Responsive modelling of the mpox epidemic in England as a cross-government and academia collaboration: the process, challenges, and lessons learned

Experiences of mpox illness and case management among cis and trans gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in England: a qualitative study

Background

The 2022-2024 global mpox outbreak, occurring primarily in the sexual networks of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), has not been accompanied by a focus on patient perspectives of illness. We explore the experiences of GBMSM diagnosed with mpox in England to understand needs for social and clinical support.

Methods

In-depth interviews (March/July 2023) were conducted with 22 GBMSM diagnosed with mpox in 2022, randomly selected from a national mpox surveillance database, and 4 stakeholders from clinical/community-based organisations. Interviews covered experiences of illness, testing, diagnosis, treatment and contact tracing, and were recorded, transcribed and analysed with a thematic framework.

Findings

Media coverage drawing on homophobic stereotypes around sex between men contributed to feelings of stigma and shame. GBMSM living with HIV appeared to cope better with mpox stigma, drawing on their experiences of being diagnosed with HIV for resilience. Younger GBMSM with less experience of stigmatising illness found mpox diagnosis more traumatic and sometimes required support beyond what was provided. Accessing testing could be complicated when healthcare professionals did not recognise mpox symptoms. Men felt information on course of illness, isolation and vaccination after recovery was often inconsistent and contradictory. GBMSM described that care from sexual health and infectious disease units usually better met their emotional and medical needs. This was frequently linked by men to these services having skills in working with the GBMSM community and managing infection risk sensitively. General hospital services and centralised contact tracing could increase feelings and experiences of stigma as some staff were perceived to lack skills in supporting GBMSM and, sometimes, clinical knowledge. Long-term impacts described by men included mental health challenges, urethral/rectal symptoms and life-changing disability.

Interpretation

In this study stigma was a central feature of mpox illness among GBMSM and could be exacerbated or lessened depending on the clinical and social support provided. Involving communities affected by outbreaks in co-producing, planning and delivering care (including contact-tracing) may help improve support provided.

Funding

TCW, AJR, AS and FMB received support from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Ref: NIHR202038). CS and JS receive support from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Blood Borne and Sexually Transmitted Infections at UCL in partnership with UKHSA; RV receives support from the NIHR HPRU in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections and NIHR HPRU in Gastrointestinal Infections. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, UK Health Security Agency, World Health Organization or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022

BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.ResultsThe seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.

Circulation, viral diversity and genomic rearrangement in mpox virus in the Netherlands during the 2022 outbreak and beyond

Mpox is an emerging zoonotic disease which has now spread to over 113 countries as of August 2023, with over 89,500 confirmed human cases. The Netherlands had one of the highest incidence rates in Europe during the peak of the outbreak. In this study, we generated 158 near-complete mpox virus (MPXV) genomes (12.4% of nationwide cases) that were collected throughout the Netherlands from the start of the outbreak in May 2022 to August 2023 to track viral evolution and investigate outbreak dynamics. We detected 14 different viral lineages, suggesting multiple introductions followed by rapid initial spread within the country. The estimated evolutionary rate was relatively high compared to previously described in orthopoxvirus literature, with an estimated 11.58 mutations per year. Genomic rearrangement events occurred at a rate of 0.63% and featured a large deletion event. In addition, based on phylogenetics, we identified multiple potential transmission clusters which could be supported by direct source- and contact tracing data. This led to the identification of at least two main transmission locations at the beginning of the outbreak. We conclude that whole genome sequencing of MPXV is essential to enhance our understanding of outbreak dynamics and evolution of a relatively understudied and emerging zoonotic pathogen.

Retrospective evaluation of short-term forecast performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time-series models: The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak across multiple geographical scales, July 14th, 2022, through February 26th, 2023

In May 2022, public health officials noted an unprecedented surge in mpox cases in non-endemic countries worldwide. As the epidemic accelerated, multi-model forecasts of the epidemic's trajectory were critical in guiding the implementation of public health interventions and determining policy. As the case levels have significantly decreased as of early September 2022, evaluating model performance is essential to advance the growing field of epidemic forecasting. Using laboratory-confirmed mpox case data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Our World in Data (OWID) teams through the week of January 26th, 2023, we generated retrospective sequential weekly forecasts (e.g., 1-4-weeks) for Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, the USA, and at the global scale using models that require minimal input data including the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), general additive model (GAM), simple linear regression (SLR), Facebook's Prophet model, as well as the sub-epidemic wave (spatial-wave) and n -sub-epidemic modeling frameworks. We assess forecast performance using average mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), weighted interval score (WIS), 95% prediction interval coverage (95% PI coverage), and skill scores. Average Winkler scores were used to calculate skill scores for 95% PI coverage. Overall, the n -sub-epidemic modeling framework outcompeted other models across most locations and forecasting horizons, with the unweighted ensemble model performing best across all forecasting horizons for most locations regarding average MSE, MAE, WIS, and 95% PI coverage. However, many locations had multiple models performing equally well for the average 95% PI coverage. The n -sub-epidemic and spatial-wave frameworks improved considerably in average MSE, MAE, and WIS, and Winkler scores (95% PI coverage) relative to the ARIMA model. Findings lend further support to sub-epidemic frameworks for short-term forecasting epidemics of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.