Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence After Negative Colonoscopy in the State of Utah: The Effect of Family History

Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality After Negative Colonoscopy Screening Results

Importance

The current recommendation for a 10-year rescreening interval after a negative colonoscopy screening (NCS) result has been questioned, with some studies showing a persistently lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) after NCS results.

Objective

To examine long-term CRC incidence and mortality after NCS results (ie, no presence of CRC or polyps) and according to a risk score based on major demographic and lifestyle risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study, 3 prospective US population-based cohorts from the Nurses' Health Study, Nurses' Health Study II, and Health Professionals Follow-up Study were followed up from 1988 and 1991 to 2020. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from the January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2018, cycle were used to compare the risk profile distribution with that of the general US population. Data analysis was performed from October 2023 to August 2024.

Exposures

Time-varying status of NCS results and risk score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incidence and mortality of CRC.

Results

A total of 195 453 participants (median [IQR] age, 44 [37-56] years at baseline; 81% female) were followed up for a median (IQR) of 12 (6-20) years. Among 81 151 individuals with NCS results and 114 302 without endoscopy, 394 and 2229 CRC cases and 167 and 637 CRC deaths, respectively, were documented. Negative colonoscopy screening results were consistently associated with lower CRC incidence (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.44-0.58) and mortality (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.46-0.70) for 20 years. Among individuals with NCS results, those with an intermediate risk (scores, 6-7) and low risk (scores, 0-5) did not reach the 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC (0.78%) of the high-risk individuals (scores, 8-12) until 16 and 25 years after initial screening, respectively.

Conclusion and Relevance

These findings provide evidence for shared decision-making between patients and physicians to consider extending the rescreening intervals after an NCS result beyond the currently recommended 10 years, particularly for individuals with a low-risk profile. These results showed, as a proof of concepts, the importance of considering known CRC risk factors when making decisions for colonoscopy rescreening.

Combining Colonoscopy With Fecal Immunochemical Test Can Improve Current Familial Colorectal Cancer Colonoscopy Surveillance: A Modelling Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The authors assessed whether familial colorectal cancer (FCRC) surveillance in individuals without hereditary CRC can be optimized METHODS: The Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal Cancer (ASCCA)-FCRC model simulates CRC development in individuals with a family history of CRC at 2-fold and 4-fold increased CRC risk compared with the general population. The authors simulated a strategy without surveillance, the current Dutch guideline (5-yearly colonoscopy between ages 45 and 75 years), and the following 3 sets of alternative strategies: colonoscopy surveillance, surveillance combining colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and FIT-based surveillance. Each set included a range of strategies differing in age range and test interval. The optimal strategy was defined as the strategy with highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) satisfying all of the following criteria: in the (near-)efficiency area of the cost-effectiveness frontier and compared with current surveillance; noninferior effectiveness; no substantial increase in colonoscopy burden; and not more expensive.

RESULTS

The optimal strategy was 10-yearly colonoscopy with 2-yearly FIT between colonoscopies from ages 40 to 80 years for both 2-fold and 4-fold increased CRC risk. At 2-fold risk, this strategy prevented 0.8 more CRC deaths, gained 15.8 more QALYs at 731 fewer colonoscopies, and saved €98,000 over the lifetime of 1000 individuals compared with current surveillance. At 4-fold risk, figures were 2.1 more CRC deaths prevented, 37.0 more QALYs gained at 567 fewer colonoscopies, and €127,000 lower costs. Current surveillance was not (near-)efficient.

CONCLUSIONS

FIT could play an important role in FCRC surveillance. Surveillance with 10-yearly colonoscopy and 2-yearly FIT between colonoscopies from ages 40 to 80 years increased QALYs and reduced colonoscopy burden and costs compared with current FCRC surveillance.

Longer Interval Between First Colonoscopy With Negative Findings for Colorectal Cancer and Repeat Colonoscopy

Importance

For individuals without a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC), colonoscopy screening every 10 years is recommended to reduce CRC incidence and mortality. However, debate exists about whether and for how long this 10-year interval could be safely expanded.

Objective

To assess how many years after a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC a second colonoscopy can be performed.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study leveraged Swedish nationwide register-based data to examine CRC diagnoses and CRC-specific mortality among individuals without a family history of CRC. The exposed group included individuals who had a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC at age 45 to 69 years between 1990 and 2016. The control group included individuals matched by sex, birth year, and baseline age (ie, the age of their matched exposed individual when the exposed individual's first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC was performed). Individuals in the control group either did not have a colonoscopy during the follow-up or underwent colonoscopy that resulted in a CRC diagnosis. Up to 18 controls were matched with each exposed individual. Individuals were followed up from 1990 to 2018, and data were analyzed from November 2022 to November 2023.

Exposure

A first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, defined as a first colonoscopy without a diagnosis of colorectal polyp, adenoma, carcinoma in situ, or CRC before or within 6 months after screening.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were CRC diagnosis and CRC-specific death. The 10-year standardized incidence ratio and standardized mortality ratio were calculated to compare risks of CRC and CRC-specific death in the exposed and control groups based on different follow-up screening intervals.

Results

The sample included 110 074 individuals (65 147 females [59.2%]) in the exposed group and 1 981 332 (1 172 646 females [59.2%]) in the control group. The median (IQR) age for individuals in both groups was 59 (52-64) years. During up to 29 years of follow-up of individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, 484 incident CRCs and 112 CRC-specific deaths occurred. After a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, the risks of CRC and CRC-specific death in the exposed group were significantly lower than those in their matched controls for 15 years. At 15 years after a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, the 10-year standardized incidence ratio was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54-0.94) and the 10-year standardized mortality ratio was 0.55 (95% CI, 0.29-0.94). In other words, the 10-year cumulative risk of CRC in year 15 in the exposed group was 72% that of the 10-year cumulative risk of CRC in the control group. Extending the colonoscopy screening interval from 10 to 15 years in individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC could miss the early detection of only 2 CRC cases and the prevention of 1 CRC-specific death per 1000 individuals, while potentially avoiding 1000 colonoscopies.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that for the population without a family history of CRC, the 10-year interval between colonoscopy screenings for individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC could potentially be extended to 15 years. A longer interval between colonoscopy screenings could be beneficial in avoiding unnecessary invasive examinations.

The durability of previous examinations for cancer: Danish nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Patients previously examined for cancer with a negative result may present in general practice with ongoing or new symptoms or signs suggestive of cancer. This paper explores the potential existence of a relatively safe period for cancer occurrence after receiving negative examination results for specific types of cancer, including lung (CT thorax), upper gastrointestinal (gastroscopy), colorectal (colonoscopy), bladder (cystoscopy), and breast (clinical mammography).

DESIGN

Register-based time-to-event analyses.

SETTING

Denmark.

SUBJECTS

All 3.3 million citizens aged 30-85 years who on January first, 2017, had not previously been diagnosed with the specific type of cancer were categorized based on the time since their most recent examination.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Using 1-year follow-up, we calculated the age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios of being diagnosed with the related cancer, with non-examined individuals as reference. Negative examination results were defined as the absence of a cancer diagnosis within 6 months following the examination.

RESULTS

Previous negative examination results were common, also among those diagnosed with cancer during follow-up. For 10 years after a negative colonoscopy the risk of diagnosing a colorectal cancer was nearly halved. However, already 1 year after a clinical mammography and 2 years after a CT thorax the risk of diagnosing the related cancers was significantly higher among those with a previous negative result compared to non-examined individuals.

CONCLUSION

This study did not identify a post-examination period in which the cancer risk, compared to non-examined individuals, was sufficiently low to confidently rule out any of the investigated cancers.

Low Incidence of Colorectal Advanced Neoplasia During Surveillance in Individuals with a Family History of Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) is used to stratify individuals into risk categories which determine timing of initial screening and ongoing CRC surveillance. Evidence for long-term CRC risk following a normal index colonoscopy in family history populations is limited.

AIMS

To assess the incidence of advanced neoplasia and associated risk factors in a population undergoing surveillance colonoscopies due to family history of CRC.

METHODS

Surveillance colonoscopy findings were examined in 425 individuals with a family history of CRC, a normal index colonoscopy and a minimum of 10 years of follow-up colonoscopies. Advanced neoplasia risk was determined for three CRC family history categories (near-average, medium and high-risk), accounting for demographics and time after the first colonoscopy.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 13.5 years (IQR 11.5-16.0), with an incidence of advanced neoplasia of 14.35% (61/425). The number of affected relatives and age of CRC diagnosis in the youngest relative did not predict the risk of advanced neoplasia (p > 0.05), with no significant differences in advanced neoplasia incidence between the family history categories (p = 0.16). Patients ≥ 60 years showed a fourfold (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.33-12.89) higher advanced neoplasia risk during surveillance than those < 40 years at index colonoscopy. With each subsequent negative colonoscopy, the risk of advanced neoplasia at ongoing surveillance was reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of advanced neoplasia was low (14.35%), regardless of the family history risk category, with older age being the main risk for advanced neoplasia. Delaying onset of colonoscopy or lengthening surveillance intervals could be a more efficient use of resources in this population.

The Family Lifestyles, Actions and Risk Education (FLARE) study: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial of a sun protection intervention for children of melanoma survivors

BACKGROUND

Children of parents who had melanoma are more likely to develop skin cancer themselves owing to shared familial risks. The prevention of sunburns and promotion of sun-protective behaviors are essential to control cancer among these children. The Family Lifestyles, Actions and Risk Education (FLARE) intervention will be delivered as part of a randomized controlled trial to support parent-child collaboration to improve sun safety outcomes among children of melanoma survivors.

METHODS

FLARE is a two-arm randomized controlled trial design that will recruit dyads comprised of a parent who is a melanoma survivor and their child (aged 8-17 years). Dyads will be randomized to receive FLARE or standard skin cancer prevention education, which both entail 3 telehealth sessions with an interventionist. FLARE is guided by Social-Cognitive and Protection Motivation theories to target child sun protection behaviors through parent and child perceived risk for melanoma, problem-solving skills, and development of a family skin protection action plan to promote positive modeling of sun protection behaviors. At multiple assessments through one-year post-baseline, parents and children complete surveys to assess frequency of reported child sunburns, child sun protection behaviors and melanin-induced surface skin color change, and potential mediators of intervention effects (e.g., parent-child modeling).

CONCLUSION

The FLARE trial addresses the need for melanoma preventive interventions for children with familial risk for the disease. If efficacious, FLARE could help to mitigate familial risk for melanoma among these children by teaching practices which, if enacted, decrease sunburn occurrence and improve children's use of well-established sun protection strategies.

At What Age Should We Stop Colorectal Cancer Screening? When Is Enough, Enough?

There is strong evidence that colorectal cancer screening can reduce both colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Guidelines recommend screening for individuals age 45 to 75 years, but are less certain about the benefits after age 75 years. Dalmat and colleagues provide evidence that individuals with a prior negative colonoscopy 10 years or more prior to reaching age 76 to 85 years, had a low risk of colorectal cancer, and would be less likely to benefit from further screening. It is important to note that this study population did not include individuals with a family history of colon cancer or a personal history of having high-risk adenomas. These data suggest that a negative colonoscopy can be an effective risk-stratification tool when discussing further screening with elderly patients. See related article by Dalmat et al., p. 37.

The Risk of Metachronous Advanced Neoplasia After Colonoscopy in Patients Aged 40-49 Years Compared With That in Patients Aged 50-59 Years

INTRODUCTION

This study investigated the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia (AN) after colonoscopy in individuals aged 40-49 years compared with that in individuals aged 50-59 years.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed among Kaiser Permanente Northern California members aged 40-59 years who had their first (index) colonoscopy in 2010-2013. Participants were followed up until death, disenrollment, AN on surveillance colonoscopy, or December 31, 2018. The risk for the development of AN was estimated using the Cox regression, adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

The study included 11,374 patients (2,396 aged 40-49 years and 8,978 aged 50-59 years). When comparing the 40-49 years group with the 50-59 years group, AN was detected in 2.2% vs 4.4% ( P = 0.0003) on surveillance colonoscopy after index colonoscopy finding of no adenoma, in 4.6% vs 7.0% ( P = 0.03) after a finding of nonadvanced adenoma (NAA), and in 7.9% vs 11.7% ( P = 0.06) after a finding of advanced adenoma (AA), respectively. Compared with the 50-59 years group, the 40-49 years group had a lower risk of metachronous AN when no adenoma was detected on index colonoscopy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.83) and no difference when NAA (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.54-1.24) or AA (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.51-1.31) was detected.

DISCUSSION

Compared with patients aged 50-59 years, patients aged 40-49 years may have a lower risk of developing metachronous AN when no adenoma is detected on index colonoscopy and a similar risk when NAA or AA is detected. These data suggest current surveillance colonoscopy guidelines may be applicable to patients aged 40-49 years who undergo colonoscopy.

Colorectal Cancer After Screening Colonoscopy: 10-Year Incidence by Site and Detection Rate at First Repeat Colonoscopy

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to describe cumulative colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence after screening colonoscopy stratified by tumor location, age, and sex as well as CRC detection rate at first repeat colonoscopy.

METHODS

Using the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database, we included persons with screening colonoscopy and assessed cumulative CRC incidence after baseline screening colonoscopy with snare polypectomy (cohort 1) and without polypectomy (cohort 2). We also determined the CRC detection rate at first repeat colonoscopy by time since screening colonoscopy.

RESULTS

Overall, 1,095,381 persons were included. The 10-year cumulative CRC incidence was 1.5% in cohort 1 and 0.6% in cohort 2. The proportion of proximal CRC increased with age: In women of cohort 1, 47% of CRCs in the age group 55-64 years were proximal (men: 42%) while in the age group 65-74 years, this proportion was 55% (men: 49%). In cohort 2, similar patterns were observed. In cohort 1, the CRC detection rate at first repeat colonoscopy among persons examined within 6-8 years after screening colonoscopy was more than twice as high compared with those examined within 4-6 years (1.7% vs 0.8%).

DISCUSSION

Among persons followed up after screening colonoscopy, we observed a steadily increasing predominance of proximal CRC, and this shift showed distinct patterns by age and sex. Because our study suggests higher CRC detection rates among persons with a later repeat colonoscopy, the role of delayed surveillance and the benefit of a reminder system should be explored.

Familial colorectal cancer

The introduction of average-risk colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs means that many subjects with family history of CRC and without well-described inherited syndromes can benefit from these public health policies. Therefore, the definition of which individuals should be named under the umbrella of the term "familial CRC" should be reconsidered to include only those who are outside of the protection of population-based screening and need to be moved towards a more intensive surveillance strategy. Two subgroups have been reported as having a high enough CRC risk to be included within the term "familial risk of CRC": individuals who have ≥1 first degree relative (FDR) with CRC diagnosed at age <50 years, and those who have ≥2 FDRs with CRC. Colonoscopy-based screening starting at age 40 years is proposed as the most accepted recommendation for these individuals. Finally, the evolution of Lynch syndrome screening from clinical criteria to tumor tissue analysis and new tools for screening pathogenic gene mutations associated with cancer susceptibility in individuals with early-onset CRC might help to reduce misclassification of familial CRC.

Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality After Colonoscopy Screening According to Individuals' Risk Profiles

BACKGROUND

It remains unknown whether the benefit of colonoscopy screening against colorectal cancer (CRC) and the optimal age to start screening differ by CRC risk profile.

METHODS

Among 75 873 women and 42 875 men, we defined a CRC risk score (0-8) based on family history, aspirin, height, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol, and diet. We calculated colonoscopy screening-associated hazard ratios and absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for CRC incidence and mortality and age-specific CRC cumulative incidence according to risk score. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

During a median of 26 years of follow-up, we documented 2407 CRC cases and 874 CRC deaths. Although the screening-associated hazard ratio did not vary by risk score, the ARRs in multivariable-adjusted 10-year CRC incidence more than doubled for individuals with scores 6-8 (ARR = 0.34%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.26% to 0.42%) compared with 0-2 (ARR = 0.15%, 95% CI = 0.12% to 0.18%, Ptrend < .001). Similar results were found for CRC mortality (ARR = 0.22%, 95% CI = 0.21% to 0.24% vs 0.08%, 95% CI = 0.07% to 0.08%, Ptrend < .001). The ARR in mortality of distal colon and rectal cancers was fourfold higher for scores 6-8 than 0-2 (distal colon cancer: ARR = 0.08%, 95% CI = 0.07% to 0.08% vs 0.02%, 95% CI = 0.02% to 0.02%, Ptrend < .001; rectal cancer: ARR = 0.08%, 95% CI = 0.08% to 0.09% vs 0.02%, 95% CI = 0.02% to 0.03%, Ptrend < .001). When using age 45 years as the benchmark to start screening, individuals with risk scores of 0-2, 3, 4, 5, and 6-8 attained the threshold CRC risk level (10-year cumulative risk of 0.47%) at age 51 years, 48 years, 45 years, 42 years, and 38 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The absolute benefit of colonoscopy screening is more than twice higher for individuals with the highest than lowest CRC risk profile. Individuals with a high- and low-risk profile may start screening up to 6-7 years earlier and later, respectively, than the recommended age of 45 years.

Colorectal Cancer Incidence After Colonoscopy at Ages 45-49 or 50-54 Years

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence at ages younger than 50 years is increasing, leading to proposals to lower the CRC screening initiation age to 45 years. Data on the effectiveness of CRC screening at ages 45-49 years are lacking.

METHODS

We studied the association between undergoing colonoscopy at ages 45-49 or 50-54 years and CRC incidence in a retrospective population-based cohort study using Florida's linked Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project databases with mandated reporting from 2005 to 2017 and Cox models extended for time-varying exposure.

RESULTS

Among 195,600 persons with and 2.6 million without exposure to colonoscopy at ages 45-49 years, 276 and 4844 developed CRC, resulting in CRC incidence rates of 20.8 (95% CI, 18.5-23.4) and 30.6 (95% CI, 29.8-31.5) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Among 660,248 persons with and 2.4 million without exposure to colonoscopy at ages 50-54 years, 798 and 6757 developed CRC, resulting in CRC incidence rates of 19.0 (95% CI, 17.7-20.4) and 51.9 (95% CI, 50.7-53.1) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios for incident CRC after undergoing compared with not undergoing colonoscopy were 0.50 (95% CI, 0.44-0.56) at ages 45-49 years and 0.32 (95% CI, 0.29-0.34) at ages 50-54 years. The results were similar for women and men (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.40-0.57 and hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43-0.62 at ages 45-49 years, and hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.31-0.39 and hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.26-0.32 at ages 50-54 years, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Colonoscopy at ages 45-49 or 50-54 years was associated with substantial decreases in subsequent CRC incidence. These findings can inform screening guidelines.

Long-Term Incidence and Mortality of Colorectal Cancer After Endoscopic Biopsy With Normal Mucosa: A Swedish-Matched Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Endoscopic screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. Individuals with a negative result are recommended to undergo rescreening within a 10-year interval, but evidence supporting this advice is limited.

METHODS

We performed a matched cohort study using prospectively collected data from 88,798 individuals in Sweden with normal mucosa at the first colorectal biopsy (aged ≥50 years) in the nationwide gastrointestinal epidemiology strengthened by histopathology reports (ESPRESSO) (1965-2016) and 424,150 matched reference individuals from the general population. Cox proportional hazards regression estimated multivariable hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CRC incidence and mortality of incident CRCs up to 44 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

In the normal biopsy and reference groups, respectively, the 20-year incidences of CRC were 3.03% and 4.53% and the 20-year mortalities of incident CRC were 0.89% and 1.54%. The multivariable hazard ratio comparing the normal biopsy and reference groups was 0.62 for CRC incidence (95% CI = 0.58-0.66, P < 0.001) and 0.56 for mortality of incident CRC (95% CI = 0.49-0.64, P < 0.001). When assessed by time interval after biopsy, lower CRC incidence and mortality were observed throughout the follow-up. The association seemed weaker for proximal colon cancer than for rectal and distal colon cancer.

DISCUSSION

A normal colorectal biopsy was associated with lower CRC incidence and mortality for at least 20 years after the examination. Our findings confirm previous data and suggest that the screening intervals after a normal colonoscopy could be longer than the commonly recommended 10 years. It may be time to open the discussion for a revision of the international guidelines.

Use of Polygenic Risk Scores to Select Screening Intervals After Negative Findings From Colonoscopy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could help to define starting ages for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. However, the role of PRS in determining the length of screening interval after negative findings from colonoscopies is unclear. We aimed to evaluate CRC risk according to PRS and time since last negative colonoscopy.

METHODS

We collected data from 3827 cases and 2641 CRC-free controls in a population-based case-control study in Germany. We constructed a polygenic risk scoring system, based on 90 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, associated with risk of CRC in people of European descent. Participants were classified as having low, medium, or high genetic risk according to tertiles of PRSs among controls. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess CRC risk according to PRS and time since last negative colonoscopy.

RESULTS

Compared to individuals without colonoscopy in the low PRS category, a 42%-85% lower risk of CRC was observed for individuals who had a negative finding from colonoscopy within 10 years. Beyond 10 years after a negative finding from colonoscopy, significantly lower risk only persisted for the low and medium PRS groups, but not for the high PRS group. Adjusted odds ratios were 0.44 (95% CI, 0.29-0.68), 0.51 (95% CI, 0.34-0.77), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.58-1.23) in the low, medium, and high PRS group, respectively. Within any time interval, risks were lower for distal than for proximal CRCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on findings from a population-based case-control study, the recommended 10-year screening interval for colonoscopy may not need to be shortened among people with high PRSs, but could potentially be prolonged for people with low and medium PRSs. Studies are needed to address personalized time intervals for repeat colonoscopies in average-risk screening cohorts.

Evidenced-Based Screening Strategies for a Positive Family History

The most commonly recognized high-risk group for colorectal cancer (CRC) is individuals with a positive family history. It is generally recognized that those with a first-degree relative (FDR) with CRC are at a 2-fold or higher risk of CRC or advanced neoplasia. FDRs of patients with advanced adenomas have a similarly increased risk. Accordingly, all major US guidelines recommend starting CRC screening by age 40 in these groups. Barriers to screening this group include patient lack of knowledge on family and polyp history, provider limitations in collecting family history, and insufficient application of guidelines.

The Case for High-Quality Colonoscopy Remaining a Premier Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategy in the United States

Most colorectal cancer screening in the United States occurs in the opportunistic setting, where screening is initiated by a patient-provider interaction. Colonoscopy provides the longest-interval protection, and high-quality colonoscopy is ideally suited to the opportunistic setting. Both detection and colonoscopic resection have improved as a result of intense scientific investigation. Further improvements in detection are expected with the introduction of artificial intelligence programs into colonoscopy platforms. We may expect recommended intervals or colonoscopy after negative examinations performed by high-quality detectors to expand beyond 10 years. Thus, high-quality colonoscopy remains an excellent approach to colorectal cancer screening in the opportunistic setting.

Use of Family History and Genetic Testing to Determine Risk of Colorectal Cancer

Approximately 35% of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) have a family history of the disease attributed to genetic factors, common exposures, or both. Some families with a history of CRC carry genetic variants that cause CRC with high or moderate penetrance, but these account for only 5% to 10% of CRC cases. Most families with a history of CRC and/or adenomas do not carry genetic variants associated with cancer syndromes; this is called common familial CRC. Our understanding of familial predisposition to CRC and cancer syndromes has increased rapidly due to advances in next-generation sequencing technologies. As a result, there has been a shift from genetic testing for specific inherited cancer syndromes based on clinical criteria alone, to simultaneous testing of multiple genes for cancer-associated variants. We summarize current knowledge of common familial CRC, provide an update on syndromes associated with CRC (including the nonpolyposis and polyposis types), and review current recommendations for CRC screening and surveillance. We also provide an approach to genetic evaluation and testing in clinical practice. Determination of CRC risk based on family cancer history and results of genetic testing can provide a personalized approach to cancer screening and prevention, with optimal use of colonoscopy to effectively decrease CRC incidence and mortality.

Reviewing the Evidence that Polypectomy Prevents Cancer

Colonoscopic polypectomy is fundamental to effective prevention of colorectal cancer. Polypectomy reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality by altering the natural history and progression of precancerous precursor polyps. Epidemiologic data from the United States, where colorectal cancer rates have been steadily declining in parallel with screening efforts, provide indisputable evidence about the effectiveness of polypectomy. Randomized controlled trials of fecal occult blood tests and flexible sigmoidoscopy, and observational colonoscopy studies, provide additional support. Longitudinal studies have shown variable levels of protection after polypectomy, highlighting the central importance of high quality and adequate surveillance of higher-risk patients.

Post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers identified by probabilistic and deterministic linkage: results in an Australian prospective cohort

OBJECTIVE

Post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs) are recognised as a critical quality indicator. Benchmarking of PCCRC rate has been hampered by the strong influence of different definitions and methodologies. We adopted a rigorous methodology with high-detail individual data to determine PCCRC rates in a prospective cohort representing a single jurisdiction.

SETTING

We performed a cohort study of individuals who underwent colonoscopy between 2001 and 2008 at a single centre serving Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and enclaving New South Wales (NSW) region. These individuals were linked to subsequent colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis, within 5 years of a negative colonoscopy, through regional cancer registries and hospital records using probabilistic and deterministic record linkage. All cases were verified by pathology review. Predictors of PCCRCs were extracted.

PARTICIPANTS

7818 individuals had a colonoscopy in the cohort. Linkage to cancer registries detected 384 and 98 CRCs for notification dates of 2001-2013 (ACT) and 2001-2010 (NSW). A further 55 CRCs were identified from a search of electronic medical records using International Classification of Diseases-10 diagnosis codes. After verification and exclusions, 385/537 CRCs (58% male) were included.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

PCCRC rates.

RESULTS

There were 15 PCCRCs in our cohort. The PCCRC incidence rate was 0.384/1000 person-years and the 5-year PCCRC risk was estimated as 0.192% (95% CI 0.095 to 0.289). The index colonoscopy prior to PCCRC was more likely to show diverticulosis (p=0.017 for association, OR 3.56, p=0.014) and have poor bowel preparation (p=0.017 for association, OR 4.19, p=0.009).

CONCLUSION

In this population-based cohort study, the PCCRC incidence rate was 0.384/1000 person-years and the 5-year PCCRC risk was 0.192%. These data show the 'real world' accuracy of colonoscopy for CRC exclusion.

Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Related Deaths After a Colonoscopy With Normal Findings

Importance

Guidelines recommend a 10-year rescreening interval after a colonoscopy with normal findings (negative colonoscopy results), but evidence supporting this recommendation is limited.

Objective

To examine the long-term risks of colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths after a negative colonoscopy result, in comparison with individuals unscreened, in a large, community-based setting.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in an integrated health care delivery organization serving more than 4 million members across Northern California. A total of 1 251 318 average-risk screening-eligible patients (age 50-75 years) between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2015, were included. The study was concluded on December 31, 2016.

Exposures

Screening was examined as a time-varying exposure; all participants contributed person-time unscreened until they were either screened or censored. If the screening received was a negative colonoscopy result, the participants contributed person-time in the negative colonoscopy results group until they were censored.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the hazard ratios (HRs) for colorectal cancer and related deaths were calculated according to time since negative colonoscopy result (or since cohort entry for those unscreened). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, Charlson comorbidity score, and body mass index.

Results

Of the 1 251 318 patients, 613 692 were men (49.0%); mean age was 55.6 (7.0) years. Compared with the unscreened participants, those with a negative colonoscopy result had a reduced risk of colorectal cancer and related deaths throughout the more than 12-year follow-up period, and although reductions in risk were attenuated with increasing years of follow-up, there was a 46% lower risk of colorectal cancer (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.31-0.94) and 88% lower risk of related deaths (hazard ratio, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.02-0.82) at the current guideline-recommended 10-year rescreening interval.

Conclusions and Relevance

A negative colonoscopy result in average-risk patients was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer and related deaths for more than 12 years after examination, compared with unscreened patients. Our study findings may be able to inform guidelines for rescreening after a negative colonoscopy result and future studies to evaluate the costs and benefits of earlier vs later rescreening intervals.