Long-term remote sensing-based methods for monitoring air pollution and cloud cover in the Balkan countries

The use of remote sensing and GIS methodology has accelerated the processing of data on pollution, but has also raised a question about the accuracy of the same. The research focuses on four main air pollutants (CO, NO, SO2, O3), the data on which were obtained from satellite images of Landsat 8 and Landsat 9, for the period 2000-2020. The data on relative cloudiness were obtained from the database CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) for the period 1980-2010. All the data were further processed and analyzed through the procedures of numerical GIS analysis, multi-criteria analysis, supervised and unsupervised satellite classification, and pixel analysis. The results of the analysis of cloud cover in the Balkan region showed that the month with the highest cloud cover in this period was February, with the maximum of (93.18%), whereas the lowest cloud cover was in July (0.19%). The analyzed period (2000-2010) was in the middle range for the pollutants NO and SO2 and in the lower range for CO; O3. In the period 2010-2020, there were high concentrations of NO, SO2, and CO and low concentrations of O3. The most polluted cities in the last twenty years are Ordu (Turkey), Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), and Bor (Serbia). Finally, two most extreme air pollutants in the territory of Balkan countries were SO2 and NO (2000-2020).

Seasonal, Weekly, and Diurnal Black Carbon in Moscow Megacity Background under Impact of Urban and Regional Sources

Moscow megacity has a big gap in assessment of air quality, resulting in severe aerosol pollution. Black carbon (BC) concentrations over different timescales, including weekly and diurnal, are studied during four seasons of 2019–2020 at urban background site. Seasonal BC varies from 0.9 to 25.5 μg/m3 with a mean of 1.7 ± 1.4 μg/m3. Maximum mean BC equal to 2.2 ± 1.8 μg/m3 was observed in spring. Diurnal trends of black carbon concentrations differ in spring/summer and autumn/winter periods, they exhibit morning and evening peaks corresponding to traffic combined with the boundary layer height effect. The weekly cycle of BC characterizes the highest amount of combustion-related pollution on working days and the characteristics of population migration from a city for weekend. Seasonal pollution roses show the direction of the highest BC contamination. For identification of BC sources relating to traffic, heat and power plants, and industry around the site, polar plots are used. The spectral dependence of the aerosol light attenuation provides the estimate for Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE). We use the AAE above 1.3 and high frequency of AAE observation above 1 in order to support the assessment for a contribution of biomass burning in the region around Moscow in autumn and winter as well as of agriculture fires and wildfires in warm seasons. Air masses arriving to a city from fire-affected regions in spring and summer impact urban air pollution.

Retrieval of Black Carbon Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth from AERONET Observations over the World during 2000–2018

Black carbon (BC) absorption aerosol optical depth (AAODBC) defines the contribution of BC in light absorption and is retrievable using sun/sky radiometer measurements provided by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) inversion products. In this study, we utilized AERONET-retrieved depolarization ratio (DPR, δp), single scattering albedo (SSA, ω), and Ångström Exponent (AE, å) of version 3 level 2.0 products as indicators to estimate the contribution of BC to the absorbing fractions of AOD. We applied our methodology to the AERONET sites, including North and South America, Europe, East Asia, Africa, India, and the Middle East, during 2000–2018. The long-term AAODBC showed a downward tendency over Sao Paulo (−0.001 year−1), Thessaloniki (−0.0004 year−1), Beijing (−0.001 year−1), Seoul (−0.0015 year−1), and Cape Verde (−0.0009 year−1) with the highest values over the populous sites. This declining tendency in AAODBC can be attributable to the successful emission control policies over these sites, particularly in Europe, America, and China. The AAODBC at the Beijing, Sao Paulo, Mexico City, and the Indian sites showed a clear seasonality indicating the notable role of residential heating in BC emissions over these sites during winter. We found a higher correlation between AAODBC and fine mode AOD at 440 nm at all sites except for Beijing. High pollution episodes, BC emission from different sources, and aggregation properties seem to be the main drivers of higher AAODBC correlation with coarse particles over Beijing.

Evolution of Aerosol Optical Properties from Wood Smoke in Real Atmosphere Influenced by Burning Phase and Solar Radiation

Emissions of light-absorbing black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA) from biomass burning are presented as complex mixtures, which introduce challenges in modeling their absorbing properties. In this study, we chose typical residential wood burning emission and used a novel designed chamber to investigate the early stage evolution of plumes from different burning phases under real ambient conditions. The detailed mixing state between BC and OA was evaluated, on the basis of which optical modeling was performed to achieve a closure of aerosol-absorbing properties. Intensive secondary OA (SOA) formation was observed under solar radiation. OA from flaming conditions showed a higher absorptivity than from smoldering conditions, as OA is mostly internally and externally mixed with BC, respectively. For flaming (smoldering), the imaginary refractive index of OA (k_OA) was initially at 0.03 ± 0.01 (0.001) and 0.15 ± 0.02 (0.05 ± 0.02) at λ = 781 and 405 nm, respectively, with a half-decay time of 2-3 h in light but a <40% decrease under dark within 5 h. The production of less-absorbing SOA in the first 1-2 h and possible subsequent photobleaching of chromophores contributed to the decrease of k_OA. The enhanced abundance but decreased absorptivity of coatings on BC resulted in a relatively maintainable absorptivity of BC-containing particles during evolution.

Multi-year characterization of aerosol black carbon concentrations over a semiarid tropical site Udaipur

Continuous and multi-year (2008-2012) measurements of black carbon (BC) mass concentrations (M_BC), carried out from the semiarid tropical site Udaipur (24.6° N, 74° E, 580 m a.s.l.) near the western Indian desert, are analyzed for their region-specific features. M_BC varied over a wide range during the period of study, with the hourly mean values occurring as low as 0.09 to as high as 49.1 μg m^-3, with the multi-year average ~ 4.5 ± 2.6 μg m^-3. Annual variations showed the highest concentrations during November and December (winter seasonal mean = 7.4 ± 3.3 μg m^-3) and the lowest in the monsoon months of July and August (monsoon seasonal mean = 2.5 ± 2.2 μg m^-3). M_BC showed significant inverse relationship with the planetary boundary layer height (ρ ~ - 0.50) as well as ventilation coefficient (ρ ~ - 0.72). Alike aforesaid atmospheric dynamic parameters, T, WS, and RH also possessed statistically significant negative correlations with monthly M_BC. Enhancement in annual as well as diurnal amplitude in M_BC during deficient monsoon years relative to excessive monsoon years have given marked indication of BC sink mechanism due to precipitation. Roles of long-range regional air pollutant transport also have been identified. Identical and consistent seasonal variation in percentage contribution of M_BC with PM_2.5 (varying from 2.6 to 9.1%) and absorption Angstrom exponent (α_abs, monthly mean values varying from 0.77 ± 0.04 to 1.16 ± 0.08) gives evidence of substantial amount of enhanced anthropogenic source activities of fossil fuel incomplete combustion in post-monsoon and winter period.

Source apportionment of absorption enhancement of black carbon in different environments of China

Black carbon (BC) is an important pollutant for both air quality and earth's radiation balance because of its strong absorption enhancement. The enhanced light absorption of BC caused by other pollutants is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in global radiative forcing. The light absorption of BC is highly dependent on the emission source and very few studies have been carried out for the source apportionment of BC absorption enhancement. Thus, with this objective, continuous measurements of particulate matter (PM_2.5) were performed at three different sites: a traffic site in Nanjing, an urban site in Jinan, and a rural site in Yucheng; the BC absorption enhancement and its source contributions were determined. The mass absorption cross-section (MAC) of BC aerosols was reduced after the removal of the coating material. The maximum MAC enhancement (E_MAC) was found to be 2.25 ± 0.5 at the rural site, followed by 2.07 ± 0.7 at the urban site and 1.7 ± 0.6 at the traffic site, suggesting an approximately double enhancement in BC absorption due to different coating materials. The source apportionment of absorption enhancement of BC analysis using the positive matrix factorization model suggests five major emission sources. Among them, secondary sources were the main source of E_MAC at all the three sites with a percentage contribution of 43.4% (rural site), 34.6% (traffic site), and 31% (urban site). However, other emission sources, such as biomass burning (21.1% at rural site) and vehicular emissions (33.8% at traffic site) also had a significant contribution to E_MAC, suggesting that there could be large variations in BC absorption enhancement due to differences in emission sources together with aerosol aging processes.

Investigation of black carbon climate effects in the Arctic in winter and spring

Black carbon (BC) exerts a potential influence on climate, especially in the Arctic, where the environment is very sensitive to climate change. Therefore, the study of climate effects of BC in this region is particularly important. In this study, numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in the Arctic in winter and spring for two years to investigate the atmospheric BC causing changes in surface radiation, meteorology, and atmospheric stability. Generally, WRF-Chem well reproduced the temporal variations of meteorological variables and BC concentration. Numerical simulations showed that BC concentrations in the Arctic in winter were mostly higher than those in spring, and the BC-induced near-surface temperature changes were also stronger. The effects of BC on near-surface water vapor mixing ratio were consistent with the spatial pattern of near-surface temperature changes. That was probably the result of the regional circulation anomaly due to the temperature changes. Additionally, the distributions of near-surface temperature changes and horizontal wind changes also reflected in the distribution of planetary boundary layer height. Ultimately, this study revealed that the downward longwave radiation related to cloudiness changes played an important role for driving near-surface temperature in the Arctic in winter. While in spring, the relatively less changes in near-surface temperature may be the result of the mutual compensation between the surface longwave and shortwave radiation effects.

Carbonaceous Aerosols in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 Size Fractions over the Lanzhou City, Northwest China

Carbonaceous particles have been confirmed as major components of ambient aerosols in urban environments and are related to climate impacts and environmental and health effects. In this study, we collected different-size particulate matter (PM) samples (PM1, PM2.5, and PM10) at an urban site in Lanzhou, northwest China, during three discontinuous one-month periods (January, April, and July) of 2019. We measured the concentrations and potential transport pathways of carbonaceous aerosols in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 size fractions. The average concentrations of OC (organic carbon) and EC (elemental carbon) in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 were 6.98 ± 3.71 and 2.11 ± 1.34 μg/m3, 8.6 ± 5.09 and 2.55 ± 1.44 μg/m3, and 11.6 ± 5.72 and 4.01 ± 1.72 μg/m3. The OC and EC concentrations in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 had similar seasonal trends, with higher values in winter due to the favorable meteorology for accumulating pollutants and urban-increased emissions from heating. Precipitation played a key role in scavenge pollutants, resulting in lower OC and EC concentrations in summer. The OC/EC ratios and principal component analysis (PCA) showed that the dominant pollution sources of carbon components in the PMs in Lanzhou were biomass burning, coal combustion, and diesel and gasoline vehicle emissions; and the backward trajectory and concentration weight trajectory (CWT) analysis further suggested that the primary pollution source of EC in Lanzhou was local fossil fuel combustion.

Particle Size and Mixing State of Freshly Emitted Black Carbon from Different Combustion Sources in China

Modeling studies have highlighted that accurate simulations of radiative effect of black carbon (BC) require knowledge about the particle size and mixing state of freshly emitted BC from combustion sources. However, the information is absent in China due to lack of available measurements. In this study, we present the particle size and mixing state of fresh BC emitted from diesel vehicles (DV), brick kilns (BK), residential crop residue burnings (CR), and residential firewood burnings (FW) in September-October 2014 at North China Plain by field measurement. The mass median diameters of BC cores (whole particles including cores and coatings) above the limit of measurement (i.e., > 70 nm) from these sources are ∼155 (∼194), ∼230 (∼306), ∼250 (∼438) and ∼273 (∼426) nm, respectively, and corresponding size ratios (i.e., mixing state) are ∼1.25, ∼1.33, ∼1.75, and ∼1.56, respectively. Compared with the values commonly used in model based on the laboratory experiments and the field measurements in developed countries, larger particle sizes and higher mixing sate of freshly emitted BC in China may enhance their light absorption and cloud condensation nuclei activities during atmospheric transport. The available data could be used to improve future model development on radiative effect of BC in China.

One-Year Measurements of Equivalent Black Carbon, Optical Properties, and Sources in the Urumqi River Valley, Tien Shan, China

Equivalent black carbon (EBC) was measured with a seven-wavelength Aethalometer (AE-31) in the Urumqi River Valley, eastern Tien Shan, China. This is the first high-resolution, online measurement of EBC conducted in the eastern Tien Shan allowing analysis of the seasonal and hourly variations of the light absorption properties of EBC. Results showed that the highest concentrations of EBC were in autumn, followed by those in summer. The hourly variations of EBC showed two plateaus during 8:00–9:00 h local time (LT) and 16:00–19:00 h LT, respectively. The contribution of biomass burning to EBC in winter and spring was higher than in summer and autumn. The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) showed an inverse relationship with EBC concentrations, suggesting that the reduction of the PBLH leads to enhanced EBC. The aerosol optical depths (AOD) over the Urumqi River Valley, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and back trajectory analysis, showed that the pollution from Central Asia was more likely to affect the atmosphere of Tien Shan in summer and autumn. This suggests that long-distance transported pollutants from Central Asia could also be potential contributors to EBC concentrations in the Urumqi River Valley, the same as local anthropogenic activities.

Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?

The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&D is less important. These recommendations are contextualised through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions.

Changes in black carbon and PM2.5 in Tokyo in 2003-2017

Black carbon (BC) particles cause adverse health effects and contribute to the heating of the atmosphere by absorbing visible solar radiation. Efforts have been made to reduce BC emissions, especially in urban areas; however, long-term measurements of BC mass concentration (M_BC) are very limited in Japan. We report M_BC measurements conducted in Tokyo from 2003 to 2017, showing that M_BC decreased by a factor of 3 from 2003 to 2010 and was stable from 2010 to 2017. Fine particulate concentrations (PM_2.5) decreased by a much smaller factor during 2003-2010. The diurnal variations of BC size distributions suggest that the BC in Tokyo originates mainly from local sources, even after 2010. Our three-dimensional model calculations show that BC from the Asian continent contributes a small portion (about 20%) of the annual average M_BC in the Kanto region of Japan, which includes Tokyo. This indicates that continued reduction of BC emissions inside Japan should be effective in further decreasing M_BC.

Fine Particle Emissions from Sauna Stoves: Effects of Combustion Appliance and Fuel, and Implications for the Finnish Emission Inventory

Sauna Stoves (SS) are simple wood combustion appliances used mainly in Nordic countries. They generate emissions that have an impact on air quality and climate. In this study, a new measurement concept for comparing the operation, thermal efficiency, and real-life fine particle and gaseous emissions of SS was utilized. In addition, a novel, simple, and universal emission calculation procedure for the determination of nominal emission factors was developed for which the equations are presented for the first time. Fine particle and gaseous concentrations from 10 different types of SS were investigated. It was found that each SS model was an individual in relation to stove performance: stove heating time, air-to-fuel ratio, thermal efficiency, and emissions. Nine-fold differences in fine particle mass (PM1) concentrations, and about 90-fold differences in concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were found between the SS, when dry (11% moisture content) birch wood was used. By using moist (18%) wood, particle number and carbon monoxide concentrations increased, but interestingly, PM1, PAH, and black carbon (BC) concentrations clearly decreased, when comparing to dry wood. E.g., PAH concentrations were 5.5–9.6 times higher with dry wood than with moist wood. Between wood species, 2–3-fold maximum differences in the emissions were found, whereas about 1.5-fold differences were observed between bark-containing and debarked wood logs. On average, the emissions measured in this study were considerably lower than in previous studies and emission inventories. This suggests that overall the designs of sauna stoves available on the market have improved during the 2010s. The findings of this study were used to update the calculation scheme behind the inventories, causing the estimates for total PM emissions from SS in Finland to decrease. However, wood-fired sauna stoves are still estimated to be the highest individual emission source of fine particles and black carbon in Finland.

A Review of the Representation of Aerosol Mixing State in Atmospheric Models

Aerosol mixing state significantly affects concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), wet removal rates, thermodynamic properties, heterogeneous chemistry, and aerosol optical properties, with implications for human health and climate. Over the last two decades, significant research effort has gone into finding computationally-efficient methods for representing the most important aspects of aerosol mixing state in air pollution, weather prediction, and climate models. In this review, we summarize the interactions between mixing-state and aerosol hygroscopicity, optical properties, equilibrium thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemistry. We focus on the effects of simplified assumptions of aerosol mixing state on CCN concentrations, wet deposition, and aerosol absorption. We also summarize previous approaches for representing aerosol mixing state in atmospheric models, and we make recommendations regarding the representation of aerosol mixing state in future modelling studies.

Chemical Composition of Aerosol over the Arctic Ocean from Summer ARctic EXpedition (AREX) 2011–2012 Cruises: Ions, Amines, Elemental Carbon, Organic Matter, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, n-Alkanes, Metals, and Rare Earth Elements

During the summers of 2011 and 2012, two scientific cruises were carried out over the Arctic Ocean aiming at the determination of the aerosol chemical composition in this pristine environment. First, mass spectrometry was applied to study the concentration and gas/particle partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and n-alkanes. Experimental and modelled data of phase partitioning were compared: results demonstrated an equilibrium between gas and particle phase for PAHs, while n-alkanes showed a particle-oriented partitioning, due to the local marine origin of them, confirmed by the extremely low value of their carbon preference index. Moreover, the inorganic and organic ions (carboxylic acids and amines) concentrations, together with those of elemental carbon (EC) and organic matter (OM), were analyzed: 63% of aerosol was composed of ionic compounds (>90% from sea-salt) and the OM content was very high (30.5%; close to 29.0% of Cl−) in agreement with n-alkanes’ marine signature. Furthermore, the amines’ (dimethylamine, trimethylamine, diethylamine) concentrations were 3.98 ± 1.21, 1.70 ± 0.82, and 1.06 ± 0.56 p.p.t.v., respectively, fully in keeping with concentration values used in the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplet)-chamber experiments to simulate the ambient nucleation rate in a H2SO4-DMA-H2O system, showing the amines’ importance in polar regions to promote new particle formation. Finally, high resolution mass spectrometry was applied to determine trace elements, including Rare Earth Elements (REEs), highlighting the dominant natural versus anthropic inputs for trace metals (e.g., Fe, Mn, Ti vs. As, Cd, Ni) and possible signatures of such anthropic activity.

Aerosol Optical Properties and Climate Implications of Emissions from Traditional and Improved Cookstoves

Cookstove emissions are a major global source of black carbon but their impact on climate is uncertain because of limited understanding of their optical properties. We measured optical properties of fresh aerosol emissions from 32 different stove/fuel combinations, ranging from simple open fires to high-performing forced-draft stoves. Stoves were tested in the laboratory using the firepower sweep protocol, which measures emissions across the entire range of functional firepower. There is large variability in measured optical properties across the entire range of firepower. This variability is strongly correlated with black carbon-to-particulate matter mass ratio (BC/PM). In comparison, stove type, fuel, and operational metrics were poor predictors of optical properties. We developed parametrizations of the mass absorption cross-section, the absorption angstrom exponent, and the single scattering albedo of fresh emissions as a function of BC/PM. These parametrizations, derived from laboratory data, also reproduce previously reported field measurements of optical properties of real-world cooking emissions. We combined our new parametrizations of intensive optical properties with published emissions data to estimate the direct radiative effect of emissions for different stove technologies. Our data suggest that so-called "improved" stove reduce CO₂ equivalent emission (i.e., climate benefits) by 20-30% compared to traditional stoves.

Black carbon radiative effects highly sensitive to emitted particle size when resolving mixing-state diversity

Post-industrial increases in atmospheric black carbon (BC) have a large but uncertain warming contribution to Earth's climate. Particle size and mixing state determine the solar absorption efficiency of BC and also strongly influence how effectively BC is removed, but they have large uncertainties. Here we use a multiple-mixing-state global aerosol microphysics model and show that the sensitivity (range) of present-day BC direct radiative effect, due to current uncertainties in emission size distributions, is amplified 5-7 times (0.18-0.42 W m-2) when the diversity in BC mixing state is sufficiently resolved. This amplification is caused by the lifetime, core absorption, and absorption enhancement effects of BC, whose variability is underestimated by 45-70% in a single-mixing-state model representation. We demonstrate that reducing uncertainties in emission size distributions and how they change in the future, while also resolving modeled BC mixing state diversity, is now essential when evaluating BC radiative effects and the effectiveness of BC mitigation on future temperature changes.

Light Absorption Enhancement of Black Carbon Aerosol Constrained by Particle Morphology

The radiative forcing of black carbon aerosol (BC) is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate change assessments. Contrasting results of BC absorption enhancement ( E_abs) after aging are estimated by field measurements and modeling studies, causing ambiguous parametrizations of BC solar absorption in climate models. Here we quantify E_abs using a theoretical model parametrized by the complex particle morphology of BC in different aging scales. We show that E_abs continuously increases with aging and stabilizes with a maximum of ∼3.5, suggesting that previous seemingly contrast results of E_abs can be explicitly described by BC aging with corresponding particle morphology. We also report that current climate models using Mie Core-Shell model may overestimate E_abs at a certain aging stage with a rapid rise of E_abs, which is commonly observed in the ambient. A correction coefficient for this overestimation is suggested to improve model predictions of BC climate impact.

Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) Wm-2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 Wm-2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 Wm-2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small global warming of 0.47 K per Wm-2 - about 20 % lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

Characterizing Particulate Matter Exfiltration Estimates for Alternative Cookstoves in a Village-Like Household in Rural Nepal

Alternative stoves are an intervention option to reduce household air pollution. The amount of air pollution exiting homes when alternative stoves are utilized is not known. In this paper, particulate matter exfiltration estimates are presented for four types of alternative stoves within a village-like home, which was built to reflect the use of local materials and common size, in rural Nepal. Four alternative stoves with chimneys were examined, which included an alternative mud brick stove, original Envirofit G3355 model, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355, and locally altered Envirofit G3355. Multiple linear regression was utilized to determine estimates of PM2.5 exfiltration. Overall exfiltration fraction average (converted to a percent) for the four stoves were: alternative mud brick stove with chimney 56%, original Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 87%, manufacture altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%, and locally altered Envirofit G3355 model with chimney 69%. Alternative cookstoves resulted in higher overall average exfiltration due to direct and indirect ventilation relative to traditional, mud-based stoves. This contrast emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the climate and health implications that are believed to come from implementing alternative stoves on a large scale and the resultant shift of exposure burden from indoors to outdoors.

Field Measurements of Black Carbon Yields from Gas Flaring

Black carbon (BC) emissions from gas flaring in the oil and gas industry are postulated to have critical impacts on climate and public health, but actual emission rates remain poorly characterized. This paper presents in situ field measurements of BC emission rates and flare gas volume-specific BC yields for a diverse range of flares. Measurements were performed during a series of field campaigns in Mexico and Ecuador using the sky-LOSA optical measurement technique, in concert with comprehensive Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analyses. Parallel on-site measurements of flare gas flow rate and composition were successfully performed at a subset of locations enabling direct measurements of fuel-specific BC yields from flares under field conditions. Quantified BC emission rates from individual flares spanned more than 4 orders of magnitude (up to 53.7 g/s). In addition, emissions during one notable ∼24-h flaring event (during which the plume transmissivity dropped to zero) would have been even larger than this maximum rate, which was measured as this event was ending. This highlights the likely importance of superemitters to global emission inventories. Flare gas volume-specific BC yields were shown to be strongly correlated with flare gas heating value. A newly derived correlation fitting current field data and previous lab data suggests that, in the context of recent studies investigating transport of flare-generated BC in the Arctic and globally, impacts of flaring in the energy industry may in fact be underestimated.

Impacts of aerosol direct effects on tropospheric ozone through changes in atmospheric dynamics and photolysis rates

Aerosol direct effects (ADEs), i.e., scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation, reduce radiation reaching the ground and the resultant photolysis attenuation can decrease ozone (O₃) formation in polluted areas. One the other hand, evidence also suggests that ADE-associated cooling suppresses atmospheric ventilation, thereby enhancing surface-level O₃. Assessment of ADE impacts is thus important for understanding emission reduction strategies that seek co-benefits associated with reductions in both particuate matter and O₃ levels. This study quantifies the impacts of ADEs on tropospheric ozone by using a two-way online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry model, WRF- CMAQ, using a process analysis methodology. Two mani-festations of ADE impacts on O3 including changes in atmospheric dynamics (ᐃDynamics) and changes in photolysis rates (∆Photolysis) were assessed separately through multiple scenario simulations for January and July of 2013 over China. Results suggest that ADEs reduced surface daily maxima 1 h O₃ (DM1O₃) in China by up to 39μgm^-3 through the combination of ∆Dynamics and ∆Photolysis in January but enhanced surface DM1O₃ by up to 4μgm^-3 in July. Increased O₃ in July is largely attributed to ∆Dynamics, which causes a weaker O₃ sink of dry deposition and a stronger O₃ source of photochemistry due to the stabilization of the at-mosphere. Meanwhile, surface OH is also enhanced at noon in July, though its daytime average values are reduced in January. An increased OH chain length and a shift towards more volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited conditions are found due to ADEs in both January and July. This study suggests that reducing ADEs may have the potential risk of increasing O₃ in winter, but it will benefit the reduction in maxima O₃ in summer.

Sources of black carbon to the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau glaciers

Combustion-derived black carbon (BC) aerosols accelerate glacier melting in the Himalayas and in Tibet (the Third Pole (TP)), thereby limiting the sustainable freshwater supplies for billions of people. However, the sources of BC reaching the TP remain uncertain, hindering both process understanding and efficient mitigation. Here we present the source-diagnostic Δ¹⁴C/δ¹³C compositions of BC isolated from aerosol and snowpit samples in the TP. For the Himalayas, we found equal contributions from fossil fuel (46±11%) and biomass (54±11%) combustion, consistent with BC source fingerprints from the Indo-Gangetic Plain, whereas BC in the remote northern TP predominantly derives from fossil fuel combustion (66±16%), consistent with Chinese sources. The fossil fuel contributions to BC in the snowpits of the inner TP are lower (30±10%), implying contributions from internal Tibetan sources (for example, yak dung combustion). Constraints on BC sources facilitate improved modelling of climatic patterns, hydrological effects and provide guidance for effective mitigation actions.

Black carbon accelerates melting of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tibet, yet the source of these aerosols remains enigmatic. Here, the authors use isotope fingerprinting techniques to determine the origin of black carbon preserved in glacier ice cores recovered from the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.

Unexpected Benefits of Reducing Aerosol Cooling Effects

Impacts of aerosol cooling are not limited to changes in surface temperature since modulation of atmospheric dynamics resulting from the increased stability can deteriorate local air quality and impact human health. Health impacts from two manifestations of the aerosol direct effects (ADE) are estimated in this study: (1) the effect on surface temperature and (2) the effect on air quality through atmospheric dynamics. Average mortalities arising from the enhancement of surface PM2.5 concentration due to ADE in East Asia, North America and Europe are estimated to be 3-6 times higher than reduced mortality from decreases of temperature due to ADE. Our results suggest that mitigating aerosol pollution is beneficial in decreasing the impacts of climate change arising from these two manifestations of ADE health impacts. Thus, decreasing aerosol pollution gets direct benefits on health, and indirect benefits on health through changes in local climate and not offsetting changes associated only with temperature modulations as traditionally thought. The modulation of air pollution due to ADE also translates into an additional human health dividend in regions (e.g., U.S. Europe) with air pollution control measures but a penalty for regions (e.g., Asia) witnessing rapid deterioration in air quality.

Characteristics of Ambient Black Carbon Mass and Size-Resolved Particle Number Concentrations during Corn Straw Open-Field Burning Episode Observations at a Rural Site in Southern Taiwan

Information on the effect of open-field burning of agricultural residues on ambient black carbon (BC) mass and size-resolved particle number concentrations is scarce. In this study, to understand the effect of such open-field burning on short-term air quality, real-time variations of the BC mass and size-resolved particle number concentrations were monitored before and during a corn straw open-field burning episode at a rural site. Correlations between the BC mass and size-resolved particle number concentrations during the episode were investigated. Moreover, the particle number size distribution and absorption Ångström exponent were determined for obtaining the characteristics of aerosol emissions from the corn straw open-field burning. The results can be used to address public health concerns and as a reference for managing similar episodes of open-field burning of agricultural residues.

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols-specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate-depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO₂ emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions-while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO₂ mitigation-could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

Near-Road Exposure and Impact of Air Pollution on Allergic Diseases in Elementary School Children: A Cross-Sectional Study

PURPOSE

The study aims to classify schools based on traffic pollutants and their complex sources, to assess the environment, to determine the state of allergic diseases among students using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in children (ISAAC) questionnaire, and to assess their connection to air pollutants.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of seven schools were divided into three categories according to the characteristics of their surrounding environments: three schools in traffic-related zones, two schools in complex source zones I (urban), and two schools in complex source zones II (industrial complex). ISAAC questionnaires were administered and the 4404 completed questionnaires were analyzed.

RESULTS

The frequency of asthma treatment during the past 12 months showed a significant increase (p<0.05) with exposure to NO₂ [1.67, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 1.03-2.71] in the complex source zones. The frequency of allergic rhinitis treatment during the past 12 months increased significantly with exposure to Black Carbon (1.60, 95% CIs 1.36-1.90) (p<0.001), SO₂ (1.09, 95% CIs 1.01-1.17) (p<0.05), NO₂ (1.18, 95% CIs 1.07-1.30) (p<0.01) for all subjects.

CONCLUSION

In terms of supporting children's health, care, and prevention related to major spaces for children, such as school zones, spaces used in coming to and leaving school, playgrounds, and classrooms are essential to ensuring not only the safety of children from traffic accidents but also their protection from local traffic pollutants and various hazardous environmental factors.

Air quality and climate connections

Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.

IMPLICATIONS

The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

Differences between magnitudes and health impacts of BC emissions across the United States using 12 km scale seasonal source apportionment

Recent assessments have analyzed the health impacts of PM2.5 from emissions from different locations and sectors using simplified or reduced-form air quality models. Here we present an alternative approach using the adjoint of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which provides source-receptor relationships at highly resolved sectoral, spatial, and temporal scales. While damage resulting from anthropogenic emissions of BC is strongly correlated with population and premature death, we found little correlation between damage and emission magnitude, suggesting that controls on the largest emissions may not be the most efficient means of reducing damage resulting from anthropogenic BC emissions. Rather, the best proxy for locations with damaging BC emissions is locations where premature deaths occur. Onroad diesel and nonroad vehicle emissions are the largest contributors to premature deaths attributed to exposure to BC, while onroad gasoline emissions cause the highest deaths per amount emitted. Emissions in fall and winter contribute to more premature deaths (and more per amount emitted) than emissions in spring and summer. Overall, these results show the value of the high-resolution source attribution for determining the locations, seasons, and sectors for which BC emission controls have the most effective health benefits.

Changes to the chemical composition of soot from heterogeneous oxidation reactions

The atmospheric aging of soot particles, in which various atmospheric processes alter the particles' chemical and physical properties, is poorly understood and consequently is not well-represented in models. In this work, soot aging via heterogeneous oxidation by OH and ozone is investigated using an aerosol flow reactor coupled to a new high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometric technique that utilizes infrared vaporization and single-photon vacuum ultraviolet ionization. This analytical technique simultaneously measures the elemental and organic carbon components of soot, allowing for the composition of both fractions to be monitored. At oxidant exposures relevant to the particles' atmospheric lifetimes (the equivalent of several days of oxidation), the elemental carbon portion of the soot, which makes up the majority of the particle mass, undergoes no discernible changes in mass or composition. In contrast, the organic carbon (which in the case of methane flame soot is dominated by aliphatic species) is highly reactive, undergoing first the addition of oxygen-containing functional groups and ultimately the loss of organic carbon mass from fragmentation reactions that form volatile products. These changes occur on time scales comparable to those of other nonoxidative aging processes such as condensation, suggesting that further research into the combined effects of heterogeneous and condensational aging is needed to improve our ability to accurately predict the climate and health impacts of soot particles.

Toward optical-tweezers-based force microscopy for airborne microparticles

Optical tweezers have found widespread application in biological and colloidal physics for the measurement of pN forces over nanometer to micrometer length scales. Similar aerosol-phase measurements of interparticle force have not been reported in spite of the potential to better resolve particle coagulation kinetics. Various refractive index mismatches in the beam path as well as the need to explicitly account for gravity and inertial particle motion provide a number of challenges that must be overcome to make such measurements tractable. In this regard, we demonstrate schemes by which the particle position and trap stiffness may be unambiguously measured using bright-field microscopy with resolution comparable with analogous condensed-phase measurements. Moreover, some of the challenges of working with highly dynamic aqueous particles are introduced and exploited to observe size-dependent phenomena in aerosol optical tweezers. Notably, when combined with cavity-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, this provides a unique opportunity to explore trapping forces over a continuum of particle size and refractive index. It is expected that the methods developed will provide a basis for the measurement of pairwise interaction forces in aerosol optical tweezers while providing a probe of fundamental airborne particle trapping dynamics.

Climate change and respiratory health: current evidence and knowledge gaps

Climate change is a key driver of the accelerating environmental change affecting populations around the world. Many of these changes and our response to them can affect respiratory health. This is an expert opinion review of recent peer-reviewed literature, focused on more recent medical journals and climate-health relevant modeling results from non-biomedical journals pertaining to climate interactions with air pollution. Global health impacts in low resource countries and migration precipitated by environmental change are addressed. The major findings are of respiratory health effects related to heat, air pollution, shifts in infectious diseases and allergens, flooding, water, food security and migration. The review concludes with knowledge gaps and research need that will support the evidence-base required to address the challenges ahead.

Temporal characteristics of black carbon concentrations and its potential emission sources in a southern Taiwan industrial urban area

This study investigates the temporal characteristics of black carbon and its potential emission sources, as well as the fractions of BC in PM2.5 levels in Kaohsiung urban area, which is an industrial city in southern Taiwan. Concentrations of BC and PM2.5 are monitored continuously from March 2006 to February 2010, using an aethalometer and a tapered element oscillating microbalance monitor. Additionally, the presence of organic compounds (or UV enhanced species) in particles at the sampling site is determined using the Delta-C (UVBC-BC) value. According to long-term measurement results, BC and PM2.5 concentrations are 3.33 and 34.0 μg m(-3), respectively, in the Kaohsiung urban area. The ratio of BC/PM2.5 is approximately 11 %. Low concentration of BC and PM2.5 in the summer of this study period is mostly likely owing to meteorological conditions that favored dispersion of local air pollutants. Nevertheless, BC concentrations peaked markedly during morning hours (7:00-11:00), likely owing to local traffic congestion. Measurement results suggest that BC is released from local traffic activities and emitted from industrial activities at this sampling site. Additionally, Delta-C values are significantly higher than zero during January-March and November-December periods in this industrial urban area, implying that UV enhanced species can be observed. At this sampling site, these UV enhanced species do not only originate from household activity and solid waste burning but also release from industrial activities. The elevated Delta-C values during nighttime (18:00-6:00) in the autumn and winter seasons are likely related to those UV enhanced species in the atmosphere, which can be condensed on particle surface under low temperature conditions. According to long-term measurement results, significantly positive Delta-C values can be observed under temperatures <20 °C and relative humidity of 60-75 % in this study. Despite the household activity and solid waste burning, the major sources of particles that are bound with UV enhanced species in this sampling site are industrial parks and a coal-fired power plant.

Source forensics of black carbon aerosols from China

The limited understanding of black carbon (BC) aerosol emissions from incomplete combustion causes a poorly constrained anthropogenic climate warming that globally may be second only to CO2 and regionally, such as over East Asia, the dominant driver of climate change. The relative contribution to atmospheric BC from fossil fuel versus biomass combustion is important to constrain as fossil BC is a stronger climate forcer. The source apportionment is the underpinning for targeted mitigation actions. However, technology-based "bottom-up" emission inventories are inconclusive, largely due to uncertain BC emission factors from small-scale/household combustion and open burning. We use "top-down" radiocarbon measurements of atmospheric BC from five sites including three city sites and two regional sites to determine that fossil fuel combustion produces 80 ± 6% of the BC emitted from China. This source-diagnostic radiocarbon signal in the ambient aerosol over East Asia establishes a much larger role for fossil fuel combustion than suggested by all 15 BC emission inventory models, including one with monthly resolution. Our results suggest that current climate modeling should refine both BC emission strength and consider the stronger radiative absorption associated with fossil-fuel-derived BC. To mitigate near-term climate effects and improve air quality in East Asia, activities such as residential coal combustion and city traffic should be targeted.

Air quality and climate--synergies and trade-offs

Air quality and climate are often treated as separate science and policy areas. Air quality encompasses the here-and-now of pollutant emissions, atmospheric transformations and their direct effect on human and ecosystem health. Climate change deals with the drivers leading to a warmer world and the consequences of that. These two science and policy issues are inexorably linked via common pollutants, such as ozone (methane) and black carbon. This short review looks at the new scientific evidence around so-called "short-lived climate forcers" and the growing realisation that a way to meet short-term climate change targets may be through the control of "air quality" pollutants. None of the options discussed here can replace reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, which is required for any long-term climate change mitigation strategy. An overview is given of the underlying science, remaining uncertainties, and some of the synergies and trade-offs for addressing air quality and climate in the science and policy context.

Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

Abstract. In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane) are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO2 which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC) which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO2 are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20).

Global air quality and climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing

Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon.

Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls

BACKGROUND

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years.

METHODS

We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM(2.5) and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM(2.5)- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions.

RESULTS

We estimated that, for PM(2.5) and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM(2.5) relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Climate effects of emission standards: the case for gasoline and diesel cars

Passenger transport affects climate through various mechanisms involving both long-lived and short-lived climate forcers. Because diesel cars generally emit less CO(2) than gasoline cars, CO(2) emission taxes for vehicle registrations and fuels enhance the consumer preference for diesel cars over gasoline cars. However, with the non-CO(2) components, which have been changed and will be changed under the previous and upcoming vehicle emission standards, what does the shift from gasoline to diesel cars mean for the climate mitigation? By using a simple climate model, we demonstrate that, under the earlier emissions standards (EURO 3 and 4), a diesel car causes a larger warming up to a decade after the emissions than a similar gasoline car due to the higher emissions of black carbon and NO(X) (enhancing the O(3) production). Beyond a decade, the warming caused by a diesel car becomes, however, weaker because of the lower CO(2) emissions. As the latter emissions standards (EURO 5 and 6) are phased in, the short-term warming due to a diesel car becomes smaller primarily due to the lower black carbon emissions. Thus, although results are subject to restrictive assumptions and uncertainties, the switch from gasoline to diesel cars encouraged by CO(2) taxes does not contradict with the climate mitigation focusing on long-term consequences.