Population exposure to fine particles and estimated excess mortality in Finland from an East European wildfire episode

Fires as a source of annual ambient PM2.5 exposure and chronic health impacts in Europe

Chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5 is the largest environmental health risk in Europe. We used a chemical transport model and recent exposure response functions to simulate ambient PM2.5, contribution from fires and related health impacts over Europe from 1990 to 2019. Our estimation indicates that the excess death burden from exposure to ambient PM2.5 declined across Europe at a rate of 10,000 deaths per year, from 0.57 million (95 % confidence intervals: 0.44-0.75 million) in 1990 to 0.28 million (0.19-0.42 million) in the specified period. Among these excess deaths, approximately 99 % were among adults, while only around 1 % occurred among children. Our findings reveal a steady increase in fire mortality fractions (excess deaths from fires per 1000 deaths from ambient PM2.5) from 2 in 1990 to 13 in 2019. Notably, countries in Eastern Europe exhibited significantly higher fire mortality fractions and experienced more pronounced increases compared to those in Western and Central Europe. We performed sensitivity analyses by considering fire PM2.5 to be more toxic as compared to other sources, as indicated by recent studies. By considering fire PM2.5 to be more toxic than other PM2.5 sources results in an increased relative contribution of fires to excess deaths, reaching 2.5-13 % in 2019. Our results indicate the requirement of larger mitigation and adaptation efforts and more sustainable forest management policies to avert the rising health burden from fires.

Fire-Pollutant-Atmosphere Components and Its Impact on Mortality in Portugal During Wildfire Seasons

This study analyzed fire-pollutant-meteorological variables and their impact on cardio-respiratory mortality in Portugal during wildfire season. Data of burned area, particulate matter with a diameter of 10 or 2.5 μm (μm) or less (PM10, PM2.5), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, aerosol optical depth and mortality rates of Circulatory System Disease (CSD), Respiratory System Disease (RSD), Pneumonia (PNEU), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Asthma (ASMA), were used. Only the months of 2011-2020 wildfire season (June-July-August-September-October) with a burned area greater than 1,000 ha were considered. Principal component analysis was used on fire-pollutant-meteorological variables to create two indices called Pollutant-Burning Interaction (PBI) and Atmospheric-Pollutant Interaction (API). PBI was strongly correlated with the air pollutants and burned area while API was strongly correlated with temperature and relative humidity, and O3. Cluster analysis applied to PBI-API divided the data into two Clusters. Cluster 1 included colder and wetter months and higher NO2 concentration. Cluster 2 included warmer and dried months, and higher PM10, PM2.5, CO, and O3 concentrations. The clusters were subjected to Principal Component Linear Regression to better understand the relationship between mortality and PBI-API indices. Cluster 1 showed statistically significant (p-value < 0.05) correlation (r) between RSDxPBI (r RSD = 0.58) and PNEUxPBI (r PNEU = 0.67). Cluster 2 showed statistically significant correlations between RSDxPBI (r RSD = 0.48), PNEUxPBI (r PNEU = 0.47), COPDxPBI (r COPD = 0.45), CSDxAPI (r CSD = 0.70), RSDxAPI (r CSD = 0.71), PNEUxAPI (r PNEU = 0.49), and COPDxAPI (r PNEU = 0.62). Cluster 2 analysis indicates that the warmest, driest, and most polluted months of the wildfire season were associated with cardio-respiratory mortality.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Models Based on Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating Particulate Matter (PM2.5 and PM10) Concentrations

Despite extensive research on air pollution estimation/prediction, inter-country models for estimating air pollutant concentrations in Southeast Asia have not yet been fully developed and validated owing to the lack of air quality (AQ), emission inventory and meteorological data from different countries in the region. The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate two machine learning (ML)-based models (i.e., analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and random forest regression (RFR)) for estimating daily PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations in Brunei Darussalam. These models were first derived from past AQ and meteorological measurements in Singapore and then tested with AQ and meteorological data from Brunei Darussalam. The results show that the ANCOVA model (R2 = 0.94 and RMSE = 0.05 µg/m³ for PM_2.5, and R2 = 0.72 and RMSE = 0.09 µg/m³ for PM₁₀) could describe daily PM concentrations over 18 µg/m³ in Brunei Darussalam much better than the RFR model (R2 = 0.92 and RMSE = 0.04 µg/m³ for PM_2.5, and R2 = 0.86 and RMSE = 0.08 µg/m³ for PM₁₀). In conclusion, the derived models provide a satisfactory estimation of PM concentrations for both countries despite some limitations. This study shows the potential of the models for inter-country PM estimations in Southeast Asia.

Spring 2020 Atmospheric Aerosol Contamination over Kyiv City

Extraordinarily high aerosol contamination was observed in the atmosphere over the city of Kyiv, Ukraine, during the March–April 2020 period. The source of contamination was the large grass and forest fires in the northern part of Ukraine and the Kyiv region. The level of PM2.5 load was investigated using newly established AirVisual sensor mini-networks in five areas of the city. The aerosol data from the Kyiv AERONET sun-photometer site were analyzed for that period. Aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, and the aerosol particles properties (particle size distribution, single-scattering albedo, and complex refractive index) were analyzed using AERONET sun-photometer observations. The smoke particles observed at Kyiv site during the fires in general correspond to aerosol with optical properties of biomass burning aerosol. The variability of the optical properties and chemical composition indicates that the aerosol particles in the smoke plumes over Kyiv city were produced by different burning materials and phases of vegetation fires at different times. The case of enormous PM2.5 aerosol contamination in the Kyiv city reveals the need to implement strong measures for forest fire control and prevention in the Kyiv region, especially in its northwest part, where radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl disaster is still significant.

Long-Term Health Impacts of Wildfire Exposure: A Retrospective Study Exploring Hospitalization Dynamics Following the 2016 Wave of Fires in Israel

Background: Climate-related events, including wildfires, which adversely affect human health, are gaining the growing attention of public-health officials and researchers. Israel has experienced several disastrous fires, including the wave of fires in November 2016 that led to the evacuation of 75,000 people. The fires lasted six days (22–27 November) with no loss of life or significant immediate health impacts. The objective of this study is to explore the long-term hospitalization dynamics in a population exposed to this large-scale fire, including the effects of underlying morbidity and socio-economic status (SES). Methods: This is a retrospective crossover study, conducted in 2020, analyzing the electronic medical records of residents from areas exposed to a wildfire in northern Israel. The study spans from one year before exposure to two years after it (22 November 2015–27 November 2018). The hospitalization days during the study period were analyzed using the Poisson regression model. The rate of hospitalization days along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were plotted. Results: The study included 106,595 participants. The median age was 37 (IQR = 17–56), with a mean socio-economic ranking of 6.47 out of 10 (SD = 2.01). Analysis revealed that people with underlying morbidity were at greater risk of experiencing long-term effects following fires, which was manifested in higher hospitalization rates that remained elevated for two years post-exposure. This was also evident among individuals of low socio-economic status without these background illnesses. Conclusions: Healthcare services should prepare for increased hospitalization rates during the two years following wildfires for populations with underlying morbidity and those of low socio-economic status. Implementing preventive-medicine approaches may increase the resiliency of communities in the face of extreme climate-related events and prevent future health burdens. Additional research should focus on the specific mechanisms underpinning the long-term effects of wildfire exposure.

Uncertainty in Health Impact Assessments of Smoke From a Wildfire Event

Wildfires cause elevated air pollution that can be detrimental to human health. However, health impact assessments associated with emissions from wildfire events are subject to uncertainty arising from different sources. Here, we quantify and compare major uncertainties in mortality and morbidity outcomes of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution estimated for a series of wildfires in the Southeastern U.S. We present an approach to compare uncertainty in estimated health impacts specifically due to two driving factors, wildfire-related smoke PM2.5 fields and variability in concentration-response parameters from epidemiologic studies of ambient and smoke PM2.5. This analysis, focused on the 2016 Southeastern wildfires, suggests that emissions from these fires had public health consequences in North Carolina. Using several methods based on publicly available monitor data and atmospheric models to represent wildfire-attributable PM2.5, we estimate impacts on several health outcomes and quantify associated uncertainty. Multiple concentration-response parameters derived from studies of ambient and wildfire-specific PM2.5 are used to assess health-related uncertainty. Results show large variability and uncertainty in wildfire impact estimates, with comparable uncertainties due to the smoke pollution fields and health response parameters for some outcomes, but substantially larger health-related uncertainty for several outcomes. Consideration of these uncertainties can support efforts to improve estimates of wildfire impacts and inform fire-related decision-making.

Human Mobility to Parks Under the COVID-19 Pandemic and Wildfire Seasons in the Western and Central United States

In 2020, people's health suffered a great crisis under the dual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the extensive, severe wildfires in the western and central United States. Parks, including city, national, and cultural parks, offer a unique opportunity for people to maintain their recreation behaviors following the social distancing protocols during the pandemic. However, massive forest wildfires in western and central US, producing harmful toxic gases and smoke, pose significant threats to human health and affect their recreation behaviors and mobility to parks. In this study, we employed the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) Models to investigate how COVID-19 and wildfires jointly shaped human mobility to parks, regarding the number of visits per capita, dwell time, and travel distance to parks, during June - September 2020. We detected strong correlations between visitations and COVID-19 incidence in southern Montana, western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah before August. However, the pattern was weakened over time, indicating the decreasing trend of the degree of concern regarding the pandemic. Moreover, more park visits and lower dwell time were found in parks further away from wildfires and less air pollution in Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, and New Mexico, during the wildfire season, suggesting the potential avoidance of wildfires when visiting parks. This study provides important insights on people's responses in recreation and social behaviors when facing multiple severe crises that impact their health and wellbeing, which could support the preparation and mitigation of the health impacts from future pandemics and natural hazards.

Short-term health effects from outdoor exposure to biomass burning emissions: A review

Biomass burning (BB) including forest, bush, prescribed fires, agricultural fires, residential wood combustion, and power generation has long been known to affect climate, air quality and human health. With this work we supply a systematic review on the health effects of BB emissions in the framework of the WHO activities on air pollution. We performed a literature search of online databases (PubMed, ISI, and Scopus) from year 1980 up to 2020. A total of 81 papers were considered as relevant for mortality and morbidity effects. High risk of bias was related with poor estimation of BB exposure and lack of adjustment for important confounders. PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations originating from BB were associated with all-cause mortality: the meta-analytical estimate was equal to 1.31% (95% CI 0.71, 1.71) and 1.92% (95% CI -1.19, 5.03) increased mortality per each 10 μg m^-3 increase of PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. Regarding cardiovascular mortality 8 studies reported quantitative estimates. For smoky days and for each 10 μg m^-3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations, the risk of cardiovascular mortality increased by 4.45% (95% CI 0.96, 7.95) and by 3.30% (95% CI -1.97, 8.57), respectively. Fourteen studies evaluated whether respiratory morbidity was adversely related to PM2.5 (9 studies) or PM10 (5 studies) originating from BB. All found positive associations. The pooled effect estimates were 4.10% (95% CI 2.86, 5.34) and 4.83% (95% CI 0.06, 9.60) increased risk of total respiratory admissions/emergency visits, per 10 μg m^-3 increases in PM2.5 and PM10, respectively. Regarding cardiovascular morbidity, sixteen studies evaluated whether this was adversely related to PM2.5 (10 studies) or PM10 (6 studies) originating from BB. They found both positive and negative results, with summary estimates equal to 3.68% (95% CI -1.73, 9.09) and 0.93% (95% CI -0.18, 2.05) increased risk of total cardiovascular admissions/emergency visits, per 10 μg m^-3 increases in PM2.5 and PM10, respectively. To conclude, a significant number of studies indicate that BB exposure is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and respiratory morbidity.

A multi-analysis approach for estimating regional health impacts from the 2017 Northern California wildfires

Smoke impacts from large wildfires are mounting, and the projection is for more such events in the future as the one experienced October 2017 in Northern California, and subsequently in 2018 and 2020. Further, the evidence is growing about the health impacts from these events which are also difficult to simulate. Therefore, we simulated air quality conditions using a suite of remotely-sensed data, surface observational data, chemical transport modeling with WRF-CMAQ, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods to arrive at datasets useful to air quality and health impact analyses. To demonstrate these analyses, we estimated the health impacts from smoke impacts during wildfires in October 8-20, 2017, in Northern California, when over 7 million people were exposed to Unhealthy to Very Unhealthy air quality conditions. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve overall results, however it was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. To improve these results, we applied one data fusion and three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across all cases, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. Overall, WRF-CMAQ simulations were biased high and the geostatistical methods were biased low. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in an exposure-response function. Estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% CI: 0, 196) with 47% attributable to wildland fire smoke.Implications: Large wildfires in the United States and in particular California are becoming increasingly common. Associated with these large wildfires are air quality and health impact to millions of people from the smoke. We simulated air quality conditions using a suite of remotely-sensed data, surface observational data, chemical transport modeling, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods to arrive at datasets useful to air quality and health impact analyses from the October 2017 Northern California wildfires. Temporary monitors deployed for the wildfires provided an important model evaluation dataset. Total estimated regional mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to the wildland fire smoke. This illustrates the profound effect that even a 12-day exposure to wildland fire smoke can have on human health.

Health Impact Assessment of the 2020 Washington State Wildfire Smoke Episode: Excess Health Burden Attributable to Increased PM2.5 Exposures and Potential Exposure Reductions

Major wildfires starting in the summer of 2020 along the west coast of the United States made PM2.5 concentrations in this region rank among the highest in the world. Washington was impacted both by active wildfires in the state and aged wood smoke transported from fires in Oregon and California. This study aims to estimate the magnitude and disproportionate spatial impacts of increased PM2.5 concentrations attributable to these wildfires on population health. Daily PM2.5 concentrations for each county before and during the 2020 Washington wildfire episode (September 7-19) were obtained from regulatory air monitors. Utilizing previously established concentration-response function (CRF) of PM2.5 (CRF of total PM2.5) and odds ratio (OR) of wildfire smoke days (OR of wildfire smoke days) for mortality, we estimated excess mortality attributable to the increased PM2.5 concentrations in Washington. On average, daily PM2.5 concentrations increased 97.1 μg/m3 during the wildfire smoke episode. With CRF of total PM2.5, the 13-day exposure to wildfire smoke was estimated to lead to 92.2 (95% CI: 0.0, 178.7) more all-cause mortality cases; with OR of wildfire smoke days, 38.4 (95% CI: 0.0, 93.3) increased all-cause mortality cases and 15.1 (95% CI: 0.0, 27.9) increased respiratory mortality cases were attributable to the wildfire smoke episode. The potential impact of avoiding elevated PM2.5 exposures during wildfire events significantly reduced the mortality burden. Because wildfire smoke episodes are likely to impact the Pacific Northwest in future years, continued preparedness and mitigations to reduce exposures to wildfire smoke are necessary to avoid excess health burden.

Wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from other sources: observational evidence from Southern California

Wildfires are becoming more frequent and destructive in a changing climate. Fine particulate matter, PM_2.5, in wildfire smoke adversely impacts human health. Recent toxicological studies suggest that wildfire particulate matter may be more toxic than equal doses of ambient PM_2.5. Air quality regulations however assume that the toxicity of PM_2.5 does not vary across different sources of emission. Assessing whether PM_2.5 from wildfires is more or less harmful than PM_2.5 from other sources is a pressing public health concern. Here, we isolate the wildfire-specific PM_2.5 using a series of statistical approaches and exposure definitions. We found increases in respiratory hospitalizations ranging from 1.3 to up to 10% with a 10 μg m^-3 increase in wildfire-specific PM_2.5, compared to 0.67 to 1.3% associated with non-wildfire PM_2.5. Our conclusions point to the need for air quality policies to consider the variability in PM_2.5 impacts on human health according to the sources of emission.

Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research

Anthropogenic climate change is adversely impacting people and contributing to suffering and increased costs from climate-related diseases and injuries. In responding to this urgent and growing public health crisis, mitigation strategies are in place to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) while adaptation strategies exist to reduce and/or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change by increasing systems' resilience to future impacts. While these strategies have numerous positive benefits on climate change itself, they also often have other positive externalities or health co-benefits. This knowledge can be harnessed to promote and improve global public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Previous conceptual models in mitigation and adaptation studies such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considered health in the thinking, but health outcomes were not their primary intention. Additionally, existing guidance documents such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidance for Climate Resilient and Environmentally Sustainable Health Care Facilities is designed primarily for public health professionals or healthcare managers in hospital settings with a primary focus on resilience. However, a detailed cross sectoral and multidisciplinary conceptual framework, which links mitigation and adaptation strategies with health outcomes as a primary end point, has not yet been developed to guide research in this area. In this paper, we briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research and preparedness across sectors and disciplines and outline key stakeholders recommendations in promoting climate resilient systems and advancing health equity.

Population exposure to particulate-matter and related mortality due to the Portuguese wildfires in October 2017 driven by storm Ophelia

In October 2017, hundreds of wildfires ravaged the forests of the north and centre of Portugal. The fires were fanned by strong winds as tropical storm Ophelia swept the Iberian coast, dragging up smoke (together with Saharan dust from north-western Africa) into higher western European latitudes. Here we analyse the long-range transport of particulate matter (PM₁₀) and study associations between PM₁₀ and short-term mortality in the Portuguese population exposed to PM₁₀ due to the October 2017 wildfires, the worst fire sequence in the country over the last decades. We analysed space- and ground-level observations to track the smoke plume and dust trajectory over Portugal and Europe, and to access PM₁₀ concentrations during the wildfires. The effects of PM₁₀ on mortality were evaluated using satellite data for exposure and Poisson regression models. The smoke plume covered most western European countries (including Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands), and reached the United Kingdom, where the population was exposed in average to an additional PM₁₀ level of 11.7 µg/m³ during seven smoky days (three with dust) in relation to the reference days (days without smoke or dust), revealing the impact of the wildfires on distant populations. In Portugal, the population was exposed in average to additional PM₁₀ levels that varied from 16.2 to 120.6 µg/m³ in smoky days with dust and from 6.1 to 20.9 µg/m³ in dust-free smoky days. Results suggest that PM₁₀ had a significant effect on the same day natural and cardiorespiratory mortalities during the month of October 2017. For every additional 10 µg/m³ of PM₁₀, there was a 0.89% (95% confidence interval, CI, 0-1.77%) increase in the number of natural deaths and a 2.34% (95% CI, 0.99-3.66%) increase in the number of cardiorespiratory-related deaths. With rising temperatures and a higher frequency of storms due to climate change, PM from Iberian wildfires together with NW African dust will tend to be more often transported into Northern European countries, which may carry health threats to areas far from the ignition sites.

Air pollution from wildfires and human health vulnerability in Alaskan communities under climate change

Alaskan wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, but very little is known regarding exposure to wildfire smoke, a risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. We estimated long-term, present-day and future exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across Alaska for the general population and subpopulations to assess vulnerability using observed data for the present day (1997-2010), modelled estimates for the present day (1997-2001), and modelled estimates for the future (2047-2051). First, we assessed wildfire-PM2.5 exposure by estimating monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels across 1997-2010 for 158 Alaskan census tracts, using atmospheric transport modelling based on observed area-burned data. Second, we estimated changes in future (2047-2051) wildfire-PM2.5 exposure compared to the present-day (1997-2001) by estimating the monthly-average wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels for 29 boroughs/census areas (county-equivalent areas), under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario from an ensemble of 13 climate models. Subpopulation risks for present and future exposure levels were estimated by summing area-weighted exposure levels utilizing the 2000 Census and State of Alaska's population projections. We assessed vulnerability by several subpopulation characteristics (e.g. race/ethnicity, urbanicity). Wildfire-PM2.5 exposure levels during 1997-2010 were highest in interior Alaska during July. Among subpopulations, average summer (June-August) exposure levels for urban dwellers and African-American/Blacks were highest at 9.1 μg m-3 and 10 μg m-3, respectively. Estimated wildfire-PM2.5 varied by Native American tribe, ranging from average summer levels of 2.4 μg m-3 to 13 μg m-3 for Tlingit-Haida and Alaskan Athabascan tribes, respectively. Estimates indicate that by the mid-21st century, under climate change, almost all of Alaska could be exposed to increases of 100% or more in levels of wildfire-specific PM2.5 levels. Exposure to wildfire-PM2.5 likely presents a substantial public health burden in the present day for Alaska communities, with different impacts by subpopulation. Under climate change, wildfire smoke could pose an even greater public health risks for most Alaskans.

Mortality associated with wildfire smoke exposure in Washington state, 2006-2017: a case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Wildfire events are increasing in prevalence in the western United States. Research has found mixed results on the degree to which exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with an increased risk of mortality.

METHODS

We tested for an association between exposure to wildfire smoke and non-traumatic mortality in Washington State, USA. We characterized wildfire smoke days as binary for grid cells based on daily average PM2.5 concentrations, from June 1 through September 30, 2006-2017. Wildfire smoke days were defined as all days with assigned monitor concentration above a PM2.5 value of 20.4 μg/m3, with an additional set of criteria applied to days between 9 and 20.4 μg/m3. We employed a case-crossover study design using conditional logistic regression and time-stratified referent sampling, controlling for humidex.

RESULTS

The odds of all-ages non-traumatic mortality with same-day exposure was 1.0% (95% CI: - 1.0 - 4.0%) greater on wildfire smoke days compared to non-wildfire smoke days, and the previous day's exposure was associated with a 2.0% (95% CI: 0.0-5.0%) increase. When stratified by cause of mortality, odds of same-day respiratory mortality increased by 9.0% (95% CI: 0.0-18.0%), while the odds of same-day COPD mortality increased by 14.0% (95% CI: 2.0-26.0%). In subgroup analyses, we observed a 35.0% (95% CI: 9.0-67.0%) increase in the odds of same-day respiratory mortality for adults ages 45-64.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests increased odds of mortality in the first few days following wildfire smoke exposure. It is the first to examine this relationship in Washington State and will help inform local and state risk communication efforts and decision-making during future wildfire smoke events.

Long-term field evaluation of the Plantower PMS low-cost particulate matter sensors

The low-cost and compact size of light-scattering-based particulate matter (PM) sensors provide an opportunity for improved spatiotemporally resolved PM measurements. However, these inexpensive sensors have limitations and need to be characterized under realistic conditions. This study evaluated two Plantower PMS (particulate matter sensor) 1003s and two PMS 5003s outdoors in Salt Lake City, Utah over 320 days (1/2016-2/2016 and 12/2016-10/2017) through multiple seasons and a variety of elevated PM_2.5 events including wintertime cold-air pools (CAPs), fireworks, and wildfires. The PMS 1003/5003 sensors generally tracked PM_2.5 concentrations compared to co-located reference air monitors (one tapered element oscillating microbalance, TEOM, and one gravimetric federal reference method, FRM). The different PMS sensor models and sets of the same sensor model exhibited some intra-sensor variability. During winter 2017, the two PMS 1003s consistently overestimated PM_2.5 by a factor of 1.89 (TEOM PM_2.5<40 μg/m³). However, compared to the TEOM, one PMS 5003 overestimated PM_2.5 concentrations by a factor of 1.47 while the other roughly agreed with the TEOM. The PMS sensor response also differed by season. In two consecutive winters, the PMS PM_2.5 measurements correlated with the hourly TEOM measurements (R² > 0.87) and 24-h FRM measurements (R² > 0.88) while in spring (March-June) and wildfire season (June-October) 2017, the correlations were poorer (R² of 0.18-0.32 and 0.48-0.72, respectively). The PMS 1003s maintained high intra-sensor agreement after one year of deployment during the winter seasons, however, one PMS 1003 sensor exhibited a significant drift beginning in March 2017 and continued to deteriorate through the end of the study. Overall, this study demonstrated good correlations between the PMS sensors and reference monitors in the winter season, seasonal differences in sensor performance, some intra-sensor variability, and drift in one sensor. These types of factors should be considered when using measurements from a network of low-cost PM sensors.

Application of an Original Wildfire Smoke Health Cost Benefits Transfer Protocol to the Western US, 2005-2015

Recent growth in the frequency and severity of US wildfires has led to more wildfire smoke and increased public exposure to harmful air pollutants. Populations exposed to wildfire smoke experience a variety of negative health impacts, imposing economic costs on society. However, few estimates of smoke health costs exist and none for the entire Western US, in particular, which experiences some of the largest and most intense wildfires in the US. The lack of cost estimates is troublesome because smoke health impacts are an important consideration of the overall costs of wildfire. To address this gap, this study provides the first time series estimates of PM2.5 smoke costs across mortality and several morbidity measures for the Western US over 2005-2015. This time period includes smoke from several megafires and includes years of record-breaking acres burned. Smoke costs are estimated using a benefits transfer protocol developed for contexts when original health data are not available. The novelty of our protocol is that it synthesizes the literature on choices faced by researchers when conducting a smoke cost benefit transfer. On average, wildfire smoke in the Western US creates $165 million in annual morbidity and mortality health costs.

Using National Ambient Air Quality Standards for fine particulate matter to assess regional wildland fire smoke and air quality management

Wildland fire is an important ecological process in the California Sierra Nevada. Personal accounts from pre-20th century describe a much smokier environment than present day. The policy of suppression beginning in the early 20th century and climate change are contributing to increased megafires. We use a single particulate monitoring site at the wildland urban interface to explore impacts from prescribed, managed, and full suppression wildland fires from 2006 to 2015 producing a contextual assessment of smoke impacts over time at the landscape level. Prescribed fire had little effect on local fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) air quality with readings typical of similar non-fire times; hourly and daily good to moderate Air Quality Index (AQI) for PM_2.5, maximum hourly concentrations 21-103 μg m^-3, and mean concentrations between 7.7 and 13.2 μg m^-3. Hourly and daily AQI was typically good or moderate during managed fires with 3 h and one day reaching unhealthy while the site remained below National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), with maximum hourly concentrations 27-244 μg m^-3, and mean concentrations 6.7-11.7 μg m^-3. The large high intensity fire in this area created the highest short term impacts (AQI unhealthy for 4 h and very unhealthy for 1 h), 11 unhealthy for sensitive days, and produced the only annual value (43.9 μg m^-3) over the NAAQS 98th percentile for PM_2.5 (35 μg m^-3). Pinehurst remained below the federal standards for PM_2.5 when wildland fire in the local area was managed to 7800 ha (8-22% of the historic burn area). Considering air quality impacts from smoke using the NAAQS at a landscape level over time can give land and air managers a metric for broader evaluation of smoke impacts particularly when assessing ecologically beneficial fire. Allowing managers to control the amount and timing of individual wildland fire emissions can help lessen large smoke impacts to public health from a megafire.

Wildfire smoke exposure and human health: Significant gaps in research for a growing public health issue

Understanding the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on human health represents a unique interdisciplinary challenge to the scientific community. Population health studies indicate that wildfire smoke is a risk to human health and increases the healthcare burden of smoke-impacted areas. However, wildfire smoke composition is complex and dynamic, making characterization and modeling difficult. Furthermore, current efforts to study the effect of wildfire smoke are limited by availability of air quality measures and inconsistent air quality reporting among researchers. To help address these issues, we conducted a substantive review of wildfire smoke effects on population health, wildfire smoke exposure in occupational health, and experimental wood smoke exposure. Our goal was to evaluate the current literature on wildfire smoke and highlight important gaps in research. In particular we emphasize long-term health effects of wildfire smoke, recovery following wildfire smoke exposure, and health consequences of exposure in children.

Biomass burning in Indo-China peninsula and its impacts on regional air quality and global climate change-a review

Although, many biomass burning (BB) emissions products (particulate matter and trace gases) are believed to be trans-boundary pollutants that originates from India and China (the two most populous countries in Asia), the information about BB emission and related contents is limited for Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region. This motivated us to review this region pertaining to BB emission. The main objective of the review is to document the current status of BB emission in ICP region. In order to highlight the impact of BB on regional air quality and global climate change, the role of BB emission in ICP region is also discussed. Based on the available literature and modeling simulations studies, it is evidenced that ICP is one of the hotspot regional source for aerosols in terms of BB emissions. In addition, regional emissions through BB have significant implications for regional air quality especially in the neighboring countries such as China, Taiwan and India. Our assessment highlight that there is still a general lack of reliable data and research studies addressing BB related issues in context of environmental and human health. There is therefore a critical need to improve the current knowledge base, which should build upon the research experience and further research into these issues is considered vital to help inform future policies/control strategies.

Mortality due to Vegetation Fire-Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe-Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008

BACKGROUND

Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe.

METHODS

PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk.

RESULTS

In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe-assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30-37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194.

Review of the health effects of wildland fire smoke on wildland firefighters and the public

Each year, the general public and wildland firefighters in the US are exposed to smoke from wildland fires. As part of an effort to characterize health risks of breathing this smoke, a review of the literature was conducted using five major databases, including PubMed and MEDLINE Web of Knowledge, to identify smoke components that present the highest hazard potential, the mechanisms of toxicity, review epidemiological studies for health effects and identify the current gap in knowledge on the health impacts of wildland fire smoke exposure. Respiratory events measured in time series studies as incidences of disease-caused mortality, hospital admissions, emergency room visits and symptoms in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients are the health effects that are most commonly associated with community level exposure to wildland fire smoke. A few recent studies have also determined associations between acute wildland fire smoke exposure and cardiovascular health end-points. These cardiopulmonary effects were mostly observed in association with ambient air concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, research on the health effects of this mixture is currently limited. The health effects of acute exposures beyond susceptible populations and the effects of chronic exposures experienced by the wildland firefighter are largely unknown. Longitudinal studies of wildland firefighters during and/or after the firefighting career could help elucidate some of the unknown health impacts of cumulative exposure to wildland fire smoke, establish occupational exposure limits and help determine the types of exposure controls that may be applicable to the occupation.

Health outcomes associated with smoke exposure in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during the 2011 Wallow fire

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the association between PM2.5 levels and emergency department (ED) visits for selected health outcomes in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during the Wallow fire of 2011.

DESIGN

Measurements of 24-hour average concentrations of PM2.5 obtained from the City of Albuquerque were used to calculate wildfire smoke exposure in Albuquerque. Daily ED visits were collected by the New Mexico Department of Health from individual nonfederal licensed facilities in the Albuquerque area. Poisson regression was used to assess the relationship between ED visits for selected respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and varying levels of PM2.5 exposure.

SETTING

Albuquerque, New Mexico.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients visiting an ED for select conditions before, during, and after the wildfire.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Relative increase in ED visits for selected conditions during the wildfire period.

RESULTS

Analysis of PM2.5 exposure data and ED visits in Albuquerque before and during the Wallow fire indicated that compared with the period prior to the fire, there was an increased risk of ED visits for some respiratory and cardiovascular conditions during heavy smoke conditions, and risk varied by age and sex. The population of 65+ years was especially at risk for increased ED visits. There was a significantly increased risk of ED visits among the 65+ population for asthma (RR [relative rate] = 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-2.93) and for diseases of the veins, lymphatic and circulatory system (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.00-2.43). For the age group of 20 to 64 years, there was a statistically significant increase in ED visits for diseases of pulmonary circulation (RR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.42-4.9) and for cerebrovascular disease (RR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.03-2.77).

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of PM2.5 exposure due to the Wallow fire were associated with increased ED visits for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions in Albuquerque. More effective and targeted preventive measures are necessary to reduce morbidity rates associated with wildfire smoke exposure among vulnerable populations.

Effects of long-range transported air pollution from vegetation fires on daily mortality and hospital admissions in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland

INTRODUCTION

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions from vegetation fires can be transported over long distances and may cause significant air pollution episodes far from the fires. However, epidemiological evidence on health effects of vegetation-fire originated air pollution is limited, particularly for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

We examined association between short-term exposure to long-range transported PM_2.5 from vegetation fires and daily mortality due to non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory causes and daily hospital admissions due to cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland.

METHODS

Days significantly affected by smoke from vegetation fires between 2001 and 2010 were identified using air quality measurements at an urban background and a regional background monitoring station, and modelled data on surface concentrations of vegetation-fire smoke. Associations between daily PM_2.5 concentration and health outcomes on i) smoke-affected days and ii) all other days (i.e. non-smoke days) were analysed using Poisson time series regression. All statistical models were adjusted for daily temperature and relative humidity, influenza, pollen, and public holidays.

RESULTS

On smoke-affected days, 10µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with a borderline statistically significant increase in cardiovascular mortality among total population at a lag of three days (12.4%, 95% CI -0.2% to 26.5%), and among the elderly (≥65 years) following same-day exposure (13.8%, 95% CI -0.6% to 30.4%) and at a lag of three days (11.8%, 95% CI -2.2% to 27.7%). Smoke day PM_2.5 was not associated with non-accidental mortality or hospital admissions due to cardiovascular causes. However, there was an indication of a positive association with hospital admissions due to respiratory causes among the elderly, and admissions due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma among the total population. In contrast, on non-smoke days PM_2.5 was generally not associated with the health outcomes, apart from suggestive small positive effects on non-accidental mortality at a lag of one day among the elderly and hospital admissions due to all respiratory causes following same-day exposure among the total population.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research provides suggestive evidence for an association of exposure to long-range transported PM_2.5 from vegetation fires with increased cardiovascular mortality, and to a lesser extent with increased hospital admissions due to respiratory causes. Hence, vegetation-fire originated air pollution may have adverse effects on public health over a distance of hundreds to thousands of kilometres from the fires.

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change

Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

Evaluation of a spatially resolved forest fire smoke model for population-based epidemiologic exposure assessment

Exposure to forest fire smoke (FFS) is associated with multiple adverse health effects, mostly respiratory. Findings for cardiovascular effects have been inconsistent, possibly related to the limitations of conventional methods to assess FFS exposure. In previous work, we developed an empirical model to estimate smoke-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for all populated areas in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Here, we evaluate the utility of our model by comparing epidemiologic associations between modeled and measured PM2.5. For each local health area (LHA), we used Poisson regression to estimate the effects of PM2.5 estimates and measurements on counts of medication dispensations and outpatient physician visits. We then used meta-regression to estimate the overall effects. A 10 μg/m(3) increase in modeled PM2.5 was associated with increased sabutamol dispensations (RR=1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06), and physician visits for asthma (1.06, 1.04-1.08), COPD (1.02, 1.00-1.03), lower respiratory infections (1.03, 1.00-1.05), and otitis media (1.05, 1.03-1.07), all comparable to measured PM2.5. Effects on cardiovascular outcomes were only significant using model estimates in all LHAs during extreme fire days. This suggests that the exposure model is a promising tool for increasing the power of epidemiologic studies to detect the health effects of FFS via improved spatial coverage and resolution.

Impact of smoke from prescribed burning: Is it a public health concern?

Given the increase in wildfire intensity and frequency worldwide, prescribed burning is becoming a more common and widespread practice. Prescribed burning is a fire management tool used to reduce fuel loads for wildfire suppression purposes and occurs on an annual basis in many parts of the world. Smoke from prescribed burning can have a substantial impact on air quality and the environment. Prescribed burning is a significant source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 aerodynamic diameter<2.5µm) and these particulates are found to be consistently elevated during smoke events. Due to their fine nature PM2.5 are particularly harmful to human health. Here we discuss the impact of prescribed burning on air quality particularly focussing on PM2.5. We have summarised available case studies from Australia including a recent study we conducted in regional Victoria, Australia during the prescribed burning season in 2013. The studies reported very high short-term (hourly) concentrations of PM2.5 during prescribed burning. Given the increase in PM2.5 concentrations during smoke events, there is a need to understand the influence of prescribed burning smoke exposure on human health. This is important especially since adverse health impacts have been observed during wildfire events when PM2.5 concentrations were similar to those observed during prescribed burning events. Robust research is required to quantify and determine health impacts from prescribed burning smoke exposure and derive evidence based interventions for managing the risk.

IMPLICATIONS

Given the increase in PM2.5 concentrations during PB smoke events and its impact on the local air quality, the need to understand the influence of PB smoke exposure on human health is important. This knowledge will be important to inform policy and practice of the integrated, consistent, and adaptive approach to the appropriate planning and implementation of public health strategies during PB events. This will also have important implications for land management and public health organizations in developing evidence based objectives to minimize the risk of PB smoke exposure.

A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke

BACKGROUND

Climate change is likely to increase the threat of wildfires, and little is known about how wildfires affect health in exposed communities. A better understanding of the impacts of the resulting air pollution has important public health implications for the present day and the future.

METHOD

We performed a systematic search to identify peer-reviewed scientific studies published since 1986 regarding impacts of wildfire smoke on health in exposed communities. We reviewed and synthesized the state of science of this issue including methods to estimate exposure, and identified limitations in current research.

RESULTS

We identified 61 epidemiological studies linking wildfire and human health in communities. The U.S. and Australia were the most frequently studied countries (18 studies on the U.S., 15 on Australia). Geographic scales ranged from a single small city (population about 55,000) to the entire globe. Most studies focused on areas close to fire events. Exposure was most commonly assessed with stationary air pollutant monitors (35 of 61 studies). Other methods included using satellite remote sensing and measurements from air samples collected during fires. Most studies compared risk of health outcomes between 1) periods with no fire events and periods during or after fire events, or 2) regions affected by wildfire smoke and unaffected regions. Daily pollution levels during or after wildfire in most studies exceeded U.S. EPA regulations. Levels of PM10, the most frequently studied pollutant, were 1.2 to 10 times higher due to wildfire smoke compared to non-fire periods and/or locations. Respiratory disease was the most frequently studied health condition, and had the most consistent results. Over 90% of these 45 studies reported that wildfire smoke was significantly associated with risk of respiratory morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Exposure measurement is a key challenge in current literature on wildfire and human health. A limitation is the difficulty of estimating pollution specific to wildfires. New methods are needed to separate air pollution levels of wildfires from those from ambient sources, such as transportation. The majority of studies found that wildfire smoke was associated with increased risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Children, the elderly and those with underlying chronic diseases appear to be susceptible. More studies on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity are needed. Further exploration with new methods could help ascertain the public health impacts of wildfires under climate change and guide mitigation policies.

Non-accidental health impacts of wildfire smoke

Wildfires take a heavy toll on human health worldwide. Climate change may increase the risk of wildfire frequency. Therefore, in view of adapted preventive actions, there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. We conducted a systematic review of non-accidental health impacts of wildfire and incorporated lessons learned from recent experiences. Based on the literature, various studies have established the relationship between one of the major components of wildfire, particulate matter (particles with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5)) and cardiorespiratory symptoms in terms of Emergency Rooms visits and hospital admissions. Associations between wildfire emissions and various subclinical effects have also been established. However, few relationships between wildfire emissions and mortality have been observed. Certain segments of the population may be particularly vulnerable to smoke-related health risks. Among them, people with pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions, the elderly, smokers and, for professional reasons, firefighters. Potential action mechanisms have been highlighted. Overall, more research is needed to better understand health impact of wildfire exposure.

Wildland fire management and air quality in the southern Sierra Nevada: using the Lion Fire as a case study with a multi-year perspective on PM(2.5) impacts and fire policy

Management of fire is an important and controversial policy issue. Active fire suppression has led to a backlog of fuels, limited the ecological benefits of fire, and reduced short-term smoke impacts likely delaying these emissions to future generations over a larger spatial extent. Smoke impacts can be expected to increase as fire size and intensity increase and the fuel backlog is consumed; whether through reintroduction of fire under desirable conditions or through stand replacing fire. Land Management Agencies would like to increase the use of naturally ignited fires to burn during favorable conditions as a way to reduce catastrophic fires. This study provides information about the levels of air quality impacts expected from these types of fires and discusses some of the policy controversies of managed fire that propagate inconsistencies between agencies and enter the public discourse. The Lion Fire, a primarily low intensity 8,370 ha fire that was extensively monitored for Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5), is used to quantify impacts to air quality. PM2.5 monitoring sites are used to assess exposure, public health impacts, and subsequently quantify annual air quality during a year with a fire that is within the historic normal fire size and intensity for this area. Ground level PM2.5 impacts were found to be localized with 99% of the hourly Air Quality Index readings in the moderate or good category for the sites impacted by the fire. PM2.5 concentrations at sites nearest the fire were below annual federal air quality standards for PM2.5 with annual 98th percentile at the most impacted sites (Johnsondale, Kernville, and Camp Nelson) of 35.0, 34.0, and 28.0 μg m(-3) respectively. Smoke impacts to PM2.5 concentrations were not found to reach the populated Central Valley. The findings suggest that this type of fire can be implemented with minimal public health impacts thus allowing an opportunity for air and fire managers to alter policy to allow additional burning in an area with severe anthropogenic air pollution and where frequent widespread fire is both beneficial and inevitable. The more extensive air quality impacts documented with large high intensity fire may be averted by embracing the use of fire to prevent unwanted high intensity burns. A widespread increase in the use of fire for ecological benefit may provide the resiliency needed in Sierra Nevada forests as well as be the most beneficial to public health through the reduction of single dose exposure to smoke and limiting impacts spatially.

Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-21st century

We estimate area burned in southern California at mid-century (2046-2065) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. We develop both regressions and a parameterization to predict area burned in three ecoregions, and apply present-day (1981-2000) and future meteorology from the suite of general circulation models (GCMs) to these fire prediction tools. The regressions account for the impacts of both current and antecedent meteorological factors on wildfire activity and explain 40-46% of the variance in area burned during 1980-2009. The parameterization yields area burned as a function of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, and includes the impact of Santa Ana wind and other geographical factors on wildfires. It explains 38% of the variance in area burned over southern California as a whole, and 64% of the variance in southwestern California. The parameterization also captures the seasonality of wildfires in three ecoregions of southern California. Using the regressions, we find that area burned likely doubles in Southwestern California by midcentury, and increases by 35% in the Sierra Nevada and 10% in central western California. The parameterization suggests a likely increase of 40% in area burned in southwestern California and 50% in the Sierra Nevada by midcentury. It also predicts a longer fire season in southwestern California due to warmer and drier conditions on Santa Ana days in November. Our method provides robust estimates of area burned at midcentury, a key metric which can be used to calculate the fire-related effects on air quality, human health, and the associated costs.

Mortality related to air pollution with the moscow heat wave and wildfire of 2010

BACKGROUND

Prolonged high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires often occur together, and the two may interact in their effects on mortality. However, there are few data on such possible interactions.

METHODS

We analyzed day-to-day variations in the number of deaths in Moscow, Russia, in relation to air pollution levels and temperature during the disastrous heat wave and wildfire of 2010. Corresponding data for the period 2006-2009 were used for comparison. Daily average levels of PM10 and ozone were obtained from several continuous measurement stations. The daily number of nonaccidental deaths from specific causes was extracted from official records. Analyses of interactions considered the main effect of temperature as well as the added effect of prolonged high temperatures and the interaction with PM10.

RESULTS

The major heat wave lasted for 44 days, with 24-hour average temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C and PM10 levels exceeding 300 μg/m on several days. There were close to 11,000 excess deaths from nonaccidental causes during this period, mainly among those older than 65 years. Increased risks also occurred in younger age groups. The most pronounced effects were for deaths from cardiovascular, respiratory, genitourinary, and nervous system diseases. Continuously increasing risks following prolonged high temperatures were apparent during the first 2 weeks of the heat wave. Interactions between high temperatures and air pollution from wildfires in excess of an additive effect contributed to more than 2000 deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Interactions between high temperatures and wildfire air pollution should be considered in risk assessments regarding health consequences of climate change.

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

Air pollution from bushfires and their association with hospital admissions in Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, Australia 1994-2007

OBJECTIVE

We examined the association between validated bushfire smoke pollution events and hospital admissions in three eastern Australian cities from 1994 to 2007.

METHODS

Smoke events were defined as days on which bushfire smoke caused the 24-hour citywide average concentration of airborne particles to exceed the 99(th) percentile of the daily distribution for the study period. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to assess the association between smoke events and hospital admissions. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions on event days compared with non-event days. Models were adjusted for daily meteorology, influenza epidemics and holidays.

RESULTS

Smoke events occurred on 58 days in Sydney (population: 3,862,000), 33 days in Wollongong (population: 406,000) and 50 days in Newcastle (population: 278,000). In Sydney, events were associated with a 6% (OR=1.06, 95%CI=1.02-1.09) same day increase in respiratory hospital admissions. Same day chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions increased 13% (OR=1.13, 95%CI=1.05-1.22) and asthma admissions by 12% (OR=1.12, 95%CI=1.05-1.19). Events were also associated with increased admissions for respiratory conditions in Newcastle and Wollongong.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoke events were associated with increased hospital admissions for respiratory but not cardiovascular conditions. Large populations are needed to assess the impacts of brief exposures. Implications : Public health impacts from bushfire pollution events are likely to increase in association with a warming climate and more frequent severe fire weather.

Short-term associations between fine and coarse particulate matter and hospitalizations in Southern Europe: results from the MED-PARTICLES project

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the short-term effects of fine and coarse particles on morbidity in Europe is scarce and inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the association between daily concentrations of fine and coarse particles with hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions in eight Southern European cities, within the MED-PARTICLES project.

METHODS

City-specific Poisson models were fitted to estimate associations of daily concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ≤ 10 μm (PM10), and their difference (PM2.5-10) with daily counts of emergency hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. We derived pooled estimates from random-effects meta-analysis and evaluated the robustness of results to co-pollutant exposure adjustment and model specification. Pooled concentration-response curves were estimated using a meta-smoothing approach.

RESULTS

We found significant associations between all PM fractions and cardiovascular admissions. Increases of 10 μg/m3 in PM2.5, 6.3 μg/m3 in PM2.5-10, and 14.4 μg/m3 in PM10 (lag 0-1 days) were associated with increases in cardiovascular admissions of 0.51% (95% CI: 0.12, 0.90%), 0.46% (95% CI: 0.10, 0.82%), and 0.53% (95% CI: 0.06, 1.00%), respectively. Stronger associations were estimated for respiratory hospitalizations, ranging from 1.15% (95% CI: 0.21, 2.11%) for PM10 to 1.36% (95% CI: 0.23, 2.49) for PM2.5 (lag 0-5 days).

CONCLUSIONS

PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 were positively associated with cardiovascular and respiratory admissions in eight Mediterranean cities. Information on the short-term effects of different PM fractions on morbidity in Southern Europe will be useful to inform European policies on air quality standards.

Time series analysis of fine particulate matter and asthma reliever dispensations in populations affected by forest fires

BACKGROUND

Several studies have evaluated the association between forest fire smoke and acute exacerbations of respiratory diseases, but few have examined effects on pharmaceutical dispensations. We examine the associations between daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and pharmaceutical dispensations for salbutamol in forest fire-affected and non-fire-affected populations in British Columbia (BC), Canada.

METHODS

We estimated PM2.5 exposure for populations in administrative health areas using measurements from central monitors. Remote sensing data on fires were used to classify the populations as fire-affected or non-fire-affected, and to identify extreme fire days. Daily counts of salbutamol dispensations between 2003 and 2010 were extracted from the BC PharmaNet database. We estimated rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each population during all fire seasons and on extreme fire days, adjusted for temperature, humidity, and temporal trends. Overall effects for fire-affected and non-fire-affected populations were estimated via meta-regression.

RESULTS

Fire season PM2.5 was positively associated with salbutamol dispensations in all fire-affected populations, with a meta-regression RR (95% CI) of 1.06 (1.04-1.07) for a 10 ug/m3 increase. Fire season PM2.5 was not significantly associated with salbutamol dispensations in non-fire-affected populations, with a meta-regression RR of 1.00 (0.98-1.01). On extreme fire days PM2.5 was positively associated with salbutamol dispensations in both population types, with a global meta-regression RR of 1.07 (1.04 - 1.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Salbutamol dispensations were clearly associated with fire-related PM2.5. Significant associations were observed in smaller populations (range: 8,000 to 170,000 persons, median: 26,000) than those reported previously, suggesting that salbutamol dispensations may be a valuable outcome for public health surveillance during fire events.

Risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalisation with exposure to bushfire particulates: new evidence from Darwin, Australia

The risk of hospitalisation from bushfire exposure events in Darwin, Australia, is examined. Several local studies have found evidence for the effects of exposure to bushfire particulates on respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. They have characterised the risk of admission from seasonal exposures to biomass air pollution. A new, unanalysed data set presented an additional chance to examine unique exposure effects, as there are no anthropogenic sources of particulates in the vicinity of the exposure monitor. The incidence of daily counts of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diagnoses was calculated with respect to exposures of particulate matter (PM(10)), course particulate matter, fine particulate matter (FPM) and black carbon composition. A Poisson model was used to calculate unadjusted (crude) measures of effect and then adjusted for known risk factors and confounders. The final model adjusted for the effects of minimum temperature, relative humidity, a smoothed spline for seasonal effects, 'date' for a linear effect over time, day of the week and public and school holidays. A subset analysis adjusted for an influenza epidemic in a particular year. The main findings suggest that respiratory admissions were associated with exposure to PM(10) with a lag of 1 day when adjusted for flu and other confounders (RR = 1.025, 95 % CI 1.000-1.051, p < 0.05). This effect is strongest for exposure to FPM concentrations (RR = 1.091, 95 % CI 1.023-1.163, p < 0.01) when adjusted for flu. Respiratory admissions were also associated with black carbon concentrations recorded the previous day (RR = 1.0004, 95 % CI 1.000-1.0008, p < 0.05), which did not change strength when adjusted for flu. Cardiovascular admissions had the strongest association with exposure to same-day PM and highest RR for exposure to FPM when adjusted for confounders (RR = 1.044, 95 % CI 0.989-1.102). Consistent risks were also found with exposure to black carbon with lags of 0-3 days.

Health impacts of wildfires

Introduction Wildfires are common globally. Although there has been considerable work done on the health effects of wildfires in countries such as the USA where they occur frequently there has been relatively little work to investigate health effects in the United Kingdom. Climate change may increase the risk of increasing wildfire frequency, therefore there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. This study was designed to review current evidence about the health effects of wildfires from the UK standpoint. Methods A comprehensive literature review of international evidence regarding wildfire related health effects was conducted in January 2012. Further information was gathered from authors' focus groups. Results A review of the published evidence shows that human health can be severely affected by wildfires. Certain populations are particularly vulnerable. Wood smoke has high levels of particulate matter and toxins. Respiratory morbidity predominates, but cardiovascular, ophthalmic and psychiatric problems can also result. In addition severe burns resulting from direct contact with the fire require care in special units and carry a risk of multi - organ complications. The wider health implications from spreading air, water and land pollution are of concern. Access to affected areas and communication with populations living within them is crucial in mitigating risk. Conclusion This study has identified factors that may reduce public health risk from wildfires. However more research is needed to evaluate longer term health effects from wildfires. An understanding of such factors is vital to ensure preparedness within health care services for such events.

Birth weight following pregnancy during the 2003 Southern California wildfires

BACKGROUND

In late October 2003, a series of wildfires exposed urban populations in Southern California to elevated levels of air pollution over several weeks. Previous research suggests that short-term hospital admissions for respiratory outcomes increased specifically as a result of these fires.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the impact of a wildfire event during pregnancy on birth weight among term infants.

METHODS

Using records for singleton term births delivered to mothers residing in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) during 2001-2005 (n = 886,034), we compared birth weights from pregnancies that took place entirely before or after the wildfire event (n = 747,590) with those where wildfires occurred during the first (n = 60,270), second (n = 39,435), or third (n = 38,739) trimester. The trimester-specific effects of wildfire exposure were estimated using a fixed-effects regression model with several maternal characteristics included as covariates.

RESULTS

Compared with pregnancies before and after the wildfires, mean birth weight was estimated to be 7.0 g lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -11.8, -2.2] when the wildfire occurred during the third trimester, 9.7 g lower when it occurred during the second trimester (95% CI: -14.5, -4.8), and 3.3 g lower when it occurred during the first trimester (95% CI: -7.2, 0.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy during the 2003 Southern California wildfires was associated with slightly reduced average birth weight among infants exposed in utero. The extent and increasing frequency of wildfire events may have implications for infant health and development.

Estimated global mortality attributable to smoke from landscape fires

BACKGROUND

Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality.

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS).

METHODS

Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration-response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM(2.5) from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM(2.5) exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM(2.5) estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration-response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability.

RESULTS

Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000-600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño.

CONCLUSIONS

Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS.

Extreme air pollution events from bushfires and dust storms and their association with mortality in Sydney, Australia 1994-2007

INTRODUCTION

Extreme air pollution events due to bushfire smoke and dust storms are expected to increase as a consequence of climate change, yet little has been published about their population health impacts. We examined the association between air pollution events and mortality in Sydney from 1997 to 2004.

METHODS

Events were defined as days for which the 24h city-wide concentration of PM(10) exceeded the 99th percentile. All events were researched and categorised as being caused by either smoke or dust. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression modelling adjusted for influenza epidemics, same day and lagged temperature and humidity. Reported odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals are for mortality on event days compared with non-event days. The contribution of elevated average temperatures to mortality during smoke events was explored.

RESULTS

There were 52 event days, 48 attributable to bushfire smoke, six to dust and two affected by both. Smoke events were associated with a 5% increase in non-accidental mortality at a lag of 1 day OR (95% confidence interval (CI)) 1.05 (95%CI: 1.00-1.10). When same day temperature was removed from the model, additional same day associations were observed with non-accidental mortality OR 1.05 (95%CI: 1.00-1.09), and with cardiovascular mortality OR (95%CI) 1.10 (95%CI: 1.00-1.20). Dust events were associated with a 15% increase in non-accidental mortality at a lag of 3 days, OR (95%CI) 1.16 (95%CI: 1.03-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude and temporal patterns of association with mortality were different for smoke and dust events. Public health advisories during bushfire smoke pollution episodes should include advice about hot weather in addition to air pollution.

The effects of bushfire smoke on respiratory health

Bushfire smoke has the potential to affect millions of people and is therefore a major public health problem. The air pollutant that increases most significantly as a result of bushfire smoke is particulate matter (PM). During bushfire smoke episodes, PM concentrations are usually much higher than urban background concentrations, at which effects on respiratory health have been observed. The smoke can cover large areas including major cities and even small increases in the risk of respiratory health effects can cause large public health problems. The association between respiratory morbidity and exposure to bushfire smoke is consistent with the associations found with urban air pollution. Although using different methods, all studies looking at Emergency Department presentations in relation to a bushfire smoke event have found associations and most studies have also found an association with hospital admissions. However, only a few studies have distinguished between the effects of bushfire PM(10) (particles with a median aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm) and background PM(10). These studies suggest that PM(10) from bushfire smoke is at least as toxic as urban PM(10), but more research is needed.

Creating an integrated historical record of extreme particulate air pollution events in Australian cities from 1994 to 2007

Epidemiological studies of exposure to vegetation fire smoke are often limited by the availability of accurate exposure data. This paper describes a systematic framework for retrospectively identifying the cause of air pollution events to facilitate a long, multicenter analysis of the public health effects of vegetation fire smoke pollution in Australia. Pollution events were statistically defined as any day at or above the 95th percentile of the 24-hr average concentration of particulate matter (PM). These were identified for six cities from three distinct ecoclimatic regions of Australia. The dates of each event were then crosschecked against a range of information sources, including online newspaper archives, government and research agency records, satellite imagery, and aerosol optical thickness measures to identify the cause for the excess particulate pollution. Pollution events occurred most frequently during summer for cities in subtropical and arid regions and during winter for cities in temperate regions. A cause for high PM on 67% of days examined in the city of Sydney was found, and 94% of these could be attributed to landscape fire smoke. Results were similar for cities in other subtropical and arid locations. Identification of the cause of pollution events was much lower in colder temperate regions where fire activity is less frequent. Bushfires were the most frequent cause of extreme pollution events in cities located in subtropical and arid regions of Australia. Although identification of pollution episodes was greatly improved by the use of multiple sources of information, satellite imagery was the most useful tool for identifying bushfire smoke pollution events.

California wildfires of 2008: coarse and fine particulate matter toxicity

BACKGROUND

During the last week of June 2008, central and northern California experienced thousands of forest and brush fires, giving rise to a week of severe fire-related particulate air pollution throughout the region. California experienced PM(10-2.5) (particulate matter with mass median aerodynamic diameter > 2.5 mum to < 10 mum; coarse ) and PM(2.5) (particulate matter with mass median aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 mum; fine) concentrations greatly in excess of the air quality standards and among the highest values reported at these stations since data have been collected.

OBJECTIVES

These observations prompt a number of questions about the health impact of exposure to elevated levels of PM(10-2.5) and PM(2.5) and about the specific toxicity of PM arising from wildfires in this region.

METHODS

Toxicity of PM(10-2.5) and PM(2.5) obtained during the time of peak concentrations of smoke in the air was determined with a mouse bioassay and compared with PM samples collected under normal conditions from the region during the month of June 2007.

RESULTS

Concentrations of PM were not only higher during the wildfire episodes, but the PM was much more toxic to the lung on an equal weight basis than was PM collected from normal ambient air in the region. Toxicity was manifested as increased neutrophils and protein in lung lavage and by histologic indicators of increased cell influx and edema in the lung.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the wildfire PM contains chemical components toxic to the lung, especially to alveolar macrophages, and they are more toxic to the lung than equal doses of PM collected from ambient air from the same region during a comparable season.