50-year period in the presence of the RWHAP relative to those expected to prevail if the comprehensive and integrated system of medical and support services funded by the RWHAP were not available. We made a conservative assumption that, in the absence of the RWHAP, only uninsured clients would lose access to these medical and support services.

RESULTS

The model predicts that the proportion of people with HIV who are virally suppressed would be 25.2 percentage points higher in the presence of the RWHAP (82.6 percent versus 57.4 percent without the RWHAP). The number of new HIV infections would be 18 percent (190,197) lower, the number of deaths among people with HIV would be 31 percent (267,886) lower, the number of quality-adjusted life years would be 2.7 percent (5.6 million) higher, and the cumulative health care costs would be 25 percent ($165 billion) higher in the presence of the RWHAP relative to the counterfactual. Based on these results, the RWHAP has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $29,573 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with the non-RWHAP scenario. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the probability of transmitting HIV via male-to-male sexual contact and the cost of antiretroviral medications have the largest effect on the cost-effectiveness of the program.

CONCLUSIONS

The RWHAP would be considered very cost-effective when using standard guidelines of less than the per capita gross domestic product of the United States. The results suggest that the RWHAP plays a critical and cost-effective role in the United States' public health response to the HIV epidemic.

Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice.

RESULTS

The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.

Can the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative transition the USA towards HIV/AIDS epidemic control?

: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for six USA cities, we projected HIV incidence from 2020 to 2040 and estimated whether an established UNAIDS HIV epidemic control target could be met under ideal implementation of optimal combination strategies previously defined for each city. Four of six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, New York City and Seattle) were projected to achieve epidemic control by 2040 and we identified differences in reaching epidemic control across racial/ethnic groups.

Contact Tracing for COVID-19: An Opportunity to Reduce Health Disparities and End the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/AIDS Epidemic in the United States

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing and contact tracing have been proposed as critical components of a safe and effective coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health strategy. We argue that COVID-19 contact tracing may provide a unique opportunity to also conduct widespread HIV testing, among other health-promotion activities.

Modeling an integrated HIV prevention and care continuum to achieve the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate, which combinations of HIV prevention and care activities would have the greatest impact towards reaching the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) plan goals of HIV incidence reduction.

DESIGN

A stochastic network-based HIV transmission model for men who have sex with men (MSM), calibrated to surveillance estimates in the Atlanta area, a focal EHE jurisdiction.

METHODS

Model scenarios varied HIV screening rates under different assumptions of how HIV-negative MSM would be linked to PrEP initiation, and rates of HIV care linkage and retention for those screening positive.

RESULTS

A ten-fold relative increase in HIV screening rates (to approximately biannual screening for black and Hispanic MSM and quarterly for white MSM) would lead to 43% of infections averted if integrated with PrEP initiation. Improvements focused only on black MSM would achieve nearly the same outcome (37% of infections averted). Improvements to HIV care retention would avert 41% of infections if retention rates were improved ten-fold. If both screening and retention were jointly improved ten-fold, up to 74% of cumulative infections would be averted. Under this scenario, it would take 4 years to meet the 75% EHE goal and 12 years to meet the 90% goal for Atlanta MSM.

CONCLUSION

Reaching the EHE 75% incidence reduction goals by their target dates will require immediate and substantial improvements in HIV screening, PrEP, and ART care retention. Meeting these EHE goals in target jurisdictions like Atlanta will be possible only by addressing the HIV service needs of black MSM.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the State of Texas of the United States: Past Reflections, Present Shortcomings, and Future Needs of the Public Health Response

A strategy titled “Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America” aims to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in the United States by at least 90% by 2030, using diagnosis, treatment, and prevention strategies. Texas is a Southern state that has one of the highest numbers of new HIV diagnoses and people with HIV in the country, and where HIV disproportionately impacts minorities. We retrace the historical epidemic in its largest city, Houston, to illustrate the lessons learned and milestones accomplished, which could serve as guideposts for the future. We examine the current epidemic in Texas, including the achieved levels of HIV testing, treatment continua, and pre-exposure prophylaxis prescription, and compare and contrast these with the national estimates and Plan targets. Our findings call for urgent and accelerated expansion of efforts to end HIV in Texas.