Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98

Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) to the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (ETIO). Whether and how the different types of IOD variability patterns affect the variability of Antarctic sea ice is not known, nor is how the impact may change in a warming climate. Here, we find that the leading mode of austral spring Antarctic sea ice variability is dominated by WTIO SST variability rather than ETIO SST or El Niño-Southern Oscillation. WTIO warm SST anomalies excite a poleward-propagating Rossby wave, inducing a tri-polar anomaly pattern characterized by a decrease in sea ice near the Amundsen Sea but an increase in regions on both sides. Such impact has been weakening in the two decades post-2000, accompanied by weakened WTIO SST variability. Under greenhouse warming, climate models project a decrease in WTIO SST variability, suggesting that the reduced impact on Antarctic sea ice from the IOD will likely to continue, facilitating a fast decline of Antarctic sea ice.

Impact of bathymetry on Indian Ocean circulation in a nested regional ocean model

The Regional Indian Ocean model based on Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) was used to understand the importance of a realistic representation of bathymetry on Ocean General Circulation. The model has 1/4° uniform horizontal resolution and is forced with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) inter-annual forcing with two simulations named BLND (realistic bathymetry) and OM3 (smoothed bathymetry), which only differ in the representation of bathymetry for the years 1992-2005. We also used recent reanalysis products from ORAS5 and SODA3 and ADCP observation to compare the subsurface currents. We show that by the inclusion of realistic bathymetry, there is a significant improvement in the upper ocean salinity, temperature, and currents, particularly near the coast. The salinity and temperature of the upper ocean are very close to the observed value near the coast. The bias in the salinity and temperature was reduced to half in BLND simulation compared to OM3, which led to a more realistic East India Coastal Current (EICC). We show the first evidence of a basin-wide cyclonic gyre over the Bay of Bengal at 1000 m depth during spring, which is just opposite to that of a basin-wide anti-cyclonic gyre at the surface. We found the presence of poleward EICC during spring at 1000 m and 2000 m depth, which is opposite to that of the surface. The presence of this deeper EICC structure is completely absent during fall. We show the presence of a boundary current along the coast of Andaman and Nicobar Island at a depth of 2000 m. The observed Wyrtki Jet (WJ) magnitude and spatial structure are most realistically reproduced in BLND simulation as compared to OM3 simulations. Both ORAS5 and SODA reanalysis products underestimate the WJ magnitude. The presence of the Maldives Islands is responsible for the westward extent of Equatorial Under Current (EUC). The presence of Maldives also creates wakes on the leeward side in the EUC zonal current. During fall, EUC is better defined in the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean and lies at a depth of between 50 and 100 m, unlike its spring counterpart, in which its core is located slightly deeper, between 100 and 150 m depth. During peak summer months, June-July, a strong eastward zonal jet is present at 1000 m depth, similar to Wyrtki Jet (WJ). Inter-monsoon Jets, i.e., spring and fall jets, are also seen but are in the opposite direction, i.e., westward, unlike eastward in WJ.

Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that human influences on IOD variability are not robustly detected in observations and twenty-first century climate-model projections. Here, using millennial-length climate simulations, we disentangle forced response and internal variability in IOD change and show that greenhouse warming robustly suppresses IOD variability. On a century time scale, internal variability overwhelms the forced change in IOD, leading to a widespread response in IOD variability. This masking effect is mainly caused by a remote influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, on a millennial time scale, nearly all climate models show a long-term weakening trend in IOD variability by greenhouse warming. Our results provide compelling evidence for a human influence on the IOD.

Data-driven dimensionality reduction and causal inference for spatiotemporal climate fields

We propose a data-driven framework to describe spatiotemporal climate variability in terms of a few entities and their causal linkages. Given a high-dimensional climate field, the methodology first reduces its dimensionality into a set of regionally constrained patterns. Causal relations among such patterns are then inferred in the interventional sense through the fluctuation-response formalism. To distinguish between true and spurious responses, we propose an analytical null model for the fluctuation-dissipation relation, therefore allowing us for uncertainty estimation at a given confidence level. We showcase the methodology on the sea surface temperature field from a state-of-the-art climate model. The usefulness of the proposed framework for spatiotemporal climate data is demonstrated in several ways. First, we focus on the correct identification of known causal relations across tropical basins. Second, we show how the methodology allows us to visualize the cumulative response of the whole system to climate variability in a few selected regions. Finally, each pattern is ranked in terms of its causal strength, quantifying its relative ability to influence the system's dynamics. We argue that the methodology allows us to explore and characterize causal relations in spatiotemporal fields in a rigorous and interpretable way.

Spatio-temporal variability of surface chlorophyll and pCO2 over the tropical Indian Ocean and its long-term trend using CMIP6 models

Under the global climate change scenario, ever-increasing ocean temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration levels in the ocean and atmosphere significantly affect ocean biogeochemistry. The spatiotemporal distribution of chlorophyll and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) over the Indian Ocean (IO) are investigated using satellite, in-situ, and simulations from eleven Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models. All the models show negative bias near the Somali region over the Arabian Sea (AS) during the southwest monsoon season. The CESMs and CanESM5 models show relatively less bias over the tropical IO except for the AS in all seasons compared to other models. The annual cycle of pCO2 shows a bimodal characteristic, with the first peak in May and the other in October over the northern IO, which the CanESM5, IPSL, and MPIs models reasonably well capture. All the models produce the phase of the annual cycle of pCO2 reasonably well for the southern IO. The pCO2 distribution and its trend decomposition are estimated using the multimodel mean from the CanESM5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MPIs models, suggesting that the increase in dissolved inorganic carbon is the dominant factor that contributes to about 70 % of the rise in the total pCO2 trend, and the total alkalinity and sea surface temperature have a secondary role. Region-wise analysis manifests that the southern IO and AS exhibit maximum susceptibility to the long-term variations in the pCO2 trend caused by the changes in dissolved inorganic carbon levels in the ocean. The study discusses substantive factors leading to the variability in the biogeochemical properties of the IO as simulated by these models and, thus, the possibilities for future improvements.

A negative biological Indian Ocean dipole event in 2022

The biological dipole mode index (BDMI) showed a negative biological Indian Ocean dipole (BIOD) event occurred in the Equatorial Indian Ocean with the corresponding BIOD index BDMI(Ratio) at - 0.31 in October 2022. The chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) ratio (or Chl-a anomaly) between Chl-a in October 2022 and October Chl-a climatology from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) showed negative dipolar features with the depressed and enhanced Chl-a in the east and west IOD zones, respectively. During this negative BIOD event, Chl-a ratio dropped to ~ 0.4-0.5 in the offshore region of the west Sumatra Coast in the east IOD zone, while it increased to ~ 1.5-1.6 in the northern west IOD zone. Temporal variations of the longitudinal averaged Chl-a ratio and the 20 °C isothermal (ISO20) depth anomaly generally coincided and collocated with each other. The positive and negative BIOD events in 2019 and 2022, respectively, were attributed to the nutrient dynamics driven by the physical dynamics in these two phases of IOD events. In the negative BIOD event in 2022, the depressed Chl-a in the east IOD zone was attributed to low sea surface nutrient levels due to dampened upwelling and deepened thermocline, while anomalously high Chl-a in the west IOD zone were driven by higher sea surface nutrient concentrations caused by the surface water divergence and shoaling thermocline.

Marine heatwaves during the pre-monsoon season and their impact on Chlorophyll-a in the north Indian Ocean in 1982-2021

Indian Ocean has been undergoing rapid warming in recent years, which increases the likelihood of Marine heatwave (MHW). MHWs are extreme warm ocean surface conditions in which temperature exceeds the 95th percentile for three or more consecutive days. We investigate MHW events occurred in Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) during pre-monsoon for 1982-2021 period, their impact on Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and net primary productivity (NPP). There were 42 (68) MHW events with a significant trend of 8.1 (6.3) MHW days dec-1 in AS (BoB). There is a distinct decrease in Chl-a concentration associated with MHW, especially in medium and long duration events. In general, AS and BoB have witnessed more frequent and long-lasting MHWs in the 2002-2021 period, which reduce NPP of north Indian Ocean. A decrease in Chl-a and NPP, 10 % in AS and 2 % in BoB, is estimated, but only severe MHWs inflict a notable reduction.

Provenance of Aerosol Black Carbon over Northeast Indian Ocean and South China Sea and Implications for Oceanic Black Carbon Cycling

Aerosol black carbon (BC) is a short-lived climate pollutant. The poorly constrained provenance of tropical marine aerosol BC hinders the mechanistic understanding of extreme climate events and oceanic carbon cycling. Here, we collected PM2.5 samples during research cruise NORC2016-10 through South China Sea (SCS) and Northeast Indian Ocean (NEIO) and measured the dual-carbon isotope compositions (δ13C-Δ14C) of BC using hydrogen pyrolysis technique. Aerosol BC exhibits six different δ13C-Δ14C isotopic spaces (i.e., isotope provinces). Liquid fossil fuel combustion, from shipping emissions and adjacent land, is the predominant source of BC over isotope provinces "SCS close to Chinese Mainland" (53.5%), "Malacca Strait" (53.4%), and "Open NEIO" (40.7%). C3 biomass burning is the major contributor to BC over isotope provinces "NEIO close to Southeast Asia" (55.8%), "Open NEIO" (41.3%), and "Open SCS" (40.0%). Coal combustion and C4 biomass burning show higher contributions to BC over "Sunda Strait" and "Open SCS" than the others. Overall, NEIO near the Bay of Bengal, Malacca Strait, and north SCS are three hot spots of fossil fuel-derived BC; the first two areas are also hot spots of biomass-derived BC. The comparable δ13C-Δ14C between BC in aerosol and dissolved BC in surface seawater may suggest atmospheric BC deposition as a potential source of oceanic dissolved BC.

Increased impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

There are broad effects of vegetation changes on regional climate, carbon budget, the water cycle, and ecosystems' productivity. Therefore, further knowledge of the drivers of future vegetation changes is critical to mitigate the influences of global warming. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of interannual climate variability and is likely to affect vegetation on the global scale. Nonetheless, little is known about the causal impacts of ENSO on future vegetation cover with changes in land use and a warming environment. Here, we examined the connections between ENSO and vegetation using leaf area index (LAI) data over the period 2015-2100 from Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our findings indicate that, compared with the historical period 1915-2000, the vegetated areas influenced by ENSO are projected to rise by approximately 55.2% and 20.7% during the twenty-first century of the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Though uncertainty for the causal link between ENSO and vegetation changes remains in several regions (i.e., parts of North America, southern Australia, and western Asia), ENSO signature on LAI variations is robust over northern Australia, Amazonia, and parts of Southeast Asia. These results indicate that the influences of ENSO on global vegetation may strengthen in the future.

Regional and temporal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to El Niño southern oscillation

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) exhibits significant variability, affecting the food and water security of the densely populated Indian subcontinent. The two dominant spatial modes of ISMR variability are associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the strength of the semi-permanent monsoon trough along with related variability in monsoon depressions, respectively. Although the robust teleconnection between ENSO and ISMR has been well established for several decades, the major drivers leading to the time-varying relationship between ENSO and ISMR patterns across different regions of the country are not well understood. Our analysis shows a consistent increase from a moderate to substantially strong teleconnection strength between ENSO and ISMR from 1901 to 1940. This strengthened relationship remained stable and strong between 1941 and 1980. However, in the recent period from 1981 to 2018 the teleconnection decreased consistently again to a moderate strength. We find that the ENSO-ISMR relationship exhibits distinct regional variability with time-varying relationship over the north, central, and south India. Specifically, the teleconnection displays an increasing relationship for north India, a decreasing relationship for central India and a consistent relationship for south India. Warm SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean correspond to an overall decrease in the ISMR, while warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean corresponds to a decrease in rainfall over the north and increase over the south of India. The central Indian region experienced the most substantial variation in the ENSO-ISMR relationship. This variation corresponds to the variability of the monsoon trough and depressions, strongly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, which regulate the relative dominance of the two spatial modes of ISMR. By applying the PCA-Biplot technique, our study highlights the significant impacts of various climate drivers on the two dominant spatial modes of ISMR which account for the evolving nature of the ENSO-ISMR relationship.

Quantifying the role of antecedent Southwestern Indian Ocean capacitance on the summer monsoon rainfall variability over homogeneous regions of India

The role of ocean variability is at a focal point in improving the weather and climate forecasts at different spatial and temporal scales. We study the effect of antecedent southwestern Indian Ocean mean sea level anomaly (MSLA) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as a proxy to upper ocean heat capacitance on all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during 1993-2019. SSTA and MSLA over the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) have been influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the impact of ENSO-induced SWIO variability was low on rainfall variability over several homogeneous regions. Rainfall over northeast (NE) and North India (EI) has been modulated by ENSO-induced SSTA and MSLA over SWIO, thus effecting the total AISMR magnitude. The ENSO-induced changes in heat capacitance (SSTA and MSLA) over SWIO during antecedent months has less impact on west coast of India, central India and North India (NI) rainfall variability. The long-term trend in pre-monsoonal SSTA and MSLA over SWIO shows decreasing rainfall trend over NI, NE, and EI in the recent time. Furthermore, the cooler (warmer) anomaly over the western Indian Ocean affects rainfall variability adversely (favourably) due to the reversal of the wind pattern during the pre-monsoon period. While SSTA and MSLA are increasing in the SWIO, large-scale variability of these parameters during preceding winter and pre-monsoon months combined with surface winds could impact the inter-annual AISMR variability over homogeneous regions of India. Similarly, from an oceanic perspective, the antecedent heat capacitance over SWIO on an inter-annual time scale has been the key to the extreme monsoon rainfall variability.

Peatland groundwater level in the Indonesian maritime continent as an alert for El Niño and moderate positive Indian Ocean dipole events

In general, it is known that extreme climatic conditions such as El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD+) cause prolonged drought in Indonesia's tropical peatlands so that groundwater levels (GWL) drop and peat is prone to fire. However, 27 years of GWL measurements in Central Kalimantan peat forests show the opposite condition, where the lowest GWL occurs several weeks before El Niño and after IOD+ reaches its peaks. We show that the dropped sea surface temperature anomaly induced by anomalously easterly winds along the southern Java-Sumatra occurs several weeks before the GWL drop to the lowest value. Local rainfall decreased, and GWL dropped sharply by 1.0 to 1.5 m, during the super El Niño events in 1997/98 and 2015, as well as remarkable events of IOD+ in 2019. It is suggested that the tropical peatland ecohydrological system (represented by the GWL), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and IOD+ are teleconnected. Hence, monitoring GWL variability of peatland over the IMC is a possibility an alert for extreme climate events associated with El Niño and/or moderate IOD+.

Mid-Holocene expansion of the Indian Ocean warm pool documented in coral Sr/Ca records from Kenya

Proxy reconstructions suggest that mid-Holocene East African temperatures were warmer than today between 8 and 5 ka BP, but climate models cannot replicate this warming. Precessional forcing caused a shift of maximum insolation from boreal spring to fall in the mid-Holocene, which may have favored intense warming at the start of the warm season. Here, we use three Porites corals from Kenya that represent time windows from 6.55 to 5.87 ka BP to reconstruct past sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality from coral Sr/Ca ratios in the western Indian Ocean during the mid-Holocene. Although the Indian monsoon was reportedly stronger in the mid-Holocene, which should have amplified the seasonal cycle of SST in the western Indian Ocean, the corals suggest reduced seasonality (mean 3.2 °C) compared to the modern record (mean 4.3 °C). Warming in austral spring is followed by a prolonged period of warm SSTs, suggesting that an upper limit of tropical SSTs under mid-Holocene conditions was reached at the start of the warm season, and SSTs then remained stable. Similar changes are seen at the Seychelles. Bootstrap estimates suggest a reduction in SST seasonality of 1.3 ± 0.22 °C at Kenya and 1.7 ± 0.32 °C at the Seychelles. SST seasonality at Kenya corresponds to present-day SST seasonality at 55° E-60° E, while SST seasonality at the Seychelles corresponds to present day SST seasonality at ~ 65° E. This implies a significant westward expansion of the Indian Ocean warm pool. Furthermore, the coral data suggests that SST seasonality deviates from seasonal changes in orbital insolation due to ocean-atmosphere interactions.

Multi-task machine learning improves multi-seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole

As one of the most predominant interannual variabilities, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts great socio-economic impacts globally, especially on Asia, Africa, and Australia. While enormous efforts have been made since its discovery to improve both climate models and statistical methods for better prediction, current skills in IOD predictions are mostly limited up to three months ahead. Here, we challenge this long-standing problem using a multi-task deep learning model that we name MTL-NET. Hindcasts of the IOD events during the past four decades indicate that the MTL-NET can predict the IOD well up to 7-month ahead, outperforming most of world-class dynamical models used for comparison in this study. Moreover, the MTL-NET can help assess the importance of different predictors and correctly capture the nonlinear relationships between the IOD and predictors. Given its merits, the MTL-NET is demonstrated to be an efficient model for improved IOD prediction.

Increased occurrences of early Indian Ocean Dipole under global warming

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a prominent mode of ocean-atmosphere interannual variability with great climate and socioeconomic impacts. Early positive IOD (pIOD), a newly discovered type of pIOD, induces pronounced rainfall anomalies in boreal summer more than canonical pIOD. It also contributes to more frequent consecutive pIODs, causing devastating droughts and floods. How early pIOD responds to global warming remains unknown. Here, we show that early pIOD has increased substantially in the past decades, reaching the same frequency as canonical pIOD. The increase is caused by intensified Bjerknes feedback and an early summer monsoon onset, which is the major trigger for early pIOD. Model simulations suggest that the increased frequency of early pIOD is likely to continue under greenhouse warming by the same mechanisms as in the observations, increasing boreal summer climate variability and leading to more climate extremes in affected regions.

Southern Indian Ocean Dipole as a trigger for Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s

Despite decades of effort, predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since the 2000s has become increasingly challenging. This is due to the weaker coupling between the ENSO and well-known precursors in tropical ocean basins, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Here we show that the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), which is characterized by an east-west-oriented sea surface temperature dipole pattern over the southern Indian Ocean, has become a key precursor of Central Pacific El Niño since the 2000s with a 14-month lead. The role of the SIOD in the subsequent year's ENSO is distinctive from the equatorial Indian Ocean Dipole mode in that it prolongs the ENSO period. The westward-shifted ENSO has sustained simultaneous SIOD events for longer periods since the 2000s, which leads to weak but persistent westerly anomalies over the western Pacific. This eventually results in the development of the Central Pacific El Niño in the subsequent year.

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010-2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

Analysis of Influencing Factors of SST in Tropical West Indian Ocean Based on COBE Satellite Data

The time-frequency domain analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical western Indian Ocean was conducted using wavelet analysis, cross wavelet transform (XWT), the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and other methods based on COBE-SST data for the last 50 years (1974–2020). From the perspective of time-frequency combination, examining the data of precipitation, sea surface heat flux, total cloud cover, and long-wave radiation, helped contribute to exploring the periodic changes of SST. Moreover, the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) was selected to analyze the role of SST from 1974 to 2020. Present results have demonstrated that the SST in the western Indian Ocean was in a stage of rising, particularly in 1998. According to the fast Fourier transform of the filtered SST time series, the tropical western Indian Ocean SST has a short period of 3–6 years, a medium period of about 10 years, and a long period of 40 years. The SST in the tropical western Indian Ocean has a resonance period of 2–6 years with precipitation, a resonance period of 2–6 years with sea surface heat flux, a resonance period of 4–5 years with total cloud cover, and a resonance period of 2–5 years with long-wave radiation. Importantly, SST was negatively associated with precipitation, total cloud cover, and long-wave radiation, and positively for sea surface heat flux before 1997. Seasonal migration activities are significantly correlated with the WHWP and the tropical western Indian Ocean SST. The spatial lattice point correlation coefficient is generally from 0.6 to 0.9, and the inter-annual serial correlation value is more than 0.89. Furthermore, the two exist with a resonance period of 2–5 years.

Interannual variability of internal tides in the Andaman Sea: an effect of Indian Ocean Dipole

A marginal sea in the north eastern Indian Ocean, the Andaman Sea, has been known for the presence of high-amplitude internal waves since the nineteenth century. In this study, we explored the interannual variations of the internal wave activity in this complex region. We found that the Dipole Mode Index, which represents the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), influences the circulation in the Andaman Sea, which in turn impacts its density stratification on interannual scales. Ocean Reanalysis System 5 data (1993–2018) is used to see an increasing trend in the sub-surface stratification, whereas it showed a decreasing trend in the near-surface waters. Numerical model simulations carried out from 2009 to 2018 have shown that the interannual variability in the generation of semidiurnal internal tides is governed by distinct parameters (tidal forcing and stratification) at different sites in different months. Enhanced upwelling (downwelling) is observed during positive (negative) IOD events. Sensitivity experiments conducted between extreme IOD events (2006 and 2016) revealed an increase in internal tide generation from positive IOD to negative IOD. Furthermore, a sharp decrease in local baroclinic dissipation is seen during negative IOD, increasing baroclinic flux into the Andaman Sea. An increase in the strength of positive IOD could lead to enhanced diapycnal mixing due to strong local dissipation, whereas an increase in the intensity of negative IOD could result in amplified propagation of internal waves.

Coral Sr/Ca records provide realistic representation of eastern Indian Ocean cooling during extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events

Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events are amplified by non-linear ocean–atmosphere interactions and are characterized by pronounced cooling in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. These non-linear feedbacks are not adequately represented in historical products of sea surface temperatures that underestimate the magnitude of extreme pIOD events. Here, we present a sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction based on monthly coral Sr/Ca ratios measured in two coral cores from Enggano Island (Indonesia), that lies in the eastern pole of the IOD. The coral SST reconstruction extends from 1930 to 2008 and captures the magnitude of cooling during extreme pIOD events as shown in recent satellite and reanalysis data of SST that include ocean dynamics. The corals indicate that the 1961 pIOD event was at least as severe as the 1997 event, while the 1963 pIOD was more comparable to the 2006 event. The magnitude 1967 pIOD is difficult to assess at present due to poor replication between coral cores, and may be comparable to either 1997 or 2006. Cooling during the 1972 pIOD was short-lived and followed by pronounced warming, as seen in the moderate pIOD event of 1982. A combination of coral SST reconstructions and an extension of new reanalysis products of SST to historical time scales could help to better assess the severity and impact of past pIOD events such as the ones seen in the 1960s.

Decreasing causal impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on future fire activities

Wildfires alter the composition and structure of ecosystems and result in huge economic costs. While future fires and ecosystems recovery might become increasingly challenging to manage under warming environment, further understanding of the main drivers of wildfires is necessary. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major climate mode and is expected to affect global wildfires. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty regarding the causal impacts of ENSO on future fire activities at the global scale. Here we use model outputs from the Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to systematically evaluate the response of future fire activities (i.e., fire carbon emissions) to ENSO during the period 2015-2100 over different continents. Our results demonstrate that the impacts of ENSO on fires are found in the tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, Asia, Oceania, and America, while ENSO impacts over high latitude regions are very limited over Alaska and far eastern Europe. We showed that the role of ENSO on fire activities over subtropical regions might be more important than previously understood. High consistency between models is observed for the impacted regions. In historical experiment, the areas with significant ENSO effects on wildfires account for approximately 5.85% of land-area and this ratio decreases to approximately 5.39% and 2.92% of land-area in the future scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These results imply a decrease in ENSO impacts on global fire activities in future projections compared to the historical period 1915-2000. This work might contribute to the ENSO-based forecasts of global fire activities.

Southern hemisphere forced millennial scale Indian summer monsoon variability during the late Pleistocene

Peninsular India hosts the initial rain-down of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) after which winds travel further east inwards into Asia. Stalagmite oxygen isotope composition from this region, such as those from Belum Cave, preserve the vital signals of the past ISM variability. These archives experience a single wet season with a single dominant moisture source annually. Here we present high-resolution δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Mn/Ca) time series from a Belum Cave stalagmite spanning glacial MIS-6 (from ~ 183 to ~ 175 kyr) and interglacial substages MIS-5c-5a (~ 104 kyr to ~ 82 kyr). With most paleomonsoon reconstructions reporting coherent evolution of northern hemisphere summer insolation and ISM variability on orbital timescale, we focus on understanding the mechanisms behind millennial scale variability. Finding that the two are decoupled over millennial timescales, we address the role of the Southern Hemisphere processes in modulating monsoon strength as a part of the Hadley circulation. We identify several strong and weak episodes of ISM intensity during 104–82 kyr. Some of the weak episodes correspond to warming in the southern hemisphere associated with weak cross-equatorial winds. We show that during the MIS-5 substages, ISM strength gradually declined with millennial scale variability linked to Southern Hemisphere temperature changes which in turn modulate the strength of the Mascarene High.

Rising surface pressure over Tibetan Plateau strengthens indian summer monsoon rainfall over northwestern India

The dipole pattern (wetting over northwestern India and drying over the Indo-Gangetic plains and northeast India) in the rainfall trends is reported in many earlier studies. The exact cause of the rainfall trends' asymmetry remains unclear. We show that increasing trends over the northwestern parts are closely associated with the rise in surface pressure over the Tibetan Plateau. The surface pressure over Tibetan Plateau shows increasing trends (0.23 hPa decade^-1, p < 0.01) during 1979-2020. Easterlies across northwest India and southerlies over east India show rises of - 0.26 ms^-1 decade^-1 and 0.15 ms^-1 decade^-1, respectively, in line with Tibetan surface pressure trends. Water vapour transfer across northwest India has increased as a result of these changes in circulation. Increased lower-level easterlies carried more water vapour from the Bay of Bengal over northwest India. At the same time, stronger mid-level southerlies drove extratropical dry air out of India, strengthening the rainfall generating mechanism. Rising easterlies in northwest India also enhance vorticity along the monsoon trough, which promotes rainfall generation. Concurrently, because of the high surface pressure over Tibet, the circulation intensity of the mid-tropospheric cyclone over East India was weakened, resulting in less rain in the Indo-Gangetic region. The present study proposes that an increase in the surface pressure over Tibetan Plateau is an important factor contributing to the dipole pattern in the ISMR trends, particularly upward trends in rainfall over northwest India.

The increased frequency of combined El Niño and positive IOD events since 1965s and its impacts on maritime continent hydroclimates

The Indian and Pacific Oceans surround the Maritime Continent (MC). Major modes of sea surface temperature variability in both oceans, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can strongly affect precipitation on the MC. The prevalence of fires in the MC is closely associated with precipitation amount and terrestrial water storage in September and October. Precipitation and terrestrial water storage, which is a measurement of hydrological drought conditions, are significantly modulated by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño events. We utilize long-term datasets to study the combined effects of ENSO and the IOD on MC precipitation during the past 100 years (1900–2019) and find that the reductions in MC precipitation and terrestrial water storage are more pronounced during years when El Niño and a positive phase of the IOD (pIOD) coincided. The combined negative effects are produced mainly through an enhanced reduction of upward motion over the MC. Coincident El Niño-pIOD events have occurred more frequently after 1965. However, climate models do not project a higher occurrence of coincident El Niño-pIOD events in a severely warming condition, implying that not the global warming but the natural variability might be the leading cause of this phenomenon.

Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Super Cyclone Activities over the Bay of Bengal during the Primary Cyclone Season

An obvious interdecadal change can be measured in the super cyclones (SCs, categories 4 and 5) that occur from October to November over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This change may be modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). A La Niña-like difference between the 1977–1998 (IP1) and 1999–2014 (IP2) periods forced a local Hadley circulation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean by strengthening the Walker circulation, which caused plummeting upper-level temperatures and ultimately created favorable thermodynamic conditions to enhance the cyclone intensity. Meanwhile, an equatorial downwelling Kelvin wave caused by heating and westerly wind differences entered the BoB rim along the coast and aptly intensified the cyclone, such that the downwelling Kevin wave and Rossby wave generated by its reflection deepened the thermocline in the BoB. The favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in IP2 jointly and preferentially cause far more SC activities from October to November over the BoB compared to IP1.

Approaches for Joint Retrieval of Wind Speed and Significant Wave Height and Further Improvement for Tiangong-2 Interferometric Imaging Radar Altimeter

The interferometric imaging radar altimeter (InIRA) adopts a short baseline along with small incidence angles to acquire interferometric signals from the sea surface with high accuracy, thus the wide-swath sea surface height (SSH) and backscattering coefficient (σ0) can be obtained simultaneously. This work presents an approach to jointly retrieve the wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) for the Chinese Tiangong-2 interferometric imaging radar altimeter (TG2-InIRA). This approach utilizes a multilayer perceptron (MLP) joint retrieval model based on σ0 and SSH data. By comparing with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the retrieved wind speed and the SWH are 1.27 m/s and 0.36 m, respectively. Based on the retrieved SWH, two enhanced wind speed retrieval models are developed for high sea states and low sea states, respectively. The results show that the RMSE of the retrieved wind speed is 1.12 m/s when the SWHs < 4 m; the RMSE is 0.73 m/s when the SWHs ≥ 4 m. Similarly, two enhanced SWH retrieval models for relatively larger and relatively smaller wind speed regions are developed based on the retrieved wind speed with corresponding RMSEs of 0.19 m and 0.16 m, respectively. The comparison between the retrieved results and the buoy data shows that they are highly consistent. The results show that the additional information of SWH can be used to improve the accuracy of wind speed retrieval at small incidence angles, and also the additional information of wind speed can be used to improve the SWH retrieval. The stronger the correlation between wind speed and SWH, the greater the improvement of the retrieved results. The proposed method can achieve joint retrieval of wind speed and SWH accurately, which complements the existing wind speed and SWH retrieval methods for InIRA.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Tidal Mixing Signatures in Indonesian Seas from High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature

With their complex narrow passages and vigorous mixing, the Indonesian seas provide the only low-latitude pathway between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and thus play an essential role in regulating Pacific-Indian Ocean exchange, regional air-sea interaction, and ultimately, global climate phenomena. While previous investigations using remote sensing and numerical simulations strongly suggest that this mixing is tidally driven, the impacts of monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tidal mixing in the Indonesian seas must play an important role. Here we use high-resolution sea surface temperature from June 2002 to June 2021 to reveal monsoon and ENSO modulations of mixing. The largest spring-neap (fortnightly) signals are found to be localized in the narrow passages/straits and sills, with more vigorous tidal mixing during the southeast (boreal summer) monsoon and El Niño than that during the northwest (boreal winter monsoon) and La Niña. Therefore, tidal mixing, which necessarily responds to seasonal and interannual changes in stratification, must also play a feedback role in regulating seasonal and interannual variability of water mass transformations and Indonesian throughflow. The findings have implications for longer-term variations and changes of Pacific–Indian ocean water mass transformation, circulation, and climate.

A Review of the Role of the Oceanic Rossby Waves in Climate Variability

In this paper, the role of oceanic Rossby waves in climate variability is reviewed, as well as their dynamics in tropical oceans and at mid-latitudes. For tropical oceans, both the interactions between equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves, and off-equatorial Rossby waves are privileged. The difference in the size of the basins induces disparities both in the forcing modes and in the dynamics of the tropical waves, which form a single quasi-stationary wave system. For Rossby waves at mid-latitudes, a wide range of periods is considered, varying from a few days to several million years when very-long-period Rossby waves winding around the subtropical gyres are hypothesized. This review focuses on the resonant forcing of Rossby waves that seems ubiquitous: the quasi-geostrophic adjustment of the oceans favors natural periods close to the forcing period, while those far from it are damped because of friction. Prospective work concentrates on the resonant forcing of dynamical systems in subharmonic modes. According to this new concept, the development of ENSO depends on its date of occurrence. Opportunities arise to shed new light on open issues such as the Middle Pleistocene transition.

Early warning of the Indian Ocean Dipole using climate network analysis

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an air–sea coupled phenomenon over the tropical Indian Ocean, has substantial impacts on the climate, ecosystems, and society. Due to the winter predictability barrier, however, a reliable prediction of the IOD has been limited to 3 or 4 mo in advance. Our work approaches this problem from a new data-driven perspective: the climate network analysis. Using this network-based method, an efficient early warning signal for the IOD event was revealed in boreal winter. Our approach can correctly predict the IOD events one calendar year in advance (from December of the previous year) with a hit rate of higher than 70%, which strongly outperforms current dynamic models.

In recent years, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has received much attention in light of its substantial impacts on both the climate system and humanity. Due to its complexity, however, a reliable prediction of the IOD is still a great challenge. In this study, climate network analysis was employed to investigate whether there are early warning signals prior to the start of IOD events. An enhanced seesaw tendency in sea surface temperature (SST) among a large number of grid points between the dipole regions in the tropical Indian Ocean was revealed in boreal winter, which can be used to forewarn the potential occurrence of the IOD in the coming year. We combined this insight with the indicator of the December equatorial zonal wind in the tropical Indian Ocean to propose a network-based predictor that clearly outperforms the current dynamic models. Of the 15 IOD events over the past 37 y (1984 to 2020), 11 events were correctly predicted from December of the previous year, i.e., a hit rate of higher than 70%, and the false alarm rate was around 35%. This network-based approach suggests a perspective for better understanding and predicting the IOD.

Regional impacts of COVID-19 on carbon dioxide detected worldwide from space

Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric signals are smaller than and obscured by climate variability in atmospheric transport and biospheric fluxes, notably that related to the 2019–2020 Indian Ocean Dipole. Monitoring CO₂ anomalies and distinguishing human and climatic causes thus remain a new frontier in Earth system science. We show that the impact of short-term regional changes in fossil fuel emissions on CO₂ concentrations was observable from space. Starting in February and continuing through May, column CO₂ over many of the world’s largest emitting regions was 0.14 to 0.62 parts per million less than expected in a pandemic-free scenario, consistent with reductions of 3 to 13% in annual global emissions. Current spaceborne technologies are therefore approaching levels of accuracy and precision needed to support climate mitigation strategies with future missions expected to meet those needs.

Indian Ocean Dipole leads to Atlantic Niño

Atlantic Niño is the Atlantic equivalent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and it has prominent impacts on regional and global climate. Existing studies suggest that the Atlantic Niño may arise from local atmosphere-ocean interaction and is sometimes triggered by the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), with overall weak ENSO contribution. By analyzing observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments, here we show that the Atlantic Niño can be induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We find that the enhanced rainfall in the western tropical Indian Ocean during positive IOD weakens the easterly trade winds over the tropical Atlantic, causing warm anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic basin and therefore triggering the Atlantic Niño. Our finding suggests that the cross-basin impact from the tropical Indian Ocean plays a more important role in affecting interannual climate variability than previously thought.

The Atlantic Niño is an important mode of tropical Atlantic variability that influences the climate conditions in surrounding areas. Here, the authors use observational data and model simulations to show that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole can trigger Atlantic Niño events.

Modern and sub-fossil corals suggest reduced temperature variability in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the medieval climate anomaly

We present two 40 year records of monthly coral Sr/Ca ratios from the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole. A modern coral covers the period from 1968 to 2007. A sub-fossil coral derives from the medieval climate anomaly (MCA) and spans 1100-1140 AD. The modern coral records SST variability in the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole. A strong correlation is also found between coral Sr/Ca and the IOD index. The correlation with ENSO is asymmetric: the coral shows a moderate correlation with El Niño and a weak correlation with La Niña. The modern coral shows large interannual variability. Extreme IOD events cause cooling > 3 °C (1994, 1997) or ~ 2 °C (2006). In total, the modern coral indicates 32 warm/cool events, with 16 cool and 16 warm events. The MCA coral shows 24 warm/cool events, with 14 cool and 10 warm events. Only one cool event could be comparable to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2006. The seasonal cycle of the MCA coral is reduced (< 50% of to the modern) and the skewness of the Sr/Ca data is lower. This suggests a deeper thermocline in the eastern Indian Ocean associated with a La Niña-like mean state in the Indo-Pacific during the MCA.

Sea Surface Temperature Variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean during the ENSO and IOD Events in 2016 and 2017

2016 and 2017 were marked by strong El Niño and weak La Niña events, respectively, in the tropical East Pacific Ocean. The strong El Niño and weak La Niña events in the Pacific significantly impacted the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and were followed by extreme negative and weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases in 2016 and 2017, which triggered floods in the Indian subcontinent and drought conditions in East Africa. The IOD is an irregular and periodic oscillation in the Indian Ocean, which has attracted much attention in the last two decades due to its impact on the climate in surrounding landmasses. Much work has been done in the past to investigate global climate change and its impact on the evolution of IOD. The dynamic behind it, however, is still not well understood. The present study, using various satellite datasets, examined and analyzed the dynamics behind these events and their impacts on SST variability in the TIO. For this study, the monthly mean SST data was provided by NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST). SST anomalies were measured on the basis of 30-year mean daily climatology (1981–2010). It was determined that the eastern and western poles of the TIO play quite different roles during the sequence of negative and positive IOD phases. The analysis of air-sea interactions and the relationship between wind and SST suggested that SST is primarily controlled by wind force in the West pole. On the other hand, the high SST that occurred during the negative IOD phase induced local convection and westerly wind anomalies via the Bjerknes feedback mechanism. The strong convection, which was confined to the (warm) eastern equatorial Indian Ocean was accompanied by east–west SST anomalies that drove a series of downwelling Kelvin waves that deepened the thermocline in the east. Another notable feature of this study was its observation of weak upwelling along the Omani–Arabian coast, which warmed the SST by 1 °C in the summer of 2017 (as compared to 2016). This warming led to increased precipitation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during the summer of 2017. The results of the present work will be important for the study of monsoons and may be useful in predicting both droughts and floods in landmasses in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean, especially in the Indian subcontinent and East African regions.

Impacts of teleconnection patterns on South America climate

Oceanic heat sources disturb the atmosphere, which, to come back to its initial state, disperses waves. These waves affect the climate in remote regions, characterizing the teleconnection patterns. In this study, we describe eight teleconnection patterns that affect South America climate: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD), the South Atlantic Dipole (SAD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Precipitation and winds at 850-hPa anomalies, considering these teleconnection patterns in ENSO neutral periods, are also presented. Overall, southeastern South America and the north sector of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil are the most affected areas by the teleconnection patterns. In general, there is a precipitation dipole pattern between these regions during each teleconnection pattern.

Upwelling Impact on Sardinella lemuru during the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Bali Strait, Indonesia

Understanding the impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on fishery around Indonesia is important as the fishery resources are small compared to the demand. In this study, we analyzed the effect of positive and negative phases of IOD on chlorophyll-a concentration and the catch of Sardinella lemuru in the Bali Strait. Data are based on field surveys in the Bali Strait during the positive and negative phase of IOD and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Surface Chlorophyll (SSC) obtained from the analysis of satellite images. The results suggest that SSC concentration in the strait significantly correlates with the positive and negative phase of IOD, possibly through a change of upwelling and downwelling there. It is suggested that the change of phytoplankton biomass due to positive IOD would result in an increase of Sardinella lemuru in the Bali Strait. This research has direct implications as important information for the government in planning lemuru fisheries management in the Bali Strait based on oceanographic studies and climate phenomena.

The unique mean seasonal cycle in the Indian Ocean anchors its various air-sea coupled modes across the basin

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean is complex and characterized by various air-sea coupled modes, which occur around El Niño/La Niña's peak phase (i.e. December-January-February, DJF). Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) develops over the tropical Indian Ocean and peaks in September-October-November (SON), while Ningaloo Niño, Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) and Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) occur respectively over northwest off Australia, subtropical and tropical Indian Ocean, during boreal winter to spring. The apparent contrast between their divergent regionality and convergent seasonality around DJF triggers the present study to examine the interaction between the local mean monsoonal cycle and the anomalous forcing from El Niño/La Niña. The diagnosis confirms that the Indian Ocean's unique complexity, including the monsoonal circulation over the tropics and the trade wind over the subtropical southern Indian Ocean, plays the fundamental role in anchoring the various regional air-sea coupled modes across the basin. The SST anomalies can be readily explained by the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) mechanism, which works together with other more regional-dependent dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms. This implies that El Niño/La Niña brings much predictability for the Indian Ocean variations.

A biological Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2019

The 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in the boreal autumn was the most serious IOD event of the century with reports of significant sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the east and west equatorial Indian Ocean. Observations of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) between 2012 and 2020 are used to study the significant biological dipole response that occurred in the equatorial Indian Ocean following the 2019 positive IOD event. For the first time, we propose, identify, characterize, and quantify the biological IOD. The 2019 positive IOD event led to anomalous biological activity in both the east IOD zone and west IOD zone. The average chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration reached over ~ 0.5 mg m^-3 in 2019 in comparison to the climatology Chl-a of ~ 0.3 mg m^-3 in the east IOD zone. In the west IOD zone, the biological activity was significantly depressed. The depressed Chl-a lasted until May 2020. The anomalous ocean biological activity in the east IOD zone was attributed to the advection of the higher-nutrient surface water due to enhanced upwelling. On the other hand, the dampened ocean biological activity in the west IOD zone was attributed to the stronger convergence of the surface waters than that in a normal year.

Simulating adaptation strategies to offset potential impacts of climate variability and change on maize yields in Embu County, Kenya

In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8°C is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8°C by end century under RCP 8.5. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21^st century. Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO₂ fertilization is included. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.

A Major Ecosystem Shift in Coastal East African Waters During the 1997/98 Super El Niño as Detected Using Remote Sensing Data

Under the impact of natural and anthropogenic climate variability, upwelling systems are known to change their properties leading to associated regime shifts in marine ecosystems. These often impact commercial fisheries and societies dependent on them. In a region where in situ hydrographic and biological marine data are scarce, this study uses a combination of remote sensing and ocean modelling to show how a stable seasonal upwelling off the Kenyan coast shifted into the territorial waters of neighboring Tanzania under the influence of the unique 1997/98 El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. The formation of an anticyclonic gyre adjacent to the Kenyan/Tanzanian coast led to a reorganization of the surface currents and caused the southward migration of the Somali–Zanzibar confluence zone and is attributed to anomalous wind stress curl over the central Indian Ocean. This caused the lowest observed chlorophyll-a over the North Kenya banks (Kenya), while it reached its historical maximum off Dar Es Salaam (Tanzanian waters). We demonstrate that this situation is specific to the 1997/98 El Niño when compared with other the super El-Niño events of 1972,73, 1982–83 and 2015–16. Despite the lack of available fishery data in the region, the local ecosystem changes that the shift of this upwelling may have caused are discussed based on the literature. The likely negative impacts on local fish stocks in Kenya, affecting fishers’ livelihoods and food security, and the temporary increase in pelagic fishery species’ productivity in Tanzania are highlighted. Finally, we discuss how satellite observations may assist fisheries management bodies to anticipate low productivity periods, and mitigate their potentially negative economic impacts.

Differential Influences of Teleconnections from the Indian and Pacific Oceans on Rainfall Variability in Southeast Asia

This study investigates the individual and combined impacts of El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the Southeast Asia (SEA) rainfall variability. Using composite and partial correlation techniques, it is shown that both inter-annual events have individually distinct impacts on the SEA rainfall anomaly distribution. The results showed that the impacts of the co-occurrence of El Niño and IOD events are significant compared to the individual effects of pure El Niño or pure IOD. During June-July-August and September-October-November, the individual impacts of the pure El Niño and IOD events are similar but less significant. Both events caused negative impacts over the southern part of SEA during June-July-August (JJA) and propagated northeastward/eastward during September-October-November (SON). Thus, there are significant negative impacts over the southern part of SEA during the co-occurrence of both events. The differential impacts on the anomalous rainfall patterns are due to the changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) surrounding the region. Additionally, the differences are also related to the anomalous regional atmospheric circulations that interact with the regional SST. The anomalous Walker circulation that connects the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean also plays a significant role in determining the regional anomalous rainfall patterns.

Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean

Presently, the Indian Ocean (IO) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations. This may change under greenhouse warming, but the mechanisms remain uncertain, thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes. Using climate model simulations, we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate variability capable of generating unprecedented sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations across the IO. This mode, which is inhibited under present-day conditions, becomes active in climate states with a shallow thermocline and vigorous upwelling, consistent with the predictions of continued greenhouse warming. These predictions are supported by modeling and proxy evidence of an active mode during glacial intervals that favored such a state. Because of its impact on hydrological variability, the emergence of such a mode would become a first-order source of climate-related risks for the densely populated IO rim.

Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability

Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land-sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.

Lag effect of climatic variables on dengue burden in India

Dengue is a widespread vector-borne disease believed to affect between 100 and 390 million people every year. The interaction between vector, host and pathogen is influenced by various climatic factors and the relationship between dengue and climatic conditions has been poorly explored in India. This study explores the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and dengue cases in India. Additionally, distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the delayed effects of climatic factors on dengue cases. The weekly dengue cases reported by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) over India during the period 2010-2017 were analysed. The study shows that dengue cases usually follow a seasonal pattern, with most cases reported in August and September. Both temperature and rainfall were positively associated with the number of dengue cases. The precipitation shows the higher transmission risk of dengue was observed between 8 and 15 weeks of lag. The highest relative risk (RR) of dengue was observed at 60 mm rainfall with a 12-week lag period when compared with 40 and 80 mm rainfall. The RR of dengue tends to increase with increasing mean temperature above 24 °C. The largest transmission risk of dengue was observed at 30 °C with a 0-3 weeks of lag. Similarly, the transmission risk increases more than twofold when the minimum temperature reaches 26 °C with a 2-week lag period. The dengue cases and El Niño were positively correlated with a 3-6 months lag period. The significant correlation observed between the IOD and dengue cases was shown for a 0-2 months lag period.

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean^1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century⁵ and may continue to intensify in a warming world⁶. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models⁷ and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which-together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling-may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.

Influence of El Niño events on sea surface salinity over the central equatorial Indian Ocean

The El Niño event is a major large-scale air-sea interaction phenomenon over the tropical Pacific region. Previous studies classified El Niño into three types - canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki I, and El Niño Modoki II. This research reveals that different types of El Niño present dramatic effects on the interannual variability of sea surface salinity over the central equatorial Indian Ocean in the boreal autumn. The decreasing (increasing) sea surface salinity during the canonical El Niño and the EI Niño Modoki I (the EI Niño Modoki II) events is identified. The salinity budget analysis is performed to identify the dominant factors responsible for the variability of sea surface salinity over the central Indian Ocean. The results indicate that the wind-driven anomalous zonal advection plays an important role in sea surface salinity variability during the El Niño events associated with the forcing from the anomalous Walker circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

On Tanzania’s Precipitation Climatology, Variability, and Future Projection

We investigate historical and projected precipitation in Tanzania using observational and climate model data. Precipitation in Tanzania is highly variable in both space and time due to topographical variations, coastal influences, and the presence of lakes. Annual and seasonal precipitation trend analyses from 1961 to 2016 show maximum rainfall decline in Tanzania during the long rainy season in the fall (March–May), and an increasing precipitation trend in northwestern Tanzania during the short rainy season in the spring (September–November). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to Tanzania’s precipitation patterns shows a stronger correlation with warmer temperatures in the western Indian Ocean than with the eastern-central Pacific Ocean. Years with decreasing precipitation in Tanzania appear to correspond with increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have a greater effect on rainfall variability in Tanzania than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) does. Overall, the climate model ensemble projects increasing precipitation trend in Tanzania that is opposite with the historical decrease in precipitation. This observed drying trend also contradicts a slightly increasing precipitation trend from climate models for the same historical time period, reflecting challenges faced by modern climate models in representing Tanzania’s precipitation.

Surface chlorophyll anomalies associated with Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño Southern Oscillation in North Indian Ocean: a case study of 2006-2007 event

North Indian Ocean witnesses varied dynamical response due to independent climate modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)/El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and their co-occurrences. These modes have a significant impact on ocean productivity, which in turn shows feedback for the strengthening of these patterns. Keeping this in view, the present work attempts to analyze the biological activity during the combined influence of positive IOD with El Niño during 2006-2007 event. To divulge the biological variability along with the dynamical response, the study includes intra-annual variability surface chlorophyll anomaly with D20 anomaly using satellite observations. Here, the individual role of IOD and ENSO on both surface chlorophyll and D20 is segregated through partial regression analysis for a period of 25 years (1993-2017). By the regression method, it can be seen varied chlorophyll response for the 2006-2007 event with the IOD forcing leads to the major spatial and temporal variability with positive anomalies in Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) (generally oligotrophic), Northwestern Bay of Bengal (NWBoB), and Northwestern Arabian Sea (NAS2) where production begins in fall intermonsoon and peaks up during November. On the other hand, negative anomalies are observed around the southern tip of India (SBoB) and the Northern Arabian Sea (NAS1). While ENSO depicts the high surface chlorophyll variability in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO1, WIO2) with negative anomalies of surface chlorophyll. This study observed an asymmetric response of chlorophyll variability over the North Indian Ocean during the 1997-1998 and 2006-2007 events with a major influence of IOD mode compared with the El Niño. Therefore, understanding the chlorophyll anomalies during different climate modes will help us to better understand the interannual variability and improve the predictability of chlorophyll productivity regions.