Environmental and social impacts of carbon sequestration

Climate change requires major mitigation efforts, mainly emission reduction. Carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation are complementary mitigation strategies that can promote nature conservation and local development but may also have undesirable impacts. We reviewed 246 articles citing impacts, risks, or concerns from carbon projects, and 78 others related to this topic. Most of the impacts cited focus on biodiversity, especially in afforestation projects, and on social effects related to avoided deforestation projects. Concerns were raised about project effectiveness, the permanence of carbon stored, and leakage. Recommendations include accounting for uncertainty, assessing both mitigation and contribution to climate change, defining permanence, creating contingency plans, promoting local projects, proposing alternative livelihoods, ensuring a fair distribution of benefits, combining timber production and carbon sequestration, ensuring sustainable development and minimizing leakage. A holistic approach that combines carbon sequestration, nature conservation, and poverty alleviation must be applied. The potential occurrence of negative impacts does not invalidate carbon projects but makes it advisable to conduct proper environmental impact assessments, considering direct and indirect impacts, minimizing the negative effects while maximizing the positive ones, and weighing the trade-offs between them to guide decision-making. Public participation and transparency are essential. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-27. © 2024 SETAC.

Assessment of an Automated Calibration of the SEBAL Algorithm to Estimate Dry-Season Surface-Energy Partitioning in a Forest–Savanna Transition in Brazil

Evapotranspiration ( E T ) provides a strong connection between surface energy and hydrological cycles. Advancements in remote sensing techniques have increased our understanding of energy and terrestrial water balances as well as the interaction between surface and atmosphere over large areas. In this study, we computed surface energy fluxes using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) algorithm and a simplified adaptation of the CIMEC (Calibration using Inverse Modeling at Extreme Conditions) process for automated endmember selection. Our main purpose was to assess and compare the accuracy of the automated calibration of the SEBAL algorithm using two different sources of meteorological input data (ground measurements from an eddy covariance flux tower and reanalysis data from Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2)) to estimate the dry season partitioning of surface energy and water fluxes in a transitional area between tropical rainforest and savanna. The area is located in Brazil and is subject to deforestation and cropland expansion. The SEBAL estimates were validated using eddy covariance measurements (2004 to 2006) from the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon (LBA) at the Bananal Javaés (JAV) site. Results indicated a high accuracy for daily ET, using both ground measurements and MERRA-2 reanalysis, suggesting a low sensitivity to meteorological inputs. For daily ET estimates, we found a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.35 mm day−1 for both observed and reanalysis meteorology using accurate quantiles for endmembers selection, yielding an error lower than 9% (RMSE compared to the average daily ET). Overall, the ET rates in forest areas were 4.2 mm day−1, while in grassland/pasture and agricultural areas we found average rates between 2.0 and 3.2 mm day−1, with significant changes in energy partitioning according to land cover. Thus, results are promising for the use of reanalysis data to estimate regional scale patterns of sensible heat (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes, especially in areas subject to deforestation.

Droughts Amplify Differences Between the Energy Balance Components of Amazon Forests and Croplands

Droughts can exert a strong influence on the regional energy balance of the Amazon and Cerrado, as can the replacement of native vegetation by croplands. What remains unclear is how these two forcing factors interact and whether land cover changes fundamentally alter the sensitivity of the energy balance components to drought events. To fill this gap, we used remote sensing data to evaluate the impacts of drought on evapotranspiration (ET), land surface temperature (LST), and albedo on cultivated areas, savannas, and forests. Our results (for seasonal drought) indicate that increases in monthly dryness across Mato Grosso state (southern Amazonia and northern Cerrado) drive greater increases in LST and albedo in croplands than in forests. Furthermore, during the 2007 and 2010 droughts, croplands became hotter (0.1–0.8 °C) than savannas (0.3–0.6 °C) and forests (0.2–0.3 °C). However, forest ET was consistently higher than ET in all other land uses. This finding likely indicates that forests can access deeper soil water during droughts. Overall, our findings suggest that forest remnants can play a fundamental role in the mitigation of the negative impacts of extreme drought events, contributing to a higher ET and lower LST.

The exchange of water and energy between a tropical peat forest and the atmosphere: Seasonal trends and comparison against other tropical rainforests

Tropical rainforests control the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere near the equator and thus play an important role in the global climate system. Measurements of latent (LE) and sensible heat exchange (H) have not been synthesized across global tropical rainforests to date, which can help place observations from individual tropical forests in a global context. We measured LE and H for four years in a tropical peat forest ecosystem in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo using eddy covariance, and hypothesize that the study ecosystem will exhibit less seasonal variability in turbulent fluxes than other tropical ecosystems as soil water is not expected to be limiting in a tropical forested wetland. LE and H show little variability across seasons in the study ecosystem, with LE values on the order of 11 MJ m^-2 day and H on the order of 3 MJ m^-2 day^-1. Annual evapotranspiration (ET) did not differ among years and averaged 1579 ± 47 mm year^-1. LE exceeded characteristic values from other tropical rainforest ecosystems in the FLUXNET2015 database with the exception of GF-Guy near coastal French Guyana, which averaged 8-11 MJ m^-2 day^-1. The Bowen ratio (Bo) in tropical rainforests in the FLUXNET2015 database either exhibited little seasonal trend, one seasonal peak, or two peaks. Volumetric water content (VWC) and VPD explained a trivial amount of the variability of LE and Bo in some of the tropical rainforests including the study ecosystem, but were strong controls in others, suggesting differences in stomatal regulation and/or the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration. Results demonstrate important differences in the seasonal patterns in water and energy exchange across different tropical rainforest ecosystems that need to be understood to quantify how ongoing changes in tropical rainforest extent will impact the global climate system.

Evapotranspiration of the Brazilian Pampa Biome: Seasonality and Influential Factors

Experimentally characterizing evapotranspiration (ET) in different biomes around the world is an issue of interest for different areas of science. ET in natural areas of the Brazilian Pampa biome has still not been assessed. In this study, the actual ET (ETact) obtained from eddy covariance measurements over two sites of the Pampa biome was analyzed. The objective was to evaluate the energy partition and seasonal variability of the actual ET of the Pampa biome. Results showed that the latent heat flux was the dominant component in available energy in both the autumn–winter (AW) and spring–summer (SS) periods. Evapotranspiration of the Pampa biome showed strong seasonality, with highest ET rates in the SS period. During the study period, approximately 65% of the net radiation was used for the evapotranspiration process in the Pampa biome. The annual mean ET rate was 2.45 mm d−1. ET did not show to vary significantly between sites, with daily values very similar in both sites. The water availability in the Pampa biome was not a limiting factor for ET, which resulted in a small difference between the reference ET and the actual ET. These results are helpful in achieving a better understanding of the temporal pattern of ET in relation to the landscape of the Pampa biome and its meteorological, soil, and vegetation characteristics.

Ecosystem-scale methane flux in tropical peat swamp forest in Indonesia

Data on ecosystem-scale methane (CH₄ ) fluxes in tropical peatlands are currently lacking in the global CH₄ budget. Although the waterlogged Indonesian peatlands contain the largest share of peat carbon in South-East Asia, ecosystem-scale CH₄ budgets have not yet been reported, although these peatlands have the potential to emit CH₄ . We observed 1-year variations in the ecosystem-scale CH₄ flux in an undrained secondary peat swamp forest in central Kalimantan, Indonesia, using the eddy covariance method. We found that the peat swamp forest switched from being a CH₄ sink during the dry season (as low as -8.9 mg C m^-2  day^-1 ) to a source of CH₄ during the wet season (up to 10.7 mg C m^-2  day^-1 ), and this was dependent on changes in the groundwater level (GWL). The high GWL during the wet season enhanced the anaerobic CH₄ production in the surface layer that had more labile organic matter. However, the CH₄ emission also increased when the GWL dropped during dry spells in the wet season. The annual CH₄ budget in the studied tropical peat swamp forest (0.09-0.17 g C m^-2  year^-1 ) was much lower than that in northern, temperate, and subtropical wetlands. We found that CH₄ fluxes had almost no effect on the global warming gas budget of the peat swamp forest, and values were only a few percent less than the CO₂ fluxes at the same site. In addition, we conducted anaerobic soil incubation experiments to examine the effect of land-use change on CH₄ production. The results indicated much higher CH₄ production potential in undrained forest soil than in drained or drained and burned ex-forest soils. However, although CH₄ production decreased in drained soils relative to undrained soils, conserving pristine peat swamp forests with high GWLs is important to suppress global warming because CO₂ emissions increase in drained peatlands.

Climate Sensitivity of Tropical Trees Along an Elevation Gradient in Rwanda

Elevation gradients offer excellent opportunities to explore the climate sensitivity of vegetation. Here, we investigated elevation patterns of structural, chemical, and physiological traits in tropical tree species along a 1700–2700 m elevation gradient in Rwanda, central Africa. Two early-successional (Polyscias fulva, Macaranga kilimandscharica) and two late-successional (Syzygium guineense, Carapa grandiflora) species that are abundant in the area and present along the entire gradient were investigated. We found that elevation patterns in leaf stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E), net photosynthesis (An), and water-use efficiency were highly season-dependent. In the wet season, there was no clear variation in gs or An with elevation, while E was lower at cooler high-elevation sites. In the dry season, gs, An, and E were all lower at drier low elevation sites. The leaf-to-air temperature difference was smallest in P. fulva, which also had the highest gs and E. Water-use efficiency (An/E) increased with elevation in the wet season, but not in the dry season. Leaf nutrient ratios indicated that trees at all sites are mostly P limited and the N:P ratio did not decrease with increasing elevation. Our finding of strongly decreased gas exchange at lower sites in the dry season suggests that both transpiration and primary production would decline in a climate with more pronounced dry periods. Furthermore, we showed that N limitation does not increase with elevation in the forests studied, as otherwise most commonly reported for tropical montane forests.

Modelling the Effects of Historical and Future Land Cover Changes on the Hydrology of an Amazonian Basin

Land cover changes (LCC) affect the water balance (WB), changing surface runoff (SurfQ), evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater (GW) regimes, and streamflow (Q). The Tapajós Basin (southeastern Amazon) has experienced LCC over the last 40 years, with increasing LCC rates projected for the near future. Several studies have addressed the effects of climate changes on the region’s hydrology, but few have explored the effects of LCC on its hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to model the LCC effects on the hydrology of the Upper Crepori River Basin (medium Tapajós Basin), using historical and projected LCC based on conservation policies (GOV_2050) and on the “Business as Usual” trend (BAU_2050). LCC that occurred from 1973 to 2012, increased Q by 2.5%, without noticeably altering the average annual WB. The future GOV_2050 and BAU_2050 scenarios increased SurfQ by 238.87% and 300.90%, and Q by 2.53% and 2.97%, respectively, and reduced GW by 4.00% and 5.21%, and ET by 2.07% and 2.43%, respectively. Results suggest that the increase in deforestation will intensify floods and low-flow events, and that the conservation policies considered in the GOV_2050 scenario may still compromise the region’s hydrology at a comparable level to that of the BAU_2050.

Evapotranspiration and water source of a tropical rainforest in peninsular Malaysia

To evaluate water use and the supporting water source of a tropical rainforest, a 4-year assessment of evapotranspiration (ET) was conducted in Pasoh Forest Reserve, a lowland dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia. The eddy covariance method and isotope signals of rain, plant, soil, and stream waters were used to determine forest water sources under different moisture conditions. Four sampling events were conducted to collect soil and plant twig samples in wet, moderate, dry, and very dry conditions for the identification of isotopic signals. Annual ET from 2012 to 2015 was quite stable with an average of 1,182 ± 26 mm, and a substantial daily ET was observed even during drought periods, although some decline was observed, corresponding with volumetric soil water content. During the wet period, water for ET was supplied from the surface soil layer between 0 and 0.5 m, whereas in the dry period, approximately 50% to 90% was supplied from the deeper soil layer below 0.5-m depth, originating from water precipitated several months previously at this forest. Isotope signatures demonstrated that the water sources of the plants, soil, and stream were all different. Water in plants was often different from soil water, probably because plant water came from a different source than water that was strongly bound to the soil particles. Plants showed no preference for soil depth with their size, whereas the existence of storage water in the xylem was suggested. The evapotranspiration at this forest is balanced and maintained using most of the available water sources except for a proportion of rapid response run-off.

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of other fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, 'soil water stress' and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (R_e ) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and R_e consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. Correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.

Hourly interaction between wind speed and energy fluxes in Brazilian Wetlands - Mato Grosso - Brazil

Matter and energy flux dynamics of wetlands are important to understand environmental processes that govern biosphere-atmosphere interactions across ecosystems. This study presents analyses about hourly interaction between wind speed and energy fluxes in Brazilian Wetlands - Mato Grosso - Brazil. This study was conducted in Private Reserve of Natural Heritage (PRNH SESC, 16º39'50''S; 56º47'50''W) in Brazilian Wetland. According to Curado et al. (2012), the wet season occurs between the months of January and April, while the June to September time period is the dry season. Results presented same patterns in energies fluxes in all period studied. Wind speed and air temperature presented same patterns, while LE was relative humidity presented inverse patterns of the air temperature. LE was predominant in all seasons and the sum of LE and H was above 90% of net radiation. Analyses of linear regression presented positive interactions between wind speed and LE, and wind speed and H in all seasons, except in dry season of 2010. Confidence coefficient regression analyses present statistical significance in all wet and dry seasons, except dry season of 2010, suggest that LE and H had interaction with other micrometeorological variables.

Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia

In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001–December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance.

Large-scale degradation of Amazonian freshwater ecosystems

Hydrological connectivity regulates the structure and function of Amazonian freshwater ecosystems and the provisioning of services that sustain local populations. This connectivity is increasingly being disrupted by the construction of dams, mining, land-cover changes, and global climate change. This review analyzes these drivers of degradation, evaluates their impacts on hydrological connectivity, and identifies policy deficiencies that hinder freshwater ecosystem protection. There are 154 large hydroelectric dams in operation today, and 21 dams under construction. The current trajectory of dam construction will leave only three free-flowing tributaries in the next few decades if all 277 planned dams are completed. Land-cover changes driven by mining, dam and road construction, agriculture and cattle ranching have already affected ~20% of the Basin and up to ~50% of riparian forests in some regions. Global climate change will likely exacerbate these impacts by creating warmer and dryer conditions, with less predictable rainfall and more extreme events (e.g., droughts and floods). The resulting hydrological alterations are rapidly degrading freshwater ecosystems, both independently and via complex feedbacks and synergistic interactions. The ecosystem impacts include biodiversity loss, warmer stream temperatures, stronger and more frequent floodplain fires, and changes to biogeochemical cycles, transport of organic and inorganic materials, and freshwater community structure and function. The impacts also include reductions in water quality, fish yields, and availability of water for navigation, power generation, and human use. This degradation of Amazonian freshwater ecosystems cannot be curbed presently because existing policies are inconsistent across the Basin, ignore cumulative effects, and overlook the hydrological connectivity of freshwater ecosystems. Maintaining the integrity of these freshwater ecosystems requires a basinwide research and policy framework to understand and manage hydrological connectivity across multiple spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries.

Evapotranspiration of tropical peat swamp forests

In Southeast Asia, peatland is widely distributed and has accumulated a massive amount of soil carbon, coexisting with peat swamp forest (PSF). The peatland, however, has been rapidly degraded by deforestation, fires, and drainage for the last two decades. Such disturbances change hydrological conditions, typically groundwater level (GWL), and accelerate oxidative peat decomposition. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major determinant of GWL, whereas information on the ET of PSF is limited. Therefore, we measured ET using the eddy covariance technique for 4-6 years between 2002 and 2009, including El Niño and La Niña events, at three sites in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The sites were different in disturbance degree: a PSF with little drainage (UF), a heavily drained PSF (DF), and a drained burnt ex-PSF (DB); GWL was significantly lowered at DF, especially in the dry season. The ET showed a clear seasonal variation with a peak in the mid-dry season and a large decrease in the late dry season, mainly following seasonal variation in net radiation (Rn ). The Rn drastically decreased with dense smoke from peat fires in the late dry season. Annual ET forced to close energy balance for 4 years was 1636 ± 53, 1553 ± 117, and 1374 ± 75 mm yr(-1) (mean ± 1 standard deviation), respectively, at UF, DF, and DB. The undrained PSF (UF) had high and rather stable annual ET, independently of El Niño and La Niña events, in comparison with other tropical rainforests. The minimum monthly-mean GWL explained 80% of interannual variation in ET for the forest sites (UF and DF); the positive relationship between ET and GWL indicates that drainage by a canal decreased ET at DF through lowering GWL. In addition, ET was decreased by 16% at DB in comparison with UF chiefly because of vegetation loss through fires.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests

Extreme climatic events and land-use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean decreased the Brazilian Amazon's deforestation contribution to global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from +0.11 to +0.21) Pg C year(-1) in the Brazilian Amazon, equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land-use change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years [NBP = -0.06 (-0.31 to +0.01) Pg C year(-1) ]. Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% of global land-use change emissions. We conclude that a few strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink to future increases in drought frequency.

Variability of carbon and water fluxes following climate extremes over a tropical forest in southwestern Amazonia

The carbon and water cycles for a southwestern Amazonian forest site were investigated using the longest time series of fluxes of CO2 and water vapor ever reported for this site. The period from 2004 to 2010 included two severe droughts (2005 and 2010) and a flooding year (2009). The effects of such climate extremes were detected in annual sums of fluxes as well as in other components of the carbon and water cycles, such as gross primary production and water use efficiency. Gap-filling and flux-partitioning were applied in order to fill gaps due to missing data, and errors analysis made it possible to infer the uncertainty on the carbon balance. Overall, the site was found to have a net carbon uptake of ≈5 t C ha(-1) year(-1), but the effects of the drought of 2005 were still noticed in 2006, when the climate disturbance caused the site to become a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Different regions of the Amazon forest might respond differently to climate extremes due to differences in dry season length, annual precipitation, species compositions, albedo and soil type. Longer time series of fluxes measured over several locations are required to better characterize the effects of climate anomalies on the carbon and water balances for the whole Amazon region. Such valuable datasets can also be used to calibrate biogeochemical models and infer on future scenarios of the Amazon forest carbon balance under the influence of climate change.

Simulating forest productivity along a neotropical elevational transect: temperature variation and carbon use efficiency

A better understanding of the mechanisms controlling the magnitude and sign of carbon components in tropical forest ecosystems is important for reliable estimation of this important regional component of the global carbon cycle. We used the JULES vegetation model to simulate all components of the carbon balance at six sites along an Andes-Amazon transect across Peru and Brazil and compared the results to published field measurements. In the upper montane zone the model predicted a lack of forest vegetation, indicating a need for better parameterization of the responses of cloud forest vegetation within the model. In the lower montane and lowland zones simulated ecosystem productivity and respiration were predicted with reasonable accuracy, although not always within the error bounds of the observations. Model-predicted carbon use efficiency in this transect surprisingly did not increase with elevation, but remained close to the 'temperate' value 0.5. Upper montane forests were predicted to allocate ~50% of carbon fixation to biomass maintenance and growth, despite available measurements showing that they only allocate ~33%. This may be explained by elevational changes in the balance between growth and maintenance respiration within the forest canopy, as controlled by both temperature- and pressure-mediated processes, which is not yet well represented in current vegetation models.

Performance evaluation of the SITE® model to estimate energy flux in a tropical semi-deciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin

The SITE® model was originally developed to study the response of tropical ecosystems to varying environmental conditions. The present study evaluated the applicability of the SITE model to simulation of energy fluxes in a tropical semi-deciduous forest of the southern Amazon Basin. The model was simulated with data representing the wet and dry season, and was calibrated according to each season. The output data of the calibrated model [net radiation (Rn), latent heat flux (LE) and sensible heat flux (H)] were compared with data observed in the field for validation. Considering changes in parameter calibration for a time step simulation of 30 min, the magnitude of variation in temporal flux was satisfactory when compared to observation field data. There was a tendency to underestimate and overestimate LE and H, respectively. Of all the calibration parameters, the soil moisture parameter presented the highest variation over the seasons, thus influencing SITE model performance.

Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet

The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress, which also adequately describe the current distribution of other biomes within the tropics. As a first-order approximation of the potential extent of HTFs in future climate regimes defined by global warming of 2°C and 4°C, we investigate changes in the niche through a combination of climate-change anomaly patterns and higher resolution (5 km) maps of current climatology. The climate anomalies are derived using data from 17 coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our results confirm some risk of forest retreat, especially in eastern Amazonia, Central America and parts of Africa, but also indicate a potential for expansion in other regions, for example around the Congo Basin. The finer spatial scale enabled the depiction of potential resilient and vulnerable zones with practically useful detail. We further refine these estimates by considering the impact of new environmental regimes on plant water demand using the UK Met Office land-surface scheme (of the HadCM3 AOGCM). The CO(2)-related reduction in plant water demand lowers the risk of die-back and can lead to possible niche expansion in many regions. The analysis presented here focuses primarily on hydrological determinants of HTF extent. We conclude by discussing the role of other factors, notably the physiological effects of higher temperature.

Drought impacts on the Amazon forest: the remote sensing perspective

Drought varies spatially and temporally throughout the Amazon basin, challenging efforts to assess ecological impacts via field measurements alone. Remote sensing offers a range of regional insights into drought-mediated changes in cloud cover and rainfall, canopy physiology, and fire. Here, we summarize remote sensing studies of Amazônia which indicate that: fires and burn scars are more common during drought years; hydrological function including floodplain area is significantly affected by drought; and land use affects the sensitivity of the forest to dry conditions and increases fire susceptibility during drought. We highlight two controversial areas of research centering on canopy physiological responses to drought and changes in subcanopy fires during drought. By comparing findings from field and satellite studies, we contend that current remote sensing observations and techniques cannot resolve these controversies using current satellite observations. We conclude that studies integrating multiple lines of evidence from physiological, disturbance-fire, and hydrological remote sensing, as well as field measurements, are critically needed to narrow our uncertainty of basin-level responses to drought and climate change.

Trends in entropy production during ecosystem development in the Amazon Basin

Understanding successional trends in energy and matter exchange across the ecosystem-atmosphere boundary layer is an essential focus in ecological research; however, a general theory describing the observed pattern remains elusive. This paper examines whether the principle of maximum entropy production could provide the solution. A general framework is developed for calculating entropy production using data from terrestrial eddy covariance and micrometeorological studies. We apply this framework to data from eight tropical forest and pasture flux sites in the Amazon Basin and show that forest sites had consistently higher entropy production rates than pasture sites (0.461 versus 0.422 W m(-2) K(-1), respectively). It is suggested that during development, changes in canopy structure minimize surface albedo, and development of deeper root systems optimizes access to soil water and thus potential transpiration, resulting in lower surface temperatures and increased entropy production. We discuss our results in the context of a theoretical model of entropy production versus ecosystem developmental stage. We conclude that, although further work is required, entropy production could potentially provide a much-needed theoretical basis for understanding the effects of deforestation and land-use change on the land-surface energy balance.

Water recycling by Amazonian vegetation: coupled versus uncoupled vegetation-climate interactions

To demonstrate the relationship between Amazonian vegetation and surface water dynamics, specifically, the recycling of water via evapotranspiration (ET), we compare two general circulation model experiments; one that couples the IS92a scenario of future CO₂ emissions to a land-surface scheme with dynamic vegetation (coupled) and the other to fixed vegetation (uncoupled). Because the only difference between simulations involves vegetation coupling, any alterations to surface energy and water balance must be due to vegetation feedbacks. The proportion of water recycled back to the atmosphere is relatively conserved through time for both experiments. Absolute value of recycled water is lower in our coupled relative to our uncoupled simulation as a result of increasing atmospheric CO₂ that in turn promotes lowering of stomatal conductance and increase in water-use efficiency. Bowen ratio increases with decreasing per cent broadleaf cover, with the greatest rate of change occurring at high vegetation cover (above 70% broadleaf cover). Over the duration of the climate change simulation, precipitation is reduced by an extra 30% in the coupled relative to the uncoupled simulations. Lifting condensation level (proxy for base height of cumulus cloud formation) is 520 m higher in our coupled relative to uncoupled simulations.

Evidence from Amazonian forests is consistent with isohydric control of leaf water potential

Climate modelling studies predict that the rain forests of the Eastern Amazon basin are likely to experience reductions in rainfall of up to 50% over the next 50-100 years. Efforts to predict the effects of changing climate, especially drought stress, on forest gas exchange are currently limited by uncertainty about the mechanism that controls stomatal closure in response to low soil moisture. At a through-fall exclusion experiment in Eastern Amazonia where water was experimentally excluded from the soil, we tested the hypothesis that plants are isohydric, that is, when water is scarce, the stomata act to prevent leaf water potential from dropping below a critical threshold level. We made diurnal measurements of leaf water potential (psi 1), stomatal conductance (g(s)), sap flow and stem water potential (psi stem) in the wet and dry seasons. We compared the data with the predictions of the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model, which embeds the isohydric hypothesis within its stomatal conductance algorithm. The model inputs for meteorology, leaf area index (LAI), soil water potential and soil-to-leaf hydraulic resistance (R) were altered between seasons in accordance with measured values. No optimization parameters were used to adjust the model. This 'mechanistic' model of stomatal function was able to explain the individual tree-level seasonal changes in water relations (r2 = 0.85, 0.90 and 0.58 for psi 1, sap flow and g(s), respectively). The model indicated that the measured increase in R was the dominant cause of restricted water use during the dry season, resulting in a modelled restriction of sap flow four times greater than that caused by reduced soil water potential. Higher resistance during the dry season resulted from an increase in below-ground resistance (including root and soil-to-root resistance) to water flow.