Modeling future acidification and fish populations in Norwegian surface waters

The Effect of Human Impact on the Water Quality and Biocoenoses of the Soft Water Lake with Isoetids: Lake Jeleń, NW Poland

Soft water lakes with isoetids (SLI) are ecosystems prone to degradation due to the low buffer capacity of their waters. One of the main threats resulting from human impact is eutrophication due to agriculture, catchment urbanization and recreational use. In this paper, changes in the water chemistry and transformation of biocoenoses of one of the largest Polish SLI, Lake Jeleń, over the past 30 years are presented. The lake is located within the borders of a city, and a significant part of its catchment is under agriculture and recreation use. The physicochemical (concentration of nutrients, organic matter, electrical conductivity, oxygen saturation and water pH) and biological parameters (macrophytes and phytoplankton) were measured in summer 1991, 2004, 2013 and 2018. Since the beginning of the 1990s, a gradual increase in the trophy of the lake has been observed as indicated by increased nutrient availability, deterioration of oxygen conditions and a decrease in water transparency. The alterations of water chemistry induce biological transformations, in particular, an increase in phytoplankton abundance (4-fold increase of biomass in epilimnion) as well as a gradual reduction in the range of the phytolittoral (from 10 to 6 m), a decrease in the frequency of isoetids, Lobelia dortmanna and Isoetes lacustris, and expansion of plant species characteristic for eutrophy.

Dynamic Modeling and Target Loads of Sulfur and Nitrogen for Surface Waters in Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom

The target load concept is an extension of the critical load concept of air pollution inputs to ecosystems. The advantage of target loads over critical loads is that one can define the deposition and the point in time (target year) when the critical (chemical) limit is no longer violated. This information on the timing of recovery requires dynamic modeling. Using a well-documented dynamic model, target loads for acidic deposition were determined for 848 surface waters across Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom for the target year 2050. In the majority of sites ( n = 675), the critical ANC-limit was predicted to be achieved by 2050; however, for 127 sites, target loads were determined. In addition, 46 sites were infeasible, i.e., even a reduction of anthropogenic deposition to zero would not achieve the limit by 2050. The average maximum target load for sulfur was 38% lower than the respective critical load across the study lakes ( n = 127). Target loads on a large regional scale can inform effects-based emission reduction policies; the current assessment suggests that reductions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol are required to ensure surface water recovery from acidification by 2050.

Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling

Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

Modeling past and future acidification of Swedish lakes

Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of "not naturally acidified" (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.

Past, present, and future exceedance of critical loads of acidity for surface waters in Finland

A critical load is a deposition limit below which harmful effects for a given ecosystem do not occur; the approach has underpinned European sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) effects-based emission reduction policies during the last two decades. Surface waters are an important resource in Finland, as such the development of models and determination of critical loads has played a central role in supporting their recovery from acidification or preservation of ecosystem health. Critical loads of acidity for Finnish lakes were determined using the steady-state First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model in conjunction with comprehensive national surveys of surface waters (headwater lakes; n = 1066) and soils. In the 1980s almost 60% of the study lakes were exceeded, impacting brown trout and perch populations. The steep decline in emissions and acidic (S and N) deposition during the last two decades has reduced exceedance to <10%, and by 2020 exceedance is predicted to reach preindustrial (1880) levels. In concert with these reductions, chemical and biological recovery has been observed. The critical load approach has been instrumental in assessing impacts to surface waters in Finland and directing effects-based emission reduction policies.

Chemical and biological recovery of Lake Saudlandsvatn, a formerly highly acidified lake in southernmost Norway, in response to decreased acid deposition

We studied acid-sensitive organisms in Lake Saudlandsvatn in southernmost Norway in relation to acidification: brown trout (Salmo trutta), the caddisfly Hydropsyche siltalai and the zooplankter Daphnia longispina. The study lake was highly acidified with episodic pH depressions <5.0 in the 1970s and 1980s, and sulphur (S) deposition five times greater than the critical load. Chemical recovery following reduced deposition of S became evident in the late 1990s, when the pH increased to 5.5-6.0. By 2000, S deposition had decreased to the critical load. The lake sustained a good brown trout population until the early 1980s, but then it started to decline and nearly went extinct ten years later. Severe recruitment failures were found in most years prior to 1995, both in the inlet and outlet stream. However, since 2003 a marked recovery of the brown trout population has occurred in the lake. During the 1980s, the H. siltalai disappeared from the lake tributaries. In 1996, the species reappeared, and increased highly in abundance from 2000 and onwards. The first post-acidification record of D. longispina from net hauls in Lake Saudlandsvatn was in 2002. Palaeolimnological data confirmed their presence prior to acidification. Any significant recovery in all three organism groups coincided with an acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of >20 μeq L⁻¹ and toxic inorganic aluminium of <30 μg L⁻¹. Projections made with the MAGIC model indicate that unless further reductions in deposition of S are made, the ANC will fluctuate around the ANC survival threshold for the biological elements described. Thus, full biological recovery will not occur in the near future.