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Banerjee A. Disparities by Social Determinants of Health: Links Between Long COVID and Cardiovascular Disease. Can J Cardiol 2024; 40:1123-1134. [PMID: 38428523 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjca.2024.02.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2023] [Revised: 02/21/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Long COVID has been defined by the World Health Organisation as "continuation or development of new symptoms 3 months after the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection, with these symptoms lasting for at least 2 months with no other explanation." Cardiovascular disease is implicated as a risk factor, concomitant condition, and consequence of long COVID. As well as heterogeneity in definition, presentation, and likely underlying pathophysiology of long COVID, disparities by social determinants of health, extensively studied and described in cardiovascular disease, have been observed in 3 ways. First, underlying long-term conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, are associated with incidence and severity of long COVID, and previously described socioeconomic disparities in these factors are important in exacerbating disparities in long COVID. Second, socioeconomic disparities in management of COVID-19 may themselves lead to distal disparities in long COVID. Third, there are socioeconomic disparities in the way that long COVID is diagnosed, managed, and prevented. Together, factors such as age, sex, deprivation, and ethnicity have far-reaching implications in this new postviral syndrome across its management spectrum. There are similarities and differences compared with disparities for cardiovascular disease. Some of these disparities are in fact, inequalities, that is, rather than simply observed variations, they represent injustices with costs to individuals, communities, and economies. This review of current literature considers opportunities to prevent or at least attenuate these socioeconomic disparities in long COVID and cardiovascular disease, with special challenges for research, clinical practice, public health, and policy in a new disease which is evolving.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amitava Banerjee
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Cardiology, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom.
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Fong KJ, Summers C, Cook TM. NHS hospital capacity during covid-19: overstretched staff, space, systems, and stuff. BMJ 2024; 385:e075613. [PMID: 38569726 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-075613] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/05/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Kevin J Fong
- University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, London, UK
- Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, UK
| | - Charlotte Summers
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Tim M Cook
- Royal United Hospitals Foundation Trust, Bath, UK
- School of Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Meulman I, Uiters E, Cloin M, Struijs J, Polder J, Stadhouders N. From test to rest: evaluating socioeconomic differences along the COVID-19 care pathway in the Netherlands. THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS : HEPAC : HEALTH ECONOMICS IN PREVENTION AND CARE 2024:10.1007/s10198-024-01680-4. [PMID: 38499952 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-024-01680-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated healthcare needs and caused excess mortality, especially among lower socioeconomic groups. This study describes the emergence of socioeconomic differences along the COVID-19 pathway of testing, healthcare use and mortality in the Netherlands. METHODOLOGY This retrospective observational Dutch population-based study combined individual-level registry data from June 2020 to December 2020 on personal socioeconomic characteristics, COVID-19 administered tests, test results, general practitioner (GP) consultations, hospital admissions, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions and mortality. For each outcome measure, relative differences between income groups were estimated using log-link binomial regression models. Furthermore, regression models explained socioeconomic differences in COVID-19 mortality by differences in ICU/hospital admissions, test administration and test results. RESULTS Among the Dutch population, the lowest income group had a lower test probability (RR = 0.61) and lower risk of testing positive (RR = 0.77) compared to the highest income group. However, among individuals with at least one administered COVID-19 test, the lowest income group had a higher risk of testing positive (RR = 1.40). The likelihood of hospital admissions and ICU admissions were higher for low income groups (RR = 2.11 and RR = 2.46, respectively). The lowest income group had an almost four times higher risk of dying from COVID-19 (RR = 3.85), which could partly be explained by a higher risk of hospitalization and ICU admission, rather than differences in test administration or result. DISCUSSION Our findings indicated that socioeconomic differences became more pronounced at each step of the care pathway, culminating to a large gap in mortality. This underlines the need for enhancing social security and well-being policies and incorporation of health equity in pandemic preparedness plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iris Meulman
- Tranzo, Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
- Center for Public Health, Healthcare & Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
| | - Ellen Uiters
- Center for Prevention, Lifestyle and Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Mariëlle Cloin
- Tranzo, Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands
| | - Jeroen Struijs
- Center for Public Health, Healthcare & Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center-Health Campus The Hague, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Johan Polder
- Tranzo, Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands
- Center for Public Health, Healthcare & Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Niek Stadhouders
- Scientific Center for Quality of Healthcare, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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Català M, Burn E, Rathod-Mistry T, Xie J, Delmestri A, Prieto-Alhambra D, Jödicke AM. Observational methods for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness research: an empirical evaluation and target trial emulation. Int J Epidemiol 2024; 53:dyad138. [PMID: 37833846 PMCID: PMC10859138 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyad138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 10/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are scarce data on best practices to control for confounding in observational studies assessing vaccine effectiveness to prevent COVID-19. We compared the performance of three well-established methods [overlap weighting, inverse probability treatment weighting and propensity score (PS) matching] to minimize confounding when comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Subsequently, we conducted a target trial emulation to study the ability of these methods to replicate COVID-19 vaccine trials. METHODS We included all individuals aged ≥75 from primary care records from the UK [Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) AURUM], who were not infected with or vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 as of 4 January 2021. Vaccination status was then defined based on first COVID-19 vaccine dose exposure between 4 January 2021 and 28 January 2021. Lasso regression was used to calculate PS. Location, age, prior observation time, regional vaccination rates, testing effort and COVID-19 incidence rates at index date were forced into the PS. Following PS weighting and matching, the three methods were compared for remaining covariate imbalance and residual confounding. Last, a target trial emulation comparing COVID-19 at 3 and 12 weeks after first vaccine dose vs unvaccinated was conducted. RESULTS Vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts comprised 583 813 and 332 315 individuals for weighting, respectively, and 459 000 individuals in the matched cohorts. Overlap weighting performed best in terms of minimizing confounding and systematic error. Overlap weighting successfully replicated estimates from clinical trials for vaccine effectiveness for ChAdOx1 (57%) and BNT162b2 (75%) at 12 weeks. CONCLUSION Overlap weighting performed best in our setting. Our results based on overlap weighting replicate previous pivotal trials for the two first COVID-19 vaccines approved in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martí Català
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Edward Burn
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Trishna Rathod-Mistry
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Junqing Xie
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Antonella Delmestri
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Daniel Prieto-Alhambra
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Department of Medical Informatics, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Annika M Jödicke
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Hall M, Smith L, Wu J, Hayward C, Batty JA, Lambert PC, Hemingway H, Gale CP. Health outcomes after myocardial infarction: A population study of 56 million people in England. PLoS Med 2024; 21:e1004343. [PMID: 38358949 PMCID: PMC10868847 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The occurrence of a range of health outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following MI and generate sociodemographic stratified risk charts in order to inform care recommendations in the post-MI period and underpin shared decision making. METHODS AND FINDINGS This nationwide cohort study includes all individuals aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 229 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between 1 January 2008 and 31 January 2017 (final follow-up 27 March 2017). We analysed 11 non-fatal health outcomes (subsequent MI and first hospitalisation for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, dementia, depression, and cancer) and all-cause mortality. Of the 55,619,430 population of England, 34,116,257 individuals contributing to 145,912,852 hospitalisations were included (mean age 41.7 years (standard deviation [SD 26.1]); n = 14,747,198 (44.2%) male). There were 433,361 individuals with MI (mean age 67.4 years [SD 14.4)]; n = 283,742 (65.5%) male). Following MI, all-cause mortality was the most frequent event (adjusted cumulative incidence at 9 years 37.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [37.6,37.9]), followed by heart failure (29.6%; 95% CI [29.4,29.7]), renal failure (27.2%; 95% CI [27.0,27.4]), atrial fibrillation (22.3%; 95% CI [22.2,22.5]), severe bleeding (19.0%; 95% CI [18.8,19.1]), diabetes (17.0%; 95% CI [16.9,17.1]), cancer (13.5%; 95% CI [13.3,13.6]), cerebrovascular disease (12.5%; 95% CI [12.4,12.7]), depression (8.9%; 95% CI [8.7,9.0]), dementia (7.8%; 95% CI [7.7,7.9]), subsequent MI (7.1%; 95% CI [7.0,7.2]), and peripheral arterial disease (6.5%; 95% CI [6.4,6.6]). Compared with a risk-set matched population of 2,001,310 individuals, first hospitalisation of all non-fatal health outcomes were increased after MI, except for dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI [0.99,1.02];p = 0.468) and cancer (aHR 0.56; 95% CI [0.56,0.57];p < 0.001). The study includes data from secondary care only-as such diagnoses made outside of secondary care may have been missed leading to the potential underestimation of the total burden of disease following MI. CONCLUSIONS In this study, up to a third of patients with MI developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had another MI, and 38% died within 9 years (compared with 35% deaths among matched individuals). The incidence of all health outcomes, except dementia and cancer, was higher than expected during the normal life course without MI following adjustment for age, sex, year, and socioeconomic deprivation. Efforts targeted to prevent or limit the accrual of chronic, multisystem disease states following MI are needed and should be guided by the demographic-specific risk charts derived in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlous Hall
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Lesley Smith
- Leeds Institute for Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Jianhua Wu
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Chris Hayward
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan A. Batty
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Paul C. Lambert
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Harry Hemingway
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Health Data Research UK, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Chris P. Gale
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Department of Cardiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, United Kingdom
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Andersen KM, McGrath LJ, Reimbaeva M, Mendes D, Nguyen JL, Rai KK, Tritton T, Tsang C, Malhotra D, Yang J. Persons diagnosed with COVID-19 in England in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD): a cohort description. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e073866. [PMID: 38216179 PMCID: PMC10806788 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/14/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To create case definitions for confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses, COVID-19 vaccination status and three separate definitions of high risk of severe COVID-19, as well as to assess whether the implementation of these definitions in a cohort reflected the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 epidemiology in England. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Electronic healthcare records from primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) linked to secondary care data (Hospital Episode Statistics) data covering 24% of the population in England. PARTICIPANTS 2 271 072 persons aged 1 year and older diagnosed with COVID-19 in CPRD Aurum between 1 August 2020 and 31 January 2022. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age, sex and regional distribution of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 vaccine doses received prior to diagnosis were assessed separately for the cohorts of cases identified in primary care and those hospitalised for COVID-19 (primary diagnosis code of ICD-10 U07.1 'COVID-19'). Smoking status, body mass index and Charlson Comorbidity Index were compared for the two cohorts, as well as for three separate definitions of high risk of severe disease used in the UK (National Health Service Highest Risk, PANORAMIC trial eligibility, UK Health Security Agency Clinical Risk prioritisation for vaccination). RESULTS Compared with national estimates, CPRD case estimates under-represented older adults in both the primary care (age 65-84: 6% in CPRD vs 9% nationally) and hospitalised (31% vs 40%) cohorts, and over-represented people living in regions with the highest median wealth areas of England (20% primary care and 20% hospital admitted cases in South East vs 15% nationally). The majority of non-hospitalised cases and all hospitalised cases had not completed primary series vaccination. In primary care, persons meeting high-risk definitions were older, more often smokers, overweight or obese, and had higher Charlson Comorbidity Index score. CONCLUSIONS CPRD primary care data are a robust real-world data source and can be used for some COVID-19 research questions, however, limitations of the data availability should be carefully considered. Included in this publication are supplemental files for a total of over 28 000 codes to define each of three definitions of high risk of severe disease.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jingyan Yang
- Pfizer Inc, New York, New York, USA
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
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Aggarwal A, Choudhury A, Fearnhead N, Kearns P, Kirby A, Lawler M, Quinlan S, Palmieri C, Roques T, Simcock R, Walter FM, Price P, Sullivan R. The future of cancer care in the UK-time for a radical and sustainable National Cancer Plan. Lancet Oncol 2024; 25:e6-e17. [PMID: 37977167 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(23)00511-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 09/26/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Cancer affects one in two people in the UK and the incidence is set to increase. The UK National Health Service is facing major workforce deficits and cancer services have struggled to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic, with waiting times for cancer care becoming the worst on record. There are severe and widening disparities across the country and survival rates remain unacceptably poor for many cancers. This is at a time when cancer care has become increasingly complex, specialised, and expensive. The current crisis has deep historic roots, and to be reversed, the scale of the challenge must be acknowledged and a fundamental reset is required. The loss of a dedicated National Cancer Control Plan in England and Wales, poor operationalisation of plans elsewhere in the UK, and the closure of the National Cancer Research Institute have all added to a sense of strategic misdirection. The UK finds itself at a crossroads, where the political decisions of governments, the cancer community, and research funders will determine whether we can, together, achieve equitable, affordable, and high-quality cancer care for patients that is commensurate with our wealth, and position our outcomes among the best in the world. In this Policy Review, we describe the challenges and opportunities that are needed to develop radical, yet sustainable plans, which are comprehensive, evidence-based, integrated, patient-outcome focused, and deliver value for money.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ajay Aggarwal
- Department of Health Services Research & Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ananya Choudhury
- Department of Clinical Oncology and Division of Cancer Sciences, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Nicola Fearnhead
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Pam Kearns
- Institute of Cancer and Genomic Sciences NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Anna Kirby
- Department of Radiotherapy, Royal Marsden Hospital, London, UK
| | - Mark Lawler
- Patrick G Johnston Centre for Cancer Research, Queens University Belfast Belfast, UK
| | | | - Carlo Palmieri
- The Clatterbridge Cancer Centre NHS Foundation Trust, & Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Tom Roques
- Royal College of Radiologists & Norfolk and Norwich University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Norwich, UK
| | - Richard Simcock
- University Hospitals Sussex NHS Foundation Trust, Brighton, UK
| | - Fiona M Walter
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine & Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Pat Price
- Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Richard Sullivan
- Institute of Cancer Policy, Centre for Cancer, Society & Public Health, King's College London, London, UK
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Yang J, Andersen KM, Rai KK, Tritton T, Mugwagwa T, Reimbaeva M, Tsang C, McGrath LJ, Payne P, Backhouse BE, Mendes D, Butfield R, Naicker K, Araghi M, Wood R, Nguyen JL. Healthcare resource utilisation and costs of hospitalisation and primary care among adults with COVID-19 in England: a population-based cohort study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e075495. [PMID: 38154885 PMCID: PMC10759085 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-075495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/30/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To quantify direct costs and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) associated with acute COVID-19 in adults in England. DESIGN Population-based retrospective cohort study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care electronic medical records linked to Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care administrative data. SETTING Patients registered to primary care practices in England. POPULATION 1 706 368 adults with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR or antigen test from August 2020 to January 2022 were included; 13 105 within the hospitalised cohort indexed between August 2020 and March 2021, and 1 693 263 within the primary care cohort indexed between August 2020 and January 2022. Patients with a COVID-19-related hospitalisation within 84 days of a positive test were included in the hospitalised cohort. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary and secondary care HCRU and associated costs ≤4 weeks following positive COVID-19 test, stratified by age group, risk of severe COVID-19 and immunocompromised status. RESULTS Among the hospitalised cohort, average length of stay, including critical care stays, was longer in older adults. Median healthcare cost per hospitalisation was higher in those aged 75-84 (£8942) and ≥85 years (£8835) than in those aged <50 years (£7703). While few (6.0%) patients in critical care required mechanical ventilation, its use was higher in older adults (50-74 years: 8.3%; <50 years: 4.3%). HCRU and associated costs were often greater in those at higher risk of severe COVID-19 than in the overall cohort, although minimal differences in HCRU were found across the three different high-risk definitions. Among the primary care cohort, general practitioner or nurse consultations were more frequent among older adults and the immunocompromised. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19-related hospitalisations in older adults, particularly critical care stays, were the primary drivers of high COVID-19 resource use in England. These findings may inform health policy decisions and resource allocation in the prevention and management of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingyan Yang
- Pfizer Inc, New York, New York, USA
- The Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
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Lam J, Aldridge R, Blackburn R, Harron K. How is ethnicity reported, described, and analysed in health research in the UK? A bibliographical review and focus group discussions with young refugees. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:2025. [PMID: 37848866 PMCID: PMC10583485 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16947-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 10/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The ethnicity data gap pertains to 3 major challenges to address ethnic health inequality: 1) Under-representation of ethnic minorities in research; 2) Poor data quality on ethnicity; 3) Ethnicity data not being meaningfully analysed. These challenges are especially relevant for research involving under-served migrant populations in the UK. We aimed to review how ethnicity is captured, reported, analysed and theorised within policy-relevant research on ethnic health inequities. METHODS We reviewed a selection of the 1% most highly cited population health papers that reported UK data on ethnicity, and extracted how ethnicity was recorded and analysed in relation to health outcomes. We focused on how ethnicity was obtained (i.e. self reported or not), how ethnic groups were categorised, whether justification was provided for any categorisation, and how ethnicity was theorised to be related to health. We held three 1-h-long guided focus groups with 10 young people from Nigeria, Turkistan, Syria, Yemen and Iran. This engagement helped us shape and interpret our findings, and reflect on. 1) How should ethnicity be asked inclusively, and better recorded? 2) Does self-defined ethnicity change over time or context? If so, why? RESULTS Of the 44 included papers, most (19; 43%) used self-reported ethnicity, categorised in a variety of ways. Of the 27 papers that aggregated ethnicity, 13 (48%) provided justification. Only 8 of 33 papers explicitly theorised how ethnicity related to health. The focus groups agreed that 1) Ethnicity should not be prescribed by others; individuals could be asked to describe their ethnicity in free-text which researchers could synthesise to extract relevant dimensions of ethnicity for their research; 2) Ethnicity changes over time and context according to personal experience, social pressure, and nationality change; 3) Migrants and non-migrants' lived experience of ethnicity is not fully inter-changeable, even if they share the same ethnic category. CONCLUSIONS Ethnicity is a multi-dimensional construct, but this is not currently reflected in UK health research studies, where ethnicity is often aggregated and analysed without justification. Researchers should communicate clearly how ethnicity is operationalised for their study, with appropriate justification for clustering and analysis that is meaningfully theorised. We can only start to tackle ethnic health inequity by treating ethnicity as rigorously as any other variables in our research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Lam
- UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, 30 Guilford St, London, WC1N 1EH, UK.
| | - Robert Aldridge
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
- UCL Institute of Health Informatics, 222 Euston Rd, London, NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Ruth Blackburn
- UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, 30 Guilford St, London, WC1N 1EH, UK
| | - Katie Harron
- UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, 30 Guilford St, London, WC1N 1EH, UK
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Dagliati A, Strasser ZH, Hossein Abad ZS, Klann JG, Wagholikar KB, Mesa R, Visweswaran S, Morris M, Luo Y, Henderson DW, Samayamuthu MJ, Tan BW, Verdy G, Omenn GS, Xia Z, Bellazzi R, Murphy SN, Holmes JH, Estiri H. Characterization of long COVID temporal sub-phenotypes by distributed representation learning from electronic health record data: a cohort study. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 64:102210. [PMID: 37745021 PMCID: PMC10511779 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102210] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Characterizing Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID (SARS-CoV-2 Infection), or PASC has been challenging due to the multitude of sub-phenotypes, temporal attributes, and definitions. Scalable characterization of PASC sub-phenotypes can enhance screening capacities, disease management, and treatment planning. Methods We conducted a retrospective multi-centre observational cohort study, leveraging longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data of 30,422 patients from three healthcare systems in the Consortium for the Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE). From the total cohort, we applied a deductive approach on 12,424 individuals with follow-up data and developed a distributed representation learning process for providing augmented definitions for PASC sub-phenotypes. Findings Our framework characterized seven PASC sub-phenotypes. We estimated that on average 15.7% of the hospitalized COVID-19 patients were likely to suffer from at least one PASC symptom and almost 5.98%, on average, had multiple symptoms. Joint pain and dyspnea had the highest prevalence, with an average prevalence of 5.45% and 4.53%, respectively. Interpretation We provided a scalable framework to every participating healthcare system for estimating PASC sub-phenotypes prevalence and temporal attributes, thus developing a unified model that characterizes augmented sub-phenotypes across the different systems. Funding Authors are supported by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Aging, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Medical Research Council, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, European Union, National Institutes of Health, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arianna Dagliati
- Department of Electrical Computer and Biomedical Engineering, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Zachary H. Strasser
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, United States
| | | | - Jeffrey G. Klann
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, United States
| | | | - Rebecca Mesa
- Department of Electrical Computer and Biomedical Engineering, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Shyam Visweswaran
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States
| | - Michele Morris
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States
| | - Yuan Luo
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, United States
| | - Darren W. Henderson
- University of Kentucky, Center for Clinical and Translational Science, Lexington, United States
| | | | - Bryce W.Q. Tan
- National University Hospital, Singapore Department of Medicine, Singapore
| | - Guillame Verdy
- Bordeaux University Hospital, IAM Unit, Bordeaux, France
| | - Gilbert S. Omenn
- University of Michigan, Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, Internal Medicine, Human Genetics, and School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, United States
| | - Zongqi Xia
- University of Pittsburgh Department of Neurology, Pittsburgh, United States
| | - Riccardo Bellazzi
- Department of Electrical Computer and Biomedical Engineering, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Shawn N. Murphy
- Department of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, United States
| | - John H. Holmes
- University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, Institute for Biomedical Informatics, Philadelphia, United States
| | - Hossein Estiri
- Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, United States
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11
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Zhang J, Morley J, Gallifant J, Oddy C, Teo JT, Ashrafian H, Delaney B, Darzi A. Mapping and evaluating national data flows: transparency, privacy, and guiding infrastructural transformation. Lancet Digit Health 2023; 5:e737-e748. [PMID: 37775190 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(23)00157-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023]
Abstract
The importance of big health data is recognised worldwide. Most UK National Health Service (NHS) care interactions are recorded in electronic health records, resulting in an unmatched potential for population-level datasets. However, policy reviews have highlighted challenges from a complex data-sharing landscape relating to transparency, privacy, and analysis capabilities. In response, we used public information sources to map all electronic patient data flows across England, from providers to more than 460 subsequent academic, commercial, and public data consumers. Although NHS data support a global research ecosystem, we found that multistage data flow chains limit transparency and risk public trust, most data interactions do not fulfil recommended best practices for safe data access, and existing infrastructure produces aggregation of duplicate data assets, thus limiting diversity of data and added value to end users. We provide recommendations to support data infrastructure transformation and have produced a website (https://DataInsights.uk) to promote transparency and showcase NHS data assets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joe Zhang
- Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Critical Care, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
| | - Jess Morley
- Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jack Gallifant
- Department of Intensive Care, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK; Laboratory for Computational Physiology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Chris Oddy
- Department of Anaesthesia, Critical Care and Pain, St George's Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
| | - James T Teo
- London Medical Imaging and AI Centre, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK; Department of Neurology, King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Hutan Ashrafian
- Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK; Leeds University Business School, Leeds, UK
| | - Brendan Delaney
- Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ara Darzi
- Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, London, UK
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12
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Canas LS, Molteni E, Deng J, Sudre CH, Murray B, Kerfoot E, Antonelli M, Rjoob K, Capdevila Pujol J, Polidori L, May A, Österdahl MF, Whiston R, Cheetham NJ, Bowyer V, Spector TD, Hammers A, Duncan EL, Ourselin S, Steves CJ, Modat M. Profiling post-COVID-19 condition across different variants of SARS-CoV-2: a prospective longitudinal study in unvaccinated wild-type, unvaccinated alpha-variant, and vaccinated delta-variant populations. Lancet Digit Health 2023; 5:e421-e434. [PMID: 37202336 PMCID: PMC10187990 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(23)00056-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2022] [Revised: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Self-reported symptom studies rapidly increased understanding of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic and enabled monitoring of long-term effects of COVID-19 outside hospital settings. Post-COVID-19 condition presents as heterogeneous profiles, which need characterisation to enable personalised patient care. We aimed to describe post-COVID-19 condition profiles by viral variant and vaccination status. METHODS In this prospective longitudinal cohort study, we analysed data from UK-based adults (aged 18-100 years) who regularly provided health reports via the Covid Symptom Study smartphone app between March 24, 2020, and Dec 8, 2021. We included participants who reported feeling physically normal for at least 30 days before testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently developed long COVID (ie, symptoms lasting longer than 28 days from the date of the initial positive test). We separately defined post-COVID-19 condition as symptoms that persisted for at least 84 days after the initial positive test. We did unsupervised clustering analysis of time-series data to identify distinct symptom profiles for vaccinated and unvaccinated people with post-COVID-19 condition after infection with the wild-type, alpha (B.1.1.7), or delta (B.1.617.2 and AY.x) variants of SARS-CoV-2. Clusters were then characterised on the basis of symptom prevalence, duration, demography, and previous comorbidities. We also used an additional testing sample with additional data from the Covid Symptom Study Biobank (collected between October, 2020, and April, 2021) to investigate the effects of the identified symptom clusters of post-COVID-19 condition on the lives of affected people. FINDINGS We included 9804 people from the COVID Symptom Study with long COVID, 1513 (15%) of whom developed post-COVID-19 condition. Sample sizes were sufficient only for analyses of the unvaccinated wild-type, unvaccinated alpha variant, and vaccinated delta variant groups. We identified distinct profiles of symptoms for post-COVID-19 condition within and across variants: four endotypes were identified for infections due to the wild-type variant (in unvaccinated people), seven for the alpha variant (in unvaccinated people), and five for the delta variant (in vaccinated people). Across all variants, we identified a cardiorespiratory cluster of symptoms, a central neurological cluster, and a multi-organ systemic inflammatory cluster. These three main clusers were confirmed in a testing sample. Gastrointestinal symptoms clustered in no more than two specific phenotypes per viral variant. INTERPRETATION Our unsupervised analysis identified different profiles of post-COVID-19 condition, characterised by differing symptom combinations, durations, and functional outcomes. Our classification could be useful for understanding the distinct mechanisms of post-COVID-19 condition, as well as for identification of subgroups of individuals who might be at risk of prolonged debilitation. FUNDING UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, The Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK Research and Innovation London Medical Imaging & Artificial Intelligence Centre for Value-Based Healthcare, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK Alzheimer's Society, and ZOE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liane S Canas
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.
| | - Erika Molteni
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Jie Deng
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Carole H Sudre
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, Department of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London, UK; Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Computer Science, University College London, London, UK
| | - Benjamin Murray
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Eric Kerfoot
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Michela Antonelli
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Khaled Rjoob
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, Department of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London, UK
| | | | | | | | - Marc F Österdahl
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Ronan Whiston
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Nathan J Cheetham
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Vicky Bowyer
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Tim D Spector
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Alexander Hammers
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Emma L Duncan
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK; Department of Endocrinology, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Sebastien Ourselin
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Claire J Steves
- Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Marc Modat
- School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
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13
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Langenberg C, Hingorani AD, Whitty CJM. Biological and functional multimorbidity-from mechanisms to management. Nat Med 2023; 29:1649-1657. [PMID: 37464031 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02420-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/20/2023]
Abstract
Globally, the number of people with multiple co-occurring diseases will increase substantially over the coming decades, with important consequences for patients, carers, healthcare systems and society. Addressing this challenge requires a shift in the prevailing clinical, educational and scientific thinking and organization-with a strong emphasis on the maintenance of generalist skills to balance the specialization trends of medical education and research. Multimorbidity is not a single entity but differs quantitively and qualitatively across life stages, ethnicities, sexes, socioeconomic groups and geographies. Data-driven science that quantifies the impact of disease co-occurrence-beyond the small number of currently well-studied long-term conditions (such as cardiometabolic diseases)-can help illuminate the pathological diversity of multimorbidity and identify common, mechanistically related, and prognostically relevant clusters. Broader access to data opportunities across modalities and disciplines will catalyze vertical and horizontal integration of multimorbidity research, to enable reconfiguring of medical services, clinical trials, guidelines and research in a way that accounts for the complexity of multimorbidity-and provides efficient, joined-up services for patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Langenberg
- Precision Healthcare University Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
- Computational Medicine, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, UK.
| | - Aroon D Hingorani
- UCL BHF Research Accelerator, University College London, London, UK
- Institute of Cardiovascular Science, University College London, London, UK
- University College London Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK
| | - Christopher J M Whitty
- Department of Health and Social Care, London, UK
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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14
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Müller S, Schultze JL. Systems analysis of human innate immunity in COVID-19. Semin Immunol 2023; 68:101778. [PMID: 37267758 PMCID: PMC10201327 DOI: 10.1016/j.smim.2023.101778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Revised: 05/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Recent developments in sequencing technologies, the computer and data sciences, as well as increasingly high-throughput immunological measurements have made it possible to derive holistic views on pathophysiological processes of disease and treatment effects directly in humans. We and others have illustrated that incredibly predictive data for immune cell function can be generated by single cell multi-omics (SCMO) technologies and that these technologies are perfectly suited to dissect pathophysiological processes in a new disease such as COVID-19, triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Systems level interrogation not only revealed the different disease endotypes, highlighted the differential dynamics in context of disease severity, and pointed towards global immune deviation across the different arms of the immune system, but was already instrumental to better define long COVID phenotypes, suggest promising biomarkers for disease and therapy outcome predictions and explains treatment responses for the widely used corticosteroids. As we identified SCMO to be the most informative technologies in the vest to better understand COVID-19, we propose to routinely include such single cell level analysis in all future clinical trials and cohorts addressing diseases with an immunological component.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Müller
- Systems Medicine, Deutsches Zentrum für Neurodegenerative Erkrankungen (DZNE) e.V., Bonn, Germany; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Genomics & Immunoregulation, Life and Medical Sciences (LIMES) Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Joachim L Schultze
- Systems Medicine, Deutsches Zentrum für Neurodegenerative Erkrankungen (DZNE) e.V., Bonn, Germany; Genomics & Immunoregulation, Life and Medical Sciences (LIMES) Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; PRECISE Platform for Single Cell Genomics and Epigenomics, DZNE and University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
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15
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Viippola E, Kuitunen S, Rodosthenous RS, Vabalas A, Hartonen T, Vartiainen P, Demmler J, Vuorinen AL, Liu A, Havulinna AS, Llorens V, Detrois KE, Wang F, Ferro M, Karvanen A, German J, Jukarainen S, Gracia-Tabuenca J, Hiekkalinna T, Koskelainen S, Kiiskinen T, Lahtela E, Lemmelä S, Paajanen T, Siirtola H, Reeve MP, Kristiansson K, Brunfeldt M, Aavikko M, Gen F, Perola M, Ganna A. Data Resource Profile: Nationwide registry data for high-throughput epidemiology and machine learning (FinRegistry). Int J Epidemiol 2023:dyad091. [PMID: 37365732 PMCID: PMC10396416 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyad091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Essi Viippola
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sara Kuitunen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Andrius Vabalas
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tuomo Hartonen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Pekka Vartiainen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Joanne Demmler
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anna-Leena Vuorinen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Aoxing Liu
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Aki S Havulinna
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Vincent Llorens
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kira E Detrois
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Feiyi Wang
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Matteo Ferro
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Antti Karvanen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jakob German
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Sakari Jukarainen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Javier Gracia-Tabuenca
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- TAUCHI Research Center, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Tero Hiekkalinna
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sami Koskelainen
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tuomo Kiiskinen
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Elisa Lahtela
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Susanna Lemmelä
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Teemu Paajanen
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Harri Siirtola
- TAUCHI Research Center, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Mary Pat Reeve
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kati Kristiansson
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Minna Brunfeldt
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mervi Aavikko
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Markus Perola
- Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Andrea Ganna
- Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland (FIMM), HiLIFE, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Analytic and Translational Genetics Unit, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
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16
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Zhou Y, Shi J, Stein R, Liu X, Baldassano RN, Forrest CB, Chen Y, Huang J. Missing data matter: an empirical evaluation of the impacts of missing EHR data in comparative effectiveness research. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2023; 30:1246-1256. [PMID: 37337922 PMCID: PMC10280351 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocad066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Revised: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/21/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The impacts of missing data in comparative effectiveness research (CER) using electronic health records (EHRs) may vary depending on the type and pattern of missing data. In this study, we aimed to quantify these impacts and compare the performance of different imputation methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS We conducted an empirical (simulation) study to quantify the bias and power loss in estimating treatment effects in CER using EHR data. We considered various missing scenarios and used the propensity scores to control for confounding. We compared the performance of the multiple imputation and spline smoothing methods to handle missing data. RESULTS When missing data depended on the stochastic progression of disease and medical practice patterns, the spline smoothing method produced results that were close to those obtained when there were no missing data. Compared to multiple imputation, the spline smoothing generally performed similarly or better, with smaller estimation bias and less power loss. The multiple imputation can still reduce study bias and power loss in some restrictive scenarios, eg, when missing data did not depend on the stochastic process of disease progression. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Missing data in EHRs could lead to biased estimates of treatment effects and false negative findings in CER even after missing data were imputed. It is important to leverage the temporal information of disease trajectory to impute missing values when using EHRs as a data resource for CER and to consider the missing rate and the effect size when choosing an imputation method.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yizhao Zhou
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Jiasheng Shi
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Ronen Stein
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Xiaokang Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Robert N Baldassano
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Christopher B Forrest
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Yong Chen
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Jing Huang
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
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17
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Nab L, Parker EPK, Andrews CD, Hulme WJ, Fisher L, Morley J, Mehrkar A, MacKenna B, Inglesby P, Morton CE, Bacon SCJ, Hickman G, Evans D, Ward T, Smith RM, Davy S, Dillingham I, Maude S, Butler-Cole BFC, O'Dwyer T, Stables CL, Bridges L, Bates C, Cockburn J, Parry J, Hester F, Harper S, Zheng B, Williamson EJ, Eggo RM, Evans SJW, Goldacre B, Tomlinson LA, Walker AJ. Changes in COVID-19-related mortality across key demographic and clinical subgroups in England from 2020 to 2022: a retrospective cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e364-e377. [PMID: 37120260 PMCID: PMC10139026 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00079-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 05/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 has been shown to differently affect various demographic and clinical population subgroups. We aimed to describe trends in absolute and relative COVID-19-related mortality risks across clinical and demographic population subgroups during successive SARS-CoV-2 pandemic waves. METHODS We did a retrospective cohort study in England using the OpenSAFELY platform with the approval of National Health Service England, covering the first five SARS-CoV-2 pandemic waves (wave one [wild-type] from March 23 to May 30, 2020; wave two [alpha (B.1.1.7)] from Sept 7, 2020, to April 24, 2021; wave three [delta (B.1.617.2)] from May 28 to Dec 14, 2021; wave four [omicron (B.1.1.529)] from Dec 15, 2021, to April 29, 2022; and wave five [omicron] from June 24 to Aug 3, 2022). In each wave, we included people aged 18-110 years who were registered with a general practice on the first day of the wave and who had at least 3 months of continuous general practice registration up to this date. We estimated crude and sex-standardised and age-standardised wave-specific COVID-19-related death rates and relative risks of COVID-19-related death in population subgroups. FINDINGS 18 895 870 adults were included in wave one, 19 014 720 in wave two, 18 932 050 in wave three, 19 097 970 in wave four, and 19 226 475 in wave five. Crude COVID-19-related death rates per 1000 person-years decreased from 4·48 deaths (95% CI 4·41-4·55) in wave one to 2·69 (2·66-2·72) in wave two, 0·64 (0·63-0·66) in wave three, 1·01 (0·99-1·03) in wave four, and 0·67 (0·64-0·71) in wave five. In wave one, the standardised COVID-19-related death rates were highest in people aged 80 years or older, people with chronic kidney disease stage 5 or 4, people receiving dialysis, people with dementia or learning disability, and people who had received a kidney transplant (ranging from 19·85 deaths per 1000 person-years to 44·41 deaths per 1000 person-years, compared with from 0·05 deaths per 1000 person-years to 15·93 deaths per 1000 person-years in other subgroups). In wave two compared with wave one, in a largely unvaccinated population, the decrease in COVID-19-related mortality was evenly distributed across population subgroups. In wave three compared with wave one, larger decreases in COVID-19-related death rates were seen in groups prioritised for primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, including people aged 80 years or older and people with neurological disease, learning disability, or severe mental illness (90-91% decrease). Conversely, smaller decreases in COVID-19-related death rates were observed in younger age groups, people who had received organ transplants, and people with chronic kidney disease, haematological malignancies, or immunosuppressive conditions (0-25% decrease). In wave four compared with wave one, the decrease in COVID-19-related death rates was smaller in groups with lower vaccination coverage (including younger age groups) and conditions associated with impaired vaccine response, including people who had received organ transplants and people with immunosuppressive conditions (26-61% decrease). INTERPRETATION There was a substantial decrease in absolute COVID-19-related death rates over time in the overall population, but demographic and clinical relative risk profiles persisted and worsened for people with lower vaccination coverage or impaired immune response. Our findings provide an evidence base to inform UK public health policy for protecting these vulnerable population subgroups. FUNDING UK Research and Innovation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linda Nab
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Colm D Andrews
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - William J Hulme
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Louis Fisher
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jessica Morley
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Brian MacKenna
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Peter Inglesby
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Caroline E Morton
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sebastian C J Bacon
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - George Hickman
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David Evans
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tom Ward
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rebecca M Smith
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon Davy
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Iain Dillingham
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Steven Maude
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ben F C Butler-Cole
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Thomas O'Dwyer
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Catherine L Stables
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Lucy Bridges
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Bang Zheng
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | | | - Ben Goldacre
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Alex J Walker
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
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18
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Cook TM, Lawton T. Surgery soon after COVID-19: transparent big data have value but careful interpretation is still required. Anaesthesia 2023; 78:671-676. [PMID: 37094781 DOI: 10.1111/anae.16031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/26/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- T M Cook
- Royal United Hospitals Bath NHS Foundation Trust, Bath, UK
- School of Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - T Lawton
- Improvement Academy, Bradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, UK
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19
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Choudhary GI, Fränti P. Predicting onset of disease progression using temporal disease occurrence networks. Int J Med Inform 2023; 175:105068. [PMID: 37104895 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2022] [Revised: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Early recognition and prevention are crucial for reducing the risk of disease progression. This study aimed to develop a novel technique based on a temporal disease occurrence network to analyze and predict disease progression. METHODS This study used a total of 3.9 million patient records. Patient health records were transformed into temporal disease occurrence networks, and a supervised depth first search was used to find frequent disease sequences to predict the onset of disease progression. The diseases represented nodes in the network and paths between nodes represented edges that co-occurred in a patient cohort with temporal order. The node and edge level attributes contained meta-information about patients' gender, age group, and identity as labels where the disease occurred. The node and edge level attributes guided the depth first search to identify frequent disease occurrences in specific genders and age groups. The patient history was used to match the most frequent disease occurrences and then the obtained sequences were merged together to generate a ranked list of diseases with their conditional probability and relative risk. RESULTS The study found that the proposed method had improved performance compared to other methods. Specifically, when predicting a single disease, the method achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.65 and an F1-score of 0.11. When predicting a set of diseases relative to ground truth, the method achieved an AUC of 0.68 and an F1-score of 0.13. CONCLUSION The ranked list generated by the proposed method, which includes the probability of occurrence and relative risk score, can provide physicians with valuable information about the sequential development of diseases in patients. This information can help physicians to take preventive measures in a timely manner, based on the best available information.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - P Fränti
- School of Computing, University of Eastern Finland.
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20
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The COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage in ICU Patients with Severe COVID-19 Infection in a Country with Low Vaccination Coverage-A National Retrospective Analysis. J Clin Med 2023; 12:jcm12051749. [PMID: 36902535 PMCID: PMC10003614 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12051749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Romania is one of the European countries with low COVID-19 vaccination coverage. The main goal of this study was to describe the COVID-19 vaccination status in patients admitted to Romanian ICUs with a severe COVID-19 infection. The study describes the patients' characteristics according to their vaccination status and evaluates the association between vaccination status and ICU mortality. METHODS This retrospective, observational, multicenter study included patients with confirmed vaccination status admitted to Romanian ICUs from January 2021 to March 2022. RESULTS Two thousand, two hundred and twenty-two patients with confirmed vaccination status were included. Five point one three percent of patients were vaccinated with two vaccine doses and one point seventeen percent of patients were vaccinated with one vaccine dose. The vaccinated patients showed a higher rate of comorbidities but had similar clinical characteristics at ICU admission and lower mortality rates compared to non-vaccinated patients. Vaccinated status and higher Glasgow Coma Scale at ICU admission were independently associated with ICU survival. Ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, higher SOFA score at ICU admission and the need for mechanical ventilation in ICU were independently associated with ICU mortality. CONCLUSION Lower rates of ICU admission were observed in fully vaccinated patients even in a country with low vaccination coverage. The ICU mortality was lower for fully vaccinated patients compared to non-vaccinated patients. The benefit of vaccination on ICU survival could be more important in patients with associated comorbidities.
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21
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Mizani MA, Dashtban A, Pasea L, Lai AG, Thygesen J, Tomlinson C, Handy A, Mamza JB, Morris T, Khalid S, Zaccardi F, Macleod MJ, Torabi F, Canoy D, Akbari A, Berry C, Bolton T, Nolan J, Khunti K, Denaxas S, Hemingway H, Sudlow C, Banerjee A. Using national electronic health records for pandemic preparedness: validation of a parsimonious model for predicting excess deaths among those with COVID-19-a data-driven retrospective cohort study. J R Soc Med 2023; 116:10-20. [PMID: 36374585 PMCID: PMC9909113 DOI: 10.1177/01410768221131897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 09/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths. DESIGN An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study. SETTING Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD); and linked EHR and COVID-19 data in England provided in NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment (TRE). PARTICIPANTS In the development (CPRD) and validation (TRE) cohorts, we included 3.8 million and 35.1 million individuals aged ≥30 years, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES One-year all-cause excess deaths related to COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021. RESULTS From 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021, there were 127,020 observed excess deaths. Observed RR was 4.34% (95% CI, 4.31-4.38) and IR was 6.27% (95% CI, 6.26-6.28). In the validation cohort, predicted one-year excess deaths were 100,338 compared with the observed 127,020 deaths with a ratio of predicted to observed excess deaths of 0.79. CONCLUSIONS We show that a simple, parsimonious model incorporating baseline mortality risk, one-year IR and RR of the pandemic can be used for scenario-based prediction of excess deaths in the early stages of a pandemic. Our analyses show that EHR could inform pandemic planning and surveillance, despite limited use in emergency preparedness to date. Although infection dynamics are important in the prediction of mortality, future models should take greater account of underlying conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehrdad A Mizani
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, NW1
2BE, UK
| | - Ashkan Dashtban
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Laura Pasea
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Alvina G Lai
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Johan Thygesen
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Chris Tomlinson
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Alex Handy
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Jil B Mamza
- Medical and Scientific Affairs, BioPharmaceuticals Medical,
AstraZeneca, Cambridge, CB2 0AA, UK
| | - Tamsin Morris
- Medical and Scientific Affairs, BioPharmaceuticals Medical,
AstraZeneca, Cambridge, CB2 0AA, UK
| | - Sara Khalid
- Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and
Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7HE, UK
| | - Francesco Zaccardi
- Leicester Diabetes Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester,
LE5 4PW, UK
| | - Mary Joan Macleod
- School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University
of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX, UK
| | - Fatemeh Torabi
- Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Science, Swansea
University, Swansea, SA2 8QA, UK
| | - Dexter Canoy
- Nuffield Department of Women’s and Reproductive Health,
University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 9DU, UK
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Science, Swansea
University, Swansea, SA2 8QA, UK
| | - Colin Berry
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of
Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Thomas Bolton
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, NW1
2BE, UK
| | - John Nolan
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, NW1
2BE, UK
| | - Kamlesh Khunti
- Leicester Diabetes Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester,
LE5 4PW, UK
| | - Spiros Denaxas
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Harry Hemingway
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - Cathie Sudlow
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, NW1
2BE, UK
| | - Amitava Banerjee
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
| | - on behalf of the CVD-COVID-UK Consortium
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London,
London NW1 2DA, UK
- BHF Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, NW1
2BE, UK
- Medical and Scientific Affairs, BioPharmaceuticals Medical,
AstraZeneca, Cambridge, CB2 0AA, UK
- Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and
Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7HE, UK
- Leicester Diabetes Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester,
LE5 4PW, UK
- School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University
of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX, UK
- Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Science, Swansea
University, Swansea, SA2 8QA, UK
- Nuffield Department of Women’s and Reproductive Health,
University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 9DU, UK
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of
Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
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22
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Rosengren A, Söderberg M, Lundberg CE, Lindgren M, Santosa A, Edqvist J, Åberg M, Gisslén M, Robertson J, Cronie O, Sattar N, Lagergren J, Brandén M, Björk J, Adiels M. COVID-19 in people aged 18-64 in Sweden in the first year of the pandemic: Key factors for severe disease and death. GLOBAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2022; 4:100095. [PMID: 36447481 PMCID: PMC9683858 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2022.100095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2022] [Revised: 11/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Studies on risk factors for severe COVID-19 in people of working age have generally not included non-working persons or established population attributable fractions (PAFs) for occupational and other factors. Objectives We describe the effect of job-related, sociodemographic, and other exposures on the incidence, relative risks and PAFs of severe COVID-19 in individuals aged 18-64. Methods We conducted a registry-based study in Swedish citizens aged 18-64 from 1 January 2020 to 1 February 2021 with respect to COVID-19-related hospitalizations and death. Results Of 6,205,459 persons, 272,043 (7.5%) were registered as infected, 3399 (0.05%) needed intensive care, and 620 (0.01%) died, with an estimated case fatality rate of 0.06% over the last 4-month period when testing was adequate. Non-Nordic origin was associated with a RR for need of intensive care of 3·13, 95%CI 2·91-3·36, and a PAF of 32·2% after adjustment for age, sex, work, region and comorbidities. In a second model with occupation as main exposure, and adjusted for age, sex, region, comorbidities and origin, essential workers had an RR of 1·51, 95%CI, 1·35-1·6, blue-collar workers 1·18, 95%CI 1·06-1·31, school staff 1·21, 95%CI 1·01-1·46, and health and social care workers 1·89, 95%CI 1·67-2·135) compared with people able to work from home, with altogether about 13% of the PAF associated with these occupations. Essential workers and blue-collar workers, but no other job categories had higher risk of death, adjusted RRs of 1·79, 95%CI 1·34-2·38 and 1·37, 95%CI 1·04-1·81, with adjusted PAFs of altogether 9%. Conclusion Among people of working age in Sweden, overall mortality and case fatality were low. Occupations that require physical presence at work were associated with elevated risk of needing intensive care for COVID-19, with 14% cases attributable to this factor, and 9% of deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annika Rosengren
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,Region Västra Götaland, Department of Medicine Geriatrics and Emergency Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital Östra Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden,Corresponding author at: Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Mia Söderberg
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Christina E. Lundberg
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Martin Lindgren
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,Region Västra Götaland, Department of Medicine Geriatrics and Emergency Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital Östra Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Ailiana Santosa
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Jon Edqvist
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Maria Åberg
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,Region Västra Götaland, Regionhälsan, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Magnus Gisslén
- Region Västra Götaland, Department of Infectious Diseases, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden,Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Biomedicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Josefina Robertson
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,Region Västra Götaland, Department of Infectious Diseases, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden,Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Biomedicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Ottmar Cronie
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Naveed Sattar
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Jesper Lagergren
- Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden,School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, United Kingdom
| | - Maria Brandén
- Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA), Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden,Institute for Analytical Sociology (IAS), Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Jonas Björk
- Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden,Clinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden
| | - Martin Adiels
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden,School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
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23
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Grad DA, Mureșanu D. Electronic health records in Romania - window of opportunity in improving population's health? J Med Life 2022; 15:1327-1329. [PMID: 36567830 PMCID: PMC9762377 DOI: 10.25122/jml-2022-1032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Diana Alecsandra Grad
- RoNeuro Institute for Neurological Research and Diagnostic, Cluj-Napoca, Romania,Department of Public Health, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Dafin Mureșanu
- RoNeuro Institute for Neurological Research and Diagnostic, Cluj-Napoca, Romania,Department of Neurosciences, Iuliu Hatieganu University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
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24
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Knight R, Walker V, Ip S, Cooper JA, Bolton T, Keene S, Denholm R, Akbari A, Abbasizanjani H, Torabi F, Omigie E, Hollings S, North TL, Toms R, Jiang X, Angelantonio ED, Denaxas S, Thygesen JH, Tomlinson C, Bray B, Smith CJ, Barber M, Khunti K, Davey Smith G, Chaturvedi N, Sudlow C, Whiteley WN, Wood AM, Sterne JA. Association of COVID-19 With Major Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Diseases: A Population-Wide Cohort Study of 48 Million Adults in England and Wales. Circulation 2022; 146:892-906. [PMID: 36121907 PMCID: PMC9484653 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.122.060785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. METHODS We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history. RESULTS Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rochelle Knight
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, UK (R.K., J.A.C., R.D., J.A.C.S.)
- NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West, Bristol, UK (R.K.)
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., G.D.S.)
| | - Venexia Walker
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., G.D.S.)
| | - Samantha Ip
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit (S.I., T.B., S.K., X.J., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology (S.I.), University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Jennifer A. Cooper
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, UK (R.K., J.A.C., R.D., J.A.C.S.)
| | - Thomas Bolton
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit (S.I., T.B., S.K., X.J., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (T.B., S.K., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre (T.B., C.S.), London
| | - Spencer Keene
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit (S.I., T.B., S.K., X.J., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (T.B., S.K., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Rachel Denholm
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, UK (R.K., J.A.C., R.D., J.A.C.S.)
- Health Data Research UK South-West, Bristol (R.D., J.A.C.S.)
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Wales, UK (A.A., H.A., F.T.)
| | - Hoda Abbasizanjani
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Wales, UK (A.A., H.A., F.T.)
| | - Fatemeh Torabi
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Wales, UK (A.A., H.A., F.T.)
| | - Efosa Omigie
- National Health Service Digital, Leeds, UK (E.O., S.H.)
| | - Sam Hollings
- National Health Service Digital, Leeds, UK (E.O., S.H.)
| | - Teri-Louise North
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
| | - Renin Toms
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- School of Health Sciences, Cardiff Metropolitan University, UK (R.T.)
| | - Xiyun Jiang
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit (S.I., T.B., S.K., X.J., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Emanuele Di Angelantonio
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit (S.I., T.B., S.K., X.J., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (T.B., S.K., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence (E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Wellcome Genome Campus, Health Data Research UK Cambridge (E.D.A., A.M.W.)
| | - Spiros Denaxas
- Health Data Research UK (S.D.), London
- Institute of Health Informatics (S.D., J.H.T., C.T.), University College London, UK
- University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre (C.T., S.D.), University College London, UK
- BHF Accelerator, London, UK (S.D.)
| | - Johan H. Thygesen
- Institute of Health Informatics (S.D., J.H.T., C.T.), University College London, UK
| | - Christopher Tomlinson
- Institute of Health Informatics (S.D., J.H.T., C.T.), University College London, UK
- UK Research and Innovation Centre for Doctoral Training in AI-Enabled Healthcare Systems (C.T.), University College London, UK
- University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre (C.T., S.D.), University College London, UK
| | - Ben Bray
- School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College London, UK (B.B.)
| | - Craig J. Smith
- Geoffrey Jefferson Brain Research Centre, Manchester Centre for Clinical Neurosciences, Northern Care Alliance National Health Service Foundation Trust, Salford Royal Hospital, UK (C.J.S.)
- Division of Cardiovascular Sciences, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, UK (C.J.S.)
| | | | - Kamlesh Khunti
- Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, UK (K.K.)
| | - George Davey Smith
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., G.D.S.)
| | - Nishi Chaturvedi
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing at UCL, Institute of Cardiovascular Science (N.C.), University College London, UK
| | - Cathie Sudlow
- British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre (T.B., C.S.), London
| | - William N. Whiteley
- Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, UK (W.N.W.)
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK (W.N.W.)
| | - Angela M. Wood
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit (S.I., T.B., S.K., X.J., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics (T.B., S.K., E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence (E.D.A., A.M.W.), University of Cambridge, UK
- Wellcome Genome Campus, Health Data Research UK Cambridge (E.D.A., A.M.W.)
- NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, UK (A.M.W.)
- Cambridge Centre for AI in Medicine, UK (A.M.W.)
| | - Jonathan A.C. Sterne
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK (R.K., V.W., J.A.C., R.D., T.-L.N., R.T., G.D.S., J.A.C.S.)
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, UK (R.K., J.A.C., R.D., J.A.C.S.)
- Health Data Research UK South-West, Bristol (R.D., J.A.C.S.)
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Dashtban A, Mizani MA, Denaxas S, Nitsch D, Quint J, Corbett R, Mamza JB, Morris T, Mamas M, Lawlor DA, Khunti K, Sudlow C, Hemingway H, Banerjee A. A retrospective cohort study predicting and validating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals with chronic kidney disease. Kidney Int 2022; 102:652-660. [PMID: 35724769 PMCID: PMC9212366 DOI: 10.1016/j.kint.2022.05.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Revised: 04/26/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased risk of baseline mortality and severe COVID-19, but analyses across CKD stages, and comorbidities are lacking. In prevalent and incident CKD, we investigated comorbidities, baseline risk, COVID-19 incidence, and predicted versus observed one-year excess death. In a national dataset (NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment [NHSD TRE]) for England encompassing 56 million individuals), we conducted a retrospective cohort study (March 2020 to March 2021) for prevalence of comorbidities by incident and prevalent CKD, SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality. Baseline mortality risk, incidence and outcome of infection by comorbidities, controlling for age, sex and vaccination were assessed. Observed versus predicted one-year mortality at varying population infection rates and pandemic-related relative risks using our published model in pre-pandemic CKD cohorts (NHSD TRE and Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]) were compared. Among individuals with CKD (prevalent:1,934,585, incident:144,969), comorbidities were common (73.5% and 71.2% with one or more condition[s] in respective data sets, and 13.2% and 11.2% with three or more conditions, in prevalent and incident CKD), and associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly dialysis/transplantation (odds ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval 2.04-2.13) and heart failure (1.73, 1.71-1.76), but not cancer (1.01, 1.01-1.04). One-year all-cause mortality varied by age, sex, multi-morbidity and CKD stage. Compared with 34,265 observed excess deaths, in the NHSD-TRE and CPRD databases respectively, we predicted 28,746 and 24,546 deaths (infection rates 10% and relative risks 3.0), and 23,754 and 20,283 deaths (observed infection rates 6.7% and relative risks 3.7). Thus, in this largest, national-level study, individuals with CKD have a high burden of comorbidities and multi-morbidity, and high risk of pre-pandemic and pandemic mortality. Hence, treatment of comorbidities, non-pharmaceutical measures, and vaccination are priorities for people with CKD and management of long-term conditions is important during and beyond the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashkan Dashtban
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mehrdad A Mizani
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Spiros Denaxas
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Dorothea Nitsch
- Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jennifer Quint
- Faculty of Medicine, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Richard Corbett
- Department of Nephrology, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
| | - Jil B Mamza
- Medical and Scientific Affairs, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - Tamsin Morris
- Medical and Scientific Affairs, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - Mamas Mamas
- Keele Cardiovascular Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Deborah A Lawlor
- School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Kamlesh Khunti
- Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Cathie Sudlow
- British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, UK
| | - Harry Hemingway
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK; Health Data Research UK, University College London, London, UK
| | - Amitava Banerjee
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK; Health Data Research UK, University College London, London, UK; Department of Cardiology, Barts Health NHS Trust, London, UK; Department of Cardiology, University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, London, UK.
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