Assessing the Effects of Human Activities on Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity of Grasslands in Typical Ecologically Fragile Areas

Global enhanced human activities have deeply influenced grassland ecosystems. Quantifying the impact of human activities on grasslands is crucial to understanding the grassland dynamic change mechanism, such as grassland degradation, and to establishing ecosystem protection measures. In this study, potential net primary productivity (PNPP), actual NPP (ANPP), and the forage harvest NPP (HNPP) were employed to establish the human activities index (HAI) to reveal the spatiotemporal changes of the effects of human activities on grassland ecosystems in eastern Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2017, and to further explore the relationship between human activities and grassland degradation. The results showed that the total average PNPP, ANPP, and HNPP of grasslands in eastern Inner Mongolia were 187.2 Tg C yr^-1, 152.3 Tg C yr^-1, and 8.9 Tg C yr^-1, respectively, during the period of 2000 to 2017. The HAI exhibited a clear decreasing trend during the study period, with annual mean values ranging from 0.75 to 0.47, which indicates that the NPP loss induced by human activities is weakening, and this trend is dominated by the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP. About 42.4% of the study area was non-degraded grassland, and the declining grassland degradation index (GDI) indicated that the degradation grade in eastern Inner Mongolia improved from moderate to light degradation. A positive relationship was found between HAI and GDI. This relationship was more significant in Xilingol League, which is a typical ecologically fragile area, than that in Xing'an League and Hulunbuir City.

Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity

Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discover problematic gaps. Current models usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other species or systems, omit key biological processes, and cannot accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, and universal biodiversity modeling platform that can project essential biodiversity variables, explore the implications of divergent socioeconomic scenarios, and compare conservation and management strategies. We design a roadmap for implementing this vision and demonstrate that building this biodiversity forecasting platform is possible and practical.

Spatiotemporal Downscaling of GRACE Total Water Storage Using Land Surface Model Outputs

High spatiotemporal resolution of terrestrial total water storage plays a key role in assessing trends and availability of water resources. This study presents a two-step method for downscaling GRACE-derived total water storage anomaly (GRACE TWSA) from its original coarse spatiotemporal resolution (monthly, 3-degree spherical cap/~300 km) to a high resolution (daily, 5 km) through combining land surface model (LSM) simulated high spatiotemporal resolution terrestrial water storage anomaly (LSM TWSA). In the first step, an iterative adjustment method based on the self-calibration variance-component model (SCVCM) is used to spatially downscale the monthly GRACE TWSA to the high spatial resolution of the LSM TWSA. In the second step, the spatially downscaled monthly GRACE TWSA is further downscaled to the daily temporal resolution. By applying the method to downscale the coarse resolution GRACE TWSA from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascon solution with the daily high spatial resolution (5 km) LSM TWSA from the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model, we evaluated the benefit and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is capable to downscale GRACE TWSA spatiotemporally with reduced uncertainty. The downscaled GRACE TWSA are also evaluated through in-situ groundwater monitoring well observations and the results show a certain level agreement between the estimated and observed trends.

Spatial variations and long-term trends of potential evaporation in Canada

Assessing the status and trend of potential evaporation (PE) is essential for investigating the climate change impact on the terrestrial water cycle. Despite recent advances, evaluating climate change impacts on PE using pan evaporation (E_pan) data in cold regions is hindered by the unavailability of E_pan measurements in cold seasons due to the freezing of water and sparse spatial distribution of sites. This study generated long-term PE datasets in Canada for 1979–2016 by integrating the dynamic evolutions of water–ice–snow processes into estimation in the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model. The datasets were compared with E_pan before the spatial variations and trends were analyzed. Results show that EALCO PE and E_pan measurements demonstrate similar seasonal variations and trends in warm seasons in most areas. Annual PE in Canada varied from 100 mm in the Northern Arctic to approximately 1000 mm in southern Canadian Prairies, southern Ontario, and East Coast, with about 600 mm for the entire landmass. Annual PE shows an increasing trend at a rate of 1.5–4 mm/year in the Northern Arctic, East, and West Canada. The increase is primarily associated with the elevated air temperature and downward longwave and shortwave radiation, with some regions contributed by augmented wind speed. The increase of annual PE is mainly attributed to the augmentation of PE in warm seasons.

Soil Moisture–Vegetation–Carbon Flux Relationship under Agricultural Drought Condition using Optical Multispectral Sensor

Agricultural drought is triggered by a depletion of moisture content in the soil, which hinders photosynthesis and thus increases carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between soil moisture (SM) and vegetation activity toward quantifying CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. To this end, the MODerate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), an optical multispectral sensor, was used to evaluate two regions in South Korea for validation. Vegetation activity was analyzed through MOD13A1 vegetation indices products, and MODIS gross primary productivity (GPP) product was used to calculate the CO2 flux based on its relationship with respiration. In the case of SM, it was calculated through the method of applying apparent thermal inertia (ATI) in combination with land surface temperature and albedo. To validate the SM and CO2 flux, flux tower data was used which are the observed measurement values for the extreme drought period of 2014 and 2015 in South Korea. These two variables were analyzed for temporal variation on flux tower data as daily time scale, and the relationship with vegetation index (VI) was synthesized and analyzed on a monthly scale. The highest correlation between SM and VI (correlation coefficient (r) = 0.82) was observed at a time lag of one month, and that between VI and CO2 (r = 0.81) at half month. This regional study suggests a potential capability of MODIS-based SM, VI, and CO2 flux, which can be applied to an assessment of the global view of the agricultural drought by using available satellite remote sensing products.

Improved Land Evapotranspiration Simulation of the Community Land Model Using a Surrogate-Based Automatic Parameter Optimization Method

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is important in land-atmosphere interactions of water and energy cycles. However, regional ET simulation has a great uncertainty. In this study, a highly-efficient parameter optimization framework was applied to improve ET simulations of the Community Land Model version 4.0 (CLM4) in China. The CLM4 is a model at land scale, and therefore, the monthly ET observation was used to evaluate the simulation results. The optimization framework consisted of a parameter sensitivity analysis (also called parameter screening) by the multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) method and sensitivity parameter optimization by the adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization (ASMO) method. The results show that seven sensitive parameters were screened from 38 adjustable parameters in CLM4 using the MARS sensitivity analysis method. Then, using only 133 model runs, the optimal values of the seven parameters were found by the ASMO method, demonstrating the high efficiency of the method. For the optimal parameters, the ET simulations of CLM4 were improved by 7.27%. The most significant improvement occurred in the Tibetan Plateau region. Additional ET simulations from the validation years were also improved by 5.34%, demonstrating the robustness of the optimal parameters. Overall, the ASMO method was found to be efficient for conducting parameter optimization for CLM4, and the optimal parameters effectively improved ET simulation of CLM4 in China.

Advancing global change biology through experimental manipulations: Where have we been and where might we go?

This commentary summarizes the publication history of Global Change Biology for works on experimental manipulations over the past 25 years and highlights a number of key publications. The retrospective summary is then followed by some thoughts on the future of experimental work as it relates to mechanistic understanding and methodological needs. Experiments for elevated CO2 atmospheres and anticipated warming scenarios which take us beyond historical analogs are suggested as future priorities. Disturbance is also highlighted as a key agent of global change. Because experiments are demanding of both personnel effort and limited fiscal resources, the allocation of experimental investments across Earth's biomes should be done in ecosystems of key importance. Uncertainty analysis and broad community consultation should be used to identify research questions and target biomes that will yield substantial gains in predictive confidence and societal relevance. A full range of methodological approaches covering small to large spatial scales will continue to be justified as a source of mechanistic understanding. Nevertheless, experiments operating at larger spatial scales encompassing organismal, edaphic, and environmental diversity of target ecosystems are favored, as they allow for the assessment of long-term biogeochemical feedbacks enabling a full range of questions to be addressed. Such studies must also include adequate investment in measurements of key interacting variables (e.g., water and nutrient availability and budgets) to enable mechanistic understanding of responses and to interpret context dependency. Integration of ecosystem-scale manipulations with focused process-based manipulations, networks, and large-scale observations will aid more complete understanding of ecosystem responses, context dependence, and the extrapolation of results. From the outset, these studies must be informed by and integrated with ecosystem models that provide quantitative predictions from their embedded mechanistic hypotheses. A true two-way interaction between experiments and models will simultaneously increase the rate and robustness of Global Change research.

Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

Carbon stocks in vegetation play a key role in the climate system1–4, but their magnitude and patterns, their uncertainties, and the impact of land use on them remain poorly quantified. Based on a consistent integration of state-of-the art datasets, we show that vegetation currently stores ~450 PgC. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store ~916 PgC, under current climate. This difference singles out the massive effect land use has on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects, i.e. land-use induced biomass stock changes within the same land cover, contribute 42-47% but are underappreciated in the current literature. Avoiding deforestation hence is necessary but not sufficient for climate-change mitigation. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for climate change mitigation. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently only verifiable in temperate forests, where potentials are limited. In contrast, large uncertainties hamper verification in the tropical forest where the largest potentials are located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.

Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate.

Changes in net ecosystem productivity of boreal black spruce stands in response to changes in temperature at diurnal and seasonal time scales

Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of boreal coniferous forests is believed to rise with climate warming, thereby offsetting some of the rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration (C(a)) by which warming is caused. However, the response of conifer NEP to warming may vary seasonally, with rises in spring and declines in summer. To gain more insight into this response, we compared changes in CO(2) exchange measured by eddy covariance and simulated by the ecosystem process model ecosys under rising mean annual air temperatures (T(a)) during 2004-2006 at black spruce stands in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec. Hourly net CO(2) uptake was found to rise with warming at T(a) < 15 degrees C and to decline with warming at T(a) > 20 degrees C. As mean annual T(a) rose from 2004 to 2006, increases in net CO(2) uptake with warming at lower T(a) were greater than declines with warming at higher T(a) so that annual gross primary productivity and hence NEP increased. Increases in net CO(2) uptake measured at lower T(a) were explained in the model by earlier recovery of photosynthetic capacity in spring, and by increases in carboxylation activity, using parameters for the Arrhenius temperature functions of key carboxylation processes derived from independent experiments. Declines in net CO(2) uptake measured at higher T(a) were explained in the model by sharp declines in mid-afternoon canopy stomatal conductance (g(c)) under higher vapor pressure deficits (D). These declines were modeled from a hydraulic constraint to water uptake imposed by low axial conductivity of conifer roots and boles that forced declines in canopy water potential (psi(c)), and hence in g(c) under higher D when equilibrating water uptake with transpiration. In a model sensitivity study, the contrasting responses of net CO(2) uptake to specified rises in T(a) caused annual NEP of black spruce in the model to rise with increases in T(a) of up to 6 degrees C, but to decline with further increases at mid-continental sites with lower precipitation. However, these contrasting responses to warming also indicate that rises in NEP with climate warming would depend on the seasonality (spring versus summer) as well as the magnitude of rises in T(a).

Net primary productivity of forest stands in New Hampshire estimated from Landsat and MODIS satellite data

BACKGROUND

A simulation model that relies on satellite observations of vegetation cover from the Landsat 7 sensor and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate net primary productivity (NPP) of forest stands at the Bartlett Experiment Forest (BEF) in the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

RESULTS

Net primary production (NPP) predicted from the NASA-CASA model using 30-meter resolution Landsat inputs showed variations related to both vegetation cover type and elevational effects on mean air temperatures. Overall, the highest predicted NPP from the NASA-CASA model was for deciduous forest cover at low to mid-elevation locations over the landscape. Comparison of the model-predicted annual NPP to the plot-estimated values showed a significant correlation of R2 = 0.5. Stepwise addition of 30-meter resolution elevation data values explained no more than 20% of the residual variation in measured NPP patterns at BEF. Both the Landsat 7 and the 250-meter resolution MODIS derived mean annual NPP predictions for the BEF plot locations were within +/- 2.5% of the mean of plot estimates for annual NPP.

CONCLUSION

Although MODIS imagery cannot capture the spatial details of NPP across the network of closely spaced plot locations as well as Landsat, the MODIS satellite data as inputs to the NASA-CASA model does accurately predict the average annual productivity of a site like the BEF.

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes

Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models - RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE - representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R_h ). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.